Dendroclimatology

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Variation of tree ring width translated into summer temperature anomalies for the past 7000 years, based on samples from holocene deposits on Yamal Peninsula and Siberian now living conifers. Yamal50.gif
Variation of tree ring width translated into summer temperature anomalies for the past 7000 years, based on samples from holocene deposits on Yamal Peninsula and Siberian now living conifers.

Dendroclimatology is the science of determining past climates from trees (primarily properties of the annual tree rings). Tree rings are wider when conditions favor growth, narrower when times are difficult. Other properties of the annual rings, such as maximum latewood density (MXD) have been shown to be better proxies than simple ring width. Using tree rings, scientists have estimated many local climates for hundreds to thousands of years previous. By combining multiple tree-ring studies (sometimes with other climate proxy records), scientists have estimated past regional and global climates.

Contents

Advantages

Tree rings are especially useful as climate proxies in that they can be well-dated via dendrochronology, i.e. matching of the rings from sample to sample. This allows extension backwards in time using deceased tree samples, even using samples from buildings or from archeological digs. Another advantage of tree rings is that they are clearly demarked in annual increments, as opposed to other proxy methods such as boreholes. Furthermore, tree rings respond to multiple climatic effects (temperature, moisture, cloudiness), so that various aspects of climate (not just temperature) can be studied. However, this can be a double-edged sword.

Limitations

Along with the advantages of dendroclimatology are some limitations: confounding factors, geographic coverage, annular resolution, and collection difficulties. The field has developed various methods to partially adjust for these challenges.[ citation needed ]

Confounding factors

There are multiple climate and non-climate factors as well as nonlinear effects that impact tree ring width. Methods to isolate single factors (of interest) include botanical studies to calibrate growth influences and sampling of "limiting stands" (those expected to respond mostly to the variable of interest).

Climate factors

Climate factors that affect trees include temperature, precipitation, sunlight, and wind. To differentiate among these factors, scientists collect information from "limiting stands." An example of a limiting stand is the upper elevation treeline: here, trees are expected to be more affected by temperature variation (which is "limited") than precipitation variation (which is in excess). Conversely, lower elevation treelines are expected to be more affected by precipitation changes than temperature variation. This is not a perfect work-around as multiple factors still impact trees even at the "limiting stand," but it helps. In theory, collection of samples from nearby limiting stands of different types (e.g. upper and lower treelines on the same mountain) should allow mathematical solution for multiple climate factors[ citation needed ].

Non-climate factors

Non-climate factors include soil, tree age, fire, tree-to-tree competition, genetic differences, logging or other human disturbance, herbivore impact (particularly sheep grazing), pest outbreaks, disease, and CO2 concentration. For factors which vary randomly over space (tree to tree or stand to stand), the best solution is to collect sufficient data (more samples) to compensate for confounding noise. Tree age is corrected for with various statistical methods: either fitting spline curves to the overall tree record or using similar aged trees for comparison over different periods (regional curve standardization). Careful examination and site selection helps to limit some confounding effects, for example picking sites undisturbed by modern man.[ citation needed ]

Non-linear effects

In general, climatologists assume a linear dependence of ring width on the variable of interest (e.g. moisture). However, if the variable changes enough, response may level off or even turn opposite. The home gardener knows that one can underwater or overwater a house plant. In addition, it is possible that interaction effects may occur (for example "temperature times precipitation" may affect growth as well as temperature and precipitation on their own. Also, the "limiting stand" helps somewhat to isolate the variable of interest. For instance, at the upper treeline, where the tree is "cold limited", it's unlikely that nonlinear effects of high temperature ("inverted quadratic") will have a numerically significant impact on ring width over the course of a growing season.[ citation needed ]

Botanical inferences to correct for confounding factors

Botanical studies can help to estimate the impact of confounding variables and in some cases guide corrections for them. These experiments may be either ones where growth variables are all controlled (e.g. in a greenhouse [ citation needed ]), partially controlled (e.g. FACE [Free Airborne Concentration Enhancement] experiments—add ref), or where conditions in nature are monitored. In any case, the important thing is that multiple growth factors are carefully recorded to determine what impacts growth. (Insert Fennoscandanavia paper reference[ citation needed ]). With this information, ring width response can be more accurately understood and inferences from historic (unmonitored) tree rings become more certain. In concept, this is like the limiting stand principle, but it is more quantitative—like a calibration.

Divergence Problematics

The divergence problem is the disagreement between the temperatures measured by the thermometers (instrumental temperatures) on one side, and the temperatures reconstructed from the latewood density or width of tree rings on the other side, at many treeline sites in northern forests.[ citation needed ]

While the rendering and analysis of data from thermometer records largely suggest a substantial warming trend, tree rings from these particular sites do not display a corresponding change in their maximum latewood density or, in some cases, their width. This does not apply to all such studies. [2] Where this applies, a temperature trend extracted from tree rings alone would not show any substantial warming. The temperature graphs calculated from instrumental temperatures and from these tree ring proxies thus "diverge" from one another since the 1950s, which is the origin of the term. This divergence raises obvious questions of whether other, unrecognized divergences have occurred in the past, prior to the era of thermometers. [3] There is evidence suggesting that the divergence is caused by human activities, and so confined to the recent past, but use of affected proxies can lead to overestimation of past temperatures, understating the current warming trend. There is continuing research into explanations and ways to reconcile this the discrepancy between analysis of tree ring data and thermometer based data. [2]

Geographic coverage

Trees do not cover the Earth. Polar and marine climates cannot be estimated from tree rings. In perhumid tropical regions, Australia and southern Africa, trees generally grow all year round and don't show clear annual rings. In some forest areas, the tree growth is too much influenced by multiple factors (no "limiting stand") to allow clear climate reconstruction[ example needed ]. The coverage difficulty is dealt with by acknowledging it and by using other proxies (e.g. ice cores, corals) in difficult areas. In some cases it can be shown that the parameter of interest (temperature, precipitation, etc.) varies similarly from area to area, for example by looking at patterns in the instrumental record. Then one is justified in extending the dendroclimatology inferences to areas where no suitable tree ring samples are obtainable.[ citation needed ]

Annular resolution

Tree rings show the impact on growth over an entire growing season. Climate changes deep in the dormant season (winter) will not be recorded. In addition, different times of the growing season may be more important than others (i.e. May versus September) for ring width. However, in general the ring width is used to infer the overall climate change during the corresponding year (an approximation). Another problem is "memory" or autocorrelation. A stressed tree may take a year or two to recover from a hard season. This problem can be dealt with by more complex modeling (a "lag" term in the regression) or by reducing the skill estimates of chronologies.

Collection difficulties

Tree rings must be obtained from nature, frequently from remote regions. This means that special efforts are needed to map sites properly. In addition, samples must be collected in difficult (often sloping terrain) conditions. Generally, tree rings are collected using a hand-held borer device, that requires skill to get a good sample. The best samples come from felling a tree and sectioning it. However, this requires more danger and does damage to the forest. It may not be allowed in certain areas, particularly with the oldest trees in undisturbed sites (which are the most interesting scientifically). As with all experimentalists, dendroclimatologists must, at times, decide to make the best of imperfect data, rather than resample. This tradeoff is made more difficult, because sample collection (in the field) and analysis (in the lab) may be separated significantly in time and space. These collection challenges mean that data gathering is not as simple or cheap as conventional laboratory science.

Other measurements

Initial work focused on measuring the tree ring width—this is simple to measure and can be related to climate parameters. But the annual growth of the tree leaves other traces. In particular maximum latewood density (MXD) is another metric used for estimating environmental variables. [4] It is, however, harder to measure. Other properties (e.g. isotope or chemical trace analysis) have also been tried most notably by L. M. Libby in her 1974 paper "Temperature Dependence of Isotope Ratios in Tree Rings". [5] In theory, multiple measurements on the same ring will allow differentiation of confounding factors (e.g. precipitation and temperature). However, most studies are still based on ring widths at limiting stands.

Measuring radiocarbon concentrations in tree rings has proven to be useful in recreating past sunspot activity, with data now extending back over 11,000 years. [6]

See also

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate</span> Statistics of weather conditions in a given region over long periods

Climate is the long-term weather pattern in a region, typically averaged over 30 years. More rigorously, it is the mean and variability of meteorological variables over a time spanning from months to millions of years. Some of the meteorological variables that are commonly measured are temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind, and precipitation. In a broader sense, climate is the state of the components of the climate system, including the atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, lithosphere and biosphere and the interactions between them. The climate of a location is affected by its latitude, longitude, terrain, altitude, land use and nearby water bodies and their currents.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Wood</span> Fibrous material from trees or other plants

Wood is a structural tissue found in the stems and roots of trees and other woody plants. It is an organic material – a natural composite of cellulose fibers that are strong in tension and embedded in a matrix of lignin that resists compression. Wood is sometimes defined as only the secondary xylem in the stems of trees, or more broadly to include the same type of tissue elsewhere, such as in the roots of trees or shrubs. In a living tree it performs a support function, enabling woody plants to grow large or to stand up by themselves. It also conveys water and nutrients between the leaves, other growing tissues, and the roots. Wood may also refer to other plant materials with comparable properties, and to material engineered from wood, woodchips, or fiber.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Dendrochronology</span> Method of dating based on the analysis of patterns of tree rings

Dendrochronology is the scientific method of dating tree rings to the exact year they were formed in a tree. As well as dating them, this can give data for dendroclimatology, the study of climate and atmospheric conditions during different periods in history from the wood of old trees. Dendrochronology derives from the Ancient Greek dendron, meaning "tree", khronos, meaning "time", and -logia, "the study of".

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Paleoclimatology</span> Study of changes in ancient climate

Paleoclimatology is the scientific study of climates predating the invention of meteorological instruments, when no direct measurement data were available. As instrumental records only span a tiny part of Earth's history, the reconstruction of ancient climate is important to understand natural variation and the evolution of the current climate.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climatology</span> Scientific study of climate, defined as weather conditions averaged over a period of time

Climatology or climate science is the scientific study of Earth's climate, typically defined as weather conditions averaged over a period of at least 30 years. Climate concerns the atmospheric condition during an extended to indefinite period of time; weather is the condition of the atmosphere during a relative brief period of time. The main topics of research are the study of climate variability, mechanisms of climate changes and modern climate change. This topic of study is regarded as part of the atmospheric sciences and a subdivision of physical geography, which is one of the Earth sciences. Climatology includes some aspects of oceanography and biogeochemistry.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Temperature record of the last 2,000 years</span> Temperature trends in the Common Era

The temperature record of the last 2,000 years is reconstructed using data from climate proxy records in conjunction with the modern instrumental temperature record which only covers the last 170 years at a global scale. Large-scale reconstructions covering part or all of the 1st millennium and 2nd millennium have shown that recent temperatures are exceptional: the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report of 2007 concluded that "Average Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the second half of the 20th century were very likely higher than during any other 50-year period in the last 500 years and likely the highest in at least the past 1,300 years." The curve shown in graphs of these reconstructions is widely known as the hockey stick graph because of the sharp increase in temperatures during the last century. As of 2010 this broad pattern was supported by more than two dozen reconstructions, using various statistical methods and combinations of proxy records, with variations in how flat the pre-20th-century "shaft" appears. Sparseness of proxy records results in considerable uncertainty for earlier periods.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Quantitative research</span> All procedures for the numerical representation of empirical facts

Quantitative research is a research strategy that focuses on quantifying the collection and analysis of data. It is formed from a deductive approach where emphasis is placed on the testing of theory, shaped by empiricist and positivist philosophies.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Speleothem</span> Structure formed in a cave by the deposition of minerals from water

A speleothem is a geological formation by mineral deposits that accumulate over time in natural caves. Speleothems most commonly form in calcareous caves due to carbonate dissolution reactions. They can take a variety of forms, depending on their depositional history and environment. Their chemical composition, gradual growth, and preservation in caves make them useful paleoclimatic proxies.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Tree line</span> Edge of the habitat at which trees are capable of growing

The tree line is the edge of a habitat at which trees are capable of growing and beyond which they are not. It is found at high elevations and high latitudes. Beyond the tree line, trees cannot tolerate the environmental conditions. The tree line is sometimes distinguished from a lower timberline, which is the line below which trees form a forest with a closed canopy.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Proxy (climate)</span> Preserved physical characteristics allowing reconstruction of past climatic conditions

In the study of past climates ("paleoclimatology"), climate proxies are preserved physical characteristics of the past that stand in for direct meteorological measurements and enable scientists to reconstruct the climatic conditions over a longer fraction of the Earth's history. Reliable global records of climate only began in the 1880s, and proxies provide the only means for scientists to determine climatic patterns before record-keeping began.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Global temperature record</span> Fluctuations of the Earths temperature over time

The global temperature record shows the fluctuations of the temperature of the atmosphere and the oceans through various spans of time. There are numerous estimates of temperatures since the end of the Pleistocene glaciation, particularly during the current Holocene epoch. Some temperature information is available through geologic evidence, going back millions of years. More recently, information from ice cores covers the period from 800,000 years before the present time until now. A study of the paleoclimate covers the time period from 12,000 years ago to the present. Tree rings and measurements from ice cores can give evidence about the global temperature from 1,000-2,000 years before the present until now. The most detailed information exists since 1850, when methodical thermometer-based records began. Modifications on the Stevenson-type screen were made for uniform instrument measurements around 1880.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Dendroarchaeology</span>

Dendroarchaeology is a term used for the study of vegetation remains, old buildings, artifacts, furniture, art and musical instruments using the techniques of dendrochronology. It refers to dendrochronological research of wood from the past regardless of its current physical context. This form of dating is the most accurate and precise absolute dating method available to archaeologists, as the last ring that grew is the first year the tree could have been incorporated into an archaeological structure.

A paleothermometer is a methodology that provides an estimate of the ambient temperature at the time of formation of a natural material. Most paleothermometers are based on empirically-calibrated proxy relationships, such as the tree ring or TEX86 methods. Isotope methods, such as the δ18O method or the clumped-isotope method, are able to provide, at least in theory, direct measurements of temperature.

In geochemistry, paleoclimatology and paleoceanography δ18O or delta-O-18 is a measure of the deviation in ratio of stable isotopes oxygen-18 (18O) and oxygen-16 (16O). It is commonly used as a measure of the temperature of precipitation, as a measure of groundwater/mineral interactions, and as an indicator of processes that show isotopic fractionation, like methanogenesis. In paleosciences, 18O:16O data from corals, foraminifera and ice cores are used as a proxy for temperature.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Hockey stick graph (global temperature)</span> Graph in climate science

Hockey stick graphs present the global or hemispherical mean temperature record of the past 500 to 2000 years as shown by quantitative climate reconstructions based on climate proxy records. These reconstructions have consistently shown a slow long term cooling trend changing into relatively rapid warming in the 20th century, with the instrumental temperature record by 2000 exceeding earlier temperatures.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Sclerochronology</span>

Sclerochronology is the study of periodic physical and chemical features in the hard tissues of animals that grow by accretion, including invertebrates and coralline red algae, and the temporal context in which they formed. It is particularly useful in the study of marine paleoclimatology. The term was coined in 1974 following pioneering work on nuclear test atolls by Knutson and Buddemeier and comes from the three Greek words skleros (hard), chronos (time) and logos (science), which together refer to the use of the hard parts of living organisms to order events in time. It is, therefore, a form of stratigraphy. Sclerochronology focuses primarily upon growth patterns reflecting annual, monthly, fortnightly, tidal, daily, and sub-daily (ultradian) increments of time.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Divergence problem</span>

The divergence problem is an anomaly from the field of dendroclimatology, the study of past climate through observations of old trees, primarily the properties of their annual growth rings. It is the disagreement between instrumental temperatures and the temperatures reconstructed from latewood densities or, in some cases, from the widths of tree rings in far northern forests.

The International Tree-Ring Data Bank (ITRDB) is a data repository for tree ring measurements that has been maintained since 1990 by the United States' National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Paleoclimatology Program and World Data Center for Paleoclimatology. The ITRDB was initially established by Hal Fritts through the Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research at the University of Arizona, with a grant from the US National Science Foundation, following the First International Workshop on Dendrochronology in 1974. The ITRDB accepts all tree ring data with sufficient metadata to be uploaded, but its founding focus was on tree ring measurements intended for climatic studies.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Paleohydrology</span> Study of hydrology over geological time

Paleohydrology, or palaeohydrology, is the scientific study of the movement, distribution, and quality of water on Earth during previous periods of its history. The discipline uses indirect evidence to infer changes in deposition rates, the existence of flooding, changes in sea levels, changes in groundwater levels and the erosion of rocks. It also deals with alterations in the floral and faunal assemblages which have come about in previous periods because of changes in hydrology.

Rosanne D'Arrigo is a professor at Lamont–Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University known for her research into climate change using dendrochronology, or dating based on tree rings.

References

  1. "IPAE RAS Dendrochronology group research results summary". Archived from the original on January 10, 2010.
  2. 1 2 D'Arrigo, Rosanne; Wilson, Rob; Liepert, Beate; Cherubini, Paolo (2008). "On the 'Divergence Problem' in Northern Forests: A review of the tree-ring evidence and possible causes" (PDF). Global and Planetary Change. 60 (3–4): 289–305. Bibcode:2008GPC....60..289D. doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2007.03.004. S2CID   3537918. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2010-01-19. Retrieved 2009-10-02.
  3. Surface temperature reconstructions for the last 2,000 years. Washington, D.C: National Academies Press. 2006. doi:10.17226/11676. ISBN   0-309-10225-1.
  4. Luckman, Brian H. "Tree Rings as Temperature Proxies" (PDF). 2008 Gussow-Nuna Geoscience Conference. cspg.org. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2014-03-27. Retrieved 2012-05-18.
  5. Libby & Pandolfi 1974
  6. Solanki, S.K.; Usoskin, I.G.; Kromer, B.; Schüssler, M.; Beer, J. (2004). "Unusual activity of the Sun during recent decades compared to the previous 11,000 years". Nature. 431 (7012): 1084–1087. Bibcode:2004Natur.431.1084S. doi:10.1038/nature02995. PMID   15510145. S2CID   4373732.