Opinion polling for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election

Since the 2022 Brazilian general election, polling companies have published surveys tracking voting intention for the 2026 Brazilian general election. The results of these surveys are listed below in reverse chronological order and include candidates who frequently polled above 3% and are registered in a party as well elegible by the Superior Electoral Court of Brazil.

Pre-campaign period

2025

First round

Polling firm	Polling period	Lula	Freitas	Bolsonaro	Gomes	Zema	Caiado	Others [a]	Blank Null Undec. [b]	Margin of error [c]	Sample size	Lead	Link
AtlasIntel	24–27 Feb 2025	41.6	32.3	—	—	4.5	4.5	4.5	12.6	±1 pp	5,710	9.3	[1]
CNT	19–23 Feb 2025	30.4	14	—	14.3	3.9	3.9	13.2	20.2	±2.2 pp	2,002	16.1	[2]
Paraná Pesquisas	13–16 Feb 2025	34.1	—	27.2	9	—	4.7	13.1	12	±2.2 pp	2,100	6.9	[3]
Quaest	23–26 Jan 2025	30	13	—	9	3	3	23	19	±1 pp	4,500	17	[4]

Second round

Polling firm	Polling period	Lula	Freitas	Bolsonaro	Zema	Caiado	Blank Null Undec. [b]	Margin of error [c]	Sample size	Lead	Link
AtlasIntel	24–27 Feb 2025	47	49	—	—	—	4	±1 pp	5,710	2	[1]
Paraná Pesquisas	13–16 Feb 2025	40.5	—	42.9	—	—	16.6	±2.2 pp	2,100	2.4	[5]
		41.1	40.8	—	—	—	18.1			0.3
AtlasIntel	27–31 Jan 2025	45.7	44.7	—	—	—	9.6	±2 pp	3,125	1	[6]
		47.4	—	—	—	36.5	16.1			10.9
Quaest	23–26 Jan 2025	43	34	—	—	—	23	±1 pp	4,500	9	[7]
		45	—	—	28	—	27			17
		45	—	—	—	26	29			19

2024

First round

Polling firm	Polling period	Lula	Haddad	Freitas	J. Bolsonaro [d]	Marçal [d]	M. Bolsonaro	Gomes	Zema	Ratinho	Moro	Caiado	Leite	Barbalho	Tebet	Cristina	Blank Null Undec. [b]	Margin of error [c]	Sample size	Lead	Link
Paraná Pesquisas	21–25 Nov 2024	33.6	—	—	37.6	—	—	7.9	—	—	—	3.7	—	—	7.7	—	9.6	—	2,014	4	[8]
		34.2	—	—	—	—	27.5	10.2	—	—	—	6.4	—	—	8.2	—	13.5			6.7
		34.7	—	24.1	—	—	—	11.5	—	—	—	5.3	—	—	8.4	—	16.1			10.6
		34.4	—	—	—	—	—	12.8	—	15.3	—	8.9	—	—	8.7	—	19.9			19.1
		34.7	—	—	—	—	—	13.4	12.2	—	—	8	—	—	9.5	—	22.2			21.3
		—	14.5	—	38.3	—	—	14.2	—	—	—	4.4	—	—	13	—	15.6			23.8
		—	14.9	—	—	—	27.6	17	—	—	—	7.1	—	—	13.5	—	19.9			10.6
CNT	7–10 Nov 2024	35.2	—	—	32.2	8.4	—	6.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	8	—	10	±2.2 pp	2,002	3	[9]
		34.1	—	—	—	14.1	20.5	9.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	9.2	—	12.8			13.6
		35.2	—	15	—	16.9	—	9.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	9.5	—	14			18.3
Paraná Pesquisas	18–22 Jul 2024	38.3	—	—	36.9	—	—	7.9	—	—	—	3	1.9	0.5	—	—	11.6	±2.2 pp	2,026	1.4	[10]
		38.7	—	—	—	—	30.3	9.1	—	—	—	4.5	2.3	0.6	—	—	14.5			8.4
		38.9	—	24.4	—	—	—	11.8	—	—	—	4	2.7	0.6	—	—	17.6			14.5
		39	—	—	—	—	—	12.4	—	14.2	—	7.5	3.3	0.7	—	—	22.8			24.8
		38.8	—	—	—	—	—	13.3	13.1	—	—	6.7	3.5	0.8	—	—	23.9			25.5
Quaest	2–6 May 2024	46	—	40	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	14	±2.2 pp	2,045	6	[11]
Paraná Pesquisas	27 Apr – 1 May 2024	36	—	—	38.8	—	—	8.4	—	—	—	—	3.4	1.0	—	—	12.3	±2.2 pp	2,020	2.8	[12]
		36.6	—	—	—	—	33	10.1	—	—	—	—	3.8	1.4	—	—	15.0			3.6
		36.9	—	25.6	—	—	—	11.8	—	—	—	—	3.8	1.3	—	—	20.7			11.3
		37.2	—	—	—	—	—	14.7	—	—	—	10.9	5.6	1.7	—	—	29.8			22.5
		36.9	—	—	—	—	—	15.2	—	—	—	—	6.5	1.9	—	15.2	31.0			21.7
		36.3	—	—	—	—	—	13.8	—	17.6	—	—	4.9	1.6	—	—	25.9			18.7
		37.2	—	—	—	—	—	14.8	14.9	—	—	—	5.1	1.8	—	—	26.3			22.3
Paraná Pesquisas	24–28 Jan 2024	37.6	—	—	—	—	23	9.3	6.5	5.1	—	1.9	—	0.9	—	—	15.6	±3.4 pp	2,026	14.6	[13]
		37.4	—	17.4	—	—	—	10.3	5.8	6.2	—	2.1	—	1.1	—	—	19.6			20
		36.9	—	—	33.8	—	—	7.8	3.9	3.9	—	1.2	—	0.8	—	—	11.7			3.1
Paraná Pesquisas	29 Sep – 3 Oct 2023	36.6	—	12.7	—	—	—	6.3	5.7	4.6	6.7	1.2	2.1	—	7.4	1.9	14.9	±2.2 pp	2,020	23.9	[14]
		37.6	—	18.9	—	—	—	8.7	—	—	—	—	3.7	—	9.0	—	22.2			18.7
		37.6	—	—	—	—	—	8.8	15.3	—	—	—	4.0	—	8.8	—	25.5			22.3
		37.7	—	—	—	—	—	9.2	—	12.8	—	—	4.1	—	8.7	—	27.4			24.9

See also

• President of Brazil
• Opinion polling for the 2022 Brazilian general election

Notes

1. Refers to the total for other eligible and ineligible candidates, not registered in a party and that did not frequently polled above 3%.
2. Refers to the total, "raw" sample size, including undecided and non-voters.
3. In cases when linked poll details distinguish between the margin of error associated with the total sample of respondents (including undecided and non-voters) and that of the subsample of decided/leaning voters, the former is included in the table. Also not included is the margin of error created by rounding to the nearest whole number or any margin of error from methodological sources. Most online polls (because of their opt-in method of recruiting panelists which results in a non-random sample) cannot have a margin of error. In such cases, shown is what the margin of error would be for a survey using a random probability-based sample of equivalent size.
4. Ineligible.

References

1. "Atlas: Lula lidera no 1º turno, mas empata tecnicamente com Tarcísio no 2º turno". UOL (in Portuguese). 7 March 2025.
2. "Lula tem 30,3% e Bolsonaro, 30,1% em simulação eleitoral, diz CNT/MD". CNN Brazil (in Portuguese). 18 February 2025.
3. "Paraná Pesquisas: sem Bolsonaro, quem é mais competitivo contra Lula?". Veja (in Portuguese). 18 February 2025.
4. "Quaest para presidente: Lula tem 30%; Tarcísio, 13%; e Gusttavo Lima, 12%". CNN (in Portuguese). 3 January 2025. Retrieved 3 January 2025.
5. "Paraná Pesquisas: sem Bolsonaro, quem é mais competitivo contra Lula?". Veja (in Portuguese). 18 February 2025.
6. "Tarcísio vai melhor que Bolsonaro contra Lula no 2º turno, diz AtlasIntel". CNN Brazil (in Portuguese). 3 January 2025. Retrieved 11 February 2025.
7. "Lula é favorito em cenários para 2026 sem Bolsonaro, Gusttavo Lima é quem mais se aproxima em 2º turno, diz Genial/Quaest". Terra (in Portuguese). 3 January 2025. Retrieved 3 January 2025.
8. "O desempenho de Bolsonaro, Michelle, Tarcísio, Ratinho e Zema em eventuais disputas contra Lula em 2026". CartaCapital (in Brazilian Portuguese). 27 November 2024. Retrieved 4 December 2024.
9. "Pesquisa testa cenários com Lula, Marçal, Tarcísio, Bolsonaro e Michelle para 2026; veja os números". CartaCapital (in Brazilian Portuguese). 12 November 2024. Retrieved 14 November 2024.
10. Aguiar, Victor. "Pesquisa simula eleição com Lula contra Bolsonaro, Michelle e Tarcísio; veja cenários". CNN Brasil (in Brazilian Portuguese). Retrieved 30 July 2024.
11. "Poll 02–06 May 2024" (PDF).
12. "Lula venceria Tarcísio, mas casal Bolsonaro mantém força para 2026". Poder360 (in Brazilian Portuguese). 24 May 2024. Retrieved 24 May 2024.
13. "Pesquisa de Opinião Pública Nacional - Janeiro de 2024" (PDF). Paraná Pesquisas (in Brazilian Portuguese). 9 February 2024. Retrieved 15 February 2024.
14. "Pesquisa: Lula lidera com folga, e Tarcísio é nome mais forte da oposição". Veja (in Brazilian Portuguese). 13 October 2023. Retrieved 14 October 2023.