2024 South African general election

Last updated

2024 South African general election
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←  2019 29 May 20242029 →
All 400 seats in the National Assembly
201 seats needed for a majority
 First partySecond partyThird party
 
Cyril Ramaphosa - President of South Africa - 2018 (cropped).jpg
John Steenhuisen (cropped).jpg
Julius Malema, EFF CIC (2019).png
Leader Cyril Ramaphosa John Steenhuisen Julius Malema
Party ANC DA EFF
Alliance Tripartite Alliance Multi-Party Charter
Last election57.5%, 230 seats20.77%, 84 seats10.8%, 44 seats
 Fourth partyFifth partySixth party
 
Hon-velenkosini-hlabisa.jpg
PJ Groenewald (cropped).jpg
K Meshoe Toronto 2013.png
Leader Velenkosini Hlabisa Pieter Groenewald Kenneth Meshoe
Party IFP FF Plus ACDP
Alliance Multi-Party Charter Multi-Party Charter Multi-Party Charter
Last election3.38%, 14 seats2.38%, 10 seats0.84%, 4 seats
President before election

Cyril Ramaphosa
ANC

Elected President

TBD

General elections will be held in South Africa on 29 May 2024 to elect a new National Assembly as well as the provincial legislature in each province. [1] [2] This will be the seventh general election held under the conditions of universal adult suffrage since the end of the apartheid era in 1994. The new National Council of Provinces (NCOP) will be elected at the first sitting of each provincial legislature. Since the inaugural post-apartheid election in 1994, the African National Congress (ANC) has continuously achieved a majority in both chambers of the South African Parliament: the National Assembly (lower house) and the National Council of Provinces (upper house).

Contents

The date of the elections are set by the incumbent President, Cyril Ramaphosa, and must be within 90 days of the end of the term of the current Parliament. [3] It was announced on 20 February 2024 that the election would be held on 29 May 2024. [4]

Background

In the 2021 South African municipal elections, the African National Congress received less than 50% of the vote for the first time nationwide in any election since the end of apartheid. [5] The party also lost support in the key metros of Tshwane (Pretoria), Johannesburg, Ekurhuleni, and eThekwini (Durban). The ANC retained control of eThekwini while the Democratic Alliance managed to take control of Johannesburg and Ekurhuleni through a majority coalition and a minority coalition respectively, in addition to forming a majority coalition government in Tshwane, which it had governed since 2016. [6]

In early 2023, the ANC and Economic Freedom Fighters formed a coalition in Johannesburg and Ekurhuleni where the two parties hold MMC positions whilst electing a mayor from a minority party. [7] In April 2023, noting the prospects of an ANC/EFF national coalition, the DA leader John Steenhuisen called for "like-minded" parties to join together to prevent a "doomsday coalition". [8]

Support for the ANC has declined in opinion polls leading to expectations of a hung parliament. [9]

United opposition

In July 2023, a joint statement by the Democratic Alliance (DA), Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), ActionSA, Freedom Front Plus (FF Plus), the United Independent Movement (UIM) and the Spectrum National Party (SNP) was released announcing a convention on 16 and 17 August proposing a national coalition in the event of a hung parliament. [10] On 17 August 2023 a pre-election agreement called the Multi-Party Charter was signed between the parties as well as the Independent South African National Civic Organisation, with the aim of presenting a united front against the two decade rule of the African National Congress (ANC) party, and the recent rise of the controversial Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) party. [11] On 7 October 2023, the African Christian Democratic Party (ACDP) announced it would be joining the charter increasing the charter's seat count from 108 to 112 in the 400 seat National Assembly. [12]

The Spectrum National Party and the Unemployed People's Movement were the two constituent parties of the Multi-Party Charter that failed to meet the Independent Electoral Commission's minimum number of signatures required to contest seats in the National Assembly. [13]

Umkhonto we Sizwe

On 16 December 2023, former President Jacob Zuma announced his departure from the ANC, accusing the party and incumbent President Cyril Ramaphosa of serving as a “proxy for white monopoly capital.” He also announced establishment of his own political party, Umkhonto we Sizwe (MK), named after the apartheid-era military wing of the ANC. [14] The latter filed a lawsuit against the MK's registration in the Electoral Commission of South Africa, which was dismissed by the Electoral Court of South Africa on 26 March 2024 due to lack of merit. The ANC also plans to file a lawsuit against the party's naming after the historic MK. [15] According to opinion polling, MK could become the kingmakers after the elections. [16]

On 28 March 2024, the Electoral Commission barred Zuma from standing in the election, citing a previous criminal conviction. [17] MK appealed the ruling, [18] with Zuma's lawyers arguing that the conviction was of a civil nature, and the decision was overturned by the Electoral Court on 9 April, [19] permitting Zuma to stand. [20]

The Electoral Commission announced on 12 April that it would approach the Constitutional Court for clarity on Section 47(1)(e) of the Constitution, the provision used to uphold the initial objection against Mr Zuma. [21]

Electoral system

South Africa has a parliamentary system of government. The President of South Africa is unusual among heads of state of countries with a parliamentary system in that the President is also the head of government, with executive powers.

In June 2020, the Constitutional Court ruled in New Nation Movement NPC v President of the Republic of South Africa that the Electoral Act was unconstitutional to the extent that it did not allow independents to contest national and provincial elections. [22] Since the first elections held under universal suffrage, 400 members elected were elected to the National Assembly by a system of proportional representation with a closed list approach. Two hundred members were elected from national party lists, while the other 200 were elected from provincial party lists in each of the nine provinces. The national list seats were awarded by subtracting seats won at the provincial level from each party's national allocation to generate a maximally proportional result. The Droop quota variant of the largest remainder method was used to allocate seats at both the national and provincial levels. [23] Provincial legislatures were also elected by a system of proportional representation with closed party lists.

In February 2021, Home Affairs Minister Aaron Motsoaledi appointed a ministerial advisory committee led by Valli Moosa to recommend a new electoral system. [24] While the committee was divided, a slim majority of members favoured a hybrid system with half of the seats elected in constituencies and the other half elected through party lists. [25]

Election of the National Assembly and provincial legislatures

On 17 April 2023, President Cyril Ramaphosa signed the Electoral Amendment Bill into law allowing independent candidates to stand for election to the National Assembly and provincial legislatures while keeping the proportional representation with closed lists. Two hundred members will be elected from national party lists, while the remaining 200 seats will be contested by political parties and independent candidates in each of the nine provinces. In provincial legislatures, the single-tier multimember proportional system will continue to apply with political parties and independent candidates contesting for seats. Voters will receive three ballot papers as opposed to two in previous elections; the first ballot will be to elect the 200 members of the National Assembly only contested by political parties and the second ballot will be to elect the remaining 200 members of the National Assembly which will be contested by political parties and independent candidates in each of the nine provinces while the third ballot will be to elect members of the provincial legislatures with political parties and independent candidates as well. [26]

Election of the president and premiers

Following the election, the President of South Africa will be elected by the National Assembly. Although the President is required to be a member of the National Assembly at the time of election, a person that is elected as President must resign their seat in order to assume office. [27] The premiers of each province will also be elected by the respective provincial legislatures after the election. [23]

NCOP elections

The National Council of Provinces (NCOP) comprises 90 members, ten elected by each of the provincial legislatures in proportion to the composition of the legislature. The NCOP members will be sworn in the day after the first sitting of the National Assembly. [23]

Parties and candidates

Preliminary candidate lists

On 26 March 2024, the Independent Electoral Commission published the preliminary candidate lists, listing the following fifty-two parties as having national candidates (as opposed to regional and provincial): [28] #HOPE4SA, Abantu Batho Congress, Able Leadership, Action Alliance Development Party, ActionSA, Africa Africans Reclaim, African Christian Democratic Party, African Congress for Transformation, African Content Movement, African Heart Congress, African Independent Congress, African Movement Congress, African National Congress, African People's Convention, African People's Movement, African Transformation Movement, Al Jama-ah, All Citizens Party, Alliance of Citizens for Change, Allied Movement for Change (AM4C), Azanian People's Organisation, Build One South Africa with Mmusi Maimane, Citizans, Congress of the People, Conservatives in Action, Democratic Alliance, Democratic Liberal Congress, Economic Freedom Fighters, Economic Liberators Forum South Africa, Forum 4 Service Delivery, Free Democrats, GOOD, Independent South African National Civic Organisation, Inkatha Freedom Party, National Coloured Congress, National Freedom Party, Northern Cape Communities Movement, Organic Humanity Movement, Pan Africanist Congress of Azania, Patriotic Alliance, People's Movement for Change, Referendum Party, Rise Mzansi, Sizwe Ummah Nation, South African Rainbow Alliance, South African Royal Kingdoms Organization, uMkhonto weSizwe, United Africans Transformation, United Democratic Movement, United Independent Movement, Vryheidsfront Plus, and Xiluva.

Final candidate lists and independent candidates

On 10 April 2024, the Independent Electoral Commission published the final candidate lists, again listing fifty-two parties as having national compensatory candidates (as opposed to national regional and provincial). The Independent South African National Civic Organisation no longer appeared on the list, while the Africa Restoration Alliance was added. [29] Six independent candidates appeared on the national regional lists, namely Zackie Achmat, Louis Liebenberg, Anele Mda, Lovemore N'dou, Ntakadzeni Phathela, and Lehlohonolo Ramoba. [30]

Issues

Voter turnout

Voter turnout has been decreasing since the end of Apartheid, when 86% of eligible voters turned out. [31]

Undocumented Migration

South Africa has been facing many challenges including deteriorating infrastructure in crucial sectors like power and water, alongside persistently high levels of unemployment and crime. [32] The general public has pointed fingers at Illegal immigration, attributing the nation's woes to their presence. [33] Meanwhile, other voices within the political sphere call for tighter border controls in response to the perceived strain caused by undocumented migrants on public services and resources. [34] [35] [36]

Corruption

The Judicial Commission of Inquiry into Allegations of State Capture, known colloquially as the Zondo Commission completed its work and submitted its final report to the President in June 2022. [37] The Commission cost the South African taxpayer "almost R1 billion". [38] Investigator Paul Holden of Shadow World Investigations read into evidence that State capture cost the South African economy at least R49,157,323,233.68 (R49 billion). [39]

In their 2024 election manifesto, the African National Congress claims that, as per the Zondo Commission's recommendations, "laws, institutions and practices are being put in place to reduce the potential for corruption of any sort and on any scale". [40] The Democratic Alliance puts the blame for corruption and State Capture squarely on the shoulders of the ANC, saying that it will "establish a genuinely independent anti-crime and anti-corruption unit by dissolving the Hawks and establishing a new Chapter 9 institution, an Anti-Corruption Commission, which will only be accountable to the Parliament of South Africa." [41] The Economic Freedom Fighters proposes to amend the Constitution to "make the National Prosecuting Authority a Chapter 9 institution accountable to Parliament. [42]

The ANC was also criticized for provisionally including four ministers (Zizi Kodwa, Malusi Gigaba, David Mahlobo, and Gwede Mantashe) who were implicated in a corruption investigation into the administration of former President Jacob Zuma on 11 March, pending the final results of an intraparty review. Fourteen other officials were either disqualified or not listed as candidates by the ANC over the same issue. [43]

Land reform

The ANC's proposed amendment of Section 25 of the Constitution of South Africa failed in the Parliament of South Africa, by a vote of 204 MPs in favour, 145 MPs against and 0 abstentions. [44] The bill required a two-thirds majority. The constitutionality of the amendment was also questioned by civil society organisations. [45] [46] The ANC maintains that Expropriation without Compensation is necessary, as does the EFF. [47] The DA and Freedom Front Plus, ACDP and IFP remain opposed to the ANC's renewed attempt at expropriation through the Expropriation Amendment Bill. [48] [49]

Energy crisis

Rolling blackouts, or "loadshedding", caused by problems with the state utility Eskom have been occurring since 2007, however the prevalence of blackouts has increased substantially since 2020. [50] There is general dissatisfaction with the ANC's handling of the blackouts, as "a poll from last May found that 24% of voters who had previously backed the ANC planned to take their votes elsewhere if load shedding... is not resolved." That being said, the issue will likely continue to be salient well after the election, as any government, new or incumbent, will have limited tools to combat the issue. [51]

Crime

According to the South African Police Service Crime Statistics for Quarter 2 of the 2023-24 financial year, reported contact crimes (defined by SAPS as "crimes against the person") has increased by 3 391 (2.1%) compared to the previous year. [52] Recorded attempted murder illustrated the highest increase year-on-year, with 12.3%. [52] Total contact crimes reported for the quarter are 165,909. The murder rate correlates to 77 people murdered per day. 160 cases of assault with the intent to do grievous bodily harm are reported each day. [53] In context of the election, political violence is reportedly on the rise, especially in KwaZulu-Natal. [54]

Crime Statistics for Quarter 3 of the 2023-24 financial year show an increase of 3.8% compared to the previous year. [55] Attempted murder once again illustrated the highest increase year-on-year, with 13%. Total contact crimes reported for the quarter are 190,973. The murder rate correlates to 86 people per day and 88 attempts at murder. Assault with the attempt to do grievous bodily harm (Assault GBH) correlates to 595 incidents per day. [56]

Action Society notes that "if the current murder trend continues, at least 31 000 people will be killed in the next 12 months...the [South African Government] has lost control..." [56]

Devolution of policing

Over the last term of government, the devolution of policing power has become a key issue between the Western Cape Government and the Minister of Police, Bheki Cele. [57] The Western Cape Government argues that the Minister has the power to devolve policing, but the Minister denies having the power of devolution, saying that "the centralisation of the SAPS [is] in line with the Department [of Police's] constitutional mandate to prevent, combat and investigate crime..." [58] Section 205 of the Constitution of South Africa sets out policing policy in South Africa, noting that the police service "must be structured to function in national [and] provincial...spheres of government." [59] The Constitution gives provincial executives the power to monitor police conduct within their respective provinces, as well as the responsibility for policing functions in three cases; namely Chapter 11 of the Constitution, assigned to provincial government in terms of national legislation and allocated to it in national policing policy. [59]

Housing

The lack of adequate housing has been a major issue. [60] According to a report from Parliament, dated May 2022, the human settlements sector had a total of 3.4 million housing units built since 1994. The respective provinces and municipalities delivered a separate 1.3 million "serviced sites". [61] A parliamentary question to the Minister of Human Settlements revealed there were 2,456,773 households registered on the National Housing Needs Register as of February 2023. [62] In the City of Cape Town, there were 375,150 on the municipalities' Housing Needs Register. [63]

In a Parliamentary question to the Minister of Human Settlements, the Department revealed that it had 245,587 houses built since 1 January 2019. [64]

Cadre deployment

The ANC has practised a policy of employing people who are loyal to the ANC to positions within institutions of government. The Zondo Commission has found that cadre deployment played a significant part in corruption and went as far as to say that it is "illegal and unconstitutional". [65]

On 12 February 2024, the Constitutional Court ruled that the ANC had five days to hand over their cadre deployment records to the Democratic Alliance dating back to 1 January 2013. [66] Documents released by the DA so far contain a sworn affidavit from Thapelo Masilela, a Strategic Support Manager in the Office of the ANC Deputy Secretary General's Office which states that a laptop containing information in relation to the Deployment Committee had "crashed and...data which was stored on that hard drive had been lost". [67] DA Federal Leader, John Steenhuisen responded in a press briefing on 23 February 2024 saying "the missing laptops, the missing minutes, President's Cyril Ramaphosa WhatsApp's from his own personal devices are simply incongruent with the way in which the modern world works." [68] showing that the party does not believe that the ANC has entirely complied with the order of the Constitutional Court.

Foreign policy

Cyril Ramaphosa said that South Africa v. Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) may lead to foreign interference in the general election. [69] [70]

The African Growth & Opportunity Act

South Africa's links to Russia and China, through military co-operation [71] and potential co-operation with Iran [72] has placed the country in danger of losing its preferential access to the U.S. market through the African Growth and Opportunity Act, with multiple members of the U.S. Congress raising concern with South Africa's alleged threats to U.S. interests, the most high-ranking member being Senator Jim Risch, the Ranking Member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. [73] [72] In response, the Leader of the Opposition, John Steenhuisen led a delegation arguing that "the ANC is not South Africa" in an effort to lessen the risk of a possible removal from AGOA. [73] Later, the Western Cape Premier, Alan Winde and a Western Cape Government delegation also made a trip to the United States to detail the possible impact that a loss would have on the agricultural industry in the province. [74] The Leader of the Opposition in the Western Cape Provincial Parliament, Cameron Dugmore (ANC) accused the provincial government of wasting taxpayer's money, saying "this trip was about the DA’s desperation to secure support for the 2024 elections by creating a certain narrative about this matter". [75]

Cape independence

Various parties and organisations proposing Cape independence have existed since 2007 and proponents claim that the idea has been gaining more traction in recent years. [76] [ additional citation(s) needed ] A poll published by the Cape Independence Party in August 2023 found that 68% of an unverified group of voters in the Western Cape, and 79% of self identified DA voters in the Western Cape, are in favour of holding a referendum on Cape independence. [77]

The Referendum Party was formed in November 2023 as a single-issue political party contesting in the 2024 general election to pressure the Western Cape Democratic Alliance government into holding a referendum on Western Cape independence as part of any potential coalition agreement. [78]

The Cape Independence Party, which had contested in 2009 and 2019, did not make it on to the national ballot or the Western Cape provincial ballot. The Referendum Party made it on to both ballots. [79] [80]

Highly contested provinces

Gauteng

Gauteng is the most populated province and is the de facto economic hub of South Africa. In 2019 the ANC barely retained the province, getting 50.19% of the vote. The DA is hoping to win Gauteng with Solly Msimanga as their premier candidate. [81] Funzi Ngobeni is ActionSA's premier candidate. [82] While ANC's candidate is current premier, Panyaza Lesufi.

KwaZulu-Natal

KwaZulu-Natal is the second most populated province and is home to the busiest port in southern Africa. Recent polling has the new MK Party leading in the province, having grown substantially at the expense of ANC support. Christopher Pappas is the premier candidate for the DA while Thami Ntuli is the IFP's candidate. [83] [84] The ANC's premier candidate is Sbongiseni Duma.

Western Cape

As of April 2024, the Western Cape is the only province not to be controlled by the ANC. The DA, which has controlled the province since 2009, is looking to retain the province with Premier Alan Winde as their premier candidate. [85]

Opinion polls

LOESS curve of the polling for the 2024 South African General Election. 2024 South African General Election.png
LOESS curve of the polling for the 2024 South African General Election.
Polling OrganisationFieldwork DateSample
Size		 ANC DA MK EFF IFP VF+ ACDP ActionSA Others Don't
Know [lower-alpha 1] 		Lead
Social Research Foundation April 20241,83537%25%13%11%5%2%2%2%3%—12pp
Brenthurst Foundation/SABI 12–28 February 20241,50639%27%13%10%2%——2%5%—12pp
ENCA/Markdata 19 January – 14 February 20243,02241.4%20%10.9%15.5%4.3%0.6%0.5%1.4%5.4%—21.4pp
December 2023 uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK Party) splits from the ANC.
IPSOS 23 October – 1 December 20233,60040.5%20.5%—19.6%4.9%2.1%1%4.3%7.1—20pp
IRR October 202360446.5%26.1%—11.6%9.4%—————20.4pp
IPSOS October 2023—50%18%—16%5%2%1%4%4%—32pp
Social Research Foundation October 20231,41245%31%—9%6%———9%—14pp
7 October 2023The ACDP joins the Multi-Party Charter. The charter now holds 112 out of the 400-seat National Assembly.
Brenthurst Foundation/SABI 11 September – 3 October 20231,50041%23%—17%7%2%—3%4%3%18pp
17 July 2023The Multi-Party Charter is signed between the DA, IFP, VF+ and 4 other parties holding 108 of 400 National Assembly seats.
IPSOS 1 June – 20 July 20233,60043%20%—18%5%2%1%4%7%—23pp
IPSOS & Inclusive Society Institute April 20233,60049.9%23.6%—12.7%4.4%——4.1%5.2%—26.3pp
Social Research Foundation March 20231,51745.9%23.3%—8.4%6.1%2.2%0.9%3.1%10.1%—22.6pp
Social Research Foundation 29 August 20223,20452%25%—11%———5%7%27pp
50%25%—12%———6%7%25pp
Brenthurst Foundation 27 October – 10 November 20221,00047.6%24%—10.7%———4%12.2%—23.6pp
Rivonia Circle September – October 20222,00041%18%—15%———6%7%13%23pp
IPSOS 14 May – 3 July 20223,60042%11%—9%2%2%1%3%4%26%31pp
2021 municipal elections.1 November 2021N/A47.52%19.84%—10.54%6.27%2.32%0.71%1.82%6.76%—27.68pp
IPSOS 1 November 2021N/A43.4%24.2%—14.8%1.9%1.6%0.9%3.7%9.5%31%19.2pp
IPSOS July – September 20203,75850%16%—13%2%1%——2%16%34pp
IPSOS 20 September – 8 November 20193,60055%13%—8%2%1%1%—3%18%42pp
2019 general election.8 May 2019—57.5%20.8%—10.8%3.4%2.4%0.8%—10.1%—36.7pp

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ Includes abstention and no answer responses


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References

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  2. ↑ "South Africa to hold elections on May 29". www.aa.com.tr. Retrieved 29 February 2024.
  3. ↑ "Election season kicks off but no date yet". Business Day. 24 October 2023.
  4. ↑ "President Cyril Ramaphosa announces 2024 General Elections date". South African Government. 20 February 2024.
  5. ↑ "A landmark as South Africa's ANC dips below 50% support". AP News. 5 November 2021. Retrieved 1 August 2023.
  6. ↑ Harper, Paddy. "Historic losses for ANC open new era in South African politics". Africanews. Retrieved 1 August 2023.
  7. ↑ "ANC and EFF partnership 'negotiating in good faith' to govern Gauteng metros". 702. Retrieved 1 August 2023.
  8. ↑ "DA to fight ANC-EFF 'doomsday coalition'" . BusinessLIVE. Retrieved 1 August 2023.
  9. ↑ "Support for ANC will continue to decline following South Africa elections, pollster predicts". The Irish Times. Retrieved 31 January 2024.
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