Opinion polling for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election

Last updated December 29, 2024

Since the 2022 Brazilian general election, polling companies have published surveys tracking voting intention for the next election. The results of these surveys are listed below in reverse chronological order and include candidates who frequently polled above 3%.

Opinion polls

2024

First round

Publisher/Pollster	Polling period	Sample size	Lula PT	Haddad PT	Freitas Republicanos	J. Bolsonaro ^[a] PL	Marçal PRTB	M. Bolsonaro PL	Gomes PDT	Zema NOVO	Ratinho PSD	Moro UNIÃO	Caiado UNIÃO	Leite PSDB	Barbalho MDB	Tebet MDB	Cristina PP	Blank/Null/ Undec.	Lead
Publisher/Pollster	Polling period	Sample size																Blank/Null/ Undec.	Lead
Paraná Pesquisas^[1]	21–25 Nov 2024	2,014	33.6%	—	—	37.6%	—	—	7.9%	—	—	—	3.7%	—	—	7.7%	—	9.6%	4%
			34.2%	—	—	—	—	27.5%	10.2%	—	—	—	6.4%	—	—	8.2%	—	13.5%	6.7%
			34.7%	—	24.1%	—	—	—	11.5%	—	—	—	5.3%	—	—	8.4%	—	16.1%	10.6%
			34.4%	—	—	—	—	—	12.8%	—	15.3%	—	8.9%	—	—	8.7%	—	19.9%	19.1%
			34.7%	—	—	—	—	—	13.4%	12.2%	—	—	8%	—	—	9.5%	—	22.2%	21.3%
			—	14.5%	—	38.3%	—	—	14.2%	—	—	—	4.4%	—	—	13%	—	15.6%	23.8%
			—	14.9%	—	—	—	27.6%	17%	—	—	—	7.1%	—	—	13.5%	—	19.9%	10.6%
CNT/MDA^[2]	7–10 Nov 2024	2,002	35.2%	—	—	32.2%	8.4%	—	6.2%	—	—	—	—	—	—	8%	—	10%	3%
			34.1%	—	—	—	14.1%	20.5%	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—	—	9.2%	—	12.8%	13.6%
			35.2%	—	15%	—	16.9%	—	9.4%	—	—	—	—	—	—	9.5%	—	14%	18.3%
Paraná Pesquisas^[3]	18–22 Jul 2024	2,026	38.3%	—	—	36.9%	—	—	7.9%	—	—	—	3%	1.9%	0.5%	—	—	11.6%	1.4%
			38.7%	—	—	—	—	30.3%	9.1%	—	—	—	4.5%	2.3%	0.6%	—	—	14.5%	8.4%
			38.9%	—	24.4%	—	—	—	11.8%	—	—	—	4%	2.7%	0.6%	—	—	17.6%	14.5%
			39%	—	—	—	—	—	12.4%	—	14.2%	—	7.5%	3.3%	0.7%	—	—	22.8%	24.8%
			38.8%	—	—	—	—	—	13.3%	13.1%	—	—	6.7%	3.5%	0.8%	—	—	23.9%	25.5%
Genial/Quaest^[4]	2–6 May 2024	2,045	46%	—	40%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	14%	6%
Paraná Pesquisas^[5]	27 Apr–1 May 2024	2,020	36%	—	—	38.8%	—	—	8.4%	—	—	—	—	3.4%	1.0%	—	—	12.3%	2.8%
			36.6%	—	—	—	—	33%	10.1%	—	—	—	—	3.8%	1.4%	—	—	15.0%	3.6%
			36.9%	—	25.6%	—	—	—	11.8%	—	—	—	—	3.8%	1.3%	—	—	20.7%	11.3%
			37.2%	—	—	—	—	—	14.7%	—	—	—	10.9%	5.6%	1.7%	—	—	29.8%	22.5%
			36.9%	—	—	—	—	—	15.2%	—	—	—	—	6.5%	1.9%	—	15.2%	31.0%	21.7%
			36.3%	—	—	—	—	—	13.8%	—	17.6%	—	—	4.9%	1.6%	—	—	25.9%	18.7%
			37.2%	—	—	—	—	—	14.8%	14.9%	—	—	—	5.1%	1.8%	—	—	26.3%	22.3%
Paraná Pesquisas^[6]	24–28 Jan 2024	2,026	37.6%	—	—	—	—	23%	9.3%	6.5%	5.1%	—	1.9%	—	0.9%	—	—	15.6%	14.6%
			37.4%	—	17.4%	—	—	—	10.3%	5.8%	6.2%	—	2.1%	—	1.1%	—	—	19.6%	20%
			36.9%	—	—	33.8%	—	—	7.8%	3.9%	3.9%	—	1.2%	—	0.8%	—	—	11.7%	3.1%
Paraná Pesquisas^[7]	29 Sep – 3 Oct 2023	2,020	36.6%	—	12.7%	—	—	—	6.3%	5.7%	4.6%	6.7%	1.2%	2.1%	—	7.4%	1.9%	14.9%	23.9%
			37.6%	—	18.9%	—	—	—	8.7%	—	—	—	—	3.7%	—	9.0%	—	22.2%	18.7%
			37.6%	—	—	—	—	—	8.8%	15.3%	—	—	—	4.0%	—	8.8%	—	25.5%	22.3%
			37.7%	—	—	—	—	—	9.2%	—	12.8%	—	—	4.1%	—	8.7%	—	27.4%	24.9%

Second round

Publisher/Pollster	Polling period	Sample size	Lula PT	Freitas Republicanos	J. Bolsonaro ^[b] PL	Marçal PRTB	Caiado UNIÃO	Blank/Null/ Undec.	Lead
Publisher/Pollster	Polling period	Sample size						Blank/Null/ Undec.	Lead
Genial/Quaest^[8]	4–9 Dec 2024	8,598	51%	—	35%	—	—	14%	16%
			52%	26%	—	—	—	22%	26%
			52%	—	—	27%	—	22%	25%
			54%	—	—	—	20%	26%	34%

Notes

↑ Ineligible.
↑ Ineligible.

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References

↑ "O desempenho de Bolsonaro, Michelle, Tarcísio, Ratinho e Zema em eventuais disputas contra Lula em 2026". CartaCapital (in Brazilian Portuguese). 27 November 2024. Retrieved 4 December 2024.
↑ "Pesquisa testa cenários com Lula, Marçal, Tarcísio, Bolsonaro e Michelle para 2026; veja os números". CartaCapital (in Brazilian Portuguese). 12 November 2024. Retrieved 14 November 2024.
↑ Aguiar, Victor. "Pesquisa simula eleição com Lula contra Bolsonaro, Michelle e Tarcísio; veja cenários". CNN Brasil (in Brazilian Portuguese). Retrieved 30 July 2024.
↑ "Poll 02–06 May 2024" (PDF).
↑ "Lula venceria Tarcísio, mas casal Bolsonaro mantém força para 2026". Poder360 (in Brazilian Portuguese). 24 May 2024. Retrieved 24 May 2024.
↑ "Pesquisa de Opinião Pública Nacional - Janeiro de 2024" (PDF). Paraná Pesquisas (in Brazilian Portuguese). 9 February 2024. Retrieved 15 February 2024.
↑ "Pesquisa: Lula lidera com folga, e Tarcísio é nome mais forte da oposição". Veja (in Brazilian Portuguese). 13 October 2023. Retrieved 14 October 2023.
↑ "Genial/Quaest: Lula vence todos os cenários em 2026; Haddad é favorito pra substituí-lo". UOL (in Brazilian Portuguese). 27 November 2024. Retrieved 12 December 2024.

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[1] Ineligible.

[9] Ineligible.

[2] "O desempenho de Bolsonaro, Michelle, Tarcísio, Ratinho e Zema em eventuais disputas contra Lula em 2026". CartaCapital (in Brazilian Portuguese). 27 November 2024. Retrieved 4 December 2024.

[3] "Pesquisa testa cenários com Lula, Marçal, Tarcísio, Bolsonaro e Michelle para 2026; veja os números". CartaCapital (in Brazilian Portuguese). 12 November 2024. Retrieved 14 November 2024.

[4] Aguiar, Victor. "Pesquisa simula eleição com Lula contra Bolsonaro, Michelle e Tarcísio; veja cenários". CNN Brasil (in Brazilian Portuguese). Retrieved 30 July 2024.

[5] "Poll 02–06 May 2024" (PDF).

[6] "Lula venceria Tarcísio, mas casal Bolsonaro mantém força para 2026". Poder360 (in Brazilian Portuguese). 24 May 2024. Retrieved 24 May 2024.

[7] "Pesquisa de Opinião Pública Nacional - Janeiro de 2024" (PDF). Paraná Pesquisas (in Brazilian Portuguese). 9 February 2024. Retrieved 15 February 2024.

[8] "Pesquisa: Lula lidera com folga, e Tarcísio é nome mais forte da oposição". Veja (in Brazilian Portuguese). 13 October 2023. Retrieved 14 October 2023.

[10] "Genial/Quaest: Lula vence todos os cenários em 2026; Haddad é favorito pra substituí-lo". UOL (in Brazilian Portuguese). 27 November 2024. Retrieved 12 December 2024.

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