Opinion polling for the 1979 United Kingdom general election

Last updated

In the run-up to the 1979 general election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the October general election until 3 May 1979.

Contents

Graphical summaries

The chart below depicts opinion polls conducted for the 1979 United Kingdom general election.

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Conservatives
Labour
Liberals Opinion polling for the 1979 United Kingdom general election.svg
  Conservatives
  Labour
  Liberals

National Poll Results

All data is from UK Polling Report. [1]

1979

Survey
end date
PollsterClient Lab Con Lib Lead
3 May 1979 general election 36.9%43.9%13.8%7%
2 May Gallup The Daily Telegraph 38.5%49%9%10.5%
2 MayNOP Daily Mail 39%46%12.5%7%
2 MayGallupThe Daily Telegraph41%43%13.5%2%
2 May MORI Evening Standard 37%45%15%8%
1 MayMORI Daily Express 38.8%44.4%13.5%5.6%
1 MayMarplan The Sun 38.5%45%9%6.5%
30 AprNOPDaily Mail43.1%42.4%12.2%0.7%
26 AprMORIDaily Express41%44%12%3%
25 AprGallup The Sunday Telegraph 40%48%10.5%8%
25 AprResearch SrvThe Observer38%49.5%10%11.5%
25 AprMarplanThe Sun40%48%10%8%
23 AprMORIDaily Express40%46%11%6%
21 AprGallupThe Daily Telegraph41.5%46.5%10%5%
19 AprMarplanThe Sun40%50%9%10%
18 AprGallupThe Sunday Telegraph42%47.5%9%5.5%
18 AprMarplanThe Sun41%51%6%10%
18 AprResearch SrvThe Observer34%54%9.5%20%
17 AprMORIDaily Express38%50%10%12%
14 AprNOPDaily Mail42%48%8%6%
11 AprResearch SrvThe Observer37%53%8%16%
9 AprGallupThe Daily Telegraph40%50%8%10%
9 AprMORIDaily Express39%49%10%10%
7 AprThe Dissolution of the 47th Parliament and campaigning officially begins
4 AprResearch SrvThe Observer33.5%54.5%9%21%
3 AprNOPDaily Mail42%48%8%6%
2 AprMORIDaily Express38%51%10%13%
29 MarMORIThames42%51%5%9%
29 Mar Liverpool Edge Hill by-election
28 MarThe vote of no confidence in the Callaghan ministry passes [2]
28 MarGallupThe Daily Telegraph40.5%47.5%9%7%
12 MarGallupThe Daily Telegraph37%51.5%8.5%14.5%
5 MarMORIN/A39%52%7%13%
1 Mar Knutsford and Clitheroe by-elections
14 FebThe Winter of Discontent ends following negotiations with the TUC [3]
12 FebGallupThe Daily Telegraph33%53%11%20%
8 FebNOPN/A40.7%49%7.4%8.3%
1 FebMORIN/A36%55%6%19%
15 JanGallupThe Daily Telegraph41.5%49%6%7.5%
4 JanNOPN/A49.1%42.5%5.7%6.6%

1978

Survey
end date
PollsterClient Lab Con Lib Lead
14 DecThe Callaghan ministry survives a vote of no confidence [4]
11 DecGallupThe Daily Telegraph42.5%48%6%5.5%
7 DecNOPN/A47.9%44.7%4.6%3.2%
13 NovGallupThe Daily Telegraph48%43%6.5%5%
9 NovNOPN/A46.8%44.8%6.2%2%
8 NovMORIN/A46%47%5%1%
26 Oct Pontefract and Castleford & Berwick and East Lothian by-elections
23 OctGallupThe Daily Telegraph47.5%42%7.5%5.5%
12 OctNOPN/A48.5%44.2%4.7%4.3%
11 SepGallupThe Daily Telegraph42.5%49.5%6%7%
11 SepMORIN/A42%48%8%6%
7 SepThe Lib-Lab pact ends [5]
5 SepNOPN/A45.8%48%4.8%2.2%
4 SepMORIN/A45%47%5%2%
14 AugGallupThe Daily Telegraph47.5%43.5%6%4%
14 AugMORIN/A44%47%6%3%
9 AugNOPN/A48.5%42.4%6.3%6.1%
17 JulGallupThe Daily Telegraph43%45%8.5%2%
13 Jul Penistone & Manchester Moss Side by-elections
11 JulMORIN/A41%49%6%8%
5 JulNOPN/A44.4%46.5%6.3%2.1%
30 JunMORIN/A42%48%6%6%
14 JunNOPN/A42.3%49.1%6.3%6.8%
13 JunMORIN/A45%46%6%1%
12 JunGallupThe Daily Telegraph45.5%45.5%6%Tie
31 May Hamilton by-election
24 MayMORIN/A46%45%6%1%
15 MayGallupThe Daily Telegraph43.5%43.5%8.5%Tie
9 MayNOPN/A48%43.1%7%4.9%
2–4 May 1978 local elections [6]
27 Apr Wycombe & Epsom and Ewell by-elections
20 Apr Lambeth Central by-election
17 AprGallupThe Daily Telegraph43.5%45.5%7.5%2%
13 AprMORIN/A44%46%7%2%
13 Apr Glasgow Garscadden by-election
12 AprNOPN/A44.5%46.2%6.6%1.7%
20 MarGallupThe Daily Telegraph41%48%8%7%
8 MarNOPN/A45.6%44.6%7.3%1%
2 Mar Ilford North by election
15 FebNOPN/A44.6%45.3%7.1%0.7%
13 FebGallupThe Daily Telegraph39%48%9%9%
18 JanNOP45.5%44%7.5%1.5%
16 JanGallupThe Daily Telegraph43.5%43.5%8.5%Tie

1977

Survey
end date
PollsterClient Lab Con Lib Lead
14 DecNOPN/A48.8%40.8%7%8%
12 DecGallupThe Daily Telegraph44.5%44%8%0.5%
7 DecNOPN/A44.1%44.6%7.5%0.5%
30 NovNOPN/A47.5%43.2%6.3%4.3%
24 Nov Bournemouth East by election
23 NovNOPN/A44.3%46.7%6.2%2.4%
16 NovNOPN/A48.5%42.5%6.2%6%
14 NovGallupThe Daily Telegraph42%45.5%8.5%3.5%
9 NovNOPN/A44.1%45.5%7%1.4%
26 OctNOPN/A43%46.7%6.9%3.7%
26 OctMORIN/A44%45%7%1%
24 OctGallupThe Daily Telegraph45%45%8%Tie
19 OctNOPN/A45.8%44.1%7.3%1.7%
22 SepMORIN/A42%49%5%7%
14 SepNOPN/A41.8%48%7.3%6.2%
12 SepGallupThe Daily Telegraph41%45.5%8.5%4.5%
18 Aug Birmingham Ladywood by election
15 AugGallupThe Daily Telegraph37.5%48.5%9%11%
10 AugNOPN/A38.2%51.3%7.1%13.1%
18 JulGallupThe Daily Telegraph34.5%49%10.5%14.5%
13 JulNOPN/A35.1%53.1%8.4%18%
7 Jul Saffron Walden by election
22 JunNOPN/A37.1%49.1%10.8%12%
13 JunGallupThe Daily Telegraph37%47.5%10.5%10.5%
16 MayGallupThe Daily Telegraph33%53.5%8.5%20.5%
11 MayNOPN/A36.9%52.9%7.2%16%
3–18 May 1977 local elections [7] [8] [9]
2 MayNOPN/A41%48.3%6.6%7.3%
28 Apr Grimsby & Ashfield by-elections
20 AprNOPN/A38.3%49.4%9.1%11.1%
18 AprGallupThe Daily Telegraph33.5%49%11.5%15.5%
31 Mar Birmingham Stechford by-election
23 MarNOPN/A35.7%50.9%9.7%15.2%
23 MarThe Lib–Lab pact is formed [10] [11]
14 MarGallupThe Daily Telegraph33%49.5%13%16.5%
28 FebMORIN/A38%47%12%9%
24 Feb City of London and Westminster South by-election
23 FebNOPN/A37.4%47.3%10.9%9.9%
16 FebNOPN/A36.1%50.2%10%14.1%
14 FebGallupThe Daily Telegraph33.5%46%14%12.5%
26 JanNOPN/A36.8%48.4%10.2%11.6%
17 JanGallupThe Daily Telegraph34%47%14.5%13%
2 JanNOPN/A35.1%50%11.2%14.9%

1976

Survey
end date
PollsterClient Lab Con Lib Lead
14 DecNOPN/A38.4%47.9%10.6%9.5%
2 Dec Cambridge by-election
13 DecGallupThe Daily Telegraph34%49.5%11.5%15.5%
28 NovNOPN/A31.3%55.2%9.4%23.9%
15 NovGallupThe Daily Telegraph30%55%11.5%25%
7 NovNOPN/A38.2%49.3%9.3%11.1%
4 Nov Workington, Walsall North and Newcastle-upon-Tyne Central by-elections
18 OctGallupThe Daily Telegraph36.5%48%11.5%11.5%
17 OctNOPN/A34.9%53.4%8.3%18.5%
10 OctNOPN/A35.9%50.7%9.5%14.8%
26 SepNOPN/A39.6%45.6%9.9%6%
20 SepGallupThe Daily Telegraph42%42.5%11%0.5%
12 SepNOPN/A40.5%46.5%9.1%6%
22 AugNOPN/A43.3%43.9%9.3%0.6%
16 AugGallupThe Daily Telegraph41%44%10%3%
18 JulNOPN/A43.5%43.6%8.7%0.1%
15 Jul Thurrock by-election
12 JulGallupThe Daily Telegraph41%41%13%Tie
11 JulNOPN/A44.1%42.1%9.5%2%
7 Jul David Steel is elected leader of the Liberal Party [12]
24 Jun Rotherham by-election
14 JunGallupThe Daily Telegraph40.5%44%11%3.5%
10 JunNOPN/A41.2%45.8%8.8%4.6%
23 MayNOPN/A43%44.7%8.3%1.7%
17 MayGallupThe Daily Telegraph41%44%10.5%3%
16 MayNOPN/A41.5%46.5%8.3%5%
6 May 1976 local elections [13]
28 AprNOPN/A46.1%41.7%8.4%4.4%
12 AprGallupThe Daily Telegraph46.5%41%9%5.5%
11 AprNOPN/A44.7%43.6%9%1.1%
9 AprMORIN/A46%40%10%6%
5 Apr James Callaghan is elected leader of the Labour Party
and becomes Prime Minister
[14]
19 MarMORIN/A47%40%9%7%
15 MarGallupThe Daily Telegraph41.5%44%9.5%2.5%
14 MarNOPN/A41.7%46%8.8%4.3%
11 Mar Wirral & Carshalton by-elections
4 Mar Coventry North West by-election
16 FebGallupThe Daily Telegraph40.5%45.5%10.5%5%
25 JanNOPN/A42.8%42%11.3%0.8%
22 JanNOPN/A40.5%43.9%11.4%3.4%
19 JanGallupThe Daily Telegraph42%40.5%14%1.5%

1975

Survey
end date
PollsterClient Lab Con Lib Lead
16 DecNOPN/A38.3%45.4%11.7%7.1%
16 DecGallupThe Daily Telegraph41%40.5%14%0.5%
30 NovNOPN/A37.4%44.5%14.9%7.1%
17 NovGallupThe Daily Telegraph44.5%39%12.5%5.5%
16 NovNOPN/A41.2%43.6%12.7%2.4%
30 OctNOPN/A41.5%43.4%11.8%1.9%
20 OctGallupThe Daily Telegraph40.5%42.5%13.5%2%
22 SepGallupThe Daily Telegraph41.5%38.5%16.5%3%
7 SepNOPN/A40.8%45.7%10.3%4.9%
18 AugGallupThe Daily Telegraph42%40.5%14%1.5%
17 AugNOPN/A40.3%44.4%11.6%4.1%
14 JulGallupThe Daily Telegraph40.5%43%12.5%2.5%
29 JunNOPN/A37.2%48.8%10.4%11.6%
26 Jun Woolwich West by-election
16 JunGallupThe Daily Telegraph40.5%44%13%3.5%
5 JunThe United Kingdom votes "Yes" to staying in the European Community [15]
1 JunNOPN/A43.6%42%10.7%1.6%
19 MayGallupThe Daily Telegraph39.5%45.5%11%6%
11 MayNOPN/A40.2%42.9%13%2.7%
1 May 1975 local elections [16]
27 AprNOPN/A43.5%42.4%10.9%1.1%
14 AprGallupThe Daily Telegraph45%43%10%2%
6 AprNOPN/A43.3%44.8%9.1%1.5%
17 MarGallupThe Daily Telegraph44%42%11%2%
2 MarNOPN/A46.4%40.8%10.3%5.6%
17 FebGallupThe Daily Telegraph41%45%11%4%
11 Feb Margaret Thatcher is elected leader of the Conservative Party [17] [18]
9 FebNOPN/A46%38.6%11.1%7.4%
2 FebNOPN/A43.8%38.1%14.6%5.7%
19 JanNOPN/A47.8%32.4%15.9%15.4%
13 JanGallupThe Daily Telegraph48.5%34%13%14.5%

1974

Survey
end date
PollsterClient Lab Con Lib Lead
16 DecGallupThe Daily Telegraph47%33%16.5%14%
1 DecNOPN/A47.7%38.4%11.1%9.3%
18 NovGallupThe Daily Telegraph46.5%35%14.5%11.5%
27 OctNOPN/A43.7%36.6%15.1%7.1%
10 Oct Oct 1974 general election 39.2%35.8%18.3%3.4%

Polling in the nations and regions

Scotland

Date(s)
conducted
PollsterClientSample
size
Lab SNP Con Lib SLP Lead
3 May 1979 1979 election 41.5%17.3%31.4%9.0%0.5%10.1%
3 May 1979 [lower-alpha 1] Scottish Daily Express 44%18%30%6%14%
30 Apr 1979 [lower-alpha 1] Opinion Research Centre The Scotsman42%15%34%8%8%
25 Apr 1979 [lower-alpha 1] Opinion Research Centre The Scotsman42%16%33%9%9%
24–25 Feb 1979 System Three Glasgow Herald 1,08040%18%37%4%1%3%
20–22 Feb 1979 MORI Scottish Daily Express1,03744%21%32%2%12%
12–14 Feb 1979 MORI LWT Weekend World1,01545%23%30%2%15%
29 Jan6 Feb 1979 System Three Glasgow Herald1,00340%23%31%4%1%9%
8–20 Jan 1979 System Three Glasgow Herald92645%20%31%2%2%14%
Dec 1978 System Three Glasgow Herald48%21%25%4%2%23%
Nov 1978 System Three Glasgow Herald51%21%23%3%2%28%
26 Sep3 Oct 1978 System Three Glasgow Herald97248%19%27%4%1%21%
30 Aug8 Sep 1978 System Three Glasgow Herald1,00052%18%24%3%3%28%
31 Jul9 Aug 1978 System Three Glasgow Herald96248%18%30%4%0.5%18%
26 Jun5 Jul 1978 System Three Glasgow Herald90647%22%26%4%1%21%
25 Apr2 May 1978 System Three Glasgow Herald1,02447%24%24%3%2%23%
27 Mar5 Apr 1978 System Three Glasgow Herald1,00838%27%29%4%2%9%
5 Apr 1978 MORI LWT Weekend World1,00241%27%30%3%1%11%
6–14 Mar 1978 System Three Glasgow Herald1,03135%27%30%5%2%5%
30 Jan6 Feb 1978 System Three Glasgow Herald99438%27%28%5%2%10%
Jan 1978 System Three Glasgow Herald34%29%28%6%3%5%
Nov 1977 System Three Glasgow Herald35%30%27%5%3%5%
24 Oct8 Nov 1977 System Three Glasgow Herald98436%26%30%6%2%6%
26 Sep6 Oct 1977 System Three Glasgow Herald97131%28%32%6%2%1%
22 Aug2 Sep 1977 System Three Glasgow Herald1,04529%30%32%5%4%2%
Jul 1977 System Three Glasgow Herald32%33%26%5%3%1%
30 May7 Jun 1977 System Three Glasgow Herald1,01933%35%26%4%1%2%
25 Apr4 May 1977 System Three Glasgow Herald1,01228%31%31%6%2%Tied
Mar 1977 System Three Glasgow Herald27%36%27%5%3%9%
26 Feb5 Mar 1977 System Three Glasgow Herald97829%31%32%5%3%1%
Jan 1977 System Three Glasgow Herald28%33%29%6%4%4%
10 Oct 1974 October 1974 election 36.3%30.4%24.7%8.3%N/A5.9%

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 Date the poll was published.

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References

  1. "UK Polling Report". ukpollingreport.co.uk. Retrieved 16 December 2019.
  2. Aikten, Ian (29 March 1979). "Labour fall by one vote". The Guardian .
  3. Jenkins, Peter (15 February 1979). "Pay later deal in Callaghan's survival kit". The Guardian .
  4. Aikten, Ian; Harper, Keith (15 December 1978). "Callaghan home by 10 Votes". The Guardian .
  5. Aikten, Ian (8 September 1978). "Callaghan gambles on finding new Allies". The Guardian .
  6. Jordan, Philip (5 May 1978). "Labour slips in London after gains in North". The Guardian .
  7. Hetherington, Peter (4 May 1977). "Big gains for SNP but Glasgow is split". The Guardian .
  8. Jordan, Philip (6 May 1977). "Massive swing gives Tories the cities". The Guardian .
  9. McHardy, Anne; Wainwright, Martin (19 May 1977). "Shots fired in Ulster poll". The Guardian .
  10. "Joint Statement on the Lib-Lab Pact: Steel and Callaghan – Liberal History". Liberal History. 24 March 1977. Retrieved 16 July 2021.
  11. Aikten, Ian (24 March 1977). "Liberal deal strains Left". The Guardian .
  12. Hoggart, Simon (8 July 1976). "Smith snub victor Steel". The Guardian .
  13. Lewis, James (7 May 1976). "Tories gain – but no landslide". The Guardian .
  14. Aikten, Ian (6 April 1976). "Callaghan puts his trust in the people". The Guardian .
  15. McKie, David (7 June 1975). "Anatomy of a Landslide". The Guardian .
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  17. Aikten, Ian (12 February 1975). "First lady will put Tories right". The Guardian .
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