Opinion polling for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election

Last updated February 04, 2025

Since the 2022 Brazilian general election, polling companies have published surveys tracking voting intention for the next election. The results of these surveys are listed below in reverse chronological order and include candidates who frequently polled above 3%.

Opinion polls

2025

First round

Publisher/Pollster	Polling period	Sample size	Lula PT	Freitas Republicanos	Marçal PRTB	Gomes PDT	Zema NOVO	Caiado UNIÃO	Others	Blank/Null/ Undec.	Lead
Publisher/Pollster	Polling period	Sample size							Others	Blank/Null/ Undec.	Lead
Genial/Quaest^[1]	23–26 Jan 2025	4,500	30%	13%	11%	9%	3%	3%	12%	19%	17%

Second round

Publisher/Pollster	Polling period	Sample size	Lula PT	Freitas Republicanos	Marçal PRTB	Zema NOVO	Caiado UNIÃO	Blank/Null/ Undec.	Lead
Publisher/Pollster	Polling period	Sample size						Blank/Null/ Undec.	Lead
Genial/Quaest^[2]	23–26 Jan 2025	4,500	43%	34%	—	—	—	23%	9%
			44%	—	34%	—	—	22%	10%
			45%	—	—	28%	—	27%	17%
			45%	—	—	—	26%	29%	19%

2024

First round

Publisher/Pollster	Polling period	Sample size	Lula PT	Haddad PT	Freitas Republicanos	J. Bolsonaro ^[a] PL	Marçal PRTB	M. Bolsonaro PL	Gomes PDT	Zema NOVO	Ratinho PSD	Moro UNIÃO	Caiado UNIÃO	Leite PSDB	Barbalho MDB	Tebet MDB	Cristina PP	Blank/Null/ Undec.	Lead
Publisher/Pollster	Polling period	Sample size																Blank/Null/ Undec.	Lead
Paraná Pesquisas^[3]	21–25 Nov 2024	2,014	33.6%	—	—	37.6%	—	—	7.9%	—	—	—	3.7%	—	—	7.7%	—	9.6%	4%
			34.2%	—	—	—	—	27.5%	10.2%	—	—	—	6.4%	—	—	8.2%	—	13.5%	6.7%
			34.7%	—	24.1%	—	—	—	11.5%	—	—	—	5.3%	—	—	8.4%	—	16.1%	10.6%
			34.4%	—	—	—	—	—	12.8%	—	15.3%	—	8.9%	—	—	8.7%	—	19.9%	19.1%
			34.7%	—	—	—	—	—	13.4%	12.2%	—	—	8%	—	—	9.5%	—	22.2%	21.3%
			—	14.5%	—	38.3%	—	—	14.2%	—	—	—	4.4%	—	—	13%	—	15.6%	23.8%
			—	14.9%	—	—	—	27.6%	17%	—	—	—	7.1%	—	—	13.5%	—	19.9%	10.6%
CNT/MDA^[4]	7–10 Nov 2024	2,002	35.2%	—	—	32.2%	8.4%	—	6.2%	—	—	—	—	—	—	8%	—	10%	3%
			34.1%	—	—	—	14.1%	20.5%	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—	—	9.2%	—	12.8%	13.6%
			35.2%	—	15%	—	16.9%	—	9.4%	—	—	—	—	—	—	9.5%	—	14%	18.3%
Paraná Pesquisas^[5]	18–22 Jul 2024	2,026	38.3%	—	—	36.9%	—	—	7.9%	—	—	—	3%	1.9%	0.5%	—	—	11.6%	1.4%
			38.7%	—	—	—	—	30.3%	9.1%	—	—	—	4.5%	2.3%	0.6%	—	—	14.5%	8.4%
			38.9%	—	24.4%	—	—	—	11.8%	—	—	—	4%	2.7%	0.6%	—	—	17.6%	14.5%
			39%	—	—	—	—	—	12.4%	—	14.2%	—	7.5%	3.3%	0.7%	—	—	22.8%	24.8%
			38.8%	—	—	—	—	—	13.3%	13.1%	—	—	6.7%	3.5%	0.8%	—	—	23.9%	25.5%
Genial/Quaest^[6]	2–6 May 2024	2,045	46%	—	40%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	14%	6%
Paraná Pesquisas^[7]	27 Apr–1 May 2024	2,020	36%	—	—	38.8%	—	—	8.4%	—	—	—	—	3.4%	1.0%	—	—	12.3%	2.8%
			36.6%	—	—	—	—	33%	10.1%	—	—	—	—	3.8%	1.4%	—	—	15.0%	3.6%
			36.9%	—	25.6%	—	—	—	11.8%	—	—	—	—	3.8%	1.3%	—	—	20.7%	11.3%
			37.2%	—	—	—	—	—	14.7%	—	—	—	10.9%	5.6%	1.7%	—	—	29.8%	22.5%
			36.9%	—	—	—	—	—	15.2%	—	—	—	—	6.5%	1.9%	—	15.2%	31.0%	21.7%
			36.3%	—	—	—	—	—	13.8%	—	17.6%	—	—	4.9%	1.6%	—	—	25.9%	18.7%
			37.2%	—	—	—	—	—	14.8%	14.9%	—	—	—	5.1%	1.8%	—	—	26.3%	22.3%
Paraná Pesquisas^[8]	24–28 Jan 2024	2,026	37.6%	—	—	—	—	23%	9.3%	6.5%	5.1%	—	1.9%	—	0.9%	—	—	15.6%	14.6%
			37.4%	—	17.4%	—	—	—	10.3%	5.8%	6.2%	—	2.1%	—	1.1%	—	—	19.6%	20%
			36.9%	—	—	33.8%	—	—	7.8%	3.9%	3.9%	—	1.2%	—	0.8%	—	—	11.7%	3.1%
Paraná Pesquisas^[9]	29 Sep – 3 Oct 2023	2,020	36.6%	—	12.7%	—	—	—	6.3%	5.7%	4.6%	6.7%	1.2%	2.1%	—	7.4%	1.9%	14.9%	23.9%
			37.6%	—	18.9%	—	—	—	8.7%	—	—	—	—	3.7%	—	9.0%	—	22.2%	18.7%
			37.6%	—	—	—	—	—	8.8%	15.3%	—	—	—	4.0%	—	8.8%	—	25.5%	22.3%
			37.7%	—	—	—	—	—	9.2%	—	12.8%	—	—	4.1%	—	8.7%	—	27.4%	24.9%

Second round

Publisher/Pollster	Polling period	Sample size	Lula PT	Freitas Republicanos	J. Bolsonaro ^[b] PL	Marçal PRTB	Caiado UNIÃO	Blank/Null/ Undec.	Lead
Publisher/Pollster	Polling period	Sample size						Blank/Null/ Undec.	Lead
Genial/Quaest^[10]	4–9 Dec 2024	8,598	51%	—	35%	—	—	14%	16%
			52%	26%	—	—	—	22%	26%
			52%	—	—	27%	—	22%	25%
			54%	—	—	—	20%	26%	34%

Notes

↑ Ineligible.
↑ Ineligible.

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References

↑ "Quaest para presidente: Lula tem 30%; Tarcísio, 13%; e Gusttavo Lima, 12%". CNN (in Portuguese). 3 January 2025. Retrieved 3 January 2025.
↑ "Lula é favorito em cenários para 2026 sem Bolsonaro, Gusttavo Lima é quem mais se aproxima em 2º turno, diz Genial/Quaest". Terra (in Portuguese). 3 January 2025. Retrieved 3 January 2025.
↑ "O desempenho de Bolsonaro, Michelle, Tarcísio, Ratinho e Zema em eventuais disputas contra Lula em 2026". CartaCapital (in Brazilian Portuguese). 27 November 2024. Retrieved 4 December 2024.
↑ "Pesquisa testa cenários com Lula, Marçal, Tarcísio, Bolsonaro e Michelle para 2026; veja os números". CartaCapital (in Brazilian Portuguese). 12 November 2024. Retrieved 14 November 2024.
↑ Aguiar, Victor. "Pesquisa simula eleição com Lula contra Bolsonaro, Michelle e Tarcísio; veja cenários". CNN Brasil (in Brazilian Portuguese). Retrieved 30 July 2024.
↑ "Poll 02–06 May 2024" (PDF).
↑ "Lula venceria Tarcísio, mas casal Bolsonaro mantém força para 2026". Poder360 (in Brazilian Portuguese). 24 May 2024. Retrieved 24 May 2024.
↑ "Pesquisa de Opinião Pública Nacional - Janeiro de 2024" (PDF). Paraná Pesquisas (in Brazilian Portuguese). 9 February 2024. Retrieved 15 February 2024.
↑ "Pesquisa: Lula lidera com folga, e Tarcísio é nome mais forte da oposição". Veja (in Brazilian Portuguese). 13 October 2023. Retrieved 14 October 2023.
↑ "Genial/Quaest: Lula vence todos os cenários em 2026; Haddad é favorito pra substituí-lo". UOL (in Brazilian Portuguese). 27 November 2024. Retrieved 12 December 2024.

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[3] Ineligible.

[11] Ineligible.

[1] "Quaest para presidente: Lula tem 30%; Tarcísio, 13%; e Gusttavo Lima, 12%". CNN (in Portuguese). 3 January 2025. Retrieved 3 January 2025.

[2] "Lula é favorito em cenários para 2026 sem Bolsonaro, Gusttavo Lima é quem mais se aproxima em 2º turno, diz Genial/Quaest". Terra (in Portuguese). 3 January 2025. Retrieved 3 January 2025.

[4] "O desempenho de Bolsonaro, Michelle, Tarcísio, Ratinho e Zema em eventuais disputas contra Lula em 2026". CartaCapital (in Brazilian Portuguese). 27 November 2024. Retrieved 4 December 2024.

[5] "Pesquisa testa cenários com Lula, Marçal, Tarcísio, Bolsonaro e Michelle para 2026; veja os números". CartaCapital (in Brazilian Portuguese). 12 November 2024. Retrieved 14 November 2024.

[6] Aguiar, Victor. "Pesquisa simula eleição com Lula contra Bolsonaro, Michelle e Tarcísio; veja cenários". CNN Brasil (in Brazilian Portuguese). Retrieved 30 July 2024.

[7] "Poll 02–06 May 2024" (PDF).

[8] "Lula venceria Tarcísio, mas casal Bolsonaro mantém força para 2026". Poder360 (in Brazilian Portuguese). 24 May 2024. Retrieved 24 May 2024.

[9] "Pesquisa de Opinião Pública Nacional - Janeiro de 2024" (PDF). Paraná Pesquisas (in Brazilian Portuguese). 9 February 2024. Retrieved 15 February 2024.

[10] "Pesquisa: Lula lidera com folga, e Tarcísio é nome mais forte da oposição". Veja (in Brazilian Portuguese). 13 October 2023. Retrieved 14 October 2023.

[12] "Genial/Quaest: Lula vence todos os cenários em 2026; Haddad é favorito pra substituí-lo". UOL (in Brazilian Portuguese). 27 November 2024. Retrieved 12 December 2024.

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v t e Elections and referendums in Brazil
Presidential elections	1891 1894 1898 1902 1906 1910 1914 1918 1919 1922 1926 1930 1934 1945 1950 1955 1960 1964 1966 1969 1974 1978 1985 1989 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026
Parliamentary elections	1823 1826 1830 1834 1842 1843 1845 1848 1850 1853 1857 1861 1864 1867 1869 1872 1877 1878 1881 1884 1886 1890 1894 1896 1899 1903 1906 1909 1912 1915 1918 1927 1930 1933 1934 1945 1947 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026
Gubernatorial elections	... 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026
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Referendums	1963 1993 2005

Opinion polling for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election

Contents

Opinion polls

2025

First round

Second round

2024

First round

Second round

See also

Notes

Related Research Articles

References