Global surface temperature

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The blue line represents global surface temperature reconstructed from Year Zero using proxy data from tree rings, corals, and ice cores. The red line shows direct surface temperature measurements since 1880. Common Era Temperature.svg
The blue line represents global surface temperature reconstructed from Year Zero using proxy data from tree rings, corals, and ice cores. The red line shows direct surface temperature measurements since 1880.

Global surface temperature (GST) refers to the average temperature of Earth's surface. It is determined nowadays by measuring the temperatures over the ocean and land, and then calculating a weighted average. The temperature over the ocean is called the sea surface temperature. The temperature over land is called the surface air temperature. Temperature data comes mainly from weather stations and satellites. To estimate data in the distant past, proxy data can be used for example from tree rings, corals, and ice cores. [1] Observing the rising GST over time is one of the many lines of evidence supporting the scientific consensus on climate change, which is that human activities are causing climate change.

Contents

Alternative terms for the same thing are global mean surface temperature (GMST) or global average surface temperature.

Series of reliable global temperature measurements began in the 1850—1880 time frame (this is called the instrumental temperature record). Through 1940, the average annual temperature increased, but was relatively stable between 1940 and 1975. Since 1975, it has increased by roughly 0.15 °C to 0.20 °C per decade, to at least 1.1 °C (1.9 °F) above 1880 levels. [3] The current annual GMST is about 15 °C (59 °F), [4] though monthly temperatures can vary almost 2 °C (4 °F) above or below this figure. [5]

Definition

The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report defines global mean surface temperature (GMST) as follows: GMST is the "estimated global average of near-surface air temperatures over land and sea ice, and sea surface temperature (SST) over ice-free ocean regions, with changes normally expressed as departures from a value over a specified reference period". [6] : 2231 

In comparison, the global mean surface air temperature (GSAT) is the "global average of near-surface air temperatures over land, oceans and sea ice. Changes in GSAT are often used as a measure of global temperature change in climate models." [6] : 2231 

Relevance

Changes in global temperatures over the past century provide evidence for the effects of increasing greenhouse gasses. When the climate system reacts to such changes, climate change follows. Measurement of the GST(global surface temperature) is one of the many lines of evidence supporting the scientific consensus on climate change, which is that humans are causing warming of Earth's climate system.

Projected global surface temperature changes relative to 1850-1900, based on CMIP6 multi-model mean changes Projected Change in Temperatures by 2090.svg
Projected global surface temperature changes relative to 1850–1900, based on CMIP6 multi-model mean changes

Measurement and calculation

The global surface temperature (GST) is calculated by averaging the temperatures over sea (sea surface temperature) and land (surface air temperature).

This section is an excerpt from Instrumental temperature record § Methods.[ edit ]
Surface air temperature change over the past 50 years. Change in Average Temperature With Fahrenheit.svg
Surface air temperature change over the past 50 years.

Instrumental temperature records are based on direct, instrument-based measurements of air temperature and ocean temperature, unlike indirect reconstructions using climate proxy data such as from tree rings and ocean sediments. [8] The longest-running temperature record is the Central England temperature data series, which starts in 1659. The longest-running quasi-global records start in 1850. [9] Temperatures on other time scales are explained in global temperature record.

"Global temperature" can have different definitions. There is a small difference between air and surface temperatures. [10] : 12 

Observations

This section is an excerpt from Effects of climate change § Changes in temperature.[ edit ]
Over the last 50 years the Arctic has warmed the most, and temperatures on land have generally increased more than sea surface temperatures. Change in Average Temperature With Fahrenheit.svg
Over the last 50 years the Arctic has warmed the most, and temperatures on land have generally increased more than sea surface temperatures.

Global warming affects all parts of Earth's climate system. [12] Global surface temperatures have risen by 1.1 °C (2.0 °F). Scientists say they will rise further in the future. [13] [14] The changes in climate are not uniform across the Earth. In particular, most land areas have warmed faster than most ocean areas. The Arctic is warming faster than most other regions. [15] Night-time temperatures have increased faster than daytime temperatures. [16] The impact on nature and people depends on how much more the Earth warms. [17] : 787 

Scientists use several methods to predict the effects of human-caused climate change. One is to investigate past natural changes in climate. [18] To assess changes in Earth's past climate scientists have studied tree rings, ice cores, corals, and ocean and lake sediments. [19] These show that recent temperatures have surpassed anything in the last 2,000 years. [20] By the end of the 21st century, temperatures may increase to a level last seen in the mid-Pliocene. This was around 3 million years ago. [21] : 322  At that time, mean global temperatures were about 2–4 °C (3.6–7.2 °F) warmer than pre-industrial temperatures. The global mean sea level was up to 25 metres (82 ft) higher than it is today. [22] : 323  The modern observed rise in temperature and CO2 concentrations has been rapid. even abrupt geophysical events in Earth's history do not approach current rates. [23] : 54 

Effects

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US Navy 071120-M-8966H-005 An aerial view over southern Bangladesh reveals extensive flooding as a result of Cyclone Sidr.jpg
Some climate change effects: wildfire caused by heat and dryness, bleached coral caused by ocean acidification and heating, environmental migration caused by desertification, and coastal flooding caused by storms and sea level rise.
This section is an excerpt from Effects of climate change.[ edit ]

Effects of climate change are well documented and growing for Earth's natural environment and human societies. Changes to the climate system include an overall warming trend, changes to precipitation patterns, and more extreme weather. As the climate changes it impacts the natural environment with effects such as more intense forest fires, thawing permafrost, and desertification. These changes can profoundly impact ecosystems and societies, and can become irreversible once tipping points are crossed.

The effects of climate change vary in timing and location. Up until now the Arctic has warmed faster than most other regions due to climate change feedbacks. [15] Surface air temperatures over land have also increased at about twice the rate they do over the ocean, causing intense heat waves. These temperatures would stabilize if greenhouse gas emissions were brought under control. Ice sheets and oceans absorb the vast majority of excess heat in the atmosphere, delaying effects there but causing them to accelerate and then continue after surface temperatures stabilize. Sea level rise is a particular long term concern as a result. The effects of ocean warming also include deoxygenation from marine heatwaves, ocean stratification, and changes to ocean currents. [24] : 10  The ocean is also acidifying as it absorbs carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. [25]

The primary causes and the wide-ranging impacts of climate change. Some effects act as positive feedbacks that amplify climate change. 20200118 Global warming and climate change - vertical block diagram - causes effects feedback.svg
The primary causes and the wide-ranging impacts of climate change. Some effects act as positive feedbacks that amplify climate change.
The ecosystems most immediately threatened by climate change are in the mountains, coral reefs, and the Arctic. Excess heat is causing environmental changes in those locations that exceed the ability of animals to adapt. [30] Species are escaping heat by migrating towards the poles and to higher ground when they can. [31] Sea level rise threatens coastal wetlands with flooding. Decreases in soil moisture in certain locations can cause desertification and damage ecosystems like the Amazon Rainforest. [32] : 9  At 2 °C (3.6 °F) of warming, around 10% of species on land would become critically endangered. [33] : 259 

See also

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Causes of climate change</span> Effort to scientifically ascertain mechanisms responsible for recent global warming

The scientific community has been investigating the causes of climate change for decades. After thousands of studies, it came to a consensus, where it is "unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land since pre-industrial times." This consensus is supported by around 200 scientific organizations worldwide, The dominant role in this climate change has been played by the direct emissions of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels. Indirect CO2 emissions from land use change, and the emissions of methane, nitrous oxide and other greenhouse gases play major supporting roles.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Carbon sink</span> Reservoir absorbing more carbon from, than emitting to, the air

A carbon sink is a natural or artificial process that "removes a greenhouse gas, an aerosol or a precursor of a greenhouse gas from the atmosphere". These sinks form an important part of the natural carbon cycle. An overarching term is carbon pool, which is all the places where carbon on Earth can be, i.e. the atmosphere, oceans, soil, plants, and so forth. A carbon sink is a type of carbon pool that has the capability to take up more carbon from the atmosphere than it releases.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate</span> Statistics of weather conditions in a given region over long periods

Climate is the long-term weather pattern in a region, typically averaged over 30 years. More rigorously, it is the mean and variability of meteorological variables over a time spanning from months to millions of years. Some of the meteorological variables that are commonly measured are temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind, and precipitation. In a broader sense, climate is the state of the components of the climate system, including the atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, lithosphere and biosphere and the interactions between them. The climate of a location is affected by its latitude, longitude, terrain, altitude, land use and nearby water bodies and their currents.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Cryosphere</span> Those portions of Earths surface where water is in solid form

The cryosphere is an all-encompassing term for the portions of Earth's surface where water is in solid form, including sea ice, lake ice, river ice, snow cover, glaciers, ice caps, ice sheets, and frozen ground. Thus, there is a wide overlap with the hydrosphere. The cryosphere is an integral part of the global climate system. It also has important feedbacks on the climate system. These feedbacks come from the cryosphere's influence on surface energy and moisture fluxes, clouds, the water cycle, atmospheric and oceanic circulation.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Sea level</span> Geographical reference point from which various heights are measured

Mean sea level is an average surface level of one or more among Earth's coastal bodies of water from which heights such as elevation may be measured. The global MSL is a type of vertical datum – a standardised geodetic datum – that is used, for example, as a chart datum in cartography and marine navigation, or, in aviation, as the standard sea level at which atmospheric pressure is measured to calibrate altitude and, consequently, aircraft flight levels. A common and relatively straightforward mean sea-level standard is instead a long-term average of tide gauge readings at a particular reference location.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Instrumental temperature record</span> In situ measurements that provide the temperature of Earths climate system

The instrumental temperature record is a record of temperatures within Earth's climate based on direct measurement of air temperature and ocean temperature, using thermometers and other thermometry devices. Instrumental temperature records are distinguished from indirect reconstructions using climate proxy data such as from tree rings and ocean sediments. Instrument-based data are collected from thousands of meteorological stations, buoys and ships around the globe. Whilst many heavily-populated areas have a high density of measurements, observations are more widely spread in sparsely populated areas such as polar regions and deserts, as well as over many parts of Africa and South America. Measurements were historically made using mercury or alcohol thermometers which were read manually, but are increasingly made using electronic sensors which transmit data automatically. Records of global average surface temperature are usually presented as anomalies rather than as absolute temperatures. A temperature anomaly is measured against a reference value. For example, a commonly used baseline period is the time period 1951-1980.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Water cycle</span> Continuous movement * water on, above and below the surface of the Earth

The water cycle, also known as the hydrologic cycle or the hydrological cycle, is a biogeochemical cycle that involves the continuous movement of water on, above and below the surface of the Earth. The mass of water on Earth remains fairly constant over time but the partitioning of the water into the major reservoirs of ice, fresh water, saline water and atmospheric water is variable depending on a wide range of climatic variables. The water moves from one reservoir to another, such as from river to ocean, or from the ocean to the atmosphere, by the physical processes of evaporation, sublimation, transpiration, condensation, precipitation, infiltration, surface runoff, and subsurface flow. In doing so, the water goes through different forms: liquid, solid (ice) and vapor. The ocean plays a key role in the water cycle as it is the source of 86% of global evaporation.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Sea surface temperature</span> Water temperature close to the oceans surface

Sea surface temperature (SST), or ocean surface temperature, is the ocean temperature close to the surface. The exact meaning of surface varies in the literature and in practice. It is usually between 1 millimetre (0.04 in) and 20 metres (70 ft) below the sea surface. Sea surface temperatures greatly modify air masses in the Earth's atmosphere within a short distance of the shore. Local areas of heavy snow can form in bands downwind of warm water bodies within an otherwise cold air mass. Warm sea surface temperatures can develop and strengthen cyclones over the Ocean. Experts call this process tropical cyclogenesis. Tropical cyclones can also cause a cool wake. This is due to turbulent mixing of the upper 30 metres (100 ft) of the ocean. Sea surface temperature changes during the day. This is like the air above it, but to a lesser degree. There is less variation in sea surface temperature on breezy days than on calm days. Ocean currents, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, can affect sea surface temperatures over several decades. Thermohaline circulation has a major impact on average sea surface temperature throughout most of the world's oceans.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Antarctic ice sheet</span> Earths southern polar ice cap

The Antarctic ice sheet is a continental glacier covering 98% of the Antarctic continent, with an area of 14 million square kilometres and an average thickness of over 2 kilometres (1.2 mi). It is the largest of Earth's two current ice sheets, containing 26.5 million cubic kilometres of ice, which is equivalent to 61% of all fresh water on Earth. Its surface is nearly continuous, and the only ice-free areas on the continent are the dry valleys, nunataks of the Antarctic mountain ranges, and sparse coastal bedrock. However, it is often subdivided into East Antarctic ice sheet (EAIS), West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS), and Antarctic Peninsula (AP), due to the large differences in topography, ice flow, and glacier mass balance between the three regions.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate commitment</span> Unavoidable future climate change due to inertial effects

Climate commitment describes the fact that Earth's climate reacts with a delay to influencing factors such as the growth and the greater presence of greenhouse gases. Climate commitment studies attempt to assess the amount of future global warming that is "committed" under the assumption of some constant or some evolving level of forcing. The constant level often used for illustrative purposes is that due to CO2 doubling or quadrupling relative to the pre-industrial level; or the present level of forcing.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Effects of climate change</span>

Effects of climate change are well documented and growing for Earth's natural environment and human societies. Changes to the climate system include an overall warming trend, changes to precipitation patterns, and more extreme weather. As the climate changes it impacts the natural environment with effects such as more intense forest fires, thawing permafrost, and desertification. These changes can profoundly impact ecosystems and societies, and can become irreversible once tipping points are crossed.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate change</span> Current rise in Earths average temperature and its effects

In common usage, climate change describes global warming—the ongoing increase in global average temperature—and its effects on Earth's climate system. Climate change in a broader sense also includes previous long-term changes to Earth's climate. The current rise in global average temperature is more rapid than previous changes, and is primarily caused by humans burning fossil fuels. Fossil fuel use, deforestation, and some agricultural and industrial practices add to greenhouse gases, notably carbon dioxide and methane. Greenhouse gases absorb some of the heat that the Earth radiates after it warms from sunlight. Larger amounts of these gases trap more heat in Earth's lower atmosphere, causing global warming.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Ocean</span> Salt water covering most of Earth

The ocean is the body of salt water that covers ~70.8% of the Earth. In English, the term ocean also refers to any of the large bodies of water into which the world ocean is conventionally divided. Distinct names are used to identify five different areas of the ocean: Pacific, Atlantic, Indian, Antarctic/Southern, and Arctic. The ocean contains 97% of Earth's water and is the primary component of the Earth's hydrosphere, thus the ocean is essential to life on Earth. The ocean influences climate and weather patterns, the carbon cycle, and the water cycle by acting as a huge heat reservoir.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Greenhouse gas</span> Gas in an atmosphere that absorbs and emits radiation at thermal infrared wavelengths

Greenhouse gases (GHGs) are the gases in the atmosphere that raise the surface temperature of planets such as the Earth. What distinguishes them from other gases is that they absorb the wavelengths of radiation that a planet emits, resulting in the greenhouse effect. The Earth is warmed by sunlight, causing its surface to radiate heat, which is then mostly absorbed by greenhouse gases. Without greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the average temperature of Earth's surface would be about −18 °C (0 °F), rather than the present average of 15 °C (59 °F).

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate change feedbacks</span> Feedback related to climate change

Climate change feedbacks are effects of global warming that amplify or diminish the effect of forces that initially cause the warming. Positive feedbacks enhance global warming while negative feedbacks weaken it. Feedbacks are important in the understanding of climate change because they play an important part in determining the sensitivity of the climate to warming forces. Climate forcings and feedbacks together determine how much and how fast the climate changes. Large positive feedbacks can lead to tipping points—abrupt or irreversible changes in the climate system—depending upon the rate and magnitude of the climate change.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Ocean temperature</span> Physical quantity that expresses hot and cold in ocean water

Several factors cause the ocean temperature to vary. These are depth, geographical location and season. Both the temperature and salinity of ocean water differ. Warm surface water is generally saltier than the cooler deep or polar waters. In polar regions, the upper layers of ocean water are cold and fresh. Deep ocean water is cold, salty water found deep below the surface of Earth's oceans. This water has a uniform temperature of around 0-3 °C. The ocean temperature also depends on the amount of solar radiation falling on its surface. In the tropics, with the Sun nearly overhead, the temperature of the surface layers can rise to over 30 °C (86 °F). Near the poles the temperature in equilibrium with the sea ice is about −2 °C (28 °F). There is a continuous circulation of water in the oceans. Thermohaline circulation (THC) is part of the large-scale ocean circulation. It is driven by global density gradients created by surface heat and freshwater fluxes. Warm surface currents cool as they move away from the tropics. This happens as the water becomes denser and sinks. Changes in temperature and density move the cold water back towards the equator as a deep sea current. Then it eventually wells up again towards the surface.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Effects of climate change on oceans</span>

There are many effects of climate change on oceans. One of the main ones is an increase in ocean temperatures. More frequent marine heatwaves are linked to this. The rising temperature contributes to a rise in sea levels due to melting ice sheets. Other effects on oceans include sea ice decline, reducing pH values and oxygen levels, as well as increased ocean stratification. All this can lead to changes of ocean currents, for example a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). The main root cause of these changes are the emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities, mainly burning of fossil fuels. Carbon dioxide and methane are examples of greenhouse gases. The additional greenhouse effect leads to ocean warming because the ocean takes up most of the additional heat in the climate system. The ocean also absorbs some of the extra carbon dioxide that is in the atmosphere. This causes the pH value of the seawater to drop. Scientists estimate that the ocean absorbs about 25% of all human-caused CO2 emissions.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Marine heatwave</span> Unusually warm temperature event in the ocean

A marine heatwave is a period of abnormally high ocean temperatures relative to the average seasonal temperature in a particular marine region. Marine heatwaves are caused by a variety of factors, including shorter term weather phenomena such as fronts, intraseasonal events, annual, or decadal (10-year) modes like El Niño events, and longer term changes like climate change. Marine heatwaves can have biological impacts on ecosystems at individual, population, and community levels. MHWs have led to severe biodiversity changes such as coral bleaching, sea star wasting disease, harmful algal blooms, and mass mortality of benthic communities. Unlike heatwaves on land, marine heatwaves can extend for millions of square kilometers, persist for weeks to months or even years, and occur at subsurface levels.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">IPCC Sixth Assessment Report</span> Intergovernmental report on climate change

The Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the United Nations (UN) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the sixth in a series of reports which assess scientific, technical, and socio-economic information concerning climate change. Three Working Groups covered the following topics: The Physical Science Basis (WGI); Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (WGII); Mitigation of Climate Change (WGIII). Of these, the first study was published in 2021, the second report February 2022, and the third in April 2022. The final synthesis report was finished in March 2023.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Effects of climate change on the water cycle</span>

Paleoclimatic records indicate that the Earth's water cycle has undergone natural fluctuations since Earth's formation, however, current changes in the water cycle can be primarily attributed to a changing climate as a result of anthropogenic emissions. The effects of climate change on the water cycle are profound and have been described as an intensification or a strengthening of the water cycle. This effect has been observed since at least 1980. The global water cycle encompasses the continuous circulation of water through the Earth's surface, atmosphere, subsurface and stores such as glaciers, oceans and ground water. It is an essential mechanism for maintaining freshwater resources, as well as other water reservoirs such as oceans, Ice sheets, atmosphere and land surface. The water cycle is essential to life on Earth and plays a large role in maintaining a stable global climate. The warming of our planet is expected to cause changes in the water cycle for various reasons. Changes is the water cycle can have global, regional and local impacts, impacting water-resource availability, the frequency and severity of storms, droughts and floods, and further increases in global warming through increased water vapor in atmosphere.*

References

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  28. ↑ "Extreme Weather and Climate Change". NASA.gov. National Aeronautics and Space Administration. September 2023. Archived from the original on 26 October 2023.
  29. ↑ "The Study of Earth as an Integrated System". nasa.gov. NASA. 2016. Archived from the original on 2016-11-02.
  30. ↑ EPA (19 January 2017). "Climate Impacts on Ecosystems". Archived from the original on 27 January 2018. Retrieved 5 February 2019. Mountain and arctic ecosystems and species are particularly sensitive to climate change... As ocean temperatures warm and the acidity of the ocean increases, bleaching and coral die-offs are likely to become more frequent.
  31. ↑ Pecl, Gretta T.; Araújo, Miguel B.; Bell, Johann D.; Blanchard, Julia; Bonebrake, Timothy C.; Chen, I-Ching; Clark, Timothy D.; Colwell, Robert K.; Danielsen, Finn; Evengård, Birgitta; Falconi, Lorena; Ferrier, Simon; Frusher, Stewart; Garcia, Raquel A.; Griffis, Roger B.; Hobday, Alistair J.; Janion-Scheepers, Charlene; Jarzyna, Marta A.; Jennings, Sarah; Lenoir, Jonathan; Linnetved, Hlif I.; Martin, Victoria Y.; McCormack, Phillipa C.; McDonald, Jan; Mitchell, Nicola J.; Mustonen, Tero; Pandolfi, John M.; Pettorelli, Nathalie; Popova, Ekaterina; Robinson, Sharon A.; Scheffers, Brett R.; Shaw, Justine D.; Sorte, Cascade J. B.; Strugnell, Jan M.; Sunday, Jennifer M.; Tuanmu, Mao-Ning; Vergés, Adriana; Villanueva, Cecilia; Wernberg, Thomas; Wapstra, Erik; Williams, Stephen E. (31 March 2017). "Biodiversity redistribution under climate change: Impacts on ecosystems and human well-being". Science. 355 (6332): eaai9214. doi:10.1126/science.aai9214. hdl: 10019.1/120851 . PMID   28360268. S2CID   206653576.
  32. ↑ IPCC, 2019: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change and Land: an IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems [P.R. Shukla, J. Skea, E. Calvo Buendia, V. Masson-Delmotte, H.- O. Pörtner, D. C. Roberts, P. Zhai, R. Slade, S. Connors, R. van Diemen, M. Ferrat, E. Haughey, S. Luz, S. Neogi, M. Pathak, J. Petzold, J. Portugal Pereira, P. Vyas, E. Huntley, K. Kissick, M. Belkacemi, J. Malley, (eds.)]. doi:10.1017/9781009157988.001
  33. ↑ Parmesan, Camille; Morecroft, Mike; Trisurat, Yongyut; et al. "Chapter 2: Terrestrial and Freshwater Ecosystems and their Services" (PDF). Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. The Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press.
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