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This article is part of a series within the Politics of the United Kingdom on the |
Politics of Wales |
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The next Senedd election is due to be held on or before 7 May 2026 [1] to elect 96 members to the Senedd (Welsh Parliament; Welsh : Senedd Cymru). It will be the seventh devolved general election since the Senedd (formerly the National Assembly for Wales) was established in 1999. It will also be the second election since the Senedd changed its name in May 2020, and the first following reforms to the voting system which increased the size of the Senedd from 60 members to 96 and shortened its term from five years to four. [2] [3]
The following MSs have announced their intention not run for re-election:
MS | Constituency/Region | First elected | Party | Date announced | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mark Drakeford | Cardiff West | 2011 | Welsh Labour | 9 August 2023 [4] | |
Vaughan Gething | Cardiff South and Penarth | 2011 | Welsh Labour | 7 September 2024 [5] | |
In all prior elections since its establishment as the Welsh Assembly in 1999, the Senedd has been elected through the additional member system, under which 40 out of 60 seats were elected by the first past the post system from single-member constituencies (the same as those used for Westminster), while the remaining 20 were attributed regionally (in 5 regions of 4 seats) on the basis of a second vote for a closed party list of candidates. The additional member seats in each region were allocated from the lists by the D'Hondt method, with constituency results being taken into account in the allocation.
Following the approval of the Senedd Reform Act, the size of the Senedd will be increased from 60 to 96 MSs, all elected through closed party list proportional representation (using the D'Hondt method). The elections will be organised in 16 six-member constituencies created by pairing up the 32 redrawn Westminster constituencies. [6] [7]
Although the new system would only be ready and used for elections held after 6 April 2026, to allow time for the new constituencies to be drawn up. [8] The next election is due to be held on 7 May 2026. [9]
Another reform bill, which is yet to be adopted as of May 2024, would provide for mandatory "zipping" of male and female candidates in the list to ensure that for every party, half of the Members will be women (unlike the voluntary all-women shortlists used until 2022 by the Labour Party).[ citation needed ]
Dates conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample size | Lab | Con | Plaid Cymru | Green | Lib Dems | AWA | Reform | Others | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
6 Aug 2024 | Eluned Morgan becomes First Minister of Wales | |||||||||||
5–18 Jul 2024 | Welsh Election Study | N/A | 2,565 | 25% | 16% | 24% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 16% | 1% | 1 |
27 Jun – 1 Jul 2024 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,072 | 27% | 18% | 23% | 5% | 6% | – | 18% | 3% | 4 |
5–7 Jun 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 960 | 36% | 22% | 18% | 6% | 6% | 2% | 11% | 0% | 14 |
30 May – 3 Jun 2024 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,066 | 30% | 19% | 23% | 6% | 6% | – | 12% | 4% | 7 |
18–19 May 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 900 | 37% | 20% | 20% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 10% | 0% | 17 |
8 May 2024 | The Senedd Reform Act is approved, implementing a new one-list electoral system by 2026. |
The following polls used questions designed for the two forms of voting in previous Senedd elections, that are to be abolished in the next Senedd election planned for 2026.
Dates conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample size | Lab | Con | Plaid Cymru | Green | Lib Dems | AWA | UKIP | Reform | Others | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 Jun 2024 | The Senedd Reform Act receives Royal assent, abolishing the additional member system by 2026. | ||||||||||||
22–23 Apr 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 840 | 33% | 18% | 19% | 6% | 7% | 4% | – | 12% | 1% | 14 |
23–24 Mar 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 878 | 32% | 16% | 18% | 9% | 7% | 6% | – | 11% | 1% | 14 |
20 Mar 2024 | Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales [10] | ||||||||||||
18 Feb 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 874 | 29% | 16% | 25% | 4% | 8% | 7% | – | 10% | 1% | 4 |
24–26 Jan 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,100 | 34% | 19% | 21% | 6% | 6% | 6% | – | 7% | 1% | 13 |
10–11 Dec 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,086 | 28% | 20% | 24% | 7% | 8% | 4% | – | 7% | 1% | 4 |
12–13 Nov 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,100 | 32% | 21% | 18% | 9% | 6% | 5% | – | 7% | 1% | 11 |
14–15 Oct 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 959 | 31% | 21% | 24% | 4% | 5% | 7% | – | 8% | – | 10 |
16–17 Sep 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,172 | 35% | 21% | 18% | 6% | 12% | 2% | – | 5% | 1% | 14 |
1–6 Sep 2023 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,051 | 34% | 16% | 20% | 6% | 6% | 9% | 1% | 6% | 2% | 14 |
13–14 Aug 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,068 | 31% | 19% | 22% | 6% | 10% | – | – | 10% | 3% | 9 |
14–16 Jul 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,050 | 33% | 20% | 19% | 6% | 10% | – | – | 6% | 4% | 13 |
17–18 Jun 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,000 | 30% | 22% | 20% | 6% | 9% | – | – | 8% | 4% | 8 |
12–17 May 2023 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,064 | 36% | 16% | 18% | 7% | 7% | 5% | 1% | 7% | 1% | 18 |
14–15 May 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,058 | 30% | 21% | 24% | 4% | 10% | – | – | 8% | 4% | 6 |
15–17 Apr 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,251 | 32% | 22% | 23% | 7% | 8% | – | – | 7% | 2% | 9 |
3–7 Feb 2023 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,081 | 39% | 18% | 20% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 0% | 6% | 1% | 19 |
25 Nov – 1 Dec 2022 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,042 | 38% | 16% | 23% | 5% | 4% | 8% | 2% | 4% | 2% Gwlad on 1% Other on 1% | 15 |
20–22 Sep 2022 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,014 | 37% | 18% | 21% | 5% | 5% | 7% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 16 |
12–16 Jun 2022 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,020 | 31% | 21% | 24% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 2% | 6% | 2% Gwlad on 1% Other on 1% | 7 |
25 Feb – 1 Mar 2022 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,086 | 34% | 23% | 20% | 4% | 6% | 6% | 1% | 3% | 2% Gwlad on 1% Other on 1% | 11 |
13–16 Dec 2021 | YouGov | ITV Wales | 1,009 | 35% | 22% | 19% | 7% | 3% | 6% | 2% | 5% | 1% | 13 |
13–16 Sep 2021 | YouGov | ITV Wales | 1,057 | 33% | 26% | 19% | 5% | 4% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 7 |
6 May 2021 | 2021 Senedd election [11] | – | 36.2% | 25.1% | 20.7% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 2.9% | 11.1 |
Dates conducted | Pollster | Client | Sample size | Lab | Con | Plaid Cymru | Lib Dems | AWA | Green | Reform | Other | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8 May 2024 | The Senedd Reform Act is approved, abolishing the additional member system by 2026. | |||||||||||
22–23 Apr 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 840 | 37% | 21% | 22% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 10% | 0% | 15 |
23–24 Mar 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 878 | 36% | 21% | 21% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 11% | 1% | 15 |
20 Mar 2024 | Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales [10] | |||||||||||
18 Feb 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 874 | 34% | 21% | 19% | 4% | 6% | 3% | 13% | 0% | 13 |
24–26 Jan 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,100 | 39% | 25% | 18% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 9% | 1% | 14 |
10–11 Dec 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,086 | 41% | 22% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 3% | 7% | 0% | 19 |
12–13 Nov 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,100 | 40% | 23% | 18% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 7% | 1% | 17 |
14–15 Oct 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 959 | 37% | 27% | 18% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 6% | - | 10 |
16–17 Sep 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,172 | 39% | 27% | 18% | 5% | 1% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 12 |
1–6 Sep 2023 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,051 | 41% | 18% | 19% | 6% | – | 4% | 8% | 7% | 22 |
13–14 Aug 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,068 | 37% | 21% | 20% | 6% | – | 3% | 9% | 4% | 16 |
14–16 Jul 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,050 | 42% | 22% | 16% | 6% | – | 3% | 7% | 3% | 20 |
17–18 Jun 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,000 | 36% | 22% | 19% | 7% | – | 3% | 10% | 3% | 14 |
12–17 May 2023 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,064 | 40% | 18% | 17% | 7% | – | 5% | 8% | 4% | 22 |
14–15 May 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,058 | 38% | 23% | 20% | 7% | – | 3% | 7% | 2% | 15 |
15–17 Apr 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,251 | 41% | 21% | 20% | 5% | – | 4% | 8% | 2% | 20 |
3–7 Feb 2023 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,081 | 43% | 18% | 20% | 4% | – | 4% | 9% | 1% | 23 |
25 Nov – 1 Dec 2022 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,042 | 44% | 17% | 20% | 6% | – | 3% | 7% | 4% | 24 |
20–22 Sep 2022 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,014 | 40% | 20% | 22% | 6% | – | 3% | 5% | 4% | 18 |
12–16 Jun 2022 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,020 | 37% | 24% | 21% | 6% | – | 5% | 5% | 3% | 13 |
25 Feb – 1 Mar 2022 | YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1,086 | 38% | 24% | 21% | 6% | – | 3% | 5% | 4% | 14 |
13–16 Dec 2021 | YouGov | ITV Wales | 1,009 | 40% | 23% | 17% | 4% | – | 5% | 7% | 4% | 17 |
13–16 Sep 2021 | YouGov | ITV Wales | 1,057 | 37% | 27% | 19% | 5% | – | 4% | 5% | 5% | 10 |
6 May 2021 | 2021 Senedd election [11] | – | 39.9% | 26.1% | 20.3% | 4.9% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 4.0% | 13.8 |
A member of the Senedd is a representative elected to the Senedd. There are sixty members, with forty members chosen to represent individual Senedd constituencies, and twenty to represent the five electoral regions of the Senedd in Wales.
The Senedd, officially known as the Welsh Parliament in English and Senedd Cymru in Welsh, is the devolved, unicameral legislature of Wales. A democratically elected body, it makes laws for Wales, agrees to certain taxes, and scrutinises the Welsh Government. It is a bilingual institution, with both Welsh and English being the official languages of its business. From its creation in May 1999 until May 2020, the Senedd was officially known as the National Assembly for Wales and was often simply called the Welsh Assembly.
The first minister of Wales is the leader of the Welsh Government and keeper of the Welsh Seal. The first minister chairs the Welsh Cabinet and is primarily responsible for the formulation, development and presentation of Welsh Government policy. Additional functions of the first minister include promoting and representing Wales in an official capacity, at home and abroad, and responsibility for constitutional affairs, as they relate to devolution and the Welsh Government.
Mair Eluned Morgan, Baroness Morgan of Ely,, is a Welsh Labour politician who has served as First Minister of Wales and Leader of Welsh Labour since 2024. She previously served as Cabinet Secretary for Health and Social Care in the Welsh Government from 2021 to 2024.
The Senedd constituencies and electoral regions are the electoral districts used to elect members of the Senedd to the Senedd, and have been used in some form since the first election of the then National Assembly for Wales in 1999. New boundaries were introduced for the 2007 elections and currently consist of forty constituencies and five regions. The five electoral regions are: Mid and West Wales, North Wales, South Wales Central, South Wales East, and South Wales West, with the forty constituencies listed below. Voting last took place in all districts in the 2021 Senedd election, and is not used for local government.
South Wales East is an electoral region of the Senedd, consisting of eight constituencies. The region elects 12 members, eight directly elected constituency members and four additional members. The electoral region was first used in 1999, when the National Assembly for Wales was created.
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Aberavon is a constituency of the Senedd. It elects one Member of the Senedd by the first past the post method of election. Also, however, it is one of seven constituencies in the South Wales West electoral region, which elects four additional members, in addition to seven constituency members, to produce a degree of proportional representation for the region as a whole.
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The 2021 Senedd election took place on Thursday 6 May 2021 to elect 60 members to the Senedd. It was the sixth devolved general election since the Senedd was established in 1999. The election was held alongside the Scottish Parliament election, English local elections, London Assembly and mayoral election and the Hartlepool by-election.
The February–March 2024 Welsh Labour leadership election took place between February and March 2024 to select Mark Drakeford's successor as leader of Welsh Labour, who in turn would become First Minister of Wales. Drakeford announced his resignation and retirement on 13 December 2023, five years after his election. Voting began in February 2024 with the new leader announced on 16 March 2024. Vaughan Gething won the election with 51.7% of the vote. The next scheduled Senedd election is due on or before 7 May 2026.
The Senedd Cymru Act 2024 is an act of Senedd Cymru expanding and reforming the Senedd in Wales. Provisions of the act include creating sixteen larger constituencies, each electing six members of the Senedd (MSs) by proportional representation.
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