2023 Madeiran regional election

2023 Madeiran regional election

←  2019 24 September 2023 2024  →
47 seats to the Legislative Assembly of Madeira 24 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout	53.3% 2.2 pp
First party Second party Third party   PS JPP Leader Miguel Albuquerque Sérgio Gonçalves Élvio Sousa Party PSD PS JPP Alliance We Are Madeira Leader since 10 January 2015 [lower-alpha 1] 13 March 2022 27 January 2015 Last election 24 seats, 45.2% [lower-alpha 2] 19 seats, 35.8% 3 seats, 5.5% Seats won 23 11 5 Seat change 1 8 2 Popular vote 58,394 28,840 14,933 Percentage 43.1% 21.3% 11.0% Swing 2.1 pp 14.5 pp 5.5 pp   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   CH IL Leader Miguel Castro Edgar Silva Nuno Morna Party CH PCP IL Alliance CDU Leader since 2022 1996 2019 Last election 0 seats, 0.4% 1 seats, 1.8% 0 seats, 0.5% Seats won 4 1 1 Seat change 4 0 1 Popular vote 12,029 3,677 3,555 Percentage 8.9% 2.7% 2.6% Swing 8.5 pp 0.9 pp 1.1 pp   Seventh party Eighth party   PAN BE Leader Mónica Freitas Roberto Almada Party PAN BE Leader since 2023 2023 Last election 0 seats, 1.5% 0 seats, 1.7% Seats won 1 1 Seat change 1 1 Popular vote 3,046 3,035 Percentage 2.2% 2.2% Swing 0.6 pp 0.5 pp
President before election Miguel Albuquerque PSD Elected President Miguel Albuquerque PSD

Regional elections were held in Madeira on 24 September 2023, ^[1] to determine the composition of the Legislative Assembly of the Autonomous Region of Madeira. The election replaced all 47 members of the Madeira Assembly, and the new members will then elect the President of the Autonomous Region.

The incumbent president, Miguel Albuquerque from the Social Democratic Party (PSD), led a coalition government between the Social Democrats and the CDS – People's Party, and defended the dominance of the Social Democratic Party in the islands since 1976. The PSD and CDS–PP contested the election in a joint coalition. ^[2]

The "We are Madeira" coalition, between the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the CDS – People's Party (CDS–PP), won the election with 43% of the votes but, despite polling predictions, failed to hold on to their majority and won 23 seats, one short of a majority. On election night, Miguel Albuquerque announced he would present a "parliamentary majority solution" very shortly, but didn't give much details nor said with whom, although he refused any talks with CHEGA. ^[3]

The Socialist Party (PS) suffered a big fall in support gathering just 21% of the votes and 11 seats, compared with their best results ever in 2019, almost 36% and 19 seats. Unlike 2019, it failed to win a single parish and municipality. ^[4] Together for the People (JPP) had their best showing ever, winning 11% of the votes and 5 seats, two more compared with 2019. ^[5]

Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU) was able to hold on to their sole seat and even increased their share of vote to 2.7%, compared with the 1.8% in 2019. ^[6] CHEGA (CH), which faced legal disputes regarding their presence on the ballot due to annulments of internal party decisions and that were settled with a Constitutional Court ruling that confirmed that the party could be on the ballot, ^[7] had a very strong showing, winning almost 9% of the votes and electing 4 members to the regional parliament, a 8.5% growth compared with 2019. ^[8]

The Liberal Initiative (IL) won 2.6% of the votes and elected one seat. The regional leader, Nuno Morna said he was open to talks with the PSD/CDS–PP coalition. ^[9] Likewise, People-Animals-Nature (PAN), who won 2.2% of the votes and returned after 8 years to the regional parliament, was also open to supporting a PSD/CDS–PP government. ^[10] Left Bloc (BE) polled 2.2% and also returned to the Madeira Parliament after losing their seat in 2019.

Two days after the election, PAN and the PSD/CDS–PP signed a deal that ensured a majority in the regional Parliament. ^[11] PSD/CDS–PP accepted a series of PAN demands and Miguel Albuquerque said he was "very pleased" by the outcome of the deal. ^[12] Also, Albuquerque didn't rule out occasional agreements with the Liberal Initiative. ^[13]

The turnout in these elections decreased compared to the previous one, with 53.3% of voters casting a ballot, compared with the 55.5% in the 2019 elections.

Background

In the 2019 regional election, the PSD was again the most voted party, 39%, but failed for the first time to win an absolute majority. ^[14] The party was followed closely by the PS which polled at almost 36%. After the elections, PSD and CDS–PP formed a coalition government which guaranteed an absolute majority in the regional parliament. ^[15]

In the aftermath of the 2021 local elections, in which the PS lost a lot of ground, especially the loss of Funchal to a PSD/CDS–PP coalition, ^[16] the then PS leader Paulo Cafôfo resigned from the leadership and refused to run again. ^[17] In the following PS leadership election, in February 2022, Sérgio Gonçalves was elected as the new leader with 98.6% of the votes. ^[18]

Electoral system

The current 47 members of the Madeiran regional parliament are elected in a single constituency by proportional representation under the D'Hondt method, coinciding with the territory of the Region. ^[19]

Parties

Current composition

The table below lists parties represented in the Legislative Assembly of Madeira before the election.

Name			Ideology	Leader	2019 result
					%	Seats
	PSD	Social Democratic Party Partido Social Democrata	Liberal conservatism	Miguel Albuquerque	39.4%	21 / 47
	PS	Socialist Party Partido Socialista	Social democracy	Sérgio Gonçalves	35.8%	19 / 47
	CDS-PP	CDS – People's Party Centro Democrático Social – Partido Popular	Conservatism	Rui Barreto	5.8%	3 / 47
	JPP	Together for the People Juntos pelo Povo	Centrism	Élvio Sousa	5.5%	3 / 47
	PCP	Portuguese Communist Party Partido Comunista Português	Communism	Edgar Silva	1.8% [lower-alpha 3]	1 / 47

Parties running in the election

13 parties/coalitions were on the ballot for the 2023 Madeira regional election. The parties/coalitions that contested the election and their lead candidates were: (parties/coalitions are ordered by the way they appeared on the ballot) ^[20]

• Portuguese Labour Party (PTP), Quintino Costa
• Together for the People (JPP), Élvio Sousa
• Left Bloc (BE), Roberto Almada ^[21]
• Socialist Party (PS), Sérgio Gonçalves
• Enough (CH), Miguel Castro ^[22]
• React, Include, Recycle (RIR), Roberto Vieira ^[23]
• Earth Party (MPT), Valter Rodrigues ^[24]
• National Democratic Alternative (ADN), Miguel Pita ^[25]
• Social Democratic Party/CDS – People's Party We are Madeira coalition (PSD/CDS–PP), Miguel Albuquerque
• People-Animals-Nature (PAN), Mónica Freitas ^{[26] [27]}
• LIVRE (L), Tiago Camacho ^[28]
• Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU), Edgar Silva
• Liberal Initiative (IL), Nuno Morna ^[29]

Campaign period

Party slogans

Party or alliance		Original slogan	English translation	Refs
	PSD/CDS–PP	« Somos Madeira »	"We are Madeira"	[30]
	PS	« O voto que muda a Madeira »	"The vote that changes Madeira"	[31]
	JPP	« Em frente. Sem medo! »	"Forward. Without fear!"	[32]
	CDU	« Viver melhor na nossa terra! »	"Live better in our land!"	[33]
	BE	« O Bloco faz falta »	"The Bloc is needed"	[34]
	PAN	« O voto que faz a diferença »	"The vote that makes the difference"	[35]
	IL	« O liberalismo funciona. E faz falta à Madeira »	"Liberalism works. And Madeira needs it"	[36]
	CH	« Vamos acabar com a corrupção na Madeira! »	"Let's end corruption in Madeira!"	[37]

Election debates

2023 Madeiran regional election debates

Date	Organisers	Moderator(s)	P Present [lower-alpha 4]   S Surrogate [lower-alpha 5]   NI Not invited  I Invited   A Absent invitee
			PSD/CDS	PS	JPP	CDU	BE	PAN	RIR	PTP	IL	CH	ADN	MPT	L	Ref.
24 Aug	RTP Madeira	Gil Rosa	NI	NI	NI	NI	NI	NI	NI	NI	P Morna	A	P Pita	P Rodrigues	P Camacho	[38]
31 Aug	RTP Madeira	Gil Rosa	NI	NI	NI	NI	P Almada	P Freitas	P Vieira	P Costa	NI	NI	NI	NI	NI	[39]
7 Sep	RTP Madeira	Gil Rosa	P Albuquerque	P Gonçalves	P Sousa	P Silva	NI	NI	NI	NI	NI	NI	NI	NI	NI	[40]

Opinion polls

Polling

Polls that showed their results without distributing those respondents who were undecided or said they would abstain from voting, were re-calculated by removing those numbers from the totals through a simple rule of three, in order to obtain results comparable to other polls and the official election results.
  Exit poll

Polling firm/Link	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout										O	Lead
2023 regional election	24 Sep 2023	—	53.3	43.1 23		21.3 11	11.0 5	2.7 1	2.2 1	2.3 1	2.6 1	8.9 4	4.9 0	21.8
CESOP–UCP	24 Sep 2023	8,021	52–56	44–48 23/26		18–21 9/12	9–12 4/6	2–3 1	2–3 1	1–3 0/1	2–4 1	8–10 3/5		26.5
CESOP–UCP	16–17 Sep 2023	1,613	?	50.0 24/28		23.0 10/13	7.0 2/4	2.0 0/1	3.0 1/2	1.5 0/1	1.5 0/1	7.0 2/4	5.0 0	27.0
Intercampus [lower-alpha 6]	29 Aug–13 Sep 2023	603	?	49.0 26		22.8 12	9.5 5	1.7 0	1.7 0	1.0 0	3.0 1	6.8 3	4.5 0	26.2
Aximage [lower-alpha 7]	28 Aug–10 Sep 2023	602	?	58.4 30		15.5 8	8.4 4	3.2 1	1.7 0	1.9 0	4.5 2	4.5 2	1.9 0	42.9
Metris	21–26 Aug 2023	402	?	52.5 24/28		21.5 10/14	10.0 4/6	1.1 0/1	1.1 0/1	1.5 0/1	3.8 1/2	6.1 2/4	2.4 0	31.0
Aximage [lower-alpha 8]	10–23 Jul 2023	611	?	57.2 30		15.6 8	10.0 5	2.0 1	1.6 0	1.5 0	3.5 1	4.7 2	3.9 0	41.6
Aximage [lower-alpha 9]	23 May–5 Jun 2023	604	?	54.0 28		16.8 8	11.6 6	1.3 0	2.6 1	2.0 1	2.6 1	4.8 2	4.3 0	37.2
Intercampus [lower-alpha 10]	15–24 May 2023	404	?	44.9 23		28.5 14	7.9 4	1.7 0	1.0 0	2.1 1	4.7 2	6.2 3	3.0 0	16.4
Aximage [lower-alpha 11]	14–24 Feb 2023	603	?	55.0 29		16.8 8	13.8 7	1.9 1	1.4 0	0.9 0	3.2 1	3.6 1	3.4 0	38.2
Intercampus [lower-alpha 12] [lower-alpha 13]	20–30 Jan 2023	400	?	45.2		29.5	8.4	1.1	2.1	1.7	4.2	6.7	1.1	15.7
				44.7	1.7	30.2	8.3	1.4	2.8	1.1	2.8	6.2	1.1	14.5
Aximage [lower-alpha 14] [lower-alpha 15]	14–26 Oct 2022	601	58.4	54.0		26.6	9.4	1.1	0.9	0.2	2.3	2.7	2.9	27.4
				51.5	5.2	25.1	8.9	0.7	0.8	0.2	2.0	2.6	2.7	26.4
Aximage	30 Jul–5 Aug 2022	414	65.9	50.1		18.6	10.1	1.5	1.9	1.9	3.3	4.1	8.5	31.5
				52.6	1.9	17.3	9.2	1.7	1.9	1.1	2.5	3.2	8.6	35.3
2022 legislative elections	30 Jan 2022	—	49.6	39.8		31.5	6.9	2.0	3.2	1.6	3.3	6.1	5.2	8.3
2021 local elections	26 Sep 2021	—	54.6	43.0	3.4	29.5	10.0	2.0	0.0	—	1.2	2.5	8.4	13.5
Aximage	5–8 Jun 2020	415	?	42.2	2.3	27.5	—	2.1	2.1	—	—	—	23.8	14.7
2019 legislative election	6 Oct 2019	—	50.3	37.2	6.1	33.4	5.5	2.1	5.2	1.8	0.7	0.7	7.4	3.8
2019 regional election	22 Sep 2019	—	55.5	39.4 21	5.8 3	35.8 19	5.5 3	1.8 1	1.7 0	1.5 0	0.5 0	0.4 0	7.6 0	3.6

Hypothetical polling

Paulo Cafôfo as PS leader

Polling firm/Link	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout				JPP						O	Lead
Aximage	30 Jul–5 Aug 2022	414	65.9	48.1		18.6	11.4	1.2	2.8	1.6	3.6	3.5	9.2	29.5
				48.3	2.4	20.6	10.7	1.7	1.9	1.1	2.2	3.5	7.6	27.7

Voter turnout

The table below shows voter turnout throughout election day.

Turnout	Time
	12:00			16:00			19:00
	2019	2023	±	2019	2023	±	2019	2023	±
Total	20.97%	20.98%	0.01 pp	40.79%	39.90%	0.89 pp	55.51%	53.35%	2.16 pp
Sources [41] [42]

Results

Summary of the 24 September 2023 Legislative Assembly of Madeira elections results

Parties		Votes	%	±pp swing	MPs					MPs %/ votes %
					2019	2023	±	%	±
	We are Madeira (PSD/CDS–PP)	58,394	43.11	2.1	24	23	1	48.94	2.1	1.14
	Socialist	28,840	21.29	14.5	19	11	8	23.40	17.0	1.10
	Together for the People	14,933	11.03	5.6	3	5	2	10.63	4.2	0.96
	CHEGA	12,029	8.88	8.5	0	4	4	8.51	8.5	0.96
	Unitary Democratic Coalition	3,677	2.71	0.9	1	1	0	2.13	0.0	0.79
	Liberal Initiative	3,555	2.62	2.1	0	1	1	2.13	2.1	0.81
	People-Animals-Nature	3,046	2.25	0.8	0	1	1	2.13	2.1	0.95
	Left Bloc	3,035	2.24	0.5	0	1	1	2.13	2.1	0.95
	Labour	1,369	1.01	0.0	0	0	0	0.00	0.0	0.0
	LIVRE	858	0.63	—	—	0	—	0.00	—	0.0
	React, Include, Recycle	727	0.54	0.7	0	0	0	0.00	0.0	0.0
	Earth	696	0.51	0.3	0	0	0	0.00	0.0	0.0
	National Democratic Alternative [lower-alpha 16]	617	0.46	0.0	0	0	0	0.00	0.0	0.0
Total valid		131,776	97.29	0.4	47	47	0	100.00	0.0	—
Blank ballots		842	0.62	0.1
Invalid ballots		2,828	2.09	0.3
Total		135,446	100.00
Registered voters/turnout		253,877	53.35	2.2
Sources: [43]

Vote share PSD/CDS–PP   43.11% PS   21.29% JPP   11.03% CH   8.88% CDU   2.71% IL   2.62% PAN   2.25% BE   2.24% PTP   1.01% Others   2.14% Blank/Invalid   2.71%

Parliamentary seats PSD/CDS–PP   48.94% PS   23.40% JPP   10.63% CH   8.51% CDU   2.13% IL   2.13% PAN   2.13% BE   2.13%

Maps

• 
  Most voted political force by municipality.

Aftermath

Government approval

With the loss of their majority, PSD and CDS–PP reached a deal with People-Animals-Nature (PAN) in order to ensure a parliamentary majority. ^[11] On 17 November 2023, the regional parliament approved Albuquerque's third government:

2023 Motion of confidence Miguel Albuquerque (PSD)
Ballot →		17 November 2023
Required majority →		Simple Y
	Yes • PSD (20) • CDS–PP (3) • PAN (1)	24 / 47
	No • PS (11) • JPP (5) • CH (4) • PCP (1) • IL (1) • BE (1)	23 / 47
	Abstentions	0 / 47
	Absentees	0 / 47
Sources [44]

Resignation of Miguel Albuquerque

On 24 January 2024, the Judiciary Police and the Public Prosecutor's office conducted a series of searches all across Madeira, from government offices to private companies, regarding corruption and abuse of power accusations surrounding real estate businesses in the region. ^[45] The mayor of Funchal, Pedro Calado, and two businessmen were arrested by the police, while Miguel Albuquerque was named as a formal suspect. ^[46] At first, Albuquerque refused to resign, but due to PAN's threat of withdrawing their support from the PSD/CDS-PP minority government, Miguel Abuquerque retracted his earlier position and resigned from office. ^[47]

Notes

1. As leader of the Social Democratic Party (PSD). The leader of the Madeira People's Party (CDS–PP) is the Regional Secretary for Economic Affairs Rui Barreto.
2. Sum of votes and seats of the PSD and the CDS–PP in the 2019 election. PSD: 39.4%, 21 seats; CDS–PP: 5.8%, 3 seats.
3. The Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) and the Ecologist Party "The Greens" (PEV) contested the 2019 election jointly as the Unitary Democratic Coalition, and won a combined 1.8% of the vote and elected 1 MP to parliament.
4. Denotes a main invitee attending the event.
5. Denotes a main invitee not attending the event, sending a surrogate in their place.
6. Results presented here exclude undecideds (29.3%). With their inclusion results are: PSD/CDS-PP: 34.6%; PS: 16.1%; JPP: 6.7%; CHEGA: 4.8%; IL: 2.1%; BE: 1.2%; CDU: 1.2%; BE: PAN%; Others/Invalid: 3.2%.
7. Results presented here exclude undecideds (9.5%). With their inclusion results are: PSD/CDS-PP: 52.9%; PS: 14.0%; JPP: 7.6%; CHEGA: 4.1%; IL: 4.1%; CDU: 2.9%; PAN: 1.7%; BE: 1.5%; Others/Invalid: 1.7%.
8. Results presented here exclude undecideds (13.3%). With their inclusion results are: PSD/CDS-PP: 49.6%; PS: 13.5%; JPP: 8.7%; CHEGA: 4.1%; IL: 3.0%; CDU: 1.7%; BE: 1.4%; PAN: 1.3%; Others/Invalid: 3.4%.
9. Results presented here exclude undecideds (13.1%). With their inclusion results are: PSD/CDS-PP: 46.9%; PS: 14.6%; JPP: 10.1%; CHEGA: 4.2%; BE: 2.3%; IL: 2.3%; PAN: 1.7%; CDU: 1.1%; Others/Invalid: 3.7%.
10. Results presented here exclude undecideds (23.6%). With their inclusion results are: PSD/CDS-PP: 34.3%; PS: 21.8%; JPP: 6.0%; CHEGA: 4.7%; IL: 3.6%; PAN: 1.6%; CDU: 1.3%; BE: 0.8%; Others/Invalid: 3.0%.
11. Results presented here exclude undecideds (9.0%). With their inclusion results are: PSD/CDS-PP: 50.0%; PS: 15.3%; JPP: 12.6%; CHEGA: 3.3%; IL: 2.9%; CDU: 1.7%; BE: 1.3%; PAN: 0.8%; Others/Invalid: 3.1%.
12. Results presented here exclude undecideds + non voters (25.4% + 3.2%). With their inclusion results are: PSD/CDS-PP: 32.2%; PS: 21.0%; JPP: 6.0%; CHEGA: 4.8%; IL: 3.0%; BE: 1.5%; PAN: 1.2%; CDU: 0.8%; Others/Invalid: 0.8%.
13. Results presented here exclude undecideds + non voters (24.0% + 3.8%). With their inclusion results are: PSD: 32.2%; PS: 21.8%; JPP: 6.0%; CHEGA: 4.5%; IL: 2.0%; BE: 2.0%; CDS-PP: 1.2%; CDU: 1.0%; PAN: 0.8%; Others/Invalid: 0.8%.
14. Results presented here exclude undecideds (17.9%). With their inclusion results are: PSD/CDS-PP: 44.3%; PS: 21.8%; JPP: 7.7%; CHEGA: 2.2%; IL: 1.9%; CDU: 0.9%; BE: 0.7%; PAN: 0.2%; Others/Invalid: 2.4%.
15. Results presented here exclude undecideds (16.0%). With their inclusion results are: PSD: 43.3%; PS: 21.1%; JPP: 7.5%; CDS-PP: 4.4%; CHEGA: 2.2%; IL: 1.9%; CDU: 0.9%; BE: 0.7%; PAN: 0.2%; Others/Invalid: 2.4%.
16. In September 2021, the Democratic Republican Party (PDR) changed its name to the National Democratic Alternative (ADN).

References

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39. "Eleições Regionais 2023 - Debates Ep. 2". RTP Madeira (in Portuguese). 24 August 2023. Retrieved 1 September 2023.
40. "Eleições Regionais 2023 - Debates Ep. 3". RTP Madeira (in Portuguese). 7 September 2023. Retrieved 7 September 2023.
41. "Regionais 2019 - Afluência". eleicoes.mai.gov.pt/regionais2019/index.html (in Portuguese). Ministry of Internal Administration . Retrieved 12 June 2023.
42. "Regionais 2023 - Afluência". www.regionais2023.mai.gov.pt (in Portuguese). Ministry of Internal Administration . Retrieved 24 September 2023.
43. "Mapa Oficial n.º 1-A/2023, de 28 de setembro", Diário da República , 28 September 2023. Retrieved 28 September 2023.
44. "Programa do Governo da Madeira aprovado com apoio do PSD, CDS-PP e PAN". Renascença (in Portuguese). Lisbon. 17 November 2023. Retrieved 11 February 2024.
45. "Buscas na Madeira. Megaoperação envolveu quase 300 pessoas". RTP (in Portuguese). 2024-01-25. Retrieved 2024-01-25.
46. "PJ deteve presidente da Câmara do Funchal e dois construtores. Albuquerque constituído arguido". Público (in Portuguese). 2024-01-24. Retrieved 2024-01-25.
47. "Albuquerque irá renunciar à presidência do Governo Regional". Diário de Notícias da Madeira (in Portuguese). 2024-01-26. Retrieved 2024-01-26.

External links

• Election results
• Comissão Nacional de Eleições
• ERC - Official publication of polls