Proxy (climate)

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Reconstructions of global temperature of the past 2000 years, using composite of different proxy methods Temperature reconstruction last two millennia.svg
Reconstructions of global temperature of the past 2000 years, using composite of different proxy methods

In the study of past climates ("paleoclimatology"), climate proxies are preserved physical characteristics of the past that stand in for direct meteorological measurements [1] and enable scientists to reconstruct the climatic conditions over a longer fraction of the Earth's history. Reliable global records of climate only began in the 1880s, and proxies provide the only means for scientists to determine climatic patterns before record-keeping began.

Contents

A large number of climate proxies have been studied from a variety of geologic contexts. Examples of proxies include stable isotope measurements from ice cores, growth rates in tree rings, species composition of sub-fossil pollen in lake sediment or foraminifera in ocean sediments, temperature profiles of boreholes, and stable isotopes and mineralogy of corals and carbonate speleothems. In each case, the proxy indicator has been influenced by a particular seasonal climate parameter (e.g., summer temperature or monsoon intensity) at the time in which they were laid down or grew. Interpretation of climate proxies requires a range of ancillary studies, including calibration of the sensitivity of the proxy to climate and cross-verification among proxy indicators. [2]

Proxies can be combined to produce temperature reconstructions longer than the instrumental temperature record and can inform discussions of global warming and climate history. The geographic distribution of proxy records, just like the instrumental record, is not at all uniform, with more records in the northern hemisphere. [3]

Proxies

In science, it is sometimes necessary to study a variable which cannot be measured directly. This can be done by "proxy methods," in which a variable which correlates with the variable of interest is measured, and then used to infer the value of the variable of interest. Proxy methods are of particular use in the study of the past climate, beyond times when direct measurements of temperatures are available.

Most proxy records have to be calibrated against independent temperature measurements, or against a more directly calibrated proxy, during their period of overlap to estimate the relationship between temperature and the proxy. The longer history of the proxy is then used to reconstruct temperature from earlier periods.

Ice cores

Drilling

Ice Core sample taken from drill. Photo by Lonnie Thompson, Byrd Polar Research Center. Icecore 4x.jpg
Ice Core sample taken from drill. Photo by Lonnie Thompson, Byrd Polar Research Center.

Ice cores are cylindrical samples from within ice sheets in the Greenland, Antarctic, and North American regions. [4] [5] First attempts of extraction occurred in 1956 as part of the International Geophysical Year. As original means of extraction, the U.S. Army's Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory used an 80-foot (24 m)-long modified electrodrill in 1968 at Camp Century, Greenland, and Byrd Station, Antarctica. Their machinery could drill through 15–20 feet (4.6–6.1 m) of ice in 40–50 minutes. From 1300 to 3,000 feet (910 m) in depth, core samples were 4+1⁄4 inches (110 mm) in diameter and 10 to 20 feet (6.1 m) long. Deeper samples of 15 to 20 feet (6.1 m) long were not uncommon. Every subsequent drilling team improves their method with each new effort. [6]

Proxy

d18Oair and dDice for Vostok, Antarctica ice core. Vostok deltaD deltaO18.jpg
δ18Oair and δDice for Vostok, Antarctica ice core.

The ratio between the 16O and 18O water molecule isotopologues in an ice core helps determine past temperatures and snow accumulations. [4] The heavier isotope (18O) condenses more readily as temperatures decrease and falls more easily as precipitation, while the lighter isotope (16O) needs colder conditions to precipitate. The farther north one needs to go to find elevated levels of the 18O isotopologue, the warmer the period.[ further explanation needed ] [7]

In addition to oxygen isotopes, water contains hydrogen isotopes – 1H and 2H, usually referred to as H and D (for deuterium) – that are also used for temperature proxies. Normally, ice cores from Greenland are analyzed for δ18O and those from Antarctica for δ-deuterium.[ why? ] Those cores that analyze for both show a lack of agreement.[ citation needed ] (In the figure, δ18O is for the trapped air, not the ice. δD is for the ice.)

Air bubbles in the ice, which contain trapped greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane, are also helpful in determining past climate changes. [4]

From 1989 to 1992, the European Greenland Ice Core Drilling Project drilled in central Greenland at coordinates 72° 35' N, 37° 38' W. The ices in that core were 3840 years old at a depth of 770 m, 40,000 years old at 2521 m, and 200,000 years old or more at 3029 m bedrock. [8] Ice cores in Antarctica can reveal the climate records for the past 650,000 years. [4]

Location maps and a complete list of U.S. ice core drilling sites can be found on the website for the National Ice Core Laboratory. [5]

Tree rings

Tree rings seen in a cross section of a trunk of a tree. Tree rings.jpg
Tree rings seen in a cross section of a trunk of a tree.

Dendroclimatology is the science of determining past climates from trees, primarily from properties of the annual tree rings. Tree rings are wider when conditions favor growth, narrower when times are difficult. Two primary factors are temperature and humidity / water availability. Other properties of the annual rings, such as maximum latewood density (MXD) have been shown to be better proxies than simple ring width. Using tree rings, scientists have estimated many local climates for hundreds to thousands of years previous. By combining multiple tree-ring studies (sometimes with other climate proxy records), scientists have estimated past regional and global climates (see Temperature record of the past 1000 years).

Fossil leaves

Paleoclimatologists often use leaf teeth to reconstruct mean annual temperature in past climates, and they use leaf size as a proxy for mean annual precipitation. [9] In the case of mean annual precipitation reconstructions, some researchers believe taphonomic processes cause smaller leaves to be overrepresented in the fossil record, which can bias reconstructions. [10] However, recent research suggests that the leaf fossil record may not be significantly biased toward small leaves. [11] New approaches retrieve data such as CO2 content of past atmospheres from fossil leaf stomata and isotope composition, measuring cellular CO2 concentrations. A 2014 study was able to use the carbon-13 isotope ratios to estimate the CO2 amounts of the past 400 million years, the findings hint at a higher climate sensitivity to CO2 concentrations. [12]

Boreholes

Borehole temperatures are used as temperature proxies. Since heat transfer through the ground is slow, temperature measurements at a series of different depths down the borehole, adjusted for the effect of rising heat from inside the Earth, can be "inverted" (a mathematical formula to solve matrix equations) to produce a non-unique series of surface temperature values. The solution is "non-unique" because there are multiple possible surface temperature reconstructions that can produce the same borehole temperature profile. In addition, due to physical limitations, the reconstructions are inevitably "smeared", and become more smeared further back in time. When reconstructing temperatures around 1500 AD, boreholes have a temporal resolution of a few centuries. At the start of the 20th century, their resolution is a few decades; hence they do not provide a useful check on the instrumental temperature record. [13] [14] However, they are broadly comparable. [3] These confirmations have given paleoclimatologists the confidence that they can measure the temperature of 500 years ago. This is concluded by a depth scale of about 492 feet (150 meters) to measure the temperatures from 100 years ago and 1,640 feet (500 meters) to measure the temperatures from 1,000 years ago. [15]

Boreholes have a great advantage over many other proxies in that no calibration is required: they are actual temperatures. However, they record surface temperature not the near-surface temperature (1.5 meter) used for most "surface" weather observations. These can differ substantially under extreme conditions or when there is surface snow. In practice the effect on borehole temperature is believed to be generally small. A second source of error is contamination of the well by groundwater may affect the temperatures, since the water "carries" more modern temperatures with it. This effect is believed to be generally small, and more applicable at very humid sites. [13] It does not apply in ice cores where the site remains frozen all year.

More than 600 boreholes, on all continents, have been used as proxies for reconstructing surface temperatures. [14] The highest concentration of boreholes exist in North America and Europe. Their depths of drilling typically range from 200 to greater than 1,000 meters into the crust of the Earth or ice sheet. [15]

A small number of boreholes have been drilled in the ice sheets; the purity of the ice there permits longer reconstructions. Central Greenland borehole temperatures show "a warming over the last 150 years of approximately 1°C ± 0.2°C preceded by a few centuries of cool conditions. Preceding this was a warm period centered around A.D. 1000, which was warmer than the late 20th century by approximately 1°C." A borehole in the Antarctica icecap shows that the "temperature at A.D. 1 [was] approximately 1°C warmer than the late 20th century". [16]

Borehole temperatures in Greenland were responsible for an important revision to the isotopic temperature reconstruction, revealing that the former assumption that "spatial slope equals temporal slope" was incorrect.

Corals

Coral bleached due to changes in ocean water properties Bleached Coral.png
Coral bleached due to changes in ocean water properties

Ocean coral skeletal rings, or bands, also share paleoclimatological information, similarly to tree rings. In 2002, a report was published on the findings of Drs. Lisa Greer and Peter Swart, associates of University of Miami at the time, in regard to stable oxygen isotopes in the calcium carbonate of coral. Cooler temperatures tend to cause coral to use heavier isotopes in its structure, while warmer temperatures result in more normal oxygen isotopes being built into the coral structure. Denser water salinity also tends to contain the heavier isotope. Greer's coral sample from the Atlantic Ocean was taken in 1994 and dated back to 1935. Greer recalls her conclusions, "When we look at the averaged annual data from 1935 to about 1994, we see it has the shape of a sine wave. It is periodic and has a significant pattern of oxygen isotope composition that has a peak at about every twelve to fifteen years." Surface water temperatures have coincided by also peaking every twelve and a half years. However, since recording this temperature has only been practiced for the last fifty years, correlation between recorded water temperature and coral structure can only be drawn so far back. [17]

Pollen grains

Pollen can be found in sediments. Plants produce pollen in large quantities and it is extremely resistant to decay. It is possible to identify a plant species from its pollen grain. The identified plant community of the area at the relative time from that sediment layer, will provide information about the climatic condition. The abundance of pollen of a given vegetation period or year depends partly on the weather conditions of the previous months, hence pollen density provides information on short-term climatic conditions. [18] The study of prehistoric pollen is palynology.

Dinoflagellate cysts

Cyst of a dinoflagellate Peridinium ovatum Peridinium ovatum cyst.png
Cyst of a dinoflagellate Peridinium ovatum

Dinoflagellates occur in most aquatic environments and during their life cycle, some species produce highly resistant organic-walled cysts for a dormancy period when environmental conditions are not appropriate for growth. Their living depth is relatively shallow (dependent upon light penetration), and closely coupled to diatoms on which they feed. Their distribution patterns in surface waters are closely related to physical characteristics of the water bodies, and nearshore assemblages can also be distinguished from oceanic assemblages. The distribution of dinocysts in sediments has been relatively well documented and has contributed to understanding the average sea-surface conditions that determine the distribution pattern and abundances of the taxa ( [19] ). Several studies, including [20] and [21] have compiled box and gravity cores in the North Pacific analyzing them for palynological content to determine the distribution of dinocysts and their relationships with sea surface temperature, salinity, productivity and upwelling. Similarly, [22] and [23] use a box core at 576.5 m of water depth from 1992 in the central Santa Barbara Basin to determine oceanographic and climatic changes during the past 40 kyr in the area.

Lake and ocean sediments

Similar to their study on other proxies, paleoclimatologists examine oxygen isotopes in the contents of ocean sediments. Likewise, they measure the layers of varve (deposited fine and coarse silt or clay) [24] laminating lake sediments. Lake varves are primarily influenced by:

Diatoms, foraminifera, radiolarians, ostracods, and coccolithophores are examples of biotic proxies for lake and ocean conditions that are commonly used to reconstruct past climates. The distribution of the species of these and other aquatic creatures preserved in the sediments are useful proxies. The optimal conditions for species preserved in the sediment act as clues. Researchers use these clues to reveal what the climate and environment was like when the creatures died. [26] The oxygen isotope ratios in their shells can also be used as proxies for temperature. [27]

Water isotopes and temperature reconstruction

Climate sensitivity sea level and atmospheric carbon dioxide. Hansen et al 2013.png

Ocean water is mostly H216O, with small amounts of HD16O and H218O, where D denotes deuterium, i.e. hydrogen with an extra neutron. In Vienna Standard Mean Ocean Water (VSMOW) the ratio of D to H is 155.76x10−6 and O-18 to O-16 is 2005.2x10−6. Isotope fractionation occurs during changes between condensed and vapour phases: the vapour pressure of heavier isotopes is lower, so vapour contains relatively more of the lighter isotopes and when the vapour condenses the precipitation preferentially contains heavier isotopes. The difference from VSMOW is expressed as δ18O = 1000‰ ; and a similar formula for δD. δ values for precipitation are always negative. [28] The major influence on δ is the difference between ocean temperatures where the moisture evaporated and the place where the final precipitation occurred; since ocean temperatures are relatively stable the δ value mostly reflects the temperature where precipitation occurs. Taking into account that the precipitation forms above the inversion layer, we are left with a linear relation:

δ 18O = aT + b

This is empirically calibrated from measurements of temperature and δ as a = 0.67 ‰/°C for Greenland and 0.76 ‰/°C for East Antarctica. The calibration was initially done on the basis of spatial variations in temperature and it was assumed that this corresponded to temporal variations. [29] More recently, borehole thermometry has shown that for glacial-interglacial variations, a = 0.33 ‰/°C, [30] implying that glacial-interglacial temperature changes were twice as large as previously believed.

A study published in 2017 called the previous methodology to reconstruct paleo ocean temperatures 100 million years ago into question, suggesting it has been relatively stable during that time, much colder. [31]

Membrane lipids

A novel climate proxy obtained from peat (lignites, ancient peat) and soils, membrane lipids known as glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether (GDGT) is helping to study paleo environmental factors, which control relative distribution of differently branched GDGT isomers. The study authors note, "These branched membrane lipids are produced by an as yet unknown group of anaerobic soil bacteria." [32] As of 2018, there is a decade of research demonstrating that in mineral soils the degree of methylation of bacteria (brGDGTs), helps to calculate mean annual air temperatures. This proxy method was used to study the climate of the early Palaeogene, at the Cretaceous–Paleogene boundary, and researchers found that annual air temperatures, over land and at mid-latitude, averaged about 23–29 °C (± 4.7 °C), which is 5–10 °C higher than most previous findings. [33] [34]

Pseudoproxies

The skill of algorithms used to combine proxy records into an overall hemispheric temperature reconstruction may be tested using a technique known as "pseudoproxies". In this method, output from a climate model is sampled at locations corresponding to the known proxy network, and the temperature record produced is compared to the (known) overall temperature of the model. [35]

See also

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Paleoclimatology</span> Study of changes in ancient climate

Paleoclimatology is the scientific study of climates predating the invention of meteorological instruments, when no direct measurement data were available. As instrumental records only span a tiny part of Earth's history, the reconstruction of ancient climate is important to understand natural variation and the evolution of the current climate.

The Younger Dryas, which occurred circa 12,900 to 11,700 years BP, was a return to glacial conditions which temporarily reversed the gradual climatic warming after the Last Glacial Maximum, which lasted from circa 27,000 to 20,000 years BP. The Younger Dryas was the last stage of the Pleistocene epoch that spanned from 2,580,000 to 11,700 years BP and it preceded the current, warmer Holocene epoch. The Younger Dryas was the most severe and longest lasting of several interruptions to the warming of the Earth's climate, and it was preceded by the Late Glacial Interstadial, an interval of relative warmth that lasted from 14,670 to 12,900 BP.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Temperature record of the last 2,000 years</span> Temperature trends in the Common Era

The temperature record of the last 2,000 years is reconstructed using data from climate proxy records in conjunction with the modern instrumental temperature record which only covers the last 170 years at a global scale. Large-scale reconstructions covering part or all of the 1st millennium and 2nd millennium have shown that recent temperatures are exceptional: the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report of 2007 concluded that "Average Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the second half of the 20th century were very likely higher than during any other 50-year period in the last 500 years and likely the highest in at least the past 1,300 years." The curve shown in graphs of these reconstructions is widely known as the hockey stick graph because of the sharp increase in temperatures during the last century. As of 2010 this broad pattern was supported by more than two dozen reconstructions, using various statistical methods and combinations of proxy records, with variations in how flat the pre-20th-century "shaft" appears. Sparseness of proxy records results in considerable uncertainty for earlier periods.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Ice core</span> Cylindrical sample drilled from an ice sheet

An ice core is a core sample that is typically removed from an ice sheet or a high mountain glacier. Since the ice forms from the incremental buildup of annual layers of snow, lower layers are older than upper ones, and an ice core contains ice formed over a range of years. Cores are drilled with hand augers or powered drills; they can reach depths of over two miles (3.2 km), and contain ice up to 800,000 years old.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Eemian</span> Interglacial period which began 130,000 years ago

The Eemian was the interglacial period which began about 130,000 years ago at the end of the Penultimate Glacial Period and ended about 115,000 years ago at the beginning of the Last Glacial Period. It corresponds to Marine Isotope Stage 5e. Although sometimes referred to as the "last interglacial", it was the second-to-latest interglacial period of the current Ice Age, the most recent being the Holocene which extends to the present day. The prevailing Eemian climate was, on average, around 1 to 2 degrees Celsius warmer than that of the Holocene. During the Eemian, the proportion of CO2 in the atmosphere was about 280 parts per million.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Global temperature record</span> Fluctuations of the Earths temperature over time

The global temperature record shows the fluctuations of the temperature of the atmosphere and the oceans through various spans of time. There are numerous estimates of temperatures since the end of the Pleistocene glaciation, particularly during the current Holocene epoch. Some temperature information is available through geologic evidence, going back millions of years. More recently, information from ice cores covers the period from 800,000 years before the present time until now. A study of the paleoclimate covers the time period from 12,000 years ago to the present. Tree rings and measurements from ice cores can give evidence about the global temperature from 1,000-2,000 years before the present until now. The most detailed information exists since 1850, when methodical thermometer-based records began. Modifications on the Stevenson-type screen were made for uniform instrument measurements around 1880.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Greenland ice core project</span> Project to drill through Greenland ice sheet

The Greenland Ice Core Project (GRIP) was a research project organized through the European Science Foundation (ESF). The project ran from 1989 to 1995, with drilling seasons from 1990 to 1992. In 1988, the project was accepted as an ESF-associated program, and the fieldwork was started in Greenland in the summer of 1989.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Carbonate rock</span> Class of sedimentary rock

Carbonate rocks are a class of sedimentary rocks composed primarily of carbonate minerals. The two major types are limestone, which is composed of calcite or aragonite (different crystal forms of CaCO3), and dolomite rock (also known as dolostone), which is composed of mineral dolomite (CaMg(CO3)2). They are usually classified based on texture and grain size. Importantly, carbonate rocks can exist as metamorphic and igneous rocks, too. When recrystallized carbonate rocks are metamorphosed, marble is created. Rare igneous carbonate rocks even exist as intrusive carbonatites and, even rarer, there exists volcanic carbonate lava.

A paleothermometer is a methodology that provides an estimate of the ambient temperature at the time of formation of a natural material. Most paleothermometers are based on empirically-calibrated proxy relationships, such as the tree ring or TEX86 methods. Isotope methods, such as the δ18O method or the clumped-isotope method, are able to provide, at least in theory, direct measurements of temperature.

The Older Dryas was a stadial (cold) period between the Bølling and Allerød interstadials, about 14,000 years Before Present, towards the end of the Pleistocene. Its date is not well defined, with estimates varying by 400 years, but its duration is agreed to have been around 200 years.

Paleoceanography is the study of the history of the oceans in the geologic past with regard to circulation, chemistry, biology, geology and patterns of sedimentation and biological productivity. Paleoceanographic studies using environment models and different proxies enable the scientific community to assess the role of the oceanic processes in the global climate by the re-construction of past climate at various intervals. Paleoceanographic research is also intimately tied to paleoclimatology.

The environmental isotopes are a subset of isotopes, both stable and radioactive, which are the object of isotope geochemistry. They are primarily used as tracers to see how things move around within the ocean-atmosphere system, within terrestrial biomes, within the Earth's surface, and between these broad domains.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Paleolimnology</span> Scientific study of ancient lakes and streams

Paleolimnology is a scientific sub-discipline closely related to both limnology and paleoecology. Paleolimnological studies focus on reconstructing the past environments of inland waters using the geologic record, especially with regard to events such as climatic change, eutrophication, acidification, and internal ontogenic processes.

In geochemistry, paleoclimatology and paleoceanography δ18O or delta-O-18 is a measure of the ratio of stable isotopes oxygen-18 (18O) and oxygen-16 (16O). It is commonly used as a measure of the temperature of precipitation, as a measure of groundwater/mineral interactions, and as an indicator of processes that show isotopic fractionation, like methanogenesis. In paleosciences, 18O:16O data from corals, foraminifera and ice cores are used as a proxy for temperature.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Global meteoric water line</span>

The Global Meteoric Water Line (GMWL) describes the global annual average relationship between hydrogen and oxygen isotope (Oxygen-18 and Deuterium) ratios in natural meteoric waters. The GMWL was first developed in 1961 by Harmon Craig, and has subsequently been widely used to track water masses in environmental geochemistry and hydrogeology.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Pliocene climate</span>

During the Pliocene epoch, the Earth's climate became cooler and drier, as well as more seasonal, marking a transition between the relatively warm Miocene to the cooler Pleistocene.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Roman Warm Period</span> Warm weather period, 250 BC to AD 400

The Roman Warm Period, or Roman Climatic Optimum, was a period of unusually-warm weather in Europe and the North Atlantic that ran from approximately 250 BC to AD 400. Theophrastus wrote that date trees could grow in Greece if they were planted but that they could not set fruit there. That is still the case today, which implies that South Aegean mean summer temperatures in the 4th and the 5th centuries BC were within a degree of modern ones. That and other literary fragments from the time confirm that the Greek climate was basically the same then as around 2000. Tree rings from the Italian Peninsula in the late 3rd century BC indicate a time of mild conditions there around the time of Hannibal's crossing of the Alps with imported elephants in 218 BC.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Medieval Warm Period</span> Time of warm climate in the North Atlantic region lasting from c. 950 to c. 1250

The Medieval Warm Period (MWP), also known as the Medieval Climate Optimum or the Medieval Climatic Anomaly, was a time of warm climate in the North Atlantic region that lasted from c. 950 to c. 1250. Climate proxy records show peak warmth occurred at different times for different regions, which indicate that the MWP was not a globally uniform event. Some refer to the MWP as the Medieval Climatic Anomaly to emphasize that climatic effects other than temperature were also important.

Vital effects are biological impacts on geochemical records. Many marine organisms, ranging from zooplankton to phytoplankton to reef builders, create shells or skeletons from chemical compounds dissolved in seawater. This process, which is also called biomineralization, therefore records the chemical signature of seawater during the time of shell formation. However, different species have different metabolism and physiology, causing them to create their shells in different ways. These biological distinctions cause species to record slightly different chemical signatures in their shells; these differences are known as vital effects.

Global paleoclimate indicators are the proxies sensitive to global paleoclimatic environment changes. They are mostly derived from marine sediments. Paleoclimate indicators derived from terrestrial sediments, on the other hand, are commonly influenced by local tectonic movements and paleogeographic variations. Factors governing the earth climate system include plate tectonics, which controls the configuration of continents, the interplay between the atmosphere and the ocean, and the earth's orbital characteristics. Global paleoclimate indicators are established based on the information extracted from the analyses of geologic materials, including biological, geochemical and mineralogical data preserved in marine sediments. Indicators are generally grouped into three categories; paleontological, geochemical and lithological.

References

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  35. ↑ Mann, M. E.; Rutherford, S. (31 May 2002), "Climate reconstruction using 'Pseudoproxies'", Geophysical Research Letters, 29 (10): 139–1–139–4, Bibcode:2002GeoRL..29.1501M, doi: 10.1029/2001GL014554

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