Next Senedd election

Last updated

Next Senedd election
Flag of Wales (1959-present).svg
  2021 due on or before 7 May 2026

All 96 seats to the Senedd
49 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
  Official portrait of Eluned Morgan (cropped).jpg Andrew RT Davies 2016 (cropped).jpg
Leader Eluned Morgan Andrew RT Davies
Party Labour Conservative
Leader since 24 July 2024 24 January 2021
Leader's seat Mid and West Wales South Wales Central
Current seats30 (out of 60)16 (out of 60)
Seats neededIncrease2.svg19Increase2.svg33

  Rhun ap Iorwerth official portrait (cropped).jpg Jane-dodds (cropped).jpg
Leader Rhun ap Iorwerth Jane Dodds
Party Plaid Cymru Liberal Democrats
Leader since 16 June 2023 3 November 2017
Leader's seat Ynys Môn Mid and West Wales
Current seats12 (out of 60)1 (out of 60)
Seats neededIncrease2.svg37Increase2.svg48

Incumbent First Minister

Eluned Morgan
Labour



The next Senedd election is due to be held on or before 7 May 2026 [1] to elect 96 members to the Senedd (Welsh Parliament; Welsh : Senedd Cymru). It will be the seventh devolved general election since the Senedd (formerly the National Assembly for Wales) was established in 1999. It will also be the second election since the Senedd changed its name in May 2020, and the first following reforms to the voting system which increased the size of the Senedd from 60 members to 96 and shortened its term from five years to four. [2] [3]

Retiring members

The following MSs have announced their intention not run for re-election:

MSConstituency/RegionFirst electedPartyDate announced
Mark Drakeford Cardiff West 2011 Welsh Labour 9 August 2023 [4]
Vaughan Gething Cardiff South and Penarth 2011 Welsh Labour 7 September 2024 [5]

Electoral system

In all prior elections since its establishment as the Welsh Assembly in 1999, the Senedd has been elected through the additional member system, under which 40 out of 60 seats were elected by the first past the post system from single-member constituencies (the same as those used for Westminster), while the remaining 20 were attributed regionally (in 5 regions of 4 seats) on the basis of a second vote for a closed party list of candidates. The additional member seats in each region were allocated from the lists by the D'Hondt method, with constituency results being taken into account in the allocation.

Following the approval of the Senedd Reform Act, the size of the Senedd will be increased from 60 to 96 MSs, all elected through closed party list proportional representation (using the D'Hondt method). The elections will be organised in 16 six-member constituencies created by pairing up the 32 redrawn Westminster constituencies. [6] [7]

Although the new system would only be ready and used for elections held after 6 April 2026, to allow time for the new constituencies to be drawn up. [8] The next election is due to be held on 7 May 2026. [9]

Another reform bill, which is yet to be adopted as of May 2024, would provide for mandatory "zipping" of male and female candidates in the list to ensure that for every party, half of the Members will be women (unlike the voluntary all-women shortlists used until 2022 by the Labour Party).[ citation needed ]

Opinion polling

LOESS curve of polling conducted List opinion polling for the next Senedd election.svg
LOESS curve of polling conducted
Dates
conducted
PollsterClientSample
size
Lab Con Plaid Cymru Green Lib Dems AWA Reform OthersLead
6 Aug 2024 Eluned Morgan becomes First Minister of Wales
5–18 Jul 2024 Welsh Election Study N/A2,56525%16%24%6%6%7%16%1%1
27 Jun1 Jul 2024 YouGov Barn Cymru1,07227%18%23%5%6%18%3%4
5–7 Jun 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A96036%22%18%6%6%2%11%0%14
30 May3 Jun 2024 YouGov Barn Cymru1,06630%19%23%6%6%12%4%7
18–19 May 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A90037%20%20%5%3%5%10%0%17
8 May 2024The Senedd Reform Act is approved, implementing a new one-list electoral system by 2026.

Past opinion polling

The following polls used questions designed for the two forms of voting in previous Senedd elections, that are to be abolished in the next Senedd election planned for 2026.

Regional vote

Dates
conducted
PollsterClientSample
size
Lab Con Plaid Cymru Green Lib Dems AWA UKIP Reform OthersLead
24 Jun 2024The Senedd Reform Act receives Royal assent, abolishing the additional member system by 2026.
22–23 Apr 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A84033%18%19%6%7%4%12%1%14
23–24 Mar 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A87832%16%18%9%7%6%11%1%14
20 Mar 2024 Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales [10]
18 Feb 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A87429%16%25%4%8%7%10%1%4
24–26 Jan 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,10034%19%21%6%6%6%7%1%13
10–11 Dec 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,08628%20%24%7%8%4%7%1%4
12–13 Nov 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,10032%21%18%9%6%5%7%1%11
14–15 Oct 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A95931%21%24%4%5%7%8%10
16–17 Sep 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,17235%21%18%6%12%2%5%1%14
1–6 Sep 2023 YouGov Barn Cymru1,05134%16%20%6%6%9%1%6%2%14
13–14 Aug 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,06831%19%22%6%10%10%3%9
14–16 Jul 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,05033%20%19%6%10%6%4%13
17–18 Jun 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,00030%22%20%6%9%8%4%8
12–17 May 2023 YouGov Barn Cymru1,06436%16%18%7%7%5%1%7%1%18
14–15 May 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,05830%21%24%4%10%8%4%6
15–17 Apr 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,25132%22%23%7%8%7%2%9
3–7 Feb 2023 YouGov Barn Cymru1,08139%18%20%5%5%6%0%6%1%19
25 Nov1 Dec 2022 YouGov Barn Cymru1,04238%16%23%5%4%8%2%4%
2%
Gwlad on 1%
Other on 1%
15
20–22 Sep 2022 YouGov Barn Cymru1,01437%18%21%5%5%7%2%4%1%16
12–16 Jun 2022 YouGov Barn Cymru1,02031%21%24%6%5%6%2%6%
2%
Gwlad on 1%
Other on 1%
7
25 Feb1 Mar 2022 YouGov Barn Cymru1,08634%23%20%4%6%6%1%3%
2%
Gwlad on 1%
Other on 1%
11
13–16 Dec 2021 YouGov ITV Wales1,00935%22%19%7%3%6%2%5%1%13
13–16 Sep 2021 YouGov ITV Wales1,05733%26%19%5%4%6%4%2%1%7
6 May 2021 2021 Senedd election [11] 36.2%25.1%20.7%4.4%4.3%3.7%1.6%1.1%2.9%11.1

Constituency vote

LOESS curve of the polling for the next Senedd Election Constituency Votes. Constituency opinion polling for the next Senedd election.svg
LOESS curve of the polling for the next Senedd Election Constituency Votes.
Dates
conducted
PollsterClientSample
size
Lab Con Plaid Cymru Lib Dems AWA Green Reform OtherLead
8 May 2024The Senedd Reform Act is approved, abolishing the additional member system by 2026.
22–23 Apr 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A84037%21%22%4%3%3%10%0%15
23–24 Mar 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A87836%21%21%3%3%3%11%1%15
20 Mar 2024 Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales [10]
18 Feb 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A87434%21%19%4%6%3%13%0%13
24–26 Jan 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,10039%25%18%3%3%4%9%1%14
10–11 Dec 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,08641%22%17%7%3%3%7%0%19
12–13 Nov 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,10040%23%18%3%3%4%7%1%17
14–15 Oct 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A95937%27%18%4%5%3%6%-10
16–17 Sep 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,17239%27%18%5%1%6%3%1%12
1–6 Sep 2023 YouGov Barn Cymru1,05141%18%19%6%4%8%7%22
13–14 Aug 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,06837%21%20%6%3%9%4%16
14–16 Jul 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,05042%22%16%6%3%7%3%20
17–18 Jun 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,00036%22%19%7%3%10%3%14
12–17 May 2023 YouGov Barn Cymru1,06440%18%17%7%5%8%4%22
14–15 May 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,05838%23%20%7%3%7%2%15
15–17 Apr 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,25141%21%20%5%4%8%2%20
3–7 Feb 2023 YouGov Barn Cymru1,08143%18%20%4%4%9%1%23
25 Nov1 Dec 2022 YouGov Barn Cymru1,04244%17%20%6%3%7%4%24
20–22 Sep 2022 YouGov Barn Cymru1,01440%20%22%6%3%5%4%18
12–16 Jun 2022 YouGov Barn Cymru1,02037%24%21%6%5%5%3%13
25 Feb1 Mar 2022 YouGov Barn Cymru1,08638%24%21%6%3%5%4%14
13–16 Dec 2021 YouGov ITV Wales1,00940%23%17%4%5%7%4%17
13–16 Sep 2021 YouGov ITV Wales1,05737%27%19%5%4%5%5%10
6 May 2021 2021 Senedd election [11] 39.9%26.1%20.3%4.9%1.6%1.6%1.6%4.0%13.8

See also

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References

  1. Owens, Cathy (8 September 2021). "What to expect from the next five years in Welsh politics". WalesOnline. Retrieved 29 September 2021.
  2. MSs approve Senedd reform bill - nation.cymru
  3. Plans for more Senedd politicians get go-ahead - BBC
  4. "Mark Drakeford to quit Senedd at next election". BBC News . 9 August 2023. Retrieved 9 August 2023.
  5. "Former Welsh first minister Vaughan Gething to stand down at next election". The Guardian . 7 September 2024. Retrieved 7 September 2024.
  6. "Plans for more Senedd politicians get go-ahead". BBC News. 17 May 2022. Retrieved 14 June 2022.
  7. "Senedd reform | GOV.WALES". www.gov.wales. 9 May 2024. Retrieved 17 May 2024.
  8. "Senedd Cymru (Members and Elections) Act 2024". legislation.gov.uk.
  9. "See exactly when the next election in Wales will be". South Wales Argus. 20 September 2023. Retrieved 19 August 2024.
  10. 1 2 "Vaughan Gething confirmed as Wales' new first minister". BBC News. 19 March 2024. Retrieved 20 March 2024.
  11. 1 2 Davies, Owain; Holzinger, Owen; McCarthy, Joanne; Jones, Helen (2021). Senedd Election 2021: Research Briefing (PDF). Senedd Research. p. 16.