2016 South Carolina Democratic presidential primary

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2016 South Carolina Democratic presidential primary
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←  2008 February 27, 2016 (2016-02-27) 2020  →
  Hillary Clinton by Gage Skidmore 2.jpg Bernie Sanders September 2015 cropped.jpg
Candidate Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders
Home state New York Vermont
Delegate count3914
Popular vote272,37996,498
Percentage73.44%26.02%
2016 South Carolina Democratic primary results by county.svg
County results
Clinton:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%

The 2016 South Carolina Democratic presidential primary took place on February 27 in the U.S. state of South Carolina, marking the Democratic Party's fourth nominating contest in their series of presidential primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

Contents

Clinton won the South Carolina Democratic primary by a landslide margin of more than 47%, receiving a larger percentage of the African American vote than Obama, the first black President, did in 2008. [1]

With the Republican Party having already held its South Carolina primary a week earlier on February 20, the Democratic primary in South Carolina was the only presidential primary on that day.

Debates and forums

November 2015 forum in Rock Hill

Rachel Maddow was selected to moderate the First in the South Candidates Forum with Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, and Martin O'Malley, which was held at Winthrop University in Rock Hill, South Carolina, on November 6, co-sponsored by the Democratic Parties of 13 southern states. [2] The forum was not in debate format; instead, each candidate was interviewed individually and sequentially. [3] Lincoln Chafee and Jim Webb were also invited, but their campaigns never responded to the invitations, [4] and both have since withdrawn from the race. A Public Policy Poll of South Carolina Democratic voters conducted from November 7–8, after the forum, discovered that 67% of viewers thought Clinton won the forum, 16% thought Sanders won, and 6% thought O'Malley won, with 11% unsure. [5]

January 2016 debate in Charleston, South Carolina

On January 17, 2016, the Democratic Party held a fourth debate at the Gaillard Center in Charleston, South Carolina. Hosted by Lester Holt and Andrea Mitchell, the debate aired on NBC News and was streamed on YouTube. It was also sponsored by the Congressional Black Caucus. It was notable as being the final debate before the start of precinct caucuses and primary voting. Participants were Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, and Martin O'Malley. It was the final debate appearance of O'Malley, who suspended his campaign on February 1.

Both before and after the debate, commentators said the debate was focused on Sanders and his voting record on gun control and slights against President Obama, among other issues. During the debate, O'Malley interrupted to take 30 seconds to talk about "homeland security and preparedness". [6] Also during the debate, Clinton and Sanders had some back-and-forth exchanges to define themselves on Wall Street, foreign policy, and gun control. [6]

Opinion polling

Delegate count: 53 Pledged, 6 Unpledged

Winner: America Symbol.svg Hillary Clinton
Primary date: 27 February 2016

Poll sourceDate1st2nd3rdOther
Official Primary results [7] February 27, 2016Hillary Clinton
73.4%		Bernie Sanders
26.0%		Others
0.6%
Clemson [8]

Margin of error: 3.0%
Sample size: 650

February 20–25, 2016Hillary Clinton
64%		Bernie Sanders
14%		Others / Undecided
22%
Emerson College [9]

Margin of error: 6.0%
Sample size: 266

February 22–24, 2016Hillary Clinton
60%		Bernie Sanders
37%		Others / Undecided
3%
NBC/WSJ/Marist [10]

Margin of error: 4.8%
Sample size: 425

February 15–17, 2016Hillary Clinton
60%		Bernie Sanders
32%		Other
8%
Bloomberg Politics [11]

Margin of error: 4.9%
Sample size: 403

February 13–17,
2016		Hillary Clinton
53%		Bernie Sanders
31%		Not sure
16%
ARG [12]

Margin of error: 5%
Sample size: 400

February 14–16, 2016Hillary Clinton
61%		Bernie Sanders
31%		Someone else 1%No opinion 7%
Public Policy Polling [13]

Margin of error: ± 4%
Sample size: 525

February 14–15, 2016Hillary Clinton
55%		Bernie Sanders
34%		Undecided 12%
CNN/ORC [14]

Margin of error: 6%
Sample size: 289

February 10–15, 2016Hillary Clinton
56%		Bernie Sanders
38%		Someone else 3%No opinion 4%
ARG [15]

Margin of error: ± 5.0%
Sample size: 400

February 12–13, 2016Hillary Clinton
65%		Bernie Sanders
27%		Other 1%, Undecided 7%
YouGov/CBS News [16]

Margin of error: ± 8.7%
Sample size: 404

February 10–12, 2016Hillary Clinton
59%		Bernie Sanders
40%		No Preference 1%
NBC/WSJ/Marist [17]

Margin of error: ± 4.6%
Sample size: 446

January 17–23, 2016Hillary Clinton
64%		Bernie Sanders
27%		Martin O'Malley
2%		Undecided 7%
YouGov/CBS News [18]

Margin of error: ± 9.4%
Sample size: 388

January 17–21, 2016Hillary Clinton
60%		Bernie Sanders
38%		Martin O'Malley
0%		Undecided 2%
SC New Democrats [19]

Margin of error: ± ?%
Sample size: 583

January 12–15, 2016Hillary Clinton
47%		Bernie Sanders
28%		Martin O'Malley
2%		Undecided 22%
Polls in 2015
Poll sourceDate1st2nd3rdOther
YouGov/CBS News [20]

Margin of error: ± 5.0%
Sample size: 420

December 13–17, 2015Hillary Clinton
67%		Bernie Sanders
31%		Martin O'Malley
2%		No Preference 0%
Fox News [21]

Margin of error: ± 5.0%
Sample size: 364

December 5–8, 2015Hillary Clinton
65%		Bernie Sanders
21%		Martin O'Malley
3%		Other 1%, None of the Above 7%, DK 3%
YouGov/CBS News [22]

Margin of error: ± 6.0%
Sample size: 420

November 15–19, 2015Hillary Clinton
72%		Bernie Sanders
25%		Martin O'Malley
2%		Undecided 1%
Public Policy Polling [23]

Margin of error: ± 4.9%
Sample size: 400

November 7–8, 2015Hillary Clinton
72%		Bernie Sanders
18%		Martin O'Malley
5%		Unsure 5%
Monmouth University [24]

Margin of error: ± 4.9%
Sample size: 400

November 5–8, 2015Hillary Clinton
69%		Bernie Sanders
21%		Martin O'Malley
1%		Other 1% No Preference 8%
Winthrop University [25]

Margin of error: ± 3.4%
Sample size: 832

October 24 – November 1, 2015Hillary Clinton
71%		Bernie Sanders
15%		Martin O'Malley
2%		Refused 2% Undecided 9% Wouldn't Vote 1%
YouGov/CBS News [26]

Margin of error: ± 8.2%
Sample size: 427

October 15–22, 2015Hillary Clinton
68%		Bernie Sanders
25%		Martin O'Malley
1%		Jim Webb 1%, Lincoln Chafee 0%, Lawrence Lessig 0%, No preference 4%
Clemson Palmetto [27]

Margin of error: 4.0%
Sample size: 600

October 13–23, 2015Hillary Clinton
43%		Bernie Sanders
6%		Martin O'Malley
1%		Undecided 50%
CNN/ORC [28]

Margin of error: 5.5%
Sample size: 301

October 3–10, 2015Hillary Clinton
49%		Joe Biden
24%		Bernie Sanders
18%		Martin O'Malley 3%, Someone else 1%, None/No one 1%, No opinion 4%
Gravis Marketing [29]

Margin of error: ± ?%
Sample size: ?

September 25–27, 2015Hillary Clinton
50%		Joe Biden
19%		Bernie Sanders
13%		Lincoln Chafee 1%, Jim Webb <1%, Martin O'Malley <1%, Unsure 17%
YouGov/CBS News [30]

Margin of error: ± 6.8%
Sample size: 528

Sep. 3–10, 2015Hillary Clinton
46%		Bernie Sanders
23%		Joe Biden
22%		No preference 8%, Jim Webb 1%, Lincoln Chafee 0%, Martin O'Malley 0%
Public Policy Polling [31]

Margin of error: ± 5.6%
Sample size: 302

Sep. 3–6, 2015Hillary Clinton
54%		Joe Biden
24%		Bernie Sanders
9%		Martin O’Malley, Jim Webb 2%; Lincoln Chafee 1%
Gravis Marketing [32]

Margin of error: ± 4.0%
Sample size: 209

July 29–30, 2015Hillary Clinton
78%		Bernie Sanders
8%		Elizabeth Warren
6%		Joe Biden 6%, Jim Webb 1%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Lincoln Chafee 1%
Morning Consult [33]

Margin of error: ?
Sample size: 309

May 31 – June 8, 2015Hillary Clinton
56%		Joe Biden
15%		Bernie Sanders
10%		Martin O'Malley 3%, Jim Webb 2%, Lincoln Chafee 1%, Someone else 2% Undecided 11%
Public Policy Polling [34]

Margin of error: ± 6.2%
Sample size: 252

February 12–15, 2015Hillary Clinton
59%		Joe Biden
18%		Elizabeth Warren
10%		Martin O'Malley 3%, Bernie Sanders 1%, Jim Webb 1%, Other/Undecided 8%
NBC News/Marist [35]

Margin of error: ± 5.2%
Sample size: 352

February 3–10, 2015Hillary Clinton
65%		Joe Biden
20%		Bernie Sanders
3%		Martin O'Malley 2%, Jim Webb 2%, Undecided 8%
Polls in 2014
Poll sourceDate1st2nd3rdOther
Clemson University [36]

Margin of error: ±6%
Sample size: 400

May 26 – June 2, 2014Hillary Clinton
50%		Joe Biden
12%		Andrew Cuomo
2%		Martin O'Malley 1%, Deval Patrick 0%, Brian Schweitzer 0%, Undecided/Don't know 35%

Results

South Carolina Democratic primary, February 27, 2016
CandidatePopular voteEstimated delegates
CountPercentagePledgedUnpledgedTotal
Hillary Clinton 272,37973.44%39544
Bernie Sanders 96,49826.02%14014
Willie Wilson 1,3140.35%
Martin O'Malley (withdrawn)7130.19%
Uncommitted011
Total votes370,904100%53659
Sources: [37] [38]

Results by county

Clinton won every county. [39]

CountyClinton %Sanders %OthersTotal votes castTurnout as % of total registered electorsMargin as % of votes cast in primary
Abbeville 1,50881.91%31216.95%211,84112.45%64.96%
Aiken 6,88970.17%2,87729.31%519,8839.41%40.87%
Allendale 1,02290.84%958.44%81,13719.43%82.40%
Anderson 5,57666.79%2,71232.48%618,4017.54%34.30%
Bamberg 1,71089.20%19710.28%101,92820.08%78.93%
Barnwell 1,56187.45%20911.71%151,80013.50%75.74%
Beaufort 9,97073.30%3,57526.28%5613,66413.21%47.02%
Berkeley 9,48571.96%3,59227.25%10413,26412.04%44.71%
Calhoun 1,53686.05%24113.50%81,80917.31%72.55%
Charleston 26,62565.97%13,52733.47%22840,50815.34%32.50%
Cherokee 1,87777.95%51421.35%172,4277.91%56.60%
Chester 1,96279.63%49219.97%102,47712.23%59.66%
Chesterfield 2,20982.80%44616.72%132,69610.71%66.08%
Clarendon 3,57190.87%3378.58%223,97617.17%82.29%
Colleton 2,93981.86%58416.40%373,59214.89%66.15%
Darlington 4,99081.86%1,08117.73%256,14814.49%64.12%
Dillon 1,65984.00%30215.29%141,99310.33%68.71%
Dorchester 6,93470.21%2,88529.21%579,92910.54%41.00%
Edgefield 1,47481.80%30116.70%271,82211.46%65.09%
Fairfield 3,26587.46%44011.76%283,75424.35%75.68%
Florence 9,43378.00%2,59421.45%6712,19614.53%55.55%
Georgetown 4,94177.82%1,35021.26%586,40215.69%56.56%
Greenville 19,96663.95%11,11835.61%13831,39810.56%28.34%
Greenwood 3,62377.46%98721.10%674,71011.82%56.36%
Hampton 1,93387.98%24110.97%232,20217.27%77.01%
Horry 11,31667.25%5,45732.43%5416,9168.95%34.82%
Jasper 2,19585.08%35513.76%302,59415.48%71.32%
Kershaw 3,76177.10%1,09322.41%244,91412.32%54.69%
Lancaster 3,34672.96%1,22126.62%194,6158.98%46.34%
Laurens 2,97878.53%80121.12%133,83110.25%57.41%
Lee 2,20987.66%28811.43%232,54821.40%76.23%
Lexington 8,84760.93%5,61138.65%6114,5728.69%22.29%
Marion 3,36185.37%55214.05%233,97818.42%71.32%
Marlboro 2,13788.97%25310.53%122,41213.60%78.43%
McCormick 97385.05%16214.16%91,16117.18%70.89%
Newberry 2,12180.92%47117.97%292,64111.77%62.95%
Oconee 1,96059.61%1,30439.66%243,3056.93%19.95%
Orangeburg 11,87288.64%1,47311.00%4913,51523.74%77.64%
Pickens 2,50355.43%1,99544.18%184,5286.90%11.25%
Richland 39,33275.75%12,35423.79%23852,13621.73%51.96%
Saluda 1,02383.72%19215.71%71,23710.97%68.00%
Spartanburg 10,67470.27%4,46729.41%491,2379.17%40.86%
Sumter 9,83086.61%1,44312.71%7715,23917.42%73.89%
Union 1,69083.37%33216.38%511,43211.99%67.00%
Williamsburg 4,61388.52%55710.69%415,27223.90%77.84%
York 8,89063.40%5,12736.20%5714,2169.26%27.20%
Total272,37973.44%96,49826.02%2,027373,06312.60%47.42%

Delegates [40]

Analysis

As South Carolina's majority-black Democratic electorate had dealt a severe death-blow to Clinton's 2008 presidential effort against Barack Obama, it gave her campaign new life in 2016. Clinton won the primary in a 47-point routing thanks to ardent support from African American voters. According to exit polls, Clinton won the black vote 86–14, which comprised 61% of the Democratic electorate in South Carolina; she won among black women 89-11 who comprised 37% of the electorate. Clinton's near-unanimous support from black voters was fueled by their interest in a continuation of President Obama's policies, [41] and by black women who wanted to see a woman elected. [42]

Clinton won every county statewide. She won in upcountry 66–34, Piedmont 74–25, Central South Carolina, including the region which is majority African American 78–22, Pee dee/Waccamaw 83–17, and lowcountry 70–30. [43] She also swept the major cities of Charleston, Columbia, Greenville, and Rock Hill.

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References

  1. ↑ "Black Voters Boost Clinton in South Carolina". ABC News. February 28, 2016. Retrieved May 20, 2016.
  2. ↑ "MSNBC's Rachel Maddow to moderate 2016 Democratic forum at Winthrop". The State. October 7, 2015.
  3. ↑ "MSNBC's Rachel Maddow will bring Southern focus to forum". Charlotte Observer. November 4, 2015.
  4. ↑ "S.C. Democrats to host three presidential candidates in Rock Hill". Greenvilleonline.com. October 7, 2015. Retrieved January 17, 2016.
  5. ↑ "Three Republican candidates speak at anti-gay pastor's rally". MSNBC. Retrieved November 23, 2015.
  6. 1 2 Fix, Team (January 17, 2016). "The 4th Democratic debate transcript, annotated: Who said what and what it meant". The Washington Post. ISSN   0190-8286 . Retrieved January 18, 2016.
  7. ↑ Official Primary Results
  8. ↑ "Clemson University Palmetto Poll Democratic primary summary" . Retrieved February 26, 2016.
  9. ↑ "EMERSON POLL: CLINTON LEADS SANDERS BY A WIDE MARGIN IN SOUTH CAROLINA, WITH STRONG SUPPORT FROM AFRICAN AMERICANS" (PDF). Retrieved February 26, 2016.
  10. ↑ "Donald Trump's Lead Slashed in South Carolina: Poll" . Retrieved February 19, 2016.
  11. ↑ "Clinton Strong in South Carolina But Warning Signs Ahead, Bloomberg Poll Shows" . Retrieved February 18, 2016.
  12. ↑ "South Carolina primary: ARG Poll" . Retrieved February 17, 2016.
  13. ↑ http://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/politics-columns-blogs/the-buzz/article60547281.html
  14. ↑ "South Carolina primary: CNN/ORC poll full results" . Retrieved February 16, 2016.
  15. ↑ http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/arg-23748
  16. ↑ "CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker South Carolina" (PDF). CBS News. February 14, 2016. Retrieved February 14, 2016.
  17. ↑ "NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll January 2016 South Carolina Questionnaire" (PDF). Retrieved February 5, 2016.
  18. ↑ "CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker South Carolina" (PDF). CBS News. January 24, 2016. Retrieved January 24, 2016.
  19. ↑ SC New Democrats
  20. ↑ "CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker South Carolina" (PDF).
  21. ↑ Fox News
  22. ↑ "CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker Iowa" (PDF).
  23. ↑ "Trump Still Leads But Declining in SC; Clinton Dominant" (PDF). Public Policy Polling. November 10, 2015. Retrieved January 22, 2016.
  24. ↑ "South Carolina: Clinton with Big Lead" (PDF). Monmouth University Poll. November 10, 2015. Retrieved January 22, 2015.
  25. ↑ "Winthrop University: Winthrop Poll – Current Findings". winthrop.edu.
  26. ↑ "PDF file" (PDF). Retrieved October 12, 2015.
  27. ↑ "SC Poll" . Retrieved November 5, 2015.
  28. ↑ "CNN SC poll" . Retrieved November 5, 2015.
  29. ↑ "The Buzz" . Retrieved October 1, 2015.
  30. ↑ Will Jordan. "Sanders up big in New Hampshire and Iowa; Carson trails Trump". YouGov.
  31. ↑ "The Buzz" . Retrieved September 9, 2015.
  32. ↑ "SC polling" (PDF). Retrieved August 4, 2015.
  33. ↑ "Morning Consult SC" (PDF). morningconsult.com. Retrieved July 9, 2015.
  34. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  35. ↑ NBC News/Marist
  36. ↑ Clemson University
  37. ↑ The Green Papers
  38. ↑ South Carolina State Election Commission
  39. ↑ "South Carolina Election Results 2016: President Live Map by County, Real-Time Voting Updates - POLITICO".
  40. ↑ The South Carolina Democratic Party - State Election Results Archived October 26, 2017, at the Wayback Machine
  41. ↑ Chozick, Amy; Healy, Patrick (February 27, 2016). "Hillary Clinton Wins South Carolina Primary". The New York Times. ISSN   0362-4331 . Retrieved October 18, 2016.
  42. ↑ Hannah-jones, Nikole (February 26, 2016). "For Black Women in South Carolina, It's Clinton's Turn". The New York Times. ISSN   0362-4331 . Retrieved October 18, 2016.
  43. ↑ "2016 Election Center". CNN. Retrieved October 18, 2016.
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