Next Dutch general election

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Next Dutch general election
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←  2023 By 15 March 2028
All 150 seats in the House of Representatives
76 seats needed for a majority
PartyLeaderCurrent seats
PVV Geert Wilders 37
GL/PvdA Frans Timmermans 25
VVD Dilan Yeşilgöz 24
NSC Pieter Omtzigt 20
D66 Rob Jetten 9
BBB Caroline van der Plas 7
CDA Henri Bontenbal 5
SP Jimmy Dijk 5
Denk Stephan van Baarle 3
PvdD Esther Ouwehand 3
FvD Thierry Baudet 3
SGP Chris Stoffer 3
CU Mirjam Bikker 3
Volt Laurens Dassen 2
JA21 Joost Eerdmans 1
Incumbent cabinet
Schoof cabinet
PVV–VVD–NSC–BBB

General elections are scheduled to be held in the Netherlands in March 2028 to elect members of the House of Representatives, although they may be held at an earlier date if snap elections are called.

Contents

Background

The 2023 Dutch general election resulted in losses for all parties in the fourth Rutte cabinet. Party for Freedom (PVV) became the largest party in the House of Representaties for the first time and then formed a coalition with People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), New Social Contract (NSC) and Farmer–Citizen Movement (BBB). The Schoof cabinet with the independent Dick Schoof as prime minister was sworn in on 2 July 2024.

Electoral system

Pursuant to articles C.1, C.2 and C.3 of the electoral law, elections for the House of Representatives take place every four years in March, unless a snap election is called. The 150 members of the House of Representatives are elected by semi-open list proportional representation. The number of seats per list is determined using the D'Hondt method. A list must receive a number of votes equal to or exceeding the Hare quota (1 full seat) in order to qualify for seat distribution, meaning there is an electoral threshold of 0.67%. [1] Voters have the option to cast a preferential vote. The seats won by a list are first allocated to the candidates who, in preferential votes, have received at least 25% of the Hare quota (effectively ¼ of a seat or 0.17% of the total votes), regardless of their placement on the electoral list. If multiple candidates from a list pass this threshold, their ordering is determined based on the number of votes received. Any remaining seats are allocated to candidates according to their position on the electoral list. [2] [3]

Opinion polls

Graphical summary

The averages in the graphs below were constructed using polls listed below conducted by the four major Dutch pollsters. The trendlines show local regressions representing seat totals (not vote percentages).

Opinion polls NL 2023-2027.svg

Seats

There are 150 seats in total, 76 seats are needed for a majority. Parties are denoted with a dash if no indication is given of their level in the polls.

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size		 PVV GL–PvdA VVD NSC D66 BBB CDA SP Denk PvdD FvD SGP CU Volt JA21 LeadRef
Peil.nl14 Dec 2024–3525203116157455444210 [4]
Ipsos I&O6–9 Dec 20241,9253723223135147473334214 [5]
Verian22–25 Nov 20241,5514126223115137353343115 [6]
Peil.nl23 Nov 2024–3825193117146445444213 [7]
Ipsos I&O9–11 Nov 20242,0203826223125128473333112 [8]
Peil.nl9 Nov 2024–3825194117136445444213 [9]
Verian25–28 Oct 20241,6043924234107126473343115 [10]
Ipsos I&O18–21 Oct 20242,1433825214115117384344213 [11]
Peil.nl12 Oct 2024–3726204117136444444211 [12]
Peil.nl28 Sep 2024–4026195117125444444114 [13]
Ipsos I&O20–23 Sep 20241,9504125186105115474345216 [14]
Verian20–23 Sep 20241,607412723397106354344114 [15]
Ipsos I&O13–16 Sep 20242,2084224207115106365244118 [16]
Peil.nl14 Sep 20245,000+3826207117116443444112 [17]
Verian23–26 Aug 20241,594392723911687443333012 [18]
Ipsos26–29 Jul 20241,0164027211110893453323113 [19]
Peil.nl5–6 Jul 2024–3825198118116443444113 [20]
2 Jul 2024The Schoof cabinet is sworn in
Peil.nl28–29 Jun 2024–4126178108116443434115 [21]
Ipsos21–24 Jun 20241,0174427201212663353323117 [22]
I&O Research14–17 Jun 20241,979422718711795373434015 [23]
6 Jun 2024 2024 European Parliament election in the Netherlands
Peil.nl5–6 Jun 2024–4325198108105344334118 [24]
Peil.nl31 May – 1 Jun 2024–4225197108106345334117 [25]
Ipsos24–27 May 20242,0484824191110763363333124 [26]
I&O Research17–21 May 20242,141462617810775353444120 [27]
Peil.nl17–18 May 2024–4525187108106344333120 [28]
I&O Research9–12 May 20241,839472618810675253444121 [29]
Peil.nl3–4 May 2024–462517810897334333121 [30]
Ipsos26–29 Apr 20241,0114523201111854454432122 [31]
Peil.nl19 Apr 20248,500502515810797333333125 [32]
Ipsos22–25 Mar 20241,0164924201110664343332225 [33]
Peil.nl22 Mar 2024–492515910797333333124 [34]
Peil.nl8 Mar 2024–4925151010797333332124 [34]
Ipsos23–26 Feb 20241,0224925191111863443321124 [35]
I&O Research9–12 Feb 20242,75249251799775253434124 [36]
Peil.nl9 Feb 20246,0005225131110886333332027 [37]
Peil.nl2–3 Feb 20244,500+5025131510776333332025 [38]
Ipsos26–29 Jan 20241,0254525191811653343322120 [39]
Peil.nl19–20 Jan 20245,500+4923121710966333333026 [40]
Peil.nl22 Dec 2023–4822131811965333333026 [41]
Ipsos15–18 Dec 20231,052472218199843453332025 [42]
13 Dec 2023 Jimmy Dijk succeeds Lilian Marijnissen as SP leader [43]
I&O Research8–11 Dec 20232,9524323162010855253334020 [44]
Peil.nl1–2 Dec 2023–42221619111065333333120 [45]
2023 election 22 Nov 2023–372524209755333332112

Vote share

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size		 PVV GL–PvdA VVD NSC D66 BBB CDA SP Denk PvdD FvD SGP CU Volt JA21 OthersLeadRef
Ipsos I&O6–9 Dec 20241,92523.2%14.2%14.1%2.1%8.7%3.3%8.7%4.5%2.5%4.9%2.1%2.1%2.3%2.8%1.5%–9.0% [5]
Ipsos I&O9–11 Nov 20242,02023.7%16.2%13.9%2.3%7.6%3.7%7.3%5.2%2.7%4.8%2.3%2.2%2.4%2.2%0.8%–7.5% [46]
Ipsos I&O18–21 Oct 20242,14324.8%16.7%13.5%2.7%7.3%3.6%7.1%4.8%2.4%5.2%2.9%2.1%2.9%2.6%1.4%–8.1% [11]
Ipsos I&O20–23 Sep 20241,95025.9%16.1%11.8%4.0%6.9%3.8%7.4%3.8%2.6%5.0%3.0%2.3%2.5%3.4%1.4%–9.8% [14]
Ipsos I&O13–16 Sep 20242,20827.0%15.7%13.2%4.4%7.4%3.8%6.2%4.4%2.1%4.3%3.1%1.8%2.8%3.0%0.7%–11.3% [16]
Ipsos26–29 Jul 20241,01625.8%17.3%13.4%7.3%6.5%5.2%5.7%2.2%2.7%3.6%2.3%2.2%1.8%2.2%0.8%0.9%8.5% [47]
Ipsos21–24 Jun 20241,01727.7%17.3%13.1%7.7%7.8%3.8%4.4%2.5%2.3%3.2%2.3%2.3%1.8%1.9%1.2%0.7%10.4% [48]
I&O Research14–17 Jun 20241,97927.3%17.6%12.0%4.6%7.4%4.8%6.3%3.2%1.9%4.5%2.0%2.6%2.5%2.7%0.6%0.6%9.7% [23]
Peil.nl5–6 Jun 2024–26.7%16.0%12.3%5.2%6.6%5.3%6.6%3.4%2.2%3.2%2.8%2.4%2.0%2.7%1.0%1.6%10.7% [49]
Ipsos24–27 May 20242,04830.5%15.2%12.1%7.2%6.8%5.0%4.1%2.4%2.4%4.2%2.4%2.2%1.9%2.0%0.9%0.6%15.3% [50]
I&O Research17–21 May 20242,14129.6%16.6%11.5%5.7%6.7%4.6%4.8%3.5%2.0%3.3%2.2%2.8%2.7%2.8%0.8%0.3%14.0% [27]
I&O Research9–12 May 20241,83930.0%16.7%11.8%5.1%6.4%4.1%4.9%3.6%1.8%3.7%2.5%2.6%2.6%3.1%0.8%0.3%14.5% [29]
Ipsos26–29 Apr 20241,01128.7%14.7%12.7%7.4%6.9%5.5%3.6%2.9%2.8%3.6%2.8%2.8%1.9%1.6%1.2%0.9%14.0% [51]
Ipsos22–25 Mar 20241,01631.1%15.6%12.6%7.0%6.6%4.2%4.1%2.8%2.3%3.1%2.3%2.1%2.3%1.7%1.3%0.8%15.5% [52]
Ipsos23–26 Feb 20241,02231.1%15.9%12.4%7.0%7.0%5.4%4.3%2.2%3.1%2.9%2.1%2.4%1.5%1.1%0.8%0.6%15.2% [53]
I&O Research9–12 Feb 20242,75231.0%16.5%11.1%6.3%6.3%4.5%4.5%3.2%1.8%3.2%2.2%2.6%2.5%3.0%0.7%0.6%14.5% [36]
Ipsos26–29 Jan 20241,02528.4%16.0%12.2%11.9%6.9%4.2%3.4%2.4%2.5%3.0%2.1%2.2%1.7%1.7%0.9%0.5%12.4% [54]
Ipsos15–18 Dec 20231,05229.8%13.8%11.5%12.4%6.1%5.1%2.6%2.5%3.1%3.3%1.9%2.3%1.9%1.8%0.6%1.3%16.0% [55]
I&O Research8–11 Dec 20232,95227.4%14.6%10.4%12.5%6.6%5.5%3.4%3.6%1.8%3.3%2.2%2.3%2.2%2.9%0.6%0.7%12.8% [36]
2023 election 22 Nov 2023–23.49%15.75%15.14%12.88%6.29%4.65%3.31%3.15%2.37%2.25%2.23%2.08%2.04%1.71%0.68%1.88%7.74%

Notes

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    References

    1. ↑ "Zetelverdeling over partijen". Kiesraad (in Dutch). 22 April 2016. Archived from the original on 9 July 2023. Retrieved 9 July 2023.
    2. ↑ Nederland, Parlementsverkiezingen, 15 maart 2017: Eindrapport (Report). OSCE/ODIHR. 7 June 2017. Archived from the original on 24 October 2020. Retrieved 28 October 2017.
    3. ↑ "Zetelverdeling over kandidaten". Kiesraad (in Dutch). 22 April 2016. Archived from the original on 9 July 2023. Retrieved 9 July 2023.
    4. ↑ Hond, Maurice de (15 December 2024). "Eerste peiling na TK2023 met PVV op verlies" [First poll after 2023 general election with PVV losing]. maurice.nl (in Dutch). Retrieved 15 December 2024.
    5. 1 2 Kanne, Peter; Koppel, Maartje van de; Schelde, Asher van der (11 December 2024). "Ipsos I&O zetelpeiling" [Ipsos I&O seat poll](PDF). Ipsos I&O (in Dutch). Retrieved 14 December 2024.
    6. ↑ Kester, Jeroen (26 November 2024). "Vertrouwen in kabinet-Schoof op laagste punt sinds aantreden, coalitie op 71 zetels in zetelpeiling" [Confidence in the Schoof cabinet at its lowest point since taking office, coalition at 71 seats in seat poll]. EenVandaag (in Dutch). Archived from the original on 26 November 2024. Retrieved 27 November 2024.
    7. ↑ Hond, Maurice de (24 November 2024). "Eén jaar na de verkiezingen" [One year after the election]. maurice.nl (in Dutch). Retrieved 24 November 2024.
    8. ↑ Kanne, Peter; Schelde, Asher van der (13 November 2024). "Ontevreden maar honkvaste kiezers op rechts en links" [Dissatisfied but loyal voters on the right and left]. Ipsos I&O (in Dutch). Retrieved 13 November 2024.
    9. ↑ Hond, Maurice de (10 November 2024). "Ook bij vertrouwenscijfers zien we toenemende polarisatie" [We also see increasing polarization in confidence figures]. maurice.nl (in Dutch). Retrieved 10 November 2024.
    10. ↑ Lubbe, Rozemarijn (29 October 2024). "Iets minder vertrouwen in Geert Wilders na asieldeal kabinet, weinig verschuivingen in zetelpeiling" [Slightly less confidence in Geert Wilders after the cabinet's asylum deal, few shifts in seat polls]. EenVandaag (in Dutch). Retrieved 29 October 2024.
    11. 1 2 Heck, Sjoerd van; Kanne, Peter; Koppel, Maartje van de; Schelde, Asher van der (23 October 2024). "Ipsos I&O politieke peiling" [Ipsos I&O political poll](PDF). Ipsos I&O (in Dutch). Retrieved 25 October 2024.
    12. ↑ Hond, Maurice de (13 October 2024). "Electorale dynamiek/dynamiet" [Electoral dynamics/dynamite]. maurice.nl (in Dutch). Retrieved 13 October 2024.
    13. ↑ Hond, Maurice de (28 September 2024). "Electorale patstelling na Algemene Beschouwingen" [Electoral stalemate after General Considerations]. maurice.nl (in Dutch). Retrieved 30 September 2024.
    14. 1 2 Heck, Sjoerd van; Kanne, Peter; Koppel, Maartje van de; Schelde, Asher van der (27 September 2024). "Ipsos I&O politieke peiling" [Ipsos I&O political poll](PDF). Ipsos I&O (in Dutch). Retrieved 27 September 2024.
    15. ↑ "NSC verliest fors in zetelpeiling, veel kiezers willen andere rol voor Pieter Omtzigt". EenVandaag (in Dutch). 24 September 2024. Retrieved 24 September 2024.
    16. 1 2 "Afnemend enthousiasme kabinet Schoof heeft nog geen electorale consequenties" [Decreasing enthusiasm in cabinet Schoof has no electoral consequences yet]. Ipsos I&O. 17 September 2024.
    17. ↑ Hond, Maurice de (15 September 2024). "Oordeel over regering na het regeerprogamma" [Judgement over government after government program]. maurice.nl (in Dutch). Retrieved 15 September 2024.
    18. ↑ Lubbe, Rozemarijn (27 August 2024). "Coalitie op 77 zetels in nieuwe zetelpeiling, verlies komt vooral door teleurstelling in NSC" [Coalition at 77 seats in new seat poll, loss results mostly from disappointment with NSC]. EenVandaag.
    19. ↑ Lubbe, Rozemarijn (30 July 2024). "PVV daalt verder in zetelpeiling na installatie van het nieuwe kabinet, CDA wint" [PVV drops further in seat poll after installation of new cabinet, CDA wins]. EenVandaag.
    20. ↑ Hond, Maurice de. "Na het spraakmakende debat over de regeringsverklaring – Peilingen" (in Dutch). Retrieved 6 July 2024.
    21. ↑ Hond, Maurice de (29 June 2024). "De peiling voor het bordes". Peil.nl. Wekelijkse peiling zetelverdeling.
    22. ↑ Kester, Jeroen (25 June 2024). "PVV verliest in nieuwe zetelpeiling na bekendmaking ministers, GroenLinks-PvdA in de plus". EenVandaag.
    23. 1 2 Kanne, Peter (22 June 2024). "Enthousiasme over nieuw kabinet afgenomen". Ipsos I&O.
    24. ↑ Hond, Maurice de (8 June 2024). "Peiling Tweede Kamerzetels: PVV 43, PvdA-GroenLinks 25". Peil.nl. Wekelijkse peiling zetelverdeling.
    25. ↑ Hond, Maurice de (1 June 2024). "Reactie op Schoof als Premier". Peil.nl. Wekelijkse peiling zetelverdeling.
    26. ↑ "PVV wint na hoofdlijnenakkoord in zetelpeiling, geen effect bij andere partijen". EenVandaag. 28 May 2024.
    27. 1 2 "Kiezers voorzichtig hoopvol over nieuw kabinet". Ipsos I&O. 23 May 2024.
    28. ↑ Hond, Maurice de (18 May 2024). "De electorale reacties op het hoofdlijnen-akkoord". Peil.nl. Wekelijkse peiling zetelverdeling.
    29. 1 2 "Weinig vertrouwen in welslagen formatie". Ipsos I&O. 15 May 2024.
    30. ↑ Hond, Maurice de (4 May 2024). "Winst PVV neemt iets af". Peil.nl. Wekelijkse peiling zetelverdeling.
    31. ↑ "Politieke barometer week 18". Ipsos. 30 April 2024.
    32. ↑ Hond, Maurice de (21 April 2024). "Electorale formatie obstipatie". Peil.nl. Wekelijkse peiling zetelverdeling.
    33. ↑ "Kiezers formerende partijen oneens over financiën, NSC weet verloren stemmers niet terug te halen in nieuwe zetelpeiling". EenVandaag. 26 March 2024.
    34. 1 2 Hond, Maurice de (23 March 2024). "Twee derde hoopt dat formatie succesvol verloopt".
    35. ↑ "NSC met 11 zetels op dieptepunt in zetelpeiling, kiezers willen dat Omtzigt alsnog meewerkt aan rechtse coalitie". EenVandaag. 27 February 2024.
    36. 1 2 3 Kanne, Peter; Koppel, Maartje van de; Schelde, Asher van der (13 February 2024). "Politieke peiling februari 2024" (PDF). Ipsos I&O.
    37. ↑ Hond, Maurice de (11 February 2024). "NSC en Omtzigt zakken fors terug na breuk".
    38. ↑ Hond, Maurice de (3 February 2024). "PVV 50 zetels, NSC zakt langzaam weg".
    39. ↑ "Helft vindt dat formatie te traag gaat, PVV blijft ondertussen met afstand grootste partij in zetelpeiling". EenVandaag. 30 January 2024.
    40. ↑ Hond, Maurice de (20 January 2024). "Historische peiling: PVV 4 keer zo groot als de VVD".
    41. ↑ Hond, Maurice de. "Recordscores PVV en VVD – Peilingen".
    42. ↑ "PVV stijgt verder door naar historische 47 zetels in nieuwe zetelpeiling, VVD hard onderuit". EenVandaag. 19 December 2023.
    43. ↑ "Jimmy Dijk succeeds Lilian Marijnissen as SP leader". NU.nl (in Dutch). 13 December 2023. Retrieved 14 December 2023.
    44. ↑ "I&O-zetelpeiling: groei PVV zet door". I&O Research. 14 December 2023.
    45. ↑ "Enorme electorale schommelingen na de verkiezingen". 2 December 2023.
    46. ↑ Heck, Sjoerd van; Kanne, Peter; Koppel, Maartje van de; Schelde, Asher van der (13 November 2024). "Ipsos I&O politieke peiling" [Ipsos I&O political poll](PDF). Ipsos I&O (in Dutch). Retrieved 13 November 2024.
    47. ↑ "Politieke barometer week 31". Ipsos. 31 July 2024.
    48. ↑ "Politieke barometer week 26". Ipsos. 27 June 2024.
    49. ↑ Hond, Maurice de (8 June 2024). "Peiling Tweede Kamerzetels: PVV 43, PvdA-GroenLinks 25". Peil.nl. Wekelijkse peiling zetelverdeling.
    50. ↑ "Politieke barometer week 22". Ipsos. 30 May 2024.
    51. ↑ "Politieke barometer week 18". Ipsos. 30 April 2024.
    52. ↑ "Politieke barometer week 13". Ipsos. 27 March 2024.
    53. ↑ "Politieke barometer week 9". Ipsos. 28 February 2024.
    54. ↑ "Politieke barometer week 5". Ipsos. 31 January 2024.
    55. ↑ "Politieke barometer week 51". Ipsos. 21 December 2023.
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