2016 Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary

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2016 Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary
Flag of Pennsylvania.svg
  2008 April 26, 2016 (2016-04-26) 2020  
  Hillary Clinton by Gage Skidmore 2.jpg Bernie Sanders September 2015 cropped.jpg
Candidate Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders
Home state New York Vermont
Delegate count10683
Popular vote935,107731,881
Percentage55.61%43.53%

2016 Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary election by county.svg
Election results by county.

The 2016 Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary was held on April 26 in the U.S. state of Pennsylvania as one of the Democratic Party's primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

Contents

The Democratic Party's primaries in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland and Rhode Island were held the same day, as were Republican primaries in the same five states, including their own Pennsylvania primary. Despite winning the Pennsylvania primary, Clinton went on to lose the state to Republican candidate Donald Trump in the general election.

Opinion polling

Poll sourceDate1st2nd3rdOther
Official Primary results April 26, 2016Hillary Clinton
55.6%
Bernie Sanders
43.5%
Other
0.9%
FOX 29/Opinion Savvy [1]

Margin of error: ± 3.2%
Sample size: 942

April 24, 2016Hillary Clinton
52%
Bernie Sanders
41%
Others / Undecided
7%
CPEC LLC [2]

Margin of error: ± 2.3%
Sample size: 665

April 22–24, 2016Hillary Clinton
63%
Bernie Sanders
37%
Public Policy Polling [3]

Margin of error: ± 3.6%
Sample size: 728

April 22–24, 2016Hillary Clinton
51%
Bernie Sanders
41%
Others / Undecided
9%
American Research Group [4]

Margin of error: ± 5.0%
Sample size: 400

April 21-24, 2016Hillary Clinton
58%
Bernie Sanders
38%
Others / Undecided
4%
Harper Polling [5]

Margin of error: ± 3.9%
Sample size: 641

April 21-23, 2016Hillary Clinton
61%
Bernie Sanders
33%
Others / Undecided
6%
CBS/YouGov [6]

Margin of error: ± 6.7%
Sample size: 831

April 20-22, 2016Hillary Clinton
51%
Bernie Sanders
43%
Others / Undecided
6%
NBC/WSJ/Marist [7]

Margin of error: ± 1.9%
Sample size: 734

April 18-20, 2016Hillary Clinton
55%
Bernie Sanders
40%
Others / Undecided
5%
Monmouth [8]

Margin of error: ± 5.6%
Sample size: 302

April 17-19, 2016Hillary Clinton
52%
Bernie Sanders
39%
Others / Undecided
9%
Franklin & Marshall College [9]

Margin of error: ± 5.3%
Sample size: 510

April 11-18, 2016Hillary Clinton
58%
Bernie Sanders
31%
Others / Undecided
11%
FOX News [10]

Margin of error: ± 3.5%
Sample size: 805

April 4-7, 2016Hillary Clinton
49%
Bernie Sanders
38%
Others / Undecided
13%
Quinnipiac [11]

Margin of error: ± 4.3%
Sample size: 514

March 30-April 4, 2016Hillary Clinton
50%
Bernie Sanders
44%
Others / Undecided
6%
Harper [12]

Margin of error: ± 4.0%
Sample size: 603

April 2-3, 2016Hillary Clinton
55%
Bernie Sanders
33%
Others / Undecided
12%
Franklin & Marshall [13]

Margin of error: ± 4.7%
Sample size: 408

March 14-20, 2016Hillary Clinton
53%
Bernie Sanders
28%
Others / Undecided
19%
Harper [14]

Margin of error: ± 5.3%
Sample size: 347

March 1-2, 2016Hillary Clinton
57%
Bernie Sanders
27%
Others / Undecided
16%
Franklin & Marshall College [15]

Margin of error: ± 3.1%
Sample size: 486

February 13–21, 2016Hillary Clinton
48%
Bernie Sanders
27%
Others / Undecided
25%
Robert Morris University [16]

Margin of error: ± 4.5%
Sample size: 511

February 11–16, 2016Hillary Clinton
48%
Bernie Sanders
41%
Others / Undecided
11%
Harper [17]

Margin of error: ± 3.8%
Sample size: 640

January 22–23, 2016Hillary Clinton
55%
Bernie Sanders
28%
Martin O'Malley
4%
Undecided 13%
Franklin & Marshall [18]

Margin of error: ± 3.6%
Sample size: 361

January 18–23, 2016Hillary Clinton
46%
Bernie Sanders
29%
Martin O'Malley
2%
Other 7%, Undecided 16%
Polls in 2015
Poll sourceDate1st2nd3rdOther
Franklin & Marshall [19]

Margin of error: ± 3.9%
Sample size: 303

October 19–25, 2015Hillary Clinton
52%
Bernie Sanders
18%
Martin O'Malley
0%
Other 12%, Undecided 18%
Public Policy Polling

Margin of error: ± 4.8%
Sample size: 416

October 8–11, 2015Hillary Clinton
40%
Bernie Sanders
22%
Joe Biden
20%
Lincoln Chafee 3%, Martin O'Malley 2%, Lawrence Lessig 1%, Jim Webb 1%, Not Sure 12%
Quinnipiac University [20]

Margin of error: ± 4.6%
Sample size: 462

August 7–18, 2015Hillary Clinton
45%
Bernie Sanders
19%
Joe Biden
17%
Jim Webb 1%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Lincoln Chafee 0%, Other 2%, Wouldn't vote 3%, Undecided 12%
Quinnipiac University [21]

Margin of error: ± 4.9%
Sample size: 402

June 4–15, 2015Hillary Clinton
53%
Joe Biden
15%
Bernie Sanders
10%
Jim Webb 2%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Lincoln Chafee 0%, Other 1%, Wouldn't vote 4%, Undecided 15%
Public Policy Polling

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 385

May 21–24, 2015Hillary Clinton
63%
Bernie Sanders
14%
Martin O'Malley
6%
Lincoln Chafee 3%, Jim Webb 3%, Not sure 12%
Quinnipiac University

Margin of error: ± 4.8%
Sample size: 415

March 17–28, 2015Hillary Clinton
48%
Elizabeth Warren
15%
Joe Biden
13%
Martin O'Malley 1%, Bernie Sanders 1%, Jim Webb 1%, Other 2%, Wouldn't vote 4%, Undecided 15%
Joe Biden
34%
Elizabeth Warren
27%
Martin O'Malley
4%
Bernie Sanders 2%, Jim Webb 1%, Other 3%, Wouldn't vote 5%, Undecided 25%
Quinnipiac University

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 392

January 22 – February 1, 2015Hillary Clinton
54%
Elizabeth Warren
12%
Joe Biden
10%
Martin O'Malley 2%, Bernie Sanders 2%, Jim Webb 1%, Other 1%, Wouldn't vote 4%, Undecided 15%
Joe Biden
34%
Elizabeth Warren
21%
Martin O'Malley
5%
Jim Webb 4%, Bernie Sanders 3%, Other 2%, Wouldn't vote 5%, Undecided 26%
Public Policy Polling

Margin of error: ± 4.4%
Sample size: 494

January 15–18, 2015Hillary Clinton
58%
Joe Biden
13%
Elizabeth Warren
11%
Bernie Sanders 5%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Jim Webb 1%, Someone else/Undecided 11%
Polls in 2014
Poll sourceDate1st2nd3rdOther
Public Policy Polling

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 382

May 30 – June 1, 2014Hillary Clinton
65%
Joe Biden
9%
Andrew Cuomo
5%
Elizabeth Warren 5%, Cory Booker 4%, Kirsten Gillibrand 1%, Brian Schweitzer 1%, Mark Warner 1%, Martin O'Malley 0%, Someone else/Not sure 10%
Franklin & Marshall College

Margin of error: ± 4.3%
Sample size: 524

March 25–31, 2014Hillary Clinton
55%
Joe Biden
5%
Elizabeth Warren
4%
Andrew Cuomo 2%, Howard Dean 0%, Other 5%, Undecided 29%
Franklin & Marshall College

Margin of error: ± 4.2%
Sample size: 548

February 18–23, 2014Hillary Clinton
58%
Elizabeth Warren
7%
Joe Biden
6%
Andrew Cuomo 2%, Howard Dean 1%, Other 3%, Undecided 23%
Polls in 2013
Poll sourceDate1st2nd3rdOther
Public Policy Polling

Margin of error: ± 4.7%
Sample size: 436

November 22–25, 2013Hillary Clinton
61%
Joe Biden
13%
Elizabeth Warren
11%
Andrew Cuomo 3%, Cory Booker 2%, Kirsten Gillibrand 1%, Martin O'Malley 0%, Brian Schweitzer 0%, Mark Warner 0%, Someone Else/Undecided 9%

Results

Pennsylvania Democratic primary, April 26, 2016
CandidatePopular voteEstimated delegates
CountPercentagePledgedUnpledgedTotal
Hillary Clinton 935,10755.61%10620126
Bernie Sanders 731,88143.53%83083
Rocky De La Fuente 14,4390.86%000
Total1,681,427100%18920209
Source: The Green Papers , Pennsylvania State Elections Official Results

Results by county

County [22] Clinton%Sanders%OthersTotalsTurnoutMargin
Adams 3,86348.08%4,10151.04%718,03541.15%-2.96%
Allegheny 123,71555.08%99,07844.11%1,819224,61243.18%10.97%
Armstrong 2,99248.30%3,07349.60%1306,19539.00%-1.31%
Beaver 13,53156.92%9,87341.53%36923,77340.41%15.39%
Bedford 1,38848.91%1,38748.87%632,83829.56%0.04%
Berks 21,06348.35%22,07850.68%42243,56337.68%-2.33%
Blair 3,96546.87%4,36051.54%13523,98835.27%-4.67%
Bradford 1,80948.88%1,83949.69%533,70135.49%-0.81%
Bucks 46,91755.90%36,17343.10%83783,92743.88%12.80%
Butler 8,79052.10%7,83346.43%24916,87240.98%5.67%
Cambria 8,50747.16%9,02450.02%50918,04039.64%-2.87%
Cameron 18641.89%24054.05%1844436.33%-12.16%
Carbon 3,38448.73%3,46049.82%1016,94538.13%-1.09%
Centre 8,45844.72%10,33154.63%12318,91241.15%-9.90%
Chester 33,08255.62%26,19344.04%20459,47946.05%11.58%
Clarion 1,52949.34%1,51148.76%593,09938.37%0.58%
Clearfield 3,19447.30%3,41450.56%1456,75332.18%-3.26%
Clinton 1,70448.63%1,73949.63%613,50439.02%-1.00%
Columbia 2,50440.48%3,60158.21%816,18639.59%-17.73%
Crawford 3,70748.69%3,78949.76%1187,61439.39%-1.08%
Cumberland 12,42151.54%11,51347.77%16824,10245.45%3.77%
Dauphin 18,47456.82%13,78742.41%25032,51136.26%14.42%
Delaware 46,25259.73%30,82439.80%36377,43943.45%19.92%
Elk 1,60145.50%1,84652.46%723,51936.47%-6.96%
Erie 20,39552.17%18,36246.97%33839,09540.76%5.20%
Fayette 9,19557.69%6,46040.53%28515,94032.70%17.16%
Forest 25152.07%22145.85%1048237.28%6.22%
Franklin 4,70751.69%4,28247.02%1189,10737.27%4.67%
Fulton 36648.87%36548.73%1874928.81%0.13%
Greene 2,26852.55%1,92744.65%1214,31634.27%7.90%
Huntingdon 1,30443.28%1,66655.29%433,01333.11%-12.01%
Indiana 4,04950.34%3,83947.73%1568,04440.04%2.61%
Jefferson 1,24943.89%1,50752.95%909,71229.30%-9.07%
Juniata 66445.60%75451.79%383,99636.44%-6.18%
Lackawanna 23,02056.52%17,30842.49%40240,73045.36%14.02%
Lancaster 19,84047.97%21,32151.55%19741,35840.14%-3.58%
Lawrence 5,84558.64%3,98139.94%1429,96836.39%18.70%
Lebanon 4,66949.88%4,59949.13%939,36135.78%0.75%
Lehigh 20,43052.40%18,33847.03%22438,99235.66%5.37%
Luzerne 20,54251.94%18,54346.89%46239,54737.49%5.05%
Lycoming 3,80843.94%4,73054.58%1288,66639.29%-10.64%
McKean 1,05346.18%1,19052.19%372,28031.50%-6.01%
Mercer 6,53056.99%4,73941.36%19011,45933.91%15.63%
Miflin 1,20148.29%1,24249.94%442,48732.93%-1.65%
Monroe 8,16953.27%7,04245.92%12315,33431.37%7.35%
Montgomery 75,62859.00%52,13240.67%421128,18149.31%18.33%
Montour 84647.85%89050.34%321,76837.84%-2.49%
Northampton 18,10451.18%16,94047.89%32835,37237.27%3.29%
Northumberland 3,58248.92%3,63249.60%1087,32233.78%-0.68%
Perry 1,32942.60%1,75256.15%393,12043.59%-13.56%
Philadelphia 218,95962.59%129,35336.98%1,493349,80543.50%25.62%
Pike 2,00951.22%1,89448.29%193,92229.70%2.93%
Potter 40240.94%56057.03%2098233.83%-16.09%
Schuylkill 6,53451.30%6,04047.42%16412,73837.61%3.88%
Snyder 1,12550.40%1,08148.43%262,23241.42%1.97%
Somerset 3,11448.18%3,20649.61%1436,46335.95%-1.42%
Sullivan 31250.16%29647.59%1462240.65%2.57%
Susquehanna 1,68050.42%1,61048.32%423,33241.41%2.10%
Tioga 1,05543.20%1,35455.45%332,44234.07%-12.24%
Union 1,62650.50%1,57949.04%153,22046.09%1.46%
Venango 2,02048.08%2,08749.68%944,20137.90%-1.59%
Warren 1,83651.66%1,66546.85%533,55433.49%4.81%
Washington 15,87257.43%11,26240.75%50527,63941.38%16.68%
Wayne 1,85947.44%2,02651.70%343,91939.12%-4.26%
Westmoreland 25,00954.31%20,28644.05%75446,04939.24%10.26%
Wyoming 1,12348.21%1,16850.42%332,39845.72%-2.21%
York 18,45950.72%17,54448.21%39036,39336.74%2.51%
Total935,10755.61%731,88143.53%14,4391,681,42741.39%12.09%

Analysis

Clinton won a large victory over runner-up Bernie Sanders in Pennsylvania, replicating her 2008 performance against Barack Obama in Pennsylvania. According to exit polls, Clinton won the white vote 51–47 (68% of the electorate), won the African American vote 70–30 (19% of the electorate), and won among women 60-39 (she lost men 50-49 to Sanders). While Sanders won among younger voters 63-37, Clinton won voters over the age of 45 66-33. Clinton swept all income and educational attainment levels except for whites without college degrees, whom Sanders won 50–49.

Clinton swept all political ideologies in the primary. She won Democrats 62-38 but lost self-identified Independents to Sanders 72–26.

Clinton also won among unions 56-43, a very important demographic in a big manufacturing state like Pennsylvania.

Clinton won large victories in all of Pennsylvania's major cities: she won in Philadelphia 63-37, the affluent Philadelphia suburbs 58-42, and also carried the cities of Pittsburgh and Erie. She won in Northeastern Pennsylvania 51-48, and in Western Pennsylvania 54-45. Sanders, for his part, did better in the rural parts of the state, winning rural voters 50–48 and carrying Central Pennsylvania 50-49. [23] Sanders swept many of the more remote and conservative counties of the state, including parts of Amish country such as Lancaster County.

Of her victory in Pennsylvania, New York Times analyst Alan Rappeport commented, "Lots of Philadelphia history and imagery coming from Clinton now. It's almost as if she has her convention speech ready." [24]

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References

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  14. "PENNSYLVANIA STATEWIDE POLL REPUBLICAN AND DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES".
  15. "Franklin & Marshall February 13–21, 2016" (PDF).
  16. "2016 Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary – Clinton 48%, Sanders 41% (Robert Morris University 2/11-2/16)".
  17. Field, Nick. "Harper Poll: Clinton 55% Sanders 28%". Politics PA. Retrieved February 5, 2016.
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