2020 United States presidential election in North Carolina

Last updated

2020 United States presidential election in North Carolina
Flag of North Carolina.svg
←  2016 November 3, 2020 2024  →
Turnout77.4% Increase2.svg
  Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg Joe Biden presidential portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris
Electoral vote150
Popular vote2,758,7752,684,292
Percentage49.93%48.59%
North Carolina Presidential Election Results 2020.svg
2020 United States presidential election in North Carolina election results map by congressional district.svg
NC President 2020.svg
President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

The 2020 United States presidential election in North Carolina was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. [1] North Carolina voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state was narrowly won by the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump of Florida, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence of Indiana, against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden of Delaware, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. North Carolina had 15 electoral votes in the Electoral College. [2]

Contents

Polls of the state throughout the campaign indicated a close race, with most organizations considering it either a tossup or leaning towards Biden. Despite this, Trump ultimately won North Carolina with a 49.93% plurality over Biden's 48.59% vote share (a margin of 1.34%). Trump also became the fourth-ever Republican to carry North Carolina without winning the presidency. This was Trump's narrowest victory in any state, and it was a closer result than his 3.67% margin over Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Mitt Romney's 2.04% margin over Barack Obama in 2012. North Carolina was the only state in the 2020 election in which Trump won with under 50% of the vote. [lower-alpha 1] In the 2020 election, North Carolina was 5.8% right of the nation as a whole. The state last voted Democratic in 2008 and had last voted more Republican than neighboring Georgia in 2000.

Trump's victory was, alongside his victory and actual improvement over 2016 in Florida, one of the upsets of the cycle. Election data website FiveThirtyEight 's election forecast had Biden up in both states, [3] albeit by small margins. Similarly, prediction websites Inside Elections , Sabato's Crystal Ball , The Economist , and ABC News all had Biden favored in the state.

Primary elections

Presidential preference primaries were held on March 3, 2020 (first cases of COVID-19), for each of the political parties with state ballot access.

Democratic primary

Despite speculation that he might seek the Democratic nomination, Roy Cooper, the Governor of North Carolina, declined to run. [4] [5]

Popular vote share by county Biden--<30% Biden--30-40% Biden--40-50% Biden--50-60% Biden--60-70% Sanders--30-40% Sanders--40-50% North Carolina Democratic presidential primary election results by county (vote share), 2020.svg
Popular vote share by county
  Biden—<30%
  Biden—30–40%
  Biden—40–50%
  Biden—50–60%
  Biden—60–70%
  Sanders—30–40%
  Sanders—40–50%
2020 North Carolina Democratic presidential primary [6]
CandidateVotes %Delegates [7]
Joe Biden 572,27142.9568
Bernie Sanders 322,64524.2237
Michael Bloomberg 172,55812.953
Elizabeth Warren 139,91210.502
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn) [lower-alpha 2] 43,6323.27
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn) [lower-alpha 2] 30,7422.31
Tom Steyer (withdrawn) [lower-alpha 2] 10,6790.80
Tulsi Gabbard 6,6220.50
Andrew Yang (withdrawn)2,9730.22
Cory Booker (withdrawn)2,1810.16
Michael Bennet (withdrawn)1,9780.15
Deval Patrick (withdrawn)1,3410.10
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn)1,2430.09
John Delaney (withdrawn)1,0980.08
Julian Castro (withdrawn)6990.05
No Preference21,8081.64
Total1,332,382100%110

Republican primary

The North Carolina Republican Party submitted to the state only the name of incumbent President Donald Trump to be listed on the primary ballot. The campaign of Bill Weld "has written to the [state Board of Elections] asking to be added to the ballot, arguing that his candidacy meets the legal test because he’s received 'widespread news coverage,' raised more than $1.2 million, and has qualified for the primary ballot in six other states," according to the News and Observer. [8] Joe Walsh similarly petitioned the state board of elections. On Dec. 20, 2019, the state board unanimously voted to include both Weld and Walsh on the ballot. [9]

2020 North Carolina Republican presidential primary [10]
CandidateVotes %Delegates [11]
Donald Trump (incumbent)750,60093.5371
Joe Walsh (withdrawn)16,3562.040
Bill Weld 15,4861.930
No Preference20,0852.50
Total802,527100%71

Libertarian primary

2020 North Carolina Libertarian presidential primary
Flag of North Carolina.svg
←  2016 March 3, 2020 2024  →
←  MA
MO  →
 NOTA Option Logo 3x4.svg Jacob Hornberger by Gage Skidmore (cropped) (3).jpg John McAfee by Gage Skidmore (cropped).jpg
Candidate None of the above Jacob Hornberger John McAfee
Home stateN/A Virginia Tennessee
Popular vote2,060604570
Percentage45.2%13.3%12.5%
  Kim Ruff (50280804772) (cropped).jpg Vermin Supreme August 2019 (cropped).jpg Ken Armstrong POTUS46 Headshot (cropped).jpg
CandidateKim Ruff
(withdrawn)		 Vermin Supreme Ken Armstrong
Home state Arizona Massachusetts Oregon
Popular vote545410366
Percentage12%9%8%
North Carolina Libertarian presidential primary election results by county, 2020.svg
Election results by county
  None of the above
  Kim Ruff
  Vermin Supreme
  Ken Armstrong
  Jo Jorgensen
  Steve Richey
  Dan Behrman
  Jedidiah Hill
  Tie
  No votes
North Carolina Libertarian presidential primary, March 3, 2020 [12]
CandidateVotesPercentage
None of the above 2,06030%
Jacob Hornberger6049%
John McAfee 5708%
Kim Ruff (withdrawn)5458%
Vermin Supreme 4106%
Ken Armstrong3665%
Jo Jorgensen 3165%
Steve Richey2784%
Adam Kokesh 2403%
Max Abramson 2363%
James Ogle2323%
Kenneth Blevins1993%
Dan Behrman1943%
Jedidiah Hill1943%
Souraya Faas1933%
Erik Gerhardt1502%
Arvin Vohra1272%
Total6,914100%

Green primary

2020 North Carolina Green Party presidential primary [13] [14]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Green Howie Hawkins 24760.54%
Green No Preference16139.46%
Total votes408 100%

Constitution primary

2020 North Carolina Constitution Party presidential primary [13] [15]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Constitution No Preference19344.57%
Constitution Don Blankenship 12829.56%
Constitution Charles Kraut11225.87%
Total votes438 100%

General election

Predictions

SourceRanking
The Cook Political Report [16] Tossup
Inside Elections [17] Tilt D (flip)
Sabato's Crystal Ball [18] Lean D (flip)
Politico [19] Tossup
RCP [20] Tossup
Niskanen [21] Tossup
CNN [22] Tossup
The Economist [23] Lean D (flip)
CBS News [24] Tossup
270towin [25] Tossup
ABC News [26] Lean D (flip)
NPR [27] Tossup
NBC News [28] Tossup
FiveThirtyEight [29] Lean D (flip)

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		 Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other/
Undecided
[lower-alpha 3] 		Margin
270 to Win [30] October 31 – November 2, 2020November 3, 202047.8%47.5%4.7%
Real Clear Politics [31] October 26 – November 1, 2020November 3, 202047.6%47.8%4.6%Trump +0.2
FiveThirtyEight [32] until November 2, 2020November 3, 202048.9%47.1%4.0%
Average48.1%47.5%4.4%

June 1 – October 31, 2020

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 4] 		Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian 		Howie
Hawkins
Green 		Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios [33] Oct 20 – Nov 2, 20205,363 (LV)± 2%48% [lower-alpha 5] 50%--––
Change Research/CNBC [34] Oct 29 – Nov 1, 2020473 (LV)± 4.51%47%49%2%1%–1%
Swayable [35] Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020690 (LV)± 5.3%46%52%1%0%––
Ipsos/Reuters [36] Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020707 (LV)± 4.2%48% [lower-alpha 6] 49%1%1%2% [lower-alpha 7] –
48% [lower-alpha 8] 49%--3% [lower-alpha 9] 1%
48% [lower-alpha 10] 50%--2% [lower-alpha 11] –
Data for Progress [37] Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020908 (LV)± 3.3%48%50%1%1%0% [lower-alpha 12] –
Frederick Polls/Compete Everywhere [38] [upper-alpha 1] Oct 30–31, 2020676 (LV)± 3.7%49%51%--––
AtlasIntel [39] Oct 30–31, 2020812 (LV)± 3.0%50%48%--3%–
Insider Advantage/Center for American Greatness [40] [upper-alpha 2] Oct 30–31, 2020450 (LV)± 4.6%48%44%2%-–7%
Emerson College [41] Oct 29–31, 2020855 (LV)± 3.3%47% [lower-alpha 13] 47%--6% [lower-alpha 14] –
Morning Consult [42] Oct 22–31, 20201,982 (LV)± 2%48%49%--––
CNN/SSRS [43] Oct 23–30, 2020901 (LV)± 4.1%45%51%2%1%1% [lower-alpha 15] 1%
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports [44] Oct 28–29, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%48%47%--2% [lower-alpha 11] –
Trafalgar Group [45] Oct 27–29, 20201,082 (LV)± 2.9%49%47%3%-1% [lower-alpha 16] 1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [46] Oct 26–29, 20201,489 (LV)–47%49%2%0%0%2%
Harvard-Harris/The Hill [47] Oct 26–29, 2020903 (LV)–48%49%--–3%
East Carolina University [48] Oct 27–28, 20201,103 (LV)± 3.4%48% [lower-alpha 13] 50%--2% [lower-alpha 17] 0% [lower-alpha 18]
Cardinal Point Analytics (R)/NSJ [49] Oct 27–28, 2020750 (LV)± 3.6%48%46%1%1%2% [lower-alpha 19] 2%
Marist College/NBC [50] Oct 25–28, 2020800 (LV)± 4.7%46%52%--2%1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios [33] Oct 1–28, 20208,720 (LV)–47%52%--––
Gravis Marketing [51] Oct 26–27, 2020614 (LV)± 4%46%49%--–4%
Public Policy Polling/Protect Our Care [52] [upper-alpha 3] Oct 26–27, 2020937 (V)± 3.2%47%51%--–3%
Meeting Street Insights/Carolina Partnership for Reform (R) [53] Oct 24–27, 2020600 (LV)± 4%45%48%--––
Siena College/NYT Upshot [54] Oct 23–27, 20201,034 (LV)± 3.4%45%48%2%1%0% [lower-alpha 20] 4% [lower-alpha 21]
Ipsos/Reuters [55] Oct 21–27, 2020647 (LV)± 4.4%48% [lower-alpha 6] 49%1%1%1% [lower-alpha 22] –
48% [lower-alpha 8] 49%--2% [lower-alpha 23] 1%
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ [56] Oct 24–26, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%47% [lower-alpha 6] 48%--3% [lower-alpha 24] 2%
46% [lower-alpha 25] 50%--3% [lower-alpha 24] 2%
49% [lower-alpha 26] 47%--3% [lower-alpha 24] 2%
Swayable [57] Oct 23–26, 2020396 (LV)± 6.8%48%50%2%0%––
SurveyUSA/WRAL-TV [58] Oct 23–26, 2020627 (LV)± 4.9%48%48%--2% [lower-alpha 11] 2%
YouGov/UMass Amherst [59] Oct 20–26, 2020911 (LV)± 4.2%48%48%1%0%1% [lower-alpha 27] 2%
Wick Surveys [60] Oct 24–25, 20201,000 (LV)± 3.1%49%47%--––
Harper Polling/Harper Polling/Civitas (R) [61] Oct 22–25, 2020504 (LV)± 4.37%46%47%1%0%0% [lower-alpha 28] 6%
YouGov/CBS [62] Oct 20–23, 20201,022 (LV)± 4.1%47%51%––2% [lower-alpha 29] 0%
Trafalgar Group [63] Oct 20–22, 20201,098 (LV)± 2.9%48.8%46%2.3%0.4%0.8% [lower-alpha 30] 1.7%
Citizen Data [64] Oct 17–20, 20201000 (LV)± 3.1%44%50%1%0.2%1.3%3.6%
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports [65] Oct 20–21, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%48%47%--2% [lower-alpha 11] 3%
Ipsos/Reuters [66] Oct 14–20, 2020660 (LV)± 4.3%47% [lower-alpha 6] 49%1%1%1% [lower-alpha 22] –
46% [lower-alpha 8] 49%--2% [lower-alpha 23] 2%
Morning Consult [42] Oct 11–20, 20201,904 (LV)± 2.2%47%50%--––
Meredith College [67] Oct 16–19, 2020732 (LV)± 3.5%44%48%1%1%0% [lower-alpha 31] 4%
Change Research/CNBC [68] Oct 16–19, 2020521 (LV) [lower-alpha 32] –47%50%--––
Data for Progress (D) [69] Oct 15–18, 2020929 (LV)± 3.2%44%48%1%1%–5%
East Carolina University [70] Oct 15–18, 20201,155 (LV)± 3.4%47% [lower-alpha 13] 51%--2% [lower-alpha 33] 0%
ABC/Washington Post [71] Oct 12–17, 2020646 (LV)± 4.5%48% [lower-alpha 6] 49%1%0% [lower-alpha 18] 0% [lower-alpha 34] 1%
48% [lower-alpha 35] 50%--0% [lower-alpha 34] 1%
Emerson College [72] Oct 11–14, 2020721 (LV)± 3.6%49% [lower-alpha 13] 49%--2% [lower-alpha 36] –
Civiqs/Daily Kos [73] Oct 11–14, 20201,211 (LV)± 3.3%46%51%--2% [lower-alpha 36] 1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [74] Oct 10–13, 2020994 (LV)–46% [lower-alpha 32] 49%1%0%––
Siena College/NYT Upshot [75] Oct 9–13, 2020627 (LV)± 4.5%42%46%2%1%1% [lower-alpha 37] 8% [lower-alpha 21]
Ipsos/Reuters [76] Oct 7–13, 2020660 (LV)± 4.3%48% [lower-alpha 6] 48%2%0%1% [lower-alpha 22] –
47% [lower-alpha 8] 48%--3% [lower-alpha 9] 3%
Monmouth University [77] Oct 8–11, 2020500 (RV)± 4.4%46%49%3%0%0% [lower-alpha 38] 2%
500 (LV) [lower-alpha 39] 46%50%--2%2%
500 (LV) [lower-alpha 40] 48%49%--2%1%
SurveyUSA/WRAL-TV [78] Oct 8–11, 2020669 (LV)± 4.8%45%50%--2% [lower-alpha 11] 3%
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc./American Greatness PAC [79] [upper-alpha 2] Oct 7–11, 2020500 (LV)± 4.3%46%48%2%-1% [lower-alpha 41] 4%
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ [80] Oct 7–11, 2020800 (LV)–45% [lower-alpha 6] 47%2%1%1%4%
43% [lower-alpha 25] 49%2%1%1%4%
47% [lower-alpha 26] 44%2%1%1%4%
Morning Consult [81] Oct 2–11, 20201,993 (LV)± 2.2%46%50%--––
YouGov/CCES [82] Sep 29 – Oct 7, 20201,627 (LV)–45%49%--––
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [74] Oct 9–10, 2020750 (LV)–42% [lower-alpha 32] 49%1%0%––
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [83] Oct 4–6, 2020938 (LV)± 3.2%44%49%1%0%0% [lower-alpha 42] 5%
Ipsos/Reuters [84] Sep 29 – Oct 6, 2020693 (LV)± 4.2%47%47%--2% [lower-alpha 23] 3%
Public Policy Polling [85] Oct 4–5, 2020911 (V)–46%50%--–3%
Data For Progress (D) [86] Sep 30 – Oct 5, 20201,285 (LV)± 2.7%44%51%2%0%–3%
Change Research/CNBC [87] Oct 2–4, 2020396 (LV)–47%49%--––
East Carolina University [88] Oct 2–4, 20201,232 (LV)± 3.2%46%50%--2% [lower-alpha 43] 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios [33] Sep 1–30, 20203,495 (LV)–46%52%--–2%
ALG Research/Piedmont Rising [89] [upper-alpha 4] Sep 22–28, 2020822 (V)–47%50%--––
Hart Research Associates/Human Rights Campaign [90] [upper-alpha 5] Sep 24–27, 2020400 (LV)± 4.9%47%49%--––
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [91] Sep 23–26, 20201,097 (LV)± 2.96%45%47%2%0%1% [lower-alpha 44] 6%
YouGov/CBS [92] Sep 22–25, 20201,213 (LV)± 3.6%46%48%--2% [lower-alpha 45] 4%
YouGov/UMass Lowell [93] Sep 18–25, 2020921 (LV)± 4.1%47% [lower-alpha 6] 47%2%1%0% [lower-alpha 46] 2%
49% [lower-alpha 47] 48%--2% [lower-alpha 48] 2%
Meredith College [94] Sep 18–22, 2020705 (RV)± 3.5%45%46%2%0%1% [lower-alpha 49] 6%
Change Research/CNBC [95] Sep 18–20, 2020579 (LV)–46%48%--––
Harper Polling/Harper Polling/Civitas (R) [96] Sep 17–20, 2020612 (LV)± 3.96%45%44%2%0%0% [lower-alpha 31] 8%
Emerson College [97] Sep 16–18, 2020717 (LV)± 3.6%49% [lower-alpha 13] 51%--––
Siena College/NYT Upshot [98] Sep 11–16, 2020653 (LV)± 4.3%44%45%2%1%0% [lower-alpha 20] 8% [lower-alpha 21]
Ipsos/Reuters [99] Sep 11–16, 2020586 (LV)± 4.6%47%47%--3% [lower-alpha 9] 3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [100] Sep 12–15, 20201,092 (LV)± 2.97%45%47%1%1%0% [lower-alpha 42] 5%
Suffolk University/USA Today [101] Sep 11–14, 2020500 (LV)–42.8%46.2%4.8%0.2%1.8% [lower-alpha 50] 4.2%
SurveyUSA/WRAL TV [102] Sep 10–13, 2020596 (LV)± 5.6%47%47%--2% [lower-alpha 11] 5%
CNN/SSRS [103] Sep 9–13, 2020787 (LV)± 3.9%46%49%2%1%0% [lower-alpha 51] 2%
Kaiser Family Foundation/Cook Political Report [104] Aug 29 – Sep 13, 20201,172 (RV)± 3%43%45%--4% [lower-alpha 52] 9%
Trafalgar [105] Sep 9–11, 20201,046 (LV)± 3%47.8%46.1%1.6%0.5%1.5% [lower-alpha 53] 2.5%
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports [106] Sep 7–8, 20201,000 (LV)± 3%49% [lower-alpha 13] 48%--3% [lower-alpha 54] –
Benenson Strategy Group/GS Group/AARP [107] Aug 28 – Sep 8, 20201,600 (LV)± 2.5%48%48%--1% [lower-alpha 55] 4%
Morning Consult [108] Aug 29 – Sep 7, 20201,592 (LV)± (2%-4%)47% [lower-alpha 56] 48%--––
Change Research/CNBC [109] Sep 4–6, 2020442 (LV)–47%49%--4% [lower-alpha 57] –
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [110] Aug 30 – Sep 3, 2020951 (LV)± 3.18%44%43%1%1%1% [lower-alpha 44] 9%
Monmouth University [111] Aug 29 – Sep 1, 2020401 (RV)± 4.9%45%47%3%0%1% [lower-alpha 58] 3%
401 (LV) [lower-alpha 59] 46%48%--3%3%
401 (LV) [lower-alpha 60] 46%48%--3%3%
Fox News [112] Aug 29 – Sep 1, 2020722 (LV)± 3.5%46%50%1%0%0% [lower-alpha 61] 2%
804 (RV)± 3.5%45%49%2%1%2% [lower-alpha 62] 3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios [33] Aug 1–31, 20202,914 (LV)–51%48%--–2%
East Carolina University [113] Aug 29–30, 20201,101 (LV)± 3.4%49%47%--2% [lower-alpha 11] 3%
Morning Consult [114] Aug 21–30, 20201,567 (LV)± (2%–4%)47%49%--––
Change Research/CNBC [115] Aug 21–23, 2020560 (LV)–47%48%––––
Morning Consult [116] Aug 14–23, 20201,541 (LV)± 2.0%46%49%––1% [lower-alpha 16] 3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [117] Aug 16–17, 2020967 (LV)± 3.09%46%44%2%0%1% [lower-alpha 44] 7%
Morning Consult [114] Aug 7–16, 20201,493 (LV)± (2%–4%)46%49%--––
East Carolina University [118] Aug 12–13, 20201,255 (RV)± 3.2%47%47%––3% [lower-alpha 63] 4%
Emerson College [119] Aug 8–10, 2020673 (LV)± 3.8%51% [lower-alpha 64] 49%––––
Harper Polling/Civitas [120] Aug 6–10, 2020600 (LV)± 4.0%44%45%2%1%1% [lower-alpha 49] 7%
Change Research/CNBC [121] Aug 7–9, 2020493 (LV)–48%47%––––
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports/American Greatness PAC [122] [upper-alpha 2] Aug 6–8, 2020750 (LV)± 3.6%48% [lower-alpha 32] 47%––––
Data for Progress [123] Jul 24 – Aug 2, 20201,170 (LV)–45%49%–––6%
44%46%2%1%–7%
Public Policy Polling/Giffords [124] [upper-alpha 6] Jul 30–31, 2020934 (V)–46%49%–––6%
YouGov/CBS [125] Jul 28–31, 20201,129 (LV)± 3.9%44%48%––2% [lower-alpha 65] 5%
HIT Strategies/DFER [126] [upper-alpha 7] Jul 23–31, 2020400 (RV)± 4.9%37%47%––4% [lower-alpha 66] 10% [lower-alpha 21]
SurveyMonkey/Axios [33] Jul 1–31, 20203,466 (LV)–50%49%--–2%
Change Research/CNBC [127] Jul 24–26, 2020284 (LV)–46%49%––––
Morning Consult [128] Jul 17–26, 20201,504 (LV)± 2.5%47%47%––––
Public Policy Polling/AFSCME [129] [upper-alpha 8] Jul 23–24, 2020884 (V)–46%49%–––5%
Cardinal Point Analytics [130] Jul 22–24, 2020735 (LV)± 3.6%48%47%1%––4%
Zogby Analytics [131] Jul 21–23, 2020809 (RV)± 3.4%40%44%4%1%–11%
Marist College/NBC News [132] Jul 14–22, 2020882 (RV)± 4.0%44%51%––2%4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [133] Jul 19–21, 2020919 (LV)–42%43%2%1%1%11%
Spry Strategies/American Principles Project [134] [upper-alpha 9] Jul 11–16, 2020600 (LV)± 3.7%49%46%–––5%
Cardinal Point Analytics [135] Jul 13–15, 2020547 (LV)± 4.2%49%48%1%––3%
Change Research/CNBC [136] Jul 10–12, 2020655 (LV)–46%47%––––
Public Policy Polling [137] Jul 7–8, 2020818 (V)± 3.4%46%50%–––5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios [33] Jun 8–30, 20201,498 (LV)–49%49%--–1%
Change Research/CNBC [138] Jun 26–28, 2020468 (LV) [lower-alpha 32] –44%51%––––
East Carolina University [139] Jun 22–25, 20201,149 (RV)± 3.4%44%45%––7% [lower-alpha 67] 4%
Public Policy Polling [140] Jun 22–23, 20201,157 (V)–46%48%–––6%
Fox News [141] Jun 20–23, 20201,012 (RV)± 3%45%47%––5% [lower-alpha 68] 3%
NYT Upshot/Siena College [142] Jun 8–18, 2020653 (RV)± 4.1%40%49%––4% [lower-alpha 69] 7%
Gravis Marketing/OANN [143] Jun 17, 2020631 (RV)± 3.9%46%43%–––10%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [144] Jun 14–17, 2020902 (LV)± 3.26%40%46%1%0%1%11%
Change Research/CNBC [145] Jun 12–14, 2020378 (LV) [lower-alpha 32] –45%47%1%1%––
Public Policy Polling [146] Jun 2–3, 2020913 (V)± 3.2%45%49%–––6%

January 1, 2020 – May 31, 2020

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 4] 		Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		OtherUndecided
Change Research/CNBC [147] May 29–31, 2020806 (LV)–45%46%4%4%
Harper Polling/Civitas [148] May 26–28, 2020500 (LV)± 4.38%47%44%–9%
Morning Consult [128] May 17–26, 20201,403 (LV)–49%46%––
Neighbourhood Research & Media [149] May 12–21, 2020391 (LV)–42%42%––
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [150] May 10–14, 2020859 (LV)± 3.3%43%45%3% [lower-alpha 70] 8%
Meeting Street Insights (R) [151] May 9–13, 2020500 (RV)–47%47%–6%
East Carolina University [152] May 7–9, 20201,111 (RV)± 3.4%46%43%7% [lower-alpha 71] 4%
Civiqs/Daily Kos [153] May 2–4, 20201,362 (RV)± 3%46%49%4% [lower-alpha 72] 2%
Meredith College [154] Apr 27–28, 2020604 (RV)± 4.0%40%47%5% [lower-alpha 73] 7%
SurveyUSA [155] Apr 23–26, 2020580 (LV)± 5.5%45%50%–5%
Public Policy Polling [156] [upper-alpha 10] Apr 20–21, 20201,275 (RV)–46%49%–5%
Garin-Hart-Yang/Garin-Hart-Yang/Put NC First (D) [157] Apr 13–18, 2020800 (LV)–45%48%––
GBAO Strategies/PLUS Paid Family Leave [158] Apr 13–16, 2020500 (LV)–46%48%1%4%
Public Policy Polling [159] Apr 14–15, 20201,318 (V)–47%48%–5%
Harper Polling [160] Apr 5–7, 2020500 (LV)± 4.4%49%42%–9%
East Carolina University [161] Feb 27–28, 20201,288 (RV)± 3.2%46%48%––
NBC News/Marist College [162] Feb 23–27, 20202,120 (RV)± 2.4%45%49%1%5%
SurveyUSA [163] Feb 13–16, 20202,366 (RV)± 2.5%45%49%–6%
Climate Nexus [164] Feb 11–15, 2020675 (RV)± 3.9%44%46%–11%

January 1, 2018 – December 31, 2019

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 4] 		Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		OtherUndecided
Fox News [165] Nov 10–13, 20191,504 (RV)± 2.5%43%45%5%5%
NYT Upshot/Siena College [166] Oct 13–26, 2019651 (LV)± 4.4%48%46%––
East Carolina University [167] Oct 2–9, 20191,076 (RV)± 3.0%46%50%4%– [lower-alpha 74]
Meredith College [168] Sep 29 – Oct 7, 2019996 (RV)± 3.0%38%35%20% [lower-alpha 75] 7%
Public Policy Polling [169] Oct 4–6, 2019963 (V)± 3.2%46%51%–4%
SurveyUSA [170] Aug 1–5, 20192,113 (RV)± 2.7%41%49%–10%
Harper Polling [171] Aug 1–4, 2019500 (LV)± 4.4%45%44%–11%
Fabrizio Ward/AARP [172] Jul 29–31, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%45%49%–5%
Public Policy Polling [173] Jun 17–18, 2019610 (RV)± 4.0%46%49%–5%
Emerson College [174] May 31 – Jun 3, 2019932 (RV)± 3.1%44%56%––
Spry Strategies (R) [175] [upper-alpha 11] May 25 – Jun 1, 2019730 (LV)–52%41%–7%
Harper Polling [176] Feb 11–13, 2019500 (LV)± 4.4%43%39%7%11%
Public Policy Polling [177] Jan 4–7, 2019750 (RV)± 3.6%44%49%–7%
Meredith College [178] Jan 21–25, 2018621 (RV)± 4.0%45%46%8%1%
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 4] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Michael
Bloomberg (D)		Undecided
East Carolina University [161] Feb 27–28, 20201,288 (RV)± 3.2%46%45%–
Climate Nexus [164] Feb 11–15, 2020675 (RV)± 3.9%41%47%12%

Donald Trump vs. Cory Booker

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 4] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Cory
Booker (D)		OtherUndecided
Harper Polling [176] Feb 11–13, 2019500 (LV)± 4.4%44%36%6%14%
Public Policy Polling [177] Jan 4–7, 2019750 (RV)± 3.6%46%45%–9%

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 4] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Pete
Buttigieg (D)		OtherUndecided
SurveyUSA [163] Feb 13–16, 20202,366 (RV)± 2.5%46%45%–9%
Climate Nexus [164] Feb 11–15, 2020675 (RV)± 3.9%43%42%–14%
Fox News [165] Nov 10–13, 20191,504 (RV)± 2.5%43%39%6%8%
East Carolina University [179] Oct 2–9, 20191,076 (RV)± 3.0%49.4%46.8%3.8%– [lower-alpha 74]
Meredith College [168] Sep 29 – Oct 7, 2019996 (RV)± 3.0%38%27%25.1% [lower-alpha 76] 8.9%
Public Policy Polling [169] Oct 4–6, 2019963 (V)± 3.2%47%46%–7%
SurveyUSA [170] Aug 1–5, 20192,113 (RV)± 2.7%43%41%–16%
Public Policy Polling [173] Jun 17–18, 2019610 (RV)± 4.0%47%44%–9%
Emerson College [174] May 31 – Jun 3, 2019932 (RV)± 3.1%48%52%––

Donald Trump vs. Kirsten Gillibrand

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 4] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Kirsten
Gillibrand (D)		OtherUndecided
Meredith College [178] Jan 21–25, 2018621 (RV)± 4.0%46%36%18%1%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 4] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Kamala
Harris (D)		OtherUndecided
East Carolina University [180] Oct 2–9, 20191,076 (RV)± 3.0%49.3%46.9%3.8%– [lower-alpha 74]
Meredith College [168] Sep 29 – Oct 7, 2019996 (RV)± 3.0%39.1%28.4%24.8% [lower-alpha 76] 7.7%
Public Policy Polling [169] Oct 4–6, 2019963 (V)± 3.2%47%47%–5%
SurveyUSA [170] Aug 1–5, 20192,113 (RV)± 2.7%44%43%–13%
Harper Polling [171] Aug 1–4, 2019500 (LV)± 4.4%47%41%–12%
Public Policy Polling [173] Jun 17–18, 2019610 (RV)± 4.0%47%46%–7%
Emerson College [174] May 31 – Jun 3, 2019932 (RV)± 3.1%51%49%––
Harper Polling [176] Feb 11–13, 2019500 (LV)± 4.4%45%34%5%16%
Public Policy Polling [177] Jan 4–7, 2019750 (RV)± 3.6%45%45%–10%

Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 4] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Amy
Klobuchar (D)		Undecided
SurveyUSA [163] Feb 13–16, 20202,366 (RV)± 2.5%46%46%12%
Climate Nexus [164] Feb 11–15, 2020675 (RV)± 3.9%43%40%17%

Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 4] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Beto
O'Rourke (D)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling [177] Jan 4–7, 2019750 (RV)± 3.6%46%45%10%

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 4] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Bernie
Sanders (D)		OtherUndecided
Harper Polling/Civitas Institute [181] [upper-alpha 12] Apr 5–7, 2020500 (LV)± 4.3%50%40%–10%
East Carolina University [161] Feb 27–28, 20201,288 (RV)± 3.2%48%43%––
NBC News/Marist College [162] Feb 23–27, 20202,120 (RV)± 2.4%46%48%1%5%
SurveyUSA [163] Feb 13–16, 20202,366 (RV)± 2.5%45%50%–5%
Climate Nexus [164] Feb 11–15, 2020675 (RV)± 3.9%43%47%–10%
Fox News [165] Nov 10–13, 20191,504 (RV)± 2.5%44%45%4%5%
NYT Upshot/Siena College [166] Oct 13–26, 2019651 (LV)± 4.4%48%44%––
East Carolina University [182] Oct 2–9, 20191,076 (RV)± 3.0%48%49%4%– [lower-alpha 74]
Meredith College [168] Sep 29 – Oct 7, 2019996 (RV)± 3.0%39%33%23% [lower-alpha 76] 6%
Public Policy Polling [169] Oct 4–6, 2019963 (V)± 3.2%47%50%–4%
SurveyUSA [170] Aug 1–5, 20192,113 (RV)± 2.7%43%47%–10%
Harper Polling [171] Aug 1–4, 2019500 (LV)± 4.4%46%44%–10%
Public Policy Polling [173] Jun 17–18, 2019610 (RV)± 4.0%47%48%–5%
Emerson College [174] May 31 – Jun 3, 2019932 (RV)± 3.1%46%54%––
Harper Polling [176] Feb 11–13, 2019500 (LV)± 4.4%46%34%9%10%
Public Policy Polling [177] Jan 4–7, 2019750 (RV)± 3.6%45%48%–8%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 4] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Elizabeth
Warren (D)		OtherUndecided
East Carolina University [161] Feb 27–28, 20201,288 (RV)± 3.2%49%41%––
SurveyUSA [163] Feb 13–16, 20202,366 (RV)± 2.5%48%44%–8%
Climate Nexus [164] Feb 11–15, 2020675 (RV)± 3.9%45%43%–12%
Fox News [165] Nov 10–13, 20191,504 (RV)± 2.5%44%43%4%6%
NYT Upshot/Siena College [166] Oct 13–26, 2019651 (LV)± 4.4%48%44%––
East Carolina University [183] Oct 2–9, 20191,076 (RV)± 3.0%48.5%47.6%3.9%– [lower-alpha 74]
Meredith College [168] Sep 29 – Oct 7, 2019996 (RV)± 3.0%39.1%33%20.2% [lower-alpha 76] 7.4%
Public Policy Polling [169] Oct 4–6, 2019963 (V)± 3.2%46%49%–5%
SurveyUSA [170] Aug 1–5, 20192,113 (RV)± 2.7%43%44%–12%
Harper Polling [171] Aug 1–4, 2019500 (LV)± 4.4%46%43%–11%
Public Policy Polling [173] Jun 17–18, 2019610 (RV)± 4.0%48%46%–6%
Emerson College [174] May 31 – Jun 3, 2019932 (RV)± 3.1%50%50%––
Public Policy Polling [177] Jan 4–7, 2019750 (RV)± 3.6%46%46%–8%
Meredith College [178] Jan 21–25, 2018621 (RV)± 4.0%48%40%12%1%
Hypothetical polling

with Donald Trump and Michelle Obama

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 4] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Michelle
Obama (D)		OtherUndecided
SurveyUSA [170] Aug 1–5, 20192,113 (RV)± 2.7%43%50%–7%

with Donald Trump and Oprah Winfrey

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 4] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Oprah
Winfrey (D)		OtherUndecided
SurveyUSA [170] Aug 1–5, 20192,113 (RV)± 2.7%43%45%–12%
Meredith College [178] Jan 21–25, 2018621 (RV)± 4.0%48%38%12%2%

with Donald Trump and a person whose name was randomly chosen out of a phone book

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 4] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Generic individualRefused/no answerUndecided
Meredith College [168] Sep 29 – Oct 7, 2019996 (RV)± 3.0%42.7%40.1%1.1%16.2%

with Donald Trump and Roy Cooper

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 4] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Roy
Cooper (D)		OtherUndecided
Meredith College [178] Jan 21–25, 2018621 (RV)± 4.0%45%43%11%1%

with Donald Trump and Generic Democrat

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 4] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Generic
Democrat		OtherUndecided
ALG Research/End Citizens United [184] [upper-alpha 13] Jan 8–12, 2020700 (LV)–44%48%––
Public Policy Polling/End Citizens United [185] [upper-alpha 13] Sep 16–17, 2019628 (RV)± 3.9%47%50%–3%
Elon University [186] Feb 20 – Mar 7, 2019914 (RV)± 3.5%36%48%6% [lower-alpha 14] 9% [lower-alpha 77]

with Donald Trump and Generic Opponent

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 4] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump (R)		Generic
Opponent		Undecided
East Carolina University [187] Oct 2–9, 20191,076 (RV)± 3%44%51% [lower-alpha 78] 5%

Results

2020 United States presidential election in North Carolina [188]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence 		2,758,775 49.93% +0.10%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris 		2,684,29248.59%+2.42%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen 		48,6780.88%−1.86%
Green Howie Hawkins
Angela Walker 		12,1950.22%−0.04%
Constitution Don Blankenship
William Mohr 		7,5490.14%
Write-in 13,3150.24%-0.76%
Total votes5,524,804 100.00%

By county

CountyDonald Trump
Republican		Joe Biden
Democratic		Various candidates
Other parties		MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Alamance 46,05653.50%38,82545.10%1,2101.40%7,2318.40%86,091
Alexander 15,88878.51%4,14520.48%2031.01%11,74358.03%20,236
Alleghany 4,52774.51%1,48624.46%631.03%3,04150.05%6,076
Anson 5,32147.53%5,78951.72%840.75%-468-4.19%11,194
Ashe 11,45172.41%4,16426.33%1991.26%7,28746.08%15,814
Avery 7,17275.83%2,19123.17%951.00%4,98152.66%9,458
Beaufort 16,43762.46%9,63336.61%2450.93%6,80425.85%26,315
Bertie 3,81738.89%5,93960.51%590.60%-2,122-21.62%9,815
Bladen 9,67656.50%7,32642.78%1230.72%2,35013.72%17,125
Brunswick 55,85061.94%33,31036.94%1,0151.12%22,54025.00%90,175
Buncombe 62,41238.63%96,51559.74%2,6421.63%-36,103-21.11%161,569
Burke 31,01969.55%13,11829.41%4651.04%17,90140.14%44,602
Cabarrus 63,23753.94%52,16244.50%1,8281.56%11,0759.44%117,227
Caldwell 32,11974.99%10,24523.92%4651.09%21,87451.07%42,829
Camden 4,31272.43%1,53725.82%1041.75%2,77546.61%5,953
Carteret 30,02870.33%12,09328.32%5741.35%17,93542.01%42,695
Caswell 7,08958.82%4,86040.33%1020.85%2,22918.49%12,051
Catawba 56,58867.83%25,68930.79%1,1481.38%30,89937.04%83,425
Chatham 21,18643.59%26,78755.12%6261.29%-5,601-11.53%48,599
Cherokee 12,62876.89%3,58321.82%2121.29%9,04555.07%16,423
Chowan 4,47157.44%3,24741.71%660.85%1,22415.73%7,784
Clay 5,11274.16%1,69924.65%821.19%3,41349.51%6,893
Cleveland 33,79865.87%16,95533.05%5551.08%16,84332.82%51,308
Columbus 16,83263.65%9,44635.72%1680.63%7,38627.93%26,446
Craven 31,03258.48%21,14839.85%8851.67%9,88418.63%53,065
Cumberland 60,03240.80%84,46957.40%2,6491.80%-24,437-16.60%147,150
Currituck 11,65772.19%4,19525.98%2951.83%7,46246.21%16,147
Dare 13,93857.52%9,93641.00%3581.48%4,00216.52%24,232
Davidson 64,65873.05%22,63625.57%1,2201.38%42,02247.48%88,514
Davie 18,22872.02%6,71326.52%3701.46%11,51545.50%25,311
Duplin 13,79360.72%8,76738.60%1550.68%5,02622.12%22,715
Durham 32,45918.04%144,68880.42%2,7671.54%-112,229-68.38%179,914
Edgecombe 9,20636.13%16,08963.15%1820.72%-6,883-27.02%25,477
Forsyth 85,06442.26%113,03356.16%3,1731.58%-27,969-13.90%201,270
Franklin 20,90155.96%15,87942.51%5711.53%5,02213.45%37,351
Gaston 73,03363.23%40,95935.46%1,5061.31%32,07427.77%115,498
Gates 3,36756.39%2,54642.64%580.97%82113.75%5,971
Graham 3,71079.53%90519.40%501.07%2,80560.13%4,665
Granville 16,64752.68%14,56546.09%3861.23%2,0826.59%31,598
Greene 4,87455.68%3,83243.78%470.54%1,04211.90%8,753
Guilford 107,29437.72%173,08660.84%4,1061.44%-65,792-23.12%284,486
Halifax 10,08039.13%15,54560.35%1340.52%-5,465-21.22%25,759
Harnett 35,17760.35%22,09337.90%1,0231.75%13,08422.45%58,293
Haywood 22,83462.49%13,14435.97%5641.54%9,69026.52%36,542
Henderson 40,03258.55%27,21139.80%1,1281.65%12,82118.75%68,371
Hertford 3,47932.72%7,09766.74%580.54%-3,618-34.02%10,634
Hoke 9,45343.69%11,80454.55%3821.76%-2,351-10.86%21,639
Hyde 1,41856.90%1,04641.97%281.13%37214.93%2,492
Iredell 67,01065.46%33,88833.10%1,4731.44%33,12232.36%102,371
Jackson 11,35653.00%9,59144.76%4812.24%1,7658.24%21,428
Johnston 68,35361.38%41,25737.05%1,7471.57%27,09624.33%111,357
Jones 3,28059.37%2,19739.76%480.87%1,08319.61%5,525
Lee 16,46956.77%12,14341.86%3961.37%4,32614.91%29,008
Lenoir 14,59051.36%13,60547.89%2140.75%9853.47%28,409
Lincoln 36,34172.37%13,27426.43%6021.20%23,06745.94%50,217
Macon 14,21168.51%6,23030.03%3021.46%7,98138.48%20,743
Madison 7,97961.02%4,90137.48%1961.50%3,07823.54%13,076
Martin 6,53252.09%5,91147.14%970.77%6214.95%12,540
McDowell 16,88373.39%5,83225.35%2881.26%11,05148.04%23,003
Mecklenburg 179,21131.60%378,10766.68%9,7351.72%-198,896-35.08%567,053
Mitchell 7,09078.42%1,86720.65%840.93%5,22357.77%9,041
Montgomery 8,41165.46%4,32733.68%1110.86%4,08431.78%12,849
Moore 36,76463.02%20,77935.62%7961.36%15,98527.40%58,339
Nash 25,82749.41%25,94749.64%4970.95%-120-0.23%52,271
New Hanover 63,33148.04%66,13850.17%2,3611.79%-2,807-2.13%131,830
Northampton 3,98939.46%6,06960.03%520.51%-2,080-20.57%10,110
Onslow 46,07863.79%24,26633.59%1,8912.62%21,81230.20%72,235
Orange 20,17623.74%63,59474.82%1,2271.44%-43,418-51.08%84,997
Pamlico 4,84963.54%2,71335.55%690.91%2,13627.99%7,631
Pasquotank 9,77049.10%9,83249.41%2951.49%-62-0.31%19,897
Pender 21,95664.26%11,72334.31%4901.43%10,23329.95%34,169
Perquimans 4,90365.51%2,49233.30%891.19%2,41132.21%7,484
Person 13,18460.22%8,46538.66%2451.12%4,71921.56%21,894
Pitt 38,98244.51%47,25253.96%1,3391.53%-8,270-9.45%87,573
Polk 7,68962.22%4,51836.56%1511.22%3,17125.66%12,358
Randolph 56,89477.60%15,61821.30%8041.10%41,27656.30%73,316
Richmond 11,83056.98%8,75442.16%1790.86%3,07614.82%20,763
Robeson 27,80658.93%19,02040.31%3620.76%8,78618.62%47,188
Rockingham 31,30165.47%15,99233.45%5161.08%15,30932.02%47,809
Rowan 49,29767.15%23,11431.49%9971.36%26,18335.66%73,408
Rutherford 24,89172.30%9,13526.53%4031.17%15,75645.77%34,429
Sampson 17,41160.84%10,96638.32%2410.84%6,44522.52%28,618
Scotland 7,47350.58%7,18648.64%1160.78%2871.94%14,775
Stanly 25,45875.01%8,12923.95%3521.04%17,32951.06%33,939
Stokes 20,14478.37%5,28620.57%2731.06%14,85857.80%25,703
Surry 27,53875.16%8,72123.80%3791.04%18,81751.36%36,638
Swain 4,16158.87%2,78039.33%1271.80%1,38119.54%7,068
Transylvania 11,63657.03%8,44441.38%3241.59%3,19215.65%20,404
Tyrrell 1,04457.46%75841.72%150.82%28615.74%1,817
Union 80,38261.36%48,72537.19%1,9041.45%31,65724.17%131,011
Vance 8,39139.96%12,43159.20%1770.84%-4,040-19.24%20,999
Wake 226,19735.80%393,33662.25%12,2971.95%-167,139-26.45%631,830
Warren 3,75236.45%6,40062.18%1411.37%-2,648-25.73%10,293
Washington 2,78144.82%3,39654.73%280.45%-615-9.91%6,205
Watauga 14,45144.85%17,12253.14%6472.01%-2,671-8.29%32,220
Wayne 30,70955.29%24,21543.60%6131.11%6,49411.69%55,537
Wilkes 27,59277.80%7,51121.18%3631.02%20,08156.62%35,466
Wilson 19,58148.07%20,75450.95%4000.98%-1,173-2.88%40,735
Yadkin 15,93379.97%3,76318.89%2271.14%12,17061.08%19,923
Yancey 7,51666.21%3,68832.49%1481.30%3,82833.72%11,352
Totals2,758,77549.93%2,684,29248.59%81,7371.48%74,4831.34%5,524,804
North Carolina County Swing 2020.svg
North Carolina County Trend 2020.svg
North Carolina County Flips 2020.svg

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Trump won 8 of 13 congressional districts. [189]

DistrictTrumpBidenRepresentative
1st 45.3%53.9% G. K. Butterfield
2nd 34%64.3% George Holding
Deborah K. Ross
3rd 60.9%37.7% Greg Murphy
4th 32.2%66.6% David Price
5th 67.4%31.6% Virginia Foxx
6th 37.2%61.6% Mark Walker
Kathy Manning
7th 58.1%40.7% David Rouzer
8th 52.5%46.1% Richard Hudson
9th 53.4%45.5% Dan Bishop
10th 67.7%31.2% Patrick McHenry
11th 55.4%43.3% Madison Cawthorn
12th 28.5%70.1% Alma Adams
13th 67.1%31.8% Ted Budd

Analysis

The rural-urban divide was even more prevalent in North Carolina this election than in past elections. Biden carried eight of North Carolina's ten largest counties (losing only the Charlotte-area suburban counties of Union and Gaston), and overperformed Obama's 2008 margin in the six largest: Wake (Raleigh), Mecklenburg (Charlotte), Guilford (Greensboro), Forsyth (Winston-Salem), Durham (Durham), and Buncombe (Asheville), in which he received 62%, 67%, 61%, 56%, 80%, and 60% of the vote, respectively. [190] Biden furthermore became the first Democrat to carry New Hanover County, home of Wilmington, since 1976. He also flipped Nash County, which had last voted for Obama in 2012, before switching to Trump in 2016, back to the Democratic column. Biden held Trump to a single-digit margin in the Charlotte-area suburban county of Cabarrus, the first time since 1976 that the Republican margin in this county has been less than 10%.

Conversely, Trump held or outperformed his 2016 margin in Robeson, Bladen, Martin, Granville and Gates counties, all counties that had been reliably Democratic in the 20th century and which had voted for Obama twice before flipping to Trump in 2016. Biden thereby became the first Democrat ever to win the presidency without Robeson County, the largest county in the Lumber River region of the state and the county which had given Jimmy Carter his largest raw vote margin in the state in both 1976 and 1980. Trump picked off neighboring Scotland County, one of only 15 counties he flipped nationally, becoming the first Republican to carry it since Ronald Reagan in 1984 and making Biden the first Democrat to win without Scotland since the county's creation in 1899. Biden also became the first Democrat to win the White House without Granville and Gates counties since Grover Cleveland in 1892, the first since Cleveland in 1884 to win without Bladen County, the first since James Buchanan in 1856 to win without Richmond County and the first ever to win without Martin County.[ citation needed ]

Edison exit polls

2020 presidential election in North Carolina by demographic subgroup (Edison exit polling) [191] [192]
Demographic subgroupBidenTrump% of

total vote

Total vote48.5949.93100
Ideology
Liberals 93620
Moderates 663239
Conservatives 99040
Party
Democrats 97334
Republicans 49637
Independents 504630
Gender
Men455444
Women534656
Race/ethnicity
White 336665
Black 92723
Latino 57425
Asian ––2
Other56405
Age
18–24 years old55438
25–29 years old59366
30–39 years old574314
40–49 years old524616
50–64 years old465331
65 and older405924
Sexual orientation
LGBT 76225
Not LGBT475295
Education
High school or less386218
Some college education435627
Associate degree 504818
Bachelor's degree 554422
Postgraduate degree643514
Income
Under $30,000514715
$30,000–49,999544422
$50,000–99,999494936
$100,000–199,999475222
Over $200,00047535
Issue regarded as most important
Racial inequality 94521
Coronavirus 841514
Economy 168235
Crime and safety118812
Health care 663312
Region
East455423
Research Triangle 623722
Charlotte Area554418
Piedmont/Central445420
West366217
Area type
Urban692933
Suburban396040
Rural405927
Family's financial situation today
Better than four years ago178245
Worse than four years ago91720
About the same693034

See also

Notes

General footnotes

    1. ↑ There were three states in which Biden won with under 50% of the vote – Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin.
    2. 1 2 3 Candidate withdrew during early voting, shortly before the date of the election.
    3. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
    4. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Key:
      A – all adults
      RV – registered voters
      LV – likely voters
      V – unclear
    5. ↑ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
    6. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Standard VI response
    7. ↑ "Some other candidate" and West (B) with 1%; would not vote with 0%
    8. 1 2 3 4 If only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
    9. 1 2 3 "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
    10. ↑ Results considering those who lean towards a given candidate among those initially predisposed towards abstention, indecision or a candidate besides Biden or Trump in the response section immediately above
    11. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 "Some other candidate" with 2%
    12. ↑ "Other candidate or write-in" with 0%
    13. 1 2 3 4 5 6 With voters who lean towards a given candidate
    14. 1 2 "Someone else" with 6%
    15. ↑ "None of these" with 1%; "Other" with 0%
    16. 1 2 "Someone else" with 1%
    17. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 2%; did/would not vote and "Refused" with 0%
    18. 1 2 No voters
    19. ↑ Blankenship (C) with 2%
    20. 1 2 "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%
    21. 1 2 3 4 Includes "Refused"
    22. 1 2 3 "Some other candidate" with 1%; West (B) and would not vote with 0%
    23. 1 2 3 "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
    24. 1 2 3 "Another candidate" with 3%
    25. 1 2 Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
    26. 1 2 Results generated with high Republican turnout model
    27. ↑ "Another candidate" with 1%
    28. ↑ Blankenship (C) with no voters
    29. ↑ "Other third party" with 2%
    30. ↑ "Someone else" with 0.6%; Blankenship (C) with 0.2%
    31. 1 2 Blankenship (C) with 0%
    32. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
    33. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 1%; did/would not vote and "Refused" with 0%
    34. 1 2 "Other", "None of these" and would not vote with 0%
    35. ↑ If only Biden and Trump were candidates
    36. 1 2 "Someone else" with 2%
    37. ↑ "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
    38. ↑ Blankenship (C), "No one" and "Other candidate" with no voters
    39. ↑ With a likely voter turnout model featuring high turnout
    40. ↑ With a likely voter turnout model featuring low turnout
    41. ↑ "Refused" with 1%; "Other" with 0%
    42. 1 2 "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 0%
    43. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with no voters
    44. 1 2 3 "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
    45. ↑ "Someone else/third party" with 2%
    46. ↑ "Another candidate" with 0%
    47. ↑ With only Biden, Trump and "another candidate" as options
    48. ↑ "Another candidate" with 2%
    49. 1 2 Blankenship (C) with 1%
    50. ↑ "Refused" with 1.4%; "Other" with 0.4%; Blankenship (C) with no voters
    51. ↑ "None of these" and "Other" with 0%; Blankenship (C) with no voters
    52. ↑ "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 1%; "refused" with 0%
    53. ↑ "Someone else" with 1%; Blankenship (C) with 0.5%
    54. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 3%
    55. ↑ Would not vote with 1%
    56. ↑ Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
    57. ↑ "Other/not sure" with 4%
    58. ↑ "No one" with 1%; Blankenship and "Other candidate" with <1%
    59. ↑ With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
    60. ↑ With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
    61. ↑ Blankenship (C) and "Other" with 0%
    62. ↑ Blankenship (C) and would not vote with 1%; "Other" with 0%
    63. ↑ "Other candidate" with 3%
    64. ↑ Including voters who lean towards a given candidate
    65. ↑ "Someone else/third party" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
    66. ↑ "Third party candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 1%
    67. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 7%
    68. ↑ "Other" with 3%; would not vote with 2%
    69. ↑ "Another candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 1%
    70. ↑ "Third party/write-in" with 3%
    71. ↑ "Other candidate" with 7%
    72. ↑ "Someone else" with 4%
    73. ↑ "Someone else" with 5%
    74. 1 2 3 4 5 The poll does not have a separate listing for this entry, which is instead added into the 'Other' grouping.
    75. ↑ Refused/no answer with 0.2%
    76. 1 2 3 4 Refused/no answer with 0.1%
    77. ↑ "Other/it depends" with 6%; "Don't know" with 3%
    78. ↑ "It is time for someone else to be President" with 51% as opposed to "Trump should be re-elected if he is the Republican nominee"

    Partisan clients

    1. ↑ Compete Everywhere primarily supports Democratic candidates
    2. 1 2 3 The Center for American Greatness is a pro-Trump organization
    3. ↑ Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organisation
    4. ↑ Piedmont Rising is a pro-Affordable Care Act organisation
    5. ↑ The Human Rights Campaign endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
    6. ↑ The founder of this poll's sponsor had endorsed Biden prior to the sampling period
    7. ↑ This poll’s sponsor, DFER, primarily supports Democratic candidates
    8. ↑ AFSCME endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
    9. ↑ This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501(c)(4) organization that supports the Republican Party.
    10. ↑ Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organisation
    11. ↑ Poll sponsored by the North Carolina Republican Party
    12. ↑ Poll sponsored by the Civitas Institute, a conservative think tank
    13. 1 2 Poll sponsored by End Citizens United, a group that has exclusively endorsed Democrats

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    172. ↑ Fabrizio Ward/AARP
    173. 1 2 3 4 5 Public Policy Polling
    174. 1 2 3 4 5 Emerson College Archived June 4, 2019, at the Wayback Machine
    175. ↑ Spry Strategies (R)
    176. 1 2 3 4 Harper Polling
    177. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Public Policy Polling
    178. 1 2 3 4 5 Meredith College
    179. ↑ East Carolina University Archived October 14, 2019, at the Wayback Machine
    180. ↑ East Carolina University Archived October 14, 2019, at the Wayback Machine
    181. ↑ Harper Polling/Civitas Institute
    182. ↑ East Carolina University Archived October 14, 2019, at the Wayback Machine
    183. ↑ East Carolina University Archived October 14, 2019, at the Wayback Machine
    184. ↑ ALG Research/End Citizens United
    185. ↑ Public Policy Polling/End Citizens United
    186. ↑ Elon University
    187. ↑ East Carolina University
    188. ↑ "November 03, 2020 General Election Results by Contest" (PDF). North Carolina State Board of Elections.
    189. ↑ "Daily Kos Elections 2012, 2016 & 2020 presidential election results for congressional districts used in 2020 elections". www.dailykos.com.
    190. ↑ "North Carolina Election Results". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN   0362-4331 . Retrieved December 11, 2020.
    191. ↑ "North Carolina 2020 President exit polls". www.cnn.com. Retrieved December 28, 2020.
    192. ↑ "North Carolina Exit Polls: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. Retrieved December 28, 2020.

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