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538 members of the Electoral College 270 electoral votes needed to win | |||||||
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Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in the United States on November 7, 2028, [1] to elect a president and vice president for a term of four years. The winners of the election are expected to be inaugurated on January 20, 2029.
After winning the 2016 and 2024 presidential elections, President Donald Trump is ineligible for a third term, due to the provisions of the Twenty-second Amendment. Trump's non-consecutive second term expires at noon on January 20, 2029, when the winners of the election will be inaugurated as the president and vice president of the United States.
The Republican Party, represented by President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance, returned to power in the United States with a government trifecta in January 2025 following the 2024 election. Trump, who was elected president in 2016 but lost a re-election bid in 2020 to Joe Biden, defeated Vice President Kamala Harris, who began her campaign following President Joe Biden's exit from the 2024 election. Trump's victory was credited to a surge in inflation, a migrant crisis at the U.S.–Mexico border, [2] and a global anti-incumbent backlash. [3] [4] Republicans also secured control of the Senate winning four seats and earning a three seat majority, while also retaining a House majority, despite losing two seats and dropping from a five seat to a three seat majority. [5]
The president and vice president of the United States are elected through the Electoral College, consisting of senators and representatives with an additional three representatives for Washington, D.C.. A majority of 270 votes is needed to win the election. Forty-eight states use a winner-take-all system in which states award all of their electors to the winner of the popular vote. In Maine and Nebraska, two votes are allocated to the winner of the popular vote, while each of the individual congressional districts have one vote. Electoral votes are certified by state electors in December and by Congress on January 6. [6]
Presidential candidates are selected in a presidential primary, conducted through primary elections run by state governments or caucuses run by state parties which bind convention delegates to candidates. [7] A brokered convention occurs when a candidate does not receive a majority of votes on the first round of voting, [8] or when a candidate withdraws. [9]
Trump is ineligible to seek a third term, [10] as the Twenty-second Amendment forbids any person from being elected president more than twice. [11] [12]
For 2028, the expected swing states likely include the Rust Belt states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, as well as the Sun Belt states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina,[ citation needed ] all of which were narrowly won by Trump in 2024. [13] [14] [15] The Minnesota Star Tribune also reported that the close margin in Minnesota would make it specifically a very likely swing state, [16] and WMUR said the same about New Hampshire, which was Trump's closest loss and was "much more of a swing state". [17]
States formerly considered swing states, such as Florida, Iowa, and Ohio, voted for Trump in all three of his previous election bids, with increasing margins in each election (and have become reliably red in other state and federal elections) which suggests that they are no longer swing states. [18] [19] [20] Former swing states which have become blue states since 2008 include Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Virginia even in Republican national victories. [21] Due to its recent record of voting Democratic even during Republican national wins, Nebraska's 2nd congressional district is also sometimes considered blue. [22]
Ted Cruz has served as a U.S. senator from Texas since 2013. The runner-up to Donald Trump in the 2016 Republican Party presidential primaries, Cruz has said that he expects to seek the presidency again at some point in the future. In October 2024, the Houston Chronicle described Cruz as being on a 'short list of Republicans rumored for a presidential run in 2028', but added that his hopes hinged on proving that he could attract voters outside of 'hard-line conservatives'. [23] The Texas Tribune posited following Cruz's reelection victory in November 2024 that he had kept his national ambitions alive, reporting that Brendan Steinhauser, a Texas GOP operative independent of Cruz's Senate campaign, argued that Cruz's comfortable win 'keeps him in the conversation nationally', adding that Cruz could springboard his coalition in Texas into a formidable presidential campaign. [24]
Nikki Haley was the runner-up in the Republican presidential nomination in 2024. She previously served as the United States Ambassador to the United Nations from 2017 to 2018, during the first Trump administration, and as Governor of South Carolina from 2011 to 2017. She has been considered a potential candidate by NBC News, [25] Politico , [26] and KSAZ-TV. [27]
Vivek Ramaswamy is a billionaire businessman and founder of Roivant Sciences. He previously ran for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024. He has been mentioned as a possible contender by Politico [26] and NBC News. [25] However, he is expected to launch a bid for the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election in February 2025. [28]
Sarah Huckabee Sanders has served as the governor of Arkansas since 2023 and previously served as the 31st White House Press Secretary in the first Trump administration. She is the daughter of United States Ambassador to Israel-nominee and former Governor of Arkansas Mike Huckabee who ran in the 2008 and 2016 Republican Party presidential primaries. She has been noted as a possible contender by NBC News, [25] KSAZ-TV, [27] and Politico . [26]
Tim Scott has served as a U.S. senator from South Carolina since 2013 and ran for the nomination in 2024. He previously served as U.S. representative from South Carolina's 1st congressional district from 2011 to 2013. Scott has been considered as a possible candidate for president in 2028 by Axios , [29] NBC News, [25] and Politico . [26]
JD Vance has served as the vice president of the United States since 2025. He previously served as a U.S. senator from Ohio from 2023 to 2025. Vance is the front runner in the primary election, according to The Columbus Dispatch . [30] The Hill stated that Vance's debate performance against Minnesota governor Tim Walz in October 2024 improved his status as a presidential contender. [31] In a February 2025 interview, President Trump stated that he did not see Vance as his successor, stating "he's very capable" and "it's too early, we're just starting." [32]
Glenn Youngkin has served as the governor of Virginia since 2022, and is barred by the state's constitution from seeking a second consecutive term. He has been noted as a possible candidate by Politico , [26] Axios , [29] and NBC News. [25]
ESPN sports television personality Stephen A. Smith stated in November 2024, following the election, that he would consider running if he had a reasonable chance of victory. [33] In February 2025, he stated on his podcast, The Stephen A. Smith Show, that he would entertain the idea of launching a presidential campaign. [34] [35] His comments came after he was included in a Democratic primary nationwide poll, where he received 2%. [36]
Andy Beshear has served as the governor of Kentucky since 2019. He was previously on the shortlist to be the vice presidential nominee for the 2024 election, [37] and was seen as a potential replacement for President Joe Biden before he withdrew from the race. In October 2024, Beshear headlined an event for the New Hampshire Democrats, a key early primary state, where he promoted both himself and Vice President Kamala Harris to attendees, signaling his future aspirations. [38] Beshear was the most popular Democratic governor in the United States per the Morning Consult, fueling speculation that he may run for president. [39] [40] In response to ongoing speculation about his political ambitions, Beshear has stated in an interview with WDKY-TV that he will "see what the future holds", without explicitly ruling out a potential presidential run. [41]
Cory Booker has served as a U.S. senator from New Jersey since 2013 and ran for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020. He previously served as mayor of Newark, New Jersey from 2006 to 2013. Booker has been mentioned as a possible candidate for president in 2028 by The Hill , [42] [43] Politico , [44] [45] and NBC News. [46]
Pete Buttigieg served as the United States Secretary of Transportation from 2021 to 2025. Prior to becoming Secretary of Transportation, he served as mayor of South Bend, Indiana, from January 1, 2012, to January 1, 2020, and launched a 2020 presidential campaign. Buttigieg was also a contender to be Vice President Kamala Harris' running mate after she secured the Democratic nomination for president. U.S. News reports that Buttigieg is seen as the party's top 'communicator', appearing on conservative television defending President Biden's policies. This report also hinted that Buttigieg might also run for governor of Michigan in 2026 to replace term-limited governor Gretchen Whitmer. [47] After Buttigieg's radio talk show appearances in New Hampshire and Cleveland to address infrastructure plans for the future, there has been speculation that Buttigieg might be making early campaign stops for the governor race in Michigan as well as the presidential election. [26] Buttigieg confirmed in February 2025 that he was considering a Senate run after dismissing a run for governor. [48]
Roy Cooper served as the governor of North Carolina from 2017 to 2025. He was considered a potential contender to be the vice presidential nominee for the 2024 election but removed himself from consideration. [49] Politico has also referred to Cooper as a potential contender for the 2028 Democratic Party's presidential nomination. [50] In an interview with The New York Times in December 2024, Cooper stated that "everything is on the table" and that he was interested in running for public office again. [51]
Ruben Gallego has served as a U.S. senator from Arizona since 2025. He also previously served as U.S. representative from Arizona's 3rd congressional district from 2015 until 2025. Gallego was listed as a potential candidate by both Politico , [26] NBC News, [46] and The Advocate [52] as Gallego was the only battleground state Democratic Senate candidate that outpaced Harris in vote share by more than half of a percentage point and performed particularly well with Latino men, a key demographic that Democrats struggled with in 2024. [26] The New York Times called him a good candidate that could win over working-class voters. [53]
Kamala Harris served as the vice president of the United States from 2021 to 2025. She became the nominee for president in the 2024 presidential election after Biden withdrew his bid, losing to Donald Trump. [54] Harris, who has the largest donor network in the Democratic Party, may run for the presidency again in 2028 according to The New York Times , [54] as well as Politico [45] and The Guardian , [55] although her loss in the previous election could potentially give her a disadvantage. [54] According to USA Today , Harris intended to run in 2028 before Biden's withdrawal. [56] In November 2024, Politico reported that Harris is considering running for president in 2028 or for governor of California in 2026. [57]
Ro Khanna has served as the representative of California's 17th congressional district since 2017. Khanna has shown interest [58] in running to be the "president on his vision" of Progressive Capitalism "one day" [59] and is known as the representative of Silicon Valley in Congress. [60] He served as the co-chair of Bernie Sanders 2020 presidential campaign. [58] He has been described as a progressive but ideologically to the right of democratic socialists like Bernie Sanders and AOC. Khanna has been proposed as a potential 2028 candidate by multiple news outlets, including The New Yorker, [61] The Hill, [42] Politico, [38] [26] and NBC News. [46]
Amy Klobuchar has served as a U.S. senator from Minnesota since 2007. A candidate in the 2020 Democratic primaries, NBC News speculated in November 2024 that she may consider another run in 2028. [46] Politico also listed Klobuchar as a potential candidate in December 2024. [44]
Chris Murphy has served as a U.S. senator from Connecticut since 2013. NBC News speculated in November 2024 that he may consider a run for president in 2028. [46] The Guardian and The Hill also listed Murphy as a potential candidate. [62] [42]
Gavin Newsom has served as the governor of California since 2019. Newsom has been viewed as a contender for the 2028 presidential election by The Orange County Register , [63] The New York Times, [64] Politico, [45] and The Washington Post after he garnered national attention by December 2023, [65] and he was seen as a potential replacement for Biden after his withdrawal from the 2024 election by The New York Times. [66] According to The New York Times, Newsom was considering a bid for the presidency by September 2023. [67]
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has served as the representative of New York's 14th congressional district since 2019. Ocasio-Cortez has been proposed as a potential candidate by many sources. [68] Politico noted that Ocasio-Cortez "has a prominent following from younger, diverse people". [69] According to Politico , there is also speculation amongst media outlets that have begun for Ocasio-Cortez being a potential candidate for president in 2028. [68] Pundits for Spectrum News NY1 proposed Ocasio-Cortez would be a "formidable contender" if she decided to make a run for the White House. [70] Monica Crowley said Ocasio-Cortez enjoyed "real grassroots support" due to her prominence on social media, [71] while Slate 's Ben Mathis-Lilley wrote in November 2024 that Ocasio-Cortez "might already have an opening to be the front-runner for the 2028 nomination". [72]
Jon Ossoff has served as a U.S senator from Georgia since 2021. In November 2024, NBC News mentioned him as well as junior senator Raphael Warnock as potential contenders for 2028, noting that the two could underscore their ability to succeed electorally in a state thought to be tough for Democrats. Of Ossoff concerning the 2028 election, longtime Democratic strategist Jared Leopold said, "Another guy no one talks about, by the way, is Ossoff, because he kind of keeps quiet, but he's great." [46] In January 2025, The Advocate referred to Ossoff as a possible candidate, saying that his ability to mobilize young and diverse voters in addition to his media savviness as well as his focus on key issues, "positions him as a rising leader with nationwide appeal". [52]
Dean Phillips served as the representative of Minnesota's 3rd congressional district from 2019 to 2025. Phillips ran a campaign against Biden in the 2024 Democratic presidential primaries. [73] Phillips received the second-highest number of delegates to the 2024 Democratic National Convention of any candidate in the primaries. [74] In an interview with CBS Minnesota, Phillips was asked about his future political aspirations. He ruled out a bid for the U.S. Senate or the governor's office in 2026 but said, "never say never" regarding another presidential campaign in 2028. [75] The HuffPost reported that after the election, Phillips said of his White House bid, “I would do it a thousand times again.” [76] Phillips has also been suggested as a potential third party or independent candidate, and has personally advocated for the establishment of a center-left third party. [77]
JB Pritzker has served as the governor of Illinois since 2019. Pritzker is a potential Democratic contender, according to the Chicago Sun-Times , [78] Bloomberg [79] and Politico . [80] In 2023, Pritzker declined to speak directly with representative Dean Phillips regarding his effort to try to convince him to enter the Democratic Party presidential primary race to oppose Biden. [81] [82]
Josh Shapiro has served as the governor of Pennsylvania since 2023. Shapiro has been seen as a critical figure in Pennsylvania by Democratic strategists and officials, according to Politico, [45] and as a politician who could garner votes from white working-class voters, according to CNN. [83] He was said to be a front-runner in the primary by The Philadelphia Inquirer . [84] According to The New York Times, Shapiro was seen as a potential replacement for Biden. [66]
Raphael Warnock has served as U.S senator from Georgia since 2021. In November 2024, he was mentioned along with fellow Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff by NBC News as potential contenders for 2028, noting that the two could underscore their ability to succeed electorally in a state thought to be tough for Democrats. [46] In December 2024 he was noted for being a potential candidate with "national promise" by Politico. [26] Later that month The Guardian praised him for his oratory skills and noted his progressive policy stances on healthcare and voting rights. [62]
Gretchen Whitmer has served as the governor of Michigan since 2019. Whitmer was listed as a potential 2028 Democratic candidate for president by the Associated Press in January 2025. [85] Also, Politico mentioned Whitmer as a potential candidate for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination in December 2024. [44] Whitmer was a top contender to be Biden’s running mate in 2020, and since then, her political star has risen. [86] In 2023, Whitmer declined to speak directly with representative Dean Phillips regarding his effort to try to convince her to enter the Democratic Party presidential primary race to oppose Biden. [81] [82]
The following individuals stated that they would not run for president:
Dean Phillips served as the representative of Minnesota's 3rd congressional district from 2019 to 2025. Phillips ran a campaign against Biden in the 2024 Democratic presidential primaries [73] and received the second-highest number of delegates to the 2024 Democratic National Convention of any candidate in the primaries. [74] In an interview with CBS Minnesota, Phillips was asked about his future political aspirations. He ruled out a bid for the U.S. Senate or the governor's office in 2026 but said, "never say never" regarding another presidential campaign in 2028. [75] The HuffPost reported that after the election, Phillips said of his White House bid, “I would do it a thousand times again.” [76] Phillips has also been suggested as a potential third party or independent candidate, and has personally advocated for the establishment of a center-left third party. [77]
The following individuals stated that they would not run for president:
Aggregator | Updated | JD Vance | Donald Trump Jr. | Ron DeSantis | Vivek Ramaswamy | Nikki Haley | Ted Cruz | Chris Christie | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | Other | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Race to the WH | February 13, 2025 | 39.4% | 26.4% | 12.8% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 11.9% | Vance +13.0% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [c] | Ted Cruz | Ron DeSantis | Nikki Haley | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. [d] | Vivek Ramaswamy | Marco Rubio | Donald Trump [e] | Donald Trump Jr. | JD Vance | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Echelon Insights | February 10–13, 2025 | 466 LV | 4% | 10% | 8% | — | 5% | 4% | — | — | 39% | 10% [f] | 20% |
McLaughlin & Associates | January 22–27, 2025 | 453 (LV) | — | 8% | 2% | — | 3% | 3% | — | 21% | 27% | 11% [g] | 24% |
Second inauguration of Donald Trump | |||||||||||||
McLaughlin & Associates | December 11–16, 2024 | 463 (LV) | — | 9% | 4% | – | 4% | 2% | — | 21% | 25% | 9% [h] | 24% |
Morning Consult | December 6–8, 2024 | 994 (RV) | — | 9% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 1% | — | 30% | 30% | 19% [i] | — |
Emerson College | November 20–22, 2024 | 420 (RV) | 1% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 23% | — | 30% | 9% [j] [k] | 28% |
Echelon Insights | November 14–18, 2024 | 483 (LV) | 5% | 8% | 9% | — | 9% | 5% | — | — | 37% | 9% [l] | 18% |
2024 United States presidential election held. | |||||||||||||
Echelon Insights | July 19–21, 2024 | 456 (LV) | 4% | 14% | 9% | — | 10% | 2% | — | 25% | 16% [m] | 21% | |
Echelon Insights | January 16–18, 2024 | 832 (RV) | — | 27% | 19% | — | 18% | — | — | 1% | 18% [n] | 17% | |
Aggregator | Updated | Kamala Harris | Pete Buttigieg | Gavin Newsom | Tim Walz | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | Josh Shapiro | Elizabeth Warren | Gretchen Whitmer | Other | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Race to the WH | February 13, 2025 | 33.1% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 15.8% | Harris +24.6% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [c] | Cory Booker | Pete Buttigieg | Kamala Harris | Amy Klobuchar | Gavin Newsom | Josh Shapiro | Gretchen Whitmer | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Capitol Weekly | February 6, 2025 | 681 V | 5% | 15% | 15% | 6% | 27% | 6% | 6% | 20% [o] | — |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [c] | Pete Buttigieg | Kamala Harris | Gavin Newsom | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | Josh Shapiro | Tim Walz | Other | Undecided | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Echelon Insights | February 10–13, 2025 | 447 (LV) | 10% | 36% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 9% | 21% [p] | 10% | |
McLaughlin & Associates | January 22–27, 2025 | 414 (LV) | 9% | 33% | 7% | 6% | 3% | 3% | 23% [q] | 22% | |
Second inauguration of Donald Trump | |||||||||||
McLaughlin & Associates | December 11–16, 2024 | 428 (LV) | 12% | 35% | 7% | 3% | 5% | 5% | 18% [r] | 19% | |
Emerson College | November 20–22, 2024 | 400 (RV) | 4% | 37% | 7% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 16% [s] | 35% | |
Echelon Insights | November 14–18, 2024 | 457 (LV) | 6% | 41% | 8% | 4% | 7% | 6% | 12% [t] | 16% | |
Morning Consult | November 15–17, 2024 | 1,012 (V) | 9% | 43% | 8% | 4% | 5% | 7% | 23% [u] | — | |
2024 United States presidential election held. | |||||||||||
Morning Consult/Politico | May 28–29, 2024 | 3,997 (RV) | 10% | 21% | 10% | — | 3% | — | 12% [v] | 41% | |
Echelon Insights | January 16–18, 2024 | 499 (RV) | 13% | 33% | 11% | — | 2% | — | 12% [w] | 29% | |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [c] | JD Vance (R) | Kamala Harris (D) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Second inauguration of Donald Trump | |||||
On Point/SoCal Strategies | December 23, 2024 | 656 (A) | 41% | 43% | 16% |
American Pulse Research & Polling | December 17–20, 2024 | 661 (LV) | 46% | 47% | 7% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [c] | JD Vance (R) | Gavin Newsom (D) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Second inauguration of Donald Trump | |||||
On Point/SoCal Strategies | December 23, 2024 | 656 (A) | 37% | 34% | 29% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [c] | JD Vance (R) | Josh Shapiro (D) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Second inauguration of Donald Trump | |||||
On Point/SoCal Strategies | December 23, 2024 | 656 (A) | 37% | 34% | 29% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [c] | JD Vance (R) | Gretchen Whitmer (D) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Second inauguration of Donald Trump | |||||
On Point/SoCal Strategies | December 23, 2024 | 656 (A) | 40% | 33% | 26% |
'We'll see what the future holds in the future, but, right now, my only focus is on this job, is about making sure that I continue to stand up for Kentuckians and all Americans,' Beshear said.
When asked whether he was taking the possibility of running for president off the table, Polis responded that it "wasn't even on the table."