2020 United States Senate election in Kentucky

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2020 United States Senate election in Kentucky
Flag of Kentucky.svg
  2014 November 3, 2020 2026  
Turnout59.7% Increase2.svg
  Mitch McConnell portrait 2016.jpg Amy McGrath Event- (49220643717) 1.jpg
Nominee Mitch McConnell Amy McGrath
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote1,233,315816,257
Percentage57.76%38.23%

2020 United States Senate election in Kentucky results map by county.svg
2020 Kentucky Senate election by congressional district.svg
2020 Senate Election in Kentucky by Precinct.svg
McConnell:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80-90%     >90%
McGrath:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40-50%     50%     No data

U.S. senator before election

Mitch McConnell
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Mitch McConnell
Republican

The 2020 United States Senate election in Kentucky was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Kentucky, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Senator Mitch McConnell, who had been Senate Majority Leader since 2015 and senator from Kentucky since 1985, won reelection to a seventh term in office. He faced off against former U.S. Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath and Libertarian Brad Barron.

Contents

The Democratic and Republican primaries took place on June 23, 2020. As the primaries neared, the president of the National Bar Association accused officials of carrying out voter suppression. Compared to typical numbers of 3,700, the number of polling stations was reduced to 200 with only one in Louisville. [1] Because a large number of voters voted by mail, absentee ballots were not counted until June 30. In the primary, over 937,000 people requested absentee ballots or voted early, a far greater number than usual. [2]

Despite much speculation about this race being potentially competitive and large amounts of money being poured in to try to defeat McConnell, he wound up winning a seventh term with his largest margin of victory since 2002, defeating McGrath by nearly 20 percentage points. He also won Elliott and Wolfe Counties for the first time, solidifying rural Kentucky's hard swing towards the GOP. This was the first election in which McConnell attained more than 1 million votes.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

  • Wendell K. Crow, businessman and entrepreneur [5] [8] (remained on ballot)
  • Karl Das [9] [8]

Results

Results by county:
.mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{}
McConnell-->90%
McConnell--80-90%
McConnell--70-80% Kentucky U.S. Senate Republican primary, 2020.svg
Results by county:
  McConnell—>90%
  McConnell—80–90%
  McConnell—70–80%
Republican primary results [10]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Mitch McConnell (incumbent) 342,660 82.80%
Republican Wesley Morgan 25,5886.18%
Republican Louis Grider13,7713.33%
Republican Paul John Frangedakis11,9572.89%
Republican Neren James10,6932.58%
Republican Kenneth Lowndes5,5481.34%
Republican Nicholas Alsager3,6030.87%
Total votes413,820 100.0%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Representative Charles Booker placed second in the Democratic primary. Charles solar panels (cropped).jpg
Representative Charles Booker placed second in the Democratic primary.

Withdrawn

  • Jimmy Ausbrooks, mental health counselor [19] (endorsed Mike Broihier) [20] (remained on ballot)
  • Steven Cox, registered pharmacy technician [21] (endorsed Charles Booker) [22]
  • Joshua Paul Edwards [23] [8]
  • Kevin Elliott, Assistant Professor of Political Science at Murray State University [9] [8]
  • Dr. Loretta Babalmoradi Noble [24] [8]

Declined

Campaign

There were debates on March 5, 2020 [33] [34] and June 1, 2020. [35] [36]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Charles
Booker
Amy
McGrath
OtherUndecided
Data for Progress [37] [upper-alpha 1] June 10–22, 2020556 (LV)43%46%10%
Garin-Hart-Yang [38] [upper-alpha 2] June 16–18, 202032%42%
Civiqs/Data for Progress [39] June 13–15, 2020421 (LV)± 5.5%44%36%9% [lower-alpha 2] 11%
YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications [40] [upper-alpha 3] June 8–12, 2020313 (RV)± 7.0%39%49%6% [lower-alpha 3] 3%
YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications [41] [upper-alpha 3] May 2020 [lower-alpha 4] 13%62%
YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications [41] [upper-alpha 3] April 2020 [lower-alpha 4] 11%62%
YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications [41] [upper-alpha 3] January 2020 [lower-alpha 4] 7%65%

Endorsements

Charles Booker

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

State legislators

Newspapers

Unions

Organizations and political parties

Individuals

Mike Broihier

State and local officials from other states

  • Richard Ojeda, West Virginia State Senator for the 7th district (2016–2019); 2020 presidential and U.S. Senate candidate [54]

Individuals

Organizations

Results

Results by county:
McGrath--60-70%
McGrath--50-60%
McGrath--40-50%
Booker--40-50%
Booker--50-60% Kentucky U.S. Senate Democratic primary, 2020.svg
Results by county:
  McGrath—60–70%
  McGrath—50–60%
  McGrath—40–50%
  Booker—40–50%
  Booker—50–60%
Democratic primary results [10]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Amy McGrath 247,037 45.41%
Democratic Charles Booker 231,88842.62%
Democratic Mike Broihier27,1754.99%
Democratic Mary Ann Tobin 11,1082.04%
Democratic Maggie Joe Hilliard6,2241.14%
Democratic Andrew Maynard5,9741.10%
Democratic Bennie J. Smith5,0400.93%
Democratic Jimmy Ausbrooks (withdrawn)3,6290.67%
Democratic Eric Rothmuller2,9950.55%
Democratic John R. Sharpensteen2,9920.55%
Total votes544,062 100.0%

Other candidates

Libertarian primary

The Libertarian Party of Kentucky did not qualify to nominate through the taxpayer-funded primary and held its own privately operated primary on March 8, 2020. Anyone registered Libertarian in the state of Kentucky as of January 1, 2020, could participate. [64] [65] All candidates of the Libertarian Party of Kentucky must defeat None Of The Above (NOTA) to obtain the nomination. [66]

Nominee

  • Brad Barron, farmer and entrepreneur [67]

Reform Party

Withdrawn

Independents

Declared

  • Daniel Cobble (as a write-in candidate) [6]
  • Harold H. Fitzpatrick (as a write-in candidate) [6]
  • Paul John Frangedakis (as a write-in candidate)(switched from Republican candidacy after losing primary) [6]
  • Randall Lee Teegarden (as a write-in candidate) [6]
  • Demetra Wysinger (as a write-in candidate) [6]

Withdrawn

General election

Despite record breaking fundraising from McGrath and speculation that the race could be competitive, McConnell was handily re-elected. Throughout the general election, McConnell portrayed McGrath as an overly liberal "rioter apologist" and made use of a comment from 2018 where McGrath compared her reaction to Trump being elected in 2016 to how she felt during the September 11 attacks. [70]

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [71] Likely ROctober 29, 2020
Inside Elections [72] Safe ROctober 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball [73] Likely RNovember 2, 2020
Daily Kos [74] Safe ROctober 30, 2020
Politico [75] Likely RNovember 2, 2020
RCP [76] Likely ROctober 23, 2020
DDHQ [77] Safe RNovember 3, 2020
538 [78] Safe RNovember 2, 2020
Economist [79] Likely RNovember 2, 2020

Endorsements

Amy McGrath (D)

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

State officials

Individuals

Organizations

Unions

Polling

Graphical summary

Polls

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Mitch
McConnell (R)
Amy
McGrath (D)
Brad
Barron (L)
Other /
Undecided
Swayable [92] October 23 – November 1, 2020365 (LV)± 7.9%49%46%5%
Morning Consult [93] October 22–31, 2020911 (LV)± 3%51%40%
Bluegrass Community & Technical College [94] October 12–28, 2020250 (RV)50%40%10% [lower-alpha 5]
Cygnal [95] October 19–20, 2020640 (LV)± 3.9%50%40%5%5% [lower-alpha 6]
Mason-Dixon [96] October 12–15, 2020625 (LV)± 4%51%42%4%3% [lower-alpha 7]
Morning Consult [97] September 11–20, 2020746 (LV)± (2% – 7%)52%37%
Data for Progress (D) [98] September 14–19, 2020807 (LV)± 3.5%46% [lower-alpha 8] 39%3%12% [lower-alpha 9]
48% [lower-alpha 10] 41%11% [lower-alpha 11]
Quinnipiac University [99] September 10–14, 20201,164 (LV)± 2.9%53%41%5% [lower-alpha 12]
Quinnipiac University [100] July 30 – August 3, 2020909 (RV)± 3.3%49%44%7% [lower-alpha 13]
Bluegrass Data (D) [101] [upper-alpha 4] July 25–29, 20203,020 (RV)± 2.0%49%46%4%
Morning Consult [102] July 24 – August 2, 2020793 (LV)± 3.0%53%36%12% [lower-alpha 14]
Spry Strategies (R) [103] [upper-alpha 5] July 11–16, 2020600 (LV)± 3.7%55%33%12% [lower-alpha 9]
Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D) [104] [upper-alpha 2] July 7–12, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%45%41%7%7% [lower-alpha 15]
Civiqs/Data for Progress [39] June 13–15, 2020898 (RV)± 3.8%53%33%4%11% [lower-alpha 16]
RMG Research [105] [upper-alpha 6] May 21–24, 2020500 (RV)± 4.5%40%41%19% [lower-alpha 17]
Bluegrass Data (D) [106] [upper-alpha 4] April 7–12, 2020 [lower-alpha 18] 4,000 (RV)40%38%7%
Change Research (D) [107] [upper-alpha 2] January 17–21, 20201,281 (LV)± 2.8%41%41%18%
Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D) [108] [upper-alpha 2] January 8–13, 2020802 (LV)± 3.5%43%40%17%
Fabrizio Ward [109] [upper-alpha 7] July 29–31, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%47%46%6%
Change Research (D) [110] [upper-alpha 2] June 15–16, 20191,629 (LV)47%45%8%
Hypothetical polling

with Charles Booker

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Mitch
McConnell (R)
Charles
Booker (D)
Other /
Undecided
Civiqs/Data for Progress [39] June 13–15, 2020898 (RV)± 3.8%52%38%9% [lower-alpha 19]

with Jim Gray

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Mitch
McConnell (R)
Jim
Gray (D)
Undecided
Gravis Marketing [111] June 11–12, 2019741 (LV)± 3.6%49%41%10%

with Generic Democrat

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Mitch
McConnell (R)
Generic
Democrat
Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling [112] May 14–15, 20201,104 (V)47%44%9%
Public Policy Polling (D) [113] [upper-alpha 8] Feb 11–12, 2019748 (RV)± 3.6%45%42%12%
Public Policy Polling (D) [114] [upper-alpha 9] Aug 15–16, 2017645 (V)37%44%19%

on whether Mitch McConnell deserves to be re-elected

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
YesNoOther /
Undecided
Fabrizio Ward/AARP [115] July 29–31, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%31%62%8% [lower-alpha 20]
Public Policy Polling (D) [116] [upper-alpha 8] Feb 11–12, 2019748 (RV)± 3.6%32%61%8%

with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Generic
Republican
Generic
Democrat
Other /
Undecided
Cygnal [95] October 19–20, 2020640 (LV)± 3.9%55%39%6% [lower-alpha 21]
Quinnipiac University [99] September 10–14, 20201,164 (LV)± 2.9%54%38%8% [lower-alpha 22]
Fabrizio Ward/AARP [117] July 29–31, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%48%42%13% [lower-alpha 23]

Results

McConnell was announced as the winner on November 3. [118] When pressed for a potential recount of the election amid legal disputes regarding the general, McConnell dismissed the idea, since, "at the risk of bragging, it wasn't very close." [119] [120]

2020 United States Senate election in Kentucky [121]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Mitch McConnell (incumbent) 1,233,315 57.76% +1.57%
Democratic Amy McGrath 816,25738.23%−2.49%
Libertarian Brad Barron85,3864.00%+0.92%
Write-in 990.01%-0.00%
Total votes2,135,057 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

McConnell won 5 of 6 congressional districts. [122]

DistrictMcConnellMcGrathRepresentative
1st 67%28% James Comer
2nd 62%33% Brett Guthrie
3rd 37%61% John Yarmuth
4th 60%36% Thomas Massie
5th 74%22% Hal Rogers
6th 51%46% Andy Barr

See also

Notes

Partisan clients

  1. Poll released after the primary in July
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 Poll sponsored by McGrath's campaign
  3. 1 2 3 4 Poll sponsored by Booker's campaign
  4. 1 2 This poll's sponsor, Ditch Mitch Fund, supported the electoral defeat of Mitch McConnell prior to the sampling period
  5. This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501 that supports the Republican Party.
  6. Poll sponsored by U.S. Term Limits, a PAC supporting candidates who support term limits in Congress.
  7. Poll sponsored by AARP.
  8. 1 2 Poll sponsored by The Ditch Mitch Fund
  9. Poll sponsored by Our Lives on the Line

Voter samples

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Broihier and "someone else" with 4%; Tobin with 1%
  3. Broihier with 5%; other with 1%
  4. 1 2 3 Not yet released
  5. Undecided with 10%
  6. Undecided with 5%
  7. Undecided with 3%
  8. Standard VI response
  9. 1 2 Undecided with 12%
  10. If only McConnell and McGrath were candidates
  11. Undecided with 11%
  12. "Someone else" with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  13. "Someone else" and would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 5%
  14. "Someone else" and Undecided with 6%
  15. Undecided with 7%
  16. "someone else" with 8%; undecided with 3%
  17. Undecided with 10%; "Some other candidate" with 9%
  18. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  19. Barron (L) with 4%; "someone else" with 2%; undecided with 3%
  20. Undecided with 7%; "refused" with 1%
  21. Undecided with 6%
  22. Undecided with 8%
  23. Undecided with 10%; "don't know/refused" with 3%

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References

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