Opinion polling on Scottish independence is continually being carried out by various organisations. This article concerns the nearly 300 polls carried out since the 2014 Scottish independence referendum. Polling conducted before the referendum can be found here. Polls listed here, except as noted, are by members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.
The main table includes primarily those polls which ask the same question as the 2014 referendum: "Should Scotland be an Independent Country?". Other tables reflect different questions on independence, which may produce different results. Any factors that might impact the poll result, such as excluding 16 and 17-year-old voters, are recorded in the 'Notes' column. The table also lists some events that may have impacted on polls including Brexit, COVID-19 and party leadership changes.
Polls in the main table, using the same question, still show systematic differences between different polling organisations. Therefore to discern trends it is helpful to compare a poll with previous results from same pollster.
Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Should Scotland be an independent country? | Lead | Notes | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | No | Undecided | |||||
17-24 Dec 2024 | Find Out Now/The National | 1,774 | 50% | 45% | 5% | 5% | [a] |
4-6 Dec 2024 | Norstat/The Sunday Times | 1,013 | 51% | 43% | 5% | 8% | |
1-15 Nov 2024 | Survation/Progress Scotland | 3,016 | 44% | 47% | 9% | 3% | |
30 Oct-1 Nov 2024 | Norstat/The Sunday Times | 1,013 | 47% | 47% | 6% | Tied | |
16-23 Oct 2024 | Find Out Now/Alba Party | 1,058 | 48% | 45% | 7% | 3% | [a] |
10-13 Sep 2024 | Survation/Progress Scotland | 2,059 | 42% | 49% | 9% | 7% | |
8-13 Sep 2024 | More in Common/ Sunday Times | 949 | 44% | 48% | 8% | 4% | |
5-11 Sep 2024 | Opinium/The Times | 1,028 | 45% | 47% | 8% | 2% | |
29 Aug-3 Sep 2024 | YouGov | 1,063 | 40% | 51% | 9% | 11% | [b] [c] |
20-22 Aug 2024 | Norstat/The Sunday Times | 1,011 | 45% | 48% | 7% | 3% | |
4 July 2024 | 2024 United Kingdom general election | ||||||
26-27 Jun 2024 | Redfield and Wilton | 1,200 | 46% | 48% | 6% | 2% | |
24-26 Jun 2024 | Norstat/The Sunday Times | 1,258 | 47% | 47% | 6% | Tied | |
21-26 Jun 2024 | Survation / Ballot Box Scotland | 1,022 | 42% | 49% | 9% | 7% | |
20-25 Jun 2024 | YouGov | 1,059 | 39% | 51% | 9% | 11% | [b] |
11-14 Jun 2024 | Norstat/The Sunday Times | 1,050 | 46% | 48% | 6% | 2% | |
3-9 Jun 2024 | Ipsos | 1,150 | 49% | 47% | 4% | 2% | |
3-7 Jun 2024 | YouGov | 1,068 | 42% | 48% | 10% | 6% | [b] |
1-2 Jun 2024 | Redfield and Wilton | 1,000 | 46% | 49% | 5% | 3% | |
24-28 May 2024 | Savanta/The Scotsman | 1,067 | 44% | 48% | 8% | 4% | |
23-27 May 2024 | Survation/True North | 1,026 | 41% | 49% | 10% | 8% | |
13-17 May 2024 | YouGov | 1,114 | 41% | 49% | 10% | 8% | [b] |
8-9 May 2024 | Redfield and Wilton | 1,078 | 44% | 48% | 8% | 4% | |
6–8 May 2024 | John Swinney becomes leader of the SNP and then First Minister of Scotland | ||||||
3-8 May 2024 | Savanta/The Scotsman | 1,080 | 44% | 48% | 8% | 4% | |
30 Apr-3 May 2024 | Norstat/The Sunday Times | 1,014 | 45% | 49% | 6% | 4% | |
26-29 Apr 2024 | YouGov | 1,043 | 42% | 48% | 10% | 6% | [b] |
9–12 Apr 2024 | Norstat/The Sunday Times | 1,086 | 44% | 51% | 4% | 7% | |
6–7 Apr 2024 | Redfield and Wilton | 1,000 | 44% | 42% | 14% | 2% | |
25 Apr – 2 May 2024 | YouGov | 1,100 | 42% | 49% | 9% | 8% | [b] |
10–11 Mar 2024 | Redfield and Wilton | 1,000 | 43% | 46% | 11% | 3% | |
3–4 Feb 2024 | Redfield and Wilton | 1,000 | 43% | 47% | 10% | 4% | |
25–31 Jan 2024 | Ipsos | 1,005 | 50% | 47% | 5% | 6% | |
23–25 Jan 2024 | Survation/True North | 1,029 | 43% | 47% | 10% | 4% | |
22–25 Jan 2024 | Norstat/The Sunday Times | 1,007 | 47% | 48% | 4% | 1% | |
11–24 Jan 2024 | Find Out Now | 842 | 49% | 45% | 6% | 4% | |
9–11 Jan 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,040 | 46% | 47% | 7% | 1% | |
26–27 Nov 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,054 | 46% | 48% | 6% | 2% | |
20–26 Nov 2023 | Ipsos Scotland | 1,000 | 51% | 43% | 5% | 8% | |
29–30 Oct 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,092 | 45% | 50% | 5% | 5% | |
20–25 Oct 2023 | YouGov/Scottish Opinion Monitor (Scoop) | 1,244 | 38% | 46% | 11% | 8% | [d] |
6–18 Oct 2023 | Focaldata/Scotland in Union | 1,037 | 40% | 48% | 9% | 8% | [e] |
6–11 Oct 2023 | Savanta/The Scotsman | 1,002 | 45% | 47% | 8% | 2% | |
2–5 Oct 2023 | Panelbase | 1,022 | 45% | 49% | 6% | 4% | |
4–5 Oct 2023 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 1,095 | 46% | 48% | 6% | 2% | |
8–12 Sep 2023 | YouGov | 1,103 | 42% | 48% | 10% | 5% | [b] |
5–14 Sep 2023 | Opinium/Tony Blair Institute | 1,004 | 45% | 41% | 9% | 4% | [a] |
5–11 Sep 2023 | Find Out Now/Independent Voices | 1,402 | 49% | 46% | 4% | 4% | [a] |
2–4 Sep 2023 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 1,100 | 44% | 49% | 6% | 5% | |
15–18 Aug 2023 | Survation | 1,002 | 43% | 47% | 10% | 4% | |
3–8 Aug 2023 | YouGov | 1,086 | 45% | 47% | 9% | 2% | [b] |
5–6 Aug 2023 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 1,050 | 45% | 48% | 7% | 3% | |
1–2 Jul 2023 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 1,030 | 45% | 49% | 6% | 4% | |
26–29 Jun 2023 | Yougov | 1,100 | 40% | 50% | 10% | 10% | [b] |
23–28 Jun 2023 | Survation | 1,915 | 42% | 47% | 10% | 5% | |
13–20 Jun 2023 | Find Out Now/Independent Voices | 1,035 | 48% | 45% | 7% | 3% | [a] |
12–15 Jun 2023 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,007 | 44% | 50% | 6% | 6% | |
9–14 Jun 2023 | Savanta/The Scotsman | 1,018 | 46% | 47% | 7% | 1% | |
9–13 Jun 2023 | YouGov/Scottish Opinion Monitor (Scoop) | 1,244 | 36% | 46% | 11% | 10% | |
7–12 Jun 2023 | Find Out Now/Alba Party | 558 | 43% | 39% | 11% | 4% | [f] [g] [a] |
3–5 Jun 2023 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 1,466 | 43% | 50% | 7% | 7% | |
15–21 May 2023 | Ipsos/STV | 1,100 | 51% | 45% | 4% | 6% | |
27 Apr – 3 May 2023 | Survation/True North | 1,009 | 44% | 47% | 9% | 3% | |
30 Apr – 2 May 2023 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 1,244 | 42% | 52% | 6% | 10% | |
17–20 Apr 2023 | YouGov/ The Times | 1,032 | 42% | 48% | 10% | 6% | [b] |
29 Mar – 3 Apr 2023 | Survation | 1,007 | 42% | 47% | 10% | 5% | |
31 Mar – 1 Apr 2023 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 1,000 | 44% | 50% | 6% | 6% | |
28–31 Mar 2023 | Savanta/Scotsman | 1,009 | 45% | 47% | 8% | 2% | |
28–30 Mar 2023 | Panelbase/ The Sunday Times | 1,089 | 46% | 49% | 5% | 3% | |
27–29 Mar 2023 | Humza Yousaf becomes leader of the SNP and then First Minister of Scotland | ||||||
9–13 Mar 2023 | YouGov/Sky News | 1,002 | 41% | 49% | 10% | 8% | [b] |
8–10 Mar 2023 | Survation/DC Thomson | 1,037 | 40% | 48% | 12% | 8% | [a] |
7–10 Mar 2023 | Panelbase/Scot Goes Pop | 1,013 | 45% | 49% | 5% | 4% | |
1–9 Mar 2023 | Find Out Now/Scot Goes Pop | 1,266 | 50% | 46% | 4% | 4% | |
2–5 Mar 2023 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies [1] | 1,050 | 42% | 51% | 8% | 9% | |
22–23 Feb 2023 | TechneUK | 502 | 39% | 47% | 14% | 8% | [h] [a] |
17–20 Feb 2023 | YouGov/The Times | 1,017 | 42% | 49% | 9% | 7% | [b] |
15–17 Feb 2023 | Savanta/The Scotsman | 1,004 | 44% | 46% | 9% | 2% | |
15 Feb 2023 | Nicola Sturgeon announces her intention to resign as First Minister of Scotland | ||||||
10–15 Feb 2023 | YouGov/YouGov/Scottish Opinion Monitor (Scoop) | 1,239 | 40% | 48% | 8% | 8% | |
1–7 Feb 2023 | Survation | 1,070 | 44% | 45% | 11% | 1% | |
6–13 Feb 2023 | Panelbase/Believe in Scotland | 2,006 | 44% | 48% | 8% | 4% | |
26 Jan – 3 Feb 2023 | Lord Ashcroft | 2,105 | 37% | 48% | 12% | 11% | [i] |
23–26 Jan 2023 | YouGov/The Times | 1,088 | 42% | 48% | 10% | 6% | [b] |
11–18 Jan 2023 | Find Out Now/The National | 1,094 | 52% | 44% | 3% | 8% | |
17 Jan 2023 | UK Government blocks Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill by invoking Section 35 of the Scotland Act 1998 | ||||||
10–12 Jan 2023 | Survation/TrueNorth | 1,002 | 41% | 47% | 11% | 6% | |
16–21 Dec 2022 | Savanta/The Scotsman | 1,048 | 44% | 46% | 9% | 2% | |
12–16 Dec 2022 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,004 | 49% | 45% | 6% | 4% | |
6–9 Dec 2022 | YouGov/The Times | 1,090 | 47% | 42% | 8% | 5% | |
1–8 Dec 2022 | Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus | 1,094 | 51% | 43% | 6% | 8% | |
28 Nov–5 Dec 2022 | Ipsos/STV | 1,065 | 53% | 42% | 4% | 11% | |
26–27 Nov 2022 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 1,000 | 49% | 45% | 5% | 4% | |
22–25 Nov 2022 | YouGov/YouGov/Scottish Opinion Monitor (Scoop) | 1,210 | 43% | 42% | 8% | 1% | |
23 Nov 2022 | Supreme Court rules the Scottish Parliament requires consent of the UK Government to legislate a second independence referendum | ||||||
25 Oct 2022 | Rishi Sunak becomes Prime Minister of the United Kingdom | ||||||
20 Oct 2022 | Liz Truss announces her intention to resign as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom | ||||||
13–19 Oct 2022 | Ipsos | 2,086 | 50% | 43% | 4% | 7% | [j] |
7–10 Oct 2022 | Panelbase/Alba Party | 1,018 | 46% | 49% | 5% | 3% | |
5–7 Oct 2022 | Panelbase/Business for Scotland | 1,017 | 47% | 47% | 6% | Tied | |
30 Sep–4 Oct 2022 | YouGov/The Times | 1,067 | 43% | 45% | 7% | 2% | |
30 Sep–4 Oct 2022 | Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman | 1,029 | 45% | 46% | 8% | 1% | |
14–16 Sep 2022 | Deltapoll/Sun in Scotland | 659 | 42% | 47% | 7% | 5% | [k] |
8 Sep 2022 | Elizabeth II dies and is succeeded by her son, Charles III | ||||||
6 Sep 2022 | Liz Truss becomes Prime Minister of the United Kingdom | ||||||
17–19 Aug 2022 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,133 | 46% | 48% | 6% | 2% | |
7 July 2022 | Boris Johnson announces his intention to resign as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom | ||||||
29 Jun–1 Jul 2022 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,010 | 48% | 47% | 5% | 1% | |
29–30 Jun 2022 | Techne UK | 501 | 39% | 45% | 15% | 6% | [l] [a] |
28 Jun 2022 | Nicola Sturgeon announces her intention to hold an independence referendum on 19 October 2023 | ||||||
23–28 Jun 2022 | Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman | 1,029 | 44% | 46% | 10% | 2% | |
23–29 May 2022 | Ipsos/STV | 1,000 | 45% | 46% | 8% | 1% | |
18–23 May 2022 | YouGov/The Times | 1,115 | 38% | 46% | 11% | 8% | |
5 May 2022 | 2022 Scottish local elections | ||||||
26 Apr–3 May 2022 | Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman | 1,010 | 45% | 47% | 7% | 2% | |
26–29 Apr 2022 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,009 | 47% | 49% | 5% | 2% | |
25–31 Mar 2022 | BMG/Herald | 1,012 | 43% | 49% | 8% | 6% | |
25–31 Mar 2022 | YouGov/TheseIslands | 519 | 39% | 44% | 13% | 5% | [m] |
24–28 Mar 2022 | Survation/Ballot Box Scotland | 1,002 | 42% | 47% | 11% | 5% | |
10–16 Mar 2022 | Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman | 1,008 | 44% | 49% | 7% | 5% | |
24–28 Feb 2022 | Savanta ComRes/The Economist | 1,651 | 45% | 46% | 9% | 1% | |
24 Feb 2022 | 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine | ||||||
3–9 Feb 2022 | Ipsos | 1,163 | 50% | 43% | 6% | 7% | [n] |
14–18 Jan 2022 | Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman | 1,004 | 46% | 46% | 8% | Tied | |
15–22 Dec 2021 | Opinium/Daily Record | 1,328 | 44% | 44% | 12% | Tied | [a] |
22–29 Nov 2021 | Ipsos MORI/STV | 1,107 | 52% | 43% | 4% | 9% | |
18–22 Nov 2021 | YouGov/The Times | 1,060 | 40% | 46% | 14% | 6% | |
9–12 Nov 2021 | Panelbase/SundayTimes | 1,781 | 45% | 47% | 8% | 2% | |
22–28 Oct 2021 | Savanta ComRes/Scotsman | 1,005 | 45% | 48% | 7% | 3% | |
20–26 Oct 2021 | Panelbase/Scot Goes Pop | 1,001 | 44% | 50% | 5% | 6% | |
18 Sep 2021 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies/Politico | 1,000 | 44% | 47% | 9% | 3% | |
6–10 Sep 2021 | Panelbase/SundayTimes | 2,003 | 45% | 49% | 6% | 4% | |
3–9 Sep 2021 | Savanta ComRes Sunday Times | 1,016 | 45% | 48% | 7% | 3% | |
1–8 Sep 2021 | Stack Data Strategy/UKonward | 1,007 | 45% | 49% | 6% | 4% | |
3–8 Sep 2021 | Opinium/Sky News | 1,014 | 44% | 43% | 13% | 1% | |
4–5 Aug 2021 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 1,000 | 44% | 47% | 9% | 3% | |
16–24 Jun 2021 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,287 | 45% | 48% | 7% | 3% | |
11–14 May 2021 | Savanta ComRes/Scotland on Sunday | 1,003 | 43% | 49% | 8% | 6% | |
7–8 May 2021 | Stack Data/Our Scottish Future | 1,000 | 48% | 48% | 4% | Tied | [o] |
6 May 2021 | 2021 Scottish Parliament election | ||||||
30 Apr–4 May 2021 | Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman | 1,001 | 42% | 50% | 8% | 8% | |
2–4 May 2021 | YouGov/The Times | 1,144 | 41% | 46% | 13% | 5% | |
30 Apr–4 May 2021 | Survation/DC Thomson | 1,008 | 43% | 47% | 10% | 4% | |
28 Apr–3 May 2021 | Opinium/Sky News | 1,015 | 45% | 45% | 8% | Tied | |
30 Apr–3 May 2021 | Ipsos MORI/STV | 1,502 | 47% | 47% | 6% | Tied | |
28–30 Apr 2021 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,096 | 48% | 45% | 6% | 3% | |
27–30 Apr 2021 | BMG/Herald | 1,023 | 47% | 47% | 7% | Tied | |
23–27 Apr 2021 | Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman | 1,001 | 42% | 49% | 8% | 7% | |
23–26 Apr 2021 | Survation/Good Morning Britain | 1,008 | 42% | 47% | 11% | 5% | |
21–26 Apr 2021 | Panelbase/Scot Goes Pop | 1,075 | 47% | 48% | 6% | 1% | |
21–23 Apr 2021 | Survation/These Islands | 1,006 | 44% | 46% | 10% | 2% | |
20–22 Apr 2021 | Survation/DC Thomson | 1,037 | 44% | 45% | 11% | 1% | |
16–20 Apr 2021 | Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman | 1,001 | 44% | 48% | 8% | 4% | |
16–20 Apr 2021 | YouGov/The Times | 1,204 | 39% | 45% | 16% | 6% | |
7–19 Apr 2021 | Lord Ashcroft | 2,017 | 44% | 45% | 11% | 1% | [i] |
9–12 Apr 2021 | Panelbase/Believe in Scotland | 1,002 | 48% | 46% | 6% | 2% | |
2–7 Apr 2021 | Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman | 1,007 | 45% | 45% | 9% | Tied | |
1–6 Apr 2021 | Opinium/Sky News | 1,023 | 47% | 45% | 6% | 2% | |
29 Mar–4 Apr 2021 | Ipsos MORI/STV | 1,038 | 49% | 45% | 6% | 4% | |
30 Mar–1 Apr 2021 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,009 | 48% | 47% | 5% | 1% | |
29–30 Mar 2021 | Survation/DC Thomson | 1,021 | 45% | 44% | 11% | 1% | |
23–26 Mar 2021 | Find Out Now/Daily Express | 1,022 | 48% | 44% | 8% | 4% | |
16–19 Mar 2021 | BMG/Herald | 1,021 | 49% | 46% | 5% | 3% | |
11–18 Mar 2021 | Survation/DC Thomson | 2,047 | 43% | 45% | 12% | 2% | |
11–16 Mar 2021 | Opinium/Sky News | 1,096 | 45% | 43% | 8% | 2% | |
5–10 Mar 2021 | Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman | 1,009 | 45% | 47% | 8% | 2% | |
5–9 Mar 2021 | Hanbury Strategy [ permanent dead link ] | 1,502 | 50% | 43% | 8% | 6% | |
4–8 Mar 2021 | YouGov/The Times | 1,100 | 41% | 43% | 14% | 2% | |
4–5 Mar 2021 | Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman | 1,015 | 43% | 46% | 10% | 3% | [p] |
3–5 Mar 2021 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,013 | 46% | 47% | 7% | 1% | |
26 Feb–4 Mar 2021 | Savanta ComRes/Daily Express | 1,004 | 43% | 45% | 12% | 2% | |
12 Feb–1 Mar 2021 | Hanbury Strategy [ permanent dead link ] | 3,946 | 52% | 41% | 7% | 11% | |
27 Feb 2021 | Anas Sarwar becomes leader of Scottish Labour | ||||||
25–26 Feb 2021 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,011 | 43% | 44% | 13% | 1% | |
18–22 Feb 2021 | Savanta ComRes/ITV News | 1,008 | 48% | 44% | 8% | 4% | |
15–21 Feb 2021 | Ipsos MORI/STV | 1,031 | 48% | 44% | 7% | 4% | |
4–9 Feb 2021 | Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman | 1,002 | 43% | 46% | 11% | 3% | [q] |
19–22 Jan 2021 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,206 | 49% | 44% | 7% | 5% | |
14 Jan 2021 | Richard Leonard resigns as leader of Scottish Labour | ||||||
11–13 Jan 2021 | Survation/Scot Goes Pop | 1,020 | 45% | 43% | 12% | 2% | |
8–13 Jan 2021 | Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman | 1,016 | 47% | 43% | 10% | 4% | [q] |
31 Dec 2020 | The post-Brexit transition period ends | ||||||
11–15 Dec 2020 | Savanta ComRes/The Scotsman | 1,013 | 49% | 39% | 12% | 10% | [q] |
8 Dec 2020 | COVID-19 vaccination in the United Kingdom commences | ||||||
2–7 Dec 2020 | Survation | 1,018 | 44% | 42% | 14% | 2% | |
20–26 Nov 2020 | Ipsos MORI/STV | 1,006 | 51% | 41% | 8% | 10% | |
5–11 Nov 2020 | Panelbase/Scot Goes Pop | 1,020 | 51% | 40% | 8% | 11% | |
6–10 Nov 2020 | YouGov | 1,089 | 43% | 42% | 10% | 1% | |
28 Oct–3 Nov 2020 | Survation | 1,071 | 47% | 40% | 13% | 7% | |
2–9 Oct 2020 | Ipsos MORI/STV | 1,045 | 52% | 39% | 9% | 13% | |
9 Oct 2020 | Savanta ComRes Archived 28 September 2021 at the Wayback Machine | 1,003 | 47% | 42% | 11% | 5% | |
25 Sep–5 Oct 2020 | Survation/Progress Scotland | 2,093 | 49% | 42% | 9% | 7% | [r] |
17–21 Sep 2020 | JL Partners | 1,016 | 51% | 40% | 7% | 11% | [s] |
2–7 Sep 2020 | Survation | 1,018 | 46% | 40% | 13% | 6% | |
12–18 Aug 2020 | Panelbase/Business for Scotland | 1,011 | 51% | 42% | 7% | 9% | |
6–13 Aug 2020 | Savanta ComRes | 1,008 | 49% | 42% | 9% | 7% | |
6–10 Aug 2020 | YouGov/The Times | 1,142 | 45% | 40% | 9% | 5% | |
5 Aug 2020 | Douglas Ross becomes leader of the Scottish Conservatives | ||||||
30 Jul 2020 | Jackson Carlaw resigns as leader of the Scottish Conservatives | ||||||
30 Jun–3 Jul 2020 | Panelbase/Sunday Times Archived 7 July 2020 at the Wayback Machine | 1,026 | 50% | 43% | 7% | 7% | |
15–19 Jun 2020 | Panelbase/Business for Scotland | 1,070 | 50% | 43% | 7% | 7% | |
1–5 Jun 2020 | Panelbase/Scot Goes Pop Archived 12 June 2020 at the Wayback Machine | 1,022 | 48% | 45% | 8% | 3% | |
1–5 May 2020 | Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland | 1,086 | 46% | 46% | 7% | Tied | |
24–26 Mar 2020 | Panelbase/Sunday Times Archived 8 May 2020 at the Wayback Machine | 1,023 | 46% | 47% | 7% | 1% | |
1 March 2020 | COVID-19 pandemic confirmed to have spread to Scotland | ||||||
14 Feb 2020 | Jackson Carlaw becomes leader of the Scottish Conservatives | ||||||
7–14 Feb 2020 | YouGov/Hanbury Strategy | 2,587 | 45% | 46% | 8% | 1% | [a] [t] |
31 Jan 2020 | The United Kingdom leaves the European Union | ||||||
28–31 Jan 2020 | Panelbase/Scot Goes Pop Archived 28 February 2020 at the Wayback Machine | 1,016 | 49% | 46% | 6% | 3% | |
22–27 Jan 2020 | YouGov | 1,039 | 43% | 42% | 10% | 1% | |
20–22 Jan 2020 | Survation/Progress Scotland | 1,019 | 45% | 45% | 10% | Tied | |
12 Dec 2019 | 2019 United Kingdom general election | ||||||
10–11 Dec 2019 | Survation/The Courier | 1,012 | 46% | 47% | 7% | 1% | |
3–6 Dec 2019 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,020 | 44% | 50% | 6% | 6% | |
3–6 Dec 2019 | YouGov/The Times | 1,008 | 38% | 48% | 12% | 10% | |
19–25 Nov 2019 | Ipsos MORI/STV | 1,046 | 48% | 48% | 4% | Tied | |
20–22 Nov 2019 | Panelbase/Sunday Times Archived 25 November 2019 at the Wayback Machine | 1,009 | 45% | 47% | 7% | 2% | |
9–11 Oct 2019 | Panelbase/Sunday Times Archived 29 August 2022 at the Wayback Machine | 1,003 | 46% | 47% | 7% | 1% | |
30 Sep–9 Oct 2019 | Survation/Progress Scotland | 2,032 | 40% | 51% | 9% | 11% | [u] |
30 Aug–3 Sep 2019 | YouGov/The Times | 1,059 | 43% | 44% | 13% | 1% | |
29 Aug 2019 | Ruth Davidson resigns as leader of the Scottish Conservatives | ||||||
30 Jul–2 Aug 2019 | Lord Ashcroft | 1,019 | 46% | 43% | 12% | 3% | [i] [a] |
24 Jul 2019 | Boris Johnson becomes the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom | ||||||
18–20 Jun 2019 | Panelbase/Sunday Times Archived 29 August 2022 at the Wayback Machine | 1,024 | 46% | 48% | 6% | 2% | |
24 May 2019 | Theresa May announces her resignation as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom | ||||||
23 May 2019 | 2019 European Parliament election | ||||||
14–17 May 2019 | Panelbase/Sunday Times Archived 26 June 2019 at the Wayback Machine | 1,021 | 45% | 49% | 6% | 4% | |
24–26 Apr 2019 | YouGov/The Times | 1,029 | 44% | 45% | 11% | 1% | |
18–24 Apr 2019 | Panelbase/Sunday Times Archived 23 May 2019 at the Wayback Machine | 1,018 | 44% | 49% | 7% | 5% | |
15–21 Mar 2019 | Survation/Progress Scotland | 2,041 | 35% | 56% | 8% | 21% | [v] |
30 Nov–5 Dec 2018 | Panelbase/Sunday Times Archived 11 December 2018 at the Wayback Machine | 1,028 | 45% | 51% | 4% | 6% | |
2–7 Nov 2018 | Panelbase/Constitutional Commission Archived 20 November 2018 at the Wayback Machine | 1,050 | 43% | 52% | 5% | 9% | |
18–21 Oct 2018 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,017 | 41% | 51% | 7% | 10% | |
3–5 Oct 2018 | Survation/Scottish National Party | 1,013 | 41% | 49% | 8% | 8% | |
28 Sep–4 Oct 2018 | Panelbase/Sunday Times Archived 9 October 2018 at the Wayback Machine | 1,024 | 41% | 52% | 7% | 11% | |
28 Sep–2 Oct 2018 | Survation/Sunday Post | 1,036 | 43% | 49% | 8% | 6% | |
24–29 Aug 2018 | Deltapoll/OFOC & Best for Britain | 1,022 | 45% | 47% | 8% | 2% | [w] |
5–10 Jul 2018 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,002 | 41% | 47% | 12% | 6% | [a] |
8–13 Jun 2018 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,021 | 41% | 53% | 6% | 12% | |
1–5 Jun 2018 | YouGov/The Times | 1,075 | 41% | 50% | 6% | 9% | |
30 May–5 Jun 2018 | YouGov/Future of England | 1,052 | 41% | 47% | 12% | 6% | [x] [a] |
23–28 Mar 2018 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,037 | 41% | 53% | 6% | 12% | |
5–11 Mar 2018 | Ipsos MORI/STV | 1,050 | 46% | 50% | 4% | 4% | [a] |
24–28 Jan 2018 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,029 | 42% | 50% | 8% | 8% | |
12–16 Jan 2018 | YouGov/The Times | 1,002 | 37% | 50% | 10% | 13% | [a] |
1–5 Dec 2017 | Survation/Sunday Post | 1,006 | 42% | 49% | 8% | 7% | |
27–30 Nov 2017 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,017 | 42% | 48% | 10% | 6% | |
2–5 Oct 2017 | YouGov/The Times | 1,135 | 39% | 50% | 7% | 11% | [a] |
8–12 Sep 2017 | Survation/Scottish Daily Mail | 1,016 | 42% | 49% | 9% | 7% | |
31 Aug–7 Sep 2017 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,021 | 40% | 53% | 6% | 13% | |
9–13 Jun 2017 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,037 | 39% | 53% | 7% | 14% | |
8 Jun 2017 | 2017 United Kingdom general election | ||||||
6–7 Jun 2017 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,001 | 36% | 56% | 7% | 20% | |
2–7 Jun 2017 | Panelbase/TheTimes | 1,106 | 41% | 53% | 6% | 12% | |
1–5 Jun 2017 | YouGov/The Times | 1,093 | 38% | 50% | 8% | 12% | [a] |
31 May–2 Jun 2017 | Survation/Sunday Post | 1,024 | 42% | 50% | 8% | 8% | |
22–27 May 2017 | Ipsos MORI/STV | 1,016 | 45% | 51% | 3% | 6% | [a] |
15–18 May 2017 | YouGov/The Times | 1,032 | 39% | 49% | 8% | 10% | [a] |
4 May 2017 | 2017 Scottish local elections | ||||||
24–27 Apr 2017 | YouGov/The Times | 1,017 | 40% | 49% | 8% | 9% | [a] |
18–21 Apr 2017 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,029 | 43% | 52% | 5% | 9% | |
18–21 Apr 2017 | Survation/Sunday Post | 1,018 | 43% | 48% | 9% | 5% | [a] |
7–11 Apr 2017 | BMG/Herald | 1,041 | 43% | 45% | 12% | 2% | |
29 Mar–11 Apr 2017 | Kantar | 1,060 | 37% | 55% | 8% | 18% | |
13–17 Mar 2017 | Panelbase/Sunday Times Archived 20 March 2017 at the Wayback Machine | 1,008 | 42% | 53% | 5% | 11% | |
9–14 Mar 2017 | YouGov/The Times | 1,028 | 37% | 48% | 11% | 11% | [a] |
8–13 Mar 2017 | Survation/Scottish Daily Mail | 1,019 | 43% | 48% | 9% | 5% | |
13 Mar 2017 | Nicola Sturgeon announces the intention to seek approval for a Section 30 order enabling an independence referendum | ||||||
24 Feb–6 Mar 2017 | Ipsos MORI/STV | 1,029 | 47% | 46% | 6% | 1% | |
23–27 Feb 2017 | BMG/Herald | 1,009 | 41% | 44% | 15% | 3% | |
7–13 Feb 2017 | Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland | 1,028 | 44% | 51% | 6% | 7% | |
26–31 Jan 2017 | BMG/Herald | 1,067 | 43% | 45% | 10% | 2% | |
20–26 Jan 2017 | Panelbase/Sunday Times Archived 31 January 2017 at the Wayback Machine | 1,020 | 43% | 51% | 7% | 8% | |
9–16 Dec 2016 | BMG/Herald | 1,002 | 40% | 47% | 13% | 7% | |
29 Aug–16 Dec 2016 | YouGov | 3,166 | 39% | 47% | 11% | 8% | [a] |
24–29 Nov 2016 | YouGov/The Times | 1,134 | 38% | 49% | 13% | 11% | |
9–15 Sep 2016 | Panelbase/Sunday Times Archived 2 October 2016 at the Wayback Machine | 1,024 | 44% | 50% | 7% | 6% | |
5–11 Sep 2016 | Ipsos MORI/STV | 1,000 | 45% | 50% | 5% | 5% | |
5–10 Sep 2016 | Survation | 1,073 | 42% | 48% | 10% | 6% | |
10 Aug–4 Sep 2016 | TNS | 1,047 | 41% | 47% | 12% | 6% | |
29–31 Aug 2016 | YouGov/The Times | 1,039 | 40% | 46% | 13% | 6% | [a] |
20–25 Jul 2016 | YouGov | 1,005 | 40% | 45% | 14% | 5% | [a] |
13 Jul 2016 | Theresa May becomes the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom | ||||||
24–28 Jun 2016 | Survation/Scottish Daily Mail | 1,055 | 47% | 41% | 12% | 6% | |
25–26 Jun 2016 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 626 | 47% | 44% | 8% | 3% | [y] |
25 Jun 2016 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,002 | 48% | 41% | 9% | 7% | |
24 Jun 2016 | David Cameron announces his resignation as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom | ||||||
23 Jun 2016 | 2016 EU membership referendum | ||||||
5 May 2016 | 2016 Scottish Parliament election | ||||||
2–4 May 2016 | YouGov/The Times | 1,445 | 41% | 48% | 12% | 7% | |
23–28 Apr 2016 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,074 | 44% | 49% | 6% | 5% | |
15–20 Apr 2016 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,005 | 44% | 47% | 9% | 3% | |
6–15 Apr 2016 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,021 | 45% | 51% | 5% | 6% | |
7–11 Apr 2016 | YouGov/The Times | 1,012 | 41% | 49% | 10% | 8% | |
10–17 Mar 2016 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,051 | 44% | 47% | 9% | 3% | |
7–9 Mar 2016 | YouGov/The Times | 1,070 | 40% | 47% | 12% | 7% | |
25–29 Feb 2016 | Survation/Scottish Daily Mail | 1,022 | 44% | 49% | 7% | 5% | |
11–16 Feb 2016 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,006 | 42% | 48% | 9% | 6% | |
1–7 Feb 2016 | Ipsos MORI/STV | 1,000 | 49% | 45% | 5% | 4% | |
1–4 Feb 2016 | YouGov/The Times | 1,022 | 43% | 51% | 7% | 8% | |
8–14 Jan 2016 | Panelbase/Sunday Times Archived 19 May 2016 at the Wayback Machine | 1,053 | 44% | 50% | 7% | 6% | |
8–12 Jan 2016 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,029 | 45% | 47% | 8% | 2% | |
6–13 Nov 2015 | Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland | 1,074 | 47% | 49% | 5% | 2% | |
9–13 Oct 2015 | YouGov/The Times | 1,026 | 45% | 49% | 6% | 4% | |
7–10 Sep 2015 | Survation/Scottish Daily Mail | 1,010 | 45% | 46% | 9% | 1% | |
7–10 Sep 2015 | YouGov/The Times | 1,110 | 45% | 49% | 6% | 4% | |
4–10 Sep 2015 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,005 | 45% | 51% | 3% | 6% | |
12 Aug–1 Sep 2015 | TNS | 1,023 | 47% | 42% | 11% | 5% | |
24–30 Aug 2015 | Ipsos MORI/STV | 1,002 | 53% | 44% | 3% | 9% | |
3–7 Jul 2015 | Survation/Scottish Daily Mail | 1,084 | 43% | 47% | 10% | 4% | |
26 Jun–3 Jul 2015 | Panelbase/SundayTimes | 1,002 | 45% | 50% | 5% | 5% | |
19–21 May 2015 | YouGov/Sunday Post | 1,108 | 44% | 49% | 7% | 5% | |
7 May 2015 | 2015 United Kingdom general election. | ||||||
3–6 May 2015 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,660 | 44% | 47% | 9% | 3% | |
29 Apr–1 May 2015 | YouGov/Sunday Times | 1,162 | 43% | 49% | 8% | 6% | |
22–27 Apr 2015 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,015 | 46% | 47% | 7% | 1% | |
20–23 Apr 2015 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,044 | 45% | 48% | 7% | 3% | |
8–9 Apr 2015 | YouGov/The Times | 1,056 | 46% | 49% | 6% | 3% | |
13–19 Mar 2015 | ICM/Guardian | 1,002 | 41% | 48% | 11% | 7% | |
12–17 Mar 2015 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,027 | 45% | 43% | 11% | 2% | |
10–12 Mar 2015 | YouGov/The Times | 1,049 | 45% | 48% | 8% | 3% | |
12–17 Feb 2015 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,011 | 43% | 47% | 10% | 4% | |
29 Jan–2 Feb 2015 | YouGov/The Times | 1,001 | 49% | 44% | 7% | 5% | |
9–11 Dec 2014 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,001 | 48% | 48% | 4% | Tied | |
9–11 Dec 2014 | YouGov/The Sun | 1,081 | 48% | 45% | 6% | 3% | |
27 Nov 2014 | Release of Smith Commission report. | ||||||
19 Nov 2014 | Nicola Sturgeon becomes First Minister of Scotland. | ||||||
6–13 Nov 2014 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,001 | 44% | 49% | 7% | 5% | |
30 Oct–5 Nov 2014 | Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland Archived 19 May 2016 at the Wayback Machine | 982 | 46% | 45% | 8% | 1% | |
27–30 Oct 2014 | YouGov/The Times | 1,078 | 49% | 45% | 6% | 4% | |
18 September 2014 | 2014 Scottish independence referendum results | 3,623,344 | 44.7% | 55.3% | 10.6% |
Some organisations have chosen to commission polls that adopt the remain / leave formulation that was used in the 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum.
The use of this format has been criticised by pro-independence politicians. SNP depute leader Keith Brown said in September 2019 that it was "a deliberate bid to confuse independence with Brexit".
Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Should Scotland remain in the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom? | Lead | Notes | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Leave | Remain | Undecided | ||||||
27-29 Aug 2024 | Survation/Scotland in Union | 1,021 | 37% | 54% | 8% | 17% | ||
6-18 Oct 2023 | Focaldata/These Islands | 1,037 | 33% | 55% | 13% | 22% | ||
22 Dec-01 Jan 2023 | Survation/Scotland in Union Archived 10 January 2023 at the Wayback Machine | 1,025 | 37% | 54% | 9% | 17% | ||
28–29 Sep 2022 | Survation/Scotland in Union | 1,011 | 36% | 51% | 13% | 15% | ||
29 Apr–3 May 2022 | Survation/Scotland in Union | 1,050 | 38% | 52% | 11% | 14% | ||
25–31 Mar 2022 | YouGov/These Islands | 510 | 35% | 50% | 9% | 15% | [z] | |
18–22 Nov 2021 | Survation/Scotland in Union | 1,045 | 38% | 54% | 8% | 16% | ||
31 Aug–1 Sep 2021 | Survation/Scotland in Union | 1,040 | 39% | 52% | 9% | 13% | ||
9–12 Mar 2021 | Survation/Scotland in Union | 1,011 | 37% | 49% | 10% | 12% | ||
10–12 Sep 2020 | Survation/Scotland in Union | 1,008 | 37% | 47% | 11% | 10% | ||
12–16 Sep 2019 | Survation/Scotland in Union | 1,003 | 38% | 55% | 9% | 17% | ||
18–23 Apr 2019 | Survation/Scotland in Union | 1,012 | 36% | 56% | 7% | 20% | ||
9–13 Nov 2018 | Survation/Scotland in Union | 1,013 | 36% | 55% | 9% | 19% | ||
28 Sep–4 Oct 2016 | BMG/Herald | 1,010 | 39% | 47% | 15% | 8% | ||
18 September 2014 | 2014 Scottish independence referendum results | 3,623,344 | 44.7% | 55.3% | 10.6% |
On 23 November 2022, the UK Supreme Court ruled that the Scottish Parliament does not have the power to unilaterally hold an independence referendum without the consent of the Westminster Parliament. [2] Following that judgment, the SNP reiterated its intention to campaign in the 2024 United Kingdom general election as a de facto independence referendum. Question asked is stated in notes field.
Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | SNP | Grn | Lab | Con | Lib | Other | Undecided | Lead (overall lead) | Notes |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
15–17 Feb 2023 | Savanta/The Scotsman | 1,004 | 36% | — | 29% | 17% | 5% | 2% | 10% | 15% | [aa] |
11–18 Jan 2023 | FindOutNow/The National | 1,094 | 52% | 2% | 23% | 12% | 7% | 4% | — | 12% | [ab] |
10-12 Jan 2023 | Survation/True North | 1,002 | 38% | — | 22% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 11% | 6% | [ac] |
16-21 Dec 2022 | Savanta/Scotsman | 1,048 | 37% | — | 27% | 18% | 5% | 2% | 10% | 13% | [ad] |
28 Nov–5 Dec 2022 | Ipsos MORI/STV | 1,065 | 53% | 2% | 24% | 13% | 6% | 2% | — | 12% | [ae] |
Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Yes | No | Undecided | Lead | Notes |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
23 Nov 2022 | Find Out Now/Channel 4 News | 1,006 | 50% | 33% | 16% | 17% | [af] |
Since devolution, the annual Scottish Social Attitudes Survey has contained a question on independence.
Respondents are asked Which of these statements comes closest to your view?
A report released in 2017, entitled From Indyref1 to Indyref2? The State of Nationalism in Scotland, detailed the previous responses from this survey by grouping options one and two as "independence", options three and four as "devolution" and option five as "No Parliament".
Separate from the question of how Scots might vote in a hypothetical second referendum is the question of whether there should be a second referendum. Once again the responses vary with exactly how the question is asked. There is a wide variety of timeframes used on this topic
Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Pollsters have asked various questions re when/if next Independence might happen, they have used various timeframes as below. | Lead | Notes | |||||||||||||||
In 2023 | Next 12 Months | Next 2 Years | In the next 2–5 years | More than 5 Years | No Referendum | |||||||||||||||
Yes | No | D/K | Yes | No | D/K | Yes | No | D/K | Yes | No | D/K | Yes | No | D/K | ||||||
8 - 13 Sep 2023 | YouGov | 1,103 | 27% | 62% | 11% | 45% | 43% | 12% | [ag] | |||||||||||
2 - 4 Sep 2023 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 1,100 | 42% | 42% | 12% | 42% | 40% | 14% | ||||||||||||
5 - 6 Aug 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,050 | 41% | 40% | 15% | 44% | 39% | 13% | ||||||||||||
1 - 2 Jul 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,030 | 41% | 40% | 12% | 41% | 38% | 14% | ||||||||||||
26 - 29 Jun 2023 | YouGov | 1,100 | 45% | 42% | 13% | [ah] | ||||||||||||||
3 - 5 Jun 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,466 | 42% | 40% | 13% | 42% | 39% | 15% | ||||||||||||
30 Apr- 2 May 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | 1295 | 37% | 47% | 11% | 39% | 42% | 14% | ||||||||||||
17-20 Apr 2023 | YouGov/The Times | 1,032 | 20% | 69% | 12% | 44% | 42% | 14% | ||||||||||||
31 Mar-1 Apr 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,008 | 41% | 44% | 15% | 43% | 41% | 16% | ||||||||||||
2-5 Mar 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,050 | 34% | 49% | 18% | 37% | 44% | 20% | ||||||||||||
17–20 Feb 2023 | YouGov/The Times | 1,017 | 22% | 68% | 10% | 45% | 44% | 11% | ||||||||||||
23-26 Jan 2023 | YouGov/Sunday Times | 1,088 | 28% | 62% | 10% | 47% | 42% | 10% | ||||||||||||
26-27 Nov 2022 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,000 | 46% | 43% | 11% | 46% | 40% | 14% | ||||||||||||
18–23 May 2022 | YouGov/The Times | 1,115 | 27% | 60% | 13% | 21% | 68% | 11% | 46% | 41% | 13% | |||||||||
26–29 Apr 2022 | Panelbase/SundayTimes | 1,009 | 24% | 31% | 45% | 10% | ||||||||||||||
29–31 Mar 2022 | YouGov/These Islands | 1.029 | 36% | 53% | 12% | 17% | ||||||||||||||
18-22 Nov 2021 | YouGov/Times | 1,060 | 34% | 50% | 16% | 28% | 55% | 17% | 44% | 41% | 15% | |||||||||
9-12 Nov 2021 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,781 | 19% | 34% | 46% | 7% | ||||||||||||||
22–28 Oct 2021 | Savanta ComRes/Scotsman | 1,005 | 14% | 17% | 17% | 23% | 23% | 48% | [ai] | |||||||||||
18 Sep 2021 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,000 | 34% | 50% | 16% | 41% | 42% | 17% | ||||||||||||
6-10 Sept 2021 | Panelbase/SundayTimes | 2,003 | 17% | 36% | 47% | 6% | ||||||||||||||
31 Aug–1 Sep 2021 | Survation/Scotland in Union | 1,040 | 38% | 52% | 9% | 14% | ||||||||||||||
4-5 Aug 2021 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,000 | 40% | 47% | 13% | 42% | 40% | 17% | ||||||||||||
16-24 June 2021 | Panelbase/SundayTimes | 1,287 | 19% | 35% | 46% | 8% | ||||||||||||||
28-30 April 2021 | Panelbase/SundayTimes | 1,096 | 22% | 33% | 45% | 10% | ||||||||||||||
30 Mar-1 April 2021 | Panelbase/SundayTimes | 1,009 | 25% | 29% | 46% | 7% | ||||||||||||||
3-5 March 2021 | Panelbase/SundayTimes | 1,013 | 25% | 30% | 45% | 10% |
Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Should the Scottish Government, need to get permission from the UK Government to run a referendum on Scottish independence? | Notes | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Should | Should Not | Undecided | ||||
26-29 Jun 2023 | Yougov | 1,100 | 40% | 50% | 10% | |
17-20 Apr 2023 | YouGov | 1.032 | 39% | 51% | 10% | |
17-20 Feb 2023 | YouGov | 1,017 | 40% | 51% | 9% |
Various companies have polled voters across the entire United Kingdom on various questions surrounding the issue of Scottish independence, from the standard Yes/No question as used in the 2014 referendum, to whether the Scottish government should be allowed to hold a second referendum. The results of these polls are displayed below.
Polls using 2014 referendum question
Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Should Scotland be an independent country? | Lead | Notes | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | No | Undecided | |||||
22–23 Feb 2023 | TechneUK | 1,633 | 9% | 71% | 20% | 62% | |
19-21 Jan 2023 | DeltaPoll/Mail on Sunday | 1,563 | 25% | 40% | 15% | 15% | |
29-30 June 2022 | Techne | 1,614 | 10% | 69% | 21% | 59% | |
18 Jun–2 Jul 2021 | Panelbase/The Sunday Times | 3,891 | 17% | 54% | 29% | 37% | |
On the Scottish Government's authority to hold a referendum
Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Should the Scottish Government be allowed to hold an independence referendum next year? | Lead | Notes | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | No | Undecided/Dont Know | |||||
29–2 Dec 2022 | Omnisis/Byline Times | 1,189 | 42% | 35% | 23% | 7% | [aj] |
Polling on a second referendum
Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Should there be a Referendum on Scottish Independence? | Lead | Notes | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | No | Undecided/Dont Know | |||||
19-21 Jan 2023 | Deltapoll/Mail On Sunday | 1,563 | 29% | 48% | 28% | 19% | [ak] |
Timing of a Second Independence Referendum
Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Pollsters have asked various questions re when/if next Independence might happen, they have used various timeframes as below. | No Referendum | Lead | Notes | ||||||||||||||
In 2023 | Next 12 Months | Next 2 Years | In the next 2–5 years | More than 5 Years | ||||||||||||||||
Yes | No | D/K | Yes | No | D/K | Yes | No | D/K | Yes | No | D/K | Yes | No | D/K | ||||||
18/6 - 2/7/21 | Panelbase/The Sunday Times | 3891 | 18% | 27% | 55% | |||||||||||||||
Year | Polling organisation/client | Independence | Devolution | No Parliament |
---|---|---|---|---|
2021 | British Social Attitudes Survey | 25% | 54% | 15% |
2020 | British Social Attitudes Survey | 24% | 54% | 14% |
2017 | British Social Attitudes Survey | 22% | 55% | 15% |
2015 | British Social Attitudes Survey | 23% | 49% | 20% |
2013 | British Social Attitudes Survey | 20% | 49% | 18% |
2012 | British Social Attitudes Survey | 25% | 43% | 23% |
2011 | British Social Attitudes Survey | 26% | 44% | 19% |
2007 | British Social Attitudes Survey | 19% | 48% | 18% |
2003 | British Social Attitudes Survey | 17% | 58% | 13% |
2002 | British Social Attitudes Survey | 19% | 52% | 15% |
2001 | British Social Attitudes Survey | 19% | 60% | 11% |
2000 | British Social Attitudes Survey | 19% | 52% | 17% |
1999 | British Social Attitudes Survey | 21% | 57% | 14% |
1997 | British Election Study | 14% | 55% | 23% |
Scottish independence is the idea of Scotland regaining its independence and once again becoming a sovereign state, independent from the United Kingdom. The term Scottish independence refers to the political movement that is campaigning to bring it about.
An opinion poll, often simply referred to as a survey or a poll, is a human research survey of public opinion from a particular sample. Opinion polls are usually designed to represent the opinions of a population by conducting a series of questions and then extrapolating generalities in ratio or within confidence intervals. A person who conducts polls is referred to as a pollster.
Referendums in the United Kingdom are occasionally held at a national, regional or local level. Historically, national referendums are rare due to the long-standing principle of parliamentary sovereignty. Legally there is no constitutional requirement to hold a national referendum for any purpose or on any issue. However, the UK Parliament is free to legislate through an Act of Parliament for a referendum to be held on any question at any time.
The Scottish devolution referendum of 1997 was a pre-legislative referendum held in Scotland on 11 September 1997 over whether there was support for the creation of a Scottish Parliament with devolved powers, and whether the Parliament should have tax-varying powers. The result was "Yes–Yes": a majority voted in favour of both proposals, and the Parliament was established following an election in 1999. Turnout for the referendum was 60.4%.
Unionism in Scotland is a political movement which favours the continuation of the political union between Scotland and the other countries of the United Kingdom, and hence is opposed to Scottish independence. Scotland is one of four countries of the United Kingdom which has its own devolved government and Scottish Parliament, as well as representation in the UK Parliament. There are many strands of political Unionism in Scotland, some of which have ties to Unionism and Loyalism in Northern Ireland. The two main political parties in the UK — the Conservatives and Labour — both support Scotland remaining part of the UK.
This is a list of opinion polls for the 2007 Scottish Parliament election. The first figure for each party is for the 1st, first-past-the-post, constituency, vote; the second figure is for the 2nd, proportional representation, regional, vote. The Scottish Greens and the Scottish Socialist Party ran only one constituency candidate each in the 2007 election so constituency values in polls for those parties have little meaning.
Full fiscal autonomy (FFA) – also known as devolution max, devo-max, or fiscal federalism – is a particular form of far-reaching devolution proposed for Scotland and for Wales. The term has come to describe a constitutional arrangement in which instead of receiving a block grant from His Majesty's Treasury as at present, the Scottish Parliament or the Senedd would receive all taxation levied in Scotland or Wales; it would be responsible for most spending in Scotland or Wales but make payments to the UK government to cover Scotland or Wales's share of the cost of providing certain UK-wide services, largely defence and foreign relations. Scottish/Welsh fiscal autonomy – stopping short of full political independence – is usually promoted by advocates of a federal United Kingdom.
A referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom was held in Scotland on 18 September 2014. The referendum question was "Should Scotland be an independent country?", which voters answered with "Yes" or "No". The "No" side won with 2,001,926 (55.3%) voting against independence and 1,617,989 (44.7%) voting in favour. The turnout of 84.6% was the highest recorded for an election or referendum in the United Kingdom since the January 1910 general election, which was held before the introduction of universal suffrage.
In the run up to the general election on 7 May 2015, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.
Better Together was the successful campaign for a No vote in the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, advocating Scotland to remain a country of the United Kingdom. The organisation was formed in June 2012, operating until winning the vote on the referendum's polling day on 18 September 2014 with 2,001,926 (55.3%) voting against independence and 1,617,989 (44.7%) voting in favour. In June 2014, the campaign adopted a No Thanks branding, in relation to the referendum question.
Events from the year 2014 in Scotland.
This page lists the public opinion polls that were conducted in relation to the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, that was held on 18 September 2014. Overall, polls showed that support for a "No" vote was dominant until the end of August 2014, when support for a "Yes" vote gained momentum and the gap closed significantly, with at least one poll placing the "Yes" vote ahead. In the final week of the campaign, polls showed the "No" vote to be consistently but somewhat narrowly ahead. There were no exit polls although a YouGov post-election poll was published shortly after the polls closed. For the history of the campaign itself see 2014 Scottish independence referendum, Yes Scotland, and Better Together (campaign).
In the run-up to the general election on 8 June 2017, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.
The referendum on EU membership took place on 23 June 2016. Opinion polling for the United Kingdom European Union membership referendum was ongoing in the months between the announcement of a referendum and the referendum polling day. Polls on the general principle of the UK's membership of the European Union were carried out for a number of years prior to the referendum. Opinion polls of voters in general tended to show roughly equal proportions in favour of remaining and leaving. Polls of business leaders, scientists, and lawyers showed majorities in favour of remaining. Among non-British citizens in other EU member states, polling suggested that a majority were in favour of the UK remaining in the EU in principle, but that a similarly sized majority believed that if the UK were only able to remain in the EU on renegotiated terms then it should leave.
A second referendum on Scotland becoming independent of the United Kingdom (UK) has been proposed by the Scottish Government. An independence referendum was first held on 18 September 2014, with 55% voting "No" to independence. The Scottish Government stated in its white paper for independence that voting Yes was a "once in a generation opportunity to follow a different path, and choose a new and better direction for our nation". Following the "No" vote, the cross party Smith Commission proposed areas that could be devolved to the Scottish Parliament; this led to the passing of the Scotland Act 2016, formalising new devolved policy areas in time for the 2016 Scottish Parliament election campaign.
In the run-up to the 2021 Scottish Parliament election, various organisations conducted opinion polls to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in this list. Most of the pollsters listed were members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abided by its disclosure rules.
Scotland in Union (SIU) is a pro-UK campaign group, based in Scotland, which launched in March 2015 to help keep Scotland within the United Kingdom. Its supporters include members of pro-UK political parties and people with no party affiliation. It is Scotland's largest and most active pro-UK campaign group, with 38,000 signed up supporters.
Following a 2016 referendum, the United Kingdom exited from the European Union at the end of January 2020. Since leaving the EU, numerous polling organisations have conducted surveys to gauge public opinion on rejoining the organisation. The trend of the poll data shows that, over time, support for Brexit has waned, while public opinion in the UK has gradually moved in favour of rejoining the EU.
Opinion polling on Welsh independence is continually being carried out by various organisations to gauge public attitudes to independence. The dates for these opinion polls range from January 2007 to the present day. Polling was initially sporadic, but it has been carried out almost every month since January 2021. The question typically asked by pollsters is "Should Wales be an independent country?".
This page lists opinion polling for a United Ireland also known as a New Ireland.