2025 Dutch general election

Last updated

2025 Dutch general election
Flag of the Netherlands.svg
  2023 29 October 20252029 

All 150 seats in the House of Representatives
76 seats needed for a majority
PartyLeaderCurrent seats
PVV Geert Wilders 37
GL/PvdA Frans Timmermans 25
VVD Dilan Yeşilgöz 24
NSC Eddy van Hijum 19
D66 Rob Jetten 9
BBB Caroline van der Plas 8
CDA Henri Bontenbal 5
SP Jimmy Dijk 5
Denk Stephan van Baarle 3
PvdD Esther Ouwehand 3
FvD Lidewij de Vos 3
SGP Chris Stoffer 3
CU Mirjam Bikker 3
Volt Laurens Dassen 2
JA21 Joost Eerdmans 1
2025 Dutch general election.svg
Municipal result
Incumbent cabinet
Schoof cabinet
VVDBBB

Early general elections will be held in the Netherlands on 29 October 2025 to elect the members of the House of Representatives. [1] The elections had been expected to be held in 2028, but a snap election was called after the Schoof cabinet collapsed due to the Party for Freedom (PVV) withdrawing from the coalition.

Contents

Background

The 2023 Dutch general election resulted in losses for all parties in the fourth Rutte cabinet. The Party for Freedom (PVV) became the largest party in the House of Representatives for the first time and then formed a coalition with the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), New Social Contract (NSC) and the Farmer–Citizen Movement (BBB). The Schoof cabinet with the independent Dick Schoof as prime minister was sworn in on 2 July 2024. On 3 June 2025, PVV left the coalition due to disagreements over asylum policy, [2] leading to Schoof submitting the resignation of the cabinet. [3]

A snap election was called for 29 October 2025; [4] originally, the next general election was scheduled for 15 March 2028. [5] On 23 August 2025, NSC also left the coalition, citing disagreements over sanctions against Israel for the Gaza war. [6] On 12 June 2025, the Labour Party and GroenLinks agreed to participate with one shared candidate list again and to merge their parties in 2026. [7]

Compared to the 2023 election, three incumbent parliamentary parties have had a change in their lead candidate. Jimmy Dijk replaced Lilian Marijnissen as Socialist Party (SP) leader within a month after the election, [8] Thierry Baudet stepped down for Lidewij de Vos to be the lead candidate of Forum for Democracy (FvD), [9] and Eddy van Hijum was chosen as lead candidate of NSC after Pieter Omtzigt and Nicolien van Vroonhoven stepped down. [10]

Electoral system

Pursuant to articles C.1, C.2 and C.3 of the electoral law, elections for the House of Representatives take place every four years in March, unless a snap election is called. The 150 members of the House of Representatives are elected through semi-open lists under proportional representation in a single nationwide constituency. The number of seats per list is determined using the D'Hondt method. A list must receive a number of votes equal to or exceeding the Hare quota (1 full seat) in order to qualify for seat distribution, meaning there is an electoral threshold of 0.67%. [11]

Voters have the option to cast a preferential vote. The seats won by a list are first allocated to the candidates who, in preferential votes, have received at least 25% of the Hare quota (effectively ¼ of a seat or 0.17% of the total votes), regardless of their placement on the electoral list. If multiple candidates from a list pass this threshold, their ordering is determined based on the number of votes received. Any remaining seats are allocated to candidates according to their position on the electoral list. [12] [13]

Parties and lead candidates

ListPartyLead candidateIdeology2023 resultDistricts
1 Party for Freedom PVV Geert Wilders Nationalism, right-wing populism23.49% (37 seats)20
2 GroenLinks–PvdA GL/PvdA Frans Timmermans Social democracy, green politics15.75% (25 seats)20
3 People's Party for Freedom and Democracy VVD Dilan Yeşilgöz Conservative liberalism15.24% (24 seats)20
4 New Social Contract NSC Eddy van Hijum Christian democracy12.88% (20 seats)20
5 Democrats 66 D66 Rob Jetten Social liberalism6.29% (9 seats)20
6 Farmer–Citizen Movement BBB Caroline van der Plas Agrarianism, right-wing populism, conservatism4.65% (7 seats)20
7 Christian Democratic Appeal CDA Henri Bontenbal Christian democracy, conservatism3.31% (5 seats)20
8 Socialist Party SP Jimmy Dijk Democratic socialism, left-wing populism, cultural conservatism3.15% (5 seats)20
9 Denk Denk Stephan van Baarle Minority interests, social conservatism2.37% (3 seats)20
10 Party for the Animals PvdD Esther Ouwehand Animal rights advocacy, environmentalism2.25% (3 seats)20
11 Forum for Democracy FVD Lidewij de Vos National conservatism, right-wing populism2.23% (3 seats)20
12 Reformed Political Party SGP Chris Stoffer Christian right, social conservatism2.08% (3 seats)20
13 Christian Union CU Mirjam Bikker Christian democracy2.04% (3 seats)20
14 Volt Netherlands Volt Laurens Dassen Social liberalism, European federalism1.71% (2 seats)20
15 JA21 JA21 Joost Eerdmans Conservative liberalism, right-wing populism0.68% (1 seat)20
16 Peace for Animals VvD Pascale Plusquin Animal rights advocacy, pacifism20
17 Interest of the Netherlands BVNL Wybren van Haga Classical liberalism, right-wing populism0.51% (0 seats)20
18 Bij1 BIJ1 Tofik Dibi Socialism, anti-racism0.42% (0 seats)20
19 Libertarian Party LP Tom van Lamoen Libertarianism0.04% (0 seats)19
20 50Plus 50+ Jan Struijs Pensioner's interests0.49% (0 seats)19
21 Pirate Party PPNL Matthijs Pontier Pirate politics0.09% (0 seats)18
22 Frisian National Party FNP Aant Jelle Soepboer Regionalism, Frisian interests16
23 Free AllianceVV Bart Burggraaf Classical liberalism13
24 De LinieDL Gerard van Hooft Right-wing populism10
25 Netherlands with a Plan NLPLAN Kok Kuen Chan Participatory democracy0.05% (0 seats)9
26 EllectELLECT Joana Amoah Abolitionism5
27 Party for the Rule of LawPVDR Danielle Tulp Rule of law advocacy2

Campaign

According to polls, the housing market, immigration, and healthcare were the main topics in the months prior to the election. [14] [15] [16] GroenLinks–PvdA (GL/PvdA), Democrats 66 (D66), the Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA), the Socialist Party (SP), the Christian Union (CU), and Volt included the reduction of the mortgage interest deduction in their party manifestos. That was opposed by the Party for Freedom (PVV), the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), New Social Contract (NSC), the Farmer–Citizen Movement (BBB), and Forum for Democracy (FvD). [17]

According to the Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, GL/PvdA and BBB wanted to keep the halving of the deductible for healthcare, whereas VVD, CDA, Volt, and JA21 wanted to increase it to € 440. GL/PvdA, D66, CU, and Volt wanted more wealth tax and profit tax, in contrast to VVD, BBB, and JA21, all of which did not want that and wanted to cut back on development aid. VVD, NSC, and the Reformed Political Party (SGP) did not want additional measures to reach climate goals, and BBB and JA21 wanted to emit more CO2. [18]

Wilders attending a protest against an asylum seeker center in Helmond in July 2025 Geert Wilders (2025) (2).jpg
Wilders attending a protest against an asylum seeker center in Helmond in July 2025

PVV leader Geert Wilders has attended local protests against asylum seeker centers in Helmond and Zwolle, urging municipalities to defy the Dispersal Act, and making these protests a central part of his election campaign. [19] This approach drew criticism from local politicians and the Association of Netherlands Municipalities, who accused Wilders of improper interference in local politics and of inciting unnecessary fear and division. [20] In August 2025, a discrimination hotline and Muslim organisations filed complaints against Wilders over a tweet comparing a young blonde woman with PVV and an older woman wearing a headscarf with the Labour Party (PvdA). The tweet drew a record amount of complaints to the hotline and was compared to Nazi propaganda. [21]

A ban against political advertisement on platforms of Meta started on 6 October 2025. In the month leading up to the ban, FvD and D66 spent the most money on advertisements on Facebook and Instagram. [22] On 10 October, Wilders was named as a target of a terror cell, for which three men were arrested a day earlier. The National Coordinator for Security and Counterterrorism did not expect any remaining threat; however, citing bad feelings, Wilders suspended his campaign. [23] [24] On 15 October, he resumed his campaign. [25]

Possible coalitions

Multiple parties, including GL/PvdA, VVD, and CDA, stated they would not want to form a government with PVV. Wilders stated he wanted to govern, possibly in a minority government. [26] GL/PvdA and VVD both stated they would rather not govern with each other but did not rule out working together in a government. [27] VVD preferred a centre-right coalition that included D66, BBB, CDA, and JA21, while D66 opposed any right-wing coalition and instead favored a national unity government, involving both left-wing and right-wing parties. [28] JA21 did not rule out any party to govern with, although party leader Joost Eerdmans stated he did not see JA21 in a cabinet with GL/PvdA or D66. [29]

Debates

Dutch general election debates, 2025 [30]
DateTitle or organizerChannel
  •  P  Present
  •  S  Substitute present
  •  A  Absent
  •  I  Invited
  •  NI  Not invited
Ref.
Van Baarle
10 October NOS NPO Radio 1 PPPAPPPPPPPPPAP [31] [32]
12 October WNL op Zondag [a] NPO 1 NINISNINISNISNININISNISS [33]
RTL Nieuws RTL 4 NINIPNINININIPNININIPNIAP [34] [35]
19 October RTL Tonight  [ nl ]NINIPNIPPNIPNININIPNIAP [36]
23 OctoberHet Debat van Nederland SBS6 NINIPNINININININININIPNIPP [37] [38]
25 OctoberDebat van het Zuiden Omroep Brabant, Omroep Zeeland and L1 NINIPNIPPNIPNININIPNIPP [39] [40] [41]
26 October NOS Jeugdjournaal NPO 3 NINIPNININIPPNININIPNIPP [42]
27 October EenVandaag NPO 1 NINIININIINIINININIINIII [43]
28 October NOS IINIININININIINIINIININI [42]
NINIINIIIIINIINIINIII


Opinion polls

After rising in the polls in the first months after the 2023 Dutch general election, the Party for Freedom (PVV) has declined from March 2024 onwards; however, it has continued to lead. GroenLinks–PvdA (GL/PvdA) has consistently polled in second place, between 22 and 30 seats. The Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) have consistently risen in the polls, at first at the expense of New Social Contract (NSC) and later of the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD). [44] [45] In the final months before the election, JA21 also rose significantly in the polls.

Opinion polls NL 2023-2025.svg

Notes

  1. Debate with the parties' second-placed candidates: Sebastiaan Stöteler (PVV), Esmah Lahlah (GL/PvdA), Eelco Heinen (VVD), Jan Paternotte (D66), Hanneke Steen (CDA), and Annabel Nanninga (JA21).

References

  1. "Verkiezingen definitief op 29 oktober, kosten 105 miljoen euro". Algemeen Dagblad. 6 June 2025.
  2. Ionta, Nicoletta (3 June 2025). "Dutch government coalition collapses over migration clash". Euractiv . Archived from the original on 3 June 2025. Retrieved 3 June 2025.
  3. "Kabinet gevallen, alle PVV-bewindslieden stappen op" [Cabinet collapsed, all PVV ministers resign]. NOS (in Dutch). 3 June 2025.
  4. "The Netherlands to hold election on October 29 after government collapse". Al Jazeera. Retrieved 8 June 2025.
  5. Hermenet, Coen (4 June 2025). "Hoe verder na val kabinet-Schoof?" [How to continue after the collapse of the Schoof cabinet?]. Reformatorisch Dagblad (in Dutch). Retrieved 6 June 2025.
  6. Skopeliti, Clea (23 August 2025). "Dutch foreign minister quits over failure to secure sanctions against Israel". The Guardian . Retrieved 7 September 2025.
  7. Corder, Mike (12 June 2025). "Dutch center-left parties unite to challenge the right in a historic merger". AP News . Retrieved 12 June 2025.
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  9. "De 'likeable' Lidewij de Vos moet Forum voor Democratie aan 'twaalf zetels' helpen" [The "likeable" Lidewij de Vos must help Forum for Democracy gain "twelve seats"]. NRC (in Dutch). 31 August 2025. Retrieved 7 September 2025.
  10. "Definitieve kandidatenlijst NSC: Eddy van Hijum definitief lijsttrekker, Nicolien van Vroonhoven niet meer verkiesbaar" [Final NSC candidate list: Eddy van Hijum definitively leading the list, Nicolien van Vroonhoven no longer eligible]. New Social Contract (in Dutch). 1 September 2025. Retrieved 7 September 2025.
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  12. Nederland, Parlementsverkiezingen, 15 maart 2017: Eindrapport (Report). OSCE/ODIHR. 7 June 2017. Archived from the original on 24 October 2020. Retrieved 28 October 2017.
  13. "Zetelverdeling over kandidaten". Kiesraad (in Dutch). 22 April 2016. Archived from the original on 9 July 2023. Retrieved 9 July 2023.
  14. Fastenau, Jelle (7 July 2025). "Dit zijn volgens kiezers de belangrijkste verkiezingsthema's en de partijen waar ze dan aan denken" [These are the most important election themes according to voters and the parties they think of]. EenVandaag (in Dutch). Retrieved 10 September 2025.
  15. Nieuwkerk, Sander (19 July 2025). "Verkiezingen op komst: kiezer vindt wooncrisis belangrijkste thema" [Elections coming up: voters consider housing crisis the most important issue]. RTL (in Dutch). Retrieved 10 September 2025.
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  18. "Politieke partijen willen hogere defensiekosten betalen door te korten op zorg" [Political parties want to pay higher defense costs by cutting health care]. NOS (in Dutch). 10 October 2025. Retrieved 11 October 2025.
  19. "Zwolse gemeenteraad stemt ondanks bezoek Wilders voor komst azc" [Zwolle city council votes in favor of asylum seekers' center despite Wilders' visit]. NOS.nl (in Dutch). 7 July 2025. Archived from the original on 20 July 2025. Retrieved 18 July 2025.
  20. Klaassen, Niels (10 July 2025). "Wilders roept op om in verzet te komen tegen komst azc's: is dat strafbaar?" [Wilders calls for resistance to the arrival of asylum centers: is that punishable?] (in Dutch). Archived from the original on 11 July 2025. Retrieved 18 July 2025.
  21. "Discriminatie.nl en moslimorganisaties doen aangifte tegen Wilders om tweet" [Discrimination.nl and Muslim organizations file a complaint against Wilders for tweet]. NOS (in Dutch). 11 August 2025. Retrieved 10 September 2025.
  22. Jansen, Nina; Pruis, Anna (11 October 2025). "Politieke partijen gaven vlak voor verbod nog tienduizenden euro's uit op sociale media" [Political parties spent tens of thousands of euros on social media just before the ban]. NOS (in Dutch). Retrieved 11 October 2025.
  23. "PVV-leider Wilders schort campagne op vanwege dreiging Belgische terreurcel" [PVV leader Wilders suspends campaign due to threat from Belgian terrorist cell]. NOS (in Dutch). 10 October 2025. Retrieved 11 October 2025.
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  25. "Wilders voert weer campagne, doet mee aan debatten" [Wilders is campaigning again and participating in debates]. NOS (in Dutch). 15 October 2025. Retrieved 15 October 2025.
  26. "PVV-leider Wilders denkt aan minderheidskabinet, 'we willen regeren'" [PVV leader Wilders is considering a minority cabinet, 'we want to govern']. NOS (in Dutch). 5 September 2025. Retrieved 10 September 2025.
  27. "Jesse Klaver (GL-PvdA): 'Sta niet te springen om kabinet met VVD, Wilders niet de nieuwe premier'" [Jesse Klaver (GL-PvdA): 'Don't be eager to form a cabinet with the VVD; Wilders should not be the new prime minister']. NPO Radio 1 (in Dutch). 8 September 2025. Retrieved 10 September 2025.
  28. Soest, Hans van (5 September 2025). "D66-leider Jetten voelt niks voor rechts kabinet" [D66 leader Jetten is not in favor of a right-wing cabinet]. Algemeen Dagblad (in Dutch). Retrieved 9 October 2025.
  29. "Joost Eerdmans ziet JA21 niet met D66 en GroenLinks-PvdA in kabinet: 'Zij willen een heel andere kant op'" [Joost Eerdmans doesn't see JA21 joining forces with D66 and GroenLinks-PvdA in the cabinet: "They want to go in a completely different direction."]. Algemeen Dagblad (in Dutch). 7 October 2025. Retrieved 9 October 2025.
  30. "Alle politieke verkiezingsdebatten op een rij" [All political election debates laid out]. EW (in Dutch). 28 August 2025. Retrieved 21 September 2025.
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  33. "Speciale uitzending WNL Op Zondag HET WNL-DEBAT: DE RUNNERS-UP Het eerste tv-debat met de nummers 2. Alle grote partijen doen mee. Van PVV, CDA en GroenLinks/PvdA tot VVD, D66 en JA21. Zondag 12 oktober, 10 uur, NPO1 #wnlopzondag #nummer2" [Special broadcast of WNL On Sunday THE WNL DEBATE: THE RUNNERS-UP The first TV debate featuring the runners-up. All the major parties are participating. From the PVV, CDA, and GroenLinks/PvdA to the VVD, D66, and JA21. Sunday, October 12, 10 a.m., NPO1 #wnlopzondag #nummer2]. x.com (in Dutch). WNL. 1 October 2025. Retrieved 2 October 2025.
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  40. "Debat van het Zuiden" [Debate of the South]. L1 (in Dutch). 14 October 2025. Retrieved 14 October 2025.
  41. "Debat van het Zuiden" [Debate of the South]. Omroep Zeeland (in Dutch). 14 October 2025. Retrieved 14 October 2025.
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