October 2024 Bulgarian parliamentary election

Last updated

October 2024 Bulgarian parliamentary election
Flag of Bulgaria.svg
  June 2024 27 October 20242028 

All 240 seats in the National Assembly
121 seats needed for a majority
PartyLeaderCurrent seats
GERB–SDS Boyko Borisov 68
PP–DB Kiril Petkov 39
Revival Kostadin Kostadinov 38
APS Dzhevdet Chakarov 25
DPS–NN Delyan Peevski 22
BSP–OL Atanas Zafirov 19
ITN Slavi Trifonov 16
Velichie Ivelin Mihaylov 13
Incumbent Prime Minister
Dimitar Glavchev (caretaker)
Independent

Snap parliamentary elections will be held in Bulgaria in 27 October 2024, [1] [2] after all three attempts to form a government following the latest June 2024 elections failed. They will be the country's sixth snap elections since 2021.

Contents

Background

Elections and government breakdown

Following several snap elections, the Bulgarian National Assembly had failed to put together a long-lasting government since 'anti-corruption' parties made a breakthrough in the April 2021 election. [3] [4] The 2023 election saw little change from 2022, with Boyko Borisov's centre-right GERB–SDS narrowly coming in first place, above the centrist PP–DB alliance. The far-right Revival (VAZ) and the populist There is Such a People (ITN) made gains, with the latter re-entering the Assembly after it failed to reach the electoral threshold in 2022. [5] [6]

On 22 May 2023, the PP- and GERB-led alliances agreed to form a government with a rotational premiership. Nikolai Denkov, PP's candidate, would be the Prime Minister for the first nine months of the government and Mariya Gabriel, the GERB candidate, would serve as deputy prime minister and foreign affairs minister. After nine months, the two would switch positions. [7] After nine months, the switch failed to materialise with negotiations breaking down, [8] [9] [10] [11] and no government could be formed. Dimitar Glachev was appointed as caretaker prime minister, [12] and elections were scheduled for 9 June 2024. [13] [14]

June elections

The June 2024 elections, held at the same time as the European Parliament elections, had the lowest turnout (33%) since the end of communist rule in 1989. [3] It resulted in GERB–SDS winning most of the votes and 68 seats, with no party or alliance obtaining enough seats to form a majority in the National Assembly. [15] The new elected 50th Parliament replaced the 49th Parliament, [16] when all elected members were sworn in on 19 June. [17] Government formation attempts were given to GERB, PP–DB and There is Such a People (ITN), with the final attempt failing on 5 August. [18] [19] [20]

On 9 August, the Bulgarian President as a consequence instead appointed the Vice President of the Bulgarian National Audit Office, Goritsa Grancharova-Kozhareva, as the next caretaker prime minister. [21] Grancharova-Kozhareva was granted ten days to form a proposal for the next caretaker government to be appointed on 20 August, and the upcoming next parliamentary elections were scheduled for 20 October 2024. [22] Grancharova-Kozhareva made the controversial decision to propose that the incumbent minister of the interior, Kalin Stoyanov, should remain in his role, but this was opposed by president Rumen Radev. Radev rejected the government proposal, delaying the upcoming election. [23]

Following the rejection of Grancharova-Kozhareva, Radev re-appointed Dimitar Glavchev as the caretaker prime minister, [24] and his government proposal was sworn in on 27 August, and the elections were set for the 27 October. [25] [26]

Changes in the Assembly's composition prior to the election

One MP was expelled from the BSP by its national council on 18 June, before being sworn in. [27]

The Velichie parliamentary group comprised 13 MPs after the election. On 5 July, six MPs broke away from the group, dissolving it. [28]

A rift in Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) surrounding Delyan Peevski saw 17 MPs expelled and a further eight leave. [29]

As of the end of July 2024, the composition of the Assembly was as follows:

Composition of the 50th Parliament
(by the end of July 2024) [30]

National Assembly Bulgaria July 2024.svg
  GERB-SDS (68 MPs)
  PP–DB (39 MPs)
  VAZ (38 MPs)
  DPS (22 MPs)
  BSPzB (17 MPs)
  ITN (16 MPs)
  Independents expelled from DPS
(25 MPs, led by Ahmed Dogan) [29]
  Independents expelled from the former Velichie
(7 MPs, led by Nikolay Markov (politician)  [ bg ]) [28]
  Independents from the dissolved Velichie
(6 MPs, led by Ivelin Mikhailov  [ bg ]) [28]
  Independent expelled from BSPzB
(2 MPs, Kaloyan Metodiev  [ bg ] and Mikhail Stavrev) [27]

Electoral system

The 240 members of the National Assembly are elected by open list, proportional representation from 31 multi-member constituencies ranging in size from four to nineteen seats. The electoral threshold is 4% for all parties or electoral coalitions, with seats allocated according to the largest remainder method using a Hare quota. [31] [32]

Parties

Contesting parties and coalitions

Below is the official list of parties and coalitions that registered lists for the Bulgarian Parliamentary elections as of 9th September. [33] [34]

#Party or coalitionIdeologyLeader 2024 result
Votes (%)Seats
Party of the Greens  [ bg ] Green politics
Left-wing nationalism
Vladimir Nikolov0.25%
0 / 240
Attack Bulgarian nationalism
Ultranationalism
Volen Siderov DNP
Bulgarians Bulgarian nationalism
National conservatism
Georgi Georgiev-Goti 0.04%
0 / 240
Bulgarian National Union – New Democracy Ultranationalism Boyan Rasate  [ bg ]0.10%
0 / 240
Revival Ultranationalism
Right-wing populism
Kostadin Kostadinov 13.38%
38 / 240
There is Such a People Right-wing populism Slavi Trifonov 5.79%
16 / 240
Competence, Responsibility and Truth  [ bg ] Right-wing populism Svetozar Saev  [ bg ]We the Citizens
People's Party "Truth and Only the Truth"  [ bg ] Anti-vaccination
Ultranationalism
Ventsislav Angelov  [ bg ]0.11%
0 / 240
Pravoto  [ bg ] Populism Maria KolevaDNP
Direct Democracy  [ bg ] Bulgarian nationalism
Direct democracy
Petar Klisarov  [ bg ]0.24%
0 / 240
Bulgaria of Labor and Reason  [ bg ] Anti-Western sentiment
Hard Euroscepticism
Georgi Manolov  [ bg ]DNP
Democrats for Responsibility, Solidarity and Tolerance Turkish minority interests
Erdoğanism
Taner Alimpolla  [ bg ]DNP
Socialist Party "Bulgarian Way"  [ bg ] Left-wing nationalism
Euroscepticism
Angel Dimov  [ bg ]DNP
Morality, Unity, Honour Anti-corruption
Social conservatism
Radostin Vasilev  [ bg ]2.98%
0 / 240
National Movement for Rights and Freedoms Turkish minority interests Guner Tahir  [ bg ]Rose Coalition
People's Voice Populism Svetoslav Vitkov 0.30%
0 / 240
Freedom and Dignity People's Party  [ bg; tr ] Turkish minority interests Orkhan Ismailov  [ bg ]DNP
VMRO – Bulgarian National Movement National conservatism
Bulgarian nationalism
Krasimir Karakachanov 0.96%
0 / 240
Majesty Bulgarian nationalism
Anti-corruption
Albena Pekova4.52%
13 / 240
Brigade  [ bg ] Arben Khavalyov  [ bg ]DNP
Bulgarian Union for Direct Democracy  [ bg ] Direct democracy
Bulgarian nationalism
Georgi Nedelchev  [ bg ]0.04%
0 / 240
Bulgarian Rise National conservatism Stefan Yanev 0.56%
0 / 240
Volt Bulgaria European federalism
Pro-Europeanism
Nastimir Ananiev PP–DB
Unification Centrism
Liberalism
Ivan Hristanov  [ bg ]0.24%
0 / 240
DPS – A New Beginning Movement for Rights and Freedoms Turkish minority interests
Liberalism
Delyan Peevski 16.56%
47 / 240
New Leaders Georgi TityukovDNE
Bulgarian Voice Georgi Zacharinin Popov0.15%
0 / 240
My Country Bulgaria Bulgarian Left Democratic socialism Boyan Kirov Solidary Bulgaria
United Social-Democracy  [ bg ] Social democracy Yordan Gergov
Russophiles Bulgarian Communist Party Communism Zonka Spasova 0.11%
(NB)
0 / 240
Party of the Bulgarian Communists Communism
Marxism–Leninism
Collective leadership
Russophiles for the
Revival of the Fatherland
Russophilia
National conservatism
Nikolay Malinov  [ bg ]
Free Voters Green Union Green politics DNE
Republicans for Bulgaria Conservatism
Economic liberalism
Tsvetan Tsvetanov DNP
Union of Free Democrats Conservatism Milan MilanovDNP
Blue Bulgaria Conservative Union of the Right National conservatism
Anti-communism
Petar Moskov 1.52%
0 / 240
Bulgarian Democratic Forum  [ bg ] National conservatism
Anti-communism
Zhaklin Toleva  [ bg ]
Movement for Democratic Action-DZ Liberal conservatism Stefan Ivanov
National Movement for Stability and Progress Liberalism Stanimir Ilchev
Bulgarian New Democracy Liberal conservatism Valeri Georgiev
Conservative Bulgaria National conservatism Boris Yachev
Radical-Democratic Party Social conservatism
Anti-communism
Zahari Petrov
PP–DB We Continue the Change Liberalism
Anti-corruption
Kiril Petkov
Asen Vasilev
13.92%
39 / 240
Democrats for a Strong Bulgaria Conservatism
Anti-communism
Atanas Atanasov
Yes, Bulgaria! Liberalism
Anti-corruption
Hristo Ivanov
BSP – United Left Bulgarian Socialist Party Social conservatism
Social democracy
Atanas Zafirov 6.85%
(BSPzB)
19 / 240
Ecoglasnost Green politics
Environmentalism
Emil Georgiev  [ bg ]
Political Club "Trakiya"  [ bg ] Left wing nationalism Stefan Nachev
Morality, Initiative, Patriotism  [ bg ] Left-wing nationalism Simeon Slavchev  [ bg ]
Stand Up.BG Social democracy
Left-wing populism
Maya Manolova 1.42%
(SB)
0 / 240
Alternative for Bulgarian Revival Social democracy
Moderate social conservatism
Rumen Petkov 0.69%
(The Left)
0 / 240
Movement 21 Social democracy Tatyana Doncheva
Bulgarian Social Democracy-EuroLeft Social Democracy Aleksandr Tomov 0.10%
(Rose Coalition)
0 / 240
Communist Party of Bulgaria Marxism–Leninism Alexander Paunov Neutral Bulgaria
Bulgarian Spring  [ bg ] Left-wing nationalism Svetoslav MandikovWe the Citizens
Movement for Social Humanism Progressivism Alexander RadoslavovDNP
European Security and Integration Roma Minority politics Toma Tomov
Political Movement "Social Democrats" Social democracy Elena Noneva
Union for the Fatherland Left-wing nationalism Vasil Tochkov
GERB–SDS GERB Social conservatism
Pro-Europeanism
Boyko Borisov 23.99%
68 / 240
SDS Christian democracy
Anti-communism
Rumen Hristov
George's Day Movement National conservatism
Bulgarian nationalism
Lyuben Dilov Jr.
Alliance for Rights and Freedoms Just Bulgaria United Patriots  [ bg ] (SBOR)Dimitar IlievDNP
Agrarian People's Union Roumen Yonchev Agrarianism Blue Bulgaria
DPS dissidents Liberalism
Turkish minority interests
Dzhevdet Chakarov DNE

DPS leadership dispute

On 27 August, the central leadership organisation of the DPS removed Delyan Peevski as chairman of the party, and seven MPs close to Peevski were expelled from the party. This move has been linked to Ahmed Dogan, MP and honorary chairman of the party. [35] [36] [37] Peevski called the move unconstitutional, [8] and gained control of the official party website. [38] This follows the rift in the party following the election, where the parliamentary group split. [29] The controversy surrounding Peevski has led to two groups emerging, [39] DPS – A New Beginning [40] and Democracy, Rights and Freedoms, [41] with both groups registering as electoral coalitions with the acronym DPS in order to get around the rules of the electoral commission. [6] [42] After DPS–Peevski was recognized to be the legitimate DPS by the Supreme Administrative Court of Bulgaria, DPS~Dogan changed their name to "Alliance for Rights and Freedoms" (АПС instead of ДПС) and registered without listing DPS as a member of the alliance. [43]

Opinion polls

The opinion poll results below were recalculated from the original data and exclude polls that chose "I will not vote" or "I am uncertain" options.

121 seats are needed for a parliamentary majority.

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample GERB–SDS DPS PP–DB Revival BSP–OL ITN Veli. Others NOTA Lead
APS DPS–NN
11 September 2024 DPS splits into APS and DPS-NN
Market Links 14–23 August 20241,03826.2
76
18.4
53
17.1
50
13.7
40
7.4
21
3.8
0
2.4
0
8.03.07.8
Gallup 1–9 August 202480225.2
74
14.5
42
15.2
44
14.2
41
7.3
21
6.2
18
3.6
0
13.4 [lower-alpha 1] -10.0
Market Links 20–28 July 20241,00825.8
71
14.4
40
17.2
47
12.3
34
7.7
21
5.8
16
4.2
11
8.62.88.6
Market Links 18–25 June 20241,01424.4
66
18.3
50
16.2
44
13.8
38
5.3
14
5.4
15
5.0
13
6.75.86.1
June 2024 election results 9 June 202424.0
68
16.6
47
13.9
39
13.4
38
6.9
19
5.8
16
4.5
13
12.32.97.4
  1. MECh - 3.4%, Others - 10.4%

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