Opinion polling for the next Senedd election

In the run-up to the next Senedd election, various organisations are conducting opinion polls to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in this list. The pollsters listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abided by its disclosure rules.

The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous Senedd election, held on 6 May 2021, to the next election, which can be held no later than 7 May 2026.

Opinion polling

Polling using the 2026 electoral system

For the election to be held in May 2026, Wales has been divided into 16 multi-member constitencies, each based on a combination of two adjacent Westminster Parliamentary constituences. Each of these 16 constituencies will elect 6 members of the Welsh Parliament using a system of proportional representation.

LOESS curve of polling conducted

  Sample size below 1,000. ^[a]

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Lab	Con	Plaid Cymru	Green	Lib Dems	Reform	Others	Lead
18 Jun – 3 Jul 2025	Beaufort Research	Nation Cymru	400	27%	13%	21%	6%	5%	25%	2%	2
18 Jun – 3 Jul 2025	More in Common	Sky News	883	23%	10%	26%	4%	7%	28%	2%	2
5–16 Jun 2025	FindOutNow	N/A	2,101	18%	11%	27%	7%	7%	29%	1%	2
23–30 Apr 2025	YouGov	ITV Wales/Cardiff University	1,265	18%	13%	30%	5%	7%	25%	2%	5
10 Mar – 3 Apr 2025	Survation	N/A	809	27%	15%	24%	5%	5%	24%	1%	3
3–23 Mar 2025	Beaufort Research	Nation.Cymru	1,000	27%	16%	24%	5%	4%	23%	1%	3
25–29 Nov 2024	YouGov [2]	Barn Cymru	1,121	23%	19%	24%	6%	5%	23%	1%	1
4–24 Nov 2024	Beaufort Research	Nation.Cymru	500	27%	18%	17%	6%	6%	24%	2%	3
18 Oct – 4 Nov 2024	Survation [s 1]	Reform UK	2,006	29%	18%	20%	7%	7%	19%	1%	9
6 Aug 2024	Eluned Morgan becomes First Minister of Wales [3]
5–18 Jul 2024	Welsh Election Study	N/A	2,565	25%	16%	24%	6%	6%	16%	8% AWA on 7% Other on 1%	1
4 Jul 2024	2024 United Kingdom general election
27 Jun – 1 Jul 2024	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,072	27%	18%	23%	5%	6%	18%	3%	4
5–7 Jun 2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	960	36%	22%	18%	6%	6%	11%	2% AWA on 2% Other on 0%	14
30 May – 3 Jun 2024	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,066	30%	19%	23%	6%	6%	12%	4%	7
18–19 May 2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	900	37%	20%	20%	5%	3%	10%	5% AWA on 5% Other on 0%	17
8 May 2024	The Senedd Reform Act is approved, implementing a new one-list electoral system by 2026.
6 May 2021	2021 Senedd election (regional) [4]		–	36.2%	25.1%	20.7%	4.4%	4.3%	1.1%	8.2%	11.1
6 May 2021	2021 Senedd election (constituency) [4]		–	39.9%	26.1%	20.3%	1.6%	4.9%	1.6%	5.6%	13.8

Past opinion polling

The following polls used questions designed for the two forms of voting in previous Senedd elections, that are to be abolished in the next Senedd election planned for 2026.

Regional vote

  Sample size below 1,000. ^[a]

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Lab	Con	Plaid Cymru	Green	Lib Dems	Reform	AWA	Others	Lead
24 Jun 2024	The Senedd Reform Act receives Royal assent, abolishing the additional member system by 2026.
22–23 Apr 2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	840	33%	18%	19%	6%	7%	12%	5%	1% Other on 1%	14
23–24 Mar 2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	878	32%	16%	18%	9%	7%	11%	6%	1% Other on 1%	14
20 Mar 2024	Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales [5]
18 Feb 2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	874	29%	16%	25%	4%	8%	10%	7%	1% Other on 1%	4
24–26 Jan 2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,100	34%	19%	21%	6%	6%	7%	6%	1% Other on 1%	13
10–11 Dec 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,086	28%	20%	24%	7%	8%	7%	4%	1% Other on 1%	4
12–13 Nov 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,100	32%	21%	18%	9%	6%	7%	5%	1% Other on 1%	11
14–15 Oct 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	959	31%	21%	24%	4%	5%	8%	7%	0% Other on 0%	10
16–17 Sep 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,172	35%	21%	18%	6%	12%	5%	2%	1% Other on 1%	14
1–6 Sep 2023	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,051	34%	16%	20%	6%	6%	6%	9%	3% UKIP on 1% Other on 2%	14
13–14 Aug 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,068	31%	19%	22%	6%	10%	10%	-	3%	9
14–16 Jul 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,050	33%	20%	19%	6%	10%	6%	-	4%	13
17–18 Jun 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,000	30%	22%	20%	6%	9%	8%	-	4%	8
16 Jun 2023	Rhun ap Iorwerth becomes Leader of Plaid Cymru
12–17 May 2023	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,064	36%	16%	18%	7%	7%	7%	5%	2% UKIP on 1% Other on 1%	18
14–15 May 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,058	30%	21%	24%	4%	10%	8%	-	4%	6
15–17 Apr 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,251	32%	22%	23%	7%	8%	7%	-	2%	9
3–7 Feb 2023	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,081	39%	18%	20%	5%	5%	6%	6%	2% Other on 2%	19
25 Nov – 1 Dec 2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,042	38%	16%	23%	5%	2%	4%	8%	4% UKIP on 2% Gwlad on 1% Other on 1%	15
20–22 Sep 2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,014	37%	18%	21%	5%	5%	4%	7%	3% UKIP on 2% Other on 1%	16
12–16 Jun 2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,020	31%	21%	24%	6%	5%	6%	6%	4% UKIP on 2% Gwlad on 1% Other on 1%	7
25 Feb – 1 Mar 2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,086	34%	23%	20%	4%	6%	3%	6%	3% UKIP on 1% Gwlad on 1% Other on 1%	11
13–16 Dec 2021	YouGov	ITV Wales	1,009	35%	22%	19%	7%	3%	5%	6%	3% UKIP on 2% Other on 1%	13
13–16 Sep 2021	YouGov	ITV Wales	1,057	33%	26%	19%	5%	4%	2%	6%	5% UKIP on 4% Other on 1%	7
6 May 2021	2021 Senedd election [4]		–	36.2%	25.1%	20.7%	4.4%	4.3%	1.1%	3.7%	4.5%	11.1

By section

Date conducted	Subsection	Sample size	Lab	Con	Plaid Cymru	Green	Lib Dems	Reform	Lead
November 2024 [6]	South West Wales and the Valleys	1000 (500)	28	13	19	4	6	27	1
	Cardiff and South East Wales		34	23	10	6	8	16	11
	North and Mid Wales		21	18	24	8	4	24	Tie
	Male voters		28	20	10	6	7	27	1
	Female voters		27	15	26	6	5	20	1
	Aged 16-34		37	9	21	9	7	17	16
	Aged 34-54		32	15	21	4	8	19	11
	Aged over 55		21	22	15	6	5	29	7
	ABC1		28	23	18	7	6	15	5
	C2DE		26	11	17	5	6	34	8
	Welsh speakers		24	16	31	5	6	17	7
	Non-Welsh speakers		29	18	13	6	6	26	3

Constituency vote

LOESS curve of the polling for the next Senedd Election Constituency Votes.

  Sample size below 1,000. ^[a]

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Lab	Con	Plaid Cymru	Lib Dems	Green	Reform	Other	Lead
8 May 2024	The Senedd Reform Act is approved, abolishing the additional member system by 2026.
22–23 Apr 2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	840	37%	21%	22%	4%	3%	10%	3% AWA on 3% Other on 0%	15
23–24 Mar 2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	878	36%	21%	21%	3%	3%	11%	4% AWA on 3% Other on 1%	15
20 Mar 2024	Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales [5]
18 Feb 2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	874	34%	21%	19%	4%	3%	13%	6% AWA on 7% Other on 1%	13
24–26 Jan 2024	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,100	39%	25%	18%	3%	4%	9%	4% AWA on 3% Other on 1%	14
10–11 Dec 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,086	41%	22%	17%	7%	3%	7%	3% AWA on 3% Other on 0%	19
12–13 Nov 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,100	40%	23%	18%	3%	4%	7%	4% AWA on 3% Other on 1%	17
14–15 Oct 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	959	37%	27%	18%	4%	3%	6%	5% AWA on 5% Other on 0%	10
16–17 Sep 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,172	39%	27%	18%	5%	6%	3%	2% AWA on 1% Other on 1%	12
1–6 Sep 2023	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,051	41%	18%	19%	6%	4%	8%	7%	22
13–14 Aug 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,068	37%	21%	20%	6%	3%	9%	4%	16
14–16 Jul 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,050	42%	22%	16%	6%	3%	7%	3%	20
17–18 Jun 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,000	36%	22%	19%	7%	3%	10%	3%	14
12–17 May 2023	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,064	40%	18%	17%	7%	5%	8%	4%	22
14–15 May 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,058	38%	23%	20%	7%	3%	7%	2%	15
15–17 Apr 2023	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,251	41%	21%	20%	5%	4%	8%	2%	20
3–7 Feb 2023	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,081	43%	18%	20%	4%	4%	9%	1%	23
25 Nov – 1 Dec 2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,042	44%	17%	20%	6%	3%	7%	4%	24
20–22 Sep 2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,014	40%	20%	22%	6%	3%	5%	4%	18
12–16 Jun 2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,020	37%	24%	21%	6%	5%	5%	3%	13
25 Feb – 1 Mar 2022	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,086	38%	24%	21%	6%	3%	5%	4%	14
13–16 Dec 2021	YouGov	ITV Wales	1,009	40%	23%	17%	4%	5%	7%	4%	17
13–16 Sep 2021	YouGov	ITV Wales	1,057	37%	27%	19%	5%	4%	5%	5%	10
6 May 2021	2021 Senedd election [4]		–	39.9%	26.1%	20.3%	4.9%	1.6%	1.6%	5.6%	13.8

See also

• List of political parties in Wales
• Opinion polling on Welsh independence
• Polling in Wales for 2024 United Kingdom general election
• Polling in Wales for the next United Kingdom general election

Notes

1. The British Polling Council states that a sample size of at least 1,000 is the "established norm" for any poll in Great Britain. However, there is no "minimum" acceptable sample size. ^[1]

1. Survation asked voters to give their preferences under the current Additional Member System. The figure shown in this table is the proportional (regional) vote, as that is the closest equivalent to the new party list system.

References

1. "FAQs About Polling". British Polling Council.
2. "Plaid Cymru leads new Senedd poll with Conservatives in 4th place". Nation.Cymru. 1 December 2024. Retrieved 2 December 2024.
3. Allen, Briony (6 August 2024). "Welsh Labour leadership: How Eluned Morgan was selected as first minister of Wales". Institute for Government. Retrieved 3 March 2025.
4. Davies, Owain; Holzinger, Owen; McCarthy, Joanne; Jones, Helen (2021). Senedd Election 2021: Research Briefing (PDF). Senedd Research. p. 16.
5. Browne, Adrian; Deans, David (19 March 2024). "Vaughan Gething confirmed as Wales' new first minister". BBC News. Retrieved 30 March 2024.
6. Mansfield, Mark (18 December 2024). "New Senedd election poll puts Labour in the lead - with Reform snapping at their heels". Nation.Cymru. Retrieved 10 March 2025.