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Turnout | 59.7% ![]() | ||||||||||||||||
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McConnell: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80-90% >90% McGrath: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40-50% 50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Kentucky |
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The 2020 United States Senate election in Kentucky was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Kentucky, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Senator Mitch McConnell, who had been Senate Majority Leader since 2015 and senator from Kentucky since 1985, won reelection to a seventh term in office. He faced off against former U.S. Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath and Libertarian Brad Barron.
The Democratic and Republican primaries took place on June 23, 2020. As the primaries neared, the president of the National Bar Association accused officials of carrying out voter suppression. Compared to typical numbers of 3,700, the number of polling stations was reduced to 200 with only one in Louisville. [1] Because a large number of voters voted by mail, absentee ballots were not counted until June 30. In the primary, over 937,000 people requested absentee ballots or voted early, a far greater number than usual. [2]
Despite much speculation about this race being potentially competitive and large amounts of money being poured in to try to defeat McConnell, he wound up winning a seventh term with his largest margin of victory since 2002, defeating McGrath by nearly 20 percentage points. He also won Elliott and Wolfe Counties for the first time, solidifying rural Kentucky's hard swing towards the GOP. This was the first election in which McConnell attained more than 1 million votes.
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Mitch McConnell (incumbent) | 342,660 | 82.80% | |
Republican | Wesley Morgan | 25,588 | 6.18% | |
Republican | Louis Grider | 13,771 | 3.33% | |
Republican | Paul John Frangedakis | 11,957 | 2.89% | |
Republican | Neren James | 10,693 | 2.58% | |
Republican | Kenneth Lowndes | 5,548 | 1.34% | |
Republican | Nicholas Alsager | 3,603 | 0.87% | |
Total votes | 413,820 | 100.0% |
There were debates on March 5, 2020 [33] [34] and June 1, 2020. [35] [36]
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Charles Booker | Amy McGrath | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Data for Progress [37] [upper-alpha 1] | June 10–22, 2020 | 556 (LV) | – | 43% | 46% | – | 10% |
Garin-Hart-Yang [38] [upper-alpha 2] | June 16–18, 2020 | – | – | 32% | 42% | – | – |
Civiqs/Data for Progress [39] | June 13–15, 2020 | 421 (LV) | ± 5.5% | 44% | 36% | 9% [lower-alpha 2] | 11% |
YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications [40] [upper-alpha 3] | June 8–12, 2020 | 313 (RV) | ± 7.0% | 39% | 49% | 6% [lower-alpha 3] | 3% |
YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications [41] [upper-alpha 3] | May 2020 | – [lower-alpha 4] | – | 13% | 62% | – | – |
YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications [41] [upper-alpha 3] | April 2020 | – [lower-alpha 4] | – | 11% | 62% | – | – |
YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications [41] [upper-alpha 3] | January 2020 | – [lower-alpha 4] | – | 7% | 65% | – | – |
U.S. senators
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Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Amy McGrath | 247,037 | 45.41% | |
Democratic | Charles Booker | 231,888 | 42.62% | |
Democratic | Mike Broihier | 27,175 | 4.99% | |
Democratic | Mary Ann Tobin | 11,108 | 2.04% | |
Democratic | Maggie Joe Hilliard | 6,224 | 1.14% | |
Democratic | Andrew Maynard | 5,974 | 1.10% | |
Democratic | Bennie J. Smith | 5,040 | 0.93% | |
Democratic | Jimmy Ausbrooks (withdrawn) | 3,629 | 0.67% | |
Democratic | Eric Rothmuller | 2,995 | 0.55% | |
Democratic | John R. Sharpensteen | 2,992 | 0.55% | |
Total votes | 544,062 | 100.0% |
The Libertarian Party of Kentucky did not qualify to nominate through the taxpayer-funded primary and held its own privately operated primary on March 8, 2020. Anyone registered Libertarian in the state of Kentucky as of January 1, 2020, could participate. [64] [65] All candidates of the Libertarian Party of Kentucky must defeat None Of The Above (NOTA) to obtain the nomination. [66]
Despite record breaking fundraising from McGrath and speculation that the race could be competitive, McConnell was handily re-elected. Throughout the general election, McConnell portrayed McGrath as an overly liberal "rioter apologist" and made use of a comment from 2018 where McGrath compared her reaction to Trump being elected in 2016 to how she felt during the September 11 attacks. [70]
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [71] | Likely R | October 29, 2020 |
Inside Elections [72] | Safe R | October 28, 2020 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [73] | Likely R | November 2, 2020 |
Daily Kos [74] | Safe R | October 30, 2020 |
Politico [75] | Likely R | November 2, 2020 |
RCP [76] | Likely R | October 23, 2020 |
DDHQ [77] | Safe R | November 3, 2020 |
538 [78] | Safe R | November 2, 2020 |
Economist [79] | Likely R | November 2, 2020 |
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![]() | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Mitch McConnell (R) | Amy McGrath (D) | Brad Barron (L) | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Swayable [92] | October 23 – November 1, 2020 | 365 (LV) | ± 7.9% | 49% | 46% | 5% | – |
Morning Consult [93] | October 22–31, 2020 | 911 (LV) | ± 3% | 51% | 40% | – | – |
Bluegrass Community & Technical College [94] | October 12–28, 2020 | 250 (RV) | – | 50% | 40% | – | 10% [lower-alpha 5] |
Cygnal [95] | October 19–20, 2020 | 640 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 50% | 40% | 5% | 5% [lower-alpha 6] |
Mason-Dixon [96] | October 12–15, 2020 | 625 (LV) | ± 4% | 51% | 42% | 4% | 3% [lower-alpha 7] |
Morning Consult [97] | September 11–20, 2020 | 746 (LV) | ± (2% – 7%) | 52% | 37% | – | – |
Data for Progress (D) [98] | September 14–19, 2020 | 807 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 46% [lower-alpha 8] | 39% | 3% | 12% [lower-alpha 9] |
48% [lower-alpha 10] | 41% | – | 11% [lower-alpha 11] | ||||
Quinnipiac University [99] | September 10–14, 2020 | 1,164 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 53% | 41% | – | 5% [lower-alpha 12] |
Quinnipiac University [100] | July 30 – August 3, 2020 | 909 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 49% | 44% | – | 7% [lower-alpha 13] |
Bluegrass Data (D) [101] [upper-alpha 4] | July 25–29, 2020 | 3,020 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 49% | 46% | 4% | – |
Morning Consult [102] | July 24 – August 2, 2020 | 793 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 53% | 36% | – | 12% [lower-alpha 14] |
Spry Strategies (R) [103] [upper-alpha 5] | July 11–16, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 55% | 33% | – | 12% [lower-alpha 9] |
Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D) [104] [upper-alpha 2] | July 7–12, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 45% | 41% | 7% | 7% [lower-alpha 15] |
Civiqs/Data for Progress [39] | June 13–15, 2020 | 898 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 53% | 33% | 4% | 11% [lower-alpha 16] |
RMG Research [105] [upper-alpha 6] | May 21–24, 2020 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 40% | 41% | – | 19% [lower-alpha 17] |
Bluegrass Data (D) [106] [upper-alpha 4] | April 7–12, 2020 [lower-alpha 18] | 4,000 (RV) | – | 40% | 38% | 7% | – |
Change Research (D) [107] [upper-alpha 2] | January 17–21, 2020 | 1,281 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 41% | 41% | – | 18% |
Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D) [108] [upper-alpha 2] | January 8–13, 2020 | 802 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 43% | 40% | – | 17% |
Fabrizio Ward [109] [upper-alpha 7] | July 29–31, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 46% | – | 6% |
Change Research (D) [110] [upper-alpha 2] | June 15–16, 2019 | 1,629 (LV) | – | 47% | 45% | – | 8% |
with Charles Booker
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Mitch McConnell (R) | Charles Booker (D) | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Civiqs/Data for Progress [39] | June 13–15, 2020 | 898 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 52% | 38% | 9% [lower-alpha 19] |
with Jim Gray
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Mitch McConnell (R) | Jim Gray (D) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gravis Marketing [111] | June 11–12, 2019 | 741 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 49% | 41% | 10% |
with Generic Democrat
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Mitch McConnell (R) | Generic Democrat | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling [112] | May 14–15, 2020 | 1,104 (V) | – | 47% | 44% | 9% |
Public Policy Polling (D) [113] [upper-alpha 8] | Feb 11–12, 2019 | 748 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 45% | 42% | 12% |
Public Policy Polling (D) [114] [upper-alpha 9] | Aug 15–16, 2017 | 645 (V) | – | 37% | 44% | 19% |
on whether Mitch McConnell deserves to be re-elected
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Yes | No | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fabrizio Ward/AARP [115] | July 29–31, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 31% | 62% | 8% [lower-alpha 20] |
Public Policy Polling (D) [116] [upper-alpha 8] | Feb 11–12, 2019 | 748 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 32% | 61% | 8% |
with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Generic Republican | Generic Democrat | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cygnal [95] | October 19–20, 2020 | 640 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 55% | 39% | 6% [lower-alpha 21] |
Quinnipiac University [99] | September 10–14, 2020 | 1,164 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 54% | 38% | 8% [lower-alpha 22] |
Fabrizio Ward/AARP [117] | July 29–31, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 42% | 13% [lower-alpha 23] |
McConnell was announced as the winner on November 3. [118] When pressed for a potential recount of the election amid legal disputes regarding the general, McConnell dismissed the idea, since, "at the risk of bragging, it wasn't very close." [119] [120]
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Mitch McConnell (incumbent) | 1,233,315 | 57.76% | +1.57% | |
Democratic | Amy McGrath | 816,257 | 38.23% | −2.49% | |
Libertarian | Brad Barron | 85,386 | 4.00% | +0.92% | |
Write-in | 99 | 0.01% | -0.00% | ||
Total votes | 2,135,057 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Republican hold |
McConnell won 5 of 6 congressional districts. [122]
District | McConnell | McGrath | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 67% | 28% | James Comer |
2nd | 62% | 33% | Brett Guthrie |
3rd | 37% | 61% | John Yarmuth |
4th | 60% | 36% | Thomas Massie |
5th | 74% | 22% | Hal Rogers |
6th | 51% | 46% | Andy Barr |
Partisan clients
Voter samples
William Bruce Lunsford is an American attorney, businessman, and politician from Kentucky. He has served various roles in the Kentucky Democratic Party, including party treasurer, Deputy Development Secretary, and Head of Commerce. Lunsford was the Democratic nominee for Kentucky's United States Senate seat in 2008, unsuccessfully challenging incumbent Mitch McConnell.
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