Demographic history is the reconstructed record of human population in the past. Given the lack of population records prior to the 1950s, there are many gaps in our record of demographic history. Historical demographers must make do with estimates, models and extrapolations. For the demographic methodology, see historical demography.
Estimating the ancestral population of anatomically modern humans, Colin McEvedy and Richard Jones chose bounds based on gorilla and chimpanzee population densities of 1/km2 and 3-4/km2, [1] respectively, then assumed that as Homo erectus moved up the food chain, they lost an order of magnitude in density. With a habitat of 68 million km2 ("the Old World south of latitude 50° north, minus Australia"), Homo erectus could have numbered around 1.7 million individuals. After being replaced by Homo sapiens and moving into the New World and de-glaciated territory, by 10,000 BC world population was approaching four million people. [2] McEvedy and Jones argue that, after populating the maximum available range, this was the limit of our food-gathering ancestors, with further population growth requiring food-producing activities. [3]
The initial population "upswing" began around 5000 BC. Global population gained 50% in the 5th millennium BC, and 100% each millennium until 1000 BC, reaching 50 million people. After the beginning of the Iron Age, growth rate reached its peak with a doubling time of 500 years. However, growth slackened between 500 BC and 1 AD, before ceasing around 200 AD. This "primary cycle" was, at this time in history, confined to Europe, North Africa, and mainland Asia. [4] McEvedy and Jones describe a secondary, "medieval cycle" being led by feudal Europe and Song China from around 900 AD. [5]
During the period from 500 to 900 world population grew slowly but the growth rate accelerated between 900 and 1300 when the population doubled. During the 14th century, there was a fall in population associated with the Black Death that spread from Asia to Europe. This was followed by a period of restrained growth for 300 years. [6]
John F. Richards estimated the following world populations from the early modern period, 1500–1800. [7]
In the 18th century world population entered a period of accelerated growth. European population reached a peak growth rate of 10 per thousand per year in the second half of the 19th century. During the 20th century, the growth rate among the European populations fell and was overtaken by a rapid acceleration in the growth rate in other continents, which reached 21 per thousand per year in the last 50 years of the millennium. Between 1900 and 2000, the population of the world increased by 277%, a fourfold increase from 1.5 billion to 6 billion. The European component increased by 124%, and the remainder by 349%. [6]
The Indian population was about 100 million in 1500. Under the Mughal Empire, the population rose to 160 million in 1700 by 1800 the population rose to 185 million. [8] Mughal India had a relatively high degree of urbanization for its time, with 15% of its population living in urban centres, higher than the percentage of the urban population in contemporary Europe at the time and higher than that of British India in the 19th century. [9] Under the British Raj, the population reached 255 million according to the census taken in 1881. [10] [11] [12] [13]
Studies of India's population since 1881 have focused on such topics as total population, birth and death rates, growth rates, geographic distribution, literacy, the rural and urban divide, cities of a million, and the three cities with populations over eight million: Delhi, Greater Mumbai (Bombay), and Kolkata (Calcutta). [14]
Mortality rates fell in 1920-45 era, primarily due to biological immunization. Other factors included rising incomes and better living conditions, improved better nutrition, a safer and cleaner environmental, and better official health policies and medical care. [15]
Severe overcrowding in the cities caused major public health problems, as noted in an official report from 1938: [16]
China has older bureaucratic records than any other country. [17] For example, Chinese imperial examinations can be dated back to 165 AD. [18] British Economist Angus Maddison estimated Asia's past populations through detailed analysis of China's bureaucratic records and the country's past gross domestic product. [19]
Population of Asia 1-1820 C.E. (million)
Source: Maddison [19]
Year | 1 | 1000 | 1500 | 1600 | 1700 | 1820 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
China | 59.6 | 59.0 | 103.0 | 160.0 | 138.0 | 381.0 |
India | 75.0 | 75.0 | 110.0 | 135.0 | 165.0 | 209.0 |
Japan | 3.0 | 7.5 | 15.4 | 18.5 | 27.0 | 31.0 |
Korea | 1.6 | 3.9 | 8.0 | 10.0 | 12.2 | 13.8 |
Indonesia | 2.8 | 5.2 | 10.7 | 11.7 | 13.1 | 17.9 |
Indochina | 1.1 | 2.2 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 5.9 | 8.9 |
Other East Asia | 5.9 | 9.8 | 14.4 | 16.9 | 19.8 | 23.6 |
Iran | 4.0 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 6.6 |
Turkey | 6.1 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 7.9 | 8.4 | 10.1 |
Other West Asia | 15.1 | 8.5 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 7.4 | 8.5 |
Total Asia | 174.2 | 182.9 | 283.8 | 378.5 | 401.8 | 710.4 |
In the 15th century, China had approximately 100 million population. [20] During the Ming (1368-1644) and Qing (1644-1911) dynasties, China experienced a high population increase. From the years 1749 to 1811 the population doubled from approximately 177 million to 358 million. [21] Advances in China's agriculture made feeding such a growing population possible. However, by 1815 increased rice prices caused landless households to favor feeding male infants which caused an increase in infant female mortality. [22] Middle class households did the opposite due to their higher economic means and their infant female mortality rate declined. [23] The rising cost of rice additionally affected the adult demographics, adult male mortality rate increased more than the adult female mortality rate. [24]
The growing population of China continued into the 21st century. The country continued to face the strenuous issue of how to feed its ever-growing population. In 1979 extreme reform was put into place with the implementation of China's one-child policy. [25]
Karl Julius Beloch (and for Russia, Yaroslav Vodarsky) estimated the population of early modern Europe, circa 1600 as follows: [26] [27]
Country | Population | Remarks |
---|---|---|
Germany | 20,000,000 | Probably including most or all of the territory of the Holy Roman Empire outside Italy, an area of 720,000 km2, about twice the size of Germany today. |
France | 16,000,000 | Within its 1600 borders, covering 470,000 km2, 85% of the size of Metropolitan France today (551,500 km2) |
Italy | 13,000,000 | |
Spain and Portugal | 10,000,000 | |
Russia | 7,000,000 | The population of the Tsardom of Russia within the 1600 borders. |
England and Wales | 4,500,000 | |
Spanish Netherlands | 3,000,000 | Comprised most of today's Belgium, Luxembourg; southern Netherlands (Brabant, Limburg); part of Departement du Nord in France (Lille, Douai); and small parts of Brabant now in Germany like Herzogenrath. About 75,000 km2 - roughly the size of today's Benelux (76,657 km2). |
Kingdom of Poland + Duchy of Prussia | 3,000,000 | Roughly, today's Poland minus Silesia and Pomerania, plus roughly half of today's Ukraine, as far east as Kyiv and Poltava. |
Scotland and Ireland | 2,000,000 | |
Sweden, Norway, and Finland | 1,400,000 | |
Denmark | 600,000 |
India is the most populous country in the world with one-sixth of the world's population. According to estimates from the United Nations (UN), India has overtaken China as the country with the largest population in the world, with a population of 1,425,775,850 at the end of April 2023.
The population of the United Kingdom was estimated at 67,596,281 in 2022. It is the 21st most populated country in the world and has a population density of 279 people per square kilometre, with England having significantly greater density than Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland. Almost a third of the population lives in south east England, which is predominantly urban and suburban, with 8,866,180 people in the capital city, London, whose population density was 5,640 inhabitants per square kilometre (14,600/sq mi) in 2022.
According to data from the 1989 Soviet census, the population of the USSR was made up of 70% East Slavs and 17% Turkic peoples, with no other single ethnic group making up more than 2%. Alongside the atheist majority of 60%, there were sizable minorities of Russian Orthodox Christians and Muslims.
The United States is a country primarily located in North America. Demographics of the United States concern matters of population density, ethnicity, education level, health of the populace, economic status, religious affiliations, and other aspects regarding the population.
In demography, demographic transition is a phenomenon and theory which refers to the historical shift from high birth rates and high death rates to low birth rates and low death rates, as societies attain more technology, education and economic development. The demographic transition has occurred in most of the world over the past two centuries, bringing the unprecedented population growth of the post-Malthusian period, then reducing birth rates and population growth significantly in all regions of the world. The demographic transition strengthens economic growth process by three changes: (i) reduced dilution of capital and land stock, (ii) increased investment in human capital, and (iii) increased size of the labor force relative to the total population and changed age population distribution. Although this shift has occurred in many industrialized countries, the theory and model are frequently imprecise when applied to individual countries due to specific social, political and economic factors affecting particular populations.
Zero population growth, sometimes abbreviated ZPG, is a condition of demographic balance where the number of people in a specified population neither grows nor declines; that is, the number of births plus in-migrants equals the number of deaths plus out-migrants. ZPG has been a prominent political movement since the 1960s.
The total fertility rate (TFR) of a population is the average number of children that are born to a woman over her lifetime, if they were to experience the exact current age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) through their lifetime, and they were to live from birth until the end of their reproductive life.
Population decline, also known as depopulation, is a reduction in a human population size. Throughout history, Earth's total human population has continued to grow; however, current projections suggest that this long-term trend of steady population growth may be coming to an end.
Population growth is the increase in the number of people in a population or dispersed group. Actual global human population growth amounts to around 83 million annually, or 1.1% per year. The global population has grown from 1 billion in 1800 to 8.1 billion in 2024. The UN projected population to keep growing, and estimates have put the total population at 8.6 billion by mid-2030, 9.8 billion by mid-2050 and 11.2 billion by 2100. However, some academics outside the UN have increasingly developed human population models that account for additional downward pressures on population growth; in such a scenario population would peak before 2100. Others have challenged many recent population projections as having underestimated population growth.
The Mongol invasions and conquests took place during the 13th and 14th centuries, creating history's largest contiguous empire, the Mongol Empire (1206–1368), which by 1260 covered large parts of Eurasia. Historians regard the Mongol devastation as one of the deadliest episodes in history.
Demographic dividend, as defined by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), is "the economic growth potential that can result from shifts in a population’s age structure, mainly when the share of the working-age population is larger than the non-working-age share of the population ". In other words, it is "a boost in economic productivity that occurs when there are growing numbers of people in the workforce relative to the number of dependents". UNFPA stated that "a country with both increasing numbers of young people and declining fertility has the potential to reap a demographic dividend."
Ansley Johnson Coale, was one of America's foremost demographers. A native to Baltimore, Maryland, he earned his Bachelor of Arts in 1939, his Master of Arts in 1941, and his Ph.D. in 1947, all at Princeton University. A long-term director of the Office of Population Research at Princeton, Coale was especially influential for his work on the demographic transition and for his leadership of the European Fertility Project.
This article lists current estimates of the world population in history. In summary, estimates for the progression of world population since the Late Middle Ages are in the following ranges:
The middle of the 20th century was marked by a significant and persistent increase in fertility rates in many countries of the world, especially in the Western world. The term baby boom is often used to refer to this particular boom, generally considered to have started immediately after World War II, although some demographers place it earlier or during the war. This terminology led to those born during this baby boom being nicknamed the baby boomer generation.
The Mongol conquests resulted in widespread and well-documented death and destruction throughout Eurasia, as the Mongol army invaded hundreds of cities and killed millions of people. One estimate is that approximately 10% of the contemporary global population, amounting to some 37.75–60 million people, was killed either during or immediately after the Mongols' military campaigns. As such, the Mongol Empire, which remains the largest contiguous polity to ever have existed, is regarded as having perpetrated some of the deadliest acts of mass killing in human history.
In world demographics, the world population is the total number of humans currently alive. It was estimated by the United Nations to have exceeded eight billion in mid-November 2022. It took around 300,000 years of human prehistory and history for the human population to reach a billion and only 218 years more to reach 8 billion.
The Roman Empire's population has been estimated at between 59 and 76 million in the 1st and 2nd centuries, peaking probably just before the Antonine Plague. Historian Kyle Harper provides an estimate of a population of 75 million and an average population density of about 20 people per square kilometre at its peak, with unusually high urbanization. During the 1st and 2nd centuries CE, the population of the city of Rome is conventionally estimated at one million inhabitants. Historian Ian Morris estimates that no other city in Western Eurasia would have as many again until the 19th century.
Earth has a human population of over 8 billion as of 2024, with an overall population density of 50 people per km2. Nearly 60% of the world's population lives in Asia, with more than 2.8 billion in the countries of India and China combined. The percentage shares of China, India and rest of South Asia of the world population have remained at similar levels for the last few thousand years of recorded history. The world's literacy rate has increased dramatically in the last 40 years, from 66.7% in 1979 to 86.3% today. Lower literacy levels are mostly attributable to poverty. Lower literacy rates are found mostly in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa.
Projections of population growth are attempts to show how the human population statistics might change in the future. These projections are an important input to forecasts of the population's impact on this planet and humanity's future well-being. Models of population growth take trends in human development and apply projections into the future. These models use trend-based-assumptions about how populations will respond to economic, social and technological forces to understand how they will affect fertility and mortality, and thus population growth.
The population history of China covers the long-term pattern of population growth in China and its impact on the history of China. The population went through many cycles that generally reached peaks along each imperial power and was decimated due to wars and barbarian invasions. The census data shows that the population as percentage share of the world has a long-term average of 26%, with 6% standard deviation. The minimum could be as low as 16% while the maximum as high as 33%. In the late 19th century and the early 20th century, the percentage share has been trending down. This was caused by two opposite factors: On one hand, the world population has been growing explosively. On the other hand, in order to address the poverty issue, China implemented a strict birth control policy. For recent trends see demographics of China and China.