Climate change in Tanzania

Last updated
Koppen-Geiger Map TZA present.svg
Köppen climate classification map for Tanzania for 1980–2016
Koppen-Geiger Map TZA future.svg
2071–2100 map under the most intense climate change scenario. Mid-range scenarios are currently considered more likely [1] [2] [3]

Climate change in Tanzania is affecting the natural environment and residents of Tanzania. Temperatures in Tanzania are rising with a higher likelihood of intense rainfall events (resulting in flooding) and of dry spells (resulting in droughts). [4] [5]

Contents

Water scarcity has become an increasing problem and many major water bodies have had extreme drops in water levels, including Lake Victoria, Lake Tanganyika, Lake Jipe, and Lake Rukwa. [6] [4] Tanzania's agricultural sector, which employs over half of the population, is particularly vulnerable as farmers are predominantly dependent on rainfed agriculture. [6] On the other hand, increasing intense rainfall events have resulted in flooding across the region, which has damaged infrastructure and livelihoods. [7] A high percentage of the population of Tanzania lives along the coast and are dependent on fisheries and Aquaculture [6] Sea level rise and changes in the quality of water are expected to impact these sectors and be a continued challenge for the country. [6]

Tanzania produced a National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs) in 2007 as mandated by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The NAPA identifies the sectors of agriculture, water, health, and energy as Tanzania's most vulnerable sectors to climate change. [8] In 2012, Tanzania produced a National Climate Change Strategy in response to the growing concern of the negative impact of climate change and climate variability on the country’s social, economic and physical environment. [9] In 2015, Tanzania submitted its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC). [10]

Impacts on the natural environment

Fishing boat off Dar es Salaam - fishing will be affected by changes to ecosystems due to climate change. Large fishing boat in Dar es Salaam.jpg
Fishing boat off Dar es Salaam - fishing will be affected by changes to ecosystems due to climate change.

Between 1981 and 2016 there are marked areas of drying in parts of northeast and much of southern Tanzania. In contrast, moderate wetting trends occurred in central Tanzania and stronger wetting trends in the northwest of the country. [5] A clear warming trend is apparent in annual temperature. By the 2090s projected warming is in the range of 1.6 to 5.0 °C, also evenly distributed across the country. [5] For rainfall there is strong agreement for decreases in the mean number of rain days and increases in the amount of rainfall on each rainy day (the ‘rainfall intensity’). Taken together these changes suggest more variable rainfall, with both higher likelihood of dry spells (such as droughts) and a higher likelihood of intense rainfall events (often associated with flooding). [5] Climate change impacts of severe droughts, floods, livestock deaths, crop failures and outbreak of disease (such as cholera and malaria) are likely to be regularly observed. [11]

Impacts on people

Economic impacts

Agriculture

Tanzanian rice farmer - agricultural activities will be affected by climate change. Tanzanian Rice Farmer.JPG
Tanzanian rice farmer - agricultural activities will be affected by climate change.

Agriculture (including livestock) is the dominant sector in the Tanzanian economy, providing livelihood, income and employment. [12] It is also identified as the sector most vulnerable to climate change. [8] An increase in temperature by 2 °C - 4 °C is likely to alter the distribution of Tanzania's seven agro-ecological zones. Areas that used to grow perennial crops would be suitable for annual crops. Climate change would tend to accelerate plant growth and reduce the length of growing seasons. [8] Vulnerability in the agricultural sector is likely to include decreased crop production of different crops exacerbated by climatic variability and unpredictability of seasonality, erosion of natural resource base and environmental degradation. [8]

A 2011 study found that crop yields are both affected by heating and increased variability. An increase in temperature by 2 °C during the growing season as projected by 2050 will likely reduce yields of rice, sorghum and maize by 7.6%, 8.8% and 13% respectively in Tanzania. A 20% increase in precipitation variability between seasons was found to decrease yields of rice, sorghum and maize by 7.6%, 7.2% and 4.2% respectively by 2050. [13] For example a severe drought in Dodoma resulted in an 80% decrease in harvest. [14]

Health impacts

There are a number of climate-sensitive diseases in Tanzania that may become more prevalent during drought and flooding. [15] [14] Water related diseases such as cholera and malaria may increase in Tanzania due to climate change. [15]

In parts of Tanzania, cholera outbreaks have been linked with increased rainfall. [16] Cholera outbreaks in North East, South East, Lake Victoria basin and coastal areas of Tanzania were due to high rainfall. [16] [17] Research has also shown that initial risk of cholera increased by 15% to 19% for every 1 °C temperature increase. [18] It was further projected that in 2030 the total costs of cholera attributable to climate change variability will be in the range of 0.32% to 1.4% of national GDP for Tanzania. [18] [19]

The incidence of malaria are known to be highest during heavy rainfall and high temperatures as it makes mosquitoes’ habitats (such as ponds, pools, wells or bores, streams, rivers and canals) suitable breeding sites. [20] [17] For example, a study conducted in Lushoto district, Tanzania, reported that malaria cases were prominent during high rainfall seasons and there was a link to an increase in temperatures. [17]

Mitigation and adaptation

Policies and legislation for adaptation

Cleaning solar panels Cleaning solar panel.jpg
Cleaning solar panels

Tanzania produced a National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs) in 2007 as mandated by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The overall vision of Tanzania’s NAPA is to identify immediate and urgent climate change adaptation actions that are robust enough to lead to long-term sustainable development in a changing climate. [8] The NAPA identifies the sectors of agriculture, water, health, and energy as Tanzania's most vulnerable sectors to climate change. [8] Dissemination and expansion of low-cost, readily available technology such as fuel wood-burning stoves, as well as continued investment in alternative energy sources such as wind and solar. [19]

Tanzania has outlined priority adaptation measures in their NAPA, and various national sector strategies and research outputs. [21] The NAPA has been successful at encouraging climate change mainstreaming into sector policies in Tanzania; however, the cross-sectoral collaboration crucial to implementing adaptation strategies remains limited due to institutional challenges such as power imbalances, budget constraints and an ingrained sectoral approach. [22] Most of the projects in Tanzania concern agriculture and water resource management (irrigation, water saving, rainwater collection); however, energy and tourism also play an important role. [23]

In 2012, Tanzania produced a National Climate Change Strategy in response to the growing concern of the negative impacts of climate change and climate variability on the country’s social, economic and physical environment. [9] In 2015, Tanzania submitted its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC). [10]

See also

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Geography of Senegal</span>

Senegal is a coastal West African nation located 14 degrees north of the equator and 14 degrees west of the Prime Meridian. The country's total area is 196,190 km2 of which 192,000 km2 is land and 4,190 km2 is water.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate change in Bangladesh</span> Emissions, effects and responses of Bangladesh related to climate change

Climate change is a critical issue in Bangladesh as the country is one of the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. In the 2020 edition of Germanwatch's Climate Risk Index, it ranked seventh in the list of countries most affected by climate calamities during the period 1999–2018. Bangladesh's vulnerability to the effects of climate change is due to a combination of geographical factors, such as its flat, low-lying, and delta-exposed topography, and socio-economic factors, including its high population density, levels of poverty, and dependence on agriculture. The impacts and potential threats include sea level rise, temperature rise, food crises, droughts, floods, and cyclones.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate change in Africa</span> Emissions, impacts and responses of the African continent related to climate change

Climate change in Africa is an increasingly serious threat as Africa is among the most vulnerable continents to the effects of climate change. Some sources even classify Africa as "the most vulnerable continent on Earth". Climate change and climate variability will likely reduce agricultural production, food security and water security. As a result, there will be negative consequences on people's lives and sustainable development in Africa.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate change in Nepal</span> Emissions, impacts and responses of Nepal related to climate change

Globally, Nepal is ranked fourth in terms of vulnerability to climate change. Floods spread across the foothills of the Himalayas and bring landslides, leaving tens of thousands of houses and vast areas of farmland and roads destroyed. In the 2020 edition of Germanwatch's Climate Risk Index, it was judged to be the ninth hardest-hit nation by climate calamities during the period 1999 to 2018. Nepal is a least developed country, with 28.6 percent of the population living in multidimensional poverty. Analysis of trends from 1971 to 2014 by the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) shows that the average annual maximum temperature has been increasing by 0.056 °C per year. Precipitation extremes are found to be increasing. A national-level survey on the perception-based survey on climate change reported that locals accurately perceived the shifts in temperature but their perceptions of precipitation change did not converge with the instrumental records. Data reveals that more than 80 percent of property loss due to disasters is attributable to climate hazards, particularly water-related events such as floods, landslides and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs).

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate change in Pakistan</span> Emissions, impacts and responses of Pakistan related to climate change

Climate change in Pakistan is a major issue for the country. Pakistan is highly vulnerable to climate change. As with the changing climate in South Asia as a whole, the climate of Pakistan has changed over the past several decades, with significant impacts on the environment and people. In addition to increased heat, drought and extreme weather in parts of the country, the melting of glaciers in the Himalayas has impacted some of the important rivers of Pakistan. Between 1999 and 2018, Pakistan ranked 5th in the countries affected by extreme weather caused by climate change. Pakistan is prone to a range of natural disasters, including cyclones, floods, drought, intense rainfall, and earthquakes. According to scientific research, climate change played a substantial role in the devastating floods of 2022, which had a direct impact on over 30 million people in Pakistan, resulting in the loss of lives, damage to public infrastructure, and displacement from homes. Climate change poses a significant menace to Pakistan's economy and security.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Effects of climate change on agriculture</span> Effects of climate change on agriculture

There are numerous effects of climate change on agriculture, many of which are making it harder for agricultural activities to provide global food security. Rising temperatures and changing weather patterns often result in lower crop yields due to water scarcity caused by drought, heat waves and flooding. These effects of climate change can also increase the risk of several regions suffering simultaneous crop failures. Currently this risk is regarded as rare but if these simultaneous crop failures did happen they would have significant consequences for the global food supply. Many pests and plant diseases are also expected to either become more prevalent or to spread to new regions. The world's livestock are also expected to be affected by many of the same issues, from greater heat stress to animal feed shortfalls and the spread of parasites and vector-borne diseases.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate change in the Philippines</span> Impact of climate change on the Philippines

Climate change is having serious impacts in the Philippines such as increased frequency and severity of natural disasters, sea level rise, extreme rainfall, resource shortages, and environmental degradation. All of these impacts together have greatly affected the Philippines' agriculture, water, infrastructure, human health, and coastal ecosystems and they are projected to continue having devastating damages to the economy and society of the Philippines.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate change in Egypt</span>

Climate change is causing Egypt’s already hot and arid climate to experience environmental stresses including extreme temperatures, droughts, floods, and sea level rise. These extreme conditions will have significant impacts on the lives of Egyptians resulting in food insecurity, water scarcity, and economic destabilization.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate change in Ghana</span> Emissions, impacts, and responses of Ghana related to climate change

Climate change in Ghana is impacting the people in Ghana in several ways as the country sits at the intersection of three hydro-climatic zones. Changes in rainfall, weather conditions and sea-level rise will affect the salinity of coastal waters. This is expected to negatively affect both farming and fisheries.

Climate change in Somalia refers to changes in the climate in Somalia and the subsequent response, adaption and mitigation strategies of the country. Climate models predict that the East Africa region is likely to experience both near-term alterations in climate such as warmer temperatures, changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events, and decreased precipitation, as well as long-term shifts such as sea level rise.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate change in Senegal</span> Emissions, impacts and responses of Senegal related to climate change

Climate change in Senegal will have wide reaching impacts on many aspects of life in Senegal. Climate change will cause an increase in average temperatures over west Africa by between 1.5 and 4 °C by mid-century, relative to 1986–2005. Projections of rainfall indicate an overall decrease in rainfall and an increase in intense mega-storm events over the Sahel. The sea level is expected to rise faster in West Africa than the global average. Although Senegal is currently not a major contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions, it is one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate change in Kenya</span> Emissions, impacts and responses of Kenya related to climate change

Climate change is posing an increasing threat to global socio-economic development and environmental sustainability. Developing countries with low adaptive capacity and high vulnerability to the phenomenon are disproportionately affected. Climate change in Kenya is increasingly impacting the lives of Kenya's citizens and the environment. Climate Change has led to more frequent extreme weather events like droughts which last longer than usual, irregular and unpredictable rainfall, flooding and increasing temperatures.

Climate change and agriculture are complexly related processes. In the United States, agriculture is the second largest emitter of greenhouse gases (GHG), behind the energy sector. Direct GHG emissions from the agricultural sector account for 8.4% of total U.S. emissions, but the loss of soil organic carbon through soil erosion indirectly contributes to emissions as well. While agriculture plays a role in propelling climate change, it is also affected by the direct and secondary consequences of climate change. USDA research indicates that these climatic changes will lead to a decline in yield and nutrient density in key crops, as well as decreased livestock productivity. Climate change poses unprecedented challenges to U.S. agriculture due to the sensitivity of agricultural productivity and costs to changing climate conditions. Rural communities dependent on agriculture are particularly vulnerable to climate change threats.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate change in Nigeria</span> Emissions, impacts and response of Nigeria related to climate change

Climate change in Nigeria is evident from temperature increase, rainfall variability. It is also reflected in drought, desertification, rising sea levels, erosion, floods, thunderstorms, bush fires, landslides, land degradation, more frequent, extreme weather conditions and loss of biodiversity. All of which continues to negatively affect human and animal life and also the ecosystems in Nigeria. Although, depending on the location, regions experience climate change with significant higher temperatures during the dry seasons while rainfalls during rainy seasons help keep the temperature at milder levels. The effects of climate change prompted the World Meteorological Organization, in its 40th Executive Council 1988, to establish a new international scientific assessment panel to be called the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The 2007 IPCC's fourth and final Assessment Report (AR4) revealed that there is a considerable threat of climate change that requires urgent global attention. The report further attributed the present global warming to largely anthropogenic practices. The Earth is almost at a point of no return as it faces environmental threats which include atmospheric and marine pollution, global warming, ozone depletion, the dangers of pollution by nuclear and other hazardous substances, and the extinction of various wildlife species.

Climate change in Botswana refers to changes in the climate in Botswana and the subsequent response, adaptation and mitigation strategies of the country. It is expected to lead to increased intensity of droughts and increased frequencies this is due to shorter rainy seasons and fewer rainy days. Due to fluctuation on climate and weather the country may sometimes experience heavy destructive rains.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate change in Zimbabwe</span>

Climate change impacts are occurring in Zimbabwe. Climate change is the result of the Earth's climate undergoing long-term changes due to the release of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4). These gases trap heat in the atmosphere, leading to global warming and a hotter planet. Human activities, such as the use of fossil fuels, as well as large-scale commercial agriculture and deforestation, are responsible for the release of these greenhouse gases. The country's contribution to greenhouse gas emissions is very minimal.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate change in Namibia</span>

Climate change is the consequence of long-term alterations in the Earth's climate caused by the emission of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4). These gases can trap heat in the atmosphere, resulting in global warming and a heightened temperature on our planet. The activities carried out by humans, such as the utilization of fossil fuels, along with large-scale commercial agriculture and deforestation, are accountable for the release of these greenhouse gases. The escalating temperatures and escalating extreme heat conditions, uncertain and progressively unpredictable precipitation, and extreme weather provoke new challenges and exacerbate existing ones.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate change in Lesotho</span>

Lesotho is a country in southern Africa that is already experiencing the negative effects of climate change, including increased frequency of extreme weather, such as droughts, increased rates of soil erosion and desertification, and reduced soil fertility. Lesotho is a landlocked country that is particularly vulnerable to the negative impacts of climate variability and changes in water and food security, as well as adverse conditions to health, human settlements, and the energy sector.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate change in Malawi</span>

Malawi is a land-locked country in southeastern Africa situated along the southernmost arm of the East African Rift-Valley System between latitudes 9°22’ and 17°03’ south of the equator, and longitudes 33°40’ and 35°55’ east of the Greenwich meridian. It shares borders with Tanzania in the north and northeast, Mozambique in the southwest, south, and east, and Zambia in the west. Malawi is highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change as the vast majority of Malawians rely on small-scale, rain-fed agriculture, making them highly dependent on weather patterns. Climate change increasingly exacerbates droughts, flooding, and inconsistent rainfall—contributing to food insecurity and threatening to derail progress toward Malawi’s goal of self-reliance.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate change in Eritrea</span>

Eritrea, a small coastal nation situated along the Red Sea in the Horn of Africa, is one of the most vulnerable countries of the world to the adverse effects of climate change and increased climate variability has already been evidenced in the country.

References

  1. ↑ Hausfather, Zeke; Peters, Glen (29 January 2020). "Emissions – the 'business as usual' story is misleading". Nature. 577 (7792): 618–20. Bibcode:2020Natur.577..618H. doi: 10.1038/d41586-020-00177-3 . PMID   31996825.
  2. ↑ Schuur, Edward A.G.; Abbott, Benjamin W.; Commane, Roisin; Ernakovich, Jessica; Euskirchen, Eugenie; Hugelius, Gustaf; Grosse, Guido; Jones, Miriam; Koven, Charlie; Leshyk, Victor; Lawrence, David; Loranty, Michael M.; Mauritz, Marguerite; Olefeldt, David; Natali, Susan; Rodenhizer, Heidi; Salmon, Verity; Schädel, Christina; Strauss, Jens; Treat, Claire; Turetsky, Merritt (2022). "Permafrost and Climate Change: Carbon Cycle Feedbacks From the Warming Arctic". Annual Review of Environment and Resources. 47: 343–371. doi: 10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-011847 . Medium-range estimates of Arctic carbon emissions could result from moderate climate emission mitigation policies that keep global warming below 3°C (e.g., RCP4.5). This global warming level most closely matches country emissions reduction pledges made for the Paris Climate Agreement...
  3. ↑ Phiddian, Ellen (5 April 2022). "Explainer: IPCC Scenarios". Cosmos . Archived from the original on 20 September 2023. Retrieved 30 September 2023. "The IPCC doesn't make projections about which of these scenarios is more likely, but other researchers and modellers can. The Australian Academy of Science, for instance, released a report last year stating that our current emissions trajectory had us headed for a 3°C warmer world, roughly in line with the middle scenario. Climate Action Tracker predicts 2.5 to 2.9°C of warming based on current policies and action, with pledges and government agreements taking this to 2.1°C.
  4. 1 2 "Tanzania". Climatelinks. Retrieved 2020-11-27.
  5. 1 2 3 4 Future Climate for Africa. "Future climate projections for Tanzania" (PDF). Future Climate for Africa.
  6. 1 2 3 4 "Tanzania | UNDP Climate Change Adaptation". www.adaptation-undp.org. Retrieved 2020-11-27.
  7. ↑ "Tanzania: Floods in Dar es Salaam - Emergency Plan of Action Final Report n° MDRTZ024 / PTZ040 - United Republic of Tanzania". ReliefWeb. Retrieved 2020-11-27.
  8. 1 2 3 4 5 6 United Republic of Tanzania (2007). "National Adaptation Programme of Action" (PDF). UNFCCC.
  9. 1 2 "Tanzania: National climate change strategy - National Policy, Plans & Statements - PreventionWeb.net". www.preventionweb.net. Archived from the original on 2021-04-17. Retrieved 2020-11-27.
  10. 1 2 United Republic of Tanzania (2015). "Tanzania Intended Nationally Determined Contributions" (PDF).
  11. ↑ Levira, Pamela William (2009-02-01). "Climate change impact in agriculture sector in Tanzania and its mitigation measure". IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science. 6 (37): 372049. Bibcode:2009E&ES....6K2049L. doi:10.1088/1755-1307/6/37/372049. ISSN   1755-1315. S2CID   250673924.
  12. ↑ "New Agriculturist: Country profile - Tanzania". www.new-ag.info. Retrieved 2020-11-28.
  13. ↑ Rowhani, Pedram; Lobell, David B.; Linderman, Marc; Ramankutty, Navin (2011-04-15). "Climate variability and crop production in Tanzania". Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 151 (4): 449–460. Bibcode:2011AgFM..151..449R. doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2010.12.002. ISSN   0168-1923.
  14. 1 2 Shemsanga, Ceven; Muzuka, A. N. N.; Martz, L.; Komakech, H.; Omambia, Anne Nyatichi (2017), Chen, Wei-Yin; Suzuki, Toshio; Lackner, Maximilian (eds.), "Statistics in Climate Variability, Dry Spells, and Implications for Local Livelihoods in Semiarid Regions of Tanzania: The Way Forward", Handbook of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation, Cham: Springer International Publishing, pp. 801–848, doi:10.1007/978-3-319-14409-2_66, ISBN   978-3-319-14409-2 , retrieved 2020-11-29
  15. 1 2 Mboera, Leonard E. G.; Mayala, Benjamin K.; Kweka, Eliningaya J.; Mazigo, Humphrey D. (2011). "Impact of climate change on human health and health systems in Tanzania: a review". Tanzania Journal of Health Research. 13 (5 Suppl 1): 407–426. doi: 10.4314/thrb.v13i5.10 . ISSN   1821-6404. PMID   26591995.
  16. 1 2 Hulme, Mike; Doherty, Ruth; Ngara, Todd; New, Mark; Lister, David (2001-08-15). "African climate change: 1900-2100". Climate Research. 17 (2): 145–168. Bibcode:2001ClRes..17..145H. doi: 10.3354/cr017145 . ISSN   0936-577X.
  17. 1 2 3 Ojija, Fredrick; Abihudi, Siri; Mwendwa, Beatus; Leweri, Cecilia M.; Chisanga, Kafula (2017-07-28). "The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture and Health Sectors in Tanzania: A review". International Journal of Environment, Agriculture and Biotechnology. 2 (4): 1758–1766. doi: 10.22161/ijeab/2.4.37 .
  18. 1 2 Trærup, Sara L. M.; Ortiz, Ramon A.; Markandya, Anil (2011-11-28). "The Costs of Climate Change: A Study of Cholera in Tanzania". International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 8 (12): 4386–4405. doi: 10.3390/ijerph8124386 . ISSN   1660-4601. PMC   3290983 . PMID   22408580.
  19. 1 2 Shemsanga, Ceven; Omambia, Anne Nyatichi (2010). "The Cost of Climate Change in Tanzania: Impacts and Adaptation". ResearchGate. Retrieved 2023-04-09.
  20. ↑ Ahern, Mike; Kovats, R. Sari; Wilkinson, Paul; Few, Roger; Matthies, Franziska (2005-07-01). "Global Health Impacts of Floods: Epidemiologic Evidence". Epidemiologic Reviews. 27 (1): 36–46. doi: 10.1093/epirev/mxi004 . ISSN   1478-6729. PMID   15958425.
  21. ↑ USAID. "Climate Change Adaptation in Tanzania" (PDF). USAID.
  22. ↑ Pardoe, Joanna; Conway, Declan; Namaganda, Emilinah; Vincent, Katharine; Dougill, Andrew J.; Kashaigili, Japhet J. (9 August 2018). "Climate change and the water–energy–food nexus: insights from policy and practice in Tanzania". Climate Policy. 18 (7): 863–877. doi: 10.1080/14693062.2017.1386082 . ISSN   1469-3062.
  23. ↑ "United Republic of Tanzania | UNDP Climate Change Adaptation". www.adaptation-undp.org. Retrieved 8 August 2019.
This page is based on this Wikipedia article
Text is available under the CC BY-SA 4.0 license; additional terms may apply.
Images, videos and audio are available under their respective licenses.