Climate change and crime

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Research suggests a complex relationship between climate change and crime. As global temperatures rise, some studies indicate an increase in crime rates, especially violent crimes. [1] However, the evidence is mixed, with some studies finding only weak or inconsistent correlations. Factors such as temperature volatility, [2] seasonal variations, [3] and geographical context [1] play a role in influencing crime rates. Additionally, environmental crimes, such as illegal waste dumping and unauthorized emissions, can contribute to climate change, creating additional factors that may influence crime patterns. [4]

Contents

Theories linking temperature and crime

Criminologists and researchers have proposed various theories to explain the potential relationship between rising temperatures and crime rates. These theories explore different mechanisms through which temperature might influence crime.

Temperature-aggression theory

The temperature-aggression theory, also known as the biological theory, suggests that higher temperatures can lead to increased levels of stress and irritability in individuals, potentially resulting in more aggressive behaviors. [5] According to this theory, as temperatures rise, people may become more prone to frustration and anger, which could contribute to an increase in violent crimes such as assaults and homicides. [4] [5] Several studies have explored this concept, examining whether heat-induced aggression correlates with higher rates of violent crime. [2] [4] One approach to temperature aggression theory involves examining historical data to identify correlations between heat waves or abnormally high temperatures and increased rates of violent crimes. [2] Researchers look for patterns in crime data across different seasons or during specific weather events to determine whether there is a significant increase in violent crime rates during hotter periods. [2] In doing so, researchers also consider various variables, such as time of day, location, and demographics, to control for external influences and to gain a clearer understanding of the temperature-aggression link. [2] [6]

Routine activity theory

A graphical model of the Routine activity theory (developed by Marcus Felson and Lawrence E. Cohen). Routine activity theory.png
A graphical model of the Routine activity theory (developed by Marcus Felson and Lawrence E. Cohen).

The routine activity theory states that crime is more likely to occur when three conditions are met: a motivated offender, a suitable target, and a lack of capable guardianship. [7] Warmer weather often leads to more outdoor activities and social interactions, creating more opportunities for motivated offenders to find suitable targets where there is little or no guardianship. [1] [8] This theory suggests that during warmer periods, with more people engaging in outdoor activities, there may be an increased likelihood of criminal activities such as theft and burglary. [1] [9] The routine activity theory does not imply that higher temperatures directly cause crime, but it emphasizes that environmental factors, such as weather, can affect human behavior and create conditions conducive to criminal activity.

Geographic locations, urban or rural environments, and community infrastructure can all influence how routine activity theory applies to crime rates. [8] [7] In urban settings, the increased density of people during warmer weather can create more chances for criminal behavior. [9] In contrast, rural areas might have different patterns due to variations in social interactions and community structures. [2] [9]

Temperature and crime studies

Graph showing the relationship between temperature and murder and suicide rates from 1899. PSM V55 D677 Relationship of temperature and crime rates.png
Graph showing the relationship between temperature and murder and suicide rates from 1899.
Land-ocean temperature index from 1880 to present. The solid black line is the global annual mean temperature showing the overall increase and variability in temperature (created by NASA). Global Temperature Anomaly.svg
Land-ocean temperature index from 1880 to present. The solid black line is the global annual mean temperature showing the overall increase and variability in temperature (created by NASA).

Numerous studies have examined the relationship between temperature and crime, yielding varied results:

Resource scarcity and crime

One study investigated the effects of rainfall fluctuations on dowry-related deaths in India. [12] The researchers concluded that a one standard deviation decrease in annual rainfall from the local mean is associated with a 7.8% increase in reported dowry deaths. [12] Wet shocks, or periods of excessive rainfall, reportedly have no significant impact on dowry deaths. [12] Additionally, the study found a deficit in rainfall is associated with a 32% increase in domestic violence incidents. [12] They state in their report that this may indicate a possible connection between economic stress due to poor agricultural yields during droughts and higher crime rates, particularly domestic abuse and dowry-related violence. [12] While dry periods are correlated with increased domestic violence and kidnapping/abduction cases in the study, they do not significantly affect burglary and robbery rates. [12]

Climate change is said to increase strain by exposing individuals to a range of stressors or stressful conditions conducive to crime. [13] These strains include extreme weather events, food and freshwater shortages, habitat changes, and forced migration. [13] These conditions can lead to negative emotions such as anger, frustration, and fear, creating pressure for corrective action, with crime being one possible response. [13] Robert Agnew’s theoretical model suggests that climate change will likely become a significant driver of crime due to its multifaceted effects on society, including increased strain, reduced social control, weakened social support, and increased opportunities for crime. [13]

Another perspective on resource scarcity and crime involves the potential of climate change litigation to mitigate conflicts and atrocity crimes. [14] A law study done by Yvonne Breitwieser-Faria at The University of Queensland stated that successful litigation can address environmental and economic stresses that exacerbate these issues. It concluded that such litigation may help alleviate the conditions that lead to increased crime rates by advancing climate policies and reducing environmental degradation. [14]

Environmental crimes

Environmental crimes, such as illegal waste dumping, deforestation, and unauthorized emissions of pollutants, contribute to climate change by accelerating global warming. [15] This environmental degradation can indirectly lead to an increase in violent crime rates. [4] Nicolette Pellegrino, an environmental law professor, suggests that rising temperatures and natural disasters— consequences of climate change—are associated with a higher incidence of violent crimes. [4] She states that this connection could be due to several factors. Natural disasters can lead to increased social disruption, economic instability, and resource scarcity, all of which may contribute to heightened stress and conflict within communities, potentially leading to a rise in violent crime. [4] The resulting environmental degradation might push vulnerable communities toward poverty and instability, potentially contributing to conditions that foster violent crime. [4]

Policy measures

Protestors at the Greenpeace Climate March from 2015 in Madrid. Greenpeace Climate March 2015 Madrid.jpg
Protestors at the Greenpeace Climate March from 2015 in Madrid.

To address the link between environmental crimes and climate change, some strategies have been proposed. These include advocacy and education to raise public awareness about the impact of climate change on violent crime rates. [4] Organizations like Greenpeace and initiatives such as Earth Day work to promote sustainability and educate people about climate change. [4] Increasing sanctions for regulated or criminal activities contributing to climate change and holding individuals accountable for environmental wrongdoing are among the suggested solutions. [4] The study by The University of Queensland mentioned above notes that legal actions can advance climate policy, reduce environmental degradation, and lower the risk factors associated with violent crimes. [14]

Geographic context and crime

Geographic variations can play a role in the relationship between climate change and crime, as different regions may exhibit unique crime patterns. [10] [16] Factors such as climate, urbanization, and socioeconomic conditions can influence how weather-related changes affect crime rates. [16]

A study focusing on North Bay, Ontario, a smaller urban area with a population of about 50,000, examined the impact of weather variables on crime rates in a smaller urban area. [16] The study found that temperature influenced the distribution of thefts, while assaults were positively correlated with temperature. [16] Break and enters were more influenced by calendar events, and domestic disputes were more frequent on weekends. [16] This highlights the importance of considering all sizes of urban areas and suburban areas when studying the relationship between weather and crime.

Socioeconomic conditions with climate and crime

Socioeconomic conditions can play a role in crime patterns and how communities are effected by climate change. [16] Regions with higher poverty rates or greater economic instability may experience more crime, which could also be exacerbated by climate change's impact on local economies since people in poverty are often more affected by climate change due to limited resources, reduced access to essential services, and greater vulnerability to extreme weather events, which can exacerbate these existing socioeconomic inequalities. [16] [17] Additionally, climate change can lead to resource scarcity, disrupted agricultural practices, and increased migration, all of which can contribute to heightened social tensions and crime. [4]

Seasonal variations and crime

Seasonal variations also influence crime patterns. [3] Changes in weather and temperature across seasons can lead to shifts in social behavior, which may influence the occurrence and types of crime. [3] As climate change causes more extreme weather fluctuations within the seasons, crime rates are also exhibiting greater variations. [3]

Influence of warmer weather

Warmer weather is often associated with more people spending time outdoors, engaging in recreational activities, attending events, or simply socializing in public spaces. [2] This increased social activity can lead to a rise in crime rates due to the greater potential for interactions between motivated offenders and suitable targets. [2] [3]

A study in Cleveland, Ohio, examined the impact of maximum daily temperature on outdoor violent crime, finding a strong positive correlation between high temperatures and violent crimes occurring outdoors. [2] This study supported and proposed the routine activity theory as an explanation, suggesting that as temperatures rise, there is a greater chance for criminal behavior due to increased outdoor activity and interactions. [2]

Sudden temperature anomalies

Seasonal variations with climate change can also manifest as sudden temperature anomalies, where temperatures deviate significantly from the seasonal norm. [3] A study that explored sudden temperature anomalies in 28 U.S. cities from 2015 to 2021 found that upward temperature swings correlated with increased robbery and homicide, especially during winter months. [8] The researchers conducting this study suggested that unexpected warmer weather during typically colder seasons can lead to a spike in violent crimes. [8] [3]

Seasonal crime patterns

Different seasons are associated with unique crime patterns. [3] During summer months, when temperatures are typically higher, outdoor activities increase, potentially leading to more crime. [2] [3] Crimes like theft, robbery, and assault tend to rise during warmer periods, possibly due to the increased opportunities for crime as more people are outside and engaging in social activities. [10] [2] [3]

Conversely, colder seasons can lead to a reduction in outdoor activities, which might result in lower crime rates for certain types of crimes. [3] However, as noted in the study of 28 U.S. cities, sudden upward temperature anomalies during winter can disrupt this trend, leading to a rise in violent crime rates. [8]

A study published in the International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology used a retrospective approach to examine the seasonal fluctuations of property crime in two Canadian cities, Vancouver, British Columbia, and Ottawa, Ontario. [18] The study found that cities with greater weather variations, such as Ottawa, experience more pronounced increases in property offenses during the summer months. [18] In contrast, Vancouver, which has a relatively mild and consistent climate, was reported to have less distinct seasonal variations in property crime. [18]

Impact on specific crime types

The impact of seasonal variations on crime can also vary depending on the type of crime. [9] Property crimes, such as burglary and theft, might increase during warmer seasons when people are more likely to leave their homes unattended. [3] On the other hand, violent crimes like assault and homicide could see an uptick due to increased social interactions and the potential for confrontations. [2] [8]

One study disaggregated property crime into specific types to examine how weather and temporal variables uniquely impact different offenses. [18] In Vancouver, warmer temperatures and rainfall were associated with increased theft from vehicles. [18] In Ottawa, higher temperatures and longer daylight hours were linked to increases in commercial and residential break and enters, but not with robbery or theft of vehicles. [18]

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Urban heat island</span> Situation where cities are warmer than surrounding areas

Urban areas usually experience the urban heat island (UHI) effect, that is, they are significantly warmer than surrounding rural areas. The temperature difference is usually larger at night than during the day, and is most apparent when winds are weak, under block conditions, noticeably during the summer and winter. The main cause of the UHI effect is from the modification of land surfaces while waste heat generated by energy usage is a secondary contributor. Urban areas occupy about 0.5% of the Earth's land surface but host more than half of the world's population. As a population center grows, it tends to expand its area and increase its average temperature. The term heat island is also used; the term can be used to refer to any area that is relatively hotter than the surrounding, but generally refers to human-disturbed areas.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate variability and change</span> Change in the statistical distribution of climate elements for an extended period

Climate variability includes all the variations in the climate that last longer than individual weather events, whereas the term climate change only refers to those variations that persist for a longer period of time, typically decades or more. Climate change may refer to any time in Earth's history, but the term is now commonly used to describe contemporary climate change, often popularly referred to as global warming. Since the Industrial Revolution, the climate has increasingly been affected by human activities.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Homeothermy</span> Thermoregulation that maintains a stable internal body temperature regardless of external influence

Homeothermy, homothermy or homoiothermy is thermoregulation that maintains a stable internal body temperature regardless of external influence. This internal body temperature is often, though not necessarily, higher than the immediate environment. Homeothermy is one of the 3 types of thermoregulation in warm-blooded animal species. Homeothermy's opposite is poikilothermy. A poikilotherm is an organism that does not maintain a fixed internal temperature but rather fluctuates based on its environment and physical behaviour.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">El Niño–Southern Oscillation</span> Climate phenomenon that periodically fluctuates

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global climate phenomenon that emerges from variations in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Those variations have an irregular pattern but do have some semblance of cycles. The occurrence of ENSO is not predictable. It affects the climate of much of the tropics and subtropics, and has links (teleconnections) to higher-latitude regions of the world. The warming phase of the sea surface temperature is known as "El Niño" and the cooling phase as "La Niña". The Southern Oscillation is the accompanying atmospheric oscillation, which is coupled with the sea temperature change.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Juvenile delinquency</span> Illegal behavior by minors

Juvenile delinquency, also known as juvenile offending, is the act of participating in unlawful behavior as a minor or individual younger than the statutory age of majority. These acts would otherwise be considered crimes if the individuals committing them were older. The term delinquent usually refers to juvenile delinquency, and is also generalised to refer to a young person who behaves an unacceptable way.

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Environmental criminology</span>

Environmental criminology focuses on criminal patterns within particular built environments and analyzes the impacts of these external variables on people's cognitive behavior. It forms a part of criminology's Positivist School in that it applies the scientific method to examine the society that causes crime.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Feminist school of criminology</span> School of criminology

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Routine activity theory</span> Theory in criminology

Routine activity theory is a sub-field of crime opportunity theory that focuses on situations of crimes. It was first proposed by Marcus Felson and Lawrence E. Cohen in their explanation of crime rate changes in the United States between 1947 and 1974. The theory has been extensively applied and has become one of the most cited theories in criminology. Unlike criminological theories of criminality, routine activity theory studies crime as an event, closely relates crime to its environment and emphasizes its ecological process, thereby diverting academic attention away from mere offenders.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">History of climate change science</span> Aspect of the history of science

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Biosocial criminology</span> Psychosocial examination of crime

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Correlates of crime</span> Things associated with unlawful behavior

The correlates of crime explore the associations of specific non-criminal factors with specific crimes.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Developmental theory of crime</span>

In 1993, American psychologist Terrie Moffitt described a dual taxonomy of offending behavior in an attempt to explain the developmental processes that lead to the distinctive shape of the age crime curve. Moffitt proposed that there are two main types of antisocial offenders in society: The adolescence-limited offenders, who exhibit antisocial behavior only during adolescence, and the life-course-persistent offenders, who begin to behave antisocially early in childhood and continue this behavior into adulthood. This theory is used with respect to antisocial behavior instead of crime due to the differing definitions of 'crime' among cultures. Due to similar characteristics and trajectories, this theory can be applied to both females and males.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Criminology</span> Study of crime and criminal actions/behavior

Criminology is the interdisciplinary study of crime and deviant behaviour. Criminology is a multidisciplinary field in both the behavioural and social sciences, which draws primarily upon the research of sociologists, political scientists, economists, legal sociologists, psychologists, philosophers, psychiatrists, social workers, biologists, social anthropologists, scholars of law and jurisprudence, as well as the processes that define administration of justice and the criminal justice system.

Green criminology is a branch of criminology that involves the study of harms and crimes against the environment broadly conceived, including the study of environmental law and policy, the study of corporate crimes against the environment, and environmental justice from a criminological perspective.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate change and infectious diseases</span> Overview of the relationship between climate change and infectious diseases

Global climate change has increased the occurrence of some infectious diseases. Infectious diseases whose transmission is impacted by climate change include, for example, vector-borne diseases like dengue fever, malaria, tick-borne diseases, leishmaniasis, zika fever, chikungunya and Ebola. One mechanism contributing to increased disease transmission is that climate change is altering the geographic range and seasonality of the insects that can carry the diseases. Scientists stated a clear observation in 2022: "The occurrence of climate-related food-borne and waterborne diseases has increased ."

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Evolutionary neuroandrogenic theory</span>

The evolutionary neuroandrogenic (ENA) theory is a conceptual framework which seeks to explain trends in violent and criminal behavior from an evolutionary and biological perspective. It was first proposed by the sociologist Lee Ellis in 2005 in his paper "A Theory Explaining Biological Correlates of Criminality" published in the European Journal of Criminology. Since then, it has expanded into an interdisciplinary field that intersects biology, psychology, and sociology. The theory rests on two propositions. The first is that in human mating behavior, females prefer males that appear to be more competent providers of resources, and so males exhibit increased competitive behavior than females to obtain access to those resources. The second is that biological mechanisms lead to differential development in the male brain which then mediates the increased competitive behaviors that cause criminality. Though it was originally intended to explain high rates of criminality in young men, it has since been used as a framework to explain gang behavior, terrorism, and the rise of the criminal justice system.

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  17. ↑ Mahesh, Lamin, Maria,Sperling, Frank,Liptow, Holger,Mausolf, Elisabeth,Verheyen, Roda,Agrawala, Shardul,Caspary, Georg,Paris, Ramy,Kashyap, Arun,Sharma, Arun,Abeygunawardena, Piya,Vyas, Yogesh,Knill, Philipp,Foy, Tim,Harrold, Melissa,Steele, Paul,Tanner, Thomas,Hirsch, Danielle,Oosterman, Maresa,Rooimans, Jaap,Mathur, Ajay,Debois, Marc,Sharma. "Poverty and climate change : reducing the vulnerability of the poor through adaptation". World Bank. Retrieved 2024-05-07.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
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