July 2021 Bulgarian parliamentary election

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July 2021 Bulgarian parliamentary election
Flag of Bulgaria.svg
←  April 2021 11 July 2021 November 2021  →
All 240 seats in the National Assembly
121 seats needed for a majority
Turnout41.63% (Decrease2.svg 7.47pp)
PartyLeaderVote %Seats+/–
ITN Slavi Trifonov 23.7865+14
GERB–SDS Boyko Borisov 23.2163−12
BSPzB Korneliya Ninova 13.2236−7
DB A. Atanasov & H. Ivanov 12.4834+7
DPS Mustafa Karadayi 10.5729−1
ISMV Maya Manolova 4.9513−1
This lists parties that won seats. See the complete results below.
July 2021 Bulgarian parliamentary election - Vote Strength.svg
July 2021 Bulgarian parliamentary election - Seat distribution.svg
Prime Minister beforePrime Minister after
Stefan Yanev (caretaker)
Independent
(First Yanev Government)		 Stefan Yanev (caretaker)
Independent
(Second Yanev Government)

Snap parliamentary elections were held in Bulgaria on 11 July 2021 after no party was able or willing to form a government following the April 2021 elections. [1] The populist party There Is Such a People (ITN), led by musician and television host Slavi Trifonov, narrowly won the most seats over a coalition of the conservative GERB and Union of Democratic Forces parties. Four other parties (the leftist BSP for Bulgaria, the liberal alliance Democratic Bulgaria, the centrist Turkish minority party Movement for Rights and Freedoms, and the anti-corruption Stand Up! Mafia, Get Out!) won seats in the 240-member Parliament as well.

Contents

ITN's success was propelled primarily by young voters. The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) assessed the election as being "competitive" and with "fundamental freedoms being generally respected." [2] On 6 September, BSP handed back the last mandate of forming a government, meaning the parliament would be dissolved and a third parliamentary election would officially take place in 2021. [3] President Radev declared on 11 September that there would be '2-in-1' elections on November 14 for the first time in Bulgarian history, where voters will be able to vote on the president and the parliament. This decision was taken 'to save treasury costs and voters time'. [4]

Background

The previous election in April saw the ruling GERB party win 75 seats, There Is Such A People (ITN) win 51 seats, BSP for Bulgaria win 43 seats, the Movement for Rights and Freedoms win 30 seats, Democratic Bulgaria win 27 seats and Stand Up! Mafia, Get Out! win 14 seats. After Boyko Borisov of GERB and Slavi Trifonov of There Is Such A People (ITN) were unable to form governments, the BSP stated that they would refuse the mandate to form the government, as the three anti-corruption parties (ITN, Democratic Bulgaria and ISMV) were unwilling to work with them. [1]

Electoral system

The 240 members of the National Assembly are elected by open list proportional representation from 31 multi-member constituencies ranging in size from 4 to 16 seats. The electoral threshold is 4% for parties, with seats allocated according to the largest remainder method. [5]

Parties and coalitions

Parliamentary parties

PartyMain ideologyLeaderCurrent seats
GERB–SDS Conservatism Boyko Borisov
75
ITN Populism Slavi Trifonov
51
BSPzB Democratic socialism Korneliya Ninova
43
DPS Turkish minority interests Mustafa Karadayi
30
DB Liberal conservatism Hristo Ivanov
27
ISMV Social liberalism Maya Manolova
14

Other parties

In May 2021, VMRO – Bulgarian National Movement formed an alliance with fellow neo-nationalists Volya Movement and National Front for the Salvation of Bulgaria in an alliance called Bulgarian Patriots. [6]

PartyMain ideologyLeaderCurrent seats
Bulgarian National Union – New Democracy Ultranationalism Boris Ivanov
Bogdan Yotsov		No seats
Bulgarian Patriots National conservatism Yulian Angelov
Revival Bulgarian nationalism Kostadin Kostadinov
Bulgarian Summer Direct democracy Boril Sokolov
RzB Conservatism Tsvetan Tsvetanov
Left Union Socialism Nikolay Malinov

Opinion polls

The opinion poll results below were recalculated from the original data and excludes pollees that chose 'I will not vote' or 'I am uncertain'.

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size		 GERB–SDS ITN BSPzB DPS DB ISMV BP Revival BL RzB Left Union Others / None Lead
VMRO Volya NFSB
July 2021 election11 July 2021–23.2%23.8%13.2%10.6%12.5%4.9%3.1%3.0%1.8%0.3%0.4%3.2%0.6%
Alpha Research / BNT Exit polls (20:00)—23.5%22.3%14.1%11.7%14.1%5.5%3.2%2.3%1.3%–0.3%1.7%1.2%
Gallup / BNT Exit polls (20:00)—22.1%21.5%15.1%11.8%13.7%4.9%3.3%3.2%2.2%–0.3%1.8%0.6%
Alpha Research 4–7 July 2021101321.5%21.8%16.4%11.1%12%5.4%3.8%3.2%1.2%–0.5%3.1%0.3%
Trend 3-7 July 2021100220.5%21.3%15.9%11.3%12.4%5.1%3.9%3.1%1.6%–0.8%4.1%0.8%
Gallup 30 Jun–7 July 2021101020.3%21.3%15.9%11.5%12.2%6.1%4%3.1%2.5%–1%2.1%1%
Sova Harris 2–6 July 2021100022.6%22.1%16%10.9%10.6%5.3%4.5%––––8%0.5%
Exacta 1–5 July 2021100521.4%20.8%15.8%11.2%12.8%4.8%4%2.8%1.8%––4.6%0.6%
Mediana 26 June–2 July 202192022.5%21.7%20.6%11.1%10%5.1%4.8%2.2%–––2%0.8%
Nasoca 23–30 Jun 2021102521.4%20.5%15.8%10.5%11.3%5.3%4.4%2.3%2.1%––6.4%0.9%
Specter 24–27 Jun 202170321.4%19.7%14.5%10.5%12.2%5.0%5.2%2.4%0.9%0.5%1.3%6.4%1.7%
Market links 18–25 Jun 202162621.8%20.8%18.7%10.5%13.8%6%3.2%2.7%1.4%––1.1%1%
Barometer 18–23 June 202186022.5%18.2%17.1%11.6%9.1%4.3%6.4%1.4%–1.2%1.9%6.2%4.3%
Trend 11–18 Jun 20211,00321.7%20.2%16.1%10.9%11.2%5.0%3.9%2.3%1.9%–1.1%5.7%1.5%
Sova Harris 10–15 Jun 20211,00022.4%21.7%18.7%11.4%11.1%5.4%4.9%––––4.4%0.7%
Mediana 10–15 Jun 20211,00821.4%24.0%21.3%11.2%7.2%6.9%5.1%1.5%–––1.4%2.6%
Gallup 3–11 Jun 20211,01221.0%21.2%15.9%11.9%12.1%5.8%3.5%2.7%2.4%––3.5%0.2%
Specter 5–10 Jun 202173121.0%19.4%14.1%10.3%11.5%4.8%4.8%2.8%0.9%0.9%1.5%8.0%1.6%
Alpha Research 30 May–7 Jun 20211,00720.3%18.2%14.4%9.9%11.9%5.3%3.4%2.8%1.1%–1.8%10.9%2.1%
Barometer 1–6 Jun 202184024.1%17.1%16.9%11.3%8.9%4.1%6.1%1.5%–1.3%1.1%7.6%7.0%
Market Links 19–27 May 202167623.7%19.8%19.3%10.6%13.3%4.8%4.6%2%–––2%3.9%
CAM [a] 14–21 May 2021–23.8%20.9%18.0%10.5%11.4%4.4%3.7%1.9%–––5.5%2.9%
Gallup [a] 7–14 May 202181222.8%20.1%16.1%11.2%11.6%5.6%3.1%1.4%–2.6%2.8%––6.9%2.7%
Market Links [b] [c] 16–23 Apr 20211,05323.2%22.3%18.1%10.3%13.1%6.5%3.3%––1.9%–––1.4%0.9%
Gallup 12–14 Apr 202183127.2%23.2%13.8%10.4%12.0%4.3%––––––––4.0%
April 2021 election 4 Apr 2021–25.8%17.4%14.8%10.4%9.3%4.6%3.6%2.3%2.4%2.9%1.3%0.5%4.7%8.4%
  1. 1 2 Includes voter-only data.
  2. ↑ Includes voters and non-voters.
  3. ↑ The sum of all percentages is above or below 100.

Graphical representation of recalculated data:

Campaign

During the buildup to the April election, Borisov sought to increase his party's share of the rural vote, making campaign stops at small villages in the Rhodope Mountains. [7] The April election showed a clear divide between rural and urban areas of the country; towns favored established parties, while Sofia and other cities went predominantly for new opposition parties, including ITN. [8] Reporters predicted these trends would influence the July election as well. [8]

Results

There Is Such a People received the most votes, finishing around 15,000 votes ahead of GERB–SDS. It was the first time that GERB or a GERB-led coalition had not won the most votes or seats since the party's establishment in 2006. Four other parties (BSP for Bulgaria, Democratic Bulgaria, Movement for Rights and Freedom, and Stand Up! Mafia, Get Out!) also won seats. [9] There Is Such a People performed well among young voters, with 37.4% of Generation Z supporting the party and 30.9% of voters aged 30–39. [10] GERB–SDS received high support from voters aged 40–69, and BSP for Bulgaria received high support from voters older than 70. [10]

International observers from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe said freedoms were respected in the election. [9]

July 2021 Bulgaria Parliament.svg
PartyVotes%Seats+/–
There Is Such a People 657,82923.7865+14
GERB–SDS 642,16523.2163–12
BSP for Bulgaria 365,69513.2236–7
Democratic Bulgaria 345,33112.4834+7
Movement for Rights and Freedoms 292,51410.5729–1
Stand Up! Mafia, Get Out! 136,8854.9513–1
Bulgarian Patriots 85,7953.1000
Revival 82,1472.9700
Bulgarian Summer 49,8331.800New
Attack 12,5850.4500
Left Union for a Clean and Holy Republic 10,3090.370New
Republicans for Bulgaria 8,5460.3100
National Union of the Right  [ bg ]7,8720.280New
People's Voice 4,7410.1700
Bulgarian National Union – New Democracy 4,6900.1700
Freedom  [ bg ]4,3040.160New
Bulgaria of Labor and Reason  [ bg ]3,9480.140New
Together for Change 3,4450.1200
Morality, Initiative and Patriotism  [ bg ]3,4270.120New
Party of the Greens  [ bg ]3,2570.1200
Direct Democracy  [ bg ]3,1430.1100
Brigade  [ bg ]2,1870.080New
Rise  [ bg ]8620.030New
Independents1420.0100
None of the above35,2011.27––
Total2,766,853100.002400
Valid votes2,766,85399.66
Invalid/blank votes9,3420.34
Total votes2,776,195100.00
Registered voters/turnout6,668,54041.63
Source: CIK, IFES

Voter demographics

Gallup exit polling suggested the following demographic breakdown. The parties which received below 4% of the vote are included in 'Others':

Voter demographics [11]
Social group % ITN  % GERB  % BSP  % DB  % DPS  % ISMV  % BP  % Revival  % Others % Lead
Exit Poll Result22.322.215121053380.1
Final Result242313121153361
Gender
Men222114121243391
Women21221614953371
Age
18–303313618104331015
30-60232211151053471
60+10253171143275
Highest Level of Education
Lower Education161018145321427
Secondary Education23241781143371
Higher Education22211421363461
Ethnic Group
Bulgarian23231715253480
Turkic4136171100458
Roma192015228330108
Location
Towns and Villages15221652912287
Smaller Cities2422218943452
Larger Cities252114142644104
Sofia162110321633811

Aftermath

The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe issued a statement that "Bulgaria's early parliamentary elections were competitive and fundamental freedoms were generally respected. The campaign environment was dominated by mutual accusations of corruption between the former ruling party and the provisional government, as well as by efforts by law-enforcement to curb vote-buying." [2]

The elections resulted in a narrow victory for the newly established There Is Such A People (ITN) party over the ruling GERB party. However, ITN won only 65 out of 240 seats in the National Assembly. Following the elections, ITN opted to try and form a minority government and started talks with potential partners (DB, IBG-NI & BSP) in order to secure their support. Nevertheless, these attempts proved unsuccessful and as a result ITN announced on 10 August that they were withdrawing their proposed cabinet, making a third election more likely. [12] [13] The leader of ITN, Slavi Trifonov, said in a video statement “This means new elections". [12] The mandate to form a cabinet went to GERB. [13] GERB, the party of the previous prime minister, Boyko Borisov, said earlier "it would not try to form a government". [12] The BSP said that if the scenario repeats itself, it would suggest that the current caretaker cabinet becomes permanent. IBG-NI also expressed confidence that it could come up with a solution if handed the mandate to form a government. [13] Trifonov subsequently announced that he would not support any other parties proposing a cabinet. [14] Parliament announced on 2 September that Bulgaria would hold the first round of the presidential election on November 14, with a snap parliamentary election likely to take place in the same month. [15] [16] On 6 September, the BSP handed back the last mandate of forming a government, meaning the parliament would be dissolved and a third parliamentary election would officially take place in 2021. [3] President Rumen Radev declared on 11 September that there would be 2-in-1 elections on November 14 for the first time in Bulgarian history, where voters would be able to vote on the president and the parliament. This decision was taken "to save treasury costs and voters time". [4]

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References

  1. 1 2 Bulgaria faces fresh elections as Socialists refuse to form a government Archived 2021-05-08 at the Wayback Machine Reuters, 1 May 2021
  2. 1 2 "Fundamental freedoms generally respected in Bulgarian elections, but media shortcomings, lack of issue-driven campaign fail to engage voters, observers say". Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe . Archived from the original on 2021-07-12. Retrieved 2021-07-13.
  3. 1 2 "Bulgaria faces fresh elections as Socialists refuse to form a government". Reuters. 2021-09-02. Archived from the original on 2021-09-05. Retrieved 2021-09-06.
  4. 1 2 "Bulgaria's President: Parliamentary and presidential elections will be '2 in 1' on November 14". The Sofia Globe. 2021-09-11. Archived from the original on 2021-09-11. Retrieved 2021-09-11.
  5. ↑ Electoral system for national legislature – Bulgaria Archived 2021-07-07 at the Wayback Machine IDEA
  6. ↑ "Ultra-nationalists, populists form 'Bulgarian Patriots' alliance for July elections". The Sofia Globe. 20 May 2021. Archived from the original on 21 May 2021. Retrieved 11 July 2021.
  7. ↑ Tsolova, Tsvetelia (2 April 2021). "Bulgarian PM woos rural voters with infrastructure in tough re-election bid". Reuters . Archived from the original on 16 July 2021. Retrieved 15 July 2021.
  8. 1 2 Nuttal, Grace (8 July 2021). "Diaspora voters set to choose change in Bulgaria and Moldova". bne IntelliNews . Archived from the original on 16 July 2021. Retrieved 15 July 2021.
  9. 1 2 Toshkov, Veselin (12 July 2021). "Anti-elite party earns tight win in Bulgarian elections". Associated Press . Archived from the original on 12 July 2021. Retrieved 13 July 2021.
  10. 1 2 "37.4% of Generation Z supports There is Such a People party: survey". Radio Bulgaria . 13 July 2021. Archived from the original on 13 July 2021. Retrieved 13 July 2021.
  11. ↑ "Демографски профили на вота – 12 July". Галъп интернешънъл (in Bulgarian). 2021-07-12. Retrieved 2022-08-10.
  12. 1 2 3 "Bulgaria's Winning Party Withdraws Proposed Cabinet, Paving Way For New Vote". RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty. Archived from the original on 2021-08-14. Retrieved 2021-08-14.
  13. 1 2 3 "Bulgaria Edges Closer to Third Election in a Year". Balkan Insight. 2021-08-10. Archived from the original on 2021-08-13. Retrieved 2021-08-14.
  14. ↑ "Bulgaria could be heading for third general election in a year". euronews. 2021-08-10. Archived from the original on 2021-08-14. Retrieved 2021-08-14.
  15. ↑ "Bulgaria to hold presidential election on Nov. 14". Reuters. 2021-09-02. Archived from the original on 2021-09-02. Retrieved 2021-09-02.
  16. ↑ "Bulgaria will hold November 14 presidential vote amid political crisis". POLITICO. 2021-09-02. Archived from the original on 2021-09-02. Retrieved 2021-09-02.
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