2004 United States presidential election in North Carolina

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2004 United States presidential election in North Carolina
Flag of North Carolina.svg
  2000 November 2, 2004 2008  
  George-W-Bush.jpeg John F. Kerry.jpg
Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Texas Massachusetts
Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards
Electoral vote150
Popular vote1,961,1661,525,849
Percentage56.02%43.58%

North Carolina Presidential Election Results 2004.svg
2004 United States presidential election in North Carolina results map by congressional district.svg
NC President 2004.svg

President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in North Carolina took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 15 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Contents

North Carolina was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 12.44% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or a red state. North Carolina was also the home state of Democratic Party vice presidential nominee John Edwards, who was then representing the state in the United States Senate. This was not enough for Democrats to break Republican success in this state since Jimmy Carter's victory in 1976. While winning the state comfortably, Bush's margin of 12.44% was 0.39% lower than his 2000 performance, making it the only Southern state to swing more Democratic than 2000.

Bush became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Mecklenburg or Guilford counties since Calvin Coolidge in 1924.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day. [1]

SourceRanking
D.C. Political ReportLikely R
Cook Political ReportLean R
Research 2000Lean R
Zogby InternationalLikely R
Washington PostLikely R
Washington DispatchLikely R
Washington TimesSolid R
The New York TimesSolid R
CNNLikely R
NewsweekLean R
Associated PressLean R
Rasmussen ReportsLikely R

Polling

Bush won every single pre-election poll. The final 3-poll average showed Bush leading 52% to 44%. [2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $4,465,160. [3] Kerry raised $2,049,794. [4]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited the state during the fall campaign. [5] [6]

Analysis

John Edwards failed to make his home state competitive in the general election. [7] In 2000, George W. Bush had performed strongly in most of the South, including North Carolina, which he had won by 12.83%. As in most of the rest of the South, he did so once again in North Carolina, notwithstanding Edwards' presence on the Democratic ticket, although his margin of victory did go down slightly, to 12.44%, even as nationally he improved from losing the popular vote by 0.5% to winning it by 2.5%. Bush consistently led in polling leading up to election day. [8]

Bush won a majority of the 100 counties and congressional districts. The only region in the state that Kerry dominated in was the Northeastern black belt, the location of North Carolina's 1st congressional district. However, Kerry did narrowly flip two heavily populated counties, Mecklenburg and Guilford, which have gone on to give Democrats over 55% of the vote in every subsequent election as of 2020. He also cut Bush's margin in another heavily populated county, Wake, from 7.1% to 2.1%. As of 2020, Wake has gone on to give Democrats over 55% of the vote in every subsequent election save 2012. Large Democratic margins in these counties have been instrumental to making North Carolina competitive in every election from 2008 onward.

As of the 2020 presidential election , this is the last election in which Pitt County, Forsyth County, Wilson County, Wake County, Buncombe County, and Cumberland County voted for a Republican presidential candidate. [9]

As of 2020, this is also the last election in which a presidential candidate won North Carolina by double digits, as well as the last time the state was not seriously contested.

Results

2004 United States presidential election in North Carolina
PartyCandidateRunning mateVotesPercentageElectoral votes
Republican George W. Bush (incumbent) Richard Cheney (incumbent)1,961,16656.02%15
Democratic John Kerry John Edwards 1,525,84943.58%0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik Richard Campagna 11,7310.34%0
Others N/A N/A 2,2610.06%0
Totals3,501,007100%15
Voter turnout (Voting Age population)55.4%

By county

CountyGeorge W. Bush
Republican
John Kerry
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Alamance 33,30261.47%20,68638.18%1870.35%12,61623.29%54,175
Alexander 10,92870.05%4,61829.60%540.34%6,31040.45%15,600
Alleghany 2,88359.73%1,92239.82%220.45%96119.91%4,827
Anson 3,79641.15%5,41358.68%160.17%−1,617−17.53%9,225
Ashe 7,29261.68%4,47737.87%540.46%2,81523.81%11,823
Avery 5,67875.47%1,80523.99%410.55%3,87351.48%7,524
Beaufort 12,43263.68%7,02535.99%650.34%5,40727.69%19,522
Bertie 3,05738.06%4,93861.48%370.46%−1,881−23.42%8,032
Bladen 6,17450.14%6,10949.61%300.24%650.53%12,313
Brunswick 22,92560.37%14,90339.24%1490.39%8,02221.13%37,977
Buncombe 52,49149.99%51,86849.39%6540.63%6230.60%105,013
Burke 18,92261.51%11,72838.12%1120.37%7,19423.39%30,762
Cabarrus 40,78067.05%19,80332.56%2410.40%20,97734.49%60,824
Caldwell 21,18667.58%9,99931.90%1630.52%11,18735.68%31,348
Camden 2,48064.75%1,33934.96%110.29%1,14129.79%3,830
Carteret 17,71669.27%7,73230.23%1270.50%9,98439.04%25,575
Caswell 4,86851.58%4,53948.10%300.32%3293.48%9,437
Catawba 39,60267.48%18,85832.13%2280.39%20,74435.35%58,688
Chatham 12,89249.73%12,89749.75%1330.51%−5−0.02%25,922
Cherokee 7,51767.12%3,63532.46%470.42%3,88234.66%11,199
Chowan 2,96755.09%2,40644.67%130.24%56110.42%5,386
Clay 3,20965.95%1,62833.46%290.59%1,58132.49%4,866
Cleveland 22,75061.36%14,21538.34%1140.31%8,53523.02%37,079
Columbus 10,77350.84%10,34348.81%750.36%4302.03%21,191
Craven 23,57562.44%14,01937.13%1620.43%9,55625.31%37,756
Cumberland 49,13951.60%45,78848.08%2990.31%3,3513.52%95,226
Currituck 6,01366.99%2,90932.41%540.60%3,10434.58%8,976
Dare 9,34560.10%6,13639.46%670.43%3,20920.64%15,548
Davidson 42,07570.72%17,19128.89%2300.39%24,88441.81%59,496
Davie 12,37274.17%4,23325.38%750.45%8,13948.79%16,680
Duplin 9,61157.96%6,92341.75%490.30%2,68816.21%16,583
Durham 34,61431.57%74,52467.96%5130.47%−39,910−36.39%109,651
Edgecombe 8,16338.73%12,87761.09%390.19%−4,714−22.36%21,079
Forsyth 75,29454.12%63,34045.53%4910.35%11,9548.59%139,125
Franklin 11,54055.17%9,28644.39%920.44%2,25410.78%20,918
Gaston 43,25267.84%20,25431.77%2490.39%22,99836.07%63,755
Gates 1,92447.47%2,12152.33%80.20%−197−4.86%4,053
Graham 2,69367.54%1,27231.90%220.56%1,42135.64%3,987
Granville 9,49151.02%9,05748.69%530.28%4342.33%18,601
Greene 3,80058.71%2,66541.18%70.11%1,13517.53%6,472
Guilford 98,25449.30%100,04250.19%1,0180.51%−1,788−0.89%199,314
Halifax 8,08841.17%11,52858.68%310.16%−3,440−17.51%19,647
Harnett 20,92264.24%11,56335.50%860.26%9,35928.74%32,571
Haywood 14,54556.09%11,23743.33%1500.58%3,30812.76%25,932
Henderson 28,02564.82%15,00334.70%2060.48%13,02230.12%43,234
Hertford 2,94236.18%5,14163.22%490.61%−2,199−27.04%8,132
Hoke 5,25747.41%5,79452.25%370.33%−267−4.84%11,088
Hyde 1,23553.86%1,04845.70%100.43%1878.16%2,293
Iredell 38,67567.88%18,06531.71%2330.41%20,61036.17%56,973
Jackson 7,35151.86%6,73747.53%860.61%6144.33%14,174
Johnston 36,90367.89%17,26631.76%1880.35%19,63736.13%54,357
Jones 2,60757.77%1,89341.95%130.29%71415.82%4,513
Lee 11,83460.55%7,65739.18%520.27%4,17721.37%19,543
Lenoir 12,93955.82%10,20744.04%330.14%2,73211.78%23,179
Lincoln 20,05267.79%9,43431.89%930.32%10,61835.90%29,579
Macon 9,44862.89%5,48936.53%870.58%3,95926.36%15,024
Madison 5,17554.69%4,23444.74%540.57%9419.95%9,463
Martin 5,33451.03%5,10248.81%160.15%2322.22%10,452
McDowell 10,59066.18%5,33033.31%820.51%5,26032.87%16,002
Mecklenburg 155,08448.00%166,82851.63%1,1900.37%−11,744−3.63%323,102
Mitchell 5,68672.92%2,08026.67%320.41%3,60646.25%7,798
Montgomery 5,74556.99%4,31342.79%220.22%1,43214.20%10,080
Moore 24,71464.39%13,55535.32%1130.30%11,15929.07%38,382
Nash 21,90258.14%15,69341.66%780.21%9,77916.48%37,673
New Hanover 45,35155.82%35,57243.78%3240.40%12,61612.04%81,247
Northampton 3,17636.21%5,58463.67%100.11%−2,408−27.46%8,770
Onslow 25,89069.45%11,25030.18%1370.37%14,64039.27%37,277
Orange 20,77132.38%42,91066.89%4720.74%−22,139−34.51%64,153
Pamlico 3,67960.93%2,33538.67%240.40%1,34422.26%6,038
Pasquotank 6,60948.42%6,98451.17%550.41%−375−2.75%13,648
Pender 10,03758.75%6,99940.97%490.28%3,03817.78%17,085
Perquimans 2,96559.80%1,97139.75%220.44%99420.05%4,958
Person 8,97358.98%6,19840.74%430.28%2,77518.24%15,214
Pitt 28,59053.30%24,92446.46%1290.24%3,6666.84%53,643
Polk 5,14056.98%3,78741.98%941.05%1,35315.00%9,021
Randolph 37,77174.19%12,96625.47%1730.34%24,80548.72%50,910
Richmond 7,70947.75%8,38351.92%530.33%−674−4.17%16,145
Robeson 15,90946.97%17,86852.75%940.28%−1,959−5.78%33,871
Rockingham 22,84061.09%14,43038.60%1180.32%8,41022.49%37,388
Rowan 34,91567.32%16,73532.27%2170.42%18,18035.05%51,867
Rutherford 16,34366.28%8,18433.19%1310.53%8,15933.09%24,658
Sampson 12,60056.53%9,64943.29%390.17%2,95113.24%22,288
Scotland 5,14144.52%6,38655.30%200.17%−1,245−10.78%11,547
Stanly 17,81469.71%7,65029.94%890.35%10,16439.77%25,553
Stokes 13,58369.96%5,76729.71%640.33%7,81640.25%19,414
Surry 17,58767.66%8,30431.95%1010.39%9,28335.71%25,992
Swain 2,59351.41%2,41947.96%320.64%1743.45%5,044
Transylvania 9,38660.21%6,09739.11%1050.68%3,28921.10%15,588
Tyrrell 85553.77%73145.97%40.25%1247.80%1,590
Union 42,82070.20%17,97429.47%2070.34%24,84640.73%61,001
Vance 6,88443.91%8,76255.89%310.20%−1,878−11.98%15,677
Wake 177,32450.83%169,90948.71%1,6110.46%7,4152.12%348,844
Warren 2,84035.38%5,17164.42%160.20%−2,331−29.04%8,027
Washington 2,48445.40%2,96954.27%180.33%−485−8.87%5,471
Watauga 12,65952.64%11,23246.70%1590.66%1,4275.94%24,050
Wayne 24,88362.14%15,07637.65%870.22%9,80724.49%40,046
Wilkes 19,19770.70%7,86228.95%950.35%11,33541.75%27,154
Wilson 16,26453.26%14,20646.52%650.21%2,0586.74%30,535
Yadkin 11,81677.16%3,45122.54%460.30%8,36554.62%15,313
Yancey 4,94052.38%4,43447.02%570.60%5065.36%9,431
Totals1,961,16656.02%1,525,84943.58%13,9920.40%435,31712.44%3,501,007
County Flips:
Democratic
Hold
Gain from Republican
Republican
Hold
Gain from Democratic North Carolina County Flips 2004.svg
County Flips:

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Bush won 9 of 13 congressional districts, including two held by Democrats. [10]

DistrictBushKerryRepresentative
1st 42%57% G. K. Butterfield
2nd 54%46% Bob Etheridge
3rd 68%32% Walter B. Jones
4th 44%55% David Price
5th 66%33% Richard Burr
Virginia Foxx
6th 69%30% Howard Coble
7th 56%44% Mike McIntyre
8th 54%45% Robin Hayes
9th 63%36% Sue Wilkins Myrick
10th 67%33% Cass Ballenger
Patrick McHenry
11th 57%43% Charles H. Taylor
12th 37%63% Mel Watt
13th 47%52% Brad Miller

Electors

Technically the voters of North Carolina cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. North Carolina is allocated 15 electors because it has 13 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 15 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 15 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All were pledged to and voted for Bush/Cheney:

  1. Joseph W. Powell
  2. Ann Sullivan
  3. William B. Carraway
  4. Sandra Carter
  5. William H. Trotter
  6. Thomas D. Luckadoo
  7. Judy Keener
  8. Marcia M. Spiegel
  9. Dewitt Rhoades
  10. Davey G. Williamson
  11. Theresa Esposito
  12. Elizabeth Kelly
  13. Larry W. Potts
  14. Joe Morgan
  15. Robert Rector

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  4. "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democratic Party, President". www.campaignmoney.com.
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