2019 Madeiran regional election

Last updated
2019 Madeiran regional election
Flag of Madeira.svg
←  2015 22 September 2019 2023  →
47 seats to the Legislative Assembly of Madeira
24 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout55.5% Increase2.svg 5.8 pp
 First partySecond partyThird party
 
Miguel Albuquerque, Conferencias do Mar, Crescimento Azul, A Madeira, As Regioes Ultraperifericas e o Atlantico, Funchal, 10 de julho de 2017 - Image 141026 (cropped).jpg
Paulo Cafofo, Secretario de Estado das Comunidades Portuguesas 2022.png
Cds simbolo 2.png
Leader Miguel Albuquerque Paulo Cafôfo [a] Rui Barreto
Party PSD PS CDS–PP
Leader since10 January 201519 January 2018
(PRGM candidate)		22 July 2018
Last election24 seats, 44.4%5 seats (CM) [b] 7 seats, 13.1%
Seats won21193
Seat changeDecrease2.svg 3Increase2.svg 14Decrease2.svg 4
Popular vote56,44951,2078,246
Percentage39.4%35.8%5.8%
SwingDecrease2.svg 4.9 pp [b] Decrease2.svg 7.9 pp
 Fourth partyFifth party
 
JPP
Edgar-silva-2016-01-11.jpg
Leader Élvio Sousa Edgar Silva
Party JPP CDU
Leader since27 January 20151996
Last election5 seats, 10.3%2 seats, 5.5%
Seats won31
Seat changeDecrease2.svg 2Decrease2.svg 1
Popular vote7,8302,577
Percentage5.5%1.8%
SwingDecrease2.svg 4.8 pp Decrease2.svg 3.7 pp
Eleicoes Legislativas Regionais na Madeira de 2019.svg
The most voted party by municipality.
President before election

Miguel Albuquerque
PSD

Elected President

Miguel Albuquerque
PSD

Regional elections were held on 22 September 2019 [1] to determine the composition of the Legislative Assembly of the Autonomous Region of Madeira in Portugal. All 47 members of the Assembly were up for election.

Contents

The Social Democratic Party continued their 43-year streak of being the largest party in the Madeiran legislature, but failed to hold on to their absolute majority, and would require a coalition for the first time to remain in power. The party won 39 percent of the votes, a decrease of 5 percentage points, and lost 3 members of the regional party. In the electoral map, the PSD lost the two biggest cities in Madeira, Funchal and Santa Cruz to the PS, although by less than 2 percent of the vote. Overall, the PSD still won the majority of municipalities, obtaining victory in 7 of the 11 in Madeira.

The Socialist Party surged in these elections, polling just two seats and 3.6 points behind the PSD. It was the best showing of the PS in a regional election in Madeira going back to the first regional elections in 1976, two years after the fall of the dictatorship. The party won 4 of the 11 municipalities in Madeira. The People's Party lost a lot of votes and seats in these elections, winning just 3 seats and 5.8 percent of the vote. Together for the People (JPP) also suffered a big setback by losing 2 members and almost 5 percent of the votes. It even failed to obtain second place in their traditional bastion of Santa Cruz, falling behind the PS and PSD. The Unitary Democratic Coalition lost 1 of their 2 seats, and lost 3.7 percent of votes compared to 2015. The Left Bloc was wiped from the regional Assembly completely and only won 1.7 percent of the votes. These elections were fought mainly between the PSD and PS, and many left-wing voters opted to vote tactically for the PS to prevent another PSD victory, but by doing so, they hurt the chances of smaller left-wing parties and alliances such as the Left Bloc and CDU. [2]

The turnout in these elections increased compared to the previous one for the first time in over a decade, with 55.5 percent of voters casting a ballot, compared with the record-low 49.6 percent in the 2015 elections.

Following the elections, PSD and CDS-PP formed a coalition government with a parliamentary majority, headed by Miguel Albuquerque. [3]

Background

Leadership changes and challenges

Socialist Party

After the party's dismal result in the 2015 reginal election, just 11 percent of the votes, the then PS leader, Victor Freitas resigned and a leadership ballot was called. [4] Carlos Pereira was the sole candidate for the leadership and was elected with 70% of the votes. [5] However, Pereira's leadership divided the party, as he spent much more time in the Assembly of the Republic, in Lisbon, rather than in Madeira. A leadership ballot was called for 19 January 2018 and two candidates were on the ballot: Incumbent leader Carlos Pereira and Porto Moniz mayor, Emanuel Câmara. Câmara defeated Pereira by a 57 to 43 percent margin. [6] The results were the following:

Ballot: 19 January 2018
CandidateVotes%
Emanuel Câmara 87756.8
Carlos Pereira 66843.2
Turnout1,54579.15
Source: [7]

Despite being elected leader, Emanuel Câmara announced that he would not be the party's candidate for the Presidency of the Regional Government and that he would pick Funchal mayor Paulo Cafôfo as the party's lead candidate. [8]

Electoral system

The current 47 members of the Madeiran regional parliament are elected in a single constituency by proportional representation under the D'Hondt method, coinciding with the territory of the Region. [9]

Parties

Current composition

The table below lists parties represented in the Legislative Assembly of Madeira before the election.

NameIdeologyLeader2015 result
 %Seats
PPD/PSD Social Democratic Party
Partido Social Democrata		 Liberal conservatism Miguel Albuquerque 44.4%
24 / 47
CDS–PP CDS – People's Party
Centro Democrático Social – Partido Popular		 Conservatism Rui Barreto 13.1%
7 / 47
PS Socialist Party
Partido Socialista		 Social democracy Emanuel Câmara [a]
Paulo Cafôfo 		11.4%
[b]
5 / 47
PTP Portuguese Labour Party
Partido Trabalhista Português		 Social democracy Quintino Costa
1 / 47
JPP Together for the People
Juntos pelo Povo		 Centrism Élvio Sousa 10.3%
5 / 47
PCP Portuguese Communist Party
Partido Comunista Português		 Communism Edgar Silva 5.5%
[c]
2 / 47
B.E. Left Bloc
Bloco de Esquerda		 Democratic socialism Paulino Ascenção 3.8%
2 / 47
Ind. Independent
Independente		 Gil Canha (elected for the now extinct PND)
1 / 47

Parties running in the election

17 parties were on the ballot for the 2019 Madeira regional election. The parties that contested the election and their lead candidates were: (parties/coalitions are ordered by the way they appeared on the ballot) [10]

Campaign period

Party slogans

Party or allianceOriginal sloganEnglish translationRefs
PSD « Cumprir no rumo certo »"Delivering on the right track" [21]
CDS–PP « Este é o momento »"This is the moment" [22]
PS « Coragem para mudar »"Courage to change" [23]
JPP « Dar voz aos Madeirenses »"Giving voice to Madeirans" [24]
BE « A Madeira para todos »"Madeira for all" [25]
CDU « CDU, o voto que conta »"CDU, the vote that counts" [26]

Candidates' debates

2019 Madeiran regional election debates
DateOrganisersModerator(s)   I Invitee   P Present   A Absent invitee N Non-invitee 
PSD
Albuquerque		 PS
Cafôfo		 CDS–PP
Barreto		 BE
Ascenção		 CDU
Silva		 JPP
Sousa		Refs
19 Sep RTP Madeira, RTP3 Gil RosaPPPPPP [27]

Opinion polls

Graphical summary

Polling

  Exit poll

Polling firm/LinkFieldwork dateSample sizeTurnout PSD (2018).png Cds simbolo 2.png PS Logo (Text version).png
Logo Juntos pelo Povo.png
Simbolo CDU (PCP-PEV) (Letras).png LeftBloc.svg Logo - Partido Trabalhista Portugues.png Logo Pessoas-Animais-Natureza (text only).png MPT (Simbolo Eleitoral).png Alianca (corto).png OLead
2019 regional election22 Sep 2019—55.5%39.4
21		5.8
3		35.8
19		5.5
3		1.8
1		1.7
0		1.0
0		1.5
0		0.4
0		0.5
0		6.6
0		3.6
UCP-CESOP 22 Sep 20196,000 ?37–41
19/23		5–7
2/3		34–38
17/21		3–5
1/2		1–3
0/1		1–3
0/1		-1–2
0/1		---3
Eurosondagem 15–17 Sep 20191,525 ?36.0
19		8.0
4		33.6
17/18		2.5
1		4.5
2		4.0
2		0.7
0		 ?
0/1		- ?
0/1		10.7
0/1		2.4
Intercampus 2–16 Sep 20191,503 ?39.0
21		9.3
5		33.1
17		3.4
1		3.9
2		2.2
1		----9.1
0		5.9
UCP-CESOP 14–15 Sep 20191,375 ?38
19/23		5
2/3		29
14/18		4
2/3		3
1/2		5
2/3		-2
1		1.5
0/1		1.5
0/1		11
0		9
Eurosondagem 21–24 Jul 20191,519 ?33.3
18/19		7.1
3/4		31.9
17/18		4.2
2		4.0
2		6.9
3/4		0.5
0		---12.0
0/1		1.4
2019 EP elections 26 May 2019—38.537.2
(22)		8.1
(4)		25.8
(15)		—3.0
(1)		5.3
(3)		1.3
(0)		3.7
(2)		—1.6
(0)		14.0
(0)		11.4
CDS-PP internal 8 Feb 2019 ? ?36.0
19/20		8.0
4/5		33.0
18/19		4.0
2		3.0
1		3.0
1		2.0
0/1		---11.0
0		3.0
Eurosondagem 14–17 Jan 20191,510 ?34.7
18/19		8.0
4		36.9
19/20		4.8
2		3.6
1/2		4.0
2		0.9
0		---7.1
0		2.2
Eurosondagem 26–28 Nov 2018748 ?34.2
18		10.6
5		33.9
18		6.5
3		3.4
1		4.0
2		1.6
0		---5.8
0		0.3
Intercampus 21–26 Nov 2018400 ? ?
19		 ?
2		?
23		 ?
2		 ?
1		 ?
0		 ?
0		 ?
0		 ?
0		 ?
0		 ?
0		 ?
Eurosondagem 19–24 Jul 20181,018 ?36.3
18/19		7.1
3/4		35.7
18/19		6.0
3		4.8
2		3.9
2		1.2
0		-- [e] 5.0
0		0.6
Eurosondagem 5–7 Feb 20181,018 ?38.5
20/21		5.9
3		33.2
17/18		6.8
3		3.1
1		4.9
2		1.4
0		--6.2
0		5.3
Eurosondagem 22–24 Oct 20171,017 ?36.3
19		6.0
3		33.6
17		6.5
3		4.5
2		4.1
2		2.1
1		--6.9
0		2.7
2017 local elections 1 Oct 2017—54.233.6
(19)		9.1
(5)		29.1
(16)		10.2
(5)		2.4
(1)		0.7
(0)		1.7
(1)		—0.6
(0)		12.6
(0)		4.5
Eurosondagem 7–9 Jun 20171,010 ?40.4
21/22		5.4
2/3		30.0
15/16		4.7
2		4.9
2		5.9
2		1.9
2		--6.8
0		10.4
Eurosondagem 14–16 Mar 20171,017 ?38.0
20/21		8.6
4		27.2
14/15		4.1
2		5.0
2/3		6.931.3
–		--8.9010.8
2015 legislative election 4 Oct 2015—48.937.8
(21)		6.0
(3)		20.9
(11)		6.9
(3)		3.6
(2)		10.7
(6)		1.4
(0)		1.8
(1)		1.4
(0)		13.5
(0)		16.9
2015 regional election 29 Mar 2015—49.644.4
24		13.7
7		11.4 [b]
5		10.3
5		5.5
2		3.8
2		 [b]
1		 [b]
0		 [b]
0		10.9
1		30.7

Voter turnout

The table below shows voter turnout throughout election day.

TurnoutTime
12:0016:0019:00
20152019±20152019±20152019±
Total17.21%20.97%Increase2.svg 3.76 pp 37.48%40.79%Increase2.svg 3.31 pp 49.58%55.50%Increase2.svg 5.92 pp
Sources [28] [29]

Results

On election night, the centre-right PSD and national-conservative CDS said they were willing to form a coalition government. [30]

Summary of the 22 September 2019 Legislative Assembly of Madeira elections results
Madeira Regional Parliament 2019.svg
Parties Votes%±pp swing MPs MPs %/
votes %
2015 2019±%±
Social Democratic 56,44939.42Decrease2.svg4.92421Decrease2.svg344.68Decrease2.svg6.41.13
Socialist 51,20735.76 [b] 519Increase2.svg1440.43Increase2.svg29.81.13
People's 8,2465.76Decrease2.svg8.073Decrease2.svg46.38Decrease2.svg8.51.11
Together for the People 7,8305.47Decrease2.svg4.853Decrease2.svg26.38Decrease2.svg4.31.17
Unitary Democratic Coalition 2,5771.80Decrease2.svg3.721Decrease2.svg12.13Decrease2.svg2.11.18
Left Bloc 2,4891.74Decrease2.svg2.120Decrease2.svg20.00Decrease2.svg4.20.0
People-Animals-Nature 2,0951.46 [b] 00Steady2.svg00.00Steady2.svg0.00.0
United Party of Retirees and Pensioners 1,7661.23——0—0.00—0.0
React, Include, Recycle 1,7491.22——0—0.00—0.0
Labour 1,4261.00 [b] 10Decrease2.svg10.00Decrease2.svg2.10.0
Alliance 7660.53——0—0.00—0.0
Liberal Initiative 7620.53——0—0.00—0.0
CHEGA 6190.43——0—0.00—0.0
Democratic Republican 6030.42——0—0.00—0.0
Portuguese Workers' Communist 6010.42Decrease2.svg1.300Steady2.svg00.00Steady2.svg0.00.0
Earth 5070.35 [b] 00Steady2.svg00.00Steady2.svg0.00.0
National Renovator 2740.19Decrease2.svg0.600Steady2.svg00.00Steady2.svg0.00.0
Total valid139,96697.74Increase2.svg2.14747Steady2.svg0100.00Steady2.svg0.0—
Blank ballots7000.49Decrease2.svg0.5
Invalid ballots2,5341.77Decrease2.svg1.6
Total143,200100.00
Registered voters/turnout258,00555.50Increase2.svg5.8
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições
Vote share
PSD
 
39.42%
PS
 
35.76%
CDS-PP
 
5.76%
JPP
 
5.47%
CDU
 
1.80%
BE
 
1.74%
PAN
 
1.46%
PURP
 
1.23%
RIR
 
1.22%
PTP
 
1.00%
Alliance
 
0.53%
IL
 
0.53%
Others
 
1.81%
Blank/Invalid
 
2.26%
Parliamentary seats
PSD
 
44.68%
PS
 
40.43%
CDS-PP
 
6.38%
JPP
 
6.38%
CDU
 
2.13%

Maps

Aftermath

Government approval

For the first time in democracy, the PSD failed to win an outright majority of seats and was forced to negotiate with other parties. Shortly after, the party reached a deal with CDS – People's Party (CDS–PP) to form a coalition government. [3] On 13 November 2019, the regional parliament approved Albuquerque's second led government, the first coalition government in Madeira:

2019 Motion of confidence
Miguel Albuquerque (PSD)
Ballot →13 November 2019
Required majority →Simple Yes check.svg
Yes
24 / 47
No
23 / 47
Abstentions
0 / 47
Absentees
0 / 47
Sources [31]

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 The leader of the PS-Madeira is Emanuel Câmara, but he has nominated the mayor of Funchal, Paulo Cafôfo, as the PS candidate for the Presidency of the Madeira Government.
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 PS, PTP, PAN and MPT contested the 2015 election in an electoral coalition called Change which received 11.4% of the vote.
  3. ↑ The Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) and the Ecologist Party "The Greens" (PEV) contested the 2015 election jointly as the Unitary Democratic Coalition, and won a combined 5.5% of the vote and elected 2 MPs to parliament.
  4. ↑ Roberto Vieira is a former Earth Party (MPT) member.
  5. ↑ Did not exist.

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References

  1. ↑ "Marcelo anuncia eleições legislativas em 6 de outubro", Sapo 24, 7 December 2018. Retrieved 7 December 2018.
  2. ↑ PSD ganha eleições na Madeira mas perde maioria absoluta. PS dispara, Jornal de Negócios , 22 September 2019. Retrieved 23 September 2019.
  3. 1 2 Berenguer, Márcio (8 October 2019). "Albuquerque e Barreto assinam acordo de coligação de governo". Público (in Portuguese). Archived from the original on 14 December 2023. Retrieved 14 December 2023.
  4. ↑ "Carlos Pereira será o novo líder do PS-Madeira". Sol. 2015-05-25. Retrieved 24 February 2024.
  5. ↑ "Carlos Pereira quer um novo caminho para o PS-Madeira". Público. 2015-05-30. Retrieved 24 February 2024.
  6. ↑ "Emanuel Câmara é novo líder do PS-Madeira, mas é Cafôfo quem mais ordena". Público. 2018-01-20. Retrieved 24 February 2024.
  7. ↑ "Emanuel Câmara foi hoje eleito novo presidente do PS/Madeira". Público. 2018-01-20. Retrieved 24 February 2024.
  8. ↑ "Oficial: Cafôfo é o candidato do PS contra Miguel Albuquerque". Visão. 2018-05-26. Retrieved 24 February 2024.
  9. ↑ Comissão Nacional de Eleições - Eleição para a Assembleia Legislativa da Região Autónoma da Madeira 2007
  10. ↑ Sorteio das Candidaturas - ALRAM 2019, Comissão Nacional de Eleições, 14 August 2019. Retrieved 25 August 2019.
  11. ↑ Legislativas 2019: Filipe Rebelo é candidato do PDR às regionais na Madeira e às legislativas, Sapo24, 23 August 2019. Retrieved 25 August 2019.
  12. ↑ Eleições na Madeira: Chega diz que vai ser governo na região “custe o que custar”, Sapo24, 19 August 2019. Retrieved 25 August 2019.
  13. ↑ Eleições na Madeira: PNR defende redução de deputados de 47 para 30, Sapo24, 19 August 2019. Retrieved 25 August 2019.
  14. ↑ Eleições na Madeira: PAN ressurge na região e quer eleger dois deputados, Sapo24, 20 August 2019. Retrieved 25 August 2019.
  15. ↑ Eleições na Madeira: Aliança considera “estruturante” a eleição de um grupo parlamentar, Sapo24, 20 August 2019. Retrieved 25 August 2019.
  16. ↑ Eleições na Madeira: MPT quer ressurgir e eleger representação parlamentar, Sapo24, 20 August 2019. Retrieved 25 August 2019.
  17. ↑ Eleições na Madeira: PCTP/MRPP assume-se como o “partido dos pobres” e contra os “usurpadores” da autonomia, Sapo24, 21 August 2019. Retrieved 25 August 2019.
  18. ↑ Iniciativa Liberal quer eliminar cargo de Representante da República, Sapo24, 23 August 2019. Retrieved 25 August 2019.
  19. ↑ Eleições na Madeira: PURP promete “envolver as pessoas” e “lutar ferozmente” contra os lóbis, Sapo24, 22 August 2019. Retrieved 25 August 2019.
  20. ↑ Eleições na Madeira: RIR estreia-se com receio de ser prejudicado por candidato ter sido do MPT, Sapo24 , 22 August 2019. Retrieved 25 August 2019.
  21. ↑ "ELEIÇÕES REGIONAIS DA MADEIRA DE 2019 – PSD". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 24 October 2020.
  22. ↑ "ELEIÇÕES REGIONAIS DA MADEIRA DE 2019 – CDS". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 24 October 2020.
  23. ↑ "ELEIÇÕES REGIONAIS DA MADEIRA DE 2019 – PS". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 24 October 2020.
  24. ↑ "ELEIÇÕES REGIONAIS DA MADEIRA DE 2019 – JPP". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 24 October 2020.
  25. ↑ "ELEIÇÕES REGIONAIS DA MADEIRA DE 2019 – BE". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 24 October 2020.
  26. ↑ "ELEIÇÕES REGIONAIS DA MADEIRA DE 2019 – CDU". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 24 October 2020.
  27. ↑ "Eleições da Madeira - Debates". RTP Madeira (in Portuguese). 19 September 2019. Retrieved 24 October 2020.
  28. ↑ "Regionais 2019 - Afluência". eleicoes.mai.gov.pt/regionais2019/index.html (in Portuguese). Ministry of Internal Administration . Retrieved 12 June 2023.
  29. ↑ "Regionais 2015 - Afluência". eleicoes.mai.gov.pt/regionais2015/index.html (in Portuguese). Ministry of Internal Administration . Retrieved 12 June 2023.
  30. ↑ Miguel Albuquerque admite "coligação de governo" com CDS-PP , Jornal de Negócios , 22 September 2019. Retrieved 23 September 2019.
  31. ↑ "Madeira: Programa do Governo regional aprovado por PSD e CDS". Público (in Portuguese). Lisbon. 13 November 2019. Retrieved 11 February 2024.
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