Next German federal election

Next German federal election

←  2021 On or before 26 October 2025

All 630 seats in the Bundestag 316 seats needed for a majority

Party Leader Current seats SPD Olaf Scholz [lower-alpha 1] 207 CDU/CSU Friedrich Merz 197 Greens Ricarda Lang Omid Nouripour 118 FDP Christian Lindner 91 AfD Alice Weidel Tino Chrupalla 78 Left Janine Wissler Martin Schirdewan 28 BSW Sahra Wagenknecht Amira Mohamed Ali 10 Ungrouped N/A 6 Bundestag constituencies Incumbent Government Scholz cabinet SPD–Greens–FDP

The next German federal election will be held on or before 26 October 2025 to elect the members of the 21st Bundestag.

Date

The Basic Law and the Federal Election Act provide that federal elections must be held on a Sunday or on a national holiday ^{[lower-alpha 2]} no earlier than 46 and no later than 48 months after the first sitting of a Bundestag, unless the Bundestag is dissolved earlier. The 20th and sitting Bundestag held its first sitting on 26 October 2021. ^[1] Therefore, the next election has to take place on one of the following possible dates:

• 31 August 2025 (Sunday)
• 7 September 2025 (Sunday)
• 14 September 2025 (Sunday)
• 21 September 2025 (Sunday)
• 28 September 2025 (Sunday)
• 3 October 2025 (German Unity Day)
• 5 October 2025 (Sunday)
• 12 October 2025 (Sunday)
• 19 October 2025 (Sunday)
• 26 October 2025 (Sunday)

The exact date will be determined by the president of Germany in due course. ^[2] Federal elections can be held earlier if the president of Germany dissolves the Bundestag and schedules a snap election. They may only do so under two possible scenarios described by the Basic Law.

1. If the Bundestag fails to elect a chancellor with an absolute majority of its members on the 15th day after the first ballot of a chancellor's election, the president is free to either appoint the candidate who received a plurality of votes as chancellor or to dissolve the Bundestag (in accordance with Article 63, Section 4 of the Basic Law).
2. If the chancellor loses a confidence motion, they may ask the president to dissolve the Bundestag. The president is free to grant or to deny the chancellor's request (in accordance with Article 68 of the Basic Law).

In both cases, federal elections would have to take place on a Sunday or national holiday no later than 60 days after the dissolution. ^{[3] [4] [lower-alpha 3]} Under both scenarios, a snap election is not possible during a state of defence. Federal elections can also be held later, if a state of defence is declared. If a state of defence prohibits a scheduled federal election and prolongs a legislative period, new elections have to take place no later than six months after the end of the state of defence.

Changes to electoral system

After the 2021 German federal election produced a Bundestag with 736 members – which made it the largest freely elected parliament in the world – renewed debate began over the system of awarding overhang and leveling seats in place since the 2013 election. The Scholz cabinet passed a reform law in March 2023 to fix the size of future Bundestags at 630 members. This is achieved by eliminating all overhang and leveling seats, as well as the constituency seat rule (Grundmandatsklausel) which awards full proportional representation to parties winning at least three constituency seats, even if they do not meet the five-percent threshold. Under the new legislation, a party's total number of seats will be determined solely by its share of party-list votes (Zweitstimmen). If a party wins more constituency seats in a state than it is proportionally entitled to in that state, it will only be awarded the amount of constituency seats it is proportionally entitled to; a number of its constituency winners would be excluded from the Bundestag, in order of those that received the smallest vote shares. Parties representing minority groups are still exempt from the five-percent threshold.

The law is subject to constitutional challenges; the CSU and The Left, both of whom benefitted from the previous system at the 2021 election, appealed to President Frank-Walter Steinmeier to refuse to sign it, though he did so after personally determining he believed it was constitutional. ^{[5] [6]} Immediately after the law was promulgated in the Federal Law Journal on 13 June, both party organizations, as well as the government of Bavaria controlled by the CSU, filed formal complaints to the Federal Constitutional Court. ^{[7] [8]}

Political parties and leaders

See also: List of political parties in Germany

The table below lists the parties represented in the 20th Bundestag.

Parties				Leader(s)	Leading candidate(s)	Ideology	Seats		Status
							Last election	Before election
	Social Democratic Party of Germany Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands			Saskia Esken Lars Klingbeil	Olaf Scholz	Social democracy	206 / 736	207 / 735	Governing coalition
	Christian Democratic Union of Germany Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands			Friedrich Merz	—	Christian democracy	197 / 736	197 / 735	Opposition
	Christian Social Union in Bavaria Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern			Markus Söder
	Alliance 90/The Greens Bündnis 90/Die Grünen			Ricarda Lang Omid Nouripour	—	Green politics	118 / 736	118 / 735	Governing coalition
	Free Democratic Party Freie Demokratische Partei			Christian Lindner	—	Classical liberalism	92 / 736	91 / 735
	Alternative for Germany Alternative für Deutschland			Alice Weidel Tino Chrupalla	—	Right-wing populism	83 / 736	78 / 735	Opposition
	The Left Die Linke			Janine Wissler Martin Schirdewan	—	Democratic socialism	39 / 736	28 / 735
	Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht			Sahra Wagenknecht Amira Mohamed Ali	—	Left-wing populism	0 / 736	10 / 735
	Ungrouped		SSW	Christian Dirschauer	—	Minority rights	1 / 736	1 / 735
			AfD	—	—	—	0 / 736	1 / 735
			Independent	—	—	—	0 / 736	4 / 735

Opinion polls

Main article: Opinion polling for the next German federal election

Local regression of polls conducted

Notes

1. Scholz is the incumbent chancellor of Germany. The SPD's co-leaders are Saskia Esken and Lars Klingbeil.
2. In Germany, with the exception of the German Unity Day, all holidays are determined on the state level, and because of that, they do not necessarily apply for all German states. Currently, legal holidays in all states are New Year's Day, Good Friday, Easter Monday, Labour Day, Ascension Day, Whit Monday, German Unity Day, First Christmas Day, and Second Christmas Day (Boxing Day).
3. Possibility 1 has never yet happened since 1949; possibility 2 has been used a total of three times (in 1972, 1982, and 2005).

References

1. "Nach der Bundestagswahl: Wie geht es jetzt weiter?" [After the general election: what's next]. RND (in German). 26 September 2021. Archived from the original on 27 September 2021. Retrieved 30 September 2021.
2. "§ 16 BWahlG – Einzelnorm". gesetze-im-internet.de. Archived from the original on 17 November 2020. Retrieved 24 April 2019.
3. "Wahl zum 19. Deutschen Bundestag am 24. September 2017". Der Bundeswahlleiter. Archived from the original on 8 November 2020. Retrieved 26 September 2017.
4. Martin Fehndrich (26 February 2017). "Bundeskanzlerwahl". Wahlrecht.de. Archived from the original on 8 May 2022. Retrieved 26 September 2017.
5. "Steinmeier unterzeichnet Gesetz zur Wahlrechtsreform". Süddeutsche Zeitung (in German). 8 June 2023. Archived from the original on 8 June 2023. Retrieved 8 June 2023.
6. Kornmeier, Claudia (17 March 2023). "Was das neue Wahlrecht vorsieht". tagesschau.de (in German). Archived from the original on 8 June 2023. Retrieved 8 June 2023.
7. "Wahlrechtsreform: CSU und Freistaat Bayern klagen beim Bundesverfassungsgericht". Der Spiegel (in German). 14 June 2023. Archived from the original on 6 September 2023. Retrieved 6 September 2023.
8. Lehmann, Anna (16 June 2023). "Verkleinerung des Bundestages: Linke klagt gegen Wahlrechtsreform". Die Tageszeitung (in German). Archived from the original on 6 September 2023. Retrieved 6 September 2023.