Central England temperature

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Central England temperature dataset, 1659 to 2014. CET 1659 - 2014 using Hadley Centre Data.png
Central England temperature dataset, 1659 to 2014.

The Central England Temperature (CET) record is a meteorological dataset originally published by Professor Gordon Manley in 1953 and subsequently extended and updated in 1974, following many decades of painstaking work. The monthly mean surface air temperatures, for the Midlands region of England, are given (in degrees Celsius) from the year 1659 to the present.

Contents

This record represents the longest series of monthly temperature observations in existence. It is a valuable dataset for meteorologists and climate scientists. It is monthly from 1659, and a daily version has been produced from 1772. The monthly means from November 1722 onwards are given to a precision of 0.1 °C. The earliest years of the series, from 1659 to October 1722 inclusive, for the most part only have monthly means given to the nearest degree or half a degree, though there is a small 'window' of 0.1 degree precision from 1699 to 1706 inclusive. This reflects the number, accuracy, reliability and geographical spread of the temperature records that were available for the years in question.

Data quality

Although best efforts have been made by Manley and subsequent researchers to quality control the series, there are data problems in the early years, with some non-instrumental data used. These problems account for the lower precision to which the early monthly means were quoted by Manley. Parker et al. (1992) [1] addressed this by not using data prior to 1772, since their daily series required more accurate data than did the original series of monthly means. Before 1722, instrumental records do not overlap and Manley used a non-instrumental series from Utrecht compiled by Labrijn (1945), to make the monthly central England temperature (CET) series complete.

For a period early in the 21st century there were two versions of the series: the "official" version maintained by the Hadley Centre in Exeter, and a version that was maintained by the late Philip Eden which he argued was more consistent with the series as originally compiled by Manley. [2]

The warmest year on record was recorded in 2022, with an average temperature of 11.15 degrees Celsius. This beat the previous 2014 record by 0.2 degrees and was almost 2 degrees over the 1961-1990 average

20190731 Central England Temperature (CET) (annual mean, beginning in 1659).png
CET and its 10-year and 30-year moving averages (orange and black traces, respectively). [3]
England Temperature since 1659.jpg
This stacked warming stripes graphic—technically a two-dimensional heat map—organizes CETs by month (vertically) and by year (horizontally). [4]

During the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, a cool period which coincided with cool winters and generally cool summers, the temperatures fluctuated widely but with little trend. From 1910, temperatures increased until about 1950, when they flattened before a sharp rising trend began in about 1975. The warmest decade on record is the 2010s (2011–2020) with a mean temperature of 10.40 °C (50.72 °F). [5] [lower-alpha 1]

Both the general warming trend [6] and the hottest year on record at the time, 2014, [7] have been attributed to human-caused climate change using observational and climate model-based techniques. This record was subsequently broken in 2022, when a mean CET of 11.15 C was recorded, 1.68 degrees above the 1961-90 average and breaking the 2014 record by nearly 0.2 Celsius.

Extremes

Taking the 364-year period for the series as a whole:

Hottest

PeriodRecord MeanYear
Year11.1 °C (52.0 °F)2022, 2023 [8] [9]
Spring (March–May)10.3 °C (50.5 °F)2011, 2017
Summer (June–August)17.7 °C (63.9 °F)1976
Autumn (September–November)12.6 °C (54.7 °F)2006
Winter (December–February)6.8 °C (44.2 °F)2015/2016
January7.5 °C (45.5 °F)1916
February7.9 °C (46.2 °F)1779
March9.2 °C (48.6 °F)1957
April11.8 °C (53.2 °F)2011
May15.1 °C (59.2 °F)1833
June18.2 °C (64.8 °F)1846
July19.8 °C (67.6 °F)2006
August19.1 °C (66.4 °F)1995
September17.0 °C (62.6 °F)2023
October13.3 °C (55.9 °F)2001
November9.9 °C (49.8 °F)1994
December9.6 °C (49.3 °F)2015

Coldest

PeriodRecord MeanYear
Year6.9 °C (44.4 °F)1740
Spring (March–May)5.6 °C (42.1 °F)1837
Summer (June–August)13.1 °C (55.6 °F)1725
Autumn (September–November)7.5 °C (45.5 °F)1676, 1740, 1786
Winter (December–February)−1.2 °C (29.8 °F)1683/1684
January−3.1 °C (26.4 °F)1795
February−1.9 °C (28.6 °F)1947
March1.0 °C (33.8 °F)1674
April4.7 °C (40.5 °F)1701 and 1837
May8.5 °C (47.3 °F)1698
June11.5 °C (52.7 °F)1675
July13.4 °C (56.1 °F)1816
August12.9 °C (55.2 °F)1912
September10.5 °C (50.9 °F)1674, 1675, 1694 and 1807
October5.3 °C (41.5 °F)1740
November2.3 °C (36.1 °F)1782
December−0.8 °C (30.6 °F)1890

Mean, maximum and minimum temperatures

Since 1878, the Central England temperature has recorded daily maximum and minimum temperatures; its daily mean records began in 1772. The tables below show the record average max/min for each season and each calendar month since 1878.

Highest minimum

PeriodRecord MeanYear
Year7.2 °C (45.0 °F)2006, 2014, 2023 [10]
Spring (March–May)6.1 °C (43.0 °F)2017 [11]
Summer (June–August)12.4 °C (54.3 °F)2006
Autumn (September–November)9.0 °C (48.2 °F)2006
Winter (December–February)3.8 °C (38.8 °F)1934/35, 2006/07, 2015/16
January5.2 °C (41.4 °F)1916
February4.5 °C (40.1 °F)1903, 1926
March5.6 °C (42.1 °F)1957
April6.7 °C (44.1 °F)2011
May8.9 °C (48.0 °F)1889, 2008
June11.7 °C (53.1 °F)2017
July14.0 °C (57.2 °F)2006
August14.0 °C (57.2 °F)1997
September12.9 °C (55.2 °F)2006
October10.2 °C (50.4 °F)2001
November7.4 °C (45.3 °F)1994
December6.9 °C (44.4 °F)2015

Lowest minimum

PeriodRecord MeanYear
Year4.3 °C (39.7 °F)1879 [10]
Spring (March–May)2.3 °C (36.1 °F)1887 [11]
Summer (June–August)9.7 °C (49.5 °F)1922
Autumn (September–November)4.1 °C (39.4 °F)1919
Winter (December–February)−3.1 °C (26.4 °F)1962/63
January−4.8 °C (23.4 °F)1963
February−5.2 °C (22.6 °F)1895
March−2.0 °C (28.4 °F)1883
April1.2 °C (34.2 °F)2021
May4.7 °C (40.5 °F)1885
June7.9 °C (46.2 °F)1916
July9.8 °C (49.6 °F)1919
August9.3 °C (48.7 °F)1885
September6.6 °C (43.9 °F)1986
October3.2 °C (37.8 °F)1919
November−0.4 °C (31.3 °F)1915
December−3.8 °C (25.2 °F)2010

Highest maximum

PeriodRecord MeanYear
Year15.3 °C (59.5 °F)2022 [12]
Spring (March–May)15.7 °C (60.3 °F)1893 [13]
Summer (June–August)23.4 °C (74.1 °F)1976
Autumn (September–November)16.1 °C (61.0 °F)2006
Winter (December–February)9.8 °C (49.6 °F)2015/16
January10.4 °C (50.7 °F)1916
February11.5 °C (52.7 °F)2019
March13.8 °C (56.8 °F)1938
April17.2 °C (63.0 °F)2011
May19.0 °C (66.2 °F)1992
June22.6 °C (72.7 °F)2023
July25.6 °C (78.1 °F)2006
August25.1 °C (77.2 °F)1995
September21.5 °C (70.7 °F)2023
October17.1 °C (62.8 °F)1921
November12.4 °C (54.3 °F)2011
December12.3 °C (54.1 °F)2015

Lowest maximum

PeriodRecord MeanYear
Year10.5 °C (50.9 °F)1879 [12]
Spring (March–May)10.1 °C (50.2 °F)1879 [13]
Summer (June–August)17.0 °C (62.6 °F)1879
Autumn (September–November)11.1 °C (52.0 °F)1887, 1896, 1952
Winter (December–February)2.5 °C (36.5 °F)1962/63
January0.6 °C (33.1 °F)1963
February0.0 °C (32.0 °F)1947
March5.8 °C (42.4 °F)1883, 1888, 2013
April9.3 °C (48.7 °F)1879
May12.8 °C (55.0 °F)1902
June15.5 °C (59.9 °F)1909, 1972
July16.6 °C (61.9 °F)1879
August16.0 °C (60.8 °F)1912
September14.4 °C (57.9 °F)1952
October10.2 °C (50.4 °F)1896
November5.8 °C (42.4 °F)1919
December1.2 °C (34.2 °F)1890

Daily records

Daily mean temperatures have been available since 1772, with max and min data available from 1878 onward. [14]

Highest mean

Period [15] Record MeanDate
January12.7 °C (54.9 °F)1 January 2022
February13.7 °C (56.7 °F)15 February 2024
March15.2 °C (59.4 °F)30 March 2017 [16]
April19.7 °C (67.5 °F)29 April 1775
May21.2 °C (70.2 °F)29 May 1780
June22.9 °C (73.2 °F)3 June 1947
July28.1 °C (82.6 °F)19 July 2022
August25.2 °C (77.4 °F)12 August 2020
September23.3 °C (73.9 °F)7 September 2023
October20.1 °C (68.2 °F)1 October 1985
November15.5 °C (59.9 °F)5 November 1938
December13.1 °C (55.6 °F)19 December 2015

Highest minimum

Period [17] RecordDate
January10.9 °C (51.6 °F)1 January 2022
February11.1 °C (52.0 °F)15 February 2024
March11.1 °C (52.0 °F)30 March 1998
April12.4 °C (54.3 °F)24 April 2007
May14.5 °C (58.1 °F)30 May 1944
June17.3 °C (63.1 °F)22 June 1941
July19.5 °C (67.1 °F)20 July 2016
August18.8 °C (65.8 °F)11 August 1997
September18.4 °C (65.1 °F)5 September 1949
October15.3 °C (59.5 °F)3 October 2011
November13.5 °C (56.3 °F)22 November 1947
December11.7 °C (53.1 °F)31 December 2021

Highest maximum

Period [18] Record MaximumDate
January14.5 °C (58.1 °F)1 January 2022
February18.6 °C (65.5 °F)26 February 2019
March22.2 °C (72.0 °F)29 March 1965
April25.0 °C (77.0 °F)16 April 2003
May28.9 °C (84.0 °F)29 May 1944
June30.4 °C (86.7 °F)29 June 2019
July37.3 °C (99.1 °F)19 July 2022
August33.4 °C (92.1 °F)3 August 1990
September31.2 °C (88.2 °F)1 September 1906
October27.0 °C (80.6 °F)1 October 2011
November18.7 °C (65.7 °F)4 November 1946
December14.5 °C (58.1 °F)23 December 1977

Lowest mean

PeriodRecord MeanDate
January−11.9 °C (10.6 °F)20 January 1838
February−8.8 °C (16.2 °F)9 February 1816
March−6.5 °C (20.3 °F)13 March 1845
April−0.5 °C (31.1 °F)3 April 1799
May2.9 °C (37.2 °F)8 May 1861
June7.3 °C (45.1 °F)9 June 1816
July8.7 °C (47.7 °F)20 July 1836
August8.8 °C (47.8 °F)26 August 1864
September4.9 °C (40.8 °F)28 September 1824
October0.3 °C (32.5 °F)29 October 1895
November−4.6 °C (23.7 °F)24 November 1904
December−10.8 °C (12.6 °F)25 December 1796

Lowest minimum

PeriodRecord MinimumDate
January−13.4 °C (7.9 °F)21 January 1940
February−13.6 °C (7.5 °F)24 February 1947
March−9.4 °C (15.1 °F)5 March 1909
April−4.9 °C (23.2 °F)2 April 1917
May−1.5 °C (29.3 °F)4 May 1941
June1.3 °C (34.3 °F)5 June 1991
July4.7 °C (40.5 °F)4 July 1965
August4.0 °C (39.2 °F)31 August 1921
September0.3 °C (32.5 °F)29 September 1919
October−3.9 °C (25.0 °F)27 October 1931
November−8.8 °C (16.2 °F)24 November 1904
December−15.9 °C (3.4 °F)13 December 1981

Lowest maximum

PeriodRecordDate
January−5.7 °C (21.7 °F)12 January 1987
February−4.5 °C (23.9 °F)6 February 1895
March−1.1 °C (30.0 °F)1 March 2018
April2.3 °C (36.1 °F)5 April 1911
May6.0 °C (42.8 °F)3 May 1892
June10.1 °C (50.2 °F)8 June 1897
July12.5 °C (54.5 °F)5 July 1920
August12.0 °C (53.6 °F)16 August 1888
September8.3 °C (46.9 °F)29 September 1918
October3.1 °C (37.6 °F)31 October 1934
November−1.0 °C (30.2 °F)28 November 2010
December−4.0 °C (24.8 °F)29 December 1908

See also

Notes

  1. Alternatively, if decades are measured from 00-09, the 2000s become the warmest decade on record, with a mean temperature of 10.39 °C (50.70 °F). However, the prevailing method of measuring decades is 01-00.

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References

  1. Parker, D. E., T. P. Legg, and C. K. Folland, 1992: A new daily Central England Temperature Series, 1772-1991. Int J Climatol, 12, 317-342.
  2. "Checking the CET". Archived from the original on 7 October 2012. Retrieved 13 August 2006.
  3. Data source: Met Office U.K. (31 July 2019). "mean CET ranked coldest to warmest from 1659 to 2019". Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research. Archived from the original on 21 May 2019. Retrieved 31 July 2019.
  4. @iamreddave (16 June 2016). "England Temperatures Since 1659". Archived from the original on 7 September 2019. Retrieved 7 September 2019.Data source: Met Office U.K., Hadley Centre (archive).
  5. Met Office U.K. "MONTHLY MEAN CENTRAL ENGLAND TEMPERATURE (DEGREES C)". Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research . Retrieved 18 June 2021.
  6. Karoly, D. J. and P. A. Stott (2006). "Anthropogenic warming of central England temperature". Atmospheric Science Letters. 7 (4): 81–85. Bibcode:2006AtScL...7...81K. doi: 10.1002/asl.136 . S2CID   121456744.
  7. King, A. D.; et al. (2015). "Attribution of the record high Central England temperature of 2014 to anthropogenic influences". Environmental Research Letters. 10 (5): 054002. Bibcode:2015ERL....10e4002K. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054002 . hdl: 1885/153330 . S2CID   154632588.
  8. Met Office U.K. "Central England Temperature ranked coldest to warmest from 1659 to 2023". Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research . Retrieved 1 January 2024.
  9. Met Office U.K. "Central England Temperature 1659 to 2023". Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research . Retrieved 1 January 2024.
  10. 1 2 Met Office U.K. "min CET ranked coldest to warmest from 1878 to 2023". Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research . Retrieved 20 February 2024.
  11. 1 2 Met Office U.K. "SEASONAL MINIMUM CENTRAL ENGLAND TEMPERATURE, 1878 TO 2023". Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research . Retrieved 20 February 2024.
  12. 1 2 Met Office U.K. "max CET ranked coldest to warmest from 1878 to 2023". Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research . Retrieved 20 February 2024.
  13. 1 2 Met Office U.K. "SEASONAL MAXIMUM CENTRAL ENGLAND TEMPERATURE, 1878 TO 2024". Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research . Retrieved 20 February 2024.
  14. Met Office U.K. "CET Record Breakers". Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research . Retrieved 18 June 2021.
  15. Met Office U.K. "Daily HadCET, 1772 to date". Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research . Retrieved 20 July 2022.
  16. Met Office U.K. "Daily HadCET, 1772 to date". Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research . Retrieved 18 June 2021.
  17. Met Office U.K. "Daily HadCET, 1772 to date". Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research . Retrieved 20 July 2022.
  18. Met Office U.K. "Daily HadCET, 1772 to date". Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research . Retrieved 20 July 2022.

Further reading