Opinion polling on Welsh independence

Last updated

Opinion polling on Welsh independence is continually being carried out by various organisations to gauge public attitudes to independence. The dates for these opinion polls range from January 2007 to the present day. Polling was initially sporadic, but it has been carried out almost every month since January 2021. The question typically asked by pollsters is "Should Wales be an independent country?". [1] [2]

Contents

Public opinion

Summary

A graphical summary of yes/no independence polls, excluding non-standard questions.

Yes/No Independence polls

Date(s) conductedPolling organisation
& client		Sample
size		Should Wales be an
independent country?		LeadNotes
YesNoUndecided
2-8 September 2024 YouGov 120724%61%15%37%
5–7 June 2024 Redfield and Wilton Strategies 96033%57%10%24%
18–19 May 2024 Redfield and Wilton Strategies 90029%59%12%30%
23–24 March 2024 Redfield and Wilton Strategies 87830%58%11%28%
18 February 2024 Redfield and Wilton Strategies 87427%61%12%34%
24–26 January 2024 Redfield and Wilton Strategies 1,10030%59%11%29%
10-11 December 2023 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 1,08634%58%9%24%
4-7 December 2023 YouGov/Barn Cymru 1,00422%56%14%34%
12-13 November 2023 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 1,10033%56%12%23%
14-15 October 2023 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 95931%59%9%28%
1–6 September 2023 YouGov 22%56%13%34%
13–14 August 2023 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 1,06833%53%14%20%
14–16 July 2023 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 1,05032%58%10%26%
17–18 June 2023 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 1,00030%57%13%27%
12–17 May 2023 YouGov/Barn Cymru 1,06420%54%15%
14–15 May 2023 Redfield and Wilton Strategies 1,05832%58%11%
15–17 April 2023 Redfield and Wilton Strategies 1,25129%60%11%
17–23 Feb 2023 YouGov / WalesOnline 1,08318%55%16%
25 Nov – 1 Dec 2022 YouGov / Barn Cymru 1,04222%55%14%
21–25 November 2022 YouGov / YesCymru 1,03323%54%13%
20–22 September 2022 YouGov / Barn Cymru 1,01424%52%14%Age 16+
16–19 August 2022 YouGov / The Sunday Times 1,02530%48%13%18%Non-standard question: If Liz Truss became Prime Minister of the UK
16–19 August 2022 YouGov / The Sunday Times 1,02525%53%12%
12–16 June 2022 YouGov / ITV Wales 1,02025%50%25%
25 Feb – 1 March 2022 YouGov/ Barn Cymru 1,08621%53%26%Age 16+
5 May 2021 Savanta ComRes 1,00230%55%15%Taken with 29 April – 4 May 2021 poll, online
2–4 May 2021 YouGov / Welsh Barometer 1,07121%55%14%
29 April – 4 May 2021 Savanta ComRes 1,00227%58%14%Online
23–28 April 2021 Savanta ComRes 1,00242%49%8%46% (excluding "don't know"), the highest ever level of support. [3]
18–21 April 2021 YouGov 1,14222%54%24%Age 16+
9–19 April 2021 Opinium / Sky News 2,00528%52%19%
16–19 March 2021 Welsh Barometer Survey / YouGov 1,17422%55%23%Age 16+
18–22 February 2021 Savanta ComRes / ITV News 1,00335%55%10%39% (excluding "don't know"), the highest ever support at the time. [4] [5] Age 16+.
19–22 February 2021 WalesOnline / YouGov 1,05925%50%14%Age 16+
18–21 January 2021 The Sunday Times / YouGov 1,05923%52%25%Age 16+
11–14 January 2021 Welsh Barometer Survey / YouGov 1,01822%53%25%Age 16+
26–29 October 2020 Welsh Barometer Survey / YouGov 1,01323%53%25%Age 16+
24–27 August 2020 YesCymru / YouGov 1,04425%52%23%
29 July – 7 August 2020 YesCymru / YouGov 1,04426%55%19%Age 16+
29 May – 1 June 2020 ITV Wales / YouGov / Cardiff Uni 1,02125%54%21%
20–26 January 2020 Welsh Barometer Survey / YouGov 1,03721%57%22%Age 16+
6–9 December 2019 Welsh Barometer Survey / YouGov 1,02017%60%23%
22–25 November 2019 Welsh Barometer Survey / YouGov 1,11620%57%22%
31 October – 4 November 2019 Welsh Barometer Survey / YouGov 1,03222%57%21%
10–14 October 2019 Welsh Barometer Survey / YouGov 1,03221%57%23%
6–10 September 2019 Plaid Cymru / YouGov 1,03924%52%23%
6–10 September 2019 Plaid Cymru / YouGov 1,03933%48%20%Non-standard question: If an independent Wales was within the European Union
7–14 December 2018 Sky News Data: Wales 1,01417%67%16%
30 May – 6 June 2018 YouGov 2,01619%65%16%
July 2016 ITV Wales / YouGov 1,01015%65%20%
July 2016 ITV Wales / YouGov 1,01028%53%20%Non-standard question: If an independent Wales was within the European Union
July 2016 ITV Wales / YouGov 1,01019%61%21%Non-standard question: If Scotland left the UK
8–11 September 2014 ITV Wales / YouGov / Cardiff University >1,00017%70%13%The week before the Scottish independence referendum
April 2014 YouGov 1,00012%74%14%
March 2013 ITV Wales / YouGov Unknown10%62%28%Non-standard question: If Scotland left the UK
5–8 January 2007 BBC / Opinion Research Business 52719%69%13%Would you like the Union to continue as it is or would you like to see it come to an end?
If it were to end this would mean that Wales became an independent country.

"0–10" Independence polls – (Respondents asked to rate 0–10. 0–4 Against, 5 indifferent, 6–10 In Favour. "Don't Know" removed)

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation
& client		Sample sizeTotal
favourable		In favourIndifferentAgainstTotal
unfavourable
109876543210
10–15 May 2019 YesCymru / YouGov 1,13336%14%4%5%6%7%17%5%6%6%2%28%47%
9–12 May 2017 YesCymru / YouGov 1,00029%10%2%6%6%5%18%4%6%7%5%31%53%

By age (February 2023)

Age group [6] NoYesDo not knowLead
18–2441%20%16%21%
25–4944%18%23%26%
50–6459%22%12%37%
65+72%12%11%60%

Devolution extent polls

Date(s)
Conducted		Polling organisationSupport
independence (%)		Support more
powers for
the Senedd (%)		Support
status quo (%)		Support fewer
powers for
the Senedd (%)		Support abolition
of the Senedd (%)		Indifferent/Did
not reply/Other (%)
5-25 June 2023 [7] Beaufort Research / WalesOnline16232561713
12-17 May 2023 [8] YouGov / Barn Cymru13212072016
3-7 February 2023 [9] YouGov / Barn Cymru15202172016
25 November - 1 December 2022 [10] YouGov / Barn Cymru14212372014
20-22 September 2022 [10] YouGov17192171915
28 January – 21 February 2021 [11] BBC / ICM Unlimited1435273156
29 May – 1 June 2020 [12] ITV Wales & Cardiff University / YouGov16202452214
4–22 February 2020 [13] BBC / ICM1143252143
7–23 February 2019 [14] BBC / ICM746273134
December 2018 [15] SkyData840234187
February 2017 [16] BBC / ICM644293134
February 2016 [17] BBC / ICM643303134
February 2015 [18] BBC / ICM640334134
September 2014 [19] BBC / ICM349262126
February 2014 [20] BBC / ICM537283235
2013 [21] BBC / ICM936282204
2012 [21] BBC / ICM736292224
2011 [21] BBC / ICM11351817154
2010 [21] BBC / ICM11401318134

Side by side polls – Independence vs. No devolved government in Wales

Date(s)
conducted		Polling Organisation
& client		Sample sizeIndependence
(inc. sub-samples)		No devolved government
(inc. sub-samples)		Indifferent
/ no reply (%)
Total (%)Conservative(%)Labour(%)Lib Dem(%)Plaid Cymru(%)Total (%)Conservative (%)Labour (%)Lib Dem (%)Plaid Cymru (%)
29 May – 1 June 2020 ITV Wales / YouGov / Cardiff Uni 1,02133%12%45%39%87%45%79%35%53%4%21%

See also

Related Research Articles

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References

  1. ↑ "Welsh Independence Poll - Support Steadily Dropping?". Politics.co.uk. Retrieved 2023-08-07.
  2. ↑ "Welsh independence polls 2023". Statista. Retrieved 2023-08-07.
  3. ↑ "Savanta ComRes Wales Voting Intention –29 April 2021" (PDF).
  4. ↑ Axenderrie, Gareth (4 March 2021). "Polls chart rise of support for Welsh independence". The National Wales . Retrieved 4 March 2021.
  5. ↑ da Silva, Chantal (2021-03-04). "Highest ever support for Welsh independence, new poll shows". The Independent. Retrieved 2021-03-19.
  6. ↑ Hayward, Will (2023-03-01). "Support for Welsh independence at its lowest level for three years". WalesOnline. Retrieved 2023-03-04.
  7. ↑ Hayward, Will (2023-07-10). "Poll shows 40% of Welsh people want either independence or more powers for Wales". WalesOnline. Retrieved 2023-07-11.
  8. ↑ "YouGov / Barn Cymru Survey Results" (PDF).
  9. ↑ "YouGov / Barn Cymru Survey Results" (PDF).
  10. 1 2 "YouGov / Barn Cymru Survey Results" (PDF).
  11. ↑ "Voting attitudes and Senedd powers quizzed in poll for BBC Wales". BBC News. 28 February 2021. Retrieved 28 February 2021.
  12. ↑ Awan-Scully, Roger (5 June 2020). "Attitudes to Devolution and Welsh Independence". Cardiff University. Retrieved 5 June 2020.
  13. ↑ "St Davids Day Poll 2020". 1 March 2020 – via www.bbc.co.uk.
  14. ↑ "Attitudes to Brexit and economy polled". BBC News. 1 March 2019.
  15. ↑ Awan-Scully, Roger (20 December 2018). "Does Wales Want to Abolish the Assembly?". Cardiff University.
  16. ↑ "EU migrants should have skills, public tells BBC Wales poll". BBC News. 2017-03-01.
  17. ↑ "St David's Day Poll" (PDF). blogs.cardiff.ac.uk. 1 March 2016. Retrieved 2019-08-11.
  18. ↑ "ICM Poll for the BBC" (PDF). www.icmunlimited.com. 2016. Retrieved 2019-08-11.
  19. ↑ "'Record low' back Welsh independence - BBC/ICM poll". Wales Online. 2014-09-15. Retrieved 2014-09-19.
  20. ↑ "BBC Cymru Wales poll: Few in Wales back Scottish independence". BBC News. 28 February 2014. Retrieved 6 April 2014.
  21. 1 2 3 4 "Historical Polls". icmunlimited. Retrieved 2022-06-24.
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