Next German federal election

Next German federal election

←  2025 On or before 25 March 2029
←  21st Bundestag
All 630 seats in the Bundestag 316 seats needed for a majority
Leader Friedrich Merz [a] Tino Chrupalla Alice Weidel Saskia Esken Lars Klingbeil Party CDU/CSU AfD SPD Last election 28.5%, 208 seats 20.8%, 152 seats 16.4%, 120 seats   Leader Felix Banaszak Franziska Brantner Ines Schwerdtner Jan van Aken Party Greens Left Last election 11.6%, 85 seats 8.8%, 64 seats
A map of Bundestag constituencies used at the 2025 election.
Incumbent Government TBD TBD

The next German federal election will be held on or before 25 March 2029 to elect the members of the 22nd Bundestag.

Background

Date assignment

The Basic Law and the Federal Election Act provide that federal elections must be held on a Sunday or on a national holiday ^[b] no earlier than 46 and no later than 48 months after the first sitting of a Bundestag, unless the Bundestag is dissolved earlier. The 21st Bundestag will likely hold its first sitting on 25 March 2025, which would result in the following possible election dates:

• 28 January 2029
• 4 February 2029
• 11 February 2029
• 18 February 2029
• 25 February 2029
• 4 March 2029
• 11 March 2029
• 18 March 2029
• 25 March 2029

The exact date will be determined by the president of Germany in due course. ^[1]

Federal elections can be held earlier if the President dissolves the Bundestag and schedules a snap election. They may only do so under two possible scenarios described by the Basic Law.

1. Failed election of chancellor: If the Bundestag fails to elect a chancellor with an absolute majority of its members by the 15th day after the first ballot, the president is free to either appoint the candidate who received a plurality of votes on the last ballot as chancellor or to dissolve the Bundestag (in accordance with Article 63, Section 4 of the Basic Law).
2. Lost motion of confidence by the chancellor: The chancellor has the right to submit a motion to the Bundestag for a vote of confidence in him. If this motion fails, the Chancellor has various options for action, including requesting the President to dissolve the Bundestag. The President is free to accept or reject this request (in accordance with Article 68 of the Basic Law).

In both cases, federal elections would have to take place on a Sunday or national holiday no later than 60 days after the dissolution. ^{[2] [3] [c]}

No elections can be held during a state of defense; if this prolongs a legislative period, new elections must be held no later than six months after the end of the state of defense.

Electoral system

Germany has a mixed-member proportional electoral system. Voters have two votes: the first vote is used to directly elect a candidate in their own constituency using first-past-the-post, and the second vote is for a party's electoral list. To enter the Bundestag, a party must either get five percent of the nationwide second vote or get the plurality of the vote in three constituencies. Both cases result in that party entering the Bundestag, and it receives seats in proportion to its national share of the second vote. The Bundestag is fixed at 630 members, with the second vote alone determining the partisan composition of the Bundestag. If a political party wins overhang seats in a state, its constituency winners are excluded from the Bundestag in decreasing order of their first vote share. ^[4] Independent candidates may still be elected if they receive a plurality of the vote in their constituency. ^[5] Political parties representing national minorities are excempt from the 5% threshold. This has allowed the SSW (a party representing Danes and Frisians) to be represented in the Bundestag since 2021, despite receiving less than 5% of the national vote share.

Political parties and leaders

See also: List of political parties in Germany

The table below lists the parties represented in the 21st Bundestag.

Parties				Leader(s)	Leading candidate(s)	Ideology	Seats		Status
							Last election	Before election
	CDU/CSU		Christian Democratic Union of Germany Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands	Friedrich Merz	—	Christian democracy	164 / 630	164 / 630	Opposition
			Christian Social Union in Bavaria Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern	Markus Söder			44 / 630	44 / 630
	Alternative for Germany Alternative für Deutschland			Alice Weidel Tino Chrupalla	—	Right-wing populism	152 / 630	152 / 630	Opposition
	Social Democratic Party of Germany Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands			Saskia Esken Lars Klingbeil	—	Social democracy	120 / 630	120 / 630	Outgoing coalition
	Alliance 90/The Greens Bündnis 90/Die Grünen			Franziska Brantner Felix Banaszak	—	Green politics	85 / 630	85 / 630	Outgoing coalition
	The Left Die Linke			Ines Schwerdtner Jan van Aken	—	Democratic socialism	64 / 630	64 / 630	Opposition
	Ungrouped		SSW	Christian Dirschauer	—	Danish minority interests Frisian minority interests	1 / 630	1 / 630

Opinion polls

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Abs.	Union	AfD	SPD	Grüne	Linke	BSW	FDP	Others	Lead
INSA [6]	24–28 Feb 2025	1,001	–	30	22	15	11	9	5	4	4	8
2025 federal election	23 Feb 2025	–	17.5	28.5	20.8	16.4	11.6	8.8	4.97	4.3	4.6	7.7

Notes

1. Merz is the leader of the CDU/CSU group and the CDU; Markus Söder is the leader of the CSU.
2. In Germany, with the exception of the German Unity Day, all holidays are determined on the state level, and because of that, they do not necessarily apply for all German states. Currently, legal holidays in all states are New Year's Day, Good Friday, Easter Monday, Labour Day, Ascension Day, Whit Monday, German Unity Day, First Christmas Day, and Second Christmas Day (Boxing Day).
3. Possibility 1 has not happened since 1949; possibility 2 has been used a total of four times (in 1972, 1982, 2005, and 2025).

References

1. "§ 16 BWahlG – Einzelnorm". gesetze-im-internet.de. Archived from the original on 17 November 2020. Retrieved 24 April 2019.
2. "Wahl zum 19. Deutschen Bundestag am 24. September 2017". Der Bundeswahlleiter. Archived from the original on 8 November 2020. Retrieved 26 September 2017.
3. Martin Fehndrich (26 February 2017). "Bundeskanzlerwahl". Wahlrecht.de. Archived from the original on 8 May 2022. Retrieved 26 September 2017.
4. Frank Bräutigam; Kolja Schwartz. "Bundesverfassungsgericht kippt das neue Wahlrecht in Teilen" [Federal Constitutional Court overturns the new electoral law in parts]. tagesschau.de (in German). Archived from the original on 30 July 2024. Retrieved 30 July 2024.
5. "Bundeswahlgesetz" (PDF). Die Bundeswahlleiterin (The Federal Returning Officer).
6. "Sonntagsfrage – INSA (Wahlumfragen zur Bundestagswahl)". Wahlrecht.de.