2024 United Kingdom general election in Northern Ireland

Last updated

2024 United Kingdom general election
(Northern Ireland)
  2019 4 July 2024 (2024-07-04)

All 18 Northern Ireland seats to the House of Commons
 First partySecond partyThird party
 
Official portrait of Gavin Robinson MP crop 2.jpg
President Joe Biden greets U.S. Special Envoy to Northern Ireland for Economic Affairs Joseph Kennedy III, Northern Ireland First Minister Michelle O'Neill and Deputy First Minister Emma Little-Pengelly on March 17, 2024 (cropped).jpg
Naomi Long MLA.jpg
Leader Gavin Robinson Michelle O'Neill [lower-alpha 1] Naomi Long
Party DUP Sinn Féin Alliance
Leader since29 March 202423 January 2017 [lower-alpha 2] 26 October 2016
Leader's seat Belfast East None [lower-alpha 3] Standing in Belfast East [lower-alpha 4]
Last election30.6%, 8 MPs22.8%, 7 MPs16.8%, 1 MP

 Fourth partyFifth partySixth party
 
Colum Eastwood SDLP Conference 2023.jpg
Doug Beattie.png
JimAllister (cropped).jpg
Leader Colum Eastwood Doug Beattie Jim Allister
Party SDLP UUP TUV
Alliance Reform UK–TUV
Leader since14 November 201517 May 20217 December 2007
Leader's seat Foyle None [lower-alpha 5] Standing in North Antrim [lower-alpha 6]
Last election14.9%, 2 MPs11.7%, 0 MPsDidn't stand

NorthernIreland2023Constituencies.svg

The 2024 general election in Northern Ireland is scheduled to be held on 4 July 2024, with all 18 Northern Irish seats in the House of Commons to be contested. The general election will occur after the recently completed constituency boundaries review.

Contents

Background

Electoral system

MPs will be elected in 18 single-member constituencies by first-past-the-post.

Date of the election

On 22 May 2024, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced 4 July 2024 as the election date. [1]

Constituency boundaries

Map of the 18 constituencies to be used. NI Parliamentary Constituencies 2024.svg
Map of the 18 constituencies to be used.

In June 2023, it was published that The Boundary Commission for Northern Ireland had made final recommendations for the new boundaries for Northern Ireland's 18 parliamentary constituencies. The report was submitted to the speaker of the UK House of Commons and the UK Government was required to submit a draft of an Order in Council to activate the new boundaries within four months. [2]

Changes include:

Ten wards were moved and as approved by MPs, the new boundaries became effective on 1 November 2023. [3] These changes were approved at a meeting of the Privy Council on 15 November [4] and came into force on 29 November. [5]

Campaign

In the run up to the election, there was speculation to the extent at which unionist electoral pacts will be active in some constituencies. [6] In July 2023, Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) leader Doug Beattie clarified that his party intends to stand candidates in 17 constituencies, but there is still speculation about whether the Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) will field candidates. [7] The TUV leader Jim Allister has said that in seats held by non-unionists where the sitting MP could potentially be ousted, it will support an “agreed single unionist candidate". [8]

In North Down, there have been calls for unionist parties to drop their own candidates and unite behind a single contender to defeat incumbent Alliance MP Stephen Farry. [9] Farry was confirmed as Alliance's candidate for North Down at the next election on 26 November 2023. [10] On 24 January 2024, the UUP selected former Iraq War veteran Tim Collins as their candidate for North Down, with the UUP leader Doug Beattie saying his party "does not do pacts". [11] Alex Easton is set to announce his Independent Unionist candidacy for the seat. [12]

In October 2023 the Alliance Party of Northern Ireland revealed that they intended to target Lagan Valley, seat of the then-leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) Jeffrey Donaldson. They unveiled their candidate as Sorcha Eastwood and will require a 7.16% swing to gain the seat from the DUP. [13]

Amongst majority nationalist constituencies, due to their strong performance in the 2022 Assembly election and the 2023 local elections, Sinn Féin look "likely to increase its number of seats at Westminster", with the possibility of gaining Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) leader Colum Eastwood's seat of Foyle. [14]

The campaign has got underway in South Belfast and North Down, with both incumbent MPs, Claire Hanna and Stephen Farry seeking re-election. North Down Ulster Unionist candidate Tim Collins has said he is "very confident" of unseating Farry. [15]

In January 2024, the Ulster Unionist Party selected their former leader and Minister of Health Robin Swann as their candidate for South Antrim [16] and announced their deputy leader, Robbie Butler, as the party's candidate for Lagan Valley. [17]

On 16 March 2024, the Traditional Unionist Voice formed an electoral pact with Reform UK, in which the two parties would stand mutually agreed candidates within Northern Ireland. [18] On 24 May they announced that they were supporting Alex Easton, the Independent Unionist candidate in North Down, and would not stand a candidate in that constituency. [19]

The leader of the Green Party Northern Ireland, Sen. Mal O'Hara, told Slugger O'Toole on 26 April 2024 that they will stand in every constituency and will not pursue any electoral pacts. [20]

On 7 May 2024, the UUP announced that 19 year-old Jay Basra, who is Punjabi-British, would be their candidate for Mid Ulster. [21] Following the announcement, Basra was the target of racial abuse on social media. The abuse was condemned by UUP leader Doug Beattie and former First Minister Arlene Foster, as well as deputy First Minister Emma Little-Pengelly. [22]

Candidates

Parties

PartiesNumber of candidates [23]
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland 18
Social Democratic and Labour Party 18
Ulster Unionist Party 17
Democratic Unionist Party 16
Sinn Féin 14
Traditional Unionist Voice 14
Green Party Northern Ireland 11
Aontú 10
Independents 9 (7 constituencies)
Conservative Party 5
People Before Profit 3
Cross-Community Labour Alternative 1
Total136

Candidates by constituency

Candidates in bold were MPs at dissolution and represented a constituency in that parliamentary term which is succeeded at least partially by the constituency they're standing for election in at this election, in some cases not for the party they were aligned with when they were originally elected, and also includes those elected at by-elections in the preceding parliament. Italics denotes incumbent MPs not contesting the election.

The list of candidates standing in Northern Ireland was published by the Electoral Office on Friday 7 June: [24]

Constituency (2024–)Constituency (2010–24) Sinn Féin DUP Alliance UUP SDLP TUV Green Aontú OthersIncumbent
Belfast East Gavin Robinson Naomi Long Ryan WarrenSéamas de FaoiteJohn RossBrian SmythRyan North (Independent) DUP Gavin Robinson
Belfast North John Finucane Phillip Brett Nuala McAllister Carl WhyteDavid Clarke Mal O'Hara Fiona Ferguson (PBP) SF John Finucane
Belfast South and Mid Down Belfast South Tracy Kelly Kate Nicholl Michael Henderson Claire Hanna Dan BoucherÁine Groogan SDLP Claire Hanna
Belfast West Paul Maskey Frank McCoubrey Eóin MillarBen SharkeyPaul DohertyAnn McClureAsh JonesGerard Herdman Gerry Carroll (PBP)
Tony Mallon (Independent)
SF Paul Maskey
East Antrim Oliver McMullan Sammy Wilson Danny Donnelly John Stewart Margaret Anne McKillopMatthew WarwickMark Bailey DUP Sammy Wilson
East Londonderry Kathleen McGurk Gregory Campbell Richard StewartGlen Miller Cara Hunter Allister KyleJen McCahonGemma BrollyClaire Scull (Conservative) DUP Gregory Campbell
Fermanagh and South Tyrone Pat Cullen Eddie RoofeDiana ArmstrongPaul BlakeCarl DuffyGerry Cullen (CCLA) SF Michelle Gildernew
Foyle Sandra Duffy Gary Middleton Rachael FergusonJanice Montgomery Colum Eastwood John BoyleShaun Harkin (PBP)
Anne McCloskey (Independent)
SDLP Colum Eastwood
Lagan Valley Jonathan Buckley Sorcha Eastwood Robbie Butler Simon LeeLorna SmythPatricia Denvir Independent (elected as DUP) Jeffrey Donaldson
Mid Ulster Cathal Mallaghan Keith Buchanan Padraic FarrellJay BasraDenise JohnstonGlenn MooreAlixandra HallidayJohn Kelly (Independent) SF Francie Molloy
Newry and Armagh Dáire HughesGareth WilsonHelena YoungSam NicholsonPete ByrneKeith RatcliffeLiam ReichenbergSamantha Rayner (Conservative) SF Mickey Brady
North Antrim Philip McGuigan Ian Paisley Jr Sian Mulholland Jackson MinfordHelen Maher Jim Allister Ráichéal Mhic NiocaillTristan Morrow (Independent) DUP Ian Paisley Jr
North Down Stephen Farry Tim Collins Déirdre VaughanBarry McKee Alex Easton (Independent)
Chris Carter (Independent)
APNI Stephen Farry
South Antrim Declan Kearney Paul Girvan John Blair Robin Swann Roisin LynchMel LucasLesley VeronicaSiobhan McErlean DUP Paul Girvan
South Down Chris Hazzard Diane Forsythe Andrew McMurray Michael O'Loan Colin McGrath Jim Wells Declan WalshRosemary McGloneHannah Westropp (Conservative) SF Chris Hazzard
Strangford Noel Sands Jim Shannon Michelle GuyRichard SmartWill PollandRon McDowellAlexandra BraidnerGareth Burns (Independent)
Garreth Falls (Independent)
Barry Hetherington (Conservative)
DUP Jim Shannon
Upper Bann Catherine Nelson Carla Lockhart Eóin Tennyson Kate EvansMalachy Quinn DUP Carla Lockhart
West Tyrone Órfhlaith Begley Tom Buchanan Stephen DonnellyMatthew Bell Daniel McCrossan Stevan PattersonLeza HoustonStephen Lynch (Conservative) SF Órfhlaith Begley

Opinion polling

Date(s)
conducted
PollsterClientSample
size
DUP Sinn Féin Alliance SDLP UUP TUV OthersLead
10–13 May2024LucidTalk [25] Belfast Telegraph 3,31620%26%15%10%13%8%
8%
2% Aontú
1% People Before Profit
1% Greens
4% Independents and Others
6
28 Jan11 Feb2024Social Market Research [26] Irish News–University of Liverpool1,20623.5%31.1%15.2%8.1%11.1%4.8%6.6
26 Oct3 Nov2023Social Market Research [27] Institute of Irish Studies1,07425%31%15%9%11%5%5%6
14 Jan – 7 Sep 2023 Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey [lower-alpha 7] ARK 1,20019%24%28%9%13%
9%
Greens on 5%
Others on 4%
4%
12 Dec2019 2019 general election 30.6%22.8%16.8%14.9%11.7%N/A3.2%7.8%

Leadership approval ratings

Michelle O'Neill

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Michelle O'Neill, the First Minister of Northern Ireland since 3 February 2024, Vice President of Sinn Féin since 10 February 2018 and Deputy First Minister of Northern Ireland from 11 January 2020 to 4 February 2022.

Date(s)
conducted
PollsterClientSample SizeGood/GreatBad/AwfulDon't knowNet approval
11–14 Aug 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph2,95043%37%20%+6%
21–24 Apr 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph3,95741%37%22%+4%
20–23 Jan 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph1,44941%40%19%+4%
4–7 Nov 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph3,35146%37%17%+9%
12–15 Aug 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph3,38440%42%18%–2%

Jeffrey Donaldson

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Jeffrey Donaldson, the leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) from 30 June 2021 to 29 March 2024.

Date(s)
conducted
PollsterClientSample SizeGood/GreatBad/AwfulDon't knowNet approval
11–14 Aug 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph2,95024%66%10%–42%
21–24 Apr 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph3,95727%65%8%–38%
20–23 Jan 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph1,44925%63%12%–38%
4–7 Nov 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph3,35129%65%6%–36%
12–15 Aug 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph3,38427%64%9%–37%

Naomi Long

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Naomi Long, the leader of the Alliance Party since 26 October 2016.

Date(s)
conducted
PollsterClientSample SizeGood/GreatBad/AwfulDon't knowNet approval
11–14 Aug 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph2,95038%39%23%–1%
21–24 Apr 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph3,95740%38%22%+2%
20–23 Jan 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph1,44937%38%25%–1%
4–7 Nov 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph3,35145%37%18%+8%
12–15 Aug 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph3,38446%37%17%+9%

Doug Beattie

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Doug Beattie, the leader of the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) since 27 May 2021.

Date(s)
conducted
PollsterClientSample SizeGood/GreatBad/AwfulDon't knowNet approval
11–14 Aug 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph2,95034%38%28%–4%
21–24 Apr 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph3,95738%33%29%+5%
20–23 Jan 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph1,44928%42%30%–14%
4–7 Nov 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph3,35137%32%31%+5%
12–15 Aug 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph3,38434%34%32%0%

Colum Eastwood

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Colum Eastwood, the leader of the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) since 14 November 2015.

Date(s)
conducted
PollsterClientSample SizeGood/GreatBad/AwfulDon't knowNet approval
11–14 Aug 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph2,95026%43%31%–17%
21–24 Apr 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph3,95732%40%28%–8%
20–23 Jan 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph1,44933%38%29%–5%
4–7 Nov 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph3,35131%39%30%–8%
12–15 Aug 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph3,38434%39%27%–5%

Jim Allister

The following polls asked about voters' opinions on Jim Allister, the leader of Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) since 7 December 2007.

Date(s)
conducted
PollsterClientSample SizeGood/GreatBad/AwfulDon't knowNet approval
11–14 Aug 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph2,95023%63%14%–40%
21–24 Apr 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph3,95727%61%12%–34%
20–23 Jan 2023 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph1,44927%57%16%–30%
4–7 Nov 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph3,35127%59%14%–32%
12–15 Aug 2022 LucidTalk Belfast Telegraph3,38431%54%15%–23%

MPs not seeking re-election

Members of Parliament not standing for re-election
MPSeatFirst electedPartyDate announced
Francie Molloy Mid Ulster 2013 Sinn Féin 13 February 2024 [29]
Mickey Brady Newry and Armagh 2015 Sinn Féin 19 February 2024 [30]
Jeffrey Donaldson Lagan Valley 1997 Independent [lower-alpha 8] 22 May 2024 [31]
Michelle Gildernew Fermanagh and South Tyrone 2001 Sinn Féin 23 May 2024 [32]

See also

Notes

  1. "Party leader in the North" and vice president of Sinn Féin. Mary Lou McDonald is the party president and leader of the opposition in the Dáil of the Republic of Ireland.
  2. As "Party leader in the North"
  3. O'Neill is an MLA for Mid Ulster.
  4. Long serves as an MLA for Belfast East. She previously represented the area at Westminster from 2010-2015.
  5. Beattie is an MLA for Upper Bann.
  6. Allister is an MLA for North Antrim.
  7. The question asked was "If there were a general election tomorrow, which political party do you think you would be most likely to support?". [28]
  8. Elected as DUP.

Related Research Articles

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">2005 United Kingdom general election in Northern Ireland</span>

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">2013 Mid Ulster by-election</span>

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">2015 United Kingdom general election in Northern Ireland</span>

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">2022 Northern Ireland Assembly election</span> Election held in Northern Ireland

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Next Northern Ireland Assembly election</span> Upcoming elections for Northern Ireland

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