Opinion polling on Welsh independence

Last updated

Opinion polling on Welsh independence is continually being carried out by various organisations to gauge public attitudes to independence. The dates for these opinion polls range from January 2007 to the present day. Polling was initially sporadic, but it has been carried out almost every month since January 2021. The question typically asked by pollsters is "Should Wales be an independent country?". [1] [2]

Contents

Public opinion

Summary

A graphical summary of yes/no independence polls, excluding non-standard questions.

Yes/No Independence polls

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation
& client		Sample
size		Should Wales be an independent country?LeadNotes
YesNoUndecided
23–24 March 2024 Redfield and Wilton Strategies 87830%58%11%28%
18 February 2024 Redfield and Wilton Strategies 87427%61%12%34%
24-26 January 2024 Redfield and Wilton Strategies 1,10030%59%11%29%
10-11 December 2023 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 1,08634%58%9%24%
4-7 December 2023 YouGov/Barn Cymru 1,00422%56%14%34%
12-13 November 2023 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 1,10033%56%12%23%
14-15 October 2023 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 95931%59%9%28%
1–6 September 2023 YouGov 22%56%13%34%
13–14 August 2023 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 1,06833%53%14%20%
14–16 July 2023 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 1,05032%58%10%26%
17–18 June 2023 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 1,00030%57%13%27%
12–17 May 2023 YouGov/Barn Cymru 1,06420%54%15%
14–15 May 2023 Redfield and Wilton Strategies 1,05832%58%11%
15–17 April 2023 Redfield and Wilton Strategies 1,25129%60%11%
17–23 Feb 2023 YouGov / WalesOnline 1,08318%55%16%
25 Nov – 1 Dec 2022 YouGov / Barn Cymru 1,04222%55%14%
21–25 November 2022 YouGov / YesCymru 1,03323%54%13%
20–22 September 2022 YouGov / Barn Cymru 1,01424%52%14%Age 16+
16–19 August 2022 YouGov / The Sunday Times 1,02530%48%13%18%Non-standard question:
If Liz Truss became Prime Minister of the UK
16–19 August 2022 YouGov / The Sunday Times 1,02525%53%12%
12–16 June 2022 YouGov / ITV Wales 1,02025%50%25%
25 Feb – 1 March 2022 YouGov/ Barn Cymru 1,08621%53%26%Age 16+
5 May 2021 Savanta ComRes 1,00230%55%15%Taken with 29 April – 4 May 2021 poll, online
2–4 May 2021 YouGov / Welsh Barometer 1,07121%55%14%
29 April – 4 May 2021 Savanta ComRes 1,00227%58%14%Online
23–28 April 2021 Savanta ComRes 1,00242%49%8%46% (excluding "don't know"), the highest ever level of support. [3]
18–21 April 2021 YouGov 1,14222%54%24%Age 16+
9–19 April 2021 Opinium / Sky News 2,00528%52%19%
16–19 March 2021 Welsh Barometer Survey / YouGov 1,17422%55%23%Age 16+
18–22 February 2021 Savanta ComRes / ITV News 1,00335%55%10%39% (excluding "don't know"), the highest ever support at the time. [4] [5] Age 16+.
19–22 February 2021 WalesOnline / YouGov 1,05925%50%14%Age 16+
18–21 January 2021 The Sunday Times / YouGov 1,05923%52%25%Age 16+
11–14 January 2021 Welsh Barometer Survey / YouGov 1,01822%53%25%Age 16+
26–29 October 2020 Welsh Barometer Survey / YouGov 1,01323%53%25%Age 16+
24–27 August 2020 YesCymru / YouGov 1,04425%52%23%
29 July – 7 August 2020 YesCymru / YouGov 1,04426%55%19%Age 16+
29 May – 1 June 2020 ITV Wales / YouGov / Cardiff Uni 1,02125%54%21%
20–26 January 2020 Welsh Barometer Survey / YouGov 1,03721%57%22%Age 16+
6–9 December 2019 Welsh Barometer Survey / YouGov 1,02017%60%23%
22–25 November 2019 Welsh Barometer Survey / YouGov 1,11620%57%22%
31 October – 4 November 2019 Welsh Barometer Survey / YouGov 1,03222%57%21%
10–14 October 2019 Welsh Barometer Survey / YouGov 1,03221%57%23%
6–10 September 2019 Plaid Cymru / YouGov 1,03924%52%23%
6–10 September 2019 Plaid Cymru / YouGov 1,03933%48%20%Non-standard question:
If an independent Wales was within the European Union
7–14 December 2018 Sky News Data: Wales 1,01417%67%16%
30 May – 6 June 2018 YouGov 2,01619%65%16%
July 2016 ITV Wales / YouGov 1,01015%65%20%
July 2016 ITV Wales / YouGov 1,01028%53%20%Non-standard question:
If an independent Wales was within the European Union
July 2016 ITV Wales / YouGov 1,01019%61%21%Non-standard question:
If Scotland left the UK
8–11 September 2014 ITV Wales / YouGov / Cardiff University >1,00017%70%13%The week before the Scottish independence referendum
April 2014 YouGov 1,00012%74%14%
March 2013 ITV Wales / YouGov Unknown10%62%28%Non-standard question: If Scotland left the UK
5–8 January 2007 BBC / Opinion Research Business 52719%69%13%Would you like the Union to continue as it is or would you like to see it come to an end?

If it were to end this would mean that Scotland (in Wales say “Wales”) became an independent country?

"0–10" Independence polls – (Respondents asked to rate 0–10. 0–4 Against, 5 indifferent, 6–10 In Favour. "Don't Know" removed)

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation
& client		Sample sizeTotal
favourable		In favourIndifferentAgainstTotal
unfavourable
109876543210
10–15 May 2019 YesCymru / YouGov 1,13336%14%4%5%6%7%17%5%6%6%2%28%47%
9–12 May 2017 YesCymru / YouGov 1,00029%10%2%6%6%5%18%4%6%7%5%31%53%

By age (February 2023)

Age group [6] NoYesDo not knowLead
18–2441%20%16%21%
25–4944%18%23%26%
50–6459%22%12%37%
65+72%12%11%60%

Devolution extent polls

Date(s)
Conducted		Polling organisationSupport
independence (%)		Support more
powers for
the Senedd (%)		Support
status quo (%)		Support fewer
powers for
the Senedd (%)		Support abolition
of the Senedd (%)		Indifferent/Did
not reply/Other (%)
5-25 June 2023 [7] Beaufort Research / WalesOnline16232561713
12-17 May 2023 [8] YouGov / Barn Cymru13212072016
3-7 February 2023 [9] YouGov / Barn Cymru15202172016
25 November - 1 December 2022 [10] YouGov / Barn Cymru14212372014
20-22 September 2022 [10] YouGov17192171915
28 January – 21 February 2021 [11] BBC / ICM Unlimited1435273156
29 May – 1 June 2020 [12] ITV Wales & Cardiff University / YouGov16202452214
4–22 February 2020 [13] BBC / ICM1143252143
7–23 February 2019 [14] BBC / ICM746273134
December 2018 [15] SkyData840234187
February 2017 [16] BBC / ICM644293134
February 2016 [17] BBC / ICM643303134
February 2015 [18] BBC / ICM640334134
September 2014 [19] BBC / ICM349262126
February 2014 [20] BBC / ICM537283235
2013 [21] BBC / ICM936282204
2012 [21] BBC / ICM736292224
2011 [21] BBC / ICM11351817154
2010 [21] BBC / ICM11401318134

Side by side polls – Independence vs. No devolved government in Wales

Date(s)
conducted		Polling Organisation
& client		Sample sizeIndependence
(inc. sub-samples)		No devolved government
(inc. sub-samples)		Indifferent
/ no reply (%)
Total (%)Conservative(%)Labour(%)Lib Dem(%)Plaid Cymru(%)Total (%)Conservative (%)Labour (%)Lib Dem (%)Plaid Cymru (%)
29 May – 1 June 2020 ITV Wales / YouGov / Cardiff Uni 1,02133%12%45%39%87%45%79%35%53%4%21%

See also

Related Research Articles

Plaid Cymru is a centre-left to left-wing, Welsh nationalist political party in Wales, committed to Welsh independence from the United Kingdom.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Welsh nationalism</span> Nationalism in Wales

Welsh nationalism emphasises and celebrates the distinctiveness of Welsh culture and Wales as a nation or country. Welsh nationalism may also include calls for further autonomy or self-determination, which includes Welsh devolution, meaning increased powers for the Senedd, or full Welsh independence.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Wales Green Party</span> Political party in Wales

The Wales Green Party is a semi-autonomous political party within the Green Party of England and Wales (GPEW). It covers Wales, and is the only regional party with semi-autonomous status within the GPEW. The Wales Green Party puts up candidates for council, Senedd, and UK Parliament seats.

A devolved English parliament is a proposed institution that would give separate decision-making powers to representatives for voters in England, similar to the representation given by the Senedd, the Scottish Parliament and the Northern Ireland Assembly. A devolved English parliament is an issue in the politics of the United Kingdom.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">English independence</span> Political movement in the United Kingdom

English independence is a political stance advocating secession of England from the United Kingdom. Support for secession of England has been influenced by the increasing devolution of political powers to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, where independence from the United Kingdom is a prominent subject of political debate.

Welsh republicanism or republicanism in Wales is the political ideology that advocates for Wales to be governed by a republican system, as opposed to the monarchy of the United Kingdom.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Welsh independence</span> Welsh political philosophy

Welsh independence is the political movement advocating for Wales to become a sovereign state, independent from the United Kingdom.

Full fiscal autonomy (FFA) – also known as devolution max, devo-max, or fiscal federalism – is a particular form of far-reaching devolution proposed for Scotland and for Wales. The term has come to describe a constitutional arrangement in which instead of receiving a block grant from His Majesty's Treasury as at present, the Scottish Parliament or the Senedd would receive all taxation levied in Scotland or Wales; it would be responsible for most spending in Scotland or Wales but make payments to the UK government to cover Scotland or Wales's share of the cost of providing certain UK-wide services, largely defence and foreign relations. Scottish/Welsh fiscal autonomy – stopping short of full political independence – is usually promoted by advocates of a federal United Kingdom.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Opinion polling for the 2015 United Kingdom general election</span>

In the run up to the general election on 7 May 2015, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.

This page lists the public opinion polls that were conducted in relation to the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, that was held on 18 September 2014. Overall, polls showed that support for a "No" vote was dominant until the end of August 2014, when support for a "Yes" vote gained momentum and the gap closed significantly, with at least one poll placing the "Yes" vote ahead. In the final week of the campaign, polls showed the "No" vote to be consistently but somewhat narrowly ahead. There were no exit polls although a YouGov post-election poll was published shortly after the polls closed. For the history of the campaign itself see 2014 Scottish independence referendum, Yes Scotland, and Better Together (campaign).

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Unionism in Wales</span> Overview of unionism in Wales

Unionism in Wales is the political view that supports a political union between Wales and the other countries of the United Kingdom. As well as the current state of the UK, unionism may also include support for Federalism in the United Kingdom and a United Kingdom Confederation.

In the run-up to the general election on 8 June 2017, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2021 Senedd election</span> General election held in Wales on 6 May 2021

The 2021 Senedd election took place on Thursday 6 May 2021 to elect 60 members to the Senedd. It was the sixth devolved general election since the Senedd was established in 1999. The election was held alongside the Scottish Parliament election, English local elections, London Assembly and mayoral election and the Hartlepool by-election.

Prior to the 2019 United Kingdom general election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in this list. Most of the pollsters listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules. Opinion polling about attitudes to the leaders of various political parties can be found in a separate article.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">YesCymru</span> Political campaign in Wales, United Kingdom

YesCymru is a non party-political campaign for an independent Wales. The organisation was formed in summer 2014 and officially launched on 20 February 2016 in Cardiff. In 2022 it became a private company limited by guarantee without share capital.

In the run-up to the 2021 Senedd election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in this list. Most of the pollsters listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Welsh fiscal balance</span> Gap between government spending in Wales and local tax revenue

From 1999 to 2022 Wales has had a negative fiscal balance, due to public spending in Wales exceeding tax revenue. For the 2018–19 fiscal year, the fiscal deficit was about 19.4 percent of Wales's estimated GDP, compared to 2 percent for the United Kingdom as a whole. All UK nations and regions except for East, South East England and London have a deficit. Wales' fiscal deficit per capita of £4,300 is the second highest of the economic regions, after the Northern Ireland fiscal deficit, which is nearly £5,000 per capita.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Welsh devolution</span> Transfer of legislative power to Welsh authorities from UK government

Welsh devolution is the transfer of legislative power for self-governance to Wales by the Government of the United Kingdom.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Proposed Welsh independence referendum</span> Political proposal

A referendum on Welsh independence from the United Kingdom (UK) has been proposed by pro-independence supporters, including independence campaign group YesCymru, pro-independence political party Plaid Cymru and other groups and individuals. These follow similar calls for a proposed second Scottish independence referendum. Pro-independence party Plaid Cymru has pledged to hold a referendum should they win a majority of seats in the Senedd.

There have been calls for further Welsh devolution, increasing the autonomy for Wales, since the Welsh legislature of the Senedd was founded following the 1997 Welsh devolution referendum.

References

  1. ↑ "Welsh Independence Poll - Support Steadily Dropping?". Politics.co.uk. Retrieved 2023-08-07.
  2. ↑ "Welsh independence polls 2023". Statista. Retrieved 2023-08-07.
  3. ↑ "Savanta ComRes Wales Voting Intention –29 April 2021" (PDF).
  4. ↑ Axenderrie, Gareth (4 March 2021). "Polls chart rise of support for Welsh independence". The National Wales . Retrieved 4 March 2021.
  5. ↑ da Silva, Chantal (2021-03-04). "Highest ever support for Welsh independence, new poll shows". The Independent. Retrieved 2021-03-19.
  6. ↑ Hayward, Will (2023-03-01). "Support for Welsh independence at its lowest level for three years". WalesOnline. Retrieved 2023-03-04.
  7. ↑ Hayward, Will (2023-07-10). "Poll shows 40% of Welsh people want either independence or more powers for Wales". WalesOnline. Retrieved 2023-07-11.
  8. ↑ "YouGov / Barn Cymru Survey Results" (PDF).
  9. ↑ "YouGov / Barn Cymru Survey Results" (PDF).
  10. 1 2 "YouGov / Barn Cymru Survey Results" (PDF).
  11. ↑ "Voting attitudes and Senedd powers quizzed in poll for BBC Wales". BBC News. 28 February 2021. Retrieved 28 February 2021.
  12. ↑ Awan-Scully, Roger (5 June 2020). "Attitudes to Devolution and Welsh Independence". Cardiff University. Retrieved 5 June 2020.
  13. ↑ "St Davids Day Poll 2020". 1 March 2020 – via www.bbc.co.uk.
  14. ↑ "Attitudes to Brexit and economy polled". BBC News. 1 March 2019.
  15. ↑ Awan-Scully, Roger (20 December 2018). "Does Wales Want to Abolish the Assembly?". Cardiff University.
  16. ↑ "EU migrants should have skills, public tells BBC Wales poll". BBC News. 2017-03-01.
  17. ↑ "St David's Day Poll" (PDF). blogs.cardiff.ac.uk. 1 March 2016. Retrieved 2019-08-11.
  18. ↑ "ICM Poll for the BBC" (PDF). www.icmunlimited.com. 2016. Retrieved 2019-08-11.
  19. ↑ "'Record low' back Welsh independence - BBC/ICM poll". Wales Online. 2014-09-15. Retrieved 2014-09-19.
  20. ↑ "BBC Cymru Wales poll: Few in Wales back Scottish independence". BBC News. 28 February 2014. Retrieved 6 April 2014.
  21. 1 2 3 4 "Historical Polls". icmunlimited. Retrieved 2022-06-24.
This page is based on this Wikipedia article
Text is available under the CC BY-SA 4.0 license; additional terms may apply.
Images, videos and audio are available under their respective licenses.