2004 United States presidential election in Nevada

Main article: 2004 United States presidential election

2004 United States presidential election in Nevada

←  2000 November 2, 2004 2008  →
Turnout	77.5% (of registered voters) 50.0% (of voting age population)
Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry Party Republican Democratic Home state Texas Massachusetts Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards Electoral vote 5 0 Popular vote 418,690 397,190 Percentage 50.47% 47.88%
County Results Bush   50-60%   60-70%   70-80% Kerry   50-60%
President before election George W. Bush Republican Elected President George W. Bush Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Nevada took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose five representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Nevada was won by incumbent President George W. Bush with a 2.6% margin of victory. Prior to the election, news organizations who made predictions were split on whether Nevada was a swing state or leaned towards Bush. Kerry won just one county of the state—Clark County, Nevada's most populous county, and home to Las Vegas. Kerry's second-best performance in the state was in Washoe County, Nevada's next-most populated county, which he lost with 47% of the vote. The statewide results were very similar to the nationwide vote, making it the bellwether of the 2004 election. Moreover, Nevada at the time had voted for the winner of every presidential election since 1912, except for 1976. Independent and third-party candidates collectively won 1.7% of the vote; among this group, Ralph Nader received the greatest share, garnering 0.58%.

This was the last time that Nevada was carried by the Republican nominee until Donald Trump in 2024, and remains the last time that a Republican has carried Washoe County. Nevada, still generally considered a swing state, would vote for the Democratic nominee in every subsequent election in between 2004 and 2024, albeit sometimes by narrow margins. This is the last time that the presidential candidate who won Nevada carried a majority of county-level jurisdictions until 2024.

Caucuses

• 2004 Nevada Democratic caucuses

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day. ^[1]

Source	Ranking
D.C. Political Report	Lean R
Associated Press	Toss-up
CNN	Likely R
Cook Political Report	Toss-up
Newsweek	Lean R
New York Times	Lean R
Rasmussen Reports	Toss-up
Research 2000	Lean R
Washington Post	Toss-up
Washington Times	Solid R
Zogby International	Likely D (flip)
Washington Dispatch	Likely R

Polling

Bush trailed in only one pre-election poll throughout the general election. By the fall, Bush pulled away and reached 50%. However, in the last week, some voters changed their preferences against Bush, resulting in his polling margin falling slightly. An average of the final three polls before Election Day showed Bush leading 49% to 47%. ^[2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $2,296,762. ^[3] Kerry raised $793,504. ^[4]

Advertising and visits

Bush visited the state 3 times, while Kerry visited Nevada 6 times. Both of them visited the same places: Las Vegas and Reno. Almost every week, the candidates combined spent over $1 million in advertising. ^[5]

Analysis

In 2000, Bush had won Nevada by only 3.54%, despite that it had been Bill Clinton's second-closest win in 1996. He also fell slightly short of an outright majority. Hence, he was thought by many observers to be vulnerable in the state, which had voted Republican for six elections in a row before Bill Clinton.

In the end, Bush improved his vote share to just over a majority, although his margin narrowed to 2.59%, due to Kerry improving over Gore by a greater amount than Bush improved over his own prior performance. In particular, Bush's vote share actually fell slightly in Washoe County, the state's second-largest county and its largest red county in both 2000 and 2004. Washoe County had given the Republican nominee his biggest raw-vote margin in the state in every election from 1944 through 2000 save 1964 (when this distinction went to smaller Douglas County) and the three elections of the 1980s (when it went to larger Clark County). In 2004, the 'Cow County' of Elko County displaced Washoe County as the county giving Bush his biggest raw-vote margin in Nevada.

However, Bush performed strongly in Nevada's Cow Counties (its 14 counties apart from Clark, Washoe, and Carson City ^[6] ), winning over 60% of the vote in Douglas and Lyon Counties, over 70% in Churchill County, and over 75% in Elko County (where he received the highest vote share of any nominee since William Jennings Bryan in 1896). He also did well in Nye County, another of the larger Cow Counties, getting 58.5%, an improvement of 1.8% over four years prior. And he managed to keep Clark County from being a blowout, holding Kerry to a 4.9% margin there. Together with his limiting his backslide in Washoe, this was enough to give Bush another win in Nevada. This would be the last time until 2024 that Nevada had voted Republican.

Despite winning all but one of state's counties, Bush performed less consistently in Nevada's congressional districts, where he won two of the three—one of them by just a single percentage point.

Despite Bush winning the state, incumbent Senate Minority Whip Harry Reid won reelection.

Results

2004 United States presidential election in Nevada
Party		Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Republican	George W. Bush (incumbent)	418,690	50.47%	5
	Democratic	John Kerry	397,190	47.88%	0
	Independent	Ralph Nader	4,838	0.58%	0
	N/A	None of these Candidates	3,688	0.44%	0
	Libertarian	Michael Badnarik	3,176	0.38%	0
	American Independent	Michael Peroutka	1,152	0.14%	0
	Green	David Cobb	853	0.10%	0
Totals			829,587	100.00%	5
Voter turnout (Voting age population)					50.0%

By county

County	George W. Bush Republican		John Kerry Democratic		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total
	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
Carson City	13,171	57.00%	9,441	40.86%	494	2.14%	3,730	16.14%	23,106
Churchill	7,335	71.65%	2,705	26.42%	197	1.92%	4,630	45.23%	10,237
Clark	255,337	46.82%	281,767	51.66%	8,293	1.52%	-26,430	-4.84%	545,397
Douglas	15,192	63.57%	8,275	34.63%	431	1.80%	6,917	28.94%	23,898
Elko	11,938	77.98%	3,050	19.92%	321	2.10%	8,888	58.06%	15,309
Esmeralda	367	76.30%	99	20.58%	15	3.12%	268	55.72%	481
Eureka	571	77.37%	144	19.51%	23	3.12%	427	57.86%	738
Humboldt	3,896	72.59%	1,361	25.36%	110	2.05%	2,535	47.23%	5,367
Lander	1,602	78.03%	414	20.17%	37	1.80%	1,188	57.86%	2,053
Lincoln	1,579	77.14%	418	20.42%	50	2.44%	1,161	56.72%	2,047
Lyon	11,136	64.93%	5,637	32.87%	378	2.20%	5,499	32.06%	17,151
Mineral	1,336	57.41%	931	40.01%	60	2.58%	405	17.40%	2,327
Nye	8,487	58.49%	5,616	38.70%	407	2.80%	2,871	19.79%	14,510
Pershing	1,341	69.95%	538	28.06%	38	1.98%	803	41.89%	1,917
Storey	1,253	57.80%	871	40.18%	44	2.03%	382	17.62%	2,168
Washoe	81,545	51.26%	74,841	47.05%	2,693	1.69%	6,704	4.21%	159,079
White Pine	2,604	68.49%	1,082	28.46%	116	3.05%	1,522	40.03%	3,802
Totals	418,690	50.47%	397,190	47.88%	13,707	1.65%	21,500	2.59%	829,587

By congressional district

Bush won 2 of 3 congressional districts. ^[7]

District	Bush	Kerry	Representative
1st	42%	57%	Shelley Berkley
2nd	57%	41%	Jim Gibbons
3rd	50%	49%	Jon Porter

Electors

Main article: List of 2004 United States presidential electors

Technically speaking, the voters of Nevada cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Nevada is allocated 5 electors because it has 3 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 5 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 5 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead, the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from Nevada. All 5 were voted for Bush/Cheney, to whom they were unanimously pledged: ^[8]

1. Joe Brown
2. Milton Schwartz
3. John Marvel
4. Beverly Willard
5. Paul Willis

See also

• United States presidential elections in Nevada

References

1. http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW ^{[ permanent dead link ]}
2. "Election 2004 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections".
3. "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President". www.campaignmoney.com.
4. "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democrat Party, President".
5. "CNN.com Specials". www.cnn.com.
6. "Presidential candidates thinking big think Elko". Las Vegas Review-Journal. August 6, 2007. Retrieved January 12, 2021.
7. "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project".
8. "Article Not Found!". Archived from the original on April 8, 2008. Retrieved February 14, 2022.