Next Bulgarian parliamentary election

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Next Bulgarian parliamentary election
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←  Oct 2024 By 11 January 2029
All 240 seats in the National Assembly
121 seats needed for a majority
PartyLeaderCurrent seats
GERB–SDS Boyko Borisov 66
PP–DB Assen Vassilev 36
Revival Kostadin Kostadinov 33
DPS–NN Delyan Peevski 29
BSP–OL Atanas Zafirov 19
APS Hayri Sadakov 17
ITN Slavi Trifonov 17
MECh Radostin Vasilev 11
Velichie Ivelin Mihaylov 10
Incumbent Prime Minister
Rosen Zhelyazkov
GERB

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria by 11 January 2029 following a succession of snap elections beginning amidst a political crisis that began in 2021. [1] [2]

Contents

Background

After several snap elections, the National Assembly failed to form a long-term government as 'anti-corruption' parties made a breakthrough in the April 2021 elections. The 2023 elections saw little change from 2022, with Boyko Borisov's GERB–SDS of the centre-right narrowly coming in first place, ahead of the centrist PP–DB alliance. The far-right Vazrazhdane (VAZ) and the populist There Is Such a People (ITN) made gains, with the latter re-entering the Assembly after failing to pass the 2022 electoral threshold. [3]

On 22 May 2023, the PP- and GERB-led alliances agreed to form a government with a rotating prime minister. Nikolay Denkov, the PP candidate, would be prime minister for the first nine months of the government, and Mariya Gabriel, the GERB candidate, would be deputy prime minister and minister of foreign affairs. After nine months, the two would swap positions. After nine months, the change failed to materialize with negotiations failing, and no government could be formed. Dimitar Glachev was appointed interim prime minister, and elections were scheduled for 9 June 2024.[ citation needed ]

Seats recalculation crisis

As a result of a ruling by the Bulgarian Supreme Court in March 2025, the Veliche party also gained seats. This came at a difficult time for the coalition, as it fell to exactly the minimum 121 seats compared to the 119 seats held by the opposition. [4]

Opinion polls

The opinion poll results below were recalculated from the original data by excluding undecided and non-voters.

121 seats are needed for a parliamentary majority and all parties need to pass a 4% threshold (calculated excluding 'none of the above' votes) to win seats in the National Assembly.

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample GERB–SDS PP–DB Vaz. DPS–NN BSP–OL APS ITN MECh Veli. Others NOTA Lead
Gallup 11–23 Jul 202580027.5
68		13.5
33		14.1
34		18.6
46		8.4
20		1.5
0		5.6
13		6.5
16		4.4
10		6.1 [a] – [b] 8.9
Alpha Research 07–14 Jul 20251,00028.3
71		15.4
38		12.8
32		14.6
36		9.0
22		3.1
0		5.2
13		7.0
17		4.6
11		10.0 [c] – [b] 12.9
Sova Harris 09–11 Jun 20251,00025.0
67		13.9
37		14.4
39		8.7
23		7.0
18		5.9
15		4.5
12		5.7
15		5.2
14		9.7– [b] 10.6
Gallup 28 May – 4 Jun 20251,20425.1
69		14.5
40		13.7
38		16.1
44		7.2
20		4.0
0		5.2
14		5.6
15		3.8
0		4.82.3 [b] 9.0
Trend 12–18 May 20251,00126.2
71		13.8
37		13.5
36		11.6
31		6.8
18		5.8
15		6
16		5.9
16		3.9
0		6.5 [d] – [b] 12.4
MarketLinks 18–30 Apr 20251,01025.4
64		17.2
44		13
33		12.9
33		6.8
17		6.2
15		4.3
10		5.2
13		4.6
11		4.52.9 [b] 7.0
17 Apr 2025The DPS–NN supports the government [5]
16 Apr 2025The APS withdraws its support from the government
Myara 3–13 Apr 202580727.9
67		15.0
36		14.0
34		10.9
26		7.1
17		7.5
18		6.7
16		6.5
15		4.5
11		5.2– [b] 12.9
MarketLinks 22–30 Mar 20251,00426.3
65		16.9
42		12.5
31		12.8
32		6.8
16		7.4
18		5.1
12		5.0
12		5.0
12		2.12.5 [b] 9.4
Gallup 19–30 Mar 202584625.8
68		15.4
41		12.3
32		16.0
42		6.6
17		5.3
14		5.1
13		4.8
13		3.9
0		5.1– [b] 9.6
Trend 10–16 Mar 20251,02026.7
73		13.6
37		12.5
34		10.9
29		6.9
18		6.7
18		5.9
16		5.7
15		3.9
0		7.2 [e] – [b] 13.1
13 Mar 2025 The Constitutional Court orders a seat re-calculation and Velichie re-enters the National Assembly [6] [7]
MarketLinks 22 Feb–2 Mar 20251,02525.7
68		16.0
42		13.0
34		13.4
35		6.8
18		7.5
19		4.3
11		4.9
13		–8.32.7 [b] 9.7
Gallup 13–20 Feb 202584126.5
74		11.8
32		12.6
35		12.5
34		8.2
22		5.9
16		5.2
14		4.7
13		3.8
0		5.0– [b] 13.9
Myara 6–16 Feb 202580328.2
68		14.8
36		14.4
34		10.8
26		7.2
17		7.4
18		6.8
16		6.3
15		4.0
10		5.9– [b] 13.4
Market Links 25 Jan–3 Feb 20251,00827.5
73		15.5
41		13.1
35		11
29		6.6
17		8.4
22		4.9
13		4.1
10		–8.92.7 [b] 12.3
Trend 24–30 Jan 20251,00326.6
73		13.2
36		13.0
35		10.3
28		6.9
18		7.1
19		5.9
16		5.6
15		3.8
0		7.6 [f] – [b] 13.4
Alpha Research 15–20 Jan 20251,00027.3
71		14.1
36		13.8
36		11.4
29		8.4
21		7.9
20		6.5
17		4.2
10		–4.9– [b] 13.2
16 Jan 2025The Zhelyazkov Government is sworn in
Gallup 8–12 Jan 202580026.6
69		13.6
35		14.2
36		14.1
36		8.4
22		6.8
17		5.3
13		4.9
12		3.6
0		2.5– [b] 12.4
Market Links 12–20 Dec 20241,00727.5
74		15.4
42		14.1
38		12.5
34		7.7
21		6.8
18		4.8
13		3.6
0		–7.62.4 [b] 12.1
October 2024 election 27 Oct 2024—26.4
69		14.2
37		13.4
35		11.5
30		7.6
20		7.5
19		6.8
18		4.6
12		4.0
0		4.1– [g] 12.2
  1. ↑ including 1.9% undecided
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 This poll reported the percentage respondents that do not support any party, or are undecided however the data was recalculated to exclude these percentages.
  3. ↑ including 6.4% undecided
  4. ↑ Blue Bulgaria included, receiving 1.1%.
  5. ↑ Blue Bulgaria included, receiving 1.1%.
  6. ↑ Including Blue Bulgaria with 1.2%.
  7. ↑ The electoral commission excludes none of the above votes when calculating the percentages received by parties for the purpose of seat allocation.

References

  1. ↑ "Bulgaria elections postponed as political crisis deepens". Politico. 19 August 2024. Retrieved 11 December 2024.
  2. ↑ "Bulgarian parliament paralysed as political crisis drags on". Euractiv. 18 November 2024. Retrieved 11 December 2024.
  3. ↑ "Bulgaria elections 2024". Reuters. 3 April 2023.{{cite web}}: |first= missing |last= (help)CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  4. ↑ "Velichie".
  5. ↑ "Пеевски не вижда проблем със стабилността на кабинета, той ще го крепи". 16 April 2025.
  6. ↑ "Конституционният съд обяви за незаконен избора на 16 депутати, "Величие" влиза в НС". Mediapool.bg (in Bulgarian). 13 March 2025. Retrieved 13 March 2025.
  7. ↑ BNT (13 March 2025). "КС обяви за незаконен избора на 16 народни представители, "Величие" влиза в парламента". Bulgarian National Television .
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