2026 United States Senate election in Minnesota

Last updated

2026 United States Senate election in Minnesota
Flag of Minnesota.svg
  2020
November 3, 2026
2032 
 
Party Democratic (DFL) Republican

Incumbent U.S. senator

Tina Smith
Democratic (DFL)



The 2026 United States Senate election in Minnesota will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Minnesota, concurrently with other elections to the U.S. Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and other state and local elections. Primary elections will be held on August 11, 2026. Incumbent Democratic Senator Tina Smith is not seeking election to a second full term. Smith was elected to her first full term with 48.74% of the vote in 2020 after winning a special election in 2018 to complete the term of former Senator Al Franken, who resigned amid sexual harassment controversies. [1] [2]

Contents

This will be the first U.S. Senate election in Minnesota without an incumbent since 2006. [3]

Background

Minnesota is considered a blue state at the federal and state levels. Kamala Harris won it by four percentage points in the 2024 presidential election, and the last time a Republican won a statewide race was in 2006. The most recent Senate election, in 2024, saw DFL incumbent Amy Klobuchar defeat Republican Royce White by nearly 16 points. [4] The most recent election for this seat, held in 2020, saw Smith defeat Republican nominee Jason Lewis by five points. [5]

Democrats control all statewide offices, both U.S. Senate seats, and the minimum majority in the Minnesota Senate, while the Minnesota House of Representatives and the U.S. House delegation are both evenly split. [6] [7]

Democratic–Farmer–Labor primary

Campaign

The Democratic primary election between progressive Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan and moderate U.S. Representative Angie Craig is widely seen as a part of the national struggle since the 2024 U.S. elections between the progressive and moderate wings of the Democratic party, with endorsements split by ideology. [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15]

Craig reportedly has the private backing of the Democratic Senate leadership, including Chuck Schumer, Kirsten Gillibrand, and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), but they have yet to publicly endorse her. [16] [17] [18] [19] [15]

Former Minnesota House Speaker Melissa Hortman was reportedly considering running for the seat before her assassination in June 2025. [20]

Flanagan has rejected accepting donations from corporate PACs or AIPAC while Craig has defended accepting them. Newsweek called their contest an "ideological proxy fight between Bernie Sanders-style progressivism and Bill Clinton-esque 'Third Way' centrism". [21]

Flanagan and Craig condemned the killing of Renée Good by an ICE agent amid Trump's mass deportation campaign. Flanagan said she supports a "complete and total overhaul" of ICE and criticized Craig for being "politically expedient" and voting for the Laken Riley Act and a resolution expressing gratitude to ICE agents. [22] [23] Craig said she stood by her votes and that "Flanagan ... is twisting this and trying to create some sort of political advantage ... that is disgusting". [24] [25] Flanagan has since expressed support for dismantling ICE and replacing it, viewing it as beyond reform while Craig has criticized her stance as extreme and said it will push away independents. [26] [27]

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Angie Craig
Executive branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
Labor unions
Organizations
Peggy Flanagan
Executive branch officials
U.S. senators
Statewide officials
State legislators
  • 4 state senators [a]
  • 12 state representatives [b]
Local officials
Labor unions
Organizations
Declined to endorse
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials

Fundraising

Italics indicate a withdrawn candidate.

Campaign finance reports for Q3 Tooltip Fiscal quarter, 2025
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Angie Craig (DFL)$4,688,414$1,735,015$2,953,399
Peggy Flanagan (DFL)$2,283,671$1,447,978$835,693
Melisa López Franzen (DFL)$299,376$299,376$0
Source: Federal Election Commission [87]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [c]
Margin
of error
Angie
Craig
Peggy
Flanagan
OtherUndecided
GQR (D) [88] [A] January 14–20, 2026600 (LV)36%49%15%
Public Policy Polling (D) [89] [B] January 16–17, 2026976 (LV)± 3.1%28%40%31%
Impact Research (D) [90] [C] January 13–15, 2026600 (LV)± 4.0%42%45%3%9%
NRSC (R) [91] July 4–7, 2025559 (LV)± 3.3%24%30%45%
Public Policy Polling (D) [92] February 14–15, 2025668 (LV)22%52%27%

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Filed paperwork

Potential

  • Jim Nash, state representative from district 48A (2015–present) [101]

Declined

Endorsements

Adam Schwarze
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Organizations
Michele Tafoya
U.S. senators
Organizations
Royce White
Individuals

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports for Q3 Tooltip Fiscal quarter, 2025
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Ray Petersen (R)$104$104$0
Adam Schwarze (R)$480,698$312,783$167,915
Tom Weiler (R)$52,778$242$54,297
Royce White (R)$393,143$426,798$105,170
Source: Federal Election Commission [87]

Independents

Declared

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Inside Elections [116] Likely DAugust 12, 2025
The Cook Political Report [117] Likely DOctober 14, 2025
Sabato's Crystal Ball [118] Likely DOctober 23, 2025
Race To The WH [119] Lean DSeptember 4, 2025

Polling

Angie Craig vs. Michele Tafoya

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [c]
Margin
of error
Angie
Craig (DFL)
Michele
Tafoya (R)
Undecided
Impact Research (D) [120] [C] July 8–11, 2025604 (LV)± 4.0%49%45%6%

Peggy Flanagan vs. Michele Tafoya

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [c]
Margin
of error
Peggy
Flanagan (DFL)
Michele
Tafoya (R)
Undecided
Impact Research (D) [120] [C] July 8–11, 2025604 (LV)± 4.0%48%45%7%
Hypothetical polling

Angie Craig vs. Generic Republican

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [c]
Margin
of error
Angie
Craig (DFL)
Generic
Republican
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) [121] September 15–16, 20251,015 (V)47%43%10%

Peggy Flanagan vs. Generic Republican

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [c]
Margin
of error
Peggy
Flanagan (DFL)
Generic
Republican
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) [121] September 15–16, 20251,015 (V)46%44%10%

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear

Partisan clients

  1. Poll sponsored by Flanagan's campaign
  2. Polling commissioned by Clear Voice Minnesota, which supports Flanagan
  3. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by Craig's campaign

References

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  3. Masters, Clay (February 14, 2025). "An open Minnesota Senate seat is enticing to plenty but unclear how many will take plunge". MPR News. Archived from the original on February 14, 2025. Retrieved March 1, 2025.
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  113. "Law Enforcement Today Proudly Endorses Navy SEAL Adam Schwarze for U.S. Senate". Law Enforcement Today. Retrieved January 7, 2026.
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