Next Madeiran regional election

Last updated
Next Madeiran regional election
Flag of Madeira.svg
←  2024 On or before October 2028 [a]
47 seats to the Legislative Assembly of Madeira
24 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Miguel Albuquerque, Conferencias do Mar, Crescimento Azul, A Madeira, As Regioes Ultraperifericas e o Atlantico, Funchal, 10 de julho de 2017 - Image 141026 (cropped).jpg
Paulo Cafofo, Secretario de Estado das Comunidades Portuguesas 2022.png
JPP
Leader Miguel Albuquerque Paulo Cafôfo Élvio Sousa
Party PSD PS JPP
Leader since10 January 20152 December 202327 January 2015
Last election19 seats, 36.1%11 seats, 21.3%9 seats, 16.9%
Seats neededIncrease2.svg 5Increase2.svg 13Increase2.svg 15
 
Miguel Castro - CHEGA.jpg
Jose Manuel Rodrigues (24.o Congresso Nacional do PS, 2024).png
Iniciativa Liberal Icon.png
Leader Miguel Castro José Manuel Rodrigues Gonçalo Maia Camelo
Party CH CDS–PP IL
Leader since202214 April 202427 July 2024
Last election4 seats, 9.2%2 seats, 4.0%1 seats, 2.6%
Seats neededIncrease2.svg 20Increase2.svg 22Increase2.svg 23
 
Logo Pessoas-Animais-Natureza (text only).png
Leader Mónica Freitas
Party PAN
Leader since11 August 2023
Last election1 seats, 1.9%
Seats neededIncrease2.svg 23
Incumbent President

Miguel Albuquerque
PSD



The next Madeiran regional election will be held on or before October 2028, the composition of the Legislative Assembly of the Autonomous Region of Madeira. The election will replace all 47 members of the Madeira Assembly, and the new members will then elect the President of the Autonomous Region.

Contents

The incumbent president since 2015 is Miguel Albuquerque, from the Social Democratic Party (PSD). The Social Democrats are defending their dominance in the islands, which they have held since 1976.

Following the collapse of the Albuquerque government due to the approval of a motion of no confidence, an election is expected to be held during the first quarter of 2025, the third regional election in one year and a half. [1]

Background

In the 2024 election, albeit being marred in an ongoing corruption investigation, the Social Democratic Party was once again the most voted party with 36.1 percent of the votes. Despite their victory, the PSD failed to win a majority of the seats. [2]

The Socialist Party (PS) led by former Funchal mayor Paulo Cafôfo achieved a similar result to the 2023 elections, with 21.3 percent of the votes. The big surprise of the election was the regionalist party Together for the People (JPP), who gained 4 seats from their previous 5 seats and who achieved 16.9 percent of the votes. [3] After the election, PS and JPP struck a deal in order to make a coalition government and prevent a government led by Albuquerque, despite not having a majority. [4]

Miguel Albuquerque negotiated a parliamentary support agreement with the CDS–People's Party (CDS–PP), their previous coalition partners, in order to form a minority government. [5] Albuquerque was appointed as president and had to face a vote of confidence in the regional parliament. [6]

Albuquerque presented his government programme to the speaker of the Regional Parliament, José Manuel Rodrigues, on 14 June 2024, with Miguel Albuqerque saying that policies of all Opposition parties were included in the document. [7] However, the Socialist Party (PS), Together for the People (JPP) and Chega (CH) announced they would vote against Albuquerque in the vote of confidence on 20 June 2024, thus putting at risk the continuity of the regional government. [8] Facing a rejection, Albuquerque withdrew, on 19 June, his programme from the assembly and announced negotiations to present a new one, thus cancelling the 20 June vote. [9] After negotiations with Opposition parties, mainly Chega, IL, CDS–PP and PAN, Miguel Albuquerque presented, on 2 July, a new government programme that was to be voted on 4 July, but which had no certainties of passing at the moment it was presented. [10] On 4 July 2024, Albuquerque's government passed in the regional assembly, with 22 votes in favour, from PSD, CDS–PP and PAN, 21 votes against, from PS, JPP and Chega member Magna Costa, and four abstentions by IL and the three members from Chega. [11]

2024 motion of no confidence

On 6 November 2024, Chega presented a motion of no confidence to bring down Miguel Albuquerque, [12] citting the continued accusations, and investigations, of corruption against several regional secretaries and Albuquerque himself. [13] At the same time, the Chega motion also criticized the Socialist Party (PS) for being an "accomplice" of the Social Democrats bad government, [14] and this accusation generated divisions within the PS on what should be the party's position, with members divided between the vote in favour or abstain. [15] [16] [17] However, shortly after, Chega said it was open to drop the criticisms towards the PS, and then the PS signaled it would vote in favour of the motion, [18] [19] which was later officially confirmed. [20] The motion was expected to be voted on 18 November, but a PSD request to delay the vote was approved and the motion was then rescheduled for 17 December 2024. [21] On 9 December, the proposed budget for 2025 was rejected on the first reading with the votes of all Opposition parties and the approval of only PSD and CDS–PP. [22] On 17 December, the motion of no confidence was approved with the votes of all Opposition parties and the sole rejection of PSD and CDS–PP, thus causing the regional government to fall. [23]

Leadership changes and challenges

Liberal Initiative

Nuno Morna, regional party leader, announced on 16 June 2024 he was stepping down from the party's leadership, but remaining as regional Parliament member, [24] [25] and a leadership ballot was called for 27 July 2024. Duarte Gouveia, Morna's predecessor in the leadership post, announced his intention to return to the party's leadership. [26] A second candidate, Gonçalo Maia Camelo, also announced his intention to run for the leadership. [27] However, just days before the ballot, Duarte Gouveia withdrew from the race citing "lack of conditions" to campaign for the leadership. [28] Gonçalo Maia Camelo became the sole candidate and was elected, in a closed party meeting, as new regional leader on 27 July. [29]

Chega

The vote to decide the leadership of the Chega-Madeira party was held on September 22, 2024. [30] There were three candidates on the ballot: Current regional leader Miguel Castro; regional assembly member Magna Costa and Câmara de Lobos local assembly member José Fernandes. [30] The ballot was quite secretive, with the media being barred from covering it, [31] and Miguel Castro was re-elected as leader with 39 percent, followed by José Fernandes with 31 percent and Magna Costa with 28 percent. [32] The results were the following:

Ballot: 22 September 2024
CandidateVotes%
Miguel Castro 39.1
José Fernandes 31.1
Magna Costa 27.7
Blank/Invalid ballots2.1
Turnout
Source: [32]

Electoral system

The current 47 members of the Madeiran regional parliament are elected in a single constituency by proportional representation under the D'Hondt method, coinciding with the territory of the Region. [33]

Parties

Current composition

The table below lists parties represented in the Legislative Assembly of Madeira before the election.

NameIdeologyLeader2024 resultStatus
 %Seats
PPD/PSD Social Democratic Party
Partido Social Democrata		 Liberal conservatism Miguel Albuquerque 36.1%
19 / 47
Government
PS Socialist Party
Partido Socialista		 Social democracy Paulo Cafôfo 21.3%
11 / 47
Opposition
JPP Together for the People
Juntos pelo Povo		 Centrism Élvio Sousa 16.9%
9 / 47
CH Enough!
Chega!		 National conservatism Miguel Castro 9.2%
4 / 47
CDS–PP CDS – People's Party
Centro Democrático Social – Partido Popular		 Christian democracy José Manuel Rodrigues 4.0%
2 / 47
Confidence and supply
IL Liberal Initiative
Iniciativa Liberal		 Classical liberalism Gonçalo Maia Camelo 2.6%
1 / 47
Opposition
PAN People Animals Nature
Pessoas Animais Natureza		 Animal welfare Mónica Freitas 1.9%
1 / 47

Opinion polls

Polls that show their results without distributing those respondents who are undecided or said they would abstain from voting, are re-calculated by removing these numbers from the totals through a simple rule of three, in order to obtain results comparable to other polls and the official election results.

Polling

Polling firm/LinkFieldwork dateSample sizeTurnout PSD Logo Simples.png Cds simbolo 2.png Letras PS (Portugal).png
Logo Juntos pelo Povo.png
Logo Chega!.svg Iniciativa Liberal Icon.png Logo Pessoas-Animais-Natureza (text only).png Simbolo CDU (PCP-PEV) (Letras).png LeftBloc.svg Partido Trabalhista Portugues.png OLead
Intercampus [b] 29 Nov–7 Dec 2024803?38.7
20		4.3
2		21.2
11		15.2
7		7.1
3		4.3
2		2.1
1		—2.2
1		1.7
0		3.3
0		17.5
Aximage [c] 30 Nov–6 Dec 2024458?37.4
19		3.2
1		19.2
10		18.3
9		11.3
5		4.0
2		2.6
1		———3.9
0		18.2
2024 EP election 9 Jun 2024—41.642.7
(23)		26.0
(14)		—9.1
(4)		5.4
(2)		1.9
(1)		1.9
(1)		2.9
(1)		1.6
(0)		8.5
(1)		16.7
2024 regional election 26 May 2024—53.436.1
19		4.0
2		21.3
11		16.9
9		9.2
4		2.6
1		1.9
1		1.6
0		1.4
0		0.9
0		4.1
0		14.8

Notes

  1. ↑ Likely to be held during the first quarter of 2025.
  2. ↑ Results presented here exclude undecideds (17.9%) and those who would not vote (9.6%). With their inclusion results are: PSD: 28.0%; PS: 15.3%; JPP: 11.0%; CHEGA 5.1%; IL: 3.1%; CDS-PP: 3.1%; BE: 1.6%; PAN: 1.5%; PTP: 1.2%; Others/Invalid: 2.4%
  3. ↑ Results presented here exclude undecideds (15.6%). With their inclusion results are: PSD: 31.5%; PS: 16.2%; JPP: 15.4%; CHEGA 9.5%; IL: 3.4%; CDS-PP: 2.7%; PAN: 2.2%; Others/Invalid: 3.3%

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References

  1. ↑ Castro, Adriana (2024-12-17). "Aprovada moção de censura na Madeira. E agora?". Público (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2024-12-17.
  2. ↑ SAPO. "PSD vence na Madeira, mas sem maioria". SAPO 24 (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2024-06-15.
  3. ↑ Cunha, Mariana Lima. "JPP soma vitória eleitoral na Madeira. Afinal, qual é o segredo do partido dos "irmãos gauleses"?". Observador (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2024-06-15.
  4. ↑ "PS Madeira e Juntos pelo Povo querem governar e não viabilizam PSD". Jornal de Notícias (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2024-06-15.
  5. ↑ ECO (2024-05-28). "Miguel Albuquerque confirma acordo com CDS para apoio parlamentar na Madeira". ECO (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2024-06-15.
  6. ↑ ECO (2024-05-28). "Miguel Albuquerque será indigitado presidente do Governo Regional da Madeira". ECO (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2024-06-15.
  7. ↑ "Albuquerque diz haver condições para aprovar programa do Governo da Madeira". www.publico.com (in Portuguese). 14 June 2024. Retrieved 16 June 2024.
  8. ↑ "Viabilização do Programa do Governo da Madeira em risco. JPP vai votar contra". www.sapo.pt (in Portuguese). 15 June 2024. Retrieved 16 June 2024.
  9. ↑ "Albuquerque retira Programa do Governo de votação". www.dnoticias.pt (in Portuguese). 19 June 2024. Retrieved 19 June 2024.
  10. ↑ "Albuquerque diz-se confiante e promete levar Programa do Governo da Madeira "até ao fim"". www.rtp.pt (in Portuguese). 2 July 2024. Retrieved 2 July 2024.
  11. ↑ "Programa do Governo passa com votos a favor de PSD, CDS e PAN". Diário de Notícias da Madeira (in Portuguese). Funchal. 4 July 2024. Retrieved 4 July 2024.
  12. ↑ "Chega apresenta moção de censura". RTP Madeira (in Portuguese). Funchal. 6 November 2024. Retrieved 8 November 2024.
  13. ↑ ""Miguel Albuquerque não tem condições para liderar o governo" (vídeo)". RTP Madeira (in Portuguese). Funchal. 6 November 2024. Retrieved 8 November 2024.
  14. ↑ "Moção de censura do Chega diz que PS é "cúmplice ético" do PSD". Diário de Notícias (in Portuguese). Lisbon. 7 November 2024. Retrieved 8 November 2024.
  15. ↑ "Carlos Jardim sobre a moção de censura: "PS deveria ter liderado o processo"". Diário de Notícias da Madeira (in Portuguese). Funchal. 7 November 2024. Retrieved 8 November 2024.
  16. ↑ "Carlos Pereira pergunta porque o PS não apresenta a sua Moção de Censura". Diário de Notícias da Madeira (in Portuguese). Funchal. 7 November 2024. Retrieved 8 November 2024.
  17. ↑ "Miguel Silva Gouveia: Voto a favor da moção de censura é a única opção". Diário de Notícias da Madeira (in Portuguese). Funchal. 7 November 2024. Retrieved 8 November 2024.
  18. ↑ "Chega disponível para eliminar da moção referências ao PS-Madeira". Diário de Notícias da Madeira (in Portuguese). Funchal. 7 November 2024. Retrieved 8 November 2024.
  19. ↑ "PS Madeira vai viabilizar a moção de censura (áudio)". RTP Madeira (in Portuguese). Funchal. 8 November 2024. Retrieved 8 November 2024.
  20. ↑ "PS-Madeira vota a favor da moção de censura do Chega a Albuquerque: decisão foi unânime". Expresso (in Portuguese). Funchal. 9 November 2024. Retrieved 10 November 2024.
  21. ↑ "Moção de censura ao Governo da Madeira adiada para 17 de dezembro". Sábado (in Portuguese). Funchal. 12 November 2024. Retrieved 12 November 2024.
  22. ↑ Carramanho, João (9 December 2024). "Orçamento da Madeira chumbado". RTP (in Portuguese). Lisbon. Retrieved 9 December 2024.
  23. ↑ "Miguel Albuquerque diz que Madeira fica "ligada à máquina" com a queda do Governo". SIC Notícias. 17 December 2024. Retrieved 17 December 2024.
  24. ↑ "Nuno Morna deixa a liderança da IL-Madeira". www.dnoticias.pt (in Portuguese). 17 June 2024. Retrieved 18 June 2024.
  25. ↑ "Nuno Morna mantém-se no parlamento". www.dnoticias.pt (in Portuguese). 17 June 2024. Retrieved 18 June 2024.
  26. ↑ "Duarte Gouveia é candidato a suceder Nuno Morna". www.dnoticias.pt (in Portuguese). 17 June 2024. Retrieved 18 June 2024.
  27. ↑ "Gonçalo Maia Camelo candidata-se à coordenação da IL Madeira". www.dnoticias.pt (in Portuguese). 13 July 2024. Retrieved 2 August 2024.
  28. ↑ "Duarte Gouveia retira candidatura à liderança da Iniciativa Liberal "em protesto"". www.jornaleconomico.sapo.pt (in Portuguese). 24 July 2024. Retrieved 2 August 2024.
  29. ↑ "Gonçalo Maia Camelo coordenador da IL na Madeira (áudio)". www.madeira.rtp.pt (in Portuguese). 27 July 2024. Retrieved 2 August 2024.
  30. 1 2 "Miguel Castro, José Fernandes e Magna Costa candidatos à liderança do Chega". www.dnoticias.pt (in Portuguese). 14 September 2024. Retrieved 21 September 2024.
  31. ↑ "Chega-Madeira esconde votação para liderança regional". www.dnoticias.pt (in Portuguese). 22 September 2024. Retrieved 22 September 2024.
  32. 1 2 "Miguel Castro reeleito líder do Chega Madeira". www.dnoticias.pt (in Portuguese). 22 September 2024. Retrieved 22 September 2024.
  33. ↑ Comissão Nacional de Eleições - Eleição para a Assembleia Legislativa da Região Autónoma da Madeira 2007
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