2026 United States Senate election in Kentucky

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2026 United States Senate election in Kentucky
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Party Republican Democratic
Incumbent U.S. senator

Mitch McConnell
Republican



The 2026 United States Senate election in Kentucky will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Kentucky. Incumbent seven-term Republican Senator Mitch McConnell, who was re-elected with 57.8% of the vote in 2020, declined to run for reelection.

Contents

Senator Mitch McConnell, first elected in 1984, has announced he will not seek re-election. [1] This decision follows his earlier announcement stepping down as Senate Republican Leader after the 2024 Senate elections.

This will be the first open Senate election in Kentucky since 2010, and the first to this seat since 1972.

Background

Kentucky, a Southern state in the Bible Belt, is generally considered to be a Republican stronghold, having not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1992. Republicans control both U.S. Senate seats, all but two statewide offices, supermajorities in both houses of the Kentucky General Assembly, and all but one seat in Kentucky's U.S. House congressional delegation. [2] However, Democrats control the governorship and lieutenant-governorship which flipped from Republican control in 2019. [3]

McConnell was first elected in 1984 and was re-elected in six subsequent elections. [4]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Publicly expressed interest

Potential

Declined

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Andy
Barr		Daniel
Cameron		Kelly
Craft		Thomas
Massie		Nate
Morris		OtherUndecided
co/efficient (R) [14] February 25–26, 20251,134 (LV)± 3.05%17%39%--3%11%31%
co/efficient [5] December 2–3, 20241,298 (LV)± 3.14%12%37%6%-1%8%36%
10%32%3%16%0%-39%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Inside Elections [19] Solid RJanuary 17, 2025
The Cook Political Report [20] Solid RFebruary 11, 2025
Sabato's Crystal Ball [21] Safe RFebruary 13, 2025

Notes

  1. ↑ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear

References

  1. ↑ Schreiner, Bruce; Freking, Kevin (February 20, 2025). "Sen. Mitch McConnell won't seek reelection in 2026, ending long tenure as Republican power broker". The Associated Press . Washington, D.C. Retrieved February 20, 2025.
  2. ↑ "Kentucky House and Senate Republicans maintain supermajority". kaco.org. Retrieved December 5, 2024.
  3. ↑ Golshan, Tara (November 6, 2019). "Democrat Andy Beshear just unseated Kentucky's Trump-loving governor". Vox. Retrieved December 5, 2024.
  4. ↑ McCausland, Phil (November 4, 2020). "Sen. Mitch McConnell wins another term in Kentucky, NBC News projects". NBC News . Retrieved December 5, 2024.
  5. 1 2 3 Horn, Austin (February 20, 2025). "Daniel Cameron launches 2026 U.S. Senate bid on heels of Mitch McConnell announcement". Lexington Herald-Leader . Retrieved February 20, 2025.
  6. 1 2 Kamisar, Ben (February 20, 2025). "Potential Mitch McConnell successors begin lining up for Kentucky's Senate race". NBC News . Retrieved February 20, 2025.
  7. ↑ Rod, Marc (February 21, 2025). "McConnell's retirement stokes concerns Massie may run for Senate". Jewish Insider . Retrieved February 21, 2025. Massie publicly floated the prospect of running for Senate on Thursday afternoon, posting a poll on X asking followers whether he should remain in the House, run for Senate or run for governor.
  8. ↑ Fields, Ashleigh (February 12, 2025). "Businessman says he won't wait for McConnell retirement if he decides to run for Senate seat". The Hill .
  9. ↑ Arcand, Cameron (February 26, 2025). "CNN pundit Scott Jennings encouraged to run for McConnell's open Senate seat". Fox News . Retrieved February 27, 2025.
  10. 1 2 Horn, Austin; Catanese, David (February 12, 2025). "Andy Barr for Senate? KY Congressman indicates he's ready to run upon McConnell retirement". Lexington Herald-Leader . Retrieved February 12, 2025.
  11. ↑ Catanese, David (March 21, 2024). "Who would be the front-runner for McConnell's Senate seat in 2026?". McClatchy . Retrieved March 21, 2024. A spokesperson for Comer...relayed that Comer has no interest in running for senate even if McConnell does not seek reelection.
  12. ↑ Schreiner, Bruce (February 20, 2025). "Sen. Mitch McConnell won't seek reelection in 2026, ending long tenure as Republican power broker". Associated Press . Retrieved February 20, 2025.
  13. ↑ Horsley, McKenna (February 20, 2025). "Kentucky's McConnell not seeking reelection to U.S. Senate in 2026". Kentucky Lantern . Retrieved February 24, 2025. Former Kentucky Senate Republican Floor Leader Damon Thayer told the Kentucky Lantern that...he does not see himself pursuing a run for the open seat.
  14. ↑ Weigel, David (March 3, 2025). Semafor https://www.semafor.com/article/03/03/2025/mcconnell-protege-daniel-cameron-leads-in-early-kentucky-senate-primary-poll . Retrieved March 3, 2025.{{cite web}}: Missing or empty |title= (help)
  15. ↑ Anderson, Mario (February 10, 2025). "In Focus: House Minority Leader Pamela Stevenson talks 2025 legislative priorities in Kentucky General Assembly". Spectrum News . Retrieved February 12, 2025. Stevenson also confirmed during this interview that she is running in the Democratic primary for Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell's seat in 2026.
  16. ↑ Karyn, Czar (March 1, 2024). "Beshear rules out possible Senate run in 2026". WUKY .
  17. ↑ Barrett, Alexis (February 20, 2025). "Daniel Cameron, Pam Stevenson announce 2026 Senate bids". Marshall County Tribune-Courier. Retrieved February 20, 2025.
  18. ↑ Kight, Stef W.; Solender, Andrew (February 20, 2025). "Mitch McConnell's retirement sparks a political explosion in Kentucky". Axios. Retrieved February 20, 2025.
  19. ↑ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved January 14, 2025.
  20. ↑ "2026 CPR Senate Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 11, 2025.
  21. ↑ "2026 Senate ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved February 13, 2025.
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