Next Madeiran regional election

Last updated
Next Madeiran regional election
Flag of Madeira.svg
←  2024 On or before October 2028
47 seats to the Legislative Assembly of Madeira
24 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Vasco Cordeiro e Miguel Albuquerque.jpg
Paulo Cafofo, Secretario de Estado das Comunidades Portuguesas 2022.png
JPP
Leader Miguel Albuquerque Paulo Cafôfo Élvio Sousa
Party PSD PS JPP
Leader since10 January 20152 December 202327 January 2015
Last election19 seats, 36.1%11 seats, 21.3%9 seats, 16.9%
Seats neededIncrease2.svg 5Increase2.svg 13Increase2.svg 15
 
CH
Jose Manuel Rodrigues (24.o Congresso Nacional do PS, 2024).png
IL
Leader Miguel Castro José Manuel Rodrigues TBD
Party CH CDS–PP IL
Leader since202214 April 20242024
Last election4 seats, 9.2%2 seats, 4.0%1 seats, 2.6%
Seats neededIncrease2.svg 20Increase2.svg 22Increase2.svg 23
 
PAN
Leader Mónica Freitas
Party PAN
Leader since2023
Last election1 seats, 1.9%
Seats neededIncrease2.svg 23
Incumbent President

Miguel Albuquerque
PSD



The next Madeiran regional election will be held on or before October 2028, the composition of the Legislative Assembly of the Autonomous Region of Madeira. The election will replace all 47 members of the Madeira Assembly, and the new members will then elect the President of the Autonomous Region.

Contents

The incumbent President since 2015 is Miguel Albuquerque, from the Social Democratic Party (PSD). The Social Democrats are defending their dominance in the islands, which they have held since 1976.

Background

After the 2024 election, despite being marred in an ongoing corruption investigation, the Social Democratic Party was once again the most voted party with 36.1 percent of the votes. Despite their victory, the PSD failed to win a majority of the seats. [1]

The Socialist Party (PS) led by former Funchal mayor Paulo Cafôfo achieved a similar result to the 2023 elections, with 21.3 percent of the votes. The big surprise of the election was the regionalist party Together for the People (JPP), who gained 4 seats from their previous 5 seats and who achieved 16.9 percent of the votes. [2] After the election, PS and JPP struck a deal in order to make a coalition government and prevent a government led by Albuquerque, despite not having a majority. [3]

Miguel Albuquerque negotiated a parliamentary support agreement with the CDS–People's Party (CDS–PP), their previous coalition partners, in order to form a minority government. [4] Albuquerque was appointed as President and will have a vote of confidence in the regional parliament. [5]

Albuquerque presented his government programme to the Speaker of the Regional Parliament, José Manuel Rodrigues, on 14 June 2024, with Miguel Albuqerque saying that policies of all Opposition parties were included in the document. [6] However, the Socialist Party (PS), Together for the People (JPP) and Chega (CH) announced they would vote against Albuquerque in the vote of confidence on 20 June 2024, thus putting at risk the continuity of the regional government. [7] Facing a rejection, Albuquerque withdrew, on 19 June, his programme from the assembly and announced negotiations to present a new one, thus cancelling the 20 June vote. [8] After negotiations with Opposition parties, mainly Chega, IL, CDS–PP and PAN, Miguel Albuquerque presented, on 2 July, a new government programme that was voted on 4 July, but which had no certainties of passing at the moment it was presented. [9] On 4 July 2024, Albuquerque's government passed in the regional assembly, with 22 votes in favour, from PSD, CDS–PP and PAN, 21 votes against, from PS, JPP and Chega member Magna Costa, and four abstentions by IL and the three members from Chega. [10]

Leadership changes and challenges

Liberal Initiative

Nuno Morna, regional party leader, announced on 16 June 2024 he was stepping down from the party's leadership, but remaining as regional Parliament member. [11] [12] Duarte Gouveia, Morna's predecessor in the leadership post, announced his intention to return to the party's leadership. [13]

Electoral system

The current 47 members of the Madeiran regional parliament are elected in a single constituency by proportional representation under the D'Hondt method, coinciding with the territory of the Region. [14]

Parties

Current composition

The table below lists parties represented in the Legislative Assembly of Madeira before the election.

NameIdeologyLeader2024 result
 %Seats
PSD Social Democratic Party
Partido Social Democrata		 Liberal conservatism Miguel Albuquerque 36.1%
19 / 47
PS Socialist Party
Partido Socialista		 Social democracy Paulo Cafôfo 21.3%
11 / 47
JPP Together for the People
Juntos pelo Povo		 Centrism Élvio Sousa 16.9%
9 / 47
CH Enough!
Chega!		 National conservatism Miguel Castro 9.2%
4 / 47
CDS–PP CDS – People's Party
Centro Democrático Social – Partido Popular		 Christian democracy José Manuel Rodrigues 4.0%
2 / 47
IL Liberal Initiative
Iniciativa Liberal		 Classical liberalism TBD2.6%
1 / 47
PAN People Animals Nature
Pessoas Animais Natureza		 Animal welfare Mónica Freitas 1.9%
1 / 47

Opinion polls

Polls that show their results without distributing those respondents who are undecided or said they would abstain from voting, are re-calculated by removing these numbers from the totals through a simple rule of three, in order to obtain results comparable to other polls and the official election results.

Polling

Polling firm/LinkFieldwork dateSample sizeTurnout PSD Logo Simples.png Cds simbolo 2.png Letras PS (Portugal).png
Logo Juntos pelo Povo.png
Logo Chega!.png Iniciativa Liberal Icon.png Logo Pessoas-Animais-Natureza (text only).png Simbolo CDU (PCP-PEV) (Letras).png LeftBloc.svg OLead
2024 EP election 9 Jun 2024—41.642.7
(23)		26.0
(14)		—9.1
(4)		5.4
(2)		1.9
(1)		1.9
(1)		2.9
(1)		10.1
(1)		16.7
2024 regional election 26 May 2024—53.436.1
19		4.0
2		21.3
11		16.9
9		9.2
4		2.6
1		1.9
1		1.6
0		1.4
0		5.0
0		14.8

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References

  1. ↑ SAPO. "PSD vence na Madeira, mas sem maioria". SAPO 24 (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2024-06-15.
  2. ↑ Cunha, Mariana Lima. "JPP soma vitória eleitoral na Madeira. Afinal, qual é o segredo do partido dos "irmãos gauleses"?". Observador (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2024-06-15.
  3. ↑ "PS Madeira e Juntos pelo Povo querem governar e não viabilizam PSD". Jornal de Notícias (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2024-06-15.
  4. ↑ ECO (2024-05-28). "Miguel Albuquerque confirma acordo com CDS para apoio parlamentar na Madeira". ECO (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2024-06-15.
  5. ↑ ECO (2024-05-28). "Miguel Albuquerque será indigitado presidente do Governo Regional da Madeira". ECO (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 2024-06-15.
  6. ↑ "Albuquerque diz haver condições para aprovar programa do Governo da Madeira". www.publico.com (in Portuguese). 14 June 2024. Retrieved 16 June 2024.
  7. ↑ "Viabilização do Programa do Governo da Madeira em risco. JPP vai votar contra". www.sapo.pt (in Portuguese). 15 June 2024. Retrieved 16 June 2024.
  8. ↑ "Albuquerque retira Programa do Governo de votação". www.dnoticias.pt (in Portuguese). 19 June 2024. Retrieved 19 June 2024.
  9. ↑ "Albuquerque diz-se confiante e promete levar Programa do Governo da Madeira "até ao fim"". www.rtp.pt (in Portuguese). 2 July 2024. Retrieved 2 July 2024.
  10. ↑ "Programa do Governo passa com votos a favor de PSD, CDS e PAN". Diário de Notícias da Madeira (in Portuguese). Funchal. 4 July 2024. Retrieved 4 July 2024.
  11. ↑ "Nuno Morna deixa a liderança da IL-Madeira". www.dnoticias.pt (in Portuguese). 17 June 2024. Retrieved 18 June 2024.
  12. ↑ "Nuno Morna mantém-se no parlamento". www.dnoticias.pt (in Portuguese). 17 June 2024. Retrieved 18 June 2024.
  13. ↑ "Duarte Gouveia é candidato a suceder Nuno Morna". www.dnoticias.pt (in Portuguese). 17 June 2024. Retrieved 18 June 2024.
  14. ↑ Comissão Nacional de Eleições - Eleição para a Assembleia Legislativa da Região Autónoma da Madeira 2007
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