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All 150 seats in the House of Representatives 76 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The next Dutch general election to elect the members of the House of Representatives is scheduled for March 2028, but may be held at an earlier date if a snap election is called.
Pursuant to articles C.1, C.2 and C.3 of the electoral law, elections for the House of Representatives take place every four years in March, unless a snap election is called. The 150 members of the House of Representatives are elected by semi-open list proportional representation. The number of seats per list is determined using the D'Hondt method. A list must receive a number of votes equal to or exceeding the Hare quota (1 full seat) in order to qualify for seat distribution, meaning there is an electoral threshold of 0.67%. [1] Voters have the option to cast a preferential vote. The seats won by a list are first allocated to the candidates who, in preferential votes, have received at least 25% of the Hare quota (effectively ¼ of a seat or 0.17% of the total votes), regardless of their placement on the electoral list. If multiple candidates from a list pass this threshold, their ordering is determined based on the number of votes received. Any remaining seats are allocated to candidates according to their position on the electoral list. [2] [3]
The averages in the graphs below were constructed using polls listed below conducted by the four major Dutch pollsters. The trendlines show local regressions representing seat totals (not vote percentages).
There are 150 seats in total, 76 seats are needed for a majority. Parties are denoted with a dash if no indication is given of their level in the polls.
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | PVV | GL–PvdA | VVD | NSC | D66 | BBB | CDA | SP | Denk | PvdD | FvD | SGP | CU | Volt | JA21 | Lead | Ref | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PvdA | GL | |||||||||||||||||||
| Ipsos | 22–25 Mar 2024 | 1,016 | 49 | 24 | 20 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 25 | [4] | |
| Peil.nl | 22 Mar 2024 | – | 49 | 25 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 24 | [5] | |
| Peil.nl | 8 Mar 2024 | – | 49 | 25 | 15 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 24 | [5] | |
| Ipsos | 23–26 Feb 2024 | 1,022 | 49 | 25 | 19 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 24 | [6] | |
| I&O Research | 9–12 Feb 2024 | 2,752 | 49 | 25 | 17 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 24 | [7] | |
| Peil.nl | 9 Feb 2024 | 6,000 | 52 | 25 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 27 | [8] | |
| Peil.nl | 2–3 Feb 2024 | 4,500+ | 50 | 25 | 13 | 15 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 25 | [9] | |
| Ipsos | 26–29 Jan 2024 | 1,025 | 45 | 25 | 19 | 18 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 20 | [10] | |
| Peil.nl | 19–20 Jan 2024 | 5,500+ | 49 | 23 | 12 | 17 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 26 | [11] | |
| Peil.nl | 22 Dec 2023 | – | 48 | 22 | 13 | 18 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 26 | [12] | |
| Ipsos | 15–18 Dec 2023 | 1,052 | 47 | 22 | 18 | 19 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 25 | [13] | |
| Jimmy Dijk succeeds Lilian Marijnissen as SP leader [14] | ||||||||||||||||||||
| I&O Research | 8–11 Dec 2023 | 2,952 | 43 | 23 | 16 | 20 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 20 | [15] | |
| Peil.nl | 1–2 Dec 2023 | – | 42 | 22 | 16 | 19 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 20 | [16] | |
| 2023 election | 22 Nov 2023 | – | 37 | 25 | 24 | 20 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 | ||
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | PVV | GL–PvdA | VVD | NSC | D66 | BBB | CDA | SP | Denk | PvdD | FvD | SGP | CU | Volt | JA21 | Others | Lead | Ref | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PvdA | GL | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Ipsos | 22–25 Mar 2024 | 1,016 | 31.1% | 15.6% | 12.6% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 15.5% | [17] | |
| Ipsos | 23–26 Feb 2024 | 1,022 | 31.1% | 15.9% | 12.4% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 15.2% | [18] | |
| I&O Research | 9–12 Feb 2024 | 2,752 | 31.0% | 16.5% | 11.1% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 14.5% | [7] | |
| Ipsos | 26–29 Jan 2024 | 1,025 | 28.4% | 16.0% | 12.2% | 11.9% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 12.4% | [19] | |
| Ipsos | 15–18 Dec 2023 | 1,052 | 29.8% | 13.8% | 11.5% | 12.4% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 16.0% | [20] | |
| I&O Research | 8–11 Dec 2023 | 2,952 | 27.4% | 14.6% | 10.4% | 12.5% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 12.8% | [7] | |
| 2023 election | 22 Nov 2023 | – | 23.49% | 15.75% | 15.14% | 12.88% | 6.29% | 4.65% | 3.31% | 3.15% | 2.37% | 2.25% | 2.23% | 2.08% | 2.04% | 1.71% | 0.68% | 1.88% | 7.74% | ||
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