2006 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election

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2006 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election
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  Ed Rendell ID2004 crop (cropped).JPG Lynn Swann official photo (cropped).jpg
Nominee Ed Rendell Lynn Swann
Party Democratic Republican
Running mate Catherine Baker Knoll Jim Matthews
Popular vote2,470,5171,622,135
Percentage60.4%39.6%
2006 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
2006 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election results map by congressional district.svg
PA 2006 Governor Election By Precinct.svg
Rendell:      50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Swann:      50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:      50%
     No data
Governor before election

Ed Rendell
Democratic

Elected Governor

Ed Rendell
Democratic

The 2006 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election was held on November 7, 2006 and included the races for the Governor of Pennsylvania and Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania. Incumbent Democratic Governor Ed Rendell successfully ran for re-election. Pennsylvania's first female lieutenant governor, Catherine Baker Knoll, was also running for re-election.

Contents

As of 2023, this is the most recent gubernatorial election in which the Democratic candidate has carried the following counties- Clearfield, Columbia, Elk, Mercer, Pike, Susquehanna, Warren, Washington, Wayne and Wyoming. This is the last time any statewide race in Pennsylvania resulted in a candidate getting over 60% of the vote.

Background

Rendell and Knoll had the advantage of incumbency, important in the swing state of Pennsylvania. Rendell's approval rating as of May 2006 was 62%. [1]

In the 2000 Presidential election, then Vice President Al Gore won the state 50.6%-46.4% over then Texas Governor George W. Bush. In 2004, Senator John Kerry carried the state 50.9%-48.4% over incumbent President Bush.

Although the state had voted Democratic in eight of the past 12 presidential elections, its Congressional delegation had been majority Republican for years. The counties of Philadelphia and Allegheny were the Democratic strongholds, while the central part of the state was where the Republican Party fared best. The 2005 statewide party registration had Democrats out-numbering Republicans in the state with 3,841,429 to 3,292,656, with 939,252 registered independent voters. [2]

Democratic primary

Michael Morrill, the Green Party's nominee for governor in 2002, considered challenging Rendell on a progressive liberal platform. On February 13, 2006, Morrill however stated that he would not run, citing the toll his 2002 race took on his family. [3] [4] Rendell thus ran unopposed.

Results

Democratic primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Ed Rendell (incumbent) Unopposed
Total votes654,985 100.00

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Campaign

Lynn Swann, Jeff Piccola, Jim Panyard and Bill Scranton III all announced their intention to run in the Republican primary for governor in 2006. Scranton, who served two terms as lieutenant governor of Pennsylvania, was the son of popular former Governor William Scranton, and a member of the wealthy Scranton family was the early front-runner. However, a series of blunders by his campaign, [6] and a lack of momentum from the Piccola and Panyard campaigns moved Swann into presumptive nominee status. [7] The state Republican party then endorsed Swann, leading the three other candidates to drop out ahead of the March deadline to file for the primary.

Results

Republican primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Lynn Swann Unopposed
Total votes583,658 100.00

General Election

Candidates

Withdrew

Failed to submit signatures

  • Hagan Smith, building contractor and chair of Butler County Constitution Party (Constitution) [11]
  • Russ Diamond, 2005 General Assembly pay raise whistleblower (Independent) [12]
    • Running mate: Tom Lingenfelter, former Republican state committeeman and perennial candidate

Four candidates were campaigning for governor, [13] but only two went on to appear on the ballot in November. Constitution candidate Hagan Smith and Independent candidate Russ Diamond were unable to secure the necessary signatures to appear on the ballot. On August 11, Green Party candidate Marakay Rogers withdrew her nominating papers, following a challenge by Pennsylvania Democrats, who alleged more than 69,000 signatures on the petitions were fake names, unregistered voters or illegible. [14] The challenge followed a Republican drive to collect signatures to put Green candidate Carl Romanelli on the ballot in the Senate race. [15]

Rogers continued to campaign, hopeful that a federal appeals court would rule favorably in a lawsuit seeking to overturn the state's signature requirement for third party candidates. [16]

Analysis

Former Steeler Lynn Swann courts voters tailgating before a football game between Pennsylvania's two football teams, the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Philadelphia Eagles. Swann In Philly 08.25.2006.jpg
Former Steeler Lynn Swann courts voters tailgating before a football game between Pennsylvania's two football teams, the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Philadelphia Eagles.

In July 2005, a Zogby Poll showed Rendell with only a 47% to 41% lead over Lynn Swann. Some speculated that controversy over Act 72, proposed Medicaid cuts, and possibly even a legislative pay increase that was signed into law had reduced the Governor's popularity.[ citation needed ] Rendell led in other recent polls by significantly higher margins. Following that poll, Rendell's supporters pointed out that he has raised more money than his opponents[ citation needed ], which they felt would help him spread his message[ citation needed ]. They also pointed out that as a sitting governor, Rendell had all of the traditional advantages of an incumbent. [18] [19]

Swann hoped to perform strongly in the conservative "T" section of the state (the central and northern regions) and in his native western Pennsylvania area[ citation needed ]. Swann canvassed for votes among tailgating voters in Philadelphia before the Steelers game against the Eagles. [17] On February 7, Swann served as master of ceremonies for the Pittsburgh Steelers's Super Bowl XL victory parade before 250,000 people. [20] Polls in early February showed Swann and Rendell in a statistical tie. [21] However, Swann's momentum did not survive an effective barrage of advertising from Rendell in early spring and had trouble keeping up with Rendell's effective fundraising. [22] Swann's focus on reform never caught traction, possibly as a result of his vocal support for Chip Brightbill and Robert Jubelirer, two legislative leaders who were defeated in the May 2006 primary election. [23]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [24] Solid DNovember 6, 2006
Sabato's Crystal Ball [25] Likely DNovember 6, 2006
Rothenberg Political Report [26] Safe DNovember 2, 2006
Real Clear Politics [27] Likely DNovember 6, 2006

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s) administeredEd
Rendell (D)		Lynn
Swann (R)
Temple/Inquirer Poll September 24, 200660%33%
Rasmussen September 22, 200656%36%
Zogby/WSJ September 11, 200651.6%42.1%
Zogby/WSJ August 28, 200648.4%43.5%
Rasmussen August 25, 200650%38%
Strategic Vision August 17, 200651%41%
Quinnipiac August 16, 200657%38%
Rasmussen July 26, 200650%40%
Zogby/WSJ July 24, 200647.5%41.1%
Strategic Vision July 20, 200649%36%
Rasmussen June 26, 200650%36%
Quinnipiac June 22, 200655%31%
Zogby/WSJ June 21, 200647.7%43.4%
Strategic Vision June 15, 200649%38%
Rasmussen May 25, 200652%34%
Quinnipiac May 12, 200655%33%
Strategic Vision May 10, 200649%41%
Keystone Poll May 3, 200649%35%
Rasmussen April 29, 200641%44%
IssuesPA/Pew Poll April 17–26, 200630%29%
Muhlenberg April 17–24, 200645%39%
Strategic Vision April 13, 200644%42%
Quinnipiac April 5, 200647%37%
IssuesPA/Pew Poll March 30, 200629%35%
Rasmussen March 28, 200644%41%
Strategic Vision March 15, 200644%44%
Muhlenberg [ permanent dead link ]March 4, 200646%43%
Rasmussen February 21, 200646%43%
Quinnipiac February 15, 200648%36%
Keystone Poll February 9, 200645%42%
Strategic Vision January 25, 200644%46%
Rasmussen January 19, 200643%45%
Strategic Vision December 21, 200545%41%
Quinnipiac December 13, 200548%35%
Strategic Vision November 16, 200545%42%
Rasmussen November 7, 200550%36%
Strategic Vision October 19, 200546%41%
Keystone Poll September 200553%33%
Strategic Vision September 12, 200548%43%
Strategic Vision August 2, 200547%41%
RasmussenJuly 20, 200547%41%
Keystone Poll June 200542%32%
Keystone Poll March 200559%29%

Results

Pennsylvania gubernatorial election, 2006 [28] [29]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Ed Rendell (incumbent) 2,470,517 60.33
Republican Lynn Swann 1,622,13539.61
Write-in 2,6700.06
Total votes4,095,322 100.00
Turnout  50.05
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

See also

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References

  1. ↑ Survey USA
  2. ↑ 2005 Municipal Election
  3. ↑ "Morrill Majority". Archived from the original on May 10, 2017. Retrieved June 10, 2021.
  4. ↑ Morrill release Archived 2006-03-22 at the Wayback Machine
  5. 1 2 3 4 5 6 "GOP Shortlist for Governor". PoliticsPA . The Publius Group. 2002. Archived from the original on November 8, 2002.
  6. ↑ "Inquirer.com: Philadelphia local news, sports, jobs, cars, homes".
  7. ↑ "Lynn Swann Goes Deep".
  8. ↑ Ed Rendell's Campaign Website
  9. ↑ Lynn Swann's Campaign Website
  10. ↑ Green Party
  11. ↑ Hagan For Governor site Archived 2006-01-29 at the Wayback Machine
  12. ↑ "Russ Diamond's Campaign Website". Archived from the original on July 15, 2016. Retrieved December 1, 2018.
  13. ↑ Politics1: Pennsylvania
  14. ↑ "Green Party candidates give up". Los Angeles Daily News . Archived from the original on September 26, 2011. Retrieved August 15, 2006.
  15. ↑ Green Party candidate withdraws [ permanent dead link ]
  16. ↑ Minor parties sue Archived 2007-09-30 at the Wayback Machine
  17. 1 2 Ritter, Kara (August 2006). "Ex-Steeler looks to sway support of Eagles' fans". The Philadelphia Inquirer .
  18. ↑ Madonna analysis Archived 2005-12-14 at the Wayback Machine
  19. ↑ Franklin & Marshall College (Terry Madonna) Center for Politics & Public Affairs Archived 2005-12-18 at the Wayback Machine
  20. ↑ A quarter-million thanks Archived 2012-09-06 at archive.today Pittsburgh Tribune-Review
  21. ↑ Rendell, Swann in dead heat Archived 2008-04-08 at the Wayback Machine Pittsburgh Tribune-Review
  22. ↑ Barnes, Tom; Roddy, Dennis B. (November 8, 2006). "Rendell cruises to 2nd term as governor". Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
  23. ↑ Deparle, Jason (May 18, 2006). "G.O.P. Conservatives Topple Veteran State Lawmakers in Pennsylvania". The New York Times. Retrieved May 22, 2010.
  24. ↑ "2006 Governor Race Ratings for November 6, 2006" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Archived from the original (PDF) on June 5, 2008. Retrieved October 1, 2006.
  25. ↑ "Election Eve 2006: THE FINAL PREDICTIONS". Sabato's Crystal Ball. November 6, 2006. Retrieved June 25, 2021.
  26. ↑ "2006 Gubernatorial Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved June 25, 2021.
  27. ↑ "Election 2006". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved June 25, 2021.
  28. ↑ The Pennsylvania Manual, p. 7-18.
  29. ↑ The Pennsylvania Manual, p. 7-84.
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