2024 Botswana general election

2024 Botswana general election

←  2019 By October 2024
←  outgoing members
61 of the 69 seats in the National Assembly [lower-alpha 1] 31 seats needed for a majority
Registered	810,974 [lower-alpha 2] 12.4%
Leader Mokgweetsi Masisi Duma Boko Party BDP UDC Leader's seat None [lower-alpha 3] Did not stand Last election 52.65%, 38 seats 35.88%, 15 seats Current seats 38 7 [lower-alpha 4] Seats needed 24   Leader Dumelang Saleshando Mephato Reatile Party BCP BPF Leader's seat Maun West Jwaneng-Mabutsane Last election 11 seats [lower-alpha 5] 4.41%, 3 seats Current seats 7 4 Seats needed 24 27
Incumbent President Mokgweetsi Masisi BDP

The 2024 Botswana general election will be held to determine the composition of the 13th Parliament of Botswana as well as local councils across the country. Up for election are 61 seats of the National Assembly as well as 490 local council seats, all elected through the first-past-the-post voting system.

Since the first election in 1965, the Botswana Democratic Party has held a majority of seats, without interruption, in the National Assembly and has thus governed alone for 57 years, making Botswana a dominant-party system.

Background

Previous election

Main article: 2019 Botswana general election

The election held on October 23, 2019, saw the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) maintain its parliamentary majority for the 12th consecutive time, securing 53% of the votes and 38 out of 57 seats, one more than in the 2014 election. The Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) garnered 36% of the votes and 15 seats, two less than its 2014 result. The election marked a significant political realignment in Botswana's political landscape. This was because the Central District (which had consistently supported the BDP, averaging around 75% of the vote since the first elections in 1965) saw large swings to the opposition due to former President Ian Khama's backing of the newly-formed Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF) and of UDC candidates, where the BPF did not stand candidates of its own. ^[3] The UDC and BPF won 11 out of 17 seats in the district, marking the first time ever that a party other than the BDP won a seat in the district. Nonetheless, the BDP made substantial gains in other regions, securing all seats in both Gaborone and districts in the southern parts of the country, offsetting the UDC's advances. ^{[4] [5]} The election outcome described as an upset was attributed to President Masisi's efforts to reconcile with segments of society previously at odds with Khama, such as labour unions, whose support had waned in the 2014 election. The rapprochement between the UDC leadership and Khama, who remains unpopular among urban and southern voters, led to a loss of support for the UDC among its traditional opposition base in the south. ^[4]

While international observers deemed the elections "free and fair," ^[6] Duma Boko contested the BDP's victory, alleging significant electoral irregularities. ^{[5] [7]} Despite the UDC's claims of multiple voting and bribery of election officials, their petition to invalidate the results was dismissed by the High Court in December 2019. Although the Court of Appeal agreed to hear the case in January 2020, it was later dismissed for lack of jurisdiction. ^[8]

Events during the 12th Parliament

Following the 2019 elections, there were three opposing parties in the National Assembly; the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC), the Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF) and the Alliance for Progressives (AP). On 6 August 2022, the BPF joined the UDC alliance, uniting all opposition parties in the National Assembly save for the AP. ^[9] The Botswana Congress Party (BCP), a major member of the UDC had expressed interest in leaving the UDC alliance after disagreements between BCP leader, Dumelang Saleshando and UDC leader, Duma Boko. ^[10] Saleshando had his position as Leader of the Opposition in the National Assembly stripped away from him by the UDC. ^[11] The BCP proposed forming a new electoral alliance composed of the AP and the newly formed minor political party, the Botswana Labour Party (BLP). ^[12] However, the AP withdrew from the coalition talks after unspecified disagreements with the BCP, opting to join the UDC instead. ^{[13] [14]} On 27 May 2023, the party's Central Committee unanimously decided to participate in the 2024 elections separate from the UDC alliance. The party cited concerns over the UDC's disregard for good democratic governance and vulnerability of their party leaders to capture by "private interests", as reasons for their exit. ^[15] Following a BPF party retreat on the 6th of April 2024, the party decided to leave the UDC alliance opting for a "pact model" instead of running under the UDC banner ahead of the 2024 elections. ^[16]

Electoral system

For the 2024 elections, the membership of the National Assembly consists of 61 MPs elected in single-member constituencies by first-past-the-post voting, six members appointed by the governing party, and two ex-officio members (the President and the Speaker). ^[17]

Voters are required to be citizens of Botswana and at least 18 years old, and have been resident in the country for at least 12 months prior to voter registration. People who are declared insane, hold dual citizenship, under a death sentence, convicted of an electoral offence or imprisoned for at least six months are not allowed to vote. ^[18] Candidates have to be citizens of Botswana, at least 21 years old, without an undischarged bankruptcy and be able to speak and read English sufficiently well to take part in parliamentary proceedings. ^[18] They must also obtain a nomination from at least two voters in their constituency and the support of seven. A deposit is required, which is refunded if the candidate receives at least 5% of the vote in the constituency. Members of the Ntlo ya Dikgosi cannot stand for election to the National Assembly. ^[18]

The President of Botswana will be elected by the National Assembly after the general elections.

Seat redistribution

In accordance with section 64. (1) of the Constitution of Botswana, a Delimitation Commission was appointed on 13 May 2022 (following the release of the decennial 2022 Botswana Census) to redistribute the constituencies of the National Assembly. The National Assembly passed a bill increasing the number of constituencies by four seats from 57 to 61 seats. ^[19]

Consultations with the public and various interest groups ran from 20 June to 28 November 2022. The Commission presented its finalised report to the President on 10 February 2023. ^[20]

New seats

1. Mogoditshane West
2. Maun North
3. Okavango West
4. Okavango East
5. Kgatleng Central

Eliminated seat

1. Mmathethe-Molapowabojang

Political parties and candidates

See also: Political parties in Botswana

The following table lists the political parties contesting the 2024 general election.

Name				Ideology	Political position	Leader	2019 result		Current seats
							Percentage (%)	Seats
	BDP		Botswana Democratic Party	Paternalistic conservatism	Centre to centre-right	Mokgweetsi Masisi	52.65	38 / 57	38 / 57
	UDC		Umbrella for Democratic Change	Social democracy Left-wing populism	Centre-left to left-wing	Duma Boko	35.88	15 / 57	7 / 57
	BCP		Botswana Congress Party	Social democracy	Centre-left	Dumelang Saleshando	14.57 [lower-alpha 5]	11 / 57	7 / 57
	BPF		Botswana Patriotic Front	Populism Pro-Ian Khama	Big tent	Mephato Reatile	4.41	3 / 57	4 / 57
	BMD		Botswana Movement for Democracy	Right-wing populism Christian right	Right-wing	Thuso Tiego	0.27	0 / 57	0 / 57
	BRP		Botswana Republican Party	Christian democracy Social conservatism	Centre-right to right-wing	Biggie Butale	did not exist		0 / 57

MPs standing under a different political affiliation

For further details of changes during the outgoing parliament see: 12th Parliament of Botswana § Floor crossings and expulsions.

Outgoing MP	2019 party		Constituency	2024 party
Aubrey Lesaso		UDC	Shoshong		BDP
Pono Moatlhodi		UDC	Tonota		BDP
Ignatius Moswaane		BDP	Francistown West		UDC
Mephato Reatile		BDP	Jwaneng-Mabutsane		BPF

MPs not standing for re-election

Name	Party		Constituency	Term in office	Date announced
Thapelo Matsheka		BDP	Lobatse	5 November 2019–present	October 2023 [21]

Opinion polls

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	BDP	UDC	BCP	BPF	BMD	Others	Undecided	Lead
Afrobarometer	23 Jul–10 Aug 2022	1,200	22.3%	37.5% [lower-alpha 6]	7.9%	3.4%	0.1%	1.2% [lower-alpha 7]	27.8% [lower-alpha 8]	15.2
2019 election	23 October 2019	–	52.7%	35.9%		4.4%	0.3%	6.7%	–	16.8

Notes

1. Eight of the seats in the 69-member legislature are not directly elected by the voters. Out of these eight seats, six are 'specially-elected' members appointed by the President and approved by the National Assembly. The remaining two seats are occupied by the Speaker and the President as ex-officio members.
2. This number represents the count of electors registered following the completion of the general voter registration period, which commenced on the 5th of January and concluded on the 3rd of February 2024 and the first supplementary registration held from the 26th of February to the 15th of March 2024. This count will be subject to change after the completion of the second supplementary voter registration period, which will begin on the 20th of May and will end on the 31st of May 2024. ^[1]
3. Incumbent presidents are ineligible to contest National Assembly seats; instead, they serve as ex-officio members of Parliament.
4. Since the prohibition of floor crossings in 2021, the UDC currently has a de jure 14 MPs, including the seven BCP MPs who have left the alliance. ^[2] The seat figure presented here represents the de facto number of UDC MPs.
5. As part of the UDC alliance, the BCP won 11 seats, and its candidates who stood under the UDC received approximately 14.57% of the national popular vote.
6. "UDC" only–29.4%
   BNF–5.1%
   AP–2.9%
   BPP–0.1%
7. RAP (disbanded on March 2023)–0.1%
   All others–0.8%
8. Would not vote–14.6%
   Refused to answer–7.4%
   Don't know–5.8%

References

1. "Another supplementary registration to gobble P65m". Mmegi . 20 February 2024. Retrieved 20 March 2024.
2. Tlhankane, Mompati (5 June 2023). "UDC accused of destabilising BCP". Mmegi . Retrieved 6 June 2023.
3. Seabo, Batlang; Nyenhuis, Robert (23 November 2021). "Botswana's 2019 General Elections: A Referendum on General Ian Khama". African Studies Review. 64 (4): 854–883. doi:10.1017/asr.2021.69. ISSN   0002-0206. S2CID   244539238.
4. Chutel, Lynsey (25 October 2019). "Botswana Election Won by President, Despite Rift with Predecessor". The New York Times. ISSN   0362-4331 . Retrieved 23 February 2024.
5. "Botswana opposition challenges election result in court". Reuters . 26 November 2019.
6. Benza, Brian (25 October 2019). "Botswana's Masisi retains presidency as BDP wins election". Reuters .
7. "Botswana: Freedom in the World 2020 Country Report". Freedom House. Retrieved 23 February 2024.
8. Writer, Staff (31 January 2020). "Court of Appeal ends UDC petition case with dismissal". Mmegi Online. Retrieved 23 February 2024.
9. Admin. ""BPF is a member of UDC" – Mohwasa". Botswana Gazette. Retrieved 12 January 2023.
10. Tlhankane, Mompati (26 December 2022). "Boko, Saleshando exchanges". Mmegi Online. Retrieved 12 January 2023.
11. "KEORAPETSE NEW LOO". dailynews.gov.bw. Retrieved 11 January 2023.
12. Tlhankane, Mompati (27 February 2023). "BCP yet to officially ditch UDC". Mmegi Online . Retrieved 28 March 2023.
13. "AP withdraws from cooperation talks". Mmegi . 17 April 2023. Retrieved 18 April 2023.
14. Dube, Chakalisa (31 July 2023). "AP joins fight against vote 'rigging'". Mmegi Online . Retrieved 13 October 2023.
15. "Botswana Congress Party". www.facebook.com. Retrieved 6 June 2023.
16. "BPF has decided to use own symbol come October elections". www.facebook.com. Retrieved 7 April 2024.
17. "FAQs". Parliament of Botswana. Retrieved 21 April 2022.
18. Electoral system IPU
19. Mathala, Sharon (15 February 2023). "Four new constituencies come 2024". Mmegi Online. Retrieved 16 February 2023.
20. Galeragwe, Moshe (12 February 2023). "DELIMITATION COMMISSION PRESENTS REPORT". dailynews.gov.bw. Retrieved 16 February 2023.
21. "I won't contest but I remain BDP- Matsheka". Mmegi . 20 May 2022.