2026 United States Senate election in Kentucky

Last updated

2026 United States Senate election in Kentucky
Flag of Kentucky.svg
  2020 November 3, 20262032 
 
Party Republican Democratic

Incumbent U.S. senator

Mitch McConnell
Republican



The 2026 United States Senate election in Kentucky will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Kentucky. Incumbent seven-term Republican Senator Mitch McConnell, who was first elected in 1984, and most recently re-elected with 57.8% of the vote in 2020, declined to run for re-election. [1] This decision follows his earlier announcement to retire as Senate Republican Leader after the 2024 Senate elections.

Contents

This will be the first open Senate election in Kentucky since 2010, and the first to this seat since 1972.

Background

Kentucky, a Southern state in the Bible Belt, is generally considered to be a Republican stronghold, having not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1992. Republicans control both U.S. Senate seats, all but two statewide executive offices, supermajorities in both houses of the Kentucky General Assembly, and all but one seat in Kentucky's U.S. House delegation. [2] Democrats control the governorship and lieutenant-governorship which flipped from Republican control in 2019. [3]

McConnell was first elected in 1984, defeating then-incumbent Walter Dee Huddleston, and was re-elected in six subsequent elections. [4]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Filed paperwork

  • Wende Kennedy [9]
  • Andrew "Nick" Shelley [10]

Publicly expressed interest

Declined

Endorsements

Andy Barr
U.S. representatives
State senators
State representatives
Individuals
Nate Morris
U.S. senators
State representatives
Individuals
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2025
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Andy Barr (R)$3,269,336$853,170$6,109,243
Daniel Cameron (R)$893,223$361,190$532,033
Mike Faris (R)$3,926$5,807$0
Source: Federal Election Commission [28]

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Andy
Barr
Daniel
Cameron
Kelly
Craft
Thomas
Massie
Nate
Morris
OtherUndecided
McLaughlin & Associates (R) [29] [A] April 13–15, 2025500 (LV)± 4.5%18%44%2%36%
co/efficient (R) [30] February 25–26, 20251,134 (LV)± 3.1%18%39%3%11% [b] 31%
co/efficient (R) [31] December 2–3, 20241,298 (LV)± 3.1%12%37%6%1%8%36%
10%32%3%16%0%39%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Filed paperwork

Potential

Declined

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2025
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Pamela Stevenson (D)$225,321$176,656$48,665
Source: Federal Election Commission [28]

Independents

Candidates

Filed paperwork

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Inside Elections [39] Solid RAugust 12, 2025
The Cook Political Report [40] Solid RAugust 18, 2025
Sabato's Crystal Ball [41] Safe RAugust 12, 2025
Race To The WH [42] Safe RSeptember 4, 2025

Notes

  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. "Someone else" with 11%

Partisan clients

  1. Poll commissioned by Cameron's campaign

References

  1. Schreiner, Bruce; Freking, Kevin (February 20, 2025). "Sen. Mitch McConnell won't seek reelection in 2026, ending long tenure as Republican power broker". The Associated Press . Washington, D.C. Retrieved February 20, 2025.
  2. "Kentucky House and Senate Republicans maintain supermajority". kaco.org. Retrieved December 5, 2024.
  3. Golshan, Tara (November 6, 2019). "Democrat Andy Beshear just unseated Kentucky's Trump-loving governor". Vox. Retrieved December 5, 2024.
  4. McCausland, Phil (November 4, 2020). "Sen. Mitch McConnell wins another term in Kentucky, NBC News projects". NBC News . Retrieved December 5, 2024.
  5. 1 2 Horn, Austin (April 22, 2025). "Kentucky Rep. Andy Barr launches bid for U.S. Senate, gets Rogers' support". Lexington Herald-Leader . Retrieved April 22, 2025.
  6. Horn, Austin (February 20, 2025). "Daniel Cameron launches 2026 U.S. Senate bid on heels of Mitch McConnell announcement". Lexington Herald-Leader . Retrieved February 20, 2025.
  7. Sheroan, Ben (March 15, 2025). "Outsider thinks voters are looking for different voice". The News-Enterprise. Retrieved May 11, 2025.
  8. Horn, Austin (June 26, 2025). "KY entrepreneur Nate Morris launches 'referendum' on McConnell bid for U.S. Senate". Lexington Herald-Leader .
  9. "KENNEDY, WENDE CAROL MS – Candidate overview". FEC.gov. January 1, 2019. Retrieved May 11, 2025.
  10. "SHELLY, NICHOLAS ANDREW FEC FORM 2 STATEMENT OF CANDIDACY FILING FEC-1895468".
  11. Christenson, Josh (April 30, 2025). "CNN's Scott Jennings mulling major career move —but is awaiting Trump's approval". New York Post . Retrieved May 1, 2025.
  12. Catanese, David (March 21, 2024). "Who would be the front-runner for McConnell's Senate seat in 2026?". McClatchy . Retrieved March 21, 2024. A spokesperson for Comer...relayed that Comer has no interest in running for senate even if McConnell does not seek reelection.
  13. Rod, Marc (February 21, 2025). "McConnell's retirement stokes concerns Massie may run for Senate". Jewish Insider . Retrieved February 21, 2025. Massie publicly floated the prospect of running for Senate on Thursday afternoon, posting a poll on X asking followers whether he should remain in the House, run for Senate or run for governor.
  14. Walker, Jackson (March 11, 2025). "Thomas Massie announces reelection bid as Trump vows to back primary challenger". The National Desk . Retrieved March 11, 2025.
  15. Schreiner, Bruce (February 20, 2025). "Sen. Mitch McConnell won't seek reelection in 2026, ending long tenure as Republican power broker". Associated Press . Retrieved February 20, 2025.
  16. Horn, Austin; Catanese, David (February 12, 2025). "Andy Barr for Senate? KY Congressman indicates he's ready to run upon McConnell retirement". Lexington Herald-Leader . Retrieved February 12, 2025.
  17. Horsley, McKenna (February 20, 2025). "Kentucky's McConnell not seeking reelection to U.S. Senate in 2026". Kentucky Lantern . Retrieved February 24, 2025. Former Kentucky Senate Republican Floor Leader Damon Thayer told the Kentucky Lantern that...he does not see himself pursuing a run for the open seat.
  18. 1 2 Kelly, Erin (April 23, 2025). "Rep. Andy Barr touts GOP endorsements, looking to secure Trump's support". Spectrum News . Retrieved April 24, 2025.
  19. 1 2 3 4 Horsley, McKenna; Lucke, Jamie (April 23, 2025). "Race is on in KY for U.S. Senate — and Trump's nod — as second Republican announces". Kentucky Lantern . Retrieved April 24, 2025.
  20. Pinski, Hannah (April 22, 2025). "Andy Barr starts Senate campaign, announces he will run for Mitch McConnell's seat in 2026". Courier Journal . Retrieved April 24, 2025.
  21. Samuels, Brett (July 24, 2025). "Trump ally Banks endorses Nate Morris in Kentucky Senate race". The Hill . Retrieved July 24, 2025.
  22. Wren, Adam (July 30, 2025). "Bernie Moreno endorses Nate Morris in Kentucky Senate race to replace Mitch McConnell". Politico . Retrieved July 30, 2025.
  23. Aulbach, Lucas. "Race to replace Mitch McConnell heats up on stage: 3 takeaways from Fancy Farm 2025". The Courier-Journal. Retrieved August 4, 2025.
  24. Stone, Matt (June 30, 2025). "MAGA supporter Charlie Kirk explains why he's backing Nate Morris for US Senate". Courier Journal . Retrieved June 30, 2025.
  25. Renewal, Republicans for National (August 8, 2025). "Republicans for National Renewal Endorses Nate Morris for U.S. Senate in Kentucky". Republicans for National Renewal. Retrieved August 9, 2025.
  26. "Senate Conservatives Fund". www.senateconservatives.com. Retrieved August 23, 2025.
  27. https://townhall.com/tipsheet/dmitri-bolt/2025/07/30/sen-bernie-moreno-throws-support-behind-nate-morris-in-senate-bid-n2661164#google_vignette
  28. 1 2 "2026 Election United States Senate – Kentucky". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission . Retrieved April 23, 2025.
  29. McLaughlin, John (April 21, 2025). "Kentucky Statewide – Republican Primary for U.S. Senate" (PDF). Cameron for Kentucky. Retrieved April 24, 2025.
  30. Weigel, David (March 3, 2025). "McConnell protégé Cameron leads in early Kentucky Senate primary poll". Semafor. Retrieved March 3, 2025.
  31. Horn, Austin (February 11, 2025). "Is Daniel Cameron running for Senate? Former KY AG says he 'would be honored to serve'". Lexington Herald Leader . Retrieved April 24, 2025.
  32. Anderson, Mario (February 10, 2025). "In Focus: House Minority Leader Pamela Stevenson talks 2025 legislative priorities in Kentucky General Assembly". Spectrum News . Retrieved February 12, 2025. Stevenson also confirmed during this interview that she is running in the Democratic primary for Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell's seat in 2026.
  33. "RANDALL, JARED – Candidate overview". FEC.gov. January 1, 2019. Retrieved May 11, 2025.
  34. "Jared Randall Socialist Democrat for Kentucky U.S. Senate". Facebook.com. Retrieved May 11, 2025.
  35. 1 2 3 Horn, Austin (March 6, 2025). "With Beshear ruling out Senate run, some Kentucky Democrats' attention turns to top ally". Lexington Herald-Leader .
  36. Horn, Austin (September 4, 2025). "Sen. Andy Beshear? Thanks, but no thanks, he says to prominent Dem supporters". Lexington Herald-Leader . Retrieved September 4, 2025.
  37. Barrett, Alexis (February 20, 2025). "Daniel Cameron, Pam Stevenson announce 2026 Senate bids". Marshall County Tribune-Courier. Retrieved February 20, 2025. JT Henderson, a representative for Lt. Governor Jacqueline Coleman, said that Coleman is 'not interested' in running.
  38. "DUNCAN, SCOTT MICHEAL – Candidate overview". FEC.gov. January 1, 2019. Retrieved May 11, 2025.
  39. "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved January 14, 2025.
  40. "2026 CPR Senate Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 11, 2025.
  41. "2026 Senate ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved February 13, 2025.
  42. "2026 Senate Forecast". Race to the WH. Retrieved March 19, 2025.
Official campaign websites