Headquarters at Bezuidenhoutseweg 30 in The Hague |
The Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (Dutch : Centraal Planbureau, CPB, literal translation: Central Planning Bureau) is a part of the Ministry of Economic Affairs of the Netherlands. Its goal is to deliver economic analyses and forecasts. The CPB is an independent government agency founded at 15 September 1945 by Nobel laureate Jan Tinbergen. On 21 April 1947, it obtained its legal basis. It is located in The Hague, on Bezuidenhoutseweg.
The CPB sets its own research agenda, but it is open to requests for policy research from the Dutch government, Parliaments and political parties and ministries of the Netherlands. It also provides reports and advice for European Union initiatives. The CPB is financed by the Ministry of Economic Affairs, but it operates independently. This means it does have a stable income but also does not have to follow the ministry. This combination is the foundation for the unique status of the CPB. The director of the CPB is one of the government appointed members (Dutch: kroonleden) in the Social and Economic Council.
Twice a year, the CPB publishes a macroeconomic forecast called the "Central Economic Plan (CEP)" and the "Macroeconomic Explorations (MEV)". [1]
The CEP is published in March. It includes the forecast for all the major variables and the current policies. At this point in time, new policies are decided or changed and they have a chance to look at the coming economic situation. For this purpose, it updates the forecasts of the previous MEV about the effects of the policies. A provisional version of the CEP is supplied to the cabinet in January or February, which is used by the minister of finance for the expenditure targets.
The MEV is published in September simultaneously with the publication of government budgets for the following year. It includes forecast for all the major variables and the effects of the new policies since last year. A preliminary, confidential, draft is sent to the government in June. Some adjustments of expenditures and revenues between the draft and the final version can be made.
Before elections, the CPB is asked to analyze the election programmes of the major parties for the effects of proposed policies on the budget deficit, unemployment, inflation, income differentials, and so forth. [2] This makes a clear guide for voters because of the following advantages: [3]
It is also not uncommon to use the results of the CPB to defend attack or compare the different policies.
Parties voluntarily subject their programs to CPB analysis. However, after the elections of 1986, it became a custom that each major party asked the CPB to forecast the consequences of their election program. In general, the parties seem to worry more about being accused of not wanting to face the economic consequences of their proposals than showing negative results. In 2002, the party "List Pim Fortuyn" did not submit their elections platform, although it came in as second largest party. [1]
The CPB analyzes government budget proposals on its own initiative. The analysis is considered a key document when determining how successful a government is with it policies. The results of this analysis is the basis for the income and expenditure for the Ministry of Economic Affairs. Through the independent status of the CPB, it is in practice impossible for the Dutch government to use their own models and interpretations of statistics. This forces the government, regardless of who is in power, to stay within the given boundaries and lowers the chance of budget surprises. It also increases the credibility of the ministry estimates.
The CPB uses a suite of economic models to analyze economic effects of policies and the economy at large. Their current main model is SAFFIER II, next to this there are several small models which can be attached to SAFFIER II. [4]
The CPB models are regularly updated to reflect new theoretical insights and needs for outcomes. [5]
The CPB is a member of the EU Independent Fiscal Institutions Network set up by the EU in September 2015. In addition to the CPB, the Netherlands is also represented by the Council of State.
In 2011, the CPB conducted a study on the effects of the Euro for the Netherlands. The results were, among others, published in the book 'Europa in crisis' (Europe in crisis). One of the conclusions of the research was that the Euro had brought about a week's pay in benefits to the Dutch population (i.e. about 2% income). In an interview in De Telegraaf in May 2014, former director Coen Teulings stated that the study performed under his supervision should be taken with a grain of salt, adding that the economic advantages "aren't very clear". [6]
The directors of the bureau have been:
Beside the directors, other notable researchers of the institute have been:
The CPB is one of the three applied policy research institutes of the Government of the Netherlands, the other two being:
Jan Tinbergen was a Dutch economist who was awarded the first Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 1969, which he shared with Ragnar Frisch for having developed and applied dynamic models for the analysis of economic processes. He is widely considered to be one of the most influential economists of the 20th century and one of the founding fathers of econometrics.
Lawrence Robert Klein was an American economist. For his work in creating computer models to forecast economic trends in the field of econometrics in the Department of Economics at the University of Pennsylvania, he was awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 1980 specifically "for the creation of econometric models and their application to the analysis of economic fluctuations and economic policies." Due to his efforts, such models have become widespread among economists. Harvard University professor Martin Feldstein told the Wall Street Journal that Klein "was the first to create the statistical models that embodied Keynesian economics," tools still used by the Federal Reserve Bank and other central banks.
A macroeconomic model is an analytical tool designed to describe the operation of the problems of economy of a country or a region. These models are usually designed to examine the comparative statics and dynamics of aggregate quantities such as the total amount of goods and services produced, total income earned, the level of employment of productive resources, and the level of prices.
The polder model is a method of consensus decision-making, based on the Dutch version of consensus-based economic and social policymaking in the 1980s and 1990s. It gets its name from the Dutch word (polder) for tracts of land enclosed by dikes.
Gerrit Zalm is a retired Dutch politician of the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) and businessman.
In social sciences, especially economics, a stylized fact is a simplified presentation of an empirical finding. Stylized facts are broad tendencies that aim to summarize the data, offering essential truths while ignoring individual details. Stylized facts offer strong generalizations that are generally true for entire populations, even when the generalization may not be true for individual observations.
Dynamic scoring is a forecasting technique for government revenues, expenditures, and budget deficits that incorporates predictions about the behavior of people and organizations based on changes in fiscal policy, usually tax rates. Dynamic scoring depends on models of the behavior of economic agents which predict how they would react once the tax rate or other policy change goes into effect. This means the uncertainty induced in predictions is greater to the degree that the proposed policy is unlike current policy. Unfortunately, any such model depends heavily on judgment, and there is no evidence that it is more effective or accurate.
The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency is a Dutch research institute that advises the Dutch government on environmental policy and regional planning issues. Operating as an autonomous entity within the Dutch Government organization, specifically under the Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management. While primarily associated with the Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management, PBL's expertise is also sought by other government departments, including the Ministry of Economic Affairs, the Ministry of the Interior and Kingdom Relations, the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries, Food Security and Nature, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The research fields include sustainable development, energy and climate change, biodiversity, transport, land use, and air quality. It is one of three applied policy research institutes of the Dutch government, the other two being Centraal Planbureau (CPB), and The Netherlands Institute for Social Research (SCP). Since January 2023 Marko Hekkert is director of the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency.
A government budget is a projection of the government's revenues and expenditure for a particular period, often referred to as a financial or fiscal year, which may or may not correspond with the calendar year. Government revenues mostly include taxes while expenditures consist of government spending. A government budget is prepared by the Central government or other political entity. In most parliamentary systems, the budget is presented to the legislature and often requires approval of the legislature. The government implements economic policy through this budget and realizes its program priorities. Once the budget is approved, the use of funds from individual chapters is in the hands of government ministries and other institutions. Revenues of the state budget consist mainly of taxes, customs duties, fees, and other revenues. State budget expenditures cover the activities of the state, which are either given by law or the constitution. The budget in itself does not appropriate funds for government programs, hence the need for additional legislative measures. The word budget comes from the Old French brunette.
Henri (Hans) Theil was a Dutch econometrician and professor at the Netherlands School of Economics in Rotterdam, known for his contributions to the field of econometrics.
Public economics(or economics of the public sector) is the study of government policy through the lens of economic efficiency and equity. Public economics builds on the theory of welfare economics and is ultimately used as a tool to improve social welfare. Welfare can be defined in terms of well-being, prosperity, and overall state of being.
An economic impact analysis (EIA) examines the effect of an event on the economy in a specified area, ranging from a single neighborhood to the entire globe. It usually measures changes in business revenue, business profits, personal wages, and/or jobs. The economic event analyzed can include implementation of a new policy or project, or may simply be the presence of a business or organization. An economic impact analysis is commonly conducted when there is public concern about the potential impacts of a proposed project or policy.
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is a non-departmental public body funded by the UK Treasury that provides independent economic forecasts and independent analysis of the public finances.
The Federal Planning Bureau (FPB) is a Belgian independent public agency that carries out research and makes projections on economic, social and environmental policy issues. It also studies the integration of these policy issues within a context of sustainable development. On 25 November 2023, the Council of Ministers approved a draft royal decree appointing Baudouin Regout as the new Commissioner of the FPB. The Commissioner is assisted by the Deputy Commissioner, Saskia Weemaes.
Jan Sandee was a Dutch economist, consultant and Professor of Econometrics at the Netherlands School of Economics, Rotterdam, who headed the Econometric Institute from 1966 to 1971.
Willem Hendrik Somermeyer was a Dutch economist, Professor in Econometrics at the Erasmus University Rotterdam, and member of the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences, particularly known for his consumption-savings model.
Coenraad Nicolaas (Coen) Teulings is a Dutch economist and distinguished professor at Utrecht University. He was formerly professor of Economics at the University of Amsterdam and the University of Cambridge and former Director of the Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, as well as Chairman of Merifin Capital.
Wim Driehuis is a Dutch economist, Emeritus Professor Economics and Business at the University of Amsterdam.
Science and technology in the Netherlands has an extended history, producing many notable achievements and discoveries in the field. It is an important component in the economic and societal development of the Netherlands. The Dutch government is a driver of scientific and technological progress with science expenditure passing €4.5 billion every year.
The Netherlands Institute for Social Research is a Dutch interdepartmental scientific institute that carries out solicited and unsolicited social scientific research. The SCP reports to the government, the Senate and House of Representatives, the ministries and social and government organisations. The SCP is formally part of the Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sport. The SCP was established by Royal Decree on March 30, 1973. The Netherlands has two planning offices. The oldest is the Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB), which is mainly concerned with economic development. The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency focuses primarily on spatial planning and the sustainability and quality of the living environment.
Media related to Centraal Planbureau at Wikimedia Commons