2026 Berlin state election

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2026 Berlin state election
Flag of Berlin.svg
  2023 20262031 
List of members of the 20th Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (2027–2029) 
 First partySecond partyThird party
 
Party CDU SPD Greens
Last election52 seats, 28.2%34 seats, 18.4%34 seats, 18.4%

 Fourth partyFifth party
 
Party Left AfD
Last election22 seats, 12.2%17 seats, 9.1%

Government before election

Wegner senate
CDUSPD

Elected Government

TBD

The next election to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin is scheduled for 2026.

Contents

Background

In the 2023 Berlin repeat state election With 28% of votes, the opposition Christian Democratic Union (CDU) grew by over ten percentage points and emerged as the largest party by a wide margin, the first time it had done so since 1999. All three governing parties declined; the SPD suffered its worst result in over a century with 18.4%, and only barely remained ahead of the Greens by a margin of 53 votes. The Left also slipped to 12%. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) recorded a small upswing to 9%, while the Free Democratic Party (FDP) fell to 4.6% and lost all their seats. Overall, the incumbent government retained a reduced majority. The CDU claimed a mandate to govern given its first-place result, while mayor Franziska Giffey committed to remaining in government. The Left called for a renewal of the outgoing coalition. [1]

After various talks between parties, the SPD and CDU voted at the beginning of March to begin negotiations for a grand coalition. CDU leader Kai Wegner was approved as mayor on 27 April after three rounds of voting. [2] [3]

Electoral system

The Abgeordnetenhaus is elected via mixed-member proportional representation. 78 members are elected in single-member constituencies via first-past-the-post voting. 52 members are then allocated using compensatory proportional representation, distributed in each of Berlin's twelve boroughs. Voters have two votes: the "first vote" for candidates in single-member constituencies, and the "second vote" for party lists, which are used to fill the proportional seats. The minimum size of the Abgeordnetenhaus is 130 members, but if overhang seats are present, proportional leveling seats will be added to ensure proportionality. An electoral threshold of 5% of valid votes is applied to the Abgeordnetenhaus; parties that fall below this threshold are excluded from the Abgeordnetenhaus. However, parties which win at least one single-member constituency are exempt from the threshold and will be allocated seats proportionally, even if they fall below 5%. [4]

Opinion polls

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
CDU SPD Grüne Linke AfD FDP BSW OthersLead
Infratest dimap 14–18 Nov 20241,1792712206154797
INSA 1–7 Jul 20241,00026181571241268
European Parliament election 9 Jun 202417.613.219.67.311.64.38.717.72.0
Infratest dimap 18–22 Apr 20241,17427152010123677
INSA 22–29 Jan 20241,000291617101341112
Infratest dimap 12–16 Oct 20231,15929151910154810
INSA 18–26 Sep 20231,00026171810145108
Wahlkreisprognose 25 Jul2 Aug 20231,00024.51616.513.51649.58
INSA 27 Mar3 Apr 20231,0003018181195912
2023 state election 12 Feb 2023N/A28.218.418.412.29.14.69.09.8

West Berlin

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
CDU SPD Grüne Linke AfD FDP OthersLead
Infratest dimap 12–16 Oct 20233117208134711
2023 state election 12 Feb 202331.119.919.89.06.87.06.411.2

East Berlin

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
CDU Linke SPD Grüne AfD FDP OthersLead
Infratest dimap 12–16 Oct 202326121418173108
2023 state election 12 Feb 202324.316.616.416.412.23.710.40.2

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References

  1. "Berlin: Conservatives projected to win repeated vote". Deutsche Welle . 13 February 2023.
  2. "CDU board votes for coalition negotiations with SPD". Rundfunk Berlin-Brandenburg (in German). 2 March 2023.
  3. "Ex-insurance salesman elected unlikely mayor of Berlin". France 24. 27 April 2023. Retrieved 27 April 2023.
  4. "Elections". Berlin.de (in German). 19 January 2022. Retrieved 30 October 2022.

See also