Opinion polling for the 2024 United Kingdom general election

Last updated

Opinion polling for the 2024 United Kingdom general election is being carried out continually by various organisations to gauge voting intention. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules. The dates for these opinion polls range from the 2019 general election on 12 December to the present day.

Contents

The election is scheduled to be held on Thursday, 4 July 2024. [1]

Graphical summaries

Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election after 2019 (LOESS).svg
2024 UK General Election Campaign Period Polling.svg

  • Guide to tables

    Poll results are listed in the tables below in reverse chronological order. The highest percentage figure in each poll is displayed in bold, and its background is shaded in the leading party's colour. The "lead" column shows the percentage point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. When a poll result is a tie, the figures with the highest percentages are shaded and displayed in bold.

    "Green" in these tables refers to combined totals for the green parties in the United Kingdom, namely the Green Party of England and Wales, the Scottish Greens, and, for polls of the entire UK, the Green Party Northern Ireland. The three parties share a commitment to environmental policies, but are independent of one another, with each contesting elections only in its own region.

    The polling company ComRes was acquired by Savanta in July 2019. [2] It was rebranded as Savanta ComRes in November 2019 [3] and as Savanta in December 2022. [4] In August 2023, the market research company Omnisis rebranded its public polling arm as We Think. [5] In October 2023, the Norstat group acquired Panelbase. [6] None of these organisational changes entailed changes in methodology.

    National poll results

    Most national opinion polls do not cover Northern Ireland, which has different major political parties from the rest of the United Kingdom. This distinction is made in the tables below in the area column, where "GB" means Great Britain (England, Scotland and Wales), and "UK" means the entire United Kingdom. Plaid Cymru only stand candidates in Wales and the SNP only stand candidates in Scotland. The parties with the greatest numbers of votes in the 2019 general election are listed here. Other parties are listed in the "Others" column.

    2024

    Dates
    conducted    		PollsterClientAreaSample
    size    		 Con Lab Lib Dems SNP Green Reform OthersLead
    11–12 Jun PeoplePolling GB News GBTBC19%39%10%TBCTBC17%TBC20
    11–12 Jun More in Common The News Agents GB2,03725%41%10%3%5%13%TBC16
    10–12 Jun Norstat N/AGB1,01721%41%11%3%6%17%1%20
    10–11 Jun YouGov Sky News GB1,61118%38%15%2%8%17%
    2%
    Plaid Cymru on 1%
    Other on 1%
    		20
    7–11 Jun Focaldata N/AGB3,12424%42%9%3%5%15%2%18
    5–11 Jun Survation Good Morning Britain GB1,07623%41%10%3%6%12%
    4%
    Plaid Cymru on 0%
    Other on 4%
    		18
    7–10 Jun Verian N/AGB1,30520%41%11%3%8%15%3%21
    7–10 Jun Redfield & Wilton N/AGB10,00019%45%10%3%5%17%
    1%
    Plaid Cymru on 0%
    Workers Party of Britain on 0%
    Alba Party on 0%
    Other on 1%
    		26
    6–10 Jun Lord Ashcroft N/AGB4,97521%44%7%2%8%15%
    3%
    Plaid Cymru on 0%
    Other on 3%
    		22
    7–9 Jun Savanta The TelegraphUK2,21925%44%9%3%4%10%4%19
    7–9 Jun JL Partners The Rest is PoliticsGB2,00424%41%11%3%5%15%
    1%
    Plaid Cymru on 0%
    Other on 1%
    		17
    6–8 Jun Deltapoll Mail on SundayGB2,01021%46%9%4%5%12%
    1%
    Plaid Cymru on 1%
    Other on 0%
    		25
    6–7 Jun We Think N/AGB1,19820%45%10%3%5%15%
    3%
    Plaid Cymru on 1%
    Other on 2%
    		25
    5–7 Jun Opinium The ObserverGB1,47124%42%10%3%7%12%
    2%
    Plaid Cymru on 1%
    Other on 1%
    		18
    5–7 Jun Savanta The TelegraphGB2,09526%46%10%2%3%11%
    3%
    Plaid Cymru on 1%
    Other on 2%
    		20
    5–7 Jun More in Common N/AGB2,61825%46%9%3%6%11%
    1%
    Plaid Cymru on 0%
    Other on 1%
    		21
    5–6 Jun Whitestone Insight N/AGB2,00122%42%9%3%5%16%
    2%
    Plaid Cymru on 0%
    Workers Party of Britain on 1%
    SDP on 0%
    Other on 1%
    		20
    5–6 Jun YouGov N/AGB1,65019%41%11%3%7%16%
    4%
    Plaid Cymru on 1%
    Other on 3%
    		22
    5–6 Jun Techne N/AGB1,64520%44%10%2%6%15%3%24
    5–6 Jun Survation N/AGB1,05623%43%9%3%5%15%
    3%
    Plaid Cymru on 0%
    Other on 2%
    		20
    5–6 Jun Redfield & Wilton N/AGB2,00019%42%12%3%6%17%
    2%
    Plaid Cymru on 0%
    Workers Party of Britain on 1%
    Other on 1%
    		23
    3–6 Jun Focaldata N/AGB2,07725%44%9%2%5%14%2%19
    4–5 Jun Norstat N/AGB1,00522%45%10%3%5%14%
    1%
    Plaid Cymru on 0%
    Other on 1%
    		23
    4–5 Jun BMG The iGB1,53423%42%9%4%6%16%1%19
    3–4 Jun YouGov [lower-alpha 1] Sky News GB2,14419%40%10%3%7%17%
    3%
    Plaid Cymru on 1%
    Other on 2%
    		21
    31 May – 4 Jun Ipsos N/AGB1,01423%43%8%5%9%9%
    3%
    Plaid Cymru on 1%
    Other on 2%
    		20
    3 Jun Nigel Farage becomes leader of Reform UK
    1–3 Jun More in Common N/AGB2,05527%46%8%3%5%10%
    2%
    Plaid Cymru on 1%
    Other on 1%
    		19
    31 May – 3 Jun Deltapoll N/AGB1,07725%48%10%2%4%9%
    3%
    Plaid Cymru on 1%
    Other on 2%
    		23
    30 May – 3 Jun Verian N/AGB1,40523%41%12%3%8%9%
    3%
    Plaid Cymru on 1%
    UKIP on 0%
    Other on 2%
    		18
    30 May – 3 Jun Lord Ashcroft N/AGB5,20323%47%6%2%6%11%
    4%
    Plaid Cymru on 1%
    Other on 3%
    		24
    31 May – 2 Jun Savanta The TelegraphGB2,20928%42%9%3%4%9%
    2%
    Plaid Cymru on 0%
    Workers Party of Britain on 1%
    Other on 1%
    		14
    31 May – 2 Jun JL Partners The Rest is PoliticsGB2,01326%43%11%3%3%12%
    1%
    Plaid Cymru on 0%
    Other on 0%
    		17
    31 May – 2 Jun Redfield & Wilton N/AGB10,00020%46%10%2%5%14%
    2%
    Plaid Cymru on 0%
    Workers Party of Britain on 1%
    Other on 1%
    		26
    22 May – 2 Jun Survation (MRP)Best for BritainGB30,04424%43%10%3%4%11%
    3%
    Plaid Cymru on 1%
    Other on 3%
    		19
    24 May – 1 Jun YouGov (MRP)Sky NewsGB58,87525%43%11%3%7%10%2%18
    30–31 May Focaldata N/AGB2,62626%43%9%2%6%12%
    1%
    Plaid Cymru on 0%
    Other on 1% Independent on 1%
    		17
    30–31 May We Think N/AGB1,32821%46%8%3%6%13%
    2%
    Plaid Cymru on 0%
    Other on 1% Independent on 1%
    		25
    29–31 May Opinium The ObserverGB2,18425%45%8%3%6%11%2%20
    29–30 May Techne N/AGB1,63021%45%11%2%6%12%3%24
    29–30 May YouGov The TimesGB2,04021%46%8%2%6%15%
    3%
    Plaid Cymru on 1%
    Others on 2%
    		25
    29–30 May Whitestone Insight Daily Express/Daily MirrorGB2,02424%44%9%3%6%11%
    3%
    Plaid Cymru on 1%
    Workers Party of Britain on 1%
    Other on 1%
    		20
    28–29 May BMG The iGB1,50027%43%9%2%6%11%
    2%
    Plaid Cymru on 0%
    Other on 2%
    		16
    9 April – 29 May More in Common (MRP)N/AGB15,08929%43%11%3%5%8%
    1%
    Plaid Cymru on 0%
    Other on 1%
    		14
    27–29 May More in Common N/AGB2,04926%45%9%2%5%11%
    1%
    Plaid Cymru on 0%
    Other on 1%
    		19
    26–28 May YouGov Sky NewsGB2,12820%47%9%3%7%12%
    3%
    Plaid Cymru on 1%
    Others on 2%
    		27
    24–28 May Lord Ashcroft N/AGB4,82824%47%6%3%8%11%
    2%
    Plaid Cymru on 0%
    Others on 2%
    		23
    25–27 May Redfield & Wilton N/AGB12,00023%46%9%3%5%13%
    3%
    Plaid Cymru on 1%
    Workers Party of Britain on 1%
    Other on 1%
    		23
    24–27 May Survation N/AUK2,04024%47%11%3%3%8%
    4%
    Plaid Cymru on 1%
    UKIP on 0%
    Reclaim on 0%
    Other on 3%
    		23
    20–27 May FindOutNow/Electoral Calculus (MRP)Daily MailGB10,39019%46%10%3%8%12%
    3%
    Plaid Cymru on 1%
    Other on 2%
    		27
    24–26 May Savanta The TelegraphGB2,23527%44%10%3%4%8%
    5%
    Plaid Cymru on 1%
    Other on 4%
    		17
    24–25 May JL Partners The Rest is PoliticsGB2,01328%40%10%3%5%12%
    2%
    Plaid Cymru on 1%
    Other on 1%
    		12
    23–25 May Deltapoll Mail on SundayGB1,51723%45%9%3%6%10%
    3%
    Plaid Cymru on 1%
    Other on 2%
    		22
    23–24 May Opinium The ObserverGB2,05027%41%10%2%7%10%1%14
    23–24 May YouGov The TimesGB2,07222%44%9%3%6%14%
    1%
    Plaid Cymru on 0%
    Other on 1%
    		22
    23–24 May We Think N/AGB1,24222%47%8%3%6%12%2%25
    22–23 May Techne N/AGB1,64319%45%12%2%5%14%3%26
    22–23 May More in Common N/AGB2,00827%44%9%3%5%10%
    1%
    Plaid Cymru on 0%
    Other on 1%
    		17
    22 May Rishi Sunak announces that a general election will be held on 4 July 2024
    21–22 May YouGov The TimesGB2,09321%46%9%3%7%12%
    1%
    Plaid Cymru on 0%
    Other on 1%
    		25
    21–22 May Survation N/AUK1,01627%48%8%3%2%8%
    4%
    Plaid Cymru on 1%
    Reclaim on 1%
    UKIP on 0%
    Other on 3%
    		21
    3–22 May YouGov N/AGB10,10820%46%9%3%7%13%
    3%
    Plaid Cymru on 1%
    Other on 2%
    		26
    17–20 May Deltapoll N/AGB1,96823%45%10%3%5%12%
    3%
    Plaid Cymru on 1%
    UKIP on 1%
    Other on 1%
    		22
    19 May Redfield & Wilton N/AGB3,70023%45%10%2%5%12%1%22
    17–19 May Savanta The TelegraphGB2,29526%43%10%3%5%9%4%17
    17–19 May More in Common N/AGB2,30827%43%9%2%6%11%
    2%
    Plaid Cymru on 1%
    Other on 1%
    		16
    16–17 May We Think N/AGB1,06423%46%8%2%8%11%2%23
    15–17 May Opinium The ObserverGB1,45825%43%9%3%7%10%
    2%
    Plaid Cymru on 0%
    Other on 2%
    		18
    16 May PeoplePolling GB NewsGB1,47620%46%8%3%8%14%
    1%
    Plaid Cymru on 0%
    Other on 1%
    		26
    15–16 May Whitestone Insight Daily Express/Daily MirrorGB2,02424%44%8%3%6%13%
    3%
    Plaid Cymru on 0%
    Workers Party of Britain on 1%
    Other on 2%
    		20
    15–16 May YouGov The TimesGB1,03120%47%9%3%8%11%
    2%
    Plaid Cymru on 1%
    Other on 1%
    		27
    15–16 May Techne N/AGB1,64121%44%12%2%6%12%3%23
    8–14 May Ipsos N/AGB1,00820%41%11%3%11%9%
    5%
    Plaid Cymru on 1%
    Other on 4%
    		21
    10–13 May Deltapoll N/AGB1,03127%45%8%2%6%10%
    2%
    Plaid Cymru on 1%
    UKIP on 1%
    Other on 0%
    		18
    9–13 May Lord Ashcroft N/AGB5,48522%45%8%3%8%11%
    3%
    Plaid Cymru on 0%
    Other on 3%
    		23
    12 May Redfield & Wilton N/AGB3,00021%42%12%3%6%15%1%21
    10–12 May Savanta The TelegraphGB2,09025%43%12%3%4%10%4%18
    9–10 May Survation N/AUK1,05424%44%10%2%7%8%5%20
    9–10 May We Think N/AGB1,18324%47%9%2%6%10%3%23
    8–9 May Techne N/AGB1,63821%45%11%2%6%12%3%24
    7–8 May YouGov The TimesGB2,07218%48%9%3%7%13%
    3%
    Plaid Cymru on 1%
    Other on 2%
    		30
    6–8 May John Swinney is elected Leader of the Scottish National Party and First Minister of Scotland
    3–7 May Deltapoll N/AGB1,99326%43%10%3%5%10%
    2%
    Plaid Cymru on 1%
    UKIP on 1%
    Other on 0%
    		17
    5 May Redfield & Wilton N/AGB2,00021%44%9%3%5%15%1%23
    3–5 May Savanta The TelegraphGB2,26727%43%11%3%4%9%4%16
    2–5 May JL Partners The Rest is PoliticsGB2,01126%41%11%3%5%13%2%15
    2–3 May More in Common N/AGB2,13526%43%10%3%5%11%1%17
    2–3 May We Think N/AGB1,17724%44%8%2%6%13%2%20
    1–3 May Opinium The ObserverGB1,40224%40%11%3%7%12%
    3%
    Plaid Cymru on 1%
    Other on 2%
    		16
    2 May Local elections in England and Wales and the Blackpool South by-election
    1–2 May Techne N/AGB1,63322%44%10%2%6%13%3%22
    30 Apr – 1 May YouGov The TimesGB2,01018%44%10%2%8%15%
    3%
    Plaid Cymru on 1%
    Other on 2%
    		26
    26–29 Apr Deltapoll N/AGB1,57724%44%8%3%5%12%
    3%
    Plaid Cymru on 2%
    UKIP on 1%
    Other on 0%
    		20
    19–29 Apr Labour Together N/AGB9,40322%44%10%3%6%13%
    3%
    Plaid Cymru on 1%
    Other on 2%
    		22
    28 Apr Redfield & Wilton N/AGB2,00022%45%9%3%6%14%2%23
    26–28 Apr More in Common N/AGB2,05324%43%11%3%6%11%2%19
    26–28 Apr Savanta The TelegraphGB2,14426%44%10%3%3%10%4%18
    25–26 Apr We Think N/AGB1,26522%44%9%3%6%13%3%22
    24–25 Apr Techne N/AGB1,64223%44%9%3%6%11%3%21
    23–25 Apr Survation N/AUK2,03626%44%9%3%4%10%5%18
    23–24 Apr YouGov The TimesGB2,10020%45%9%3%7%13%
    3%
    Plaid Cymru on 1%
    Other on 2%
    		25
    22–23 Apr BMG The iGB1,50025%41%9%3%6%14%1%16
    19–22 Apr Deltapoll N/AGB1,52527%43%9%3%5%12%
    3%
    Plaid Cymru on 1%
    UKIP on 0%
    Other on 0%
    		16
    21 Apr Redfield & Wilton N/AGB2,00020%43%12%3%6%14%1%23
    19–21 Apr Savanta The TelegraphGB2,33227%43%9%2%4%10%4%16
    18–19 Apr We Think N/AGB1,26626%43%9%2%7%11%2%17
    17–19 Apr Opinium The ObserverGB1,43125%41%10%2%7%13%
    3%
    Plaid Cymru on 2%
    Other on 1%
    		16
    17–18 Apr Survation N/AUK1,01026%44%11%3%4%8%4%18
    17–18 Apr Techne N/AGB1,64022%45%9%3%5%13%3%23
    16–17 Apr YouGov The TimesGB2,04821%44%8%3%8%14%
    3%
    Plaid Cymru on 1%
    Other on 2%
    		23
    12–15 Apr Deltapoll N/AGB2,07225%45%9%3%5%11%4%20
    11–15 Apr Lord Ashcroft N/AGB5,41023%44%6%—8%11%—21
    3–15 Apr Ipsos N/AGB1,07219%44%9%3%9%13%6%25
    14 Apr Redfield & Wilton N/AGB2,00022%44%9%3%6%15%1%22
    12–14 Apr Savanta The TelegraphGB2,22125%43%10%3%4%9%4%18
    11–12 Apr We Think N/AGB1,27124%44%9%2%6%11%1%20
    10–11 Apr Techne N/AGB1,63023%44%10%3%5%12%3%21
    10–11 Apr YouGov The TimesGB2,04419%45%8%3%7%15%
    2%
    Plaid Cymru on 0%
    Other on 2%
    		26
    7 Apr Redfield & Wilton N/AGB2,00021%44%10%2%6%15%1%23
    5–7 Apr Savanta The TelegraphGB2,21027%42%10%3%4%10%4%15
    4–7 Apr JL Partners The Rest is PoliticsGB2,01124%42%10%4%5%13%2%18
    4–5 Apr We Think N/AGB1,28024%45%10%2%5%13%2%21
    3–5 Apr Opinium The ObserverGB1,31825%41%10%3%8%11%
    2%
    Plaid Cymru on 1%
    Other on 1%
    		16
    4 Apr PeoplePolling GB NewsGB1,80919%45%9%4%8%14%1%26
    3–4 Apr Techne N/AGB1,63822%45%9%3%5%13%3%23
    2–3 Apr BMG The iGB1,53025%43%8%3%6%14%1%18
    2–3 Apr YouGov The TimesGB2,00420%43%8%3%8%16%1%23
    31 Mar Redfield & Wilton N/AGB2,00022%46%10%3%5%14%2%24
    27–28 Mar Techne N/AGB1,64123%44%10%3%5%12%3%21
    27–28 Mar We Think N/AGB1,29525%44%10%3%5%10%3%19
    26–27 Mar YouGov The TimesGB2,06121%40%10%3%8%16%
    3%
    Plaid Cymru on 2%
    Other on 1%
    		19
    25–27 Mar Savanta The SunUK3,30224%45%10%3%3%12%4%21
    7–27 Mar YouGov (MRP) [lower-alpha 2] The TimesGB18,76124%41%12%—7%12%1%17
    23–24 Mar More in Common N/AGB1,96627%42%10%3%5%11%
    2%
    Plaid Cymru on 1%
    Other on 1%
    		15
    22–25 Mar Deltapoll N/AGB2,07226%44%9%3%6%11%2%18
    24 Mar Redfield & Wilton N/AGB2,00022%42%12%2%6%14%2%20
    22–24 Mar Savanta The TelegraphUK2,21624%44%10%3%4%11%4%20
    20–22 Mar Opinium The ObserverUK1,87425%41%10%3%8%11%2%16
    21–22 Mar We Think N/AGB1,27024%47%10%2%6%11%2%23
    8–22 Mar Survation (MRP)Best for BritainUK15,02926%45%10%3%4%9%3%19
    20–21 Mar Techne N/AGB1,63222%43%10%3%6%13%3%21
    19–20 Mar More in Common N/AGB2,02725%43%11%3%5%11%
    2%
    Plaid Cymru on 1%
    Other on 1%
    		18
    19–20 Mar YouGov The TimesGB2,04719%44%9%3%8%15%
    2%
    Plaid Cymru on 1%
    Other on 1%
    		25
    15–18 Mar Deltapoll N/AGB2,07223%46%9%2%5%12%3%23
    17 Mar Redfield & Wilton N/AGB2,00021%47%8%3%6%14%1%26
    15–17 Mar Savanta The TelegraphUK2,13326%44%9%3%4%11%4%18
    14–15 Mar Labour Together N/AGB1,27024%42%10%3%7%—13%18
    14–15 Mar We Think N/AGB1,27025%43%10%2%6%12%2%18
    13–14 Mar Techne N/AGB1,62422%44%11%3%5%12%3%22
    11–14 Mar Survation N/AUK1,04326%45%11%2%3%8%5%19
    12–13 Mar YouGov The TimesGB2,04720%44%9%3%7%14%
    3%
    Plaid Cymru on 1%
    Other on 2%
    		24
    8–11 Mar More in Common N/AGB2,02727%42%10%3%6%10%
    2%
    Plaid Cymru on 1%
    Other on 1%
    		15
    8–11 Mar Deltapoll N/AGB1,50227%44%10%2%4%11%2%17
    7–11 Mar Lord Ashcroft [lower-alpha 3] N/AGB5,29923%45%6%3%8%11%5%22
    10 Mar Redfield & Wilton N/AGB2,00024%42%12%2%5%14%1%18
    8–10 Mar Savanta N/AGB2,03225%43%11%3%4%9%4%18
    7–8 Mar We Think N/AGB1,21624%43%9%3%6%13%2%19
    6–8 Mar Opinium The ObserverUK2,05425%41%10%3%7%11%4%16
    7 Mar PeoplePolling GB NewsGB1,73418%46%10%4%7%13%
    2%
    Plaid Cymru on 0%
    Other on 2%
    		28
    6–7 Mar BMG The iGB1,54125%41%10%3%6%13%1%16
    6–7 Mar YouGov The TimesGB2,05320%47%9%3%7%13%
    2%
    Plaid Cymru on 1%
    Other on 1%
    		27
    6–7 Mar Techne N/AUK1,64023%44%11%3%6%11%2%21
    1–4 Mar Deltapoll N/AGB1,50027%41%9%3%6%12%3%14
    3 Mar Redfield & Wilton N/AGB2,00023%43%10%3%6%13%2%20
    1–3 Mar Savanta N/AGB2,24527%44%10%3%4%8%4%17
    29 Feb – 1 Mar We Think N/AGB1,24023%47%9%3%5%10%3%24
    28 Feb – 1 Mar Opinium N/AUK2,05025%40%10%3%7%12%3%15
    29 Feb Rochdale by-election
    28–29 Feb YouGov The TimesGB2,10020%46%7%3%7%14%
    2%
    Plaid Cymru on 1%
    Other on 1%
    		26
    28–29 Feb Techne N/AUK1,63223%44%10%3%7%10%3%21
    21–28 Feb Ipsos Evening StandardGB1,00420%47%9%4%8%8%2%27
    23–27 Feb More in Common N/AGB2,07528%43%10%3%5%9%1%15
    23–26 Feb Deltapoll N/AGB1,49023%44%11%3%5%10%3%21
    25 Feb Redfield & Wilton N/AGB2,00023%43%10%3%8%12%2%20
    23–25 Feb Savanta N/AGB2,09726%44%10%3%4%10%4%18
    21–23 Feb Opinium The ObserverUK2,07927%42%10%3%7%10%1%15
    22–23 Feb We Think N/AGB1,24325%44%9%3%6%10%2%19
    21–22 Feb Techne N/AUK1,63724%44%10%3%6%10%3%20
    20–21 Feb YouGov The TimesGB2,03520%46%9%4%7%13%
    2%
    Plaid Cymru on 1%
    Other on 1%
    		26
    16–19 Feb Deltapoll N/AGB1,51927%48%8%3%6%7%2%21
    18 Feb Redfield & Wilton N/AGB2,00023%46%9%3%6%11%1%23
    16–18 Feb Savanta N/AUK2,11828%42%10%3%4%8%5%14
    15–16 Feb We Think N/AGB1,24626%46%9%2%6%8%2%20
    14–16 Feb Opinium The ObserverUK2,00227%43%10%3%7%9%2%16
    15 Feb Kingswood by-election and Wellingborough by-election
    14–15 Feb Techne N/AUK1,62823%42%11%3%7%11%3%19
    14–15 Feb YouGov The TimesGB2,03024%44%9%3%8%11%
    1%
    Plaid Cymru on 0%
    Other on 1%
    		20
    13–15 Feb Survation N/AUK1,02029%44%9%3%3%7%4%15
    9–12 Feb YouGov WPI StrategyGB4,01422%45%9%3%7%12%2%23
    8–12 Feb Deltapoll N/AGB1,97727%45%8%3%4%10%2%18
    8–12 Feb Lord Ashcroft [lower-alpha 3] N/AGB5,04627%43%7%3%8%10%3%16
    24 Jan – 12 Feb FindOutNow/Electoral Calculus (MRP)The MirrorGB18,15122%42%11%4%7%10%4%20
    11 Feb Redfield & Wilton N/AGB2,00021%46%11%3%5%12%2%25
    9–11 Feb Savanta N/AUK2,22429%41%11%3%3%8%4%12
    7–11 Feb More in Common N/AGB2,05029%40%11%3%6%10%1%11
    8–9 Feb We Think N/AGB1,17126%42%11%3%6%10%2%16
    6–9 Feb Opinium The ObserverUK2,05025%43%11%2%7%10%3%18
    7–8 Feb Techne N/AUK1,63924%44%10%3%6%10%3%20
    7–8 Feb YouGov The TimesGB2,02921%46%9%3%7%12%
    1%
    Plaid Cymru on 0%
    Other on 1%
    		25
    23 Jan – 7 Feb Whitestone Insight Lady McAlpineGB13,53420%42%10%3%8%13%
    3%
    Plaid Cymru on 1%
    Other on 2%
    		22
    3–5 Feb Redfield & Wilton N/AGB5,00023%44%11%3%5%12%1%21
    2–5 Feb Deltapoll N/AGB2,00427%43%10%3%5%9%3%16
    4 Feb Redfield & Wilton N/AGB2,00024%45%9%3%4%12%
    2%
    Plaid Cymru on 0%
    Other on 2%
    		21
    1–2 Feb We Think N/AGB1,28323%45%9%3%9%11%2%22
    31 Jan – 1 Feb Techne N/AUK1,63423%45%10%3%6%10%3%22
    30–31 Jan BMG The iGB1,50529%44%11%2%6%8%1%15
    30–31 Jan YouGov The TimesGB2,00823%44%9%3%6%12%
    3%
    Plaid Cymru on 1%
    Other on 2%
    		21
    30–31 Jan Survation N/AUK81027%44%11%4%3%7%5%17
    26–31 Jan More in Common N/AGB3,11329%43%10%3%6%8%1%14
    29 Jan Redfield & Wilton N/AGB2,00022%45%11%3%6%12%
    1%
    Plaid Cymru on 0%
    Other on 1%
    		23
    26–29 Jan Deltapoll N/AGB2,06429%43%10%2%6%9%
    2%
    Plaid Cymru on 0%
    UKIP on 1%
    		14
    26–28 Jan Savanta N/AUK2,27927%46%10%2%3%9%4%19
    26 Jan We Think N/AGB1,26423%47%9%2%6%12%2%24
    23–26 Jan Opinium The ObserverUK2,06027%42%10%3%6%10%1%15
    25 Jan PeoplePolling GB NewsGB1,64820%45%10%4%9%12%1%25
    24–25 Jan Techne N/AUK1,64124%44%10%3%7%9%3%20
    23–24 Jan YouGov The TimesGB2,00820%47%8%4%6%13%
    2%
    Plaid Cymru on 1%
    Other on 1%
    		27
    17–23 Jan Ipsos Evening StandardGB1,00327%49%7%4%7%4%1%22
    19–22 Jan Deltapoll N/AGB2,17628%45%9%3%5%8%
    1%
    Plaid Cymru on 0%
    UKIP on 1%
    		17
    21 Jan Redfield & Wilton N/AGB2,00022%45%11%2%6%12%
    2%
    Plaid Cymru on 1%
    Other on 1%
    		23
    19–21 Jan Savanta N/AUK2,01729%43%10%3%4%8%4%14
    18–19 Jan We Think N/AGB1,16323%48%9%3%5%10%2%25
    17–18 Jan Techne N/AUK1,64025%43%11%3%6%9%3%18
    16–17 Jan YouGov The TimesGB2,09220%47%8%3%7%12%2%27
    12–15 Jan Deltapoll N/AGB2,13628%44%10%3%6%7%
    2%
    Plaid Cymru on 0%
    UKIP on 1%
    Other on 1%
    		16
    11–15 Jan Lord Ashcroft [lower-alpha 3] N/AGB5,14927%44%6%3%6%10%
    3%
    Plaid Cymru on 1%
    Other on 2%
    		17
    14 Jan Redfield & Wilton N/AGB2,00025%44%10%3%5%11%2%19
    12–14 Jan Savanta N/AUK2,14827%44%11%3%4%7%4%17
    11–12 Jan We Think N/AGB1,16123%45%11%3%5%11%2%22
    10–12 Jan Opinium The ObserverUK2,05027%41%11%4%6%10%2%14
    10–11 Jan Techne N/AUK1,63324%44%10%3%6%10%3%20
    10–11 Jan YouGov The TimesGB2,05722%45%9%3%8%10%2%23
    9–11 Jan More in Common Times RadioGB2,05627%42%10%3%8%9%0%15
    7 Jan Redfield & Wilton N/AGB2,00027%43%10%3%5%11%2%16
    5–7 Jan Savanta N/AUK2,26826%45%10%3%5%8%4%19
    4–5 Jan We Think N/AGB1,22625%47%9%2%5%10%2%22
    12 Dec – 4 Jan YouGov (MRP) [lower-alpha 2] Conservative Britain Alliance [8] GB14,11026%39.5%12.5%3%7.5%9%2.5%13.5
    2–3 Jan YouGov The TimesGB2,01622%46%10%3%7%9%2%24

    2023

    2022

    2021

    2020

    Seat predictions

    Most polls are reported in terms of the overall popular vote share, and the pollsters do not typically project how these shares would equate to numbers of seats in the House of Commons. Other organisations including Electoral Calculus make rolling projections based on an aggregate of publicly available polls and provide a methodology whereby vote share numbers can be translated to a prediction of seat numbers.

    Tabulated below are the outputs from large polls which have been carried out to run multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP) models, which yield predictions for each constituency. [61]

    In the 650-seat House of Commons, 326 seats are needed for a parliamentary majority. Negative values in the rightmost column below indicate that the party with the most seats would not have a majority.

    Dates
    conducted    		PollsterClientSample
    size    		Area Con Lab SNP Lib Dems Plaid Cymru Green Reform OthersMajority
    22 May – 2 Jun 2024 Survation (MRP)Best For Britain30,044GB7148726432030Lab 324
    24 May – 1 Jun 2024 YouGov (MRP) Sky News 58,875GB14042217482200Lab 194
    9 Apr – 29 May 2024 More in Common (MRP)N/A15,000GB18038235303100Lab 114
    20–27 May 2024 Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus (MRP - with tactical voting) Daily Mail/GBNews 10,390GB6647626593200Lab 302
    Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus (MRP - without tactical voting)7249322394200Lab 336
    7–27 Mar 2024 YouGov (MRP)18,761GB15540319494100Lab 156
    8–22 Mar 2024 Survation (MRP)Best For Britain15,029GB9846841222000Lab 286
    24 Jan – 12 Feb 2024 Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus (MRP)The Mirror18,151GB8045240534201Lab 254
    12 Dec – 4 Jan 2024 YouGov (MRP)Conservative Britain Alliance [8] 14,110GB16938525483100Lab 120
    18 Aug – 1 Sep 2023 Survation (MRP)Greenpeace20,205GB14242636252123Lab 202
    29–31 Aug 2023 Stonehaven (MRP)2,000GB1963722536–105Lab 90
    31 Jul – 4 Aug 2023 Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus Channel 411,000GB9046138374101Lab 272
    20 Apr – 9 May 2023 BestForBritain/Focaldata [lower-alpha 9] N/A10,102GB129 [lower-alpha 10] 470 [lower-alpha 10] 2625 [lower-alpha 11] Lab 290
    10–17 Feb 2023 Survation (MRP)38 Degrees6,434GB1004754552221Lab 318
    27 Jan – 5 Feb 2023 Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus (MRP)The Daily Telegraph28,000GB4550950234100Lab 368
    2–5 Dec 2022 Savanta/Electoral Calculus (MRP)N/A6,237GB6948255214100Lab 314
    20–30 Oct 2022 Focaldata/Best for Britain (MRP)N/A12,010 [lower-alpha 12] GB64518 [lower-alpha 13] 38120000Lab 404
    26–30 Sep 2022 Opinium (MRP) Trades Union Congress 10,495GB13841237395100Lab 172
    23–27 Sep 2022 FindOutNow/Electoral Calculus (MRP)Channel 4 News10,435GB17438151214100Lab 112
    15–16 Sep 2022 Savanta ComRes/Electoral Calculus (MRP) LabourList 6,226GB21135348153100Lab 56
    6–14 Apr 2022 Focaldata (MRP) Best for Britain 10,010GB23033653841018 [lower-alpha 14] Lab 22
    14–22 Mar 2022 Survation (MRP) 38 Degrees 8,002GB2732935473101Lab –64
    14–18 Feb 2022 Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus (MRP)N/A12,700GB2433085916510N/ALab –34
    11–23 Jan 2022 JL Partners Polls (MRP) Sunday Times 4,561GB2013525816410N/ALab 54
    20–22 Dec 2021 Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus (MRP) The Daily Telegraph 10,994GB249311598510N/ALab –28
    1–21 Dec 2021 Focaldata (MRP) The Times 24,373GB2373384811110N/ALab 26
    29 Nov – 1 Dec 2021 Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus (MRP) The Daily Telegraph 10,272GB288271598510N/ACon –74
    5–8 Nov 2021 Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus (MRP) The Daily Telegraph 10,763GB3012575810510N/ACon –48
    6–8 Sep 2021 Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus (MRP) The Daily Telegraph 10,673GB3112445912510N/ACon –28
    13–15 May 2021 Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus (MRP) The Sunday Telegraph 14,715GB386172589520N/ACon 122
    4–29 Dec 2020 Focaldata (MRP) Best for Britain 22,186GB28428257225 [lower-alpha 15] Con –82
    12 Dec 2019 2019 general election –UK365202481141019Con 80

    Polling in the nations and regions

    English mayoral regions

    London

    Graph of opinion polls conducted in London London opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election after 2019 (LOESS).svg
    Graph of opinion polls conducted in London
    Date(s)
    conducted    		PollsterClientSample
    size    		 Lab Con Lib Dems Green Reform OthersLead
    2 May 2024Elections to the Mayoralty and London Assembly
    24–30 Apr 2024 YouGov N/A1,19254%17%9%9%9%2%37
    9–17 Apr 2024 YouGov N/A1,15755%16%8%9%9%3%39
    8–17 Apr 2024 Savanta Mile End Institute1,03452%27%10%4%6%1%25
    6–8 Apr 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,00051%23%13%7%5%0%28
    21–26 Mar 2024 Survation ITV1,01952%21%11%6%9%1%31
    12–19 Feb 2024 YouGov QMUL1,11352%17%10%10%10%1%35
    31 Oct – 8 Nov 2023 Lord Ashcroft Evening Standard2,75051%23%13%6%6%1%28
    12–17 Oct 2023 YouGov QMUL1,06655%20%9%9%4%2%35
    4–6 Sep 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,10047%27%17%4%4%1%20
    20 Jul 2023By-election in Uxbridge and South Ruislip
    30 Jun – 5 Jul 2023 Survation N/A1,05053%23%14%4%3%
    2%
    Reclaim Party on 1%
    UKIP on 0%
    Other on 1%
    		30
    27–31 Mar 2023 YouGov N/A1,05158%18%9%7%6%1%40
    30 Sep – 4 Oct 2022 Survation 38 Degrees6,01259%22%13%––6%37
    5 May 2022Local elections in London
    28 Feb – 3 Mar 2022 YouGov Queen Mary University of London 1,11456%24%8%8%2%1%32
    13–17 Jan 2022 YouGov N/A1,16655%23%9%7%3%3%32
    7–10 Jan 2022 YouGov N/A1,11551%23%11%9%4%2%28
    2 Dec 2021 Old Bexley and Sidcup by-election
    6 May 2021Elections to the Mayoralty and London Assembly [64]
    4–5 May 2021 Panelbase N/A1,00247%32%12%6%–4%15
    2–4 May 2021 YouGov N/A1,14151%33%7%7%1%1%18
    28 Apr – 03 May 2021 Opinium N/A1,00547%32%11%6%0%
    4%
    UKIP on 2%
    Other on 2%
    		15
    7–10 Apr 2021 Opinium N/A1,09349%33%9%6%0%
    4%
    UKIP on 2%
    Other on 2%
    		16
    29 Mar – 1 Apr 2021 YouGov Queen Mary University of London 1,19250%31%8%7%2%2%19
    17–20 Mar 2021 Opinium N/A1,10049%34%9%6%0%
    3%
    UKIP on 2%
    Other on 1%
    		15
    13–14 Jan 2021 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,50048%27%14%8%2%3%21
    16–19 Nov 2020 YouGov Queen Mary University of London 1,19255%30%7%5%3%1%25
    15–17 Oct 2020 Redfield & Wilton N/A2,00053%26%12%6%–3%27
    7–8 Sep 2020 Redfield & Wilton N/A2,00050%29%12%6%–3%21
    5–7 Aug 2020 Redfield & Wilton N/A2,50048%29%14%7%–2%19
    2–6 Mar 2020 YouGov Queen Mary University of London 1,00246%34%11%7%1%1%12
    12 Dec 2019 2019 general election –48.1%32.0%14.9%3.1%1.4%0.5%16.1

    Tees Valley

    The following polls related to the Tees Valley Combined Authority area.

    Dates
    conducted    		PollsterClientSample
    size    		 Con Lab Reform Lib Dems Green OtherLead
    2 May 2024 2024 Tees Valley mayoral election
    17–19 Apr 2024 Redfield and Wilton N/A90026%49%15%6%4%0%23
    12 Dec 2019 2019 general election –43.9%40.2%7.8%4.2%1.2%2.7%3.7

    West Midlands county

    The following polls relate to the West Midlands metropolitan county, as opposed to the statistical region.

    Dates
    conducted    		PollsterClientSample
    size    		 Con Lab Lib Dems Reform Green OtherLead
    2 May 2024 2024 West Midlands mayoral election
    11–17 Apr 2024 Savanta The News Agents1,01823%54%9%9%5%1%31
    10–14 Apr 2024 Redfield and Wilton N/A1,00024%52%7%12%5%1%28
    12 Dec 2019 2019 general election –44.4%44.1%6.1%2.5%2.3%0.6%0.2

    Northern Ireland

    Date(s)
    conducted    		PollsterClientSample
    size    		 DUP Sinn Féin Alliance SDLP UUP TUV OthersLead
    10–13 May 2024LucidTalk [65] Belfast Telegraph 3,31620%26%15%10%13%8%
    8%
    2% Aontú
    1% People Before Profit
    1% Greens
    4% Independents and Others
    		6
    28 Jan – 11 Feb 2024Social Market Research [66] Irish News–University of Liverpool1,20623.5%31.1%15.2%8.1%11.1%4.8%–6.6
    26 Oct – 3 Nov 2023Social Market Research [67] Institute of Irish Studies1,07425%31%15%9%11%5%5%6
    14 Jan – 7 Sep 2023 Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey [lower-alpha 16] ARK 1,20019%24%28%9%13%–
    9%
    Greens on 5%
    Others on 4%
    		4%
    12 Dec 2019 2019 general election –30.6%22.8%16.8%14.9%11.7%N/A3.2%7.8%

    Scotland

    Graph of opinion polls conducted in Scotland Scotland opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election after 2019 (LOESS).svg
    Graph of opinion polls conducted in Scotland
    Date(s)
    conducted    		PollsterClientSample
    size    		 SNP Con Lab Lib Dems Green Reform OthersLead
    5–10 Jun 2024 Opinium N/A1,01734%14%35%8%4%5%1%1
    3–9 Jun 2024 Ipsos STV News1,13636%13%36%5%3%4%
    2%
    Alba on 1%
    Other on 1%
    		Tie
    1–2 Jun 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,00029%17%39%8%3%4%
    2%
    Alba on 1%
    Other on 1%
    		10
    24–28 May 2024 Savanta The Scotsman1,06733%17%37%7%––5%4
    23–27 May 2024 Survation True North1,02632%17%36%9%––6%4
    22–25 May 2024 More in Common N/A81730%17%35%10%3%4%1%5
    22 May Rishi Sunak announces that a general election will be held on 4 July 2024
    13–17 May 2024 YouGov N/A1,11429%12%39%8%7%4%2%10
    8–9 May 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,07831%14%38%8%4%4%
    1%
    Alba on 1%
    Other on 0%
    		7
    6–8 May John Swinney is elected Leader of the Scottish National Party and First Minister of Scotland
    3–8 May 2024 Savanta The Scotsman1,08033%17%37%7%––4%4
    30 Apr – 3 May 2024 Norstat The Sunday Times1,01429%16%34%8%4%6%
    4%
    Alba on 3%
    Other on 1%
    		5
    29 Apr 2024 Humza Yousaf announces his resignation as First Minister of Scotland.
    26–29 Apr 2024 YouGov N/A1,04333%14%34%8%4%5%2%1
    9–12 Apr 2024 Norstat The Sunday Times1,08632%16%32%9%4%5%
    3%
    Alba on 2%
    Other on 1%
    		Tie
    6–7 Apr 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,00032%17%33%8%2%5%
    2%
    Alba on 2%
    Other on 0%
    		1
    25 Mar – 2 Apr 2024 YouGov N/A1,10031%14%33%7%5%7%1%2
    10–11 Mar 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,00034%16%34%6%4%4%
    1%
    Alba on 1%
    Other on 0%
    		Tie
    14–20 Feb 2024 Survation Quantum Communications1,04338%15%33%8%––7%5
    3–4 Feb 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,00033%18%34%8%2%4%
    1%
    Alba on 1%
    Other on 0%
    		1
    25–31 Jan 2024 Ipsos STV News1,00539%14%32%6%4%–5%7
    23–25 Jan 2024 Survation True North1,02936%16%34%8%––7%2
    22–25 Jan 2024 Norstat The Sunday Times1,00733%16%36%7%––8%3
    9–11 Jan 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,04035%17%35%9%2%2%1%Tie
    26–27 Nov 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,05434%17%36%6%3%3%0%2
    20–26 Nov 2023 Ipsos N/A99040%15%30%6%3%–5%10
    29–30 Oct 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,09232%23%32%8%2%2%1%Tie
    20–25 Oct 2023 YouGov Scottish Elections Study1,20032%16%38%6%4%–4%6
    6–11 Oct 2023 Savanta The Scotsman1,01835%19%35%6%––4%Tie
    2–6 Oct 2023 YouGov N/A1,02833%20%32%5%5%2%2%1
    5 Oct 2023 Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election
    4–5 Oct 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,09534%21%32%9%2%–2%4
    5–14 Sep 2023 Opinium Tony Blair Institute1,00437%18%28%8%4%–4%9
    8–13 Sep 2023 YouGov The Times1,10338%16%27%7%6%4%2%11
    2–4 Sep 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,10035%15%35%8%4%–3%Tie
    15–18 Aug 2023 Survation True North1,02237%17%35%6%––5%2
    3–8 Aug 2023 YouGov The Times1,08636%15%32%6%6%3%2%4
    5–6 Aug 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,05037%17%34%7%2%–3%3
    1–2 Jul 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,03035%21%32%7%2%–3%3
    23–28 Jun 2023 Survation –2,02637%17%34%9%––4%3
    12–15 Jun 2023 Panelbase The Sunday Times1,00734%18%34%7%––7%Tie
    9–14 Jun 2023 Savanta The Scotsman1,01838%17%34%7%––4%4
    9–13 Jun 2023 YouGov Scottish Elections Study1,20033%17%36%7%4%–3%3
    3–5 Jun 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,46637%20%28%9%3%–3%9
    15–21 May 2023 Ipsos MORI STV News1,09041%16%29%6%3%–4%12
    27 Apr – 3 May 2023 Survation True North1,00938%18%31%9%2%–4%7
    30 Apr – 2 May 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,29535%18%32%9%3%–3%3
    17–20 Apr 2023 YouGov The Times1,03237%17%28%8%5%2%2%9
    29 Mar – 3 Apr 2023 Survation N/A1,00140%17%32%7%1%–3%8
    31 Mar – 1 Apr 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,00036%19%31%10%2%–3%5
    28–31 Mar 2023 Savanta The Scotsman1,00939%19%33%6%––4%6
    28–30 Mar 2023 Panelbase The Sunday Times1,08939%19%31%5%––6%8
    27 Mar 2023 Humza Yousaf is elected leader of the Scottish National Party
    9–13 Mar 2023 YouGov Sky News1,00239%16%29%6%6%3%1%10
    8–10 Mar 2023 Survation Diffley Partnership1,03740%18%32%6%2%–3%8
    7–10 Mar 2023 Panelbase Scot Goes Pop1,01340%16%33%6%––5%7
    2–5 Mar 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,05039%22%29%6%2%–3%10
    17–20 Feb 2023 YouGov The Times1,01738%19%29%6%4%2%2%9
    15–17 Feb 2023 Survation N/A1,03443%17%30%6%––3%13
    15–17 Feb 2023 Savanta The Scotsman1,00442%17%32%6%––3%10
    10–15 Feb 2023 YouGov Scottish Election Study1,23938%16%35%6%3%–3%3
    1–7 Feb 2023 Survation N/ATBA42%18%29%6%––0%13
    23–26 Jan 2023 YouGov The Sunday Times1,08842%15%29%6%3%3%2%13
    10–12 Jan 2023 Survation True North1,00243%18%29%7%––2%14
    22 Dec – 1 Jan 2023 Survation Scotland in Union1,02544%16%31%6%––1%13
    16–21 Dec 2022 Savanta The Scotsman1,04843%19%30%6%––2%13
    6–9 Dec 2022 YouGov The Times1,09043%14%29%6%4%3%1%14
    28 Nov – 5 Dec 2022 Ipsos MORI STV News1,04551%13%25%6%3%–0%26
    26–27 Nov 2022 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,00041%16%31%8%2%–3%10
    7–11 Oct 2022 Panelbase Alba Party1,000+42%16%30%6%2%–2%12
    5–7 Oct 2022 Panelbase The Sunday Times1,01745%15%30%5%––4%15
    30 Sep – 4 Oct 2022 YouGov The Times1,06745%12%31%7%3%1%1%14
    30 Sep – 4 Oct 2022 ComRes The Scotsman1,02946%15%30%8%––1%16
    28–29 Sep 2022 Survation Scotland in Union1,01144%15%31%6%––4%13
    17–19 Aug 2022 Panelbase The Sunday Times1,13344%20%23%8%––5%21
    29 Jun – 1 Jul 2022 Panelbase The Sunday Times1,01047%19%23%8%––3%24
    23–28 Jun 2022 Savanta ComRes The Scotsman1,02946%18%25%8%––3%21
    23–29 May 2022 Ipsos STV News1,00044%19%23%10%3%–2%21
    18–23 May 2022 YouGov The Times1,11546%19%22%6%3%1%2%24
    5 May 2022 Local elections held in Scotland
    26–29 Apr 2022 Panelbase The Sunday Times1,00942%21%24%7%––5%18
    25–31 Mar 2022 BMG The Herald1,01242%19%26%6%4%–2%16
    24–28 Mar 2022 Survation Ballot Box Scotland1,00245%19%27%6%––2%18
    1–4 Feb 2022 Panelbase The Sunday Times1,12844%20%24%8%2%–2%20
    15–22 Dec 2021 Opinium Daily Record1,32848%17%22%7%3%–4%26
    18–22 Nov 2021 YouGov The Times1,06048%20%18%6%3%2%2%28
    9–12 Nov 2021 Panelbase The Sunday Times1,000~48%21%20%7%––4%27
    20–26 Oct 2021 Panelbase Scot Goes Pop1,00148%21%21%7%––4%27
    6–10 Sep 2021 Panelbase The Sunday Times2,00347%23%19%7%––4%24
    2–8 Sep 2021 Opinium Sky News1,01451%21%17%5%2%–3%30
    20 Aug 2021 Alex Cole-Hamilton becomes leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats [69]
    16–24 Jun 2021 Panelbase The Sunday Times1,28747%25%18%6%––4%22
    13 May 2021 Airdrie and Shotts by-election
    6 May 2021Election to the Scottish Parliament [35]
    2–4 May 2021 YouGov The Times1,14448%22%19%5%4%1%2%26
    30 Apr – 4 May 2021 Survation DC Thomson1,00848%22%20%7%1%–1%26
    28 Apr – 03 May 2021 Opinium Sky News1,01547%25%20%6%1%–1%22
    27–30 Apr 2021 BMG The Herald1,02348%20%20%7%3%–1%28
    23–26 Apr 2021 Survation Good Morning Britain1,00846%22%22%8%––2%24
    21–26 Apr 2021 Panelbase Scot Goes Pop1,07545%22%19%7%4%–3%23
    20–22 Apr 2021 Survation DC Thomson1,03747%21%22%8%1%–1%25
    16–20 Apr 2021 YouGov The Times1,20448%24%19%4%3%1%2%24
    1–6 Apr 2021 Opinium Sky News1,02350%24%19%4%1%–1%26
    29–30 Mar 2021 Survation The Courier1,02149%21%21%8%1%–0%28
    19–22 Mar 2021 YouGov The TimesTBA49%24%17%4%4%1%1%25
    16–19 Mar 2021 BMG The Herald1,02147%21%19%7%3%–3%26
    11–18 Mar 2021 Survation The Courier1,45249%21%21%7%1%–1%28
    11–16 Mar 2021 Opinium Sky News1,09650%23%19%5%3%–1%27
    4–8 Mar 2021 YouGov The Times1,10050%23%17%5%3%1%1%27
    27 Feb 2021 Anas Sarwar is elected leader of Scottish Labour [70]
    25–26 Feb 2021 Survation Daily Record1,01148%23%21%6%––2%25
    11–13 Jan 2021 Survation Scot Goes Pop1,02048%19%23%7%––3%25
    4–9 Dec 2020 Survation N/A1,00951%20%21%6%3%––30
    5–11 Nov 2020 Panelbase Scot Goes Pop1,02050%21%20%5%2%––29
    6–10 Nov 2020 YouGov The Times1,08953%19%17%4%3%3%1%34
    28 Oct – 4 Nov 2020 Survation N/A1,05952%18%20%8%––2%32
    17–21 Sep 2020 JL Partners Politico1,01656%18%15%7%3%–0%38
    2–7 Sep 2020 Survation N/A1,01851%20%21%6%––3%30
    6–10 Aug 2020 YouGov The Times1,14254%20%16%5%2%2%0%34
    5 Aug 2020 Douglas Ross becomes leader of the Scottish Conservatives [71]
    30 Jun – 3 Jul 2020 Panelbase The Sunday Times1,02653%21%19%6%––2%32
    1–5 Jun 2020 Panelbase Scot Goes Pop1,02251%21%19%6%2%–1%30
    1–5 May 2020 Panelbase Wings Over Scotland1,08650%26%17%5%2%–1%24
    24–27 Apr 2020 YouGov N/A1,09551%25%15%6%2%0%1%26
    24–26 Mar 2020 Panelbase The Sunday Times1,02348%27%16%5%3%––21
    14 Feb 2020 Jackson Carlaw becomes leader of the Scottish Conservatives [72]
    12 Dec 2019 2019 general election –45.0%25.1%18.6%9.5%1.0%0.5%0.3%19.9

    Wales

    Graph of opinion polls conducted in Wales Wales opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election after 2019 (LOESS).svg
    Graph of opinion polls conducted in Wales
    Dates
    conducted    		PollsterClientSample
    size    		 Lab Con Plaid Cymru Lib Dems Reform Green OthersLead
    5–7 Jun 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A96045%18%11%5%18%4%0%27
    30 May – 3 Jun 2024 YouGov Barn Cymru1,06645%18%12%5%13%4%1%27
    22–27 May 2024 More in Common N/A80545%21%13%4%12%3%1%24
    22 May 2024 Rishi Sunak announces that a general election will be held on 4 July 2024
    18–19 May 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A90043%19%14%3%15%6%1%24
    22–23 Apr 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A84040%18%14%6%18%4%0%22
    23–24 Mar 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A87849%16%10%5%15%5%1%33
    20 Mar 2024 Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales [73]
    18 Feb 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A87445%22%10%5%13%5%1%23
    24–26 Jan 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,10048%20%10%4%12%4%1%28
    10–11 Dec 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,08647%22%11%6%10%2%0%25
    4–7 Dec 2023 YouGov Barn Cymru1,00442%20%15%7%12%3%1%22
    12–13 Nov 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,10044%24%13%4%9%5%1%20
    14–15 Oct 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A95946%26%10%3%10%4%0%20
    16–17 Sep 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,17244%22%10%9%7%6%1%22
    1–6 Sep 2023 YouGov Barn Cymru1,05150%19%12%5%8%5%2%31
    13–14 Aug 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,06841%24%13%7%11%4%0%17
    14–16 Jul 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,05046%24%10%7%10%3%1%22
    17–18 Jun 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,00043%22%10%7%12%4%1%21
    16 Jun 2023 Rhun ap Iorwerth becomes leader of Plaid Cymru [74]
    12–17 May 2023 YouGov Barn Cymru1,06449%19%10%8%9%4%1%30
    14–15 May 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,05843%23%11%8%9%4%1%20
    15–17 Apr 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,25144%24%12%7%9%4%0%20
    17–23 Feb 2023 YouGov WalesOnline1,08353%19%12%4%8%3%1%34
    3–7 Feb 2023 YouGov Barn Cymru1,08149%20%14%5%9%3%1%29
    25 Nov – 1 Dec 2022 YouGov Barn Cymru1,04251%18%13%4%8%4%2%33
    30 Sep – 4 Oct 2022 Survation 38 Degrees6,01251%24%13%6%––6%27
    20–22 Sep 2022 YouGov Barn Cymru1,01446%23%15%5%5%3%3%23
    12–16 Jun 2022 YouGov Barn Cymru1,02041%26%16%7%4%4%2%15
    5 May 2022 Local elections held in Wales [75]
    25 Feb – 1 Mar 2022 YouGov Barn Cymru1,08641%26%13%7%6%4%3%15
    13–16 Dec 2021 YouGov Barn Cymru1,00941%26%13%3%7%6%3%15
    27 Sep – 1 Oct 2021 YouGov  ? ?39%29%17%3%5%–7%10
    13–16 Sep 2021 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University1,07137%31%15%4%6%5%2%6
    6 May 2021Election to the Senedd [36]
    2–4 May 2021 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University1,07137%36%14%3%4%3%3%1
    18–21 Apr 2021 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University1,14237%33%18%2%3%4%3%4
    9–19 Apr 2021 Opinium Sky News2,00542%33%14%3%–3%
    5%
    UKIP on 3%
    Other on 2%
    		9
    16–19 Mar 2021 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University1,17435%35%17%4%2%3%3%Tie
    24 Jan 2021 Andrew RT Davies becomes leader of the Welsh Conservatives [76]
    11–14 Jan 2021 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University1,01836%33%17%3%5%4%2%3
    26–30 Oct 2020 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University1,01343%32%13%3%5%3%2%11
    28 Aug – 4 Sep 2020 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University1,11041%33%15%2%4%3%2%8
    29 May – 1 Jun 2020 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University1,02139%35%15%5%2%3%1%4
    3–7 Apr 2020 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University1,00834%46%11%4%3%2%0%12
    20–26 Jan 2020 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University1,03736%41%13%5%3%2%1%5
    12 Dec 2019 2019 general election –40.9%36.1%9.9%6.0%5.4%1.0%0.7%4.8

    Constituency polling

    Caerfyrddin (Carmarthen)

    Caerfyrddin (Carmarthen) will be a new seat at the next election, replacing Carmarthen East and Dinefwr and Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire.

    Dates
    conducted    		PollsterClientSample
    size    		 Con PC Lab Reform Lib Dems Ind (Edwards) [lower-alpha 17] OthersLead
    2 Jan – 4 Feb 2024 Survation Plaid Cymru 52024%30%24%4%4%10%3%6
    12 Dec 2019 2019 general election [lower-alpha 18] –39.2%30.7%25.1%3.8%1.3%––8.5

    Chingford and Woodford Green

    Chingford and Woodford Green will have different boundaries between the 2019 and next elections. The Conservative candidate will be former party leader Iain Duncan Smith.

    Dates
    conducted    		PollsterClientSample
    size    		 Con Lab Lib Dems Green OthersLead
    31 Aug – 21 Sep 2021 Opinium [lower-alpha 19] Greenpeace 52542%39%6%8%5%3
    12 Dec 2019 2019 general election [lower-alpha 18] –48.2%45.3%5.8%0.4%0.3%2.9

    Clacton

    Clacton will have different boundaries between the 2019 and next elections.

    Dates
    conducted    		PollsterClientSample
    size    		 Con Lab Lib Dems Green Reform OthersLead
    9–12 Jan 2024 Survation [lower-alpha 19] Arron Banks 50938%30%6%–18%9%8
    27%23%6%–37% [lower-alpha 20] 8%10
    12 Dec 2019 2019 general election [lower-alpha 18] –71.9%15.6%6.2%2.9%–3.4%56.3

    Godalming and Ash

    Godalming and Ash will be a new seat at the next election, mostly replacing South West Surrey. The Conservative candidate is Chancellor of the Exchequer, Jeremy Hunt. [79] [80]

    Dates
    conducted    		PollsterClientSample
    size    		 Con Lib Dems Lab Reform Green OthersLead
    16–20 Feb 2024 Survation 38 Degrees 50729%35%23%8%3%2%6
    12 Dec 2019 2019 general election [lower-alpha 18] –53.4%34.1%8.9%–1.6%–14.6

    Hartlepool

    Hartlepool will maintain its 2019 boundaries at the next election.

    Dates
    conducted    		PollsterClientSample
    size    		 Lab Con Reform Lib Dems Green OthersLead
    30 May 2023 – 9 Jun 2024 We Think The Economist 44858%10%23%6%2%1%32
    6 May 2021 2021 Hartlepool by-election –28.7%51.9%1.2%1.2%1.2%17%23.2
    12 Dec 2019 2019 general election –37.7%28.9%25.8%4.1%–3.4%5.4

    Mid Bedfordshire

    Mid Bedfordshire will have different boundaries between the 2019 and next elections.

    Dates
    conducted    		PollsterClientSample
    size    		 Con Lab Lib Dems Green Reform OthersLead
    19 Oct 2023 2023 Mid Bedfordshire by-election [lower-alpha 19] –31.1%34.1%23.1%1.8%3.7%6.7%3.0
    12–15 Sep 2023 Survation [lower-alpha 19] Labour Together55934%34%16%6%6%4%Tie
    12 Dec 2019 2019 general election [lower-alpha 18] –60.5%20.5%12.5%3.9%–2.6%40.0

    Portsmouth North

    Portsmouth North will maintain its 2019 boundaries at the next election. The Conservative candidate is Penny Mordaunt, the Leader of the House of Commons.

    Dates
    conducted    		PollsterClientSample
    size    		 Con Lab Lib Dems Green Reform OthersLead
    9–19 Apr 2024 Techne N/A1,00039%35%7%4%15%–4
    12 Dec 2019 2019 general election –61.4%27.0%7.4%2.8%–1.4%34.4

    Wokingham

    Wokingham will have different boundaries between the 2019 and next elections.

    Dates
    conducted    		PollsterClientSample
    size    		 Con Lib Dems Lab Green OthersLead
    31 Aug – 21 Sep 2021 Opinium [lower-alpha 19] Greenpeace 60742%22%24%8%3%18
    12 Dec 2019 2019 general election [lower-alpha 18] –55.5%32.3%9.9%2.2%0.1%23.2

    Wycombe

    Wycombe will maintain its 2019 boundaries at the next election.

    Dates
    conducted    		PollsterClientSample
    size    		 Con Lab Lib Dems Green OthersLead
    31 Aug – 21 Sep 2021 Opinium [lower-alpha 19] Greenpeace 53237%33%16%8%5%4
    12 Dec 2019 2019 general election [lower-alpha 18] –43.1%39.9%11.3%2.6%3.1%3.2

    Ynys Môn

    Ynys Môn will maintain its 2019 boundaries at the next election.

    Dates
    conducted    		PollsterClientSample
    size    		 Con Lab PC Reform Lib Dems OthersLead
    21 Dec 2023 – 5 Jan 2024 Survation Plaid Cymru 50726%27%39%4%1%3%12
    12 Dec 2019 2019 general election –35.5%30.1%28.5%6.0%––5.4

    Other polling

    "Red wall"

    Polling firms publish polls of the "red wall", which take respondents from a selection of constituencies gained by the Conservatives in the 2019 general election. Different pollsters use different sets of constituencies for their polling.

    Deltapoll

    Deltapoll have published a poll of the 57 constituencies that the Conservatives gained from Labour and the Liberal Democrats without specifying any regions.

    Dates
    conducted    		PollsterClientSample
    size    		 Con Lab Lib Dems OtherLead
    23–30 Dec 2021 Deltapoll The Mail on Sunday61233%49%8%10%16
    12 Dec 2019 2019 general election –47.4%37.3%6.9%8.4%10.1

    Focaldata

    Focaldata have published a poll of the 44 seats the Conservatives gained from Labour in northern England and the Midlands.

    Dates
    conducted    		PollsterClientSample
    size    		 Con Lab Lib Dems OtherLead
    29–30 Apr 2021 Focaldata The Times57344%45%1%3%1
    12 Dec 2019 2019 general election –47.8%39.0%4.8%8.4%8.8

    JL Partners

    JL Partners publishes polls of forty-five seats the Conservative Party gained from the Labour Party across northern England, the Midlands and Wales, apart from Bridgend, Clwyd South, the Vale of Clwyd, Wrexham and Ynys Môn.

    Dates
    conducted    		PollsterClientSample
    size    		 Con Lab Lib Dems OtherLead
    2–8 Mar 2023 JL Partners Channel 4 News50828%53%7%12%25
    7–22 Feb 2023 JL Partners Channel 4 News52030%56%6%8%26
    14–27 Sep 2022 JL Partners Kekst CNC and Conservatives in Communication53834%54%7%5%20
    6–16 Jan 2022 JL Partners Channel 4 News51837%48%8%7%11
    25 Nov – 6 Dec 2021 JL Partners Channel 4 News–45%43%6%5%2
    17–25 Mar 2021 JL Partners Channel 4 News50047%43%4%6%4
    19–30 Nov 2020 JL Partners Channel 4 News49941%47%3%8%6
    12 Dec 2019 2019 general election –47.7%39.1%4.8%8.3%8.6

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies publishes polls of 37 constituencies won by the Conservatives in 2019 that had been held by Labour in 2010, 2015 and 2017, as well as Burnley, Redcar and Vale of Clwyd

    Dates
    conducted    		PollsterClientSample
    size    		 Con Lab Reform Lib Dems Green Plaid OtherLead
    11–12 May 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/ATBC22%47%16%7%5%1%1%25
    13–14 Apr 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,00024%44%18%6%5%1%2%20
    16 Mar 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,07224%48%16%5%4%1%1%24
    25 Feb 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,00025%49%14%6%4%1%2%24
    30–31 Jan 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,05528%48%14%4%5%1%1%20
    17–18 Dec 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A97528%48%11%7%4%1%1%20
    19 Nov 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,00026%50%11%5%6%1%1%24
    22 Oct 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,00032%48%6%7%4%1%2%16
    23 Sep 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,25031%45%10%6%6%1%1%14
    3 Sep 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,00032%48%6%7%3%2%3%16
    20 Aug 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,06028%53%7%6%4%1%1%25
    6 Aug 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,40028%49%8%8%4%2%1%21
    23 Jul 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,00030%48%10%6%4%2%1%18
    9 Jul 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,15027%52%9%6%4%1%2%25
    25 Jun 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,02026%53%9%6%4%1%1%27
    11 Jun 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,20028%50%8%7%4%1%2%22
    28 May 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,15831%48%7%7%4%1%1%17
    14 May 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,10029%52%7%7%4%1%0%23
    30 Apr 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,00030%48%6%8%5%2%1%18
    16 Apr 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,00031%47%7%7%5%1%2%16
    3 Apr 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,00030%49%9%6%4%1%1%19
    19 Mar 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,10032%48%8%6%4%1%2%16
    5 Mar 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,00029%51%9%6%2%1%2%22
    19 Feb 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,00027%55%10%4%3%1%1%28
    5 Feb 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,10029%52%8%5%4%1%1%23
    23 Jan 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,20027%53%9%5%4%1%1%26
    8–9 Jan 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,20029%51%9%5%3%1%1%22
    21–22 Nov 2022 Redfield & Wilton ITV Peston1,50030%53%5%6%3%1%1%23
    5–6 Nov 2022 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,00028%53%6%5%4%2%1%25
    24–25 Oct 2022 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,50028%56%5%8%2%1%1%28
    16–17 Oct 2022 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,50021%61%8%5%3%1%1%40
    3–4 Oct 2022 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,50023%61%3%7%4%1%1%38
    18–19 Sep 2022 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,50034%49%7%5%4%0%1%15
    4 Sep 2022 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,50031%48%7%7%5%1%1%17
    21 Aug 2022 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,50034%47%5%8%3%2%1%13
    08 Aug 2022 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,50033%48%6%7%5%1%3%15
    25–26 Jul 2022 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,50034%45%3%10%5%1%3%11
    11 Jul 2022 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,50032%46%7%10%4%0%1%13
    26–27 Jun 2022 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,50035%46%3%8%3%1%2%11
    12–13 Jun 2022 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,50036%46%6%5%4%2%2%10
    12 Dec 2019 2019 general election –46.7%38.0%6.5%4.5%1.4%1.2%1.7%8.7

    YouGov

    YouGov publishes polls of all fifty seats the Conservative Party gained from the Labour Party across northern England, the Midlands and Wales.

    Dates
    conducted    		PollsterClientSample
    size    		 Con Lab Lib Dems OtherLead
    17–28 Sep 2021 YouGov (MRP)The Times9,93141%40%5%14%1
    6–18 Sep 2021 YouGov N/A79444%38%4%14%6
    12 Dec 2019 2019 general election –47.3%39.0%4.7%8.9%8.3

    "Blue wall"

    Polling firms publish polls of the "blue wall", which take respondents from constituencies held by the Conservatives but which might be gained by Labour or the Liberal Democrats. Different pollsters use different sets of constituencies for their polling.

    JL Partners

    JL Partners have published a poll of the forty-five seats in southern England which the Conservatives won in 2019 with a majority of under 10,000 votes.

    Dates
    conducted    		PollsterClientSample
    size    		 Con Lab Lib Dems Green OtherLead
    14–27 Sep 2022 JL Partners Kekst CNC and Conservatives in Communication52134%40%20%3%3%6
    12 Dec 2019 2019 general election –48.5%26.6%21.1%1.7%2.1%21.9

    More in Common

    More in Common have published a poll of the thirty-nine seats which the Conservatives won in 2019 and saw the largest total swing towards Labour and the Liberal Democrats in the 2017 and 2019 elections.

    Dates
    conducted    		PollsterClientSample
    size    		 Con Lib Dems Lab Green Reform OtherLead
    20 Feb – 2 Mar 2024 More in Common N/A1,00532%20%33%5%10%1%1
    12 Dec 2019 2019 general election –51%25%20%2%0%2%26

    Opinium

    Opinium published a poll of the forty-one constituencies held by the Conservatives since 2010, where Labour or the Liberal Democrats outperformed their national swing against the Conservatives in 2017 and 2019, with a majority of under 10,000. [81]

    Dates
    conducted    		PollsterClientSample
    size    		 Con Lab Lib Dems Green OtherLead
    31 Aug – 21 Sep 2021 Opinium Greenpeace 1,00043%34%14%5%4%9
    12 Dec 2019 2019 general election –48.6%30.7%17.6%1.6%1.5%17.9

    Redfield & Wilton Strategies

    Redfield and Wilton Strategies publishes polls of the forty-two constituencies in southern England which voted Conservative in the last three general elections, where more than a quarter of adults have degrees, where more than 42.5% of voters are estimated to have voted to remain in the European Union in the 2016 referendum, and where the Conservative majority over Labour was under 10,000 or the Conservative majority over the Liberal Democrats was under 15,000, in the 2019 general election. [lower-alpha 21]

    Dates
    conducted    		PollsterClientSample
    size    		 Con Lib Dems Lab Green Reform OtherLead
    28 Apr 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A88025%23%34%5%11%1%9
    31 Mar 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,04026%20%34%6%14%0%8
    3 Mar 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,19528%19%37%5%10%1%9
    11 Feb 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,00030%21%37%4%7%2%7
    17–18 Jan 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,00030%24%31%2%11%1%1
    4 Dec 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A80029%26%30%3%11%1%1
    5 Nov 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,05030%25%34%4%6%1%4
    7 Oct 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,00036%25%32%3%4%1%4
    10 Sep 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,08631%26%33%4%6%1%2
    26–27 Aug 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,27432%25%33%4%5%1%1
    12–13 Aug 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,40033%25%32%5%5%0%1
    30 Jul 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,15031%24%35%3%6%1%4
    16 Jul 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,15432%23%36%5%5%0%4
    2 Jul 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,00029%25%36%4%5%1%7
    17–18 Jun 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,10031%22%38%4%5%0%7
    4 Jun 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,32830%26%34%5%5%1%4
    22 May 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,00034%22%33%3%6%2%1
    7 May 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,09032%23%36%2%5%1%4
    23 Apr 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,00032%24%34%5%5%1%2
    9 Apr 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,22835%20%37%5%4%0%2
    26 Mar 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,50031%21%39%4%4%0%8
    12 Mar 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,25034%23%36%3%4%1%2
    26 Feb 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,15032%18%41%5%4%1%9
    11–12 Feb 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,10034%17%41%4%3%2%7
    28–29 Jan 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,20032%19%42%4%4%0%10
    11 Jan 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,20030%21%40%3%6%1%10
    21–22 Nov 2022 Redfield & Wilton ITV Peston1,20030%21%41%4%3%1%11
    13–14 Nov 2022 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,25032%23%38%2%4%0%6
    29 Oct 2022 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,25033%16%44%2%4%1%11
    7–8 Oct 2022 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,50028%24%41%4%3%4%13
    12 Dec 2019 2019 general election –49.7%27.4%20.6%1.3%-0.9%22.3

    YouGov

    YouGov specifies the blue wall to be constituencies held by the Conservative Party in the South or East of England in the 2019 election, with a population which by majority voted to remain in the European Union and have a higher level of graduates than the country at large. [82]

    Dates
    conducted    		PollsterClientSample
    size    		 Con Lib Dems Lab Green OtherLead
    6–18 Sep 2021 YouGov N/A84145%15%26%11%4%19
    20–28 Jul 2021 YouGov N/A1,14144%18%24%9%6%20
    12 Dec 2019 2019 general election –51.7%24.0%19.7%2.4%2.2%27.7

    Other geographical samples

    Find Out Now

    Find Out Now conducted a poll of voters in England and Wales.

    Date(s)
    conducted    		PollsterClientSample
    size    		 Con Lab Lib Dems Green OthersLead
    4–6 Jun 2021 Find Out Now The Constitution Society 14,59645%36%6%1%11%9
    12 Dec 2019 2019 general election –46.6%34.3%12.1%2.9%4.1%12.3

    Survation

    Survation has conducted a poll of voters in Cornwall, Cumbria, Gwynedd, Norfolk, and North Yorkshire.

    Dates
    conducted    		PollsterClientSample
    size    		 Con Lab Lib Dems Green OtherLead
    7–14 Mar 2022 Survation Woodrow Communications1,01238%36%10%8%
    7%
    Reform UK on 3%
    Plaid Cymru on 2%
    UKIP on 1%
    Reclaim Party on 0%
    Other on 1%
    		2
    12 Dec 2019 2019 general election –53.3%25.8%14.0%2.2%4.727.5

    Survation has conducted a poll of voters in Coventry.

    Dates
    conducted    		PollsterClientSample
    size    		 Lab Con Lib Dems Reform Green OtherLead
    1–11 Apr 2022 Survation Unite the Union 52852%27%6%5%6%
    3%
    UKIP on 1%
    Reclaim Party on 0%
    Other on 2%
    		25
    12 Dec 2019 2019 general election –46.5%40.5%6.0%4.0%2.7%0.3%6

    Survation has published multiple polls of the 100 most rural constituencies in England.

    Dates
    conducted    		PollsterClientSample
    size    		 Con Lab Lib Dems Green Reform OtherLead
    23–30 Jan 2024 Survation Country Land and Business Association1,09234%37%14%4%9%2%3
    13–24 Apr 2023 Survation Country Land and Business Association1,01741%36%13%5%4%0%5
    12 Dec 2019 2019 general election –58.9%19.3%16.6%3.5%0.6%1.2%39.6

    YouGov

    YouGov produced a poll of seats in South West England that had elected a Conservative MP in every election since the 2015 general election and where a majority of voters were estimated to have voted to leave the European Union in the 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum. They branded these seats the "Conservative Celtic Fringe".

    Dates
    conducted    		PollsterClientSample
    size    		 Con Lab Lib Dems Reform Green OtherLead
    1–15 Jun 2022 YouGov N/A81338%24%22%6%8%1%14
    12 Dec 2019 2019 general election –56.7%19.2%19.1%0.1%3.0%1.9%37.5

    YouGov have also conducted a poll of voters in constituencies which contain settlements identified by the Office for National Statistics as coastal towns.

    Dates
    conducted    		PollsterClientSample
    size    		 Con Lab Lib Dems Green Reform PC OtherLead
    17–18 Jan 2024 YouGov Fabian SocietyN/A21%52%N/AN/A14%N/AN/A31
    21–23 Nov 2022 YouGov Fabian Society63132%38%9%21%6
    12 Dec 2019 2019 general election –51.2%29.2%11.4%2.6%2.0%1.7%1.7%22.0

    Labour Together

    A poll was conducted by, or on behalf of, Labour Together of "people in villages or rural areas".

    Dates
    conducted    		PollsterClientSample
    size    		 Con Lab Lib Dems Green Reform PC OtherLead
    27 Oct – 1 Nov 2023 ??? Labour Together~5,00030%34%36%4
    12 Dec 2019 2019 general election –?%?%?????? [lower-alpha 22]

    Ethnic minority voters

    Dates
    conducted    		PollsterClientAreaSample
    size    		 Lab Con Lib Dems SNP Green OthersLead
    21–27 Feb 2022 Number Cruncher Politics ITVN/A1,00159%21%8%2%5%
    4%
    Plaid Cymru on 0%
    Reform UK on 2%
    Other on 2%
    		38
    7–14 Jun 2021 Number Cruncher Politics ITVN/A50151%28%7%3%9%
    3%
    Plaid Cymru on 0%
    Reform UK on 2%
    Other on 1%
    		23
    25 Jan – 01 Feb 2021 Number Cruncher Politics ITVN/A1,00058%22%6%2%8%
    4%
    Plaid Cymru on 0%
    Reform UK on 3%
    Other on 1%
    		36
    9–17 Oct 2020 Number Cruncher Politics ITVUK1,00060%22%5%3%5%
    3%
    Plaid Cymru on 0%
    Brexit Party on 2%
    Other on 1%
    		38
    12 Dec 2019 2019 general election (Ipsos MORI) [83] GB27,59164%20%12%2%1%1%44

    Muslim voters

    Dates
    conducted    		PollsterClientAreaSample
    size    		 Lab Con Lib Dems SNP Green OthersLead
    24 May – 3 Jun 2024 Savanta HyphenUK2,86263%12%12%1%7%
    4%
    Plaid Cymru on 0%
    Reform UK on 1%
    Other on 3%
    		51
    16 Feb – 13 Mar 2024 JL Partners Henry Jackson SocietyUK100061%12%9%1%9%5%49
    18 Jan – 3 Feb 2024 Survation Labour Muslim NetworkUK68360%8%9%4%14%5%46
    27 Oct – 3 Nov 2023 Savanta N/AUK1,02364%19%9%1%5%
    2%
    Plaid Cymru on 0%
    Reform UK on 1%
    Other on 1%
    		45
    12 Dec 2019
    2019 election (JL Partners) UK1,00072%17%7%0%3%0%55
    2019 election (Survation) UK50486%9%1%1%3%0%77
    2019 election (Savanta) UK1,02367%25%5%1%—1%42

    Private renter voters

    Dates
    conducted    		PollsterClientAreaSample
    size    		 Lab Con Lib Dems Green Reform OthersLead
    5–10 Apr 2024 Survation 38 DegreesUK2,00949%23%9%8%10%1%26
    2019 election (Ipsos) UKN/A46%31%11%–—12%15

    Young voters

    Savanta has published polls of voters aged between 18 and 25. The 2019 result comes from the British Election Study's estimate of voters aged 18 to 24.

    Dates
    conducted    		PollsterClientAreaSample
    size    		 Lab Con Lib Dems Green SNP OthersLead
    22–26 Sep 2023 Savanta ITV PestonUK1,02356%15%16%5%3%5%40
    27 Apr – 3 May 2023 Savanta ITV PestonUK1,02362%15%9%7%3%6%47
    12 Dec 2019 2019 general election (British Election Study) [84] UK52%28%11%9%24

    See also

    Notes

    1. ↑ Methodology change. [7]
    2. 1 2 The headline voting intention figures are calculated by YouGov from its MRP seat projections.
    3. 1 2 3 Values calculated from the weighted responses for each party, after excluding Don't Know and Would Not Vote.
    4. ↑ The published lead was 15 points. This is not apparent from the party numbers due to rounding.
    5. ↑ Including Plaid Cymru
    6. ↑ Survation also polled voting intention if Liz Truss were Prime Minister, which saw Labour on 46%, the Conservatives on 29%, Liberal Democrats on 11% and others on 12%.
    7. ↑ Opinium announced they had amended their methodology, so it cannot be compared directly to previous Opinium polls.
    8. ↑ SNP and Plaid Cymru are listed together.
    9. ↑ First MRP to take into account new constituency boundaries
    10. 1 2 "The baseline MRP by Focaldata predicted Labour winning 469 seats and the Conservatives 128 seats. 'Don't Know' was predicted to win two seats, namely Aberdeenshire North and Moray East; as well as Boston and Skegness. Given in a General Election scenario 'Don't Know' would not be on the ballot paper, we reallocated these seats to the party in second place. This meant that we awarded Aberdeenshire North and Moray East to the Labour Party; and then Boston and Skegness to the Conservatives in all scenarios and analyses that we performed."
    11. ↑ This includes the 18 seats of Northern Ireland. No polling in Northern Ireland was conducted as part of this poll.
    12. ↑ 10,010 sample, 20–26 October 2022; 2,000 sample, 28–30 October 2022. [62] "The MRP poll by Focaldata of 10,010 people, on behalf of the internationalist campaign group Best for Britain, was conducted about the time of Truss's resignation and updated with an MRP poll of 2,000 people after Sunak took over." [63]
    13. ↑ 517 listed; one seat (Clacton) is reported as "Don't Know", but "in reality the seat would be won by Labour", and is therefore added to Labour's projected total seat count. [62]
    14. ↑ Polling was of GB adults only, but 18 seats were assigned to "Northern Ireland Parties" — without differentiation — in the reporting of the MRP's outcome
    15. ↑ This includes the 18 seats of Northern Ireland. No polling in Northern Ireland was conducted as part of this poll.
    16. ↑ The question asked was "If there were a general election tomorrow, which political party do you think you would be most likely to support?". [68]
    17. ↑ Jonathan Edwards is the incumbent MP for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr, elected as a Plaid MP. He was suspended from the party after being arrested for domestic assault. [77]
    18. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Notional result [78]
    19. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Poll conducted based on the previous boundaries for this constituency, not the boundaries used at the general election.
    20. ↑ Nigel Farage as candidate
    21. ↑ These are: Bournemouth East, Chelsea and Fulham, Cheltenham, Chingford and Woodford Green, Chippenham, Chipping Barnet, Cities of London and Westminster, Colchester, Esher and Walton, Filton and Bradley Stoke, Finchley and Golders Green, Guildford, Harrow East, Hendon, Henley, Hitchin and Harpenden, Lewes, Milton Keynes North, Milton Keynes South, Mole Valley, Reading West, Romsey and Southampton North, South Cambridgeshire, South East Cambridgeshire, South West Surrey, St Ives, Sutton and Cheam, Taunton Deane, Thornbury and Yate, Totnes, Truro and Falmouth, Tunbridge Wells, Uxbridge and South Ruislip, Wantage, Watford, Wells, West Dorset, Wimbledon, Winchester, Woking, Wokingham, and Wycombe.
    22. ↑ Results of poll displayed "a 17-point swing to Labour compared with 2019"

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    References

    1. ↑ "Rishi Sunak announces 4 July general election". BBC News. 22 May 2024. Archived from the original on 8 June 2024. Retrieved 22 May 2024.
    2. ↑ Jane Bainbridge, "ComRes Sold To Savanta" Archived 9 June 2024 at the Wayback Machine , Research Live, 1 August 2019. Retrieved 13 January 2024.
    3. ↑ Katie McQuater. "ComRes Rebrands To Savanta ComRes" Archived 28 September 2022 at the Wayback Machine , Research Live, 13 November 2019. Retrieved 13 January 2024.
    4. ↑ Katie McQuater, "Savanta Drops ComRes, MSI, Youthsight and Mindspark Brand Names" Archived 8 June 2024 at the Wayback Machine , Research Live, 1 December 2022. Retrieved 13 January 2024.
    5. ↑ Mike Underwood, "Visit WeThink — the new home for polling by the team at Omnisis" Archived 23 May 2024 at the Wayback Machine , Omnisis, 30 August 2023. Retrieved 13 January 2024.
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