Arab Winter

Last updated

Arab Winter
Part of the aftermath of the Arab Spring and the War on terror
Char Etat islamique Raqqa.jpg
ISIL fighters on a captured T-55 tank in the Syrian civil war
DateMid-2012 to roughly 2019 (~7 years) (ongoing in some countries)
Location
Middle East, especially Syria, Iraq, Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen and Libya
Caused by Arab Spring
Goals
Methods
Resulted in
See list

The Events after Arab Spring or The Arab Winter [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [lower-alpha 1] is a term referring to the resurgence of authoritarianism and Islamic extremism [6] in some Arab countries in the 2010s in the aftermath of the Arab Spring. [7] The term "Arab Winter" refers to the events across Arab League countries in the Middle East and North Africa, including the Syrian civil war, [8] [9] the Iraqi insurgency and the subsequent War in Iraq, [10] the Egyptian Crisis, [11] the Libyan crisis including both the first and second Libyan civil wars, and the Yemeni crisis including the Yemeni civil war. [12]

Contents

The term was first coined by Chinese political scientist Zhang Weiwei during a debate with American political scientist Francis Fukuyama on June 27, 2011. Fukuyama believed the Arab Spring movement would inevitably spread to China, while Zhang predicted the Arab Spring would soon turn into an Arab Winter. [13] [14]

According to scholars of the University of Warsaw, the Arab Spring fully devolved into the Arab Winter four years after its onset, in 2014. [15] The Arab Winter is characterized by the emergence of multiple regional wars, mounting regional instability, [16] economic and demographic decline of Arab countries, [17] and ethno-religious sectarian strife. [18] According to a study by the American University of Beirut, by the summer of 2014, the Arab Winter had resulted in nearly a quarter of a million deaths and millions of refugees. [19] Perhaps the most significant event in the Arab Winter was the rise of the extremist group Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, which controlled swathes of land in the region from 2014 to 2019. [20]

In 2024, multiple armed conflicts are still continuing that might be seen as a result of the Arab Spring. The Syrian Civil War has caused massive political instability and economic hardship in Syria, with the Syrian currency plunging to new lows. [21] In Yemen, a civil war and subsequent intervention by Saudi Arabia continues to affect the country. [22]

Definition

The term Arab Winter typically includes the following events:

CountryEventStart year
Syria Syrian civil war 2011
Iraq Iraqi insurgency (2011–2013) 2011
War in Iraq (2013–2017) 2013
Egypt Egyptian Crisis (2011–2014) 2011
2013 Egyptian coup d'état 2013
Libya First Libyan Civil War 2011
Second Libyan Civil War 2014
Yemen Yemeni civil war (2014–present) 2014
Lebanon Syrian civil war spillover in Lebanon 2011
Bahrain 2011 Bahraini uprising 2011
Tunisia 2021 Tunisian self-coup 2021

Geography

.mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Government overthrown more than once Government overthrown Civil war Protests and governmental changes Major protests Minor protests Other protests and militant action outside the Arab world Arab Spring and Regional Conflict Map.svg
  Government overthrown more than once  Government overthrown  Civil war  Protests and governmental changes  Major protests  Minor protests  Other protests and militant action outside the Arab world

The term "Arab Winter" refers to the events across Arab League countries in the Middle East and North Africa, including the Syrian civil war, [8] [9] the Iraqi insurgency and the subsequent War in Iraq, [10] the Egyptian Crisis, [11] the First Libyan Civil War and the subsequent Second Libyan Civil War, and the Yemeni civil war. [12] Events referred to as the Arab Winter include those in Egypt that led to the removal from office in 2013 of Mohamed Morsi and the subsequent election in 2014 of Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. [23]

Political developments, particularly the restoration of authoritarianism and suppression of civil liberties in Egypt since July 3, 2013, have been described as constituting a "military winter" that functioned in opposition to the goals of the Arab Spring. [24] [25] Various militias and tribes have started fighting in Libya after a breakdown in negotiations. [26] The arenas of Lebanon and Bahrain were also identified as areas of the Arab Winter. [17]

Libya was named as a scene of the Arab Winter, together with Syria, by Professor Sean Yom. [26] The Northern Mali conflict was often described as part of the "Islamist Winter". [27] Political changes which occurred in Tunisia, involving a change in government, as well as an ISIL insurgency, were also indicated by some as a possible "heading towards Arab Winter". [23] [ clarification needed ]

Beginning date

The first cases of usage of the Arab Winter term can be found since February 1, 2011.

Then, the Arab Winter term began circulating in the media in late 2012 and getting popular since then, referring to the deterioration of many Arab Spring conflicts into prolonging and escalating events of sectarian strife and armed violence. In its December 2012 publication, The Daily Telegraph referred to the year 2012 as the year of Arab Winter. [1]

According to scholars of the University of Warsaw, the Arab Spring fully devolved into the Arab Winter four years after its onset. [28] This view was also supported by Prof. James Y. Simms Jr. in his 2015 opinion article for the Richmond Times-Dispatch . [29] In early 2016, The Economist marked the situation across Arab world countries as "worse than ever", marking it as the ongoing Arab Winter. [30]

Impact

Economic impact

According to the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies, as of January 2014, the cost of Arab Winter upheaval across the Arab World was some $800 billion USD. [17] Some 16 million people in Syria, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon were expected to require humanitarian assistance in 2014. [17]

According to The Economist , Malta has "benefitted" from the Arab Winter, as tourists who might otherwise be in Egypt or Tunisia opt for a safer alternative. [31]

Casualties

According to a study by the American University of Beirut, as of the summer of 2014, the Arab Winter had resulted in nearly a quarter of a million deaths and millions of refugees. [19]

Political columnist and commentator George Will reported that as of early 2017, over 30,000 lives had been lost in Libya, 220,000–320,000 had been killed in Syria and 4 million refugees had been produced by the Syrian Civil War alone. [29]

The Arab Winter is still ongoing as of 2021. Casualties per crisis include:

Migrant crisis

A Syrian refugee camp on the Turkish border for displaced people of the Syrian Civil War (2012) Syrian refugee camp on theTurkish border.jpg
A Syrian refugee camp on the Turkish border for displaced people of the Syrian Civil War (2012)

The political turmoil and violence in the Middle East and North Africa resulted in massive population displacement in the region. [33] As a result, "boat people", which was once commonly referred to Vietnamese boat people, became frequently used, including internally displaced persons and asylum-seekers and refugees who had previously been residing in Libya, Syria, and Iraq have headed towards the European Union. [34]

The attempts by some Libyans, Syrians and Tunisians to seek safety from the violence by crossing the Mediterranean sea have triggered fears among European politicians and populations of arrivals that might "flood" their shores. This has spurred a flurry of legislative activity and patrolling of the waters to manage arrivals. [34] Despite recent efforts at a common approach to migration by the European Union Hungary and Poland have not been convinced yet. [35] Monetary support authorised by the German legislature for private rescue operations at sea have triggered Italian government animosity. [36] [37] [38]

Notes

  1. ↑ (Arabic: الشتاء العربي, romanized: ash-shitāʼ al-ʻarabī)

See also

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">United Arab Republic</span> Sovereign state in the Middle East (1958–1971)

The United Arab Republic was a sovereign state in the Middle East from 1958 until 1961. It was initially a political union between Egypt and Syria from 1958 until Syria seceded from the union following the 1961 Syrian coup d'état. Egypt continued to be known officially as the United Arab Republic until it was formally dissolved by Anwar Sadat in September 1971.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Arab League</span> Regional organization

The Arab League, formally the League of Arab States, is a regional organization in the Arab world. The Arab League was formed in Cairo on 22 March 1945, initially with seven members: Egypt, Iraq, Transjordan, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and North Yemen. Currently, the League has 22 members.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Arab world</span> Geographical and cultural region in Africa and the Middle East

The Arab world, formally the Arab homeland, also known as the Arab nation, the Arabsphere, or the Arab states, comprises a large group of countries, mainly located in West Asia and North Africa. While the majority of people in the Arab world are ethnically Arab, there are also significant populations of other ethnic groups such as Berbers, Kurds, Somalis and Nubians, among other groups. Arabic is used as the lingua franca throughout the Arab world.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Flag of Syria</span>

The national flag of Syria was first adopted in 1958 to represent Syria as part of the United Arab Republic, and was used until 1961. It was readopted in 1980. Since its first adoption, variations of the red-white-black flag have been used in various Arab Unions of Syria with Egypt, Libya, Sudan, Yemen, and Iraq. Although Syria is not part of any Arab state union, the flag of the United Arab Republic was readopted to show Syria's commitment to Arab unity. The usage of the flag has become disputed because it is often associated with the Ba'ath Party and has come to represent parties loyal to Bashar al-Assad's government in the Syrian civil war.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Middle East and North Africa</span> Geographic region

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA), also referred to as West Asia and North Africa (WANA) or South West Asia and North Africa (SWANA), is a geographic region which comprises the Middle East and North Africa together. However, it is widely considered to be a more defined and apolitical alternative to the concept of the Greater Middle East, which comprises the bulk of the Muslim world. The region has no standardized definition and groupings may vary, but the term typically includes countries like Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, the UAE, and Yemen.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Arab League–Iran relations</span> Bilateral relations

The dynamic between the League of Arab States and the Islamic Republic of Iran has been ambivalent, owing to the latter's varying bilateral conduct with each country of the former. Iran is located on the easternmost frontier of the Arab League, which consists of 22 Arab countries and spans the bulk of the Middle East and North Africa, of which Iran is also a part. The Arab League's population is dominated by ethnic Arabs, whereas Iran's population is dominated by ethnic Persians; and while both sides have Islam as a common religion, their sects differ, with Sunnis constituting the majority in the Arab League and Shias constituting the majority in Iran. Since Iran's Islamic Revolution in 1979, the country's Shia theocracy has attempted to assert itself as the legitimate religious and political leadership of all Muslims, contesting a status that has generally been understood as belonging to Sunni-majority Saudi Arabia, where the cities of Mecca and Medina are located. This animosity, manifested in the Iran–Saudi Arabia proxy conflict, has greatly exacerbated the Shia–Sunni divide throughout the Muslim world.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Saudi Arabia–Turkey relations</span> Bilateral relations

Saudi Arabia and Turkey relations have long fluctuated between cooperation and alliance to enmity and distrust. Since the 19th century, the two nations have always had a complicated relationship. While Turkey and Saudi Arabia are major economic partners, the two have a tense political relationship, stemming partially from the historic enmity.

The Arab Cold War was a political rivalry in the Arab world from the early 1950s to the late 1970s and a part of the wider Cold War. It is generally accepted that the beginning of the Arab Cold War is marked by the Egyptian revolution of 1952, which led to Gamal Abdel Nasser becoming president of Egypt in 1956. Thereafter, newly formed Arab republics, inspired by revolutionary secular nationalism and Nasser's Egypt, engaged in political rivalries with conservative traditionalist Arab monarchies, influenced by Saudi Arabia. The Iranian Revolution of 1979, and the ascension of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini as leader of Iran, is widely seen as the end of this period of internal conflicts and rivalry. A new era of Arab-Iranian tensions followed, overshadowing the bitterness of intra-Arab strife.

Arabs in Berlin form the second-largest ethnic minority group in Berlin, after the Turkish, surpassing Polish and Russian community. As of December 2023, there are 182,635 people of any Arab origin residing in the city, which corresponds to 4.7% of the population, an increase of 1.2% from 2017 percentage.

The Arab League has 22 member states. It was founded in Cairo in March 1945 with seven members: the Kingdom of Egypt, Kingdom of Iraq, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Syrian Republic, Transjordan, and North Yemen. Membership increased during the second half of the 20th century. Seven countries have observer status. The headquarters are located in Cairo, Egypt.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Arab Spring</span> Protests and revolutions in the Arab world in the 2010s

The Arab Spring or the First Arab Spring was a series of anti-government protests, uprisings and armed rebellions that spread across much of the Arab world in the early 2010s. It began in Tunisia in response to corruption and economic stagnation. From Tunisia, the protests then spread to five other countries: Libya, Egypt, Yemen, Syria and Bahrain. Rulers were deposed or major uprisings and social violence occurred including riots, civil wars, or insurgencies. Sustained street demonstrations took place in Morocco, Iraq, Algeria, Lebanon, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman and Sudan. Minor protests took place in Djibouti, Mauritania, Palestine, Saudi Arabia and the Moroccan-occupied Western Sahara. A major slogan of the demonstrators in the Arab world is ash-shaʻb yurīd isqāṭ an-niẓām!.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Ba'ath Party (Iraqi-dominated faction)</span> Iraqi-dominated faction of the Baath party

The Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party, also referred to as the pro-Iraqi Ba'ath movement, is a Ba'athist political party which was headquartered in Baghdad, Iraq, until 2003. It is one of two parties which emerged from the 1966 split of the original Ba'ath Party.

The Axis of Resistance is an informal Iranian-led political and military coalition in the Middle East.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Women in the Arab Spring</span>

Women played a variety of roles in the Arab Spring, but its impact on women and their rights is unclear. The Arab Spring was a series of demonstrations, protests, and civil wars against authoritarian regimes that started in Tunisia and spread to much of the Arab world. The leaders of Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Yemen were overthrown; Bahrain has experienced sustained civil disorder, and the protests in Syria have become a civil war. Other Arab countries experienced protests as well.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Arab Nationalist Guard</span> Volunteer militia

The Arab Nationalist Guard is a secular volunteer militia force operating in Syria. The group espouses an Arab nationalist ideology. The Arab Nationalist Guard's membership includes nationalists from a variety of Arab countries.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Iran–Saudi Arabia proxy conflict</span> Indirect conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia

Iran and Saudi Arabia are engaged in an ongoing struggle for influence in the Middle East and other regions of the Muslim world. The two countries have provided varying degrees of support to opposing sides in nearby conflicts, including the civil wars in Syria and Yemen; and disputes in Bahrain, Lebanon, Qatar, and Iraq. The struggle also extends to disputes or broader competition in other countries globally including in West, North and East Africa, South, Central, Southeast Asia, the Balkans, and the Caucasus.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Qatar–Saudi Arabia diplomatic conflict</span> Diplomatic issue between Qatar and Saudi Arabia

The Qatar–Saudi Arabia diplomatic conflict refers to the ongoing struggle for regional influence between Qatar and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), both of which are members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). It is sometimes called the New Arab Cold War. Bilateral relations have been especially strained since the beginning of the Arab Spring, that left a power vacuum both states sought to fill, with Qatar being supportive of the revolutionary wave and Saudi Arabia opposing it. Both states are allies of the United States, and have avoided direct conflict with one another.

References

  1. 1 2 Spencer, Richard (December 31, 2012). "Middle East review of 2012: the Arab Winter". The Telegraph. Archived from the original on June 10, 2019. Retrieved July 19, 2014.
  2. ↑ "Analysis: Arab Winter is coming to Baghdad". The Telegraph. The Jerusalem Post. June 15, 2014. Archived from the original on July 14, 2019. Retrieved October 8, 2014.
  3. ↑ "Expert Warns of America's Coming 'Arab Winter'". CBN. September 8, 2014. Archived from the original on December 9, 2018. Retrieved October 8, 2014.
  4. ↑ "The Arab Winter". The New Yorker. December 28, 2011. Archived from the original on September 25, 2018. Retrieved October 8, 2014.
  5. ↑ "Arab Spring or Arab Winter?". The New Yorker. Archived from the original on July 18, 2019. Retrieved October 8, 2014.
  6. ↑ Yun Ru Phua (March 31, 2015). "After Every Winter Comes Spring: Tunisia's Democratic Flowering – Berkeley Political Review". Bpr.berkeley.edu. Archived from the original on July 29, 2017. Retrieved February 11, 2017.
  7. ↑ Ahmed H Adam and Ashley D Robinson. Will the Arab Winter spring again in Sudan?. Al-Jazeera. 11 June 2016. Archived February 8, 2018, at the Wayback Machine "The Arab Spring that swept across the Middle East and succeeded in overthrowing three dictatorships in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya in 2011 was a pivotal point in the history of nations. Despite the subsequent descent into the "Arab Winter", the peaceful protests of young people were heroic..."
  8. 1 2 Karber, Phil (June 18, 2012). Fear and Faith in Paradise. Rowman & Littlefield Publishers. ISBN   978-1-4422-1479-8. Archived from the original on September 23, 2023. Retrieved October 23, 2014.
  9. 1 2 "Arab Winter". America Staging. December 28, 2012. Archived from the original on October 26, 2014. Retrieved October 23, 2014.
  10. 1 2 "Analysis: Arab Winter is coming to Baghdad". The Jerusalem Post. June 15, 2014. Archived from the original on July 14, 2019. Retrieved October 23, 2014.
  11. 1 2 "Egypt and Tunisia's new 'Arab winter'". Euro news. February 8, 2013. Archived from the original on June 29, 2019. Retrieved October 23, 2014.
  12. 1 2 "Yemen's Arab winter". Middle East Eye. Archived from the original on September 30, 2018. Retrieved October 23, 2014.
  13. ↑ Zhang, Weiwei (March 21, 2012). China Wave, The: Rise Of A Civilizational State. World Century Publishing Corporation. p. 158. ISBN   978-1-938134-03-6. Archived from the original on September 23, 2023. Retrieved September 5, 2022. My observation of the Middle East has led me to conclude that, while many in the West cheer the Arab Spring, one shouldn't be too optimistic. I hope the region will do well, but it will be difficult, and the Arab Spring today may well turn into an Arab Winter in a not-too-distant future with the American interest undermined.
  14. ↑ Fukuyama, Francis; Weiwei, Zhang (2011). "The China Model: A Dialogue between Francis Fukuyama and Zhang Weiwei". New Perspectives Quarterly. 28 (4): 40–67. doi:10.1111/j.1540-5842.2011.01287.x. ISSN   1540-5842. Archived from the original on June 14, 2021. Retrieved June 15, 2021.
  15. ↑ Fiedler, Radoslaw; Osiewicz, Przemyslaw (August 17, 2015). Transformation processes in Egypt after 2011: The causes, their course and international response. Logos Verlag Berlin GmbH. p. 182. ISBN   978-3-8325-4049-4. Archived from the original on September 23, 2023. Retrieved September 5, 2022.
  16. ↑ Wolff, Stefan (April 17, 2014). "From Egypt to Syria, this could be the start of the Arab Winter". The Conversation . Archived from the original on July 18, 2019.
  17. 1 2 3 4 Rivlin, P (January 2014), Iqtisadi (PDF), Dayan Research Center, archived from the original (PDF) on October 23, 2014, retrieved October 18, 2014
  18. ↑ Malmvig, Lassen (2013), Arab uprisings: regional implication (PDF), IEMED, archived from the original (PDF) on September 24, 2015, retrieved October 18, 2014
  19. 1 2 "Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa – between the Arab Winter and the Arab Spring" (PDF), International Affairs , LB, August 28, 2013, archived from the original (PDF) on October 18, 2014, retrieved October 18, 2014
  20. ↑ Wilner, Michael (June 15, 2014). "Analysis: Arab Winter is coming to Baghdad". The Jerusalem Post . Archived from the original on July 14, 2019. Retrieved August 21, 2018.
  21. ↑ Chulov, Martin (June 12, 2020). "US 'Caesar Act' sanctions could devastate Syria's flatlining economy". The Guardian . Archived from the original on August 15, 2022.
  22. ↑ "Yemen's Government demands UN action regards Houthi violation of deal". Arab News . June 12, 2020. Archived from the original on September 23, 2023.
  23. 1 2 "Egypt & Tunisia's new Arab winter", Euro news, February 8, 2013, archived from the original on June 29, 2019, retrieved October 18, 2014
  24. ↑ Hayden, Tom (July 5, 2013). "The Coup in Egypt: An Arab Winter?". The Nation. Archived from the original on June 26, 2015. Retrieved November 1, 2014.
  25. ↑ Jones, Sophia (January 21, 2014). "In Egypt, Arab Spring Gives Way To Military Winter". The World Post. The Huffington Post. Archived from the original on February 27, 2019. Retrieved November 1, 2014.
  26. 1 2 "Lecture Explores Past and Future Arab Spring". The Daily Gazette. October 10, 2014. Archived from the original on October 19, 2014. Retrieved October 19, 2014.
  27. ↑ "In Mali AQ achieved to infiltrate and take over Tuareg insurgency. If AQ succeeds to keep the Arab Spring countries destabilized, this will lead to a viral reproduction of Azawad scenario. AQ is the "Islamic Winter"." Archived October 9, 2017, at the Wayback Machine
  28. ↑ Radoslaw Fiedler, Przemyslaw Osiewicz. Transformation processes in Egypt after 2011. 2015. p182.
  29. 1 2 James Y. Simms Jr. (August 8, 2015). "Arab Spring to Arab Winter: a predictable debacle in the Middle East". Richmond Times-Dispatch. Archived from the original on July 18, 2019.
  30. ↑ "The Arab winter". The Economist. January 9, 2016. Archived from the original on December 29, 2017.
  31. ↑ "High wall, narrow sea". The Economist. November 14, 2015. Archived from the original on October 19, 2017. Retrieved July 7, 2017.
  32. ↑ "Yemen war will have killed 377,000 by year's end: UN". November 23, 2021. Archived from the original on December 9, 2021. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
  33. ↑ “Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa: Between an Arab Winter and the Arab Spring”. "In the midst of ongoing uprisings, violence, and political turmoil, widespread population displacement took place as a result of the conflict in Libya, the violence in Syria and upheaval in Yemen. In each of these contexts, the new waves of displacement took place in or to areas already struggling with previous waves, leading to multi-layered and complex crises." Archived October 9, 2017, at the Wayback Machine
  34. 1 2 Khallaf, Shaden (August 2013). "Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa: Between an Arab Winter and the Arab Spring" (PDF). Working Paper Series (17). Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs, American University of Beirut. Archived from the original (PDF) on October 9, 2017. Retrieved November 26, 2015.{{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires |journal= (help)
  35. ↑ Baczynska, Gabriela; Landauro, Inti (October 6, 2023). "Poland, Hungary stand alone in opposing EU migration reform". Reuters. Retrieved October 8, 2023.
  36. ↑ red, ORF at/Agenturen (October 8, 2023). "Seenotrettungs-NGOs: Scholz distanziert sich von Finanzierung". news.ORF.at (in German). Retrieved October 8, 2023.
  37. ↑ O'Carroll, Lisa; Bayer, Lili (September 28, 2023). "EU fails to agree changes to migration laws as Germany and Italy clash". The Guardian. ISSN   0261-3077 . Retrieved October 8, 2023.
  38. ↑ "Italy criticises Germany for funding migrant charity groups". Reuters. September 24, 2023. Retrieved October 8, 2023.
This page is based on this Wikipedia article
Text is available under the CC BY-SA 4.0 license; additional terms may apply.
Images, videos and audio are available under their respective licenses.