Next Madeiran regional election

Last updated

Next Madeiran regional election
Flag of Madeira.svg
←  2025 On or before 14 October 2029
47 seats to the Legislative Assembly of Madeira
24 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Miguel Albuquerque, Conferencias do Mar, Crescimento Azul, A Madeira, As Regioes Ultraperifericas e o Atlantico, Funchal, 10 de julho de 2017 - Image 141026 (cropped).jpg
Elvio Sousa interviewed by Agencia Lusa, May 2025 (cropped).png
Celia Pecegueiro nas cerimonias do Dia da Cidade - 2018-08-21 - Image 151848 (cropped).jpg
Leader Miguel Albuquerque Élvio Sousa Célia Pessegueiro
Party PSD JPP PS
Leader since10 January 201527 January 201513 December 2025
Last election23 seats, 43.4%11 seats, 21.1%8 seats, 15.6%
Seats neededIncrease2.svg 1Increase2.svg 13Increase2.svg 16
 
Miguel Castro - CHEGA.jpg
Jose Manuel Rodrigues (24.o Congresso Nacional do PS, 2024).png
Iniciativa Liberal Icon.png
Leader Miguel Castro José Manuel Rodrigues Gonçalo Maia Camelo
Party CH CDS–PP IL
Leader since12 March 202214 April 202427 July 2024
Last election3 seats, 5.5%1 seat, 3.0%1 seat, 2.2%
Seats neededIncrease2.svg 21Increase2.svg 23Increase2.svg 23
Incumbent President

Miguel Albuquerque
PSD



The next Madeiran regional election will be held on or before 14 October 2029, [1] the composition of the Legislative Assembly of the Autonomous Region of Madeira. The election will replace all 47 members of the Madeira Assembly, and the new members will then elect the President of the Autonomous Region.

Contents

The incumbent President since 2015 is Miguel Albuquerque, from the Social Democratic Party (PSD). The Social Democrats will defend their dominance in the islands, which they have held since 1976.

Background

Despite the suspicions regarding corruption investigations, [2] the Social Democratic Party (PSD), led by Miguel Albuquerque, won another victory, with 43.4% of the votes and 23 seats, one short of a majority. The PSD signed an agreement with the CDS – People's Party, who elected one MP, securing a majority coalition regional government. [3]

The regionalist party Together for the People, led by Élvio Sousa, gained 21.1% of the votes and 11 seats, surpassing the Socialist Party of Paulo Cafôfo and becoming the leader of the opposition. [4]

Meanwhile, the far-right party Chega, led by Miguel Castro, lost ground, gaining only 5.5% of the votes and losing one of their 4 seats, while the Liberal Initiative kept their single seat. People Animals Nature (PAN) lost its sole seat, while parties on the left-wing, mainly Left Bloc (BE) and the Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU) and but also LIVRE (L), failed to return or to be elected to the regional assembly. [5]

In the October 2025 local elections, the PSD and CDS–PP lists, alone or in coalition, won a combined 47% of the votes and 7 councils (4 PSD/CDS; 2 PSD; 1 CDS), holding Funchal, winning Ponta do Sol, but losing São Vicente to Chega. [6] JPP held on to Santa Cruz and became the second largest party in Funchal. The PS suffered a big defeat by losing one council and becoming the 4th party in Funchal, although holding on to Machico and Porto Moniz. [7]

Leadership changes and challenges

Socialist Party

Following the party's bad results in the March 2025 regional election and in the May 2025 legislative election, regional leader Paulo Cafôfo faced pressures to resign from the leadership. [8] On 26 May 2025, Cafôfo announced his resignation from the party's leadership and said that an election to elect a new leader would be held after the 2025 local elections, without him running again. [9] On 14 October 2025, the outgoing mayor of Machico, Ricardo Franco, announced his intention to seek the leadership of the party. [10] A few days later, former mayor of Ponta do Sol, Célia Pessegueiro, also announced her bid for the party's leadership. [11] A leadership ballot was called for 13 December 2025. [12] Ricardo Franco ended up withrawing from the race, leaving Célia Pessegueiro as the sole candidate. [13] Célia Pessegueiro ended up being elected with 98.8% of the votes, [14] becoming the first woman to lead the party: [15]

Ballot: 13 December 2025
CandidateVotes%
Célia Pessegueiro 1,12498.8
Blank/Invalid ballots141.2
Turnout1,13870.99
Source: Results

Electoral system

The current 47 members of the Madeiran regional parliament are elected in a single constituency by proportional representation under the D'Hondt method, coinciding with the territory of the Region. [16] The next regional election is scheduled to be held between 22 September and 14 October 2029, if the legislature lasts its full 4-year term. [1]

Parties

Current composition

The table below lists parties represented in the Legislative Assembly of Madeira before the election.

NameIdeologyLeader2024 resultStatus
%Seats

PPD/PSD Social Democratic Party
Partido Social Democrata		 Liberal conservatism Miguel Albuquerque 43.4%
23 / 47
Governing coalition

JPP Together for the People
Juntos pelo Povo		 Social liberalism Élvio Sousa 21.1%
11 / 47
Opposition

PS Socialist Party
Partido Socialista		 Social democracy Célia Pessegueiro 15.6%
8 / 47

CH Enough!
Chega!		 National conservatism Miguel Castro 5.5%
3 / 47

CDS–PP CDS – People's Party
Centro Democrático Social – Partido Popular		 Christian democracy José Manuel Rodrigues 3.0%
1 / 47
Governing coalition

IL Liberal Initiative
Iniciativa Liberal		 Classical liberalism Gonçalo Maia Camelo 2.2%
1 / 47
Opposition

Opinion polls

Polls that show their results without distributing those respondents who are undecided or said they would abstain from voting, are re-calculated by removing these numbers from the totals through a simple rule of three, in order to obtain results comparable to other polls and the official election results.

Polling firm/LinkFieldwork dateSample sizeTurnout PSD Logo Simples.png Cds simbolo 2.png
Logo Juntos pelo Povo.png
Letras PS (Portugal).png Logo Chega!.svg Iniciativa Liberal Icon.png Simbolo CDU (PCP-PEV) (Letras).png Logo Pessoas-Animais-Natureza (text only).png LeftBloc.svg OLead
2025 local elections 12 Oct 2025—54.347.1
(25)		18.1
(9)		13.4
(7)		11.3
(6)		1.4
(0)		1.4
(0)		0.6
(0)		0.5
(0)		6.2
(0)		29.0
2025 legislative election 18 May 2025—54.341.4
(22)		12.3
(6)		13.5
(7)		20.9
(11)		2.6
(1)		1.3
(0)		1.0
(0)		1.4
(0)		5.7
(0)		20.5
2025 regional election 23 Mar 2025—56.043.4
23		3.0
1		21.1
11		15.6
8		5.5
3		2.2
1		1.8
0		1.6
0		1.1
0		4.7
0		22.3

References

  1. 1 2 "Lei Orgânica n.º 1-A/2025, de 27 de janeiro". Diário da República (in Portuguese). 27 January 2025. Retrieved 23 May 2025.
  2. ↑ Begonha, Ana Bacelar (20 March 2025). "Entre suspeições, Madeira vai a votos com acordos cruzados em cima da mesa". Público (in Portuguese). Retrieved 23 May 2025.
  3. ↑ Portugal, Rádio e Televisão de (26 March 2025). "Madeira. PSD e CDS-PP assinaram acordo para solução de governo maioritário". Madeira. PSD e CDS-PP assinaram acordo para solução de governo maioritário (in Portuguese). Retrieved 23 May 2025.
  4. ↑ Santos, Inês André Figueiredo, Miguel Pereira. "Juntos pelo Povo. Gauleses roubaram a prata ao PS e são os únicos da oposição a crescer". Observador (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 23 May 2025.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  5. ↑ Coutinho, Margarida (24 March 2025). "Esquerda reconhece derrota na Madeira, mas recusa leituras nacionais: "Na República, quem criou instabilidade foi o PSD"". Expresso (in Portuguese). Retrieved 23 May 2025.
  6. ↑ "Albuquerque reclama vitória do PSD/Madeira na região vencendo seis concelhos". RTP Notícias (in Portuguese). 12 October 2025. Retrieved 24 October 2025.
  7. ↑ "PSD segura o Funchal e reforça número de câmaras na Madeira". Público (in Portuguese). 13 October 2025. Retrieved 24 October 2025.
  8. ↑ "Solução para o PS passa pela saída de Paulo Cafôfo (vídeo)". RTP Madeira (in Portuguese). 19 May 2025.
  9. ↑ Lusa, Agência (26 May 2025). "PS/Madeira convoca eleições após autárquicas. Cafôfo não se recandidata". Notícias ao Minuto (in Portuguese). Retrieved 1 June 2025.
  10. ↑ Lusa (14 October 2025). "Ricardo Franco candidata-se à liderança do PS-Madeira depois da demissão de Cafôfo". PÚBLICO (in Portuguese). Retrieved 21 October 2025.
  11. ↑ "Célia Pessegueiro confirma candidatura à liderança do PS-Madeira". Sapo (in European Portuguese). 23 October 2025. Retrieved 24 October 2025.
  12. ↑ "PS Madeira marca eleições internas para 13 de dezembro e congresso para janeiro de 2026". SIC Notícias (in European Portuguese). 24 October 2025. Retrieved 24 October 2025.
  13. ↑ "Ricardo Franco desiste da corrida à liderança do PS-Madeira (áudio) | RTP Madeira" (in European Portuguese). Retrieved 4 December 2025.
  14. ↑ Pacifico, Marianna. "Célia Pessegueiro eleita presidente do PS-Madeira com 98,78% dos votos". DNOTICIAS.PT (in Portuguese). Retrieved 13 December 2025.
  15. ↑ Borges, Liliana (13 December 2025). "Célia Pessegueiro eleita presidente do PS-Madeira com 98,78% dos votos". publico.pt (in Portuguese). Retrieved 14 December 2025.
  16. ↑ "Comissão Nacional de Eleições - Eleição para a Assembleia Legislativa da Região Autónoma da Madeira 2007".
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