| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
All 90 seats to the Northern Ireland Assembly | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
A Northern Ireland Assembly election will be held to elect 90 members to the Northern Ireland Assembly on or before 6 May 2027.
After the Northern Ireland Assembly election on 5 May 2022, the DUP (the largest unionist party in the legislature) declined to agree on the appointment of Speaker to the Assembly, preventing the formation of an Executive. Chris Heaton-Harris, the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, confirmed a legal obligation to call an election if no Executive was formed by a 27 October 2022 deadline. [2] No Executive was formed by this deadline, [3] but the deadline was extended by legislation in the Westminster Parliament. [4] [5] A deadline of 18 January 2024 was then proposed. [6] [7] On 31 January 2024 the DUP and UK Government announced a deal had been struck to revive the Executive, [8] and on 3 February 2024 the Assembly swore in Sinn Fein First Minister Michelle O'Neill and DUP deputy First Minister Emma Little-Pengelly. [9]
This election will be the eighth since the assembly was established in 1998. Seven parties have MLAs in the seventh assembly: Sinn Féin led by Michelle O'Neill, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) led by Gavin Robinson, [10] Alliance led by Naomi Long, the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) led by Mike Nesbitt, the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) led by Claire Hanna, Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) led by Jim Allister, and People Before Profit (PBP) led by Richard Boyd Barrett.
Section 7 of the Northern Ireland (Miscellaneous Provisions) Act 2014 (c. 13) specifies that elections will be held on the first Thursday in May on the fifth calendar year following that in which its predecessor was elected, [11] which is 6 May 2027. However, there are several circumstances in which the Assembly can be dissolved earlier.
After the 2022 Assembly election, the DUP declined to join in forming a government due to its opposition to the Northern Ireland Protocol on post-Brexit trading arrangements. If no government is formed within six months, the United Kingdom Government's Northern Ireland Secretary has to call a new election early or come up with some other solution. [12] No government was formed by the deadline. [13] Rather than call a new election, Heaton-Harris introduced legislation to extend the deadline, [14] the Northern Ireland (Executive Formation etc) Act 2022 (c. 48). [15] [16] [17] The new deadline also passed with no resolution. [14] [18] [19] Heaton-Harris produced a further extension through legislation via the Northern Ireland (Executive Formation and Organ and Tissue Donation) Act 2023. [20] [21]
On 27 February 2023, the UK and EU announced the Windsor Framework to make changes to the Northern Ireland Protocol. [22] It was hoped that this would lead to formation of an Assembly executive. [23] However, the DUP boycott continued. [24] Heaton-Harris again brought primary legislation to further extend the deadline to 8 February 2024, via the Northern Ireland (Executive Formation) Act 2024. [25] [26] [27]
On 30 January, the DUP announced that they would accept a deal conditional on legislation being passed by the UK government that saw them agreeing to form an executive with Sinn Fein. [28] A new executive was formed on 3 February 2024.
Dates conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample size | SF N | DUP U | APNI O | UUP U | SDLP N | TUV U | Green O | Aontú N | PBP O | Other | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1–4 Nov 2024 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,209 | 29% | 19% | 13% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 10% |
10 October 2024 | Richard Boyd Barrett becomes the leader of People Before Profit (PBP) | |||||||||||||
5 October 2024 | Claire Hanna becomes the leader of the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) | |||||||||||||
30 August 2024 | Mike Nesbitt becomes the leader of the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) | |||||||||||||
29 August 2024 | Colum Eastwood resigns as leader of the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) | |||||||||||||
19 August 2024 | Doug Beattie resigns as leader of the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) | |||||||||||||
16–19 August 2024 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,443 | 30% | 18% | 15% | 12% | 8% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 4% | 12% |
4 Jul 2024 | 2024 general election | – | 27.0% | 22.1% | 15.0% | 12.2% | 11.1% | 6.2% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 3.3% Independent on 3.1% | 7.6% | |
10 May-13 May 2024 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 1,021 | 29% | 21% | 15% | 11% | 8% | 8% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 8% |
29 Mar 2024 | Jeffrey Donaldson resigns as leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) | |||||||||||||
9–12 February 2024 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,207 | 31% | 24% | 14% | 10% | 7% | 6% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 7% |
3 Feb 2024 | Establishment of the new executive | |||||||||||||
27–30 Oct 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,046 | 31% | 28% | 16% | 8% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% |
14 January – 7 September 2023 | Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey | ARK | 1,200 | 19% | 15% | 22% | 10% | 7% | – | 4% | – | – | 22% None of these on 10% I don't know on 8% Other party on 3% Other answer on 1% | 3% |
11–14 Aug 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 2,950 | 31% | 26% | 15% | 10% | 6% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 5% |
18 May 2023 | 2023 local elections | – | 30.9% | 23.3% | 13.3% | 10.9% | 8.7% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 5.4% NI Conservatives on 0.1% | 7.6% | |
21–24 Apr 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,557 | 29% | 25% | 13% | 11% | 7% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 4% |
3–14 Mar 2023 | Institute of Irish Studies | University of Liverpool/The Irish News | N/A | 30.6% | 23.9% | 15.4% | 11.3% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 0.2% | 2.2% | 1.7% NI Conservatives on 1.3% | 6.7% |
20–23 Jan 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 1,499 | 31% | 25% | 15% | 10% | 7% | 7% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 6% |
4–7 Nov 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,351 | 32% | 27% | 15% | 9% | 7% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 5% |
12–15 Aug 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,384 | 30% | 24% | 16% | 11% | 7% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 6% |
28 Jun – 10 Jul 2022 | Institute of Irish Studies | University of Liverpool/The Irish News | 1,000 | 30.9% | 20.1% | 15.3% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 10.8% |
5 May 2022 | 2022 Assembly election | – | 29.0% | 21.3% | 13.5% | 11.2% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 3.8% NI Conservatives on 0.03% | 7.7% |
Note: Next to the party initials at the top of the table there are the letters "N", "O", and "U". These show how the parties have chosen to designate themselves, Unionist (U), Nationalist (N) or other (O), in the Assembly previously (or, in the case of Aontú, how they are expected to designate if they win a seat). This is a function of the Assembly's consociational design.
The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Michelle O'Neill, Vice President of Sinn Féin since 10 February 2018, First Minister of Northern Ireland since 3 February 2024 and Deputy First Minister of Northern Ireland from 11 January 2020 to 4 February 2022.
Dates conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample size | Good/Great | Bad/Awful | Don't know | Net approval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
9–12 February 2024 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,207 | 54% | 29% | 17% | +25% |
3 February 2024 | O'Neill becomes First Minister of Northern Ireland | ||||||
11–14 August 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 2,950 | 43% | 37% | 20% | +6% |
21–24 April 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,957 | 41% | 37% | 22% | +4% |
20–23 January 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 1,449 | 41% | 40% | 19% | +4% |
4–7 November 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,351 | 46% | 37% | 17% | +9% |
12–15 August 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,384 | 40% | 42% | 18% | –2% |
The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Jeffrey Donaldson, leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) until 29 March 2024.
Dates conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample size | Good/Great | Bad/Awful | Don't know | Net approval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
29 March 2024 | Donaldson resigns as leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) | ||||||
9–12 February 2024 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,207 | 36% | 48% | 16% | –12% |
11–14 August 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 2,950 | 24% | 66% | 10% | –42% |
21–24 April 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,957 | 27% | 65% | 8% | –38% |
20–23 January 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 1,449 | 25% | 63% | 12% | –38% |
4–7 November 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,351 | 29% | 65% | 6% | –36% |
12–15 August 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,384 | 27% | 64% | 9% | –37% |
The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Naomi Long, leader of the Alliance Party since 26 October 2016 and Minister of Justice since 3 February 2024 and from 11 January 2020 to 27 October 2022.
Dates conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample size | Good/Great | Bad/Awful | Don't know | Net approval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
9–12 February 2024 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,207 | 38% | 36% | 26% | +2% |
3 February 2024 | Long becomes Minister of Justice | ||||||
11–14 August 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 2,950 | 38% | 39% | 23% | –1% |
21–24 April 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,957 | 40% | 38% | 22% | +2% |
20–23 January 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 1,449 | 37% | 38% | 25% | –1% |
4–7 November 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,351 | 45% | 37% | 18% | +8% |
27 October 2022 | Long is removed as Minister of Justice due to the collapse of the power-sharing Northern Ireland Executive | ||||||
12–15 August 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,384 | 46% | 37% | 17% | +9% |
The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Doug Beattie, leader of the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) since 27 May 2021.
Dates conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample size | Good/Great | Bad/Awful | Don't know | Net approval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
19 August 2024 | Beattie resigns as leader of the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) | ||||||
9–12 February 2024 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,207 | 35% | 35% | 30% | 0% |
11–14 August 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 2,950 | 34% | 38% | 28% | –4% |
21–24 April 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,957 | 38% | 33% | 29% | +5% |
20–23 January 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 1,449 | 28% | 42% | 30% | –14% |
4–7 November 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,351 | 37% | 32% | 31% | +5% |
12–15 August 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,384 | 34% | 34% | 32% | 0% |
The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Colum Eastwood, leader of the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) since 14 November 2015.
Dates conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample size | Good/Great | Bad/Awful | Don't know | Net approval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
29 August 2024 | Eastwood resigns as leader of the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) | ||||||
9–12 February 2024 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,207 | 31% | 41% | 28% | –10% |
11–14 August 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 2,950 | 26% | 43% | 31% | –17% |
21–24 April 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,957 | 32% | 40% | 28% | –8% |
20–23 January 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 1,449 | 33% | 38% | 29% | –5% |
4–7 November 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,351 | 31% | 39% | 30% | –8% |
12–15 August 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,384 | 34% | 39% | 27% | –5% |
The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Jim Allister, leader of Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) since 7 December 2007.
Dates conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample size | Good/Great | Bad/Awful | Don't know | Net approval |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4 July 2024 | Allister is elected as Member of Parliament (MP) for North Antrim | ||||||
9–12 February 2024 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,207 | 20% | 70% | 10% | –50% |
11–14 August 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 2,950 | 23% | 63% | 14% | –40% |
21–24 April 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,957 | 27% | 61% | 12% | –34% |
20–23 January 2023 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 1,449 | 27% | 57% | 16% | –30% |
4–7 November 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,351 | 27% | 59% | 14% | –32% |
12–15 August 2022 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,384 | 31% | 54% | 15% | –23% |
The following poll asked respondents to rate the performance of political leaders in the last few months, scoring from 0% to 100% for each leader.
Dates conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample size | Simon Harris Taoiseach Ireland | Mary Lou McDonald Sinn Féin President | Chris Heaton-Harris NI Secretary of State | Rishi Sunak UK Prime Minister | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5 July 2024 | Hilary Benn becomes Secretary of State for Northern Ireland | |||||||
Keir Starmer becomes Prime Minister of the United Kingdom | ||||||||
10–13 May 2024 | LucidTalk | Belfast Telegraph | 3,316 | 36% | 39% | 20% | 16% | 3% |
9 April 2024 | Simon Harris becomes Taoiseach | |||||||
17 December 2022 | Leo Varadkar becomes Taoiseach | |||||||
25 October 2022 | Rishi Sunak becomes Prime Minister of the United Kingdom | |||||||
6 September 2022 | Chris Heaton-Harris becomes Secretary of State for Northern Ireland | |||||||
Liz Truss becomes Prime Minister of the United Kingdom | ||||||||
7 July 2022 | Shailesh Vara becomes Secretary of State for Northern Ireland |
Northern Ireland is one of the four countries of the United Kingdom, situated in the north-east of the island of Ireland. It was created as a separate legal entity on 3 May 1921 under the Government of Ireland Act 1920. The new autonomous Northern Ireland was formed from six of the nine counties of Ulster: four counties with unionist majorities – Antrim, Armagh, Down, and Londonderry – and two counties with slight Irish nationalist majorities – Fermanagh and Tyrone – in the 1918 General Election. The remaining three Ulster counties with larger nationalist majorities were not included. In large part unionists, at least in the north-east, supported its creation while nationalists were opposed.
The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) is a unionist, loyalist, British nationalist and national conservative political party in Northern Ireland. It was founded in 1971 during the Troubles by Ian Paisley, who led the party for the next 37 years. It is currently led by Gavin Robinson, who initially stepped in as an interim after the resignation of Jeffrey Donaldson. It is the second-largest party in the Northern Ireland Assembly, and won five seats in the House of Commons of the United Kingdom at the 2024 election. The party has been mostly described as right-wing and socially conservative, being anti-abortion and opposing same-sex marriage. The DUP sees itself as defending Britishness and Ulster Protestant culture against Irish nationalism and republicanism. It is also Eurosceptic and supported Brexit.
The Northern Ireland Assembly, often referred to by the metonym Stormont, is the devolved legislature of Northern Ireland. It has power to legislate in a wide range of areas that are not explicitly reserved to the Parliament of the United Kingdom, and to appoint the Northern Ireland Executive. It sits at Parliament Buildings at Stormont in Belfast.
The Northern Ireland Executive is the devolved government of Northern Ireland, an administrative branch of the legislature – the Northern Ireland Assembly, situated in Belfast. It is answerable to the assembly and was initially established according to the terms of the Northern Ireland Act 1998, which followed the Good Friday Agreement. The executive is referred to in the legislation as the Executive Committee of the assembly and is an example of consociationalist ("power-sharing") government.
The 2003 Northern Ireland Assembly election was held on Wednesday, 26 November 2003, after being suspended for just over a year. It was the second election to take place since the devolved assembly was established in 1998. Each of Northern Ireland's eighteen Westminster Parliamentary constituencies elected six members by single transferable vote, giving a total of 108 Members of the Legislative Assembly (MLAs). The election was contested by 18 parties and many independent candidates.
James Hugh Allister is a Northern Irish politician and barrister who has served as Member of Parliament (MP) for North Antrim since the 2024 general election. He founded the Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) in 2007 and has led the party since its formation. Prior to his election to Westminster, Allister was a member of the Legislative Assembly (MLA) for North Antrim, having been first elected in the 2011 Assembly election.
The 2007 Northern Ireland Assembly election was held on Wednesday, 7 March 2007. It was the third election to take place since the devolved assembly was established in 1998. The election saw endorsement of the St Andrews Agreement and the two largest parties, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and Sinn Féin, along with the Alliance Party, increase their support, with falls in support for the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) and the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP).
Michelle O'Neill is an Irish politician who has been First Minister of Northern Ireland since February 2024 and Vice President of Sinn Féin since 2018. She has also been the MLA for Mid Ulster in the Northern Ireland Assembly since 2007. O'Neill was previously deputy First Minister of Northern Ireland from 2020 to 2022. O'Neill served on the Dungannon and South Tyrone Borough Council from 2005 to 2011.
The first minister and deputy first minister of Northern Ireland are the joint heads of government of Northern Ireland, leading the Northern Ireland Executive and with overall responsibility for the running of the Executive Office. Despite the titles of the two offices, the two positions have the same governmental power, resulting in a duumvirate; the deputy first minister is not subordinate to the first minister. Created under the terms of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, both were initially nominated and appointed by members of the Northern Ireland Assembly on a joint ticket by a cross-community vote, under consociational principles. That process was changed following the 2006 St Andrews Agreement, such that the first minister now is nominated by the largest party overall, and the deputy first minister is nominated by the largest party from the next largest community block.
The 2011 Northern Ireland Assembly election took place on Thursday, 5 May, following the dissolution of the Northern Ireland Assembly at midnight on 24 March 2011. It was the fourth election to take place since the devolved assembly was established in 1998.
The 2017 Northern Ireland Assembly election was held on Thursday, 2 March 2017. The election was held to elect members (MLAs) following the resignation of deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness in protest over the Renewable Heat Incentive scandal. McGuinness' position was not filled, and thus by law his resignation triggered an election.
The Renewable Heat Incentive scandal, also referred to as RHIgate and the Cash for Ash scandal, is a political scandal in Northern Ireland that centres on a failed renewable energy incentive scheme that has been reported to potentially cost the public purse almost £500 million. The plan, initiated in 2012, was overseen by Arlene Foster of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), the then-Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Investment. Foster failed to introduce proper cost controls, allowing the plan to spiral out of control. The scheme worked by paying applicants to use renewable energy. However, the rate paid was more than the cost of the fuel, and thus many applicants were making profits simply by heating their properties.
The 2022 Northern Ireland Assembly election was held on 5 May 2022. It elected 90 members to the Northern Ireland Assembly. It was the seventh assembly election since the establishment of the assembly in 1998. The election was held three months after the Northern Ireland Executive collapsed due to the resignation of the First Minister, Paul Givan of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), in protest against the Northern Ireland Protocol.
The Executive of the 6th Northern Ireland Assembly was appointed on 11 January 2020, after the confirmation of Arlene Foster and Michelle O'Neill as First and deputy First Minister.
Local elections were held in Northern Ireland on Thursday 2 May 2019. The last elections were held in 2014. 819 candidates contested 462 seats across Northern Ireland's 11 local government districts. 1,305,384 people aged 18 and over were eligible to vote, and 52.7% of the electorate turned out.
The Identity and Language Act 2022 is an act of Parliament in the United Kingdom providing "official recognition of the status of the Irish language" in Northern Ireland, with Ulster Scots being an officially recognised minority language.
New Decade, New Approach (NDNA) is a 9 January 2020 agreement which restored the government of the Northern Ireland Executive after a three-year hiatus triggered by the Renewable Heat Incentive scandal. It was negotiated by Secretary of State for Northern Ireland Julian Smith and Irish Tánaiste Simon Coveney.
The 6th Executive of Northern Ireland was appointed on 3 February 2024, following the 2022 election to the seventh Northern Ireland Assembly held on 5 May 2022 and the protracted negotiations leading up to the 2024 Northern Ireland Executive formation. The newly elected assembly met for the first time on 13 May 2022. It is led by Michelle O'Neill of Sinn Féin as First Minister and Emma Little-Pengelly of the DUP as deputy First Minister.
Local elections were held in Northern Ireland on 18 May 2023. The elections were delayed by two weeks to avoid overlapping with the coronation of King Charles III. Following the elections, Sinn Féin became the largest party in local government for the first time. It also marked the first time that nationalist parties had garnered a greater share of the vote than unionist parties, however, despite this, there were more unionist councillors elected than nationalists.
The 2024 Northern Ireland Executive formation followed on from the 2022 Northern Ireland Assembly election, but was delayed to February 2024. The 22 months delay in the restoration of the Northern Ireland Executive resulted from a boycott of the process by the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). Eventually it resulted in the formation of the Executive of the 7th Northern Ireland Assembly, led by Michelle O'Neill of Sinn Féin as First Minister and Emma Little-Pengelly of the DUP as deputy First Minister.