Opinion polling for the next Serbian parliamentary election

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In the run-up to the next Serbian parliamentary election, various organisations carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions in Serbia. The results of such polls are displayed in this list. The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous election, held on 3 April 2022, to the present day. [1]

Contents

Graphical summary

Local regression chart of poll results from 3 April 2022 to present day Opinion polling for the 2023 Serbian parliamentary election.svg
Local regression chart of poll results from 3 April 2022 to present day

Poll results

2023

Polling firmDate of publishmentSample size SNS–led
coalition
SPSJS SPN NADA SDB Narodna OthersLead
SSP PSG DS Together SRCE NDB/ZLF EU [lower-alpha 1] NPS [lower-alpha 2] NDSS POKS Dveri SSZ
NSPM [2] 22 October1,00038.59.66.23.13.82.73.63.14.25.63.3 [lower-alpha 3] 16.3 [lower-alpha 4] 28.9
Faktor Plus [3] 13 October1,20044.510.88.11.11.51.22.02.42.35.94.011.01.73.5 [lower-alpha 5] 34.5
Stata [4] 13 October1,54636.67.08.64.33.83.57.73.13.93.418.1 [lower-alpha 6] 28.0
NSPM [5] 28 September1,00037.39.54.22.41.33.22.32.62.83.63.13.02.821.9 [lower-alpha 7] 27.7
Stata [6] 19 September1,58036.37.39.81.91.20.64.44.03.15.53.02.63.40.518.8 [lower-alpha 8] 26.5
Stata [7] [8] 28 July1,55837.88.09.66.04.73.73.62.63.12.118.8 [lower-alpha 9] 28.2
NSPM [9] 23 July1,10037.29.44.02.11.33.52.33.44.23.93.63.421.7 [lower-alpha 10] 27.8
NSPM [10] 2 June1,00036.28.43.82.61.63.01.84.34.61.34.03.63.521.3 [lower-alpha 11] 27.8
NSPM [11] 27 April1,00038.09.44.22.81.43.93.84.41.04.03.43.220.5 [lower-alpha 12] 28.6
Faktor Plus [12] 11 April ?45.510.76.91.21.82.42.03.04.54.04.52.511.0 [lower-alpha 13] 34.8
ŠSM [13] 5 April1,32942.88.54.52.21.93.92.93.25.21.74.53.12.613.0 [lower-alpha 14] 31.9
ŠSM [14] 22 February ?44.58.94.52.12.23.94.32.33.12.43.84.02.211.8 [lower-alpha 15] 35.6
NSPM [15] 14 February1,05039.110.04.72.25.21.63.75.43.83.63.117.6 [lower-alpha 16] 29.1
Faktor Plus [16] 13 February1,10046.010.87.11.12.02.22.23.34.73.34.32.710.3 [lower-alpha 17] 35.2

2022

Polling firmDate of publishmentSample size SNS–led
coalition
SSP Narodna DS PSG SPSJS NADA NDB Together Dveri SSZ SRCE OthersLead
NDSS POKS
Faktor Plus [17] 12 December ?46.87.02.81.81.010.94.53.71.63.03.92.011.0 [lower-alpha 18] 32.7
NSPM [18] 1 November1,05042.54.62.51.59.85.51.23.43.93.94.515.8 [lower-alpha 19] 32.7
Faktor Plus [19] 25 October ?46.36.82.82.21.210.85.74.32.53.44.08.9 [lower-alpha 20] 32.0
NSPM [20] 27 July1,00042.65.31.51.71.49.46.14.83.13.85.914.3 [lower-alpha 21] 33.2
Demostat [21] 29 June1,20348.010.03.09.06.04.04.03.013.038.0
2022 election 3 April44.214.011.75.5 [lower-alpha 22] 4.83.9 [lower-alpha 23] 3.811.730.2

Scenario polls

Three alliances

In July 2023, Stata conducted a scenario opinion poll. It showed that a potential coalition of SNS, SPS, JS, Social Democratic Party of Serbia, Party of United Pensioners of Serbia, and Movement of Socialists would win 44 percent of the popular vote, while a hypothetical alliance of those who organised the Serbia Against Violence protests, which includes SSP, Narodna, DS, PSG, ZLF, and Together, would win 41 percent of the popular vote. [25] Stata conducted another scenario polls in September and October 2023, this time with Narodna being in the "state-building opposition" bloc. [6] CRTA, however, only polled Dveri, SSZ, NDSS, and POKS as part of the "patriotic bloc". [26]

Polling firmDate of publishmentSample sizeSNS–led
coalition
Serbia Against Violence State-building opposition [lower-alpha 24] OthersLead
CRTA [26] 16 October1,54449.041.010.00.08.0
Stata [4] 13 October1,54643.039.012.06.04.0
Stata [6] 19 September1,58044.038.011.07.06.0
Stata [25] 28 July1,55844.041.010.05.03.0

Six alliances

Nova srpska politička misao (NSPM) conducted an opinion poll in October 2023 in which they polled 6 alliances of parties. [2]

Polling firmDate of publishmentSample sizePZS [lower-alpha 25] Patriotic Bloc [lower-alpha 26] DSTogetherSRCE PEZLF NPSEUNLS NADA OthersLead
NSPM [2] 22 October1,00048.410.19.48.57.84.211.6 [lower-alpha 27] 38.3

Notes

  1. Was part of Together until September 2023.
  2. Split from the People's Party (Narodna) in August 2023.
  3. Including Enough is Enough (DJB)
  4. ZS: 1.4%, Others: 5.8%, while 9.1% of respondents had stated that they would vote for the opposition
  5. SRS: 1.5%; SDS: 1.0%; PEP: 1.0%
  6. Minority parties: 4.3%, Others: 11.0%, Undecided: 2.8%
  7. SDS: 1.4%, SRS: 1.2%, Others: 4%, while 15.3% of respondents had stated that they would vote for the opposition
  8. PEP: 2.5%, SDS: 1.5%, SRS: 1.2%, Minority parties: 4.2%, Others: 0.7%, Undecided: 6.4%
  9. PEP: 1.9%, Others: 16.9%
  10. SDS: 1.6%, SRS: 1.5%, Others: 3.6%, while 15.0% of respondents had stated that they would vote for the opposition
  11. SDS: 2.0%, SRS: 1.2%, Others: 3.1%, while 15.0% of respondents had stated that they would vote for the opposition
  12. SRS: 1.4%, SDS: 1.5%, Others: 4.4%, while 13.2% of respondents had stated that they would vote for the opposition
  13. SRS: 2.0%, SDS: 1.8%, Minority parties: 4.0%, Others: 3.2%
  14. DJB: 2.9%, SRS: 1.5%, VMSZ/SVM: 1.5%, SDS: 1.1%, LSV: 0.8%, SPP: 0.8%, SDAS: 0.6%, GDF: 0.3%, ZS: 0.2%, Minority parties: 1.0%, Blank vote: 2.5%
  15. DJB: 1.9%, VMSZ/SVM: 1.4%, SRS: 1.3%, SDS: 1.2%, SPP: 0.8%, LSV: 0.8%, SDAS: 0.5%, GDF: 0.4%, ZS: 0.3%, LDP: 0.03%, Minority parties: 0.9%, Blank votes: 2.3%
  16. SRS: 2.1%, SDS: 1.5%, Others: 5.0%, while 9.0% of respondents had stated that they would vote for the opposition
  17. SDS: 2.1%, SRS: 2.0%, Minority parties: 3.2%, Others: 3.0%
  18. SDS: 1.8%, DJB: 1.0%, SRS: 1.0%
  19. SRS: 2.2%, SDS: 1.5%, while 7.9% of respondents had stated that they would vote for the opposition
  20. SDS: 1.5%, SRS: 1.5%, DJB: 1.3%, Others: 4.6%
  21. SDS: 2.0%, while 7.9% of respondents had stated that they would vote for the opposition
  22. DSS took part with Vojislav Mihailović-led faction of POKS in the 2022 parliamentary election. [22] Mihailović was legally recognised as the president of POKS in July 2022. [23]
  23. Dveri took part with Žika Gojković-led faction of POKS in the 2022 parliamentary election. [24]
  24. Including National Democratic Alternative, Dveri, and Serbian Party Oathkeepers in polls from July 2023 onwards. Including the People's Party in Stata polls only from September 2023 onwards.
  25. Including the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS), United Serbia (JS), and Serbian Radical Party (SRS)
  26. Including the Serbian Party Oathkeepers (SSZ), Dveri, People's Party (Narodna), and Enough is Enough (DJB)
  27. Others: 4.1%, while 7.5% of respondents had stated that they would vote for the opposition

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