2026 United States Senate election in Minnesota

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2026 United States Senate election in Minnesota
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Party Democratic (DFL) Republican
Incumbent U.S. senator

Tina Smith
Democratic (DFL)



The 2026 United States Senate election in Minnesota will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Minnesota, concurrently with other elections to the U.S. Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and other state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Senator Tina Smith declined to seek election to a second full term. Smith was elected to her first full term with 48.74% of the vote in 2020 after winning a special election in 2018 to complete the term of former Senator Al Franken who resigned amid sexual harassment allegations. [1] [2]

Contents

This will be the first U.S. Senate election in Minnesota without an incumbent since 2006. [3]

Background

Minnesota is considered to be a slightly to moderately blue state at the federal and state levels. Kamala Harris won the state by four percentage points in the 2024 presidential election, while the last time a statewide race was won by a Republican was in 2006, when Republican Tim Pawlenty narrowly defeated DFL candidate Mike Hatch. However, elections are generally close in the state, typically decided by single-digit margins.[ citation needed ] The most recent Senate election, in 2024, saw DFL incumbent Amy Klobuchar defeat Republican Royce White by nearly 16 points. [4] The most recent election for this seat, held in 2020, saw incumbent Democrat Tina Smith win her first full term in the Senate by five points over Republican Jason Lewis. [5] Smith had originally been nominated by Governor Mark Dayton to take the vacant seat following the resignation of incumbent Al Franken; she had been Dayton's lieutenant governor. [6] Smith won the special election to serve the balance of Franken's term in 2018. [7]

Despite the competitive nature, Democrats have had considerably more success in the state in recent years. Democrats control all statewide offices, both U.S. Senate seats and the Minnesota Senate, while the Minnesota House of Representatives and the U.S. House delegation are both evenly split. [8] [9]

On February 13, 2025, Smith announced that she would not run for a second full term as senator. [2] That same day, DFL Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan and Republican former basketball player and nominee for senate in 2024 Royce White both announced their campaigns. [10]

Democratic–Farmer–Labor primary

Candidates

Declared

Publicly expressed interest

Potential

Declined

Endorsements

Angie Craig [a]
U.S. Representatives
Declined to endorse
Statewide officials

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Angie Craig vs. Peggy Flanagan
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [b] 		Margin
of error		Angie
Craig		Peggy
Flanagan		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) [24] February 14–15, 2025668 (LV)–22%52%27%

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Publicly expressed interest

Potential

Declined

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Inside Elections [36] BattlegroundFebruary 13, 2025
The Cook Political Report [37] Lean DFebruary 13, 2025
Sabato's Crystal Ball [38] Lean DFebruary 13, 2025

Notes

  1. ↑ Has not declared her candidacy.
  2. ↑ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear

References

  1. ↑ Stolberg, Sheryl; Alcindor, Yamiche; Fandos, Nicholas (December 7, 2017). "Senator Al Franken to Resign From Senate amid Harassment Allegations". New York Times. Retrieved February 14, 2025.
  2. 1 2 3 Bakst, Brian (February 13, 2025). "Sen. Tina Smith won't seek reelection in 2026, putting Minnesota seat up for grabs". MPR News. Retrieved February 13, 2025.
  3. ↑ Masters, Clay (February 14, 2025). "An open Minnesota Senate seat is enticing to plenty but unclear how many will take plunge". MPR News. Retrieved March 1, 2025.
  4. ↑ "Minnesota Senate Election 2024 Live Results: Amy Klobuchar Wins". www.nbcnews.com. Retrieved February 20, 2025.
  5. ↑ "Minnesota U.S. Senate Election Results". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN   0362-4331 . Retrieved February 20, 2025.
  6. ↑ Rao, Maya (January 3, 2018). "Al Franken submits resignation letter to Senate; Tina Smith ready to step in". www.startribune.com. Retrieved February 20, 2025.
  7. ↑ "Minnesota U.S. Senate Special Election Results". The New York Times. January 28, 2019. ISSN   0362-4331 . Retrieved February 20, 2025.
  8. ↑ "Party Control of the Minnesota House of Representatives - Minnesota Legislative Reference Library". www.lrl.mn.gov. Retrieved February 20, 2025.
  9. ↑ "Party Control of the Minnesota Senate - Minnesota Legislative Reference Library". www.lrl.mn.gov. Retrieved February 20, 2025.
  10. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Bierschbach, Briana; Faircloth, Ryan (February 13, 2025). "Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan announces run for U.S. Senate, Rep. Ilhan Omar considering". Minnesota Star Tribune . Retrieved February 14, 2025.
  11. ↑ Fortinsky, Sarah (February 20, 2025). "Minnesota lieutenant governor launches Senate bid". The Hill . Retrieved February 20, 2025.
  12. ↑ Ferguson, Dana (March 10, 2025). "Former state Sen. López Franzen announces U.S. Senate run in Minnesota". Minnesota Public Radio . Retrieved March 10, 2025.
  13. ↑ Brown, Kyle (February 17, 2025). "Rep. Angie Craig 'giving serious consideration' to Senate run in 2026". KSTP-TV . Retrieved February 17, 2025.
  14. ↑ Nir, David; Singer, Jeff (February 17, 2025). "Morning Digest: A Georgia Republican says he alone can raise unlimited sums. His rivals have other ideas". The Downballot. Retrieved February 17, 2025. Attorney General Keith Ellison, who was mentioned as a possible Democratic candidate for Minnesota's newly open Senate seat, confirmed Friday that he's thinking about it
  15. 1 2 Nir, David (February 25, 2025). "Morning Digest: Ron DeSantis uses 'officially nonexistent' clout to tout wife as successor". The Downballot. Retrieved February 25, 2025.
  16. ↑ Solender, Andrew; Van Oot, Torey (February 13, 2025). "Ilhan Omar, Angie Craig eye bids for U.S. Senate seat". Axios . Retrieved February 14, 2025.
  17. 1 2 Nesterak, Max (February 13, 2025). "Sen. Tina Smith won't seek reelection in 2026". Minnesota Reformer. Retrieved February 13, 2025.
  18. ↑ Murphy, Mary (February 14, 2025). "Flanagan, White enter US Senate race in Minnesota; Ellison says he is 'not in or out'". Brainerd Dispatch . Retrieved February 14, 2025.
  19. 1 2 Ferguson, Dana (February 26, 2025). "Gov. Tim Walz officially rules out a run for U.S. Senate". Minnesota Public Radio . Retrieved February 27, 2025.
  20. ↑ "A look at who might run for Sen. Tina Smith's seat in the Senate". Minnesota Public Radio . February 13, 2025. Retrieved February 20, 2025.
  21. ↑ Wu, Nicholas; Mutnick, Ally (February 27, 2025). "Walz announcement clears way for Angie Craig in Minnesota Senate race". Politico . Retrieved February 27, 2025. One name to cross off the list of potential candidates: first-term Democratic Rep. Kelly Morrison, who said in a brief interview she was staying put
  22. 1 2 Kassel, Matthew (February 19, 2025). "Minnesota Senate race turning into proxy battle between moderates and progressives". Jewish Insider . Retrieved February 20, 2025.
  23. ↑ Oot, Torey Van (February 26, 2025). "Gov. Tim Walz rules out run for U.S. Senate". Axios . Retrieved February 26, 2025.
  24. ↑ Nir, David (February 20, 2025). "Morning Digest: Liberal candidates run up the vote in Wisconsin primaries". The Downballot. Retrieved February 20, 2025.
  25. ↑ Frey, Josh (February 13, 2025). "Adam Schwarze announces candidacy for U.S. Senate in Minnesota to replace Tina Smith". KAAL-TV . Retrieved February 13, 2025.
  26. ↑ Moser, Riley (February 17, 2025). "Here's who is considering running for the open U.S. Senate seat in Minnesota". WCCO-TV . Retrieved February 17, 2025. Republican state Sen. Julia Coleman told WCCO she is considering running for the seat.
  27. ↑ Erickson, Austin (February 19, 2025). "Michele Tafoya close to making a decision on MN Senate run". WDAY . Retrieved February 19, 2025.
  28. ↑ "House Tied + Walz at SXSW". The Daily Agenda. March 12, 2025. Retrieved March 14, 2025.
  29. 1 2 Karnowski, Steve (February 13, 2025). "Minnesota Sen. Tina Smith won't run in 2026. Fellow Democrat Gov. Tim Walz and others eye the seat". Associated Press . Retrieved February 13, 2025.
  30. ↑ Gans, Jared; Vakil, Caroline (February 16, 2025). "Democrats' headaches multiply in battle for Senate". The Hill . Retrieved February 16, 2025.
  31. ↑ Maurice, Jim (February 21, 2025). "Minnesota Speaker Of The House Rules Out Run for U.S. Senate". WJON . Retrieved February 21, 2025.
  32. ↑ Svitek, Patrick; Kornfield, Meryl; Bogage, Jacob; Dent, Alec (February 18, 2025). "Ken Martin's first big trip as DNC chair". The Washington Post . Retrieved February 18, 2025. In a post Saturday on X, state Sen. Zach Duckworth (R) ruled himself out of the [Senate] race
  33. ↑ Gans, Jared (February 13, 2025). "Minnesota Sen. Tina Smith announces she won't seek reelection in 2026". The Hill . Retrieved February 13, 2025.
  34. ↑ Nir, David (February 19, 2025). "Morning Digest: Democrats land a major name in one of the few 'Harris-Republican' House districts". The Downballot. Retrieved February 19, 2025. Two more Republicans, state Sen. Zach Duckworth and attorney Chris Madel, each took their names out of contention for the Senate race.
  35. ↑ Raatsi, Hayley (February 19, 2025). "EXCLUSIVE: Rep. Pete Stauber not running for U.S. Senate". KBJR-TV . Retrieved February 19, 2025.
  36. ↑ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved January 14, 2025.
  37. ↑ "2026 CPR Senate Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 11, 2025.
  38. ↑ "2026 Senate ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved February 13, 2025.
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