Abrupt climate change

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Clathrate hydrates have been identified as a possible agent for abrupt changes. Gashydrat mit Struktur.jpg
Clathrate hydrates have been identified as a possible agent for abrupt changes.

An abrupt climate change occurs when the climate system is forced to transition at a rate that is determined by the climate system energy-balance. The transition rate is more rapid than the rate of change of the external forcing, [1] though it may include sudden forcing events such as meteorite impacts. [2] Abrupt climate change therefore is a variation beyond the variability of a climate. Past events include the end of the Carboniferous Rainforest Collapse, [3] Younger Dryas, [4] Dansgaard–Oeschger events, Heinrich events and possibly also the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum. [5] The term is also used within the context of climate change to describe sudden climate change that is detectable over the time-scale of a human lifetime. Such a sudden climate change can be the result of feedback loops within the climate system [6] or tipping points in the climate system.

Contents

Scientists may use different timescales when speaking of abrupt events. For example, the duration of the onset of the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum may have been anywhere between a few decades and several thousand years. In comparison, climate models predict that under ongoing greenhouse gas emissions, the Earth's near surface temperature could depart from the usual range of variability in the last 150 years as early as 2047. [7]

Definitions

Abrupt climate change can be defined in terms of physics or in terms of impacts: "In terms of physics, it is a transition of the climate system into a different mode on a time scale that is faster than the responsible forcing. In terms of impacts, an abrupt change is one that takes place so rapidly and unexpectedly that human or natural systems have difficulty adapting to it. These definitions are complementary: the former gives some insight into how abrupt climate change comes about; the latter explains why there is so much research devoted to it." [8]

Timescales

Timescales of events described as abrupt may vary dramatically. Changes recorded in the climate of Greenland at the end of the Younger Dryas, as measured by ice-cores, imply a sudden warming of +10 °C (+18 °F) within a timescale of a few years. [9] Other abrupt changes are the +4 °C (+7.2 °F) on Greenland 11,270 years ago [10] or the abrupt +6 °C (11 °F) warming 22,000 years ago on Antarctica. [11]

By contrast, the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum may have initiated anywhere between a few decades and several thousand years. Finally, Earth System's models project that under ongoing greenhouse gas emissions as early as 2047, the Earth's near surface temperature could depart from the range of variability in the last 150 years. [7]

Past events

The Younger Dryas period of abrupt climate change is named after the alpine flower, Dryas. Dryas drummondii6.jpg
The Younger Dryas period of abrupt climate change is named after the alpine flower, Dryas.

Several periods of abrupt climate change have been identified in the paleoclimatic record. Notable examples include:

There are also abrupt climate changes associated with the catastrophic draining of glacial lakes. One example of this is the 8.2-kiloyear event, which is associated with the draining of Glacial Lake Agassiz. [21] Another example is the Antarctic Cold Reversal, c. 14,500 years before present (BP), which is believed to have been caused by a meltwater pulse probably from either the Antarctic ice sheet [22] or the Laurentide Ice Sheet. [23] These rapid meltwater release events have been hypothesized as a cause for Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles. [24]

A five year study lead by the Oxford School of Archaeology and additionally conducted by Royal Holloway, University of London, the Oxford University Museum of Natural History, and the National Oceanography Centre Southampton [25] completed in 2013 called "Response of Humans to Abrupt Environmental Transitions" and referred to as "RESET" aimed to see if the hypothesis that humans have major development shifts during or immediately after abrupt climate changes with the aid of knowledge pulled from research on the palaeoenvironmental conditions, prehistoric archaeological history, oceanography, and volcanic geology of the last 130,000 years and across continents. [26] [27] It also aimed to predict possible human behavior in the event of climate change, and the timing of climate change. [28]

A 2017 study concluded that similar conditions to today's Antarctic ozone hole (atmospheric circulation and hydroclimate changes), ~17,700 years ago, when stratospheric ozone depletion contributed to abrupt accelerated Southern Hemisphere deglaciation. The event coincidentally happened with an estimated 192-year series of massive volcanic eruptions, attributed to Mount Takahe in West Antarctica. [29]

Possible precursors

Most abrupt climate shifts are likely due to sudden circulation shifts, analogous to a flood cutting a new river channel. The best-known examples are the several dozen shutdowns of the North Atlantic Ocean's Meridional Overturning Circulation during the last ice age, affecting climate worldwide. [30]

It has been postulated that teleconnections – oceanic and atmospheric processes on different timescales – connect both hemispheres during abrupt climate change. [35]

Climate feedback effects

The dark ocean surface reflects only 6 percent of incoming solar radiation; sea ice reflects 50 to 70 percent. NORTH POLE Ice (19626661335).jpg
The dark ocean surface reflects only 6 percent of incoming solar radiation; sea ice reflects 50 to 70 percent.

One source of abrupt climate change effects is a feedback process, in which a warming event causes a change that adds to further warming. [37] The same can apply to cooling. Examples of such feedback processes are:

The probability of abrupt change for some climate related feedbacks may be low. [40] [41] Factors that may increase the probability of abrupt climate change include higher magnitudes of global warming, warming that occurs more rapidly and warming that is sustained over longer time periods. [41]

Tipping points in the climate system

Possible tipping elements in the climate system include regional effects of climate change, some of which had abrupt onset and may therefore be regarded as abrupt climate change. [42] Scientists have stated, "Our synthesis of present knowledge suggests that a variety of tipping elements could reach their critical point within this century under anthropogenic climate change". [42]

This section is an excerpt from Tipping points in the climate system.[ edit ]
In climate science, a tipping point is a critical threshold that, when crossed, leads to large, accelerating and often irreversible changes in the climate system. [43] If tipping points are crossed, they are likely to have severe impacts on human society and may accelerate global warming. [44] [45] Tipping behavior is found across the climate system, for example in ice sheets, mountain glaciers, circulation patterns in the ocean, in ecosystems, and the atmosphere. [45] Examples of tipping points include thawing permafrost, which will release methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, or melting ice sheets and glaciers reducing Earth's albedo, which would warm the planet faster. Thawing permafrost is a threat multiplier because it holds roughly twice as much carbon as the amount currently circulating in the atmosphere. [46]

Volcanism

Isostatic rebound in response to glacier retreat (unloading) and increased local salinity have been attributed to increased volcanic activity at the onset of the abrupt Bølling–Allerød warming. They are associated with the interval of intense volcanic activity, hinting at an interaction between climate and volcanism: enhanced short-term melting of glaciers, possibly via albedo changes from particle fallout on glacier surfaces. [47]

Impacts

A summary of the path of the thermohaline circulation. Blue paths represent deep-water currents, and red paths represent surface currents. Thermohaline Circulation 2.png
A summary of the path of the thermohaline circulation. Blue paths represent deep-water currents, and red paths represent surface currents.
The Permian-Triassic extinction event, labelled "P-Tr" here, is the most significant extinction event in this plot for marine genera. Extinction intensity.svg
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, labelled "P–Tr" here, is the most significant extinction event in this plot for marine genera.

In the past, abrupt climate change has likely caused wide-ranging and severe impacts as follows:

See also

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">North Atlantic Current</span> Current of the Atlantic Ocean

The North Atlantic Current (NAC), also known as North Atlantic Drift and North Atlantic Sea Movement, is a powerful warm western boundary current within the Atlantic Ocean that extends the Gulf Stream northeastward.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate variability and change</span> Change in the statistical distribution of climate elements for an extended period

Climate variability includes all the variations in the climate that last longer than individual weather events, whereas the term climate change only refers to those variations that persist for a longer period of time, typically decades or more. Climate change may refer to any time in Earth's history, but the term is now commonly used to describe contemporary climate change, often popularly referred to as global warming. Since the Industrial Revolution, the climate has increasingly been affected by human activities.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Younger Dryas</span> Time period c. 12,900–11,700 years ago with Northern Hemisphere glacial cooling and SH warming

The Younger Dryas was a period in Earth's geologic history that occurred circa 12,900 to 11,700 years Before Present (BP). It is primarily known for the sudden or "abrupt" cooling in the Northern Hemisphere, when the North Atlantic Ocean cooled and annual air temperatures decreased by ~3 °C (5.4 °F) over North America, 2–6 °C (3.6–10.8 °F) in Europe and up to 10 °C (18 °F) in Greenland, in a few decades. Cooling in Greenland was particularly rapid, taking place over just 3 years or less. At the same time, the Southern Hemisphere experienced warming. This period ended as rapidly as it began, with dramatic warming over ~50 years, which transitioned the Earth from the glacial Pleistocene epoch into the current Holocene.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum</span> Global warming about 55 million years ago

The Paleocene–Eocene thermal maximum (PETM), alternatively ”Eocene thermal maximum 1 (ETM1)“ and formerly known as the "Initial Eocene" or “Late Paleocene thermal maximum", was a geologically brief time interval characterized by a 5–8 °C global average temperature rise and massive input of carbon into the ocean and atmosphere. The event began, now formally codified, at the precise time boundary between the Paleocene and Eocene geological epochs. The exact age and duration of the PETM remain uncertain, but it occurred around 55.8 million years ago (Ma) and lasted about 200 thousand years (Ka).

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Thermohaline circulation</span> Part of large-scale ocean circulation

Thermohaline circulation (THC) is a part of the large-scale ocean circulation that is driven by global density gradients created by surface heat and freshwater fluxes. The adjective thermohaline derives from thermo- referring to temperature and -haline referring to salt content, factors which together determine the density of sea water. Wind-driven surface currents travel polewards from the equatorial Atlantic Ocean, cooling en route, and eventually sinking at high latitudes. This dense water then flows into the ocean basins. While the bulk of it upwells in the Southern Ocean, the oldest waters upwell in the North Pacific. Extensive mixing therefore takes place between the ocean basins, reducing differences between them and making the Earth's oceans a global system. The water in these circuits transport both energy and mass around the globe. As such, the state of the circulation has a large impact on the climate of the Earth.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Ice sheet</span> Large mass of glacial tulips

In glaciology, an ice sheet, also known as a continental glacier, is a mass of glacial ice that covers surrounding terrain and is greater than 50,000 km2 (19,000 sq mi). The only current ice sheets are the Antarctic ice sheet and the Greenland ice sheet. Ice sheets are bigger than ice shelves or alpine glaciers. Masses of ice covering less than 50,000 km2 are termed an ice cap. An ice cap will typically feed a series of glaciers around its periphery.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Dansgaard–Oeschger event</span> Rapid climate fluctuation in the last glacial period

Dansgaard–Oeschger events, named after palaeoclimatologists Willi Dansgaard and Hans Oeschger, are rapid climate fluctuations that occurred 25 times during the last glacial period. Some scientists say that the events occur quasi-periodically with a recurrence time being a multiple of 1,470 years, but this is debated. The comparable climate cyclicity during the Holocene is referred to as Bond events.

The geologic temperature record are changes in Earth's environment as determined from geologic evidence on multi-million to billion (109) year time scales. The study of past temperatures provides an important paleoenvironmental insight because it is a component of the climate and oceanography of the time.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Heinrich event</span> Large groups of icebergs traverse the North Atlantic.

A Heinrich event is a natural phenomenon in which large groups of icebergs break off from the Laurentide ice sheet and traverse the Hudson Strait into the North Atlantic. First described by marine geologist Hartmut Heinrich, they occurred during five of the last seven glacial periods over the past 640,000 years. Heinrich events are particularly well documented for the last glacial period but notably absent from the penultimate glaciation. The icebergs contained rock mass that had been eroded by the glaciers, and as they melted, this material was dropped to the sea floor as ice rafted debris forming deposits called Heinrich layers.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Clathrate gun hypothesis</span> Meteorological hypothesis

The clathrate gun hypothesis is a proposed explanation for the periods of rapid warming during the Quaternary. The hypothesis is that changes in fluxes in upper intermediate waters in the ocean caused temperature fluctuations that alternately accumulated and occasionally released methane clathrate on upper continental slopes. This would have had an immediate impact on the global temperature, as methane is a much more powerful greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. Despite its atmospheric lifetime of around 12 years, methane's global warming potential is 72 times greater than that of carbon dioxide over 20 years, and 25 times over 100 years. It is further proposed that these warming events caused the Bond Cycles and individual interstadial events, such as the Dansgaard–Oeschger interstadials.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Atlantic meridional overturning circulation</span> System of surface and deep currents in the Atlantic Ocean

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is the main ocean current system in the Atlantic Ocean. It is a component of Earth's ocean circulation system and plays an important role in the climate system. The AMOC includes Atlantic currents at the surface and at great depths that are driven by changes in weather, temperature and salinity. Those currents comprise half of the global thermohaline circulation that includes the flow of major ocean currents, the other half being the Southern Ocean overturning circulation.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Bølling–Allerød Interstadial</span> Interglacial period about 14,000 years ago

The Bølling–Allerød Interstadial, also called the Late Glacial Interstadial (LGI), was an interstadial period which occurred from 14,690 to c. 12,890 years Before Present, during the final stages of the Last Glacial Period. It was defined by abrupt warming in the Northern Hemisphere, and a corresponding cooling in the Southern Hemisphere, as well as a period of major ice sheet collapse and corresponding sea level rise known as Meltwater pulse 1A. This period was named after two sites in Denmark where paleoclimate evidence for it was first found, in the form of vegetation fossils that could have only survived during a comparatively warm period in Northern Europe. It is also referred to as Interstadial 1 or Dansgaard–Oeschger event 1.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Richard Alley</span> American geologist and academic (born 1957)

Richard Blane Alley is an American geologist and Evan Pugh Professor of Geosciences at Pennsylvania State University. He has authored more than 240 refereed scientific publications about the relationships between Earth's cryosphere and global climate change, and is recognized by the Institute for Scientific Information as a Highly Cited Researcher.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">8.2-kiloyear event</span> Rapid global cooling around 8,200 years ago

In climatology, the 8.2 kiloyear event was a rapid drop in global temperatures that occurred around 8,200 years ago, or approximately 6200 BCE, lasting between two and four centuries. This event marks the beginning of the Northgrippian Age within the Holocene epoch. While this cooling phase was not as intense as the earlier Younger Dryas period that occurred just before the Holocene began, it was still significant. During the 8.2 kiloyear event, atmospheric methane levels dropped by 80 parts per billion, a 15% reduction, suggesting a broad cooling and drying trend across the Northern Hemisphere.

Bond events are North Atlantic ice rafting events that are tentatively linked to climate fluctuations in the Holocene. Eight such events have been identified. Bond events were previously believed to exhibit a roughly c. 1,500-year cycle, but the primary period of variability is now put at c. 1,000 years.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Tipping points in the climate system</span> Concept in climate science on critical thresholds

In climate science, a tipping point is a critical threshold that, when crossed, leads to large, accelerating and often irreversible changes in the climate system. If tipping points are crossed, they are likely to have severe impacts on human society and may accelerate global warming. Tipping behavior is found across the climate system, for example in ice sheets, mountain glaciers, circulation patterns in the ocean, in ecosystems, and the atmosphere. Examples of tipping points include thawing permafrost, which will release methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, or melting ice sheets and glaciers reducing Earth's albedo, which would warm the planet faster. Thawing permafrost is a threat multiplier because it holds roughly twice as much carbon as the amount currently circulating in the atmosphere.

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a large system of ocean currents, like a conveyor belt. It is driven by differences in temperature and salt content and it is an important component of the climate system. However, the AMOC is not a static feature of global circulation. It is sensitive to changes in temperature, salinity and atmospheric forcings. Climate reconstructions from δ18O proxies from Greenland reveal an abrupt transition in global temperature about every 1470 years. These changes may be due to changes in ocean circulation, which suggests that there are two equilibria possible in the AMOC. Stommel made a two-box model in 1961 which showed two different states of the AMOC are possible on a single hemisphere. Stommel’s result with an ocean box model has initiated studies using three dimensional ocean circulation models, confirming the existence of multiple equilibria in the AMOC.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Geological event</span> Occurrence in Earths history recorded in geological strata

A geological event is a temporary and spatially heterogeneous and dynamic (diachronous) happening in Earth history that contributes to the transformation of Earth system and the formation of geological strata. Event stratigraphy was first proposed as a system for the recognition, study and correlation of the effects of important physical or biological events on the broader stratigraphical record.

Laurie Menviel or L. Menviel; Laurie Menviel is a palaeoclimatologist, and a Scientia fellow, at the University of New South Wales, who was awarded a Dorothy Hill Medal in 2019.

A hyperthermal event corresponds to a sudden warming of the planet on a geologic time scale.

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  53. ↑ J. Hansen; M. Sato; P. Hearty; R. Ruedy; et al. (2015). "Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 °C global warming is highly dangerous". Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions. 15 (14): 20059–20179. Bibcode:2015ACPD...1520059H. doi: 10.5194/acpd-15-20059-2015 . Our results at least imply that strong cooling in the North Atlantic from AMOC shutdown does create higher wind speed. * * * The increment in seasonal mean wind speed of the northeasterlies relative to preindustrial conditions is as much as 10–20%. Such a percentage increase of wind speed in a storm translates into an increase of storm power dissipation by a factor ~1.4–2, because wind power dissipation is proportional to the cube of wind speed. However, our simulated changes refer to seasonal mean winds averaged over large grid-boxes, not individual storms.* * * Many of the most memorable and devastating storms in eastern North America and western Europe, popularly known as superstorms, have been winter cyclonic storms, though sometimes occurring in late fall or early spring, that generate near-hurricane-force winds and often large amounts of snowfall. Continued warming of low latitude oceans in coming decades will provide more water vapor to strengthen such storms. If this tropical warming is combined with a cooler North Atlantic Ocean from AMOC slowdown and an increase in midlatitude eddy energy, we can anticipate more severe baroclinic storms.


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