A referendum on Welsh independence from the United Kingdom (UK) has been proposed by pro-independence supporters, including independence campaign group YesCymru, pro-independence political party Plaid Cymru and other groups and individuals. These follow similar calls for a proposed second Scottish independence referendum. Pro-independence party Plaid Cymru has pledged to hold a referendum should they win a majority of seats in the Senedd.
In March 2017, following calls for a second referendum on Scottish independence, Plaid Cymru leader Leanne Wood said there needed to be a national debate on Welsh independence. [1] In July 2020, Plaid brought forward a motion to discuss a referendum on Welsh independence, but it was rejected by 43 votes to 9. [2]
On 24 October 2020, Wales Green Party members voted at their party conference that the party would support Welsh independence in the event of a referendum being held on whether or not Wales should become independent from the United Kingdom. [3]
In July 2020, Plaid Cymru tabled a motion for Welsh ministers to seek permission from Westminster for the right of the Senedd to legislate for a Welsh independence referendum. The members of Senedd rejected this motion by 43 votes to 9. [4] This was the first time in history that Welsh independence was debated in the Senedd. [5] [6]
On 11 December 2020, Plaid Cymru leader Adam Price stated that if his party won a majority at the 2021 Senedd election, an independence referendum would be held in its first term in office. [7] At Plaid's special conference on independence, held on 13 February 2021, party members formally approved Price's pledge to hold a referendum in or before 2026. [8]
In June 2022, the UK Government announced its intention to repeal the Welsh Government's Trade Union (Wales) Act 2017, which bans agency staff from being used if public sector workers go on strike. [9] Price called this a "power grab" and "potentially devolution's breaking point", and called for a referendum to be held in order to protect the Senedd's powers. [10] Price stated in a radio interview in June 2022, "If the Supreme Court decides in favour, we in Wales will have a route to go directly to the people of Wales in order to have a mandate for securing our own right to self-determination as a nation." [11] The UK government states that "industrial relations" are a reserved matter to the UK Government but the Welsh government said it would "resist" attempts to undermine legislation that is passed by the Senedd. [12]
A petition was made to the UK government and parliament requesting a referendum on Welsh independence which gathered over 8,000 signatures. [13]
First Minister of Wales, Mark Drakeford has stated "If a party that stands for that at an election wins a majority of votes in Wales, then, of course, that referendum should happen." [14]
Emyr Lewis, Head of the Department of Law and Criminology at Aberystwyth University has said that there is no great difference between the situation in Wales and Scotland when it comes to the right to hold an independence without Westminster transfer of powers to do so. Under the Government of Wales Act 2006, the legislative powers of the Senedd, similarly to the Scottish Parliament cannot pass legislation that affects the constitution of the United Kingdom and the London Parliament. [15]
Lewis notes that there is however a potential route for a referendum on independence without Westminster involvement. Under Section 64 of the Welsh Government Act 2006 however, the Welsh Government has the power to hold a poll (referendum) "for the purpose of ascertaining the views of those polled about whether or how any of the functions of the Welsh Ministers...should be exercised." Section 60 of the 2006 Act also states that the Welsh Government may do whatever is appropriate "in order to achieve...promote or improve the economic, social and environmental welfare of Wales". If the Welsh government considered independence to be a benefit to the economic welfare of Wales, it could potentially ask the opinion of the people of Wales in a referendum on independence. There is no section in the Scotland Act 1998 which corresponds to sections 60 or 64 which were in place at a time when the devolution settlement in Wales was different to what is it now. Lewis notes that a court of law may not accept section 60 in a broad sense that may apply to an independence referendum. [15]
The leader of the Conservatives in Wales and the leader of the Liberal Democrats in Wales have shown opposition to a potential referendum on Welsh independence. [16]
A YouGov poll in January 2021 found that 31% of people in Wales support holding a referendum on Welsh independence within the next five years with 47% opposing. [17] In May 2021, a Redfield and Wilton Strategies poll of the British (not just Welsh) public, showed 30% opposed the Welsh having an independence referendum, while support and neithers were both 29%. 44% believed in such a referendum the pro-UK side would win, compared to 18% for pro-independence to win, and 38% who don't know which side would win in such a referendum. [18]
Redfield and Wilton Strategies had been conducting polls on the issue. Their poll in April 2023 found that:
While their poll in May 2023 found that:
Their 17–18 June 2023 poll stated, on whether to hold a referendum in the next year:
Their 14–16 July 2023 poll stated, on whether to hold a referendum in the next year:
Their 13–14 August 2023 poll stated, on whether to hold a referendum in the next year:
Plaid Cymru is a centre-left to left-wing, Welsh nationalist political party in Wales, committed to Welsh independence from the United Kingdom.
The Senedd, officially known as the Welsh Parliament in English and Senedd Cymru in Welsh, is the devolved, unicameral legislature of Wales. A democratically elected body, it makes laws for Wales, agrees to certain taxes, and scrutinises the Welsh Government. It is a bilingual institution, with both Welsh and English being the official languages of its business. From its creation in May 1999 until May 2020, the Senedd was known as the National Assembly for Wales.
Adam Robert Price is a Welsh politician who served as Leader of Plaid Cymru from September 2018 to May 2023. He has been the Member of the Senedd (MS) for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr since 2016, having previously been a Member of Parliament (MP) for the same Westminster constituency from 2001 to 2010.
Welsh nationalism emphasises and celebrates the distinctiveness of Welsh culture and Wales as a nation or country. Welsh nationalism may also include calls for further autonomy or self-determination, which includes Welsh devolution, meaning increased powers for the Senedd, or full Welsh independence.
The Wales Green Party is a semi-autonomous political party within the Green Party of England and Wales (GPEW). It covers Wales, and is the only regional party with semi-autonomous status within the GPEW. The Wales Green Party puts up candidates for council, Senedd, and UK Parliament seats.
Politics in Wales forms a distinctive polity in the wider politics of the United Kingdom, with Wales as one of the four constituent countries of the United Kingdom (UK).
Welsh republicanism or republicanism in Wales is the political ideology that advocates for Wales to be governed by a republican system, as opposed to the monarchy of the United Kingdom.
Welsh Labour, formerly known as the Labour Party in Wales, is an autonomous section of the United Kingdom Labour Party in Wales and the largest party in modern Welsh politics. Welsh Labour and its forebears have won a plurality of the Welsh vote at every UK general election since 1922, every Assembly and Senedd election since 1999, and all elections to the European Parliament in the period 1979–2004 and in 2014. Welsh Labour holds 22 of the 40 Welsh seats in the UK Parliament, 30 of the 60 seats in the Welsh Senedd and 576 of the 1,264 councillors in principal local authorities including overall control of 10 of the 22 principal local authorities.
Welsh independence is the political movement advocating for Wales to become a sovereign state, independent from the United Kingdom.
Full fiscal autonomy (FFA) – also known as devolution max, devo-max, or fiscal federalism – is a particular form of far-reaching devolution proposed for Scotland and for Wales. The term has come to describe a constitutional arrangement in which instead of receiving a block grant from the UK Exchequer as at present, the Scottish Parliament or the Senedd would receive all taxation levied in Scotland or Wales; it would be responsible for most spending in Scotland or Wales but make payments to the UK government to cover Scotland or Wales's share of the cost of providing certain UK-wide services, largely defence and foreign relations. Scottish/Welsh fiscal autonomy – stopping short of full political independence – is usually promoted by advocates of a federal United Kingdom.
Propel is a sovereignist and Welsh nationalist political party in Wales which advocates Welsh independence from the United Kingdom. The party was formed in early 2020 by its current leader Neil McEvoy. Propel currently has one county councillor in Wales.
Unionism in Wales is the political view that supports a political union between Wales and the other countries of the United Kingdom. As well as the current state of the UK, unionism may also include support for Federalism in the United Kingdom and a United Kingdom Confederation.
Opinion polling on Scottish independence is continually being carried out by various organisations. This article concerns well over 240 polls carried out since the 2014 Scottish independence referendum. Polling conducted before the referendum can be found here. Polls listed here, except as noted, are by members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.
The 2021 Senedd election took place on Thursday 6 May 2021 to elect 60 members to the Senedd. It was the sixth devolved general election since the Senedd was established in 1999. The election was held alongside the Scottish Parliament election, English local elections, London Assembly and mayoral election and the Hartlepool by-election.
YesCymru is a non party-political campaign for an independent Wales. The organisation was formed in summer 2014 and officially launched on 20 February 2016 in Cardiff. In 2022 it became a private company limited by guarantee without share capital.
Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election is continually being carried out by various organisations to gauge voting intention. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules. The dates for these opinion polls range from the 2019 general election on 12 December to the present day.
Gwlad is a centre-right Welsh nationalist and pro-independence political party. Its current leader is Gwyn Wigley Evans.
The next Senedd election is due to be held in or before May 2026 to elect 60 members to the Senedd. It will be the seventh devolved general election since the Senedd was established in 1999. It will also be the second election since the Senedd changed its name in May 2020.
Welsh devolution is the transfer of legislative power for self-governance to Wales by the Government of the United Kingdom.
There have been calls for further Welsh devolution, increasing the autonomy for Wales, since the Welsh legislature of the Senedd was founded following the 1997 Welsh devolution referendum.
