Opinion polling for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election

Since the 2022 Brazilian general election, polling companies have published surveys tracking national voting intention for the 2026 Brazilian general election. The results of these surveys are listed below in reverse chronological order and include candidates who frequently polled above 3% and are registered in a party as well eligible by the Superior Electoral Court of Brazil.

Pre-campaign period

2025

First round

Polling firm	Polling period	Lula	Freitas	Bolsonaro	Gomes	Ratinho	Zema	Caiado	Others [a]	Blank Null Undec. [b]	Margin of error [c]	Sample size	Lead	Link
Real Time	28–30 Aug 2025	42	40	—	—	—	4	—	2	9	±3 pp	2,500	2	[1]
AtlasIntel	20–25 Aug 2025	44.1	31.8	—	3.4	4	4.4	3.2	5	4.2	±1 pp	6,238	12.3	[2]
Paraná Pesquisas	17–21 Aug 2025	35.1	24.5	—	9.9	8.8	—	4.6	1.2	15.9	±2.2 pp	2,020	10.6	[3]
Quaest	13–17 Aug 2025	35	17	—	11	—	4	6	—	27	±2 pp	12,150	18	[4]
Datafolha	29–30 Jul 2025	38	21	—	—	12	6	7	—	17	±2 pp	2,004	17	[5]
AtlasIntel	25–28 Jul 2025	48.5	33	—	2.9	3.6	3.6	3	2.6	2.8	±1 pp	7,334	15.5	[6]
Quaest	10–14 Jul 2025	32	15	—	12	—	4	5	—	32	±2 pp	2,004	17	[7]
AtlasIntel	27–30 Jun 2025	44.6	34	—	3.5	2.5	4.4	1.7	4.7	4.6	±2 pp	2,621	10.6	[8]
Neokemp	25–27 Jun 2025	35	37.5	—	10.2	—	—	4.9	—	12.5	±2.2 pp	2,020	2.5	[9]
Futura	12–23 Jun 2025	28.2	26.3	—	14.4	—	—	6	—	25.1	±2.2 pp	2,000	1.9	[10]
Paraná Pesquisas	18–22 Jun 2025	34	24.3	—	13.5	6.9	—	4.3	—	16.1	±2.2 pp	2,020	9.7	[11]
CNT	11–15 Jun 2025	30.5	18.3	—	14.6	8.1	4	4.1	—	20.4	±2 pp	2,002	12.2	[12]
Datafolha	10–11 Jun 2025	37	21	—	—	11	6	6	—	19	±2 pp	2,004	16	[13]
Gerp	28–31 May 2025	24	18	—	9	7	3	5	9	25	±2.2 pp	2,000	6	[14]
AtlasIntel	19–23 May 2025	44.1	33.1	—	3	—	1.4	4.7	8.3	5.4	±1 pp	4,399	11	[15]
Gerp	21–25 Apr 2025	30	19	—	9	—	4	4	7	18	±2.2 pp	2,000	11	[16]
AtlasIntel	20–24 Apr 2025	42.8	34.3	—	2.7	—	1.6	4.3	6.4	8	±1 pp	5,419	8.5	[17]
		43.3	—	31.3	3	—	3	5.5	8	6.9			12
Paraná Pesquisas	16–19 Apr 2025	34	27.3	—	12.6	—	—	4.8	5.5	15.7	±2.2 pp	2,020	6.7	[18]
Datafolha	1–3 Apr 2025	35	15	—	11	—	3	2	18	14	±2 pp	3,054	20	[18]
		35	—	15	12	—	4	3	18	12			20
AtlasIntel	24–27 Feb 2025	41.6	32.3	—	—	—	4.5	4.5	4.5	12.6	±1 pp	5,710	9.3	[19]
CNT	19–23 Feb 2025	30.4	14	—	14.3	—	3.9	3.9	13.2	20.2	±2.2 pp	2,002	16.1	[20]
Paraná Pesquisas	13–16 Feb 2025	34.1	—	27.2	9	—	—	4.7	13.1	12	±2.2 pp	2,100	6.9	[21]
Quaest	23–26 Jan 2025	30	13	—	9	—	3	3	23	19	±1 pp	4,500	17	[22]

Second round

Polling firm	Polling period	Lula	Freitas	Bolsonaro	Ratinho	Zema	Caiado	Blank Null Undec. [b]	Margin of error [c]	Sample size	Lead	Link
AtlasIntel	20–25 Aug 2025	46.6	48.4	—	—	—	—	5	±1 pp	6,238	1.8	[2]
Paraná Pesquisas	17–21 Aug 2025	41.9	41.9	—	—	—	—	16.1	±2.2 pp	2,020	Tie	[3]
Quaest	13–17 Aug 2025	43	35	—	—	—	—	19	±2 pp	12,150	8	[4]
Datafolha	29–30 Jul 2025	45	41	—	—	—	—	14	±2 pp	2,004	4	[5]
AtlasIntel	25–28 Jul 2025	50.4	46.6	—	—	—	—	3	±1 pp	7,334	3.8	[23]
Quaest	10–14 Jul 2025	41	37	—	—	—	—	23	±2 pp	2,004	4	[7]
AtlasIntel	27–30 Jun 2025	47.6	46.9	—	—	—	—	5.5	±2 pp	2,621	0.7	[8]
Neokemp	25–27 Jun 2025	41.7	46.5	—	—	—	—	11.9	±2.2 pp	2,020	4.8	[9]
Futura	12–23 Jun 2025	34.9	46.5	—	—	—	—	18.6	±2.2 pp	2,000	11.6	[10]
Paraná Pesquisas	18–22 Jun 2025	40.1	43.6	—	—	—	—	16.2	±2.2 pp	2,020	3.5	[24]
Datafolha	10–11 Jun 2025	43	42	—	—	—	—	15	±2 pp	2,004	1	[13]
Futura	2–4 Jun 2025	41.1	41	—	—	—	—	17.9	±3.1 pp	1,001	0.1	[14]
Quaest	29 May – 1 Jun 2025	41	40	—	—	—	—	19	±2 pp	2,004	1	[25]
		40	—	—	38	—	—	22			2
AtlasIntel	19–23 May 2025	45.3	48.9	—	—	—	—	4.9	±1 pp	4,399	3.6	[26]
AtlasIntel	20–24 Apr 2025	46.7	46.7	—	—	—	—	6.6	±1 pp	5,419	Tie	[27]
		46.7	—	46.1	—	—	—	7.3			0.6
Paraná Pesquisas	16–19 Apr 2025	40.6	43.4	—	—	—	—	16	±2.2 pp	2,020	2.8	[18]
Datafolha	1–3 Apr 2025	48	39	—	—	—	—	14	±2 pp	3,054	9	[28]
		50	—	38	—	—	—	12			12
Quaest	27–31 Mar 2025	43	37	—	—	—	—	20	±2 pp	2,004	6	[29]
		44	—	38	—	—	—	18			6
AtlasIntel	20–24 Mar 2025	46	47	—	—	—	—	7	±1 pp	4,659	1	[30]
Futura	19–22 Mar 2025	37.6	42.3	—	—	—	—	20.1	±3.1 pp	1,000	4.7	[31]
AtlasIntel	24–27 Feb 2025	47	49	—	—	—	—	4	±1 pp	5,710	2	[19]
Paraná Pesquisas	13–16 Feb 2025	40.5	—	42.9	—	—	—	16.6	±2.2 pp	2,100	2.4	[21]
		41.1	40.8	—	—	—	—	18.1			0.3
AtlasIntel	27–31 Jan 2025	45.7	44.7	—	—	—	—	9.6	±2 pp	3,125	1	[32]
		47.4	—	—	—	—	36.5	16.1			10.9
Quaest	23–26 Jan 2025	43	34	—	—	—	—	23	±1 pp	4,500	9	[33]
		45	—	—	—	28	—	27			17
		45	—	—	—	—	26	29			19

2024

First round

Polling firm	Polling period	Lula	Haddad	Freitas	J. Bolsonaro [d]	Marçal [d]	M. Bolsonaro	Gomes	Zema	Ratinho	Moro	Caiado	Leite	Barbalho	Tebet	Cristina	Blank Null Undec. [b]	Margin of error [c]	Sample size	Lead	Link
Paraná Pesquisas	21–25 Nov 2024	33.6	—	—	37.6	—	—	7.9	—	—	—	3.7	—	—	7.7	—	9.6	—	2,014	4	[34]
		34.2	—	—	—	—	27.5	10.2	—	—	—	6.4	—	—	8.2	—	13.5			6.7
		34.7	—	24.1	—	—	—	11.5	—	—	—	5.3	—	—	8.4	—	16.1			10.6
		34.4	—	—	—	—	—	12.8	—	15.3	—	8.9	—	—	8.7	—	19.9			19.1
		34.7	—	—	—	—	—	13.4	12.2	—	—	8	—	—	9.5	—	22.2			21.3
		—	14.5	—	38.3	—	—	14.2	—	—	—	4.4	—	—	13	—	15.6			23.8
		—	14.9	—	—	—	27.6	17	—	—	—	7.1	—	—	13.5	—	19.9			10.6
CNT	7–10 Nov 2024	35.2	—	—	32.2	8.4	—	6.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	8	—	10	±2.2 pp	2,002	3	[35]
		34.1	—	—	—	14.1	20.5	9.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	9.2	—	12.8			13.6
		35.2	—	15	—	16.9	—	9.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	9.5	—	14			18.3
Paraná Pesquisas	18–22 Jul 2024	38.3	—	—	36.9	—	—	7.9	—	—	—	3	1.9	0.5	—	—	11.6	±2.2 pp	2,026	1.4	[36]
		38.7	—	—	—	—	30.3	9.1	—	—	—	4.5	2.3	0.6	—	—	14.5			8.4
		38.9	—	24.4	—	—	—	11.8	—	—	—	4	2.7	0.6	—	—	17.6			14.5
		39	—	—	—	—	—	12.4	—	14.2	—	7.5	3.3	0.7	—	—	22.8			24.8
		38.8	—	—	—	—	—	13.3	13.1	—	—	6.7	3.5	0.8	—	—	23.9			25.5
Quaest	2–6 May 2024	46	—	40	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	14	±2.2 pp	2,045	6	[37]
Paraná Pesquisas	27 Apr – 1 May 2024	36	—	—	38.8	—	—	8.4	—	—	—	—	3.4	1.0	—	—	12.3	±2.2 pp	2,020	2.8	[38]
		36.6	—	—	—	—	33	10.1	—	—	—	—	3.8	1.4	—	—	15.0			3.6
		36.9	—	25.6	—	—	—	11.8	—	—	—	—	3.8	1.3	—	—	20.7			11.3
		37.2	—	—	—	—	—	14.7	—	—	—	10.9	5.6	1.7	—	—	29.8			22.5
		36.9	—	—	—	—	—	15.2	—	—	—	—	6.5	1.9	—	15.2	31.0			21.7
		36.3	—	—	—	—	—	13.8	—	17.6	—	—	4.9	1.6	—	—	25.9			18.7
		37.2	—	—	—	—	—	14.8	14.9	—	—	—	5.1	1.8	—	—	26.3			22.3
Paraná Pesquisas	24–28 Jan 2024	37.6	—	—	—	—	23	9.3	6.5	5.1	—	1.9	—	0.9	—	—	15.6	±3.4 pp	2,026	14.6	[39]
		37.4	—	17.4	—	—	—	10.3	5.8	6.2	—	2.1	—	1.1	—	—	19.6			20
		36.9	—	—	33.8	—	—	7.8	3.9	3.9	—	1.2	—	0.8	—	—	11.7			3.1
Paraná Pesquisas	29 Sep – 3 Oct 2023	36.6	—	12.7	—	—	—	6.3	5.7	4.6	6.7	1.2	2.1	—	7.4	1.9	14.9	±2.2 pp	2,020	23.9	[40]
		37.6	—	18.9	—	—	—	8.7	—	—	—	—	3.7	—	9.0	—	22.2			18.7
		37.6	—	—	—	—	—	8.8	15.3	—	—	—	4.0	—	8.8	—	25.5			22.3
		37.7	—	—	—	—	—	9.2	—	12.8	—	—	4.1	—	8.7	—	27.4			24.9

See also

• President of Brazil
• Opinion polling for the 2022 Brazilian general election

Notes

1. Refers to the total for other eligible and ineligible candidates, not registered in a party and that did not frequently polled above 3%.
2. Refers to the total, "raw" sample size, including undecided and non-voters.
3. In cases when linked poll details distinguish between the margin of error associated with the total sample of respondents (including undecided and non-voters) and that of the subsample of decided/leaning voters, the former is included in the table. Also not included is the margin of error created by rounding to the nearest whole number or any margin of error from methodological sources. Most online polls (because of their opt-in method of recruiting panelists which results in a non-random sample) cannot have a margin of error. In such cases, shown is what the margin of error would be for a survey using a random probability-based sample of equivalent size.
4. Ineligible.

References

1. "Real Time: Lula tem 42% e Tarcísio, 40% em cenário de 1º turno". CNN Brasil (in Portuguese). 2 September 2025.
2. "AtlasIntel testa Tarcísio e Michelle contra Lula na disputa pela Presidência em 2026; veja os resultados". Carta Capital (in Portuguese). 28 August 2025.
3. "Lula empata com Bolsonaro, Michelle e Tarcísio no 2° turno". Poder360 (in Portuguese). 25 August 2025.
4. "Eleição 2026: Lula volta a ficar à frente de Tarcísio no 2º turno, diz Quaest; presidente também venceria os outros 8 potenciais adversários". G1 (in Portuguese). 21 August 2025.
5. "Datafolha: Lula ganha vantagem sobre bolsonarismo em 1º e 2º turnos". Folha de S.Paulo (in Portuguese). 2 August 2025.
6. "Lula lidera com folga para 2026 e vence todos os adversários no 2º turno, diz AtlasIntel". Piaui Hoje (in Portuguese). 31 July 2025.
7. "Eleição 2026: Lula lidera em todos os cenários de 1º turno e empataria só com Tarcísio em eventual 2º turno, diz Quaest". G1 (in Portuguese). 17 July 2025.
8. "Latam Pulse Brazil" (PDF). AtlasIntel (in Portuguese). 8 July 2025.
9. "Lula perderia para Tarcísio com apoio de Bolsonaro em segundo turno, aponta pesquisa". Gazeta do Povo (in Portuguese). 24 June 2025.
10. "Lula perde para Bolsonaro, Michelle e Tarcísio por mais de 10 pontos no 2º turno em 2026, diz Futura". Exame (in Portuguese). 24 June 2025.
11. "Lula tem empate técnico com Bolsonaro e Michelle no 1º turno, diz pesquisa". CNN Brasil (in Portuguese). 24 June 2025.
12. "Pesquisa MDA testa Lula, Haddad, Bolsonaro e Tarcísio para 2026; veja os números". Carta Capital (in Portuguese). 14 June 2025.
13. "Datafolha: Lula lidera maioria dos cenários de 1° turno, mas empata com Bolsonaro e Tarcísio no 2°". G1 (in Portuguese). 14 June 2025.
14. "Lula, Bolsonaro, Tarcísio: o que as novas pesquisas mostram sobre as eleições de 2026". Exame (in Portuguese). 30 June 2025.
15. "Pesquisa testa cenários eleitorais com Lula, Tarcísio e Michelle para 2026; veja os resultados". Carta Capital (in Portuguese). 30 May 2025.
16. "Bolsonaro segue à frente de Lula em pesquisa do instituto Gerp sobre 2026". Gazeta do Povo (in Portuguese). 29 April 2025.
17. "Bolsonaro e Lula têm empate técnico em disputa para 2026, diz AtlasIntel". UOL (in Portuguese). 28 April 2025.
18. "Datafolha: Lula venceria Bolsonaro e demais nomes da direita se eleição fosse hoje". Folha de S.Paulo (in Portuguese). 5 April 2025.
19. "Atlas: Lula lidera no 1º turno, mas empata tecnicamente com Tarcísio no 2º turno". UOL (in Portuguese). 7 March 2025.
20. "Lula tem 30,3% e Bolsonaro, 30,1% em simulação eleitoral, diz CNT/MD". CNN Brazil (in Portuguese). 18 February 2025.
21. "Paraná Pesquisas: sem Bolsonaro, quem é mais competitivo contra Lula?". Veja (in Portuguese). 18 February 2025.
22. "Quaest para presidente: Lula tem 30%; Tarcísio, 13%; e Gusttavo Lima, 12%". CNN (in Portuguese). 3 January 2025. Retrieved 3 January 2025.
23. "Lula vence Bolsonaro, Tarcísio e Michelle e outros 4 nomes da direita em 2026, diz AtlasIntel". Exame (in Portuguese). 31 July 2025.
24. "Paraná Pesquisas: Lula empata com Michelle, Eduardo e Tarcísio em 2º turno". CNN Brasil (in Portuguese). 24 June 2025.
25. "Lula e Bolsonaro empatariam com 41% no 2º turno em 2026, diz Quaest". CNN Brasil (in Portuguese). 5 June 2025.
26. "Lula perde para Bolsonaro, Tarcísio e Michelle em segundo turno, diz Atlas". CNN Brasil (in Portuguese). 30 May 2025.
27. "Lula está à frente de Tarcísio e Michelle em intenções de voto para 2026, diz pesquisa AtlasIntel". Estadão (in Portuguese). 28 April 2025.
28. "Datafolha: Lula teria 48%, contra 39% de Tarcísio em cenário de 2º turno". Folha de S.Paulo (in Portuguese). Retrieved 5 April 2025.
29. "Lula e Bolsonaro empatam, e presidente vence outros 7 candidatos em cenários de 2º turno em 2026, aponta Quaest". G1 (in Portuguese). Retrieved 3 April 2025.
30. Salles Barros, Henrique. "Lula, Tarcísio, Bolsonaro, Marçal: pesquisa Atlas simula 2° turno para 2026". CNN Brasil (in Portuguese). Retrieved 1 April 2025.
31. Porto, Douglas. "Pesquisa Futura: Tarcísio tem 42,3% e Lula, 37,6% em simulação de 2º turno". CNN Brasil (in Brazilian Portuguese). Retrieved 27 March 2025.
32. "Tarcísio vai melhor que Bolsonaro contra Lula no 2º turno, diz AtlasIntel". CNN Brazil (in Portuguese). 3 January 2025. Retrieved 11 February 2025.
33. "Lula é favorito em cenários para 2026 sem Bolsonaro, Gusttavo Lima é quem mais se aproxima em 2º turno, diz Genial/Quaest". Terra (in Portuguese). 3 January 2025. Retrieved 3 January 2025.
34. "O desempenho de Bolsonaro, Michelle, Tarcísio, Ratinho e Zema em eventuais disputas contra Lula em 2026". CartaCapital (in Brazilian Portuguese). 27 November 2024. Retrieved 4 December 2024.
35. "Pesquisa testa cenários com Lula, Marçal, Tarcísio, Bolsonaro e Michelle para 2026; veja os números". CartaCapital (in Brazilian Portuguese). 12 November 2024. Retrieved 14 November 2024.
36. Aguiar, Victor. "Pesquisa simula eleição com Lula contra Bolsonaro, Michelle e Tarcísio; veja cenários". CNN Brasil (in Brazilian Portuguese). Retrieved 30 July 2024.
37. "Poll 02–06 May 2024" (PDF).
38. "Lula venceria Tarcísio, mas casal Bolsonaro mantém força para 2026". Poder360 (in Brazilian Portuguese). 24 May 2024. Retrieved 24 May 2024.
39. "Pesquisa de Opinião Pública Nacional - Janeiro de 2024" (PDF). Paraná Pesquisas (in Brazilian Portuguese). 9 February 2024. Retrieved 15 February 2024.
40. "Pesquisa: Lula lidera com folga, e Tarcísio é nome mais forte da oposição". Veja (in Brazilian Portuguese). 13 October 2023. Retrieved 14 October 2023.