Climate change vulnerability (or climate vulnerability or climate risk vulnerability) is a concept that describes how strongly people or ecosystems are likely to be affected by climate change. It is defined as the "propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected" by climate change. It can apply to humans and also to natural systems (or ecosystems). [1] : 12 Related concepts include climate sensitivity and the ability, or lack thereof, to cope and adapt. [1] : 5 Vulnerability is a component of climate risk. Vulnerability differs within communities and across societies, regions, and countries, and can increase or decrease over time. [1] : 12
Vulnerability of people and ecosystems with regards to climate change effects is driven by certain unsustainable development patterns such as "unsustainable ocean and land use, inequity, marginalization, historical and ongoing patterns of inequity such as colonialism, and governance". [1] : 12 Therefore, vulnerability is higher in some locations than in others. Certain aspects within a region increase vulnerability, for example poverty, bad governance and violent conflict. Some types of livelihoods are regarded as particularly climate-sensitive, resulting in a higher level of climate change vulnerability. These include for example smallholder farmers, pastoralists and fishing communities. [1] : 12
Vulnerability can be grouped into two overlapping categories: These are economic vulnerability, based on socioeconomic factors, and geographic vulnerability. People who are more vulnerable than others include for example people with low incomes, indigenous peoples, women, children, the elderly.
There are several tools available to assess climate vulnerability. Because climate vulnerability disproportionately affects low-income countries, climate vulnerability has become an important tool in international negotiations about climate change adaptation, climate finance and other international policy making activities.
Climate change vulnerability is defined as the "propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected" by climate change. It can apply to humans but also to natural systems (ecosystems), and both are interdependent. [1] : 12 Vulnerability is a component of climate risk. Vulnerability will be higher if the capacity to cope and adapt is low. [1] : 5
Climate vulnerability can include a wide variety of different meanings, situations, and contexts in climate change research, and has been a central concept in academic research since 2005. [2] The concept was defined in the third IPCC report in 2007 as "the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes". [3] : 89 The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report in 2022 stated that "approaches to analysing and assessing vulnerability have evolved since previous IPCC assessments". [1] : 5
In the context of political economy, vulnerability is defined as “the state of individuals, groups or communities in terms of their ability to cope with and adapt to any external stress placed on their livelihoods and well-being.” [4] Vulnerability is a relative concept, not an absolute one, meaning that "some people are less or more susceptible than others, at different times and places". [4]
Research in this area focuses on analysing the factors that "put people and places at risk and reduce capacity to respond". [5]
Vulnerability can be grouped into two overlapping categories: economic vulnerability, based on socioeconomic factors, and geographic vulnerability. Neither are mutually exclusive.
At its basic level, a community that is economically vulnerable is one that is ill-prepared for the effects of climate change because it lacks the needed financial resources. [6] Preparing a climate resilient society will require huge[ quantify ] investments in infrastructure, city planning, engineering sustainable energy sources, and preparedness systems.[ clarification needed ] From a global perspective, it is more likely that people living at or below poverty will be affected the most by climate change and are thus the most vulnerable, because they will have the least amount of resource dollars to invest in resiliency infrastructure. They will also have the least amount of resource dollars for cleanup efforts after more frequently occurring natural climate change related disasters. [7]
Vulnerability of ecosystems and people to climate change is driven by certain unsustainable development patterns such as "unsustainable ocean and land use, inequity, marginalization, historical and ongoing patterns of inequity such as colonialism, and governance". [1] : 12 Therefore, vulnerability is higher in some locations than in others. Certain aspects within a region increase vulnerability, for example poverty, governance challenges and violent conflict. Some types of livelihoods are regarded as particularly climate-sensitive, resulting in a higher level of climate change vulnerability. These include for example smallholder farmers, pastoralists and fishing communities. [1] : 12
Societal vulnerability to climate change is largely dependent on development status. [8] : 336 Developing countries lack the necessary financial resources to relocate those living in low-lying coastal zones, making them more vulnerable to climate change than developed countries. [9] : 317
A second definition of vulnerability relates to geographic vulnerability. The most geographically vulnerable locations to climate change are those that will be impacted by side effects of natural hazards, such as rising sea levels and by dramatic changes in ecosystem services, including access to food. Island nations are usually noted as more vulnerable but communities that rely heavily on a sustenance based lifestyle are also at greater risk. [10]
Vulnerable communities tend to have one or more of these characteristics: [11] food insecure, water is scarce, delicate marine ecosystem, fish dependent, small island community.
Around the world, climate change affects rural communities that heavily depend on their agriculture and natural resources for their livelihood. Increased frequency and severity of climate events disproportionately affects women, rural, dryland, and island communities. [12] This leads to more drastic changes in their lifestyles and forces them to adapt to this change. It is becoming more important for local and government agencies to create strategies to react to change and adapt infrastructure to meet the needs of those impacted. Various organizations work to create adaptation, mitigation, and resilience plans that will help rural and at risk communities around the world that depend on the earth's resources to survive. [13]
It has been estimated in 2021 that "approximately 3.3 to 3.6 billion people live in contexts that are highly vulnerable to climate change". [1] : 12
The vulnerability of ecosystems and people to climate change is not the same everywhere: there are marked differences among and within regions (see regions that are particularly vulnerable below). [1] : 12 Vulnerability can also increase or decrease over time. [1] : 5
People who are more vulnerable to the effects of climate change than others include for example people with low incomes, indigenous peoples, women, children, the elderly. For example, when looking at the effects of climate change on human health, a report published in The Lancet found that the greatest impact tends to fall on the most vulnerable people such as the poor, women, children, the elderly, people with pre-existing health concerns, other minorities and outdoor workers. [14] : 13
Climate change does not affect people within communities in the same way. It can have a bigger impact on vulnerable groups such as women, the elderly, religious minorities and refugees than on others. [15]
There can be "structural deficits related to social, economic, cultural, political, and institutional conditions" which would explain why some parts of the population are impacted more than others. [5] This applies for example to climate-related risks to household water security for women in remote rural regions in Burkina Faso [5] or the urban poor in sub-Saharan Africa. [4]
Vulnerability for people of a certain gender or age can be caused by "systemic reproduction of historical legacies of inequality", for example as part of "(post)colonial, (post)apartheid, and poverty discrimination". [4] Social vulnerability of people can be related to aspects that make people different from one another (gender, class, race, age, etc.), and also the situational variables (where they live, their health, who lives with them in the household, how much they earn). [4]
Vulnerability can be reduced through climate change adaptation measures. [1] : 5 For this reason, vulnerability is often framed in dialogue with climate change adaptation. Furthermore, measures that reduce poverty, gender inequality, bad governance and violent conflict would also reduce vulnerability. And finally, vulnerability would be reduced for everyone if decisive action on climate change was taken (climate change mitigation) so that the effects of climate change are less severe.[ citation needed ]
Equity is another essential component of vulnerability and is closely tied to issues of environmental justice and climate justice. As the most vulnerable communities are likely to be the most heavily impacted, a climate justice movement is coalescing in response. There are many aspects of climate justice that relate to vulnerability and resiliency. The frameworks are similar to other types of justice movements and include contractarianism which attempts to allocate the most benefits for the poor, utilitarianism which seeks to find the most benefits for the most people, egalitarianism which attempts to reduce inequality, and libertarianism which emphasizes a fair share of burden but also individual freedoms. [29]
Examples of climate justices approach can be seen by the work done by the United States government on both federal and local levels. On a federal level, The Environmental Protection Agency works toward the goals of Executive Order 12898, [30] Federal Actions to Address Environmental Justice in Minority Populations and Low-Income Populations. E.O 12898 states the goals of implementing federal environmental justice initiatives that work toward aiding minority and low-income communities that suffer from disproportionate environmental or human health impacts. To alleviate environmental and health challenges within many American communities the U.S Environmental Protection Agency has implemented projects [31] region by region to ensure the development of environmental justice. These developments include but are not limited to population vulnerability, green space development locally as well as federally, and the reevaluation of environmentally disproportionate health burdens.
Vulnerability assessment is important because it provides information that can be used to develop management actions in response to climate change. [36] Climate change vulnerability assessments and tools are available at all scales. Macro-scale vulnerability assessment often uses indices. Modelling and participatory approaches are also in use. Global vulnerability assessments are based on spatial mapping using aggregated data for the regional or national level. [37] : 1195–1199
Assessments are also done at sub-national and sectoral level, and also increasingly for cities on an urban district or neighbourhood scale. Vulnerability assessment is also done for local communities to evaluate where and how communities and livelihoods are vulnerable to climate change. Studies can vary widely in scope and scale— for example the World Bank and Ministry of Economy of Fiji commissioned a report for the whole country in 2017-18 [38] while the Rochester, New York commissioned a much more local report for the city in 2018. [39] Or, for example, NOAA Fisheries commissioned Climate Vulnerability assessments for marine fishers in the United States. [40] In some cases vulnerability assessment is done in advance of preparing local climate adaptation plans or risk management plans. [41]
Global indices for climate change vulnerability include the ND-GAIN Country Index, which measures national climate vulnerability globally, INFORM Risk Index and the WorldRiskIndex, which include social vulnerability indices. [42] Indicator approaches are also used at national and sub-national levels. They use a composite index of many individual quantifiable indicators. To generate the index value or 'score', most often a simple average is calculated across a set of standardized values. However, sometimes weighting is done according what are thought to be the most important determinants of vulnerability.
Climate vulnerability tracking starts identifying the relevant information, preferably open access, produced by state or international bodies at the scale of interest. Then a further effort to make the vulnerability information freely accessible to all development actors is required. [43] Vulnerability tracking has many applications. It constitutes an indicator for the monitoring and evaluation of programs and projects for resilience and adaptation to climate change. Vulnerability tracking is also a decision making tool in regional and national adaptation policies. [43]
Similarly as for climate risk assessment, tools for vulnerability assessment vary depending on the sector, the scale at which the study is being carried out, and the entity or system which is thought to vulnerable. Modelling and other participatory tools include WEAP for understanding water resource vulnerabilities and assessing adaptation options. The Vulnerability Sourcebook is a guide for practical and scientific knowledge on vulnerability assessment. [44] Climate vulnerability mapping is also used to understand which areas are the most geographically vulnerable. A systematic review published in 2019 found 84 studies focused on the use of mapping to communicate and do analysis of climate vulnerability. [45]
All regions of the world are vulnerable to climate change but to a different degree. With high confidence, researchers concluded in 2001 that developing countries would tend to be more vulnerable to climate change than developed countries. [46] : 957–958 Based on development trends in 2001, scientists have found that few developing countries would have the capacity to efficiently adapt to climate change. [47] : 957 This was partly due to their low adaptive capacity and the high costs of adaptation in proportion to their GDP.
In comparison, the climate vulnerability of Europe is lower than in developing countries. This was attributed to Europe's high GNP, stable growth, stable population, and well-developed political, institutional, and technological support systems. [48] : 643
Examples for vulnerability and adaptive capacity by region include:
Kerkouane or Kerkuane is the site of an ancient Punic city in north-eastern Tunisia, near Cape Bon. Kerkouane was one of the most important Punic cities, with Carthage, Hadrumetum, and Utica. This Phoenician city was probably abandoned during the First Punic War and was not rebuilt by the Romans. It had existed for almost 400 years.
The Diawling National Park lies in south west Mauritania around the Senegal River delta. During the rainy season, much of the park consists of large lakes. It is known for having over 220 species of identified birds, including pelicans, black storks, and flamingos, and also for its fish.
The economic analysis of climate change explains how economic thinking, tools and techniques are applied to calculate the magnitude and distribution of damage caused by climate change. It also informs the policies and approaches for mitigation and adaptation to climate change from global to household scales. This topic is also inclusive of alternative economic approaches, including ecological economics and degrowth. In a cost–benefit analysis, the trade offs between climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation are made explicit. Cost–benefit analyses of climate change are produced using integrated assessment models (IAMs), which incorporate aspects of the natural, social, and economic sciences. The total economic impacts from climate change are difficult to estimate, but increase for higher temperature changes.
Waterborne diseases are conditions caused by pathogenic micro-organisms that are transmitted by water. These diseases can be spread while bathing, washing, drinking water, or by eating food exposed to contaminated water. They are a pressing issue in rural areas amongst developing countries all over the world. While diarrhea and vomiting are the most commonly reported symptoms of waterborne illness, other symptoms can include skin, ear, respiratory, or eye problems. Lack of clean water supply, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) are major causes for the spread of waterborne diseases in a community. Therefore, reliable access to clean drinking water and sanitation is the main method to prevent waterborne diseases.
Climate change adaptation is the process of adjusting to the effects of climate change. These can be both current or expected impacts. Adaptation aims to moderate or avoid harm for people. It also aims to exploit opportunities. Humans may also intervene to help adjustment for natural systems. There are many adaptation strategies or options. They can help manage impacts and risks to people and nature. Adaptation actions can be classified in four ways: infrastructural and technological; institutional; behavioural and cultural; and nature-based options.
Adaptive capacity relates to the capacity of systems, institutions, humans and other organisms to adjust to potential damage, to take advantage of opportunities, or to respond to consequences. In the context of ecosystems, adaptive capacity is determined by genetic diversity of species, biodiversity of particular ecosystems in specific landscapes or biome regions. In the context of coupled socio-ecological social systems, adaptive capacity is commonly associated with the following characteristics: Firstly, the ability of institutions and networks to learn, and store knowledge and experience. Secondly, the creative flexibility in decision making, transitioning and problem solving. And thirdly, the existence of power structures that are responsive and consider the needs of all stakeholders.
Climate risk is the potential for negative consequences for human or ecological systems from the impacts of climate change. It refers to risk assessments based on formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to these impacts and how societal constraints shape adaptation options. However, the science also recognises different values and preferences around risk, and the importance of risk perception.
Tanbi Wetland Complex is a wetland reserve in the Gambia outside of Banjul which was established in 2001.
Kalissaye Avifaunal Reserve (KAR) is a small nature reserve in Senegal, located at the mouth of Kalissaye Pond in the middle of the Casamance River.
Saloum Delta National Park or Parc National du Delta du Saloum in Senegal, is a 760-square-kilometre (190,000-acre) national park. Established in 1976, it is situated within the Saloum Delta at the juncture of the Saloum River and the North Atlantic.
The Island of Saint-Louis is the historic part of the city of Saint-Louis in Senegal. In 2000, it was inscribed by the UNESCO on the World Heritage list.
The Cacheu River Mangroves Natural Park is a national park situated on the Cacheu River in Guinea-Bissau. It was established on 1 December 2000. This site is 886 km2. The park has been designated as a Ramsar site since 2015.
The Marromeu Game Reserve is a protected swath of 1,500 square kilometres (580 sq mi) of floodplain in the Zambezi, the only such area along the river. The reserve is characterized by vast grasslands and numerous rivers and streams. The African elephant, Lichtenstein's hartebeest, sable antelope, eland, burchell's zebra, hippopotamus, waterbuck, and reedbuck are all found there. Wild dogs, lions, leopards, cheetahs, and spotted hyenas are all predators. The Marromeu National Park is actively working to repopulate the area with buffalo after their population dwindled to 30,000. From the border of the buffalo reserve into the neighbouring Cheringoma highlands, a hunting concession of 8,252 square kilometres surrounds the Marromeu Complex, which consists of the 1,500-square-kilometer Marromeu Special Reserve. It was dedicated on 1 January 1969. It is located near Beira.
The effects of climate change on human health are increasingly well studied and quantified. Rising temperatures and changes in weather patterns are increasing the frequency and severity of heat waves, wildfires, droughts, floods, landslides, hurricanes, and other causes of injury and illness. Heat waves and extreme weather events have a big impact on health both directly and indirectly. Direct effects of exposure to high and extended temperatures include illness, reduced labour capacity for outdoor workers, and heat-related mortality.
Loss and damage is a concept to describe results from the adverse effects of climate change and how to deal with them. There has been slow progress on implementing mitigation and adaptation. Some losses and damages are already occurring, and further loss and damage is unavoidable. There is a distinction between economic losses and non-economic losses. The main difference between the two is that non-economic losses involve things that are not commonly traded in markets.
Climate resilience is defined as the "capacity of social, economic and ecosystems to cope with a hazardous event or trend or disturbance". This is done by "responding or reorganising in ways that maintain their essential function, identity and structure while also maintaining the capacity for adaptation, learning and transformation". The key focus of increasing climate resilience is to reduce the climate vulnerability that communities, states, and countries currently have with regards to the many effects of climate change. Efforts to build climate resilience encompass social, economic, technological, and political strategies that are being implemented at all scales of society. From local community action to global treaties, addressing climate resilience is becoming a priority, although it could be argued that a significant amount of the theory has yet to be translated into practice.
Community resilience is the sustained ability of a community to use available resources to respond to, withstand, and recover from adverse situations. This allows for the adaptation and growth of a community after disaster strikes. Communities that are resilient are able to minimize any disaster, making the return to normal life as effortless as possible. By implementing a community resilience plan, a community can come together and overcome any disaster, while rebuilding physically and economically.
The Medina of Sousse is a Medina quarter in Sousse, Governorate of Sousse, Tunisia. Designated by the UNESCO a World Heritage Site in 1988, it is a typical example of the architecture of the early centuries of Islam in Maghreb. It encompasses a Kasbah, fortifications and the Great Mosque of Sousse. The Medina today houses the Archaeological Museum of Sousse. A number of Punic steles were discovered in the Medina, between the Ribat and the Great Mosque, in the 19th and 20th centuries.
Nature-based solutions is the sustainable management and use of natural features and processes to tackle socio-environmental issues. These issues include for example climate change, water security, food security, preservation of biodiversity, and disaster risk reduction. Through the use of NBS healthy, resilient, and diverse ecosystems can provide solutions for the benefit of both societies and overall biodiversity. The 2019 UN Climate Action Summit highlighted nature-based solutions as an effective method to combat climate change. For example, NBS in the context of climate action can include natural flood management, restoring natural coastal defences, providing local cooling, restoring natural fire regimes.
The time value of carbon is a conjecture that there is a greater benefit from reducing carbon dioxide or other greenhouse gas reduction immediately than reducing the same amount of emissions in the future. According to this conjecture, carbon emissions are subject to a discount rate, similar to money, which means that the timing of carbon emissions is important to consider alongside their magnitude. This is not to be confused with the monetary discount rate applied to carbon emission or carbon sequestration projects. Rather, it is a discount rate applied to the physical carbon itself.
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