1998 Northern Ireland Assembly election

1998 Northern Ireland Assembly election

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All 108 seats to the Northern Ireland Assembly
Turnout	69.8%
First party Second party Third party   Leader David Trimble John Hume Ian Paisley Party Ulster Unionist SDLP DUP Leader since 8 September 1995 28 November 1979 30 September 1971 Leader's seat Upper Bann Foyle North Antrim Last election 30 seats, 24.2% 21 seats, 21.4% 24 seats, 18.8% Seats won 28 24 20 Seat change 2 3 4 Popular vote 172,225 177,963 145,917 Percentage 21.3% 22.0% 18.5% Swing 2.9% 0.6% 0.3%   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   UKUP Leader Gerry Adams John Alderdice Robert McCartney Party Sinn Féin Alliance UK Unionist Leader since 13 November 1983 3 October 1987 1995 Leader's seat Belfast West Belfast East North Down Last election 17 seats, 15.5% 7 seats, 6.5% 3 seats, 3.7% Seats won 18 6 5 Seat change 1 1 2 Popular vote 142,858 52,636 36,541 Percentage 16.7% 5.6% 4.5% Swing 1.2% 0.9% 0.8%   Seventh party Eighth party   PUP NIWC Leader Hugh Smyth Monica McWilliams & Pearl Sagar Party PUP NI Women's Coalition Leader since 1979 1996 Leader's seat Ran in Belfast West (lost) Belfast South (McWilliams) Ran in Belfast East (lost) (Sagar) Last election 2 seats, 3.5% 2 seats, 1.0% Seats won 2 2 Seat change Popular vote 20,634 13,019 Percentage 2.6% 1.6% Swing 0.9% 0.6%
Seats won by each party and combined first preference vote share of the largest party. Break down of each party and sectarian camp's seats in constituencies Election results. Voters elect 6 assembly members from the 18 constituencies.
First Minister before election New position First Minister after election David Trimble Ulster Unionist

The 1998 Northern Ireland Assembly election took place on Thursday, 25 June 1998. This was the first election to the new devolved Northern Ireland Assembly. Six members from each of Northern Ireland's eighteen Westminster Parliamentary constituencies were elected by single transferable vote, giving a total of 108 Members of the Legislative Assembly (MLAs).

Background and campaign

The election was the culmination of the years long Peace Process that had resulted in the Good Friday Agreement on 10th of April 1998. The Agreement had been the result of multi-party talks in Northern Ireland, as well as talks with the British and Irish governments. The Agreement would need to be endorsed by referendums in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland that were scheduled for the 22nd of May. ^[1]

Of the parties who'd won election in 1996 to the Northern Ireland Forum only the DUP and UK Unionist Party opposed the Agreement, encouraging a No vote in the referendum. Whilst the UUP officially supported the Agreement, there was significant dissent within its ranks. Several high profile members, including six of their ten MPs, opposed the Agreement. On 18th of April the ruling council of the UUP backed the Agreement with 540 delegates in favour and 120 against.

On 24 April the loyalist paramilitary organisation, the Ulster Defence Association announced that it was in support of the Agreement. However on the 1st of May the Orange Order came out in opposition. ^[2]

At the Sinn Féin Ard Fheis on the 10th of May the party voted to end its 77 year policy of abstentionism from NI government institutions. However, it would continue to refuse to take any seats won at Westminster elections. ^[3]

Two major issues during both the referendum and subsequent Assembly campaign was that of decommissioning and release of paramilitary prisoners. This was cemented when the IRA released a statement saying that it would not agree to decommissioning its weapons. ^[4] A poll released on the 15th of May showed that a majority of those planning on voting No were going to do so due to the release of prisoners. On the same day the Ulster Volunteer Force announced a ceasefire in opposition to the Agreement, encouraging a No vote in the referendum. ^[5]

On the 19th of May, just three days before the referendum was to be held, U2 held a concert at Belfast's Waterfront Hall in support of the Yes campaign. John Hume, the SDLP leader, and David Trimble, the UUP leader, attended and appeared on stage. Bono held their hands aloft in an image that became iconic of the campaign. The concert was the first time the two men had campaigned together and is credited with giving the Yes campaign a crucial boost in the final days of the campaign. ^[6]

In the end the Agreement was endorsed by the people of Northern Ireland with 71.1% voting in favour on a turnout of 81.1%. ^[7]

Compared to the referendum campaign, the Assembly campaign was much more subdued. However, the issue of decommissioning continued to be a major issue. Following a meeting with the Northern Ireland Secretary, Mo Mowlam, Vice President of Sinn Fein, Martin McGuinness, warned against "falling into the trap of trying to make decommissioning the most important item on the agenda".

On the 4th of June a Northern Ireland Office memo on the upcoming Independent Commission on Policing was leaked, resulting in controversy as it contained none of the people nominated by the Irish government on the behalf of nationalists.

Results

The SDLP topped the polls, receiving about 22 percent of the votes. It won a plurality of the first preference votes. This was the first time a nationalist party had ever achieved this in Northern Ireland's history. ^[8] It was a feat that would not be repeated until the 2022 Assembly elections when Sinn Féin also topped the poll.

Despite the use of STV, a form of proportional representation, the UUP won four more seats than the SDLP. This has been attributed ^[9] to several reasons, including:

• Slightly different turnouts across the province, with the result that in the more staunchly unionist east fewer votes were required to elect an MLA than in the SDLP's heartlands in the west.
• The Ulster Unionists proved better at "vote balancing" whereby in the rounds of transfers their candidates were less likely to be eliminated earlier on.
• The Ulster Unionists proved better at attracting transfers from other parties (and due to the vote balancing mentioned above, were more likely to be in a position to benefit from this).

Despite a nationalist party topping the poll with a plurality of votes, unionist parties won a majority of both seats and votes. Of the 108 seats available, 58 designated as unionist, 42 as nationalist and 8 as other. In terms of first preference votes unionist candidates won 50.6% of the vote, compared to nationalists 39.8% and others 8.9% of the vote. ^{[Note 1]}

Within unionism

Whilst the UUP retained its position as the largest party of unionism, its vote share of just 21.25% was the lowest it had ever achieved. ^[10] The DUP managed to finish just 3.24% behind the UUP, which was considered a significant success. Of the smaller unionist parties the UK Unionist Party managed to win five seats, and the Progressive Unionist Party two seats. This was an improvement for the UKU compared to the 1995 Northern Ireland Forum election, whilst the PUP retained its two seats. The Ulster Democratic Party however failed to win any seats in the Assembly and the party dissolved before the 2003 Assembly election. In addition to the four unionist parties elected, three independent unionists were also elected to the assembly.

Within nationalism

The election was considered a success for the SDLP, which not only secured the largest vote share, but also increased its number of seats compared to the 1996 Forum elections. Sinn Féin also had a successful election by increasing its share of both votes and seats. Unlike unionism, where the vote was split between several different parties, the nationalist vote was split between just two and there were no significant independent nationalist campaigns.

Other parties

The Alliance Party had a disappointing night with their vote share remaining unchanged and the net loss of one seat. The election continued the pattern of the Alliance Party winning seats only in heavily unionist areas. The NI Women's Coalition had a successful night, winning two seats. This would be the only Assembly election in which the party would win any seats. ^[11]

Results summary

Result by constituencies

The result was (first preference votes only):

Party		Votes	%	+/–	Seats	+/–
	Social Democratic and Labour Party	177,963	21.96	+0.6	24	+3
	Ulster Unionist Party	172,225	21.25	-2.9	28	-2
	Democratic Unionist Party	145,917	18.01	-0.8	20	-4
	Sinn Féin	142,858	17.63	+2.2	18	+1
	Alliance Party of Northern Ireland	52,636	6.50	0.0	6	-1
	UK Unionist Party	36,541	4.51	+0.8	5	+2
	Independent Unionist	24,339	3.00	N/A	3	+3
	Progressive Unionist Party	20,634	2.55	-1.0	2	–
	Northern Ireland Women's Coalition	13,019	1.61	+0.6	2	–
	Ulster Democratic Party	8,651	1.07	-1.1	–	-2
	Labour Party of Northern Ireland	2,729	0.34	New	–	–
	Workers' Party (Ireland)	1,989	0.25	-0.3	–	–
	Northern Ireland Conservatives	1,835	0.23	-0.3	–	–
	Ulster Independence Movement	1,227	0.15	-0.4	–	–
	Natural Law Party	832	0.10	0.0	–	–
	Socialist Party	789	0.10	New	–	–
	Green Party of Northern Ireland	710	0.09	-0.4	–	–
	Independent	5,392	0.67	N/A	–	–
Total		810,286	100.00	–	108	–
Valid votes		810,286	98.39
Invalid/blank votes		13,248	1.61
Total votes		823,534	100.00
Registered voters/turnout		1,178,556	69.88

The seat and vote change in the table are in comparison to the 1996 Northern Ireland Forum elections.

^{[Note 1]} Only the independent unionist candidates who got elected are shown in the vote totals

Distribution of seats by constituency

Party affiliation of the six Assembly members returned by each constituency. The first column indicates the party of the Member of the House of Commons (MP) returned by the corresponding parliamentary constituency in the 1997 United Kingdom general election under the first-past-the-post voting method. A number highlighted in bold indicates the party won the highest number of seats in that constituency.

Party of MP, 1997		Constituency	Northern Ireland Assembly seats
			Total
				APNI	DUP	NI WC	PUP	SDLP	Sinn Féin	UKU	UUP	Ind.
	DUP	North Antrim	6	-	3	-	-	1	-	-	2	-
	UUP	East Antrim	6	1	1	-	-	1	-	1	2	-
	UUP	South Antrim	6	1	1	-	-	1	-	1	2	-
	UUP	Belfast North	6	-	1	-	1	1	1	-	1	1
	Sinn Féin	Belfast West	6	-	-	-	-	2	4	-	-	-
	UUP	Belfast South	6	-	1	1	-	2	-	-	2	-
	DUP	Belfast East	6	1	2	-	1	-	-	-	2	-
	UK Unionist	North Down	6	1	-	1	-	-	-	1	3	-
	UUP	Strangford	6	1	2	-	-	-	-	1	2	-
	UUP	Lagan Valley	6	1	1	-	-	1	-	1	2	-
	UUP	Upper Bann	6	-	1	-	-	1	1	-	2	1
	SDLP	South Down	6	-	1	-	-	3	1	-	1	-
	SDLP	Newry and Armagh	6	-	1	-	-	2	2	-	1	-
	UUP	Fermanagh & South Tyrone	6	-	1	-	-	1	2	-	2	-
	UUP	West Tyrone	6	-	1	-	-	2	2	-	1	-
	Sinn Féin	Mid Ulster	6	-	1	-	-	1	3	-	1	-
	SDLP	Foyle	6	-	1	-	-	3	2	-	-	-
	UUP	East Londonderry	6	-	1	-	-	2	-	-	2	1
Total			108	6	20	2	2	24	18	5	28	3

See also

• 1st Northern Ireland Assembly

References

1. Melaugh, Martin. "The Irish Peace Process - Chronology of Key Events (April 1998 - December 1999)". CAIN Archive. Retrieved 30 May 2023.
2. "Orange Order reaffirms stance on agreement". Irish Times. 13 May 1998. Retrieved 30 May 2023.
3. "The Struggle Continues". An Phoblacht (Republican News). 14 May 1998. Retrieved 30 May 2023.
4. "IRA Statement on Decommissioning". An Phoblacht (Republican News). 30 April 1998. Retrieved 30 May 2023.
5. "LVF Ceasefire Statement". CAIN Archive. 15 May 1998. Retrieved 30 May 2023.
6. Bailie, Stuart (5 August 2020). "John Hume, Bono, Trimble, Ash and the 'Yes' Gig, 1998" . Retrieved 30 May 2023.
7. "The 1998 Referendums" . Retrieved 30 May 2023.
8. Melaugh, Martin; McKenna, Fionnuala. "Assembly Election (NI) Thursday 25 June 1998". CAIN Archive. Ulster University. Retrieved 30 May 2023.
9. Jim, Riley (2 July 2000). "NI Assembly election calculations". ARK. Retrieved 30 May 2023.
10. "Northern Ireland Assembly Elections 1998". ARK. Retrieved 30 May 2023.
11. O'Rourke, Catherine. "Northern Ireland Women's Coalition". Encyclopedia Britannica. Retrieved 30 May 2023.
12. "Northern Ireland Assembly Elections 1998". Archived from the original on 14 May 2011. Retrieved 12 December 2017.

Manifestos

• It's Time For Tomorrow... Together, Alliance
• Your Best Guarantee for the Future of Northern Ireland, Democratic Unionist Party
• A Fresh Future, Northern Ireland Conservatives
• A New Voice For New Times, Northern Ireland Women's Coalition
• For Real Change – Building a New Ireland, Sinn Féin
• Now, Say Yes To A Future Together, Social Democratic and Labour Party
• Together Within the Union, Ulster Unionist Party
• Manifesto of The Workers' Party, Workers' Party