Next Senedd election

Next Senedd election

←  2021 On or before 7 May 2026
←  outgoing members
All 96 seats to the Senedd 49 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Leader Eluned Morgan Darren Millar Party Labour Conservative Leader since 24 July 2024 5 December 2024 Leader's seat Mid and West Wales Clwyd West Current seats 30 (out of 60) 16 (out of 60) Seats needed 19 33   Leader Rhun ap Iorwerth Jane Dodds Party Plaid Cymru Liberal Democrats Leader since 16 June 2023 3 November 2017 Leader's seat Ynys Môn Mid and West Wales Current seats 12 (out of 60) 1 (out of 60) Seats needed 37 48
Incumbent First Minister Eluned Morgan Labour

The next Senedd election is due to be held by 7 May 2026 ^[1] to elect 96 members to the Senedd (Welsh Parliament; Welsh : Senedd Cymru). It will be the seventh devolved general election since the Senedd (formerly the National Assembly for Wales) was established in 1999. If held in 2026 it will also be the first election following current reforms to the voting system, which would increase the size of the Senedd from 60 members to 96, adopting a party-list voting system, reducing the number of constituencies to sixteen, and shortening its term from five years to four. ^{[2] [3]} It will also be the second election since the Senedd changed its name in May 2020.

Retiring members

The following MSs have announced their intention to not run for re-election:

MS	Constituency/Region	First elected	Party		Date announced
Mark Drakeford	Cardiff West	2011		Welsh Labour	9 August 2023 [4]
Vaughan Gething	Cardiff South and Penarth	2011		Welsh Labour	7 September 2024 [5]
Lee Waters	Llanelli	2016		Welsh Labour	24 October 2024 [6]
Dawn Bowden	Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney	2016		Welsh Labour	17 January 2025 [7]
Mick Antoniw	Pontypridd	2011		Welsh Labour	24 January 2025 [8]
Joyce Watson	Mid and West Wales	2007		Welsh Labour	25 January 2025 [9]
Rebecca Evans	Gower	2011		Welsh Labour	8 February 2025
Julie Morgan	Cardiff North	2011		Welsh Labour	11 February 2025 [10]
Lesley Griffiths	Wrexham	2007		Welsh Labour	14 February 2025 [11]
John Griffiths	Newport East	1999		Welsh Labour	17 February 2025 [12]
Jane Hutt	Vale of Glamorgan	1999		Welsh Labour	21 February 2025 [13]
Julie James	Swansea West	2011		Welsh Labour	21 February 2025 [13]
Jenny Rathbone	Cardiff Central	2011		Welsh Labour	21 February 2025 [14]

Electoral system

See also: Senedd constituencies and electoral regions

In all prior elections since its establishment as the Welsh Assembly in 1999, the Senedd has been elected through the additional member system, under which 40 out of 60 seats were elected by the first past the post system from single-member constituencies (the same as those used for Westminster), while the remaining 20 were attributed regionally (in 5 regions of 4 seats) on the basis of a second vote for a closed party list of candidates. The additional member seats in each region were allocated from the lists by the D'Hondt method, with constituency results being taken into account in the allocation.

Following the approval of the Senedd Reform Act, the size of the Senedd will be increased from 60 to 96 MSs, all elected through closed party list proportional representation (using the D'Hondt method). The elections will be organised in 16 six-member constituencies created by pairing up the 32 redrawn Westminster constituencies. ^{[15] [16]}

Although the new system would only be ready and used for elections held after 6 April 2026, to allow time for the new constituencies to be drawn up. ^[17] The next election is due to be held on 7 May 2026. ^[18]

Another proposed reform bill would have provided for mandatory "zipping" of male and female candidates in the list to ensure that for every party, half of the Members will be women. However, this bill was scrapped in September 2024. ^[19]

Campaign

On 2 February 2025, Welsh Labour leader Eluned Morgan said she would be open to a coalition with Plaid Cymru after the election "if needs must". She ruled out a coalition with the right-wing populist party Reform UK, as she thought there was a "red line on that one". She rejected the suggestion put to her that Welsh Labour was under threat at the election, explaining that there is "an international shift going on at the moment and we've got several months now to make sure people understand what's at stake here". She also called Reform an "English focused party" with "nothing Welsh about" them. ^[20] A day later, Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth similarly ruled out working with Reform, describing the two parties' worldviews as "fundamentally different." ^[21]

Opinion polling

Main article: Opinion polling for the next Senedd election

This section is transcluded from Opinion polling for the next Senedd election. (edit | history)

LOESS curve of polling conducted

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Lab	Con	Plaid Cymru	Green	Lib Dems	Reform	Others	Lead
25–29 Nov2024	YouGov [22]	Barn Cymru	1,121	23%	19%	24%	6%	5%	23%	1%	1
4–24 Nov2024	Beaufort Research	Nation.Cymru	500	27%	18%	17%	6%	6%	24%	2%	3
18 Oct–4 Nov2024	Survation [s 1]	Reform UK	2,006	29%	18%	20%	7%	7%	19%	1%	9
6 Aug2024	Eluned Morgan becomes First Minister of Wales [23]
5–18 Jul2024	Welsh Election Study	N/A	2,565	25%	16%	24%	6%	6%	16%	8% AWA on 7% Other on 1%	1
27 Jun–1 Jul2024	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,072	27%	18%	23%	5%	6%	18%	3%	4
5–7 Jun2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	960	36%	22%	18%	6%	6%	11%	2% AWA on 2% Other on 0%	14
30 May–3 Jun2024	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,066	30%	19%	23%	6%	6%	12%	4%	7
18–19 May2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	900	37%	20%	20%	5%	3%	10%	5% AWA on 5% Other on 0%	17
8 May2024	The Senedd Reform Act is approved, implementing a new one-list electoral system by 2026.
6 May2021	2021 Senedd election (regional) [24]		–	36.2%	25.1%	20.7%	4.4%	4.3%	1.1%	8.2%	11.1
6 May2021	2021 Senedd election (constituency) [24]		–	39.9%	26.1%	20.3%	1.6%	4.9%	1.6%	5.6%	13.8

Past opinion polling

The following polls used questions designed for the two forms of voting in previous Senedd elections, that are to be abolished in the next Senedd election planned for 2026.

Regional vote

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Lab	Con	Plaid Cymru	Green	Lib Dems	Reform	Others	Lead
24 Jun2024	The Senedd Reform Act receives Royal assent, abolishing the additional member system by 2026.
22–23 Apr2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	840	33%	18%	19%	6%	7%	12%	5% AWA on 4% Other on 1%	14
23–24 Mar2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	878	32%	16%	18%	9%	7%	11%	7% AWA on 6% Other on 1%	14
20 Mar2024	Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales [25]
18 Feb2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	874	29%	16%	25%	4%	8%	10%	8% AWA on 7% Other on 1%	4
24–26 Jan2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,100	34%	19%	21%	6%	6%	7%	7% AWA on 6% Other on 1%	13
10–11 Dec2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,086	28%	20%	24%	7%	8%	7%	5% AWA on 4% Other on 1%	4
12–13 Nov2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,100	32%	21%	18%	9%	6%	7%	6% AWA on 5% Other on 1%	11
14–15 Oct2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	959	31%	21%	24%	4%	5%	8%	7% AWA on 7% Other on 0%	10
16–17 Sep2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,172	35%	21%	18%	6%	12%	5%	3% AWA on 2% Other on 1%	14
1–6 Sep2023	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,051	34%	16%	20%	6%	6%	6%	12% AWA on 9% UKIP on 1% Other on 2%	14
13–14 Aug2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,068	31%	19%	22%	6%	10%	10%	3%	9
14–16 Jul2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,050	33%	20%	19%	6%	10%	6%	4%	13
17–18 Jun2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,000	30%	22%	20%	6%	9%	8%	4%	8
1 Jun2023	Rhun ap Iorwerth becomes Leader of Plaid Cymru
12–17 May2023	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,064	36%	16%	18%	7%	7%	7%	7% AWA on 5% UKIP on 1% Other on 1%	18
14–15 May2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,058	30%	21%	24%	4%	10%	8%	4%	6
15–17 Apr2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,251	32%	22%	23%	7%	8%	7%	2%	9
3–7 Feb2023	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,081	39%	18%	20%	5%	5%	6%	8% AWA on 6% Other on 2%	19
25 Nov–1 Dec2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,042	38%	16%	23%	5%	2%	4%	12% AWA on 8% UKIP on 2% Gwlad on 1% Other on 1%	15
20–22 Sep2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,014	37%	18%	21%	5%	5%	4%	10% AWA on 7% UKIP on 2% Other on 1%	16
12–16 Jun2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,020	31%	21%	24%	6%	5%	6%	10% AWA on 6% UKIP on 2% Gwlad on 1% Other on 1%	7
25 Feb–1 Mar2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,086	34%	23%	20%	4%	6%	3%	9% AWA on 6% UKIP on 1% Gwlad on 1% Other on 1%	11
13–16 Dec2021	YouGov	ITV Wales	1,009	35%	22%	19%	7%	3%	5%	9% AWA on 6% UKIP on 2% Other on 1%	13
13–16 Sep2021	YouGov	ITV Wales	1,057	33%	26%	19%	5%	4%	2%	11% AWA on 6% UKIP on 4% Other on 1%	7
6 May2021	2021 Senedd election [24]		–	36.2%	25.1%	20.7%	4.4%	4.3%	1.1%	8.2%	11.1

Constituency vote

LOESS curve of the polling for the next Senedd Election Constituency Votes.

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Lab	Con	Plaid Cymru	Lib Dems	Green	Reform	Other	Lead
8 May2024	The Senedd Reform Act is approved, abolishing the additional member system by 2026.
22–23 Apr2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	840	37%	21%	22%	4%	3%	10%	3% AWA on 3% Other on 0%	15
23–24 Mar2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	878	36%	21%	21%	3%	3%	11%	4% AWA on 3% Other on 1%	15
20 Mar2024	Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales [25]
18 Feb2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	874	34%	21%	19%	4%	3%	13%	6% AWA on 7% Other on 1%	13
24–26 Jan2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,100	39%	25%	18%	3%	4%	9%	4% AWA on 3% Other on 1%	14
10–11 Dec2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,086	41%	22%	17%	7%	3%	7%	3% AWA on 3% Other on 0%	19
12–13 Nov2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,100	40%	23%	18%	3%	4%	7%	4% AWA on 3% Other on 1%	17
14–15 Oct2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	959	37%	27%	18%	4%	3%	6%	5% AWA on 5% Other on 0%	10
16–17 Sep2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,172	39%	27%	18%	5%	6%	3%	2% AWA on 1% Other on 1%	12
1–6 Sep2023	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,051	41%	18%	19%	6%	4%	8%	7%	22
13–14 Aug2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,068	37%	21%	20%	6%	3%	9%	4%	16
14–16 Jul2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,050	42%	22%	16%	6%	3%	7%	3%	20
17–18 Jun2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,000	36%	22%	19%	7%	3%	10%	3%	14
12–17 May2023	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,064	40%	18%	17%	7%	5%	8%	4%	22
14–15 May2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,058	38%	23%	20%	7%	3%	7%	2%	15
15–17 Apr2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,251	41%	21%	20%	5%	4%	8%	2%	20
3–7 Feb2023	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,081	43%	18%	20%	4%	4%	9%	1%	23
25 Nov–1 Dec2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,042	44%	17%	20%	6%	3%	7%	4%	24
20–22 Sep2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,014	40%	20%	22%	6%	3%	5%	4%	18
12–16 Jun2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,020	37%	24%	21%	6%	5%	5%	3%	13
25 Feb–1 Mar2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,086	38%	24%	21%	6%	3%	5%	4%	14
13–16 Dec2021	YouGov	ITV Wales	1,009	40%	23%	17%	4%	5%	7%	4%	17
13–16 Sep2021	YouGov	ITV Wales	1,057	37%	27%	19%	5%	4%	5%	5%	10
6 May2021	2021 Senedd election [24]		–	39.9%	26.1%	20.3%	4.9%	1.6%	1.6%	5.6%	13.8

Notes

1. Survation asked voters to give their preferences under the current Additional Member System. The figure shown in this table is the proportional (regional) vote, as that is the closest equivalent to the new party list system.

See also

• Next Scottish Parliament election
• Next Northern Ireland Assembly election
• 2024 United Kingdom general election in Wales
• 2024 United Kingdom general election

References

1. Owens, Cathy (8 September 2021). "What to expect from the next five years in Welsh politics". WalesOnline. Retrieved 29 September 2021.
2. Mansfield, Mark (8 May 2024). "MSs approve Senedd reform bill". Nation.Cymru.
3. Browne, Adrian; Deans, David (8 May 2024). "Senedd expansion plans get go-ahead in Cardiff Bay vote". BBC Wales.
4. "Mark Drakeford to quit Senedd at next election". BBC News . 9 August 2023. Retrieved 9 August 2023.
5. "Former Welsh first minister Vaughan Gething to stand down at next election". The Guardian . 7 September 2024. Retrieved 7 September 2024.
6. "Wales' 20mph minister to step down in 2026". BBC News. 24 October 2024. Retrieved 25 October 2024.
7. "Minister to quit ahead of Wales' 2026 election". BBC News. 17 January 2025. Retrieved 18 January 2025.
8. Price, Emily (24 January 2025). "Senior Labour politician to step down at next Senedd election". Nation.Cymru. Retrieved 24 January 2025.
9. Mansfield, Mark (25 January 2025). "Joyce Watson announces she is stepping down at next Senedd election". Nation.Cymru. Retrieved 25 January 2025.
10. Mosalski, Ruth (22 January 2025). "The Senedd members and ministers who won't stand for Senedd re-election". Wales Online. Retrieved 12 February 2025.
11. "Lesley Griffiths: Labour ex-minister quits ahead of 2026 election". www.bbc.com. 14 February 2025. Retrieved 17 February 2025.
12. "'It has been a huge honour': Long-serving Newport MS to step down". South Wales Argus. 17 February 2025. Retrieved 17 February 2025.
13. Browne, Adrian (21 February 2025). "UK's longest-serving female minister leaves Senedd". BBC News. Retrieved 22 February 2025.
14. Rathbone, Jenny [@JennyRathbone] (21 February 2025). "It has been my privilege to represent..." (Tweet). Retrieved 25 February 2025– via Twitter.
15. "Plans for more Senedd politicians get go-ahead". BBC News. 17 May 2022. Retrieved 14 June 2022.
16. "Senedd reform | GOV.WALES". www.gov.wales. 9 May 2024. Retrieved 17 May 2024.
17. "Senedd Cymru (Members and Elections) Act 2024". legislation.gov.uk.
18. "See exactly when the next election in Wales will be". South Wales Argus. 20 September 2023. Retrieved 19 August 2024.
19. Browne, Adrian (24 September 2024). "Senedd backs U-turn on election gender quotas". BBC News . Retrieved 26 October 2024.
20. Fortescue, Ali (2 February 2025). "Could we be about to witness a seismic political shift in Wales?". Sky News. Retrieved 2 February 2025.
21. Rodgers, Sienna (3 February 2025). "Plaid Cymru Leader Rules Out Working With Reform In Any Way". Politics Home . Archived from the original on 6 February 2025. Retrieved 6 February 2025.
22. "Plaid Cymru leads new Senedd poll with Conservatives in 4th place". Nation.Cymru. 1 December 2024. Retrieved 2 December 2024.
23. Allen, Briony (6 August 2024). "Welsh Labour leadership: How Eluned Morgan was selected as first minister of Wales". Institute for Government. Retrieved 3 March 2025.
24. Davies, Owain; Holzinger, Owen; McCarthy, Joanne; Jones, Helen (2021). Senedd Election 2021: Research Briefing (PDF). Senedd Research. p. 16.
25. Browne, Adrian; Deans, David (19 March 2024). "Vaughan Gething confirmed as Wales' new first minister". BBC News. Retrieved 30 March 2024.

External links

• Next Senedd election