Anti-incumbency

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Anti-incumbency is sentiment in favor of voting out incumbent politicians, for the specific reason of being incumbent politicians. It is sometimes referred to as a "throw the bums out" sentiment. Periods of anti-incumbent sentiment are typically characterized by wave elections. [1] This sentiment can also lead to support for term limits.

Contents

In a two-party system, anti-incumbent voters have only one party to vote for, when voting against the incumbent; in a multi-party system, public mood, i.e., the tendency of opinions held by voters over a set of related policy issues, can determine which parties receive the anti-incumbent vote. [2]

Causes

When voters perceive times as bad, this can cause anti-incumbent sentiment. However, this is subject to biases. Perceptions of whether, e.g., economic conditions have worsened during a politician's term are influenced by partisan bias, for instance. [3] In the U.S., reliance on partisan media, as opposed to mainstream media, is associated with anti-incumbent attitudes toward Congress. [4] New democracies' elections, such as those in Central and Eastern Europe, and in Latin America and Asia, often are characterized by anti-incumbency. [5]

History

Bulgaria

In Bulgaria, virtually every government has been ousted from power after one legislative period. [5]

Bhutan

The 2018 Bhutanese National Assembly election had an anti-incumbent result. [6]

India

India has the highest rate of anti-incumbency in the world, [7] with incumbents from the ruling party having only a fifty-fifty shot at returning to parliament. [8] For example, since 1985, the electorate in Assam, India has oscillated between voting the Asom Gana Parishad and the Indian National Congress to power. [9] In Karnataka, the last time the ruling government was re-elected was in the 1985 Indian elections. [10] Kerala has always voted in whichever is the opposition pre-poll alliance since 1982 assembly elections. [11] Voter turnout does not appear correlated with incumbents' electoral performance. [12]

In 2018, India's period of anti-incumbency was accompanied by acute rural distress, multiple farmer agitations and serious joblessness. [13]

Mexico

In the 2010 Mexican gubernatorial elections, incumbents from the Institutional Revolutionary Party, National Action Party, and Party of the Democratic Revolution were rejected. [14]

United States

Eras of anti-incumbent sentiment included the Gilded Age, in which the majority party in the U.S. House of Representatives shifted six times in the 15 Congressional elections between 1870 and 1900, with three of those shifts involving losses of more than 70 seats by the majority party. David M. Kennedy notes, "Generations of American scholars have struggled to find a coherent narrative or to identify heroic leaders in that era's messy and inconclusive political scene." [1]

The 1992 United States elections were also characterized by anti-incumbent sentiment, as a stubborn recession and persistently high unemployment fuelled voter dissatisfaction. [15] A 2013 poll found that 60% of Americans would vote to "defeat and replace every single member of Congress, including [their] own representative" if that option were available. [16]

The 2024 United States presidential election also has fueled considerable anti-incumbent sentiment, particularly among Generation Z, primarily due to immigration policy, post-COVID inflation, the Israel–Palestine conflict, and the age of the incumbent president at the time. [ citation needed ]

The concept of anti-incumbency, at least with regard to U.S. elections, is controversial, since more often voters will punish only one party. [17] Three organizations that supported voting out incumbents were Throw the Hypocritical Rascals Out, Vote Out Incumbents Democracy and Tenure Corrupts.

Criticism

A perceived disadvantage of anti-incumbency, with regard to judicial elections, is that good lawyers will not want to accept what they regard as a revolving-door judgeship. [18] Another criticism of anti-incumbency is that it causes political parties to focus on single-term policies rather than long-term development. [19]

Related Research Articles

The incumbent is the current holder of an office or position. In an election, the incumbent is the person holding or acting in the position that is up for election, regardless of whether they are seeking re-election.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Protest vote</span> Vote cast in an election as a form of political protest

A protest vote is a vote cast in an election to demonstrate dissatisfaction with the choice of candidates or the current political system. Protest voting takes a variety of forms and reflects numerous voter motivations, including political apathy. Where voting is compulsory, casting a blank vote is available for those who do not wish to choose a candidate, or to protest. Unlike abstention elsewhere, blank votes are counted.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Voter turnout</span> Percentage of a countrys eligible voters who actually vote within elections

In political science, voter turnout is the participation rate of a given election. This is typically either the percentage of registered voters, eligible voters, or all voting-age people. According to Stanford University political scientists Adam Bonica and Michael McFaul, there is a consensus among political scientists that "democracies perform better when more people vote."

<span class="mw-page-title-main">United States midterm election</span> General elections in the United States that are held two years after the quadrennial elections

Midterm elections in the United States are the general elections that are held near the midpoint of a president's four-year term of office, on Election Day on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November. Federal offices that are up for election during the midterms include all 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives, and 33 or 34 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate.

Congressional stagnation is an American political theory that attempts to explain the high rate of incumbency re-election to the United States House of Representatives. In recent years this rate has been well over 90 per cent, with rarely more than 5–10 incumbents losing their House seats every election cycle. The theory has existed since the 1970s, when political commentators were beginning to notice the trend, with political science author and professor David Mayhew first writing about the "vanishing marginals" theory in 1974.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2009 Indian general election</span>

General elections were held in India in five phases between 16 April 2009 and 13 May 2009 to elect the members of the fifteenth Lok Sabha. With an electorate of 716 million, it was the largest democratic election in the world until being surpassed by the 2014 general election.

In political science, political apathy is a lack of interest or apathy towards politics. This includes voter apathy, information apathy and lack of interest in elections, political events, public meetings, and voting.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Voter turnout in United States presidential elections</span> Aspect of election history

Voter turnout in US elections is measured as a percentage, calculated by dividing the total number of votes cast by the voting age population (VAP), or more recently, the voting eligible population (VEP). Voter turnout has varied over time, between states, and between demographic groups. In the United States, turnout is higher for presidential elections than for midterm elections. US turnout is generally lower than that in other advanced democracies.

The elections in 2012 were scheduled for seven Vidhan Sabhas and several local elections were also conducted. The 14th presidential election to elect the 13th president of the republic was also held in 2012. The tenure of the legislative assemblies of Goa, Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh, Manipur, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand were to expire during the year. The Election Commission of India issued the dates for the elections in Manipur, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh and Goa to take place in the first quarter of the year. Whereas the elections were held in Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat in the last quarter of the year.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2014 United States elections</span>

The 2014 United States elections were held on Tuesday, November 4, 2014, in the middle of Democratic President Barack Obama's second term. A typical six-year itch midterm election suffered by most second-term presidents, this election saw the Republican Party retaining control of the House of Representatives and winning control of the Senate, while furthering their gains in the governorships and state legislatures. Because of these Republican gains, the election was commonly cited as a "red wave" election.

Legislative Assembly elections in India were conducted for nine legislative assemblies in 2013. Voting in Chhattisgarh was held in two phases on 11 November and 19 November 2013. The Election Commission of India (ECI) successfully conducted elections in Tripura, Meghalaya and Nagaland in February and in Karnataka on 5 May. The elections in Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan were conducted in December while the counting that took place on 8 December showed a clear majority for BJP in the states of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, while Congress retained the state of Mizoram and Delhi got a hung assembly, with no single party getting a clear majority.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2016 United States elections</span>

The 2016 United States elections were held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016. Republican nominee Donald Trump defeated Democratic former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the presidential election, while Republicans retained control of Congress. This marked the first and most recent time Republicans won or held unified control of the presidency and Congress since 2004.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 United States elections</span>

The 2020 United States elections were held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020. The Democratic Party's nominee, former vice president Joe Biden, defeated incumbent Republican president Donald Trump in the presidential election. Despite losing seats in the House of Representatives, Democrats retained control of the House and gained control of the Senate. As a result, the Democrats obtained a government trifecta, the first time since the elections in 2008 that the party gained unified control of Congress and the presidency. With Trump losing his bid for re-election, he became the first defeated incumbent president to have overseen his party lose the presidency and control of both the House and the Senate since Herbert Hoover in 1932. This was the first time since 1980 that either chamber of Congress flipped partisan control in a presidential year, and the first time Democrats did so since 1948.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2017 Uttarakhand Legislative Assembly election</span> 2017 assembly elections in Uttarakhand

The 2017 Uttarakhand Legislative Assembly election was the 4th Vidhan Sabha election of the state of Uttarakhand in India. Elections were held on 15 February 2017 in a single phase for the 69 seats of the Uttarakhand Legislative Assembly. Voting in the Karnaprayag constituency was postponed until 9 March 2017 due to the death of BSP candidate Kuldeep Kanwasi in a road accident. In the previous election in 2012, none of the parties won a majority but the Indian National Congress formed the government with the help of PDF with the leadership of Vijay Bahuguna.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1924 United States presidential election in Florida</span> Election in Florida

The 1924 United States presidential election in Florida was held on November 4, 1924. Voters chose six representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1940 United States presidential election in Tennessee</span> Election in Tennessee

The 1940 United States presidential election in Tennessee took place on November 5, 1940, as part of the 1940 United States presidential election. Tennessee voters chose 11 representatives, or electors, to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 Bihar Legislative Assembly election</span> Election in India

The Bihar Legislative Assembly election was held in three phases through October–November to elect members to the Seventeenth Bihar Legislative Assembly. The term of the previous Sixteenth Legislative Assembly of Bihar ended on 29 November 2020.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 Wisconsin elections</span>

The 2020 Wisconsin Fall general election was held in the U.S. state of Wisconsin on November 3, 2020. All of Wisconsin's eight seats in the United States House of Representatives were up for election, as well as sixteen seats in the Wisconsin State Senate and all 99 seats in the Wisconsin State Assembly. Voters also chose ten electors to represent them in the Electoral College, which then participated in selecting the president of the United States. The 2020 Fall partisan primary was held on August 11, 2020.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1996 Cook County, Illinois, elections</span>

The Cook County, Illinois, general election was held on November 5, 1996.

References

  1. 1 2 Kennedy, David M. (6 November 2010). "Throwing the Bums Out for 140 Years". The New York Times.
  2. ↑ Baker, Andy (2015). "Public Mood and Presidential Election Outcomes in Mexico" (PDF). University of Colorado Boulder. Archived from the original (PDF) on Jun 10, 2023.
  3. ↑ Bartels, Larry M. "The Irrational Electorate" (PDF). The Wilson Quarterly. Archived from the original (PDF) on Jan 17, 2023.
  4. ↑ Johnson, Thomas J.; Lee, Angela M. (December 2015). "Kick the bums out?: A structural equation model exploring the degree to which mainstream and partisan sources influence polarization and anti-incumbent attitudes". Electoral Studies. 40: 210–220. doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2015.08.008.
  5. 1 2 Bochsler, Daniel; Hänni, Miriam (February 2019). "The three stages of the anti-incumbency vote: Retrospective economic voting in young and established democracies". European Journal of Political Research. 58 (1): 30–55. doi:10.1111/1475-6765.12269.
  6. ↑ "Anti-incumbency grips Bhutan". The Economist. 2018-10-11.
  7. ↑ "Anti-incumbency in our DNA".
  8. ↑ "Incumbency in India: More Curse Than Blessing?".
  9. ↑ Counting on Anti-Incumbency Economic and Political Weekly, 24 March 2001, Vol.36(12), pp.981-981
  10. ↑ Goled, Shraddha (2019-03-13). "TLI Explains: What is Anti-Incumbency & How Does It Affect the Fate of Parties".
  11. ↑ "The quiet decline of anti-incumbency". Gateway House. 2015-02-24. Retrieved 2020-08-30.
  12. ↑ Vaishnav, Milan; Guy, Johnathan (4 April 2018). "Does Higher Turnout Hurt Incumbents? An Analysis of State Elections in India". Studies in Indian Politics. 6 (1): 71–87. doi: 10.1177/2321023018762817 .
  13. ↑ "Why the government should worry about the warning signs of anti-incumbency".
  14. ↑ An Anti-Incumbency Wave -- in Mexico. Krauze, Enrique The New York Times, July 7, 2010, p.A21(L)
  15. ↑ Myers, Dee Dee (27 July 2016). "New Technology and the 1992 Clinton Presidential Campaign". American Behavioral Scientist. 37 (2): 181–184. doi:10.1177/0002764293037002003. S2CID   145133140.
  16. ↑ Savo, Alyssa. "The Fight for Term Limits: Reinvestigating DeMint's Defense of His Failed Amendment" (PDF). American University. Archived from the original (PDF) on Jan 17, 2023. For instance, a 2013 NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll found 60% of Americans said that they would vote to "defeat and replace every single member of Congress, including [their] own representative" if they could (Montanero).
  17. ↑ "The anti-incumbent election is a myth". Politico .
  18. ↑ "Anti-incumbency's threat to judicial selection". Judicature. 76 (2): 56. 1992.
  19. ↑ "The quiet decline of anti-incumbency". 2015-02-24.
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