Opinion polling for the 2007 Scottish Parliament election

Last updated

This is a list of opinion polls for the 2007 Scottish Parliament election. The first figure for each party is for the 1st, first-past-the-post, constituency, vote; the second figure is for the 2nd, proportional representation, regional, vote. The Scottish Greens and the Scottish Socialist Party ran only one constituency candidate each in the 2007 election (the Greens in Glasgow Kelvin and the SSP in Paisley North) so constituency values in polls for those parties have little meaning.

Contents

ICM, Ipsos MORI, Populus, YouGov and TNS System Three (a subsidiary of Taylor Nelson Sofres) are all members of the British Polling Council (BPC), and therefore fully disclose the methodology used, and publish tables of the detailed statistical findings. Scottish Opinion (a brand of Progressive Partnership) and mruk are not BPC members.

Constituency vote

Pollster/clientDate(s)
conducted		 Lab SNP Con Lib Dem SSP Green Others
2007 Scottish Parliament election 32.2%32.9%16.6%16.2%---
YouGov/The Daily Telegraph [ dead link ]2 May 200731%37%13%14%--5%
ICM/The Guardian/The Scotsman 30 April 200732%34%13%16%--5%
Populus/The Times 30 April 200729%33%13%15%--10%
YouGov/Daily Telegraph 26 April 200730%39%13%15%--4%
YouGov/ESRC 23 April 200730%38%12%15%---
YouGov/Sunday Times 20 April 200730%37%14%15%--4%
mruk/Herald 19 April 200734%38%11%13%---
Populus/Times 17 April 200730%34%13%18%--6%
Scottish Opinion/Mail on Sunday 15 April 200735%32%13%15%---
ICM/Scotsman 3 April 200727%32%13%19%5%-4%
TNS System Three/STV 1 April 200734%39%13%11%--3%
YouGov/Daily Telegraph 28 March 200729%35%13%14%--9%
mruk/Herald 27 March 200738%34%10%15%--3%
Scottish Opinion/Daily Mail 26 March 200728%34%11%11%-9%-
Populus/Times 25 March 200728%38%14%15%--6%
ICM/Scotsman 26 February 200729%34%16%16%1%--
ICM/Scotsman 29 January 200731%33%13%17%3%-3%
YouGov/Sunday Times 12 January 200729%35%13%18%1%2%2%
YouGov/Channel 4 8 January 200731%33%14%14%1%5%4%
ICM/Scotsman 23 November 200629%34%13%17%3%2%2%
ICM/Scotsman 30 October 200630%32%14%15%4%3%3%
Scottish Opinion/Sunday Mail 20 October 200632%35%11%16%2%-2%
YouGov/Sunday Times 7 September 200630%29%14%18%2%5%4%
TNS System Three/Herald [ dead link ]29 August 200636%28%12%17%4%3%-
TNS System Three/Herald [ dead link ]1 August 200637%29%13%14%3%2%-
TNS System Three/Herald [ dead link ]4 July 200637%31%11%14%3%3%-
Ipsos MORI 1 July 200628%30%15%19%1%4%3%
2003 Scottish Parliament election 34.9%23.8%16.5%15.1%6.2%-3.5%

Regional vote

Pollster/clientDate(s)
conducted		 Lab SNP Con Lib Dem Green SSP Others
2007 Scottish Parliament election29.2%31.0%13.9%11.3%4.0%0.6%
YouGov/The Daily Telegraph [ dead link ]2 May 200727%32%13%10%9%-9%
ICM/The Guardian/The Scotsman 30 April 200729%30%13%16%4%3%5%
Populus/The Times 30 April 200728%31%14%15%4%1%7%
YouGov/Daily Telegraph 26 April 200727%31%13%11%9%3%7%
YouGov/ESRC 23 April 200727%32%14%12%---
YouGov/The Sunday Times 20 April 200728%35%13%13%--11%
mruk/The Herald 19 April 200736%37%11%11%3%--
Populus/The Times 17 April 200727%34%14%18%3%1%3%
Scottish Opinion/Mail on Sunday 15 April 200734%31%12%13%5%--
ICM/Scotsman 3 April 200727%31%12%17%5%5%3%
TNS System Three/STV 1 April 200725%36%11%13%6%3%7%
YouGov/The Daily Telegraph 28 March 200727%33%15%12%6%2%5%
mruk/The Herald 27 March 200737%35%10%14%3%-1%
Scottish Opinion/Daily Mail 26 March 200728%32%10%11%10%--
Populus/The Times 25 March 200730%35%14%14%4%1%2%
ICM/The Scotsman 26 February 200728%32%15%17%4%2%-
ICM/The Scotsman 29 January 200727%33%14%17%5%3%2%
YouGov/The Sunday Times 12 January 200730%32%14%14%5%1%4%
YouGov/Channel 4 8 January 200728%33%15%11%7%1%4%
ICM/Scotsman 23 November 200626%31%12%19%6%4%2%
ICM/Scotsman 30 October 200628%28%14%17%6%4%3%
Scottish Opinion/Sunday Mail 20 October 200625%28%11%26%4%5%1%
YouGov/The Sunday Times 7 September 200627%29%14%15%8%2%5%
TNS System Three/The Herald [ dead link ]29 August 200628%27%11%19%8%6%-
TNS System Three/The Herald [ dead link ]1 August 200629%32%10%15%8%4%-
TNS System Three/Herald [ dead link ]4 July 200629%33%9%17%5%5%-
Ipsos MORI 1 July 200626%28%16%19%6%1%4%
2003 Scottish Parliament election 29.3%20.9%15.5%11.8%6.9%6.7%9.0%

Seat predictions

The Scotsman stated that the findings of their 3 April poll would produce a seat distribution as follows: SNP 44 MSPs (+17), Labour 39 MSPs (-11), Liberal Democrats 24 MSPs (+7), Conservative 15 MSPs (-3).

The Sunday Times (12 January) stated that the findings of their poll would produce a seat distribution as follows: Labour 42 MSPs (-8), SNP 38 MSPs (+11), Liberal Democrats 19 MSPs (+2), Conservative 17 MSPs (-1), Greens 9 MSPs (+2), others 4 MSPs (-6).

Constitutional issue

Several polls were carried out on whether voters would support independence for Scotland, a key issue in this election and a central policy of the SNP. However, the results of such polls have historically been proven to be sensitive to the wording of the question used.

When polls give three options, including an option for greater devolution but stopping short of independence, support for full independence is much lower. In a poll by The Times , published on 20 April 2007, given a choice between independence, the status quo, or greater powers for the Scottish Parliament within the United Kingdom, the latter option had majority support (56%) with only 22% supporting full independence. [8] Even among SNP voters, more (47%) supported a more powerful Parliament than full independence (45%).

Other issues

The result for the Kelvin constituency in Glasgow being declared. Declaration Glasgow Kelvin.JPG
The result for the Kelvin constituency in Glasgow being declared.

On 4 April 2007, the BBC published the findings of a poll it had commissioned from ICM. The 1001 respondents were asked to rank a given list of issues, in the order which they thought "should be the priorities of the new parliament?" [9] [10] The respondents ranked the main issues as follows:

1. Schools/health

2. Police on streets

3. Council tax for 65s+

4. Local hospitals

5. Farming/fishing

6. Young offenders curfew

7. Free school meals

8. Buses/trains (not roads)

9. Scrap tuition fees

10. Community sentences

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Scottish Greens</span> Scottish political party

The Scottish Greens are a green political party in Scotland. The party has seven MSPs in the Scottish Parliament as of May 2021. As of the 2022 local elections, the party sits on 13 of the 32 Scottish local councils, with a total of 36 councillors. They held two ministerial posts in the first Yousaf government following a power-sharing agreement with the SNP from August 2021 until the end of the Bute House Agreement in April 2024, marking the first time Green Party politicians formed part of a government in the UK.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Scottish independence</span> Independence movement in Europe

Scottish independence is the idea of Scotland regaining its independence and once again becoming a sovereign state, independent from the United Kingdom. The term Scottish independence refers to the political movement that is campaigning to bring it about.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">John Swinney</span> First Minister of Scotland since 2024

John Ramsay Swinney is a Scottish politician who has served as First Minister of Scotland and Leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP) since May 2024. He previously served as the leader of the SNP from 2000 to 2004 as Leader of the Opposition, and held various roles within the Scottish Cabinet from 2007 to 2023 under First Ministers Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon. Swinney was Member of the Scottish Parliament (MSP) for North Tayside from 1999 to 2011 and, following boundary changes, has been MSP for Perthshire North since 2011. He was Member of Parliament (MP) for Tayside North from 1997 to 2001.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1997 Scottish devolution referendum</span> Measure creating a devolved Scottish Parliament

The Scottish devolution referendum of 1997 was a pre-legislative referendum held in Scotland on 11 September 1997 over whether there was support for the creation of a Scottish Parliament with devolved powers, and whether the Parliament should have tax-varying powers. The result was "Yes–Yes": a majority voted in favour of both proposals, and the Parliament was established following an election in 1999. Turnout for the referendum was 60.4%.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Robin Harper</span> British politician (born 1940)

Robin Charles Moreton Harper, is a Scottish politician, who was a Member of the Scottish Parliament (MSP) for the Lothians region (1999–2011).

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Unionism in Scotland</span> Overview of unionism in Scotland

Unionism in Scotland is a political movement which favours the continuation of the political union between Scotland and the other countries of the United Kingdom, and hence is opposed to Scottish independence. Scotland is one of four countries of the United Kingdom which has its own devolved government and Scottish Parliament, as well as representation in the UK Parliament. There are many strands of political Unionism in Scotland, some of which have ties to Unionism and Loyalism in Northern Ireland. The two main political parties in the UK — the Conservatives and Labour — both support Scotland remaining part of the UK.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Patrick Harvie</span> Co-Leader of the Scottish Green Party

Patrick Harvie is a Scottish politician who served as Minister for Zero Carbon Buildings, Active Travel and Tenants' Rights from 2021 to 2024. He has served as one of two co-leaders of the Scottish Greens since 2008, and is one of the first Green politicians in the UK to serve as a government minister. Harvie has been a Member of the Scottish Parliament (MSP) for the Glasgow region since 2003.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">English independence</span> Political movement in the United Kingdom

English independence is a political stance advocating secession of England from the United Kingdom. Support for secession of England has been influenced by the increasing devolution of political powers to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, where independence from the United Kingdom is a prominent subject of political debate.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Scottish Labour</span> Scottish wing of the UK Labour Party

Scottish Labour, officially the Scottish Labour Party, is the part of the UK Labour Party active in Scotland. Ideologically social democratic and unionist, it holds 22 of 129 seats in the Scottish Parliament and 2 of 59 Scottish seats in the House of Commons. It is represented by 262 of the 1,227 local councillors across Scotland. The Scottish Labour party has no separate Chief Whip at Westminster.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2007 Scottish Parliament election</span> Parliamentary election held in Scotland

The 2007 Scottish Parliament election was held on Thursday 3 May 2007 to elect members to the Scottish Parliament. It was the third general election to the devolved Scottish Parliament since it was created in 1999. Local elections in Scotland fell on the same day.

Full fiscal autonomy (FFA) – also known as devolution max, devo-max, or fiscal federalism – is a particular form of far-reaching devolution proposed for Scotland and for Wales. The term has come to describe a constitutional arrangement in which instead of receiving a block grant from His Majesty's Treasury as at present, the Scottish Parliament or the Senedd would receive all taxation levied in Scotland or Wales; it would be responsible for most spending in Scotland or Wales but make payments to the UK government to cover Scotland or Wales's share of the cost of providing certain UK-wide services, largely defence and foreign relations. Scottish/Welsh fiscal autonomy – stopping short of full political independence – is usually promoted by advocates of a federal United Kingdom.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Opinion polling for the 2015 United Kingdom general election</span>

In the run up to the general election on 7 May 2015, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2021 Scottish Parliament election</span> General election in Scotland

The 2021 Scottish Parliament election took place on 11 May 2021, under the provisions of the Scotland Act 1998. All 129 Members of the Scottish Parliament were elected in the sixth election since the parliament was re-established in 1999. The election was held alongside the Senedd election, English local elections, London Assembly and mayoral election and the Hartlepool by-election.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Joan McAlpine</span> Scottish journalist and politician (born 1962)

Joan McAlpine is a former Scottish journalist and former Scottish National Party politician. She was a Member of the Scottish Parliament (MSP) for the South Scotland region from 2011 to 2021. McAlpine is known for her opposition to reforming the Gender Recognition Act and for her views on sex and gender.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2016 Scottish Parliament election</span> Parliamentary election held in Scotland

The 2016 Scottish parliament election was held on Thursday, 5 May 2016 to elect 129 members to the Scottish Parliament. It was the fifth election held since the devolved parliament was established in 1999. It was the first parliamentary election in Scotland in which 16 and 17 year olds were eligible to vote, under the provisions of the Scottish Elections Act. It was also the first time the three largest parties were led by women.

This page lists the public opinion polls that were conducted in relation to the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, that was held on 18 September 2014. Overall, polls showed that support for a "No" vote was dominant until the end of August 2014, when support for a "Yes" vote gained momentum and the gap closed significantly, with at least one poll placing the "Yes" vote ahead. In the final week of the campaign, polls showed the "No" vote to be consistently but somewhat narrowly ahead. There were no exit polls although a YouGov post-election poll was published shortly after the polls closed. For the history of the campaign itself see 2014 Scottish independence referendum, Yes Scotland, and Better Together (campaign).

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2014 Scottish National Party leadership election</span> Leadership election in the Scottish National Party (SNP)

The 2014 Scottish National Party leadership election was held to choose the leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP) and First Minister of Scotland, following the resignation of Alex Salmond as first minister and leader. Nicola Sturgeon emerged as the only candidate and was elected unopposed as leader of the SNP.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Ash Regan</span> Scottish politician (born 1974)

Ashten Regan is a Scottish politician. She has been the Member of the Scottish Parliament (MSP) for Edinburgh Eastern since 2016. Initially elected to parliament for the Scottish National Party (SNP), she defected to the Alba Party. Regan served under First Minister Nicola Sturgeon as the minister for community safety from 2018 until she resigned in 2022 in protest against her government's Gender Recognition Reform bill.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Proposed second Scottish independence referendum</span> Possible future referendum

A second referendum on the independence of Scotland from the United Kingdom (UK) has been proposed by the Scottish Government. An independence referendum was first held on 18 September 2014, with 55% voting "No" to independence. The Scottish Government stated in its white paper for independence that voting Yes was a "once in a generation opportunity to follow a different path, and choose a new and better direction for our nation". Following the "No" vote, the cross party Smith Commission proposed areas that could be devolved to the Scottish Parliament; this led to the passing of the Scotland Act 2016, formalising new devolved policy areas in time for the 2016 Scottish Parliament election campaign.

In the run-up to the 2021 Scottish Parliament election, various organisations conducted opinion polls to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in this list. Most of the pollsters listed were members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abided by its disclosure rules.

References

  1. 1 2 "Labour turmoil as Scots back independence". The Sunday Times Scotland . 10 September 2006. Archived from the original on 10 March 2007.
  2. ↑ "YouGov / Sunday Times (Scotland) Survey Results" (PDF). YouGov. 7 September 2006. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2 November 2006.
  3. ↑ Allardyce, Jason (10 September 2006). "Support doubles for Scottish independence". The Sunday Times. Archived from the original on 12 March 2007.
  4. ↑ Davie, Edward (10 September 2006). "Support for Scottish independence rises". Epolitix. Archived from the original on 30 September 2007.
  5. ↑ Mulholland, Hélène; Tempest, Matthew (2 November 2006). "Majority in Scotland wants independence, says poll". The Guardian .
  6. ↑ Hennessy, Patrick; Kite, Melissa (27 November 2006). "Britain wants UK break up, poll shows" . The Daily Telegraph . Retrieved 27 January 2022.
  7. ↑ "Vital gains forecast for SNP in swing from Labour". The Scotsman . 1 November 2006. Archived from the original on 12 July 2012. Retrieved 29 November 2007.
  8. ↑ Miller, Bill (20 April 2007). "How SNP could win and lose at the same time" . The Times .
  9. ↑ "Voters get behind public services". BBC News . 4 April 2007.
  10. ↑ "Scottish Omnibus Fieldwork Dates: March 29th-31st 2007" (PDF). ICM Research.
This page is based on this Wikipedia article
Text is available under the CC BY-SA 4.0 license; additional terms may apply.
Images, videos and audio are available under their respective licenses.