2024 United Kingdom general election in Wales

Last updated

2024 United Kingdom general election in Wales
Flag of Wales (1959-present).svg
  2019 4 July 2024 Next  

All 32 Welsh seats to the House of Commons
Turnout56.0% Decrease2.svg10.6%
 First partySecond party
 
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer Official Portrait (cropped).jpg
Rhun ap Iorwerth official portrait (cropped).jpg
Leader Keir Starmer Rhun ap Iorwerth
Party Labour Plaid Cymru
Leader since 4 April 2020 16 June 2023
Last election22 seats, 40.9%4 seats, 9.9%
Seats before213
Seats won274
Seat changeIncrease2.svg9Increase2.svg2
Popular vote487,636194,812
Percentage37.0%14.8%
SwingDecrease2.svg3.9%Increase2.svg4.9%

 Third partyFourth party
 
Official portrait of Ed Davey MP crop 3, 2024.jpg
Portrait of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak (cropped).jpg
Leader Ed Davey Rishi Sunak
Party Liberal Democrats Conservative
Leader since 27 August 2020 24 October 2022
Last election0 seats, 6.0%14 seats, 36.1%
Seats before013
Seats won10
Seat changeIncrease2.svg1Decrease2.svg12
Popular vote85,911240,003
Percentage6.5%18.2%
SwingIncrease2.svg0.5%Decrease2.svg17.9%

2024 United Kingdom general election in Wales.svg
Results by constituency
  • owing to electoral boundaries changing, this figure is notional

The 2024 general election was held on Thursday, 4 July 2024. Thirty-two seats were up for election in Wales as the general election occurred after the recently completed boundary review took effect. The Labour Party remained the largest party in Wales, gaining six seats for a total of 27. Both Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats made gains, taking them to four seats and one seat respectively. The Conservatives lost all thirteen seats they had held previously, leaving the party without Westminster representation from Wales for the first time since 2005.

Contents

Election

Date of the election

On 22 May 2024, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced 4 July 2024 as the election date. [1]

Number of Welsh MPs

Welsh constituencies used in the election, labelled. Wales2023Constituencies labelled map.svg
Welsh constituencies used in the election, labelled.

The Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act 2011, as amended by the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020, mandated the number of seats in Wales be reduced from 40 to 32 to more accurately reflect its share of registered voters, including one coterminous with the Isle of Anglesey. The Boundary Commission for Wales was responsible for drawing up proposals for the new constituency boundaries, but it was required to abide by this total.

The 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies began in 2020 and concluded in 2023. Initial proposals were published in September 2021. [2] The revised proposals were published on 19 October 2022 followed by a four-week consultation period. [3] On 28 June 2023, the Boundary Commission for Wales published its final recommendations for the new Welsh constituencies. [4] These changes were approved at a meeting of the Privy Council on 15 November. [5] and came into force on 29 November. [6]

Constituencies

Members not standing for re-election

MPConsti­tuencyFirst electedPartyDate announced
Wayne David Caerphilly 2001 Labour 11 February 2022 [7]
Hywel Williams Arfon 2001 Plaid Cymru 11 November 2022 [8]
Beth Winter Cynon Valley [a] 2019 Labour 7 June 2023 [9]
David Jones Clwyd West 2005 Conservative 20 September 2023 [10]
Jamie Wallis Bridgend 2019 Conservative 22 October 2023 [11]
Christina Rees Neath 2015 Labour 1 February 2024 [12]
Kevin Brennan Cardiff West 2001 Labour 27 May 2024 [13]
Geraint Davies Swansea West 1997 [b] Labour [c] 28 May 2024 [14]
Jonathan Edwards Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 2010 Plaid Cymru [d] 28 May 2024 [15]

Candidates

AffiliationCandidates [16]
Conservative Party 32
Green Party of England and Wales 32
Labour Party 32
Liberal Democrats 32
Plaid Cymru 32
Reform UK 31
Independents 17 (15 constituencies)
Heritage Party 6
Workers Party of Britain 4
Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party 3
Co-operative Party 3 [17]
Official Monster Raving Loony Party 2
Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition 2
Women's Equality Party 2
Climate Party 1
Communist Party of Britain 1
Libertarian Party (UK) 1
Propel 1
Socialist Labour Party (UK) 1
True and Fair Party 1
UK Independence Party 1
Total235

Results

By affiliation

Affiliation [18] CandidatesSeatsAggregate votes
TotalGainsLossesNetOf all (%)TotalOf all (%)Differ­ence
Labour 3227+80Increase2.svg984.4487,63637.0Decrease2.svg3.9
Conservative 3200−12Decrease2.svg 120.0240,00318.2Decrease2.svg 17.9
Reform UK 31000Steady2.svg0.0223,01816.9Increase2.svg 11.5
Plaid Cymru 324+20Increase2.svg212.5194,81114.8Increase2.svg4.9
Liberal Democrats 321+10Increase2.svg13.185,9116.5Increase2.svg0.5
Green 32000Steady2.svg0.061,6624.7Increase2.svg3.7
Independent 17000Steady2.svg0.017,5931.3Increase2.svg0.9
Workers Party 40Did not stand in 20190.01,5450.1
Abolish 30Did not stand in 20190.01,5210.1
Propel 10Did not stand in 20190.01,0410.1
Heritage 60Did not stand in 20190.09260.1
UKIP 10Did not stand in 20190.06000.0
Women's Equality 20Did not stand in 20190.05360.0
TUSC 20Did not stand in 20190.05320.0
Communist 10Did not stand in 20190.05210.0
Libertarian 10Did not stand in 20190.04390.0
Socialist Labour 10Did not stand in 20190.04240.0
Monster Raving Loony 2000Steady2.svg0.03930.0Steady2.svg
True & Fair 10Did not stand in 20190.02550.0
Climate 10Did not stand in 20190.01040.0
Total23532Steady2.svg1,319,47156.0

By constituency

Constituency2019
seat
2024 seatVotesTurnout
AffiliateCandidateVotesShareMargin Lab. Con. Ref. PC Lib. Dems Green OtherTotal

Aberafan Maesteg Lab Lab Stephen Kinnock 17,83849.9%10,35417,8382,9037,4844,7199161,09480135,75549.3%
Alyn and Deeside Lab Lab Mark Tami 18,39542.4%8,79418,3957,8929,6011,9382,0651,9261,57543,39257.3%
Bangor Aberconwy Con Lab Claire Hughes 14,00833.6%4,89614,0089,0366,0919,1121,5241,36152841,66060.0%
Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney Lab Lab Nick Smith 16,02753.6%12,18316,0273,7763,8441,2681,7193,28829,92243.0%
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe Con LD David Chadwick 13,73629.5%1,4729,90412,2646,5672,28013,7361,18860946,54864.0%
Bridgend Con Lab Chris Elmore 16,51639.9%8,59516,5166,7647,9213,6291,4461,7603,33841,48256.7%
Caerfyrddin Con PC Ann Davies 15,52034.0%4,50510,9858,8256,94415,5201,4611,37149845,60462.0%
Caerphilly Lab Lab Chris Evans 14,53838.0%6,41914,5384,3857,7548,1191,7881,65038,23452.6%
Cardiff East Lab Lab Jo Stevens 15,83340.5%9,09715,8333,9134,9803,5506,7363,91619539,12353.7%
Cardiff North Lab Lab Anna McMorrin 20,84943.9%11,20720,8499,6425,9854,6693,1683,16047,47366.5%
Cardiff South and Penarth Lab Lab Stephen Doughty 17,42844.5%11,76717,4285,4594,4933,2272,9085,66139,17654.0%
Cardiff West Lab Lab Alex Barros-Curtis 16,44236.7%7,01916,4426,8355,6269,4231,9213,1571,35344,75759.3%
Ceredigion Preseli PC PC Ben Lake 21,73846.9%14,7895,3864,7635,37421,7386,9491,86422846,30261.2%
Clwyd East Con Lab Becky Gittins 18,48438.7%4,62218,48413,8627,6263,7331,8591,65959947,82262.4%
Clwyd North Con Lab Gill German 14,79435.5%1,19614,79413,5987,0003,1591,6851,39141,62755.5%
Dwyfor Meirionnydd PC PC Liz Saville Roberts 21,78853.9%15,8765,9124,7124,85721,7881,3811,44829740,39555.3%
Gower Lab Lab Tonia Antoniazzi 20,48043.4%11,56720,4808,9138,5303,9422,5932,48828347,22962.0%
Llanelli Lab Lab Nia Griffith 12,75131.3%1,50412,7514,27511,2479,5111,2541,10660040,74457.0%
Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare Lab Lab Gerald Jones 15,79144.8%7,44715,7912,6878,3444,7681,2761,2311,11835,21547.3%
Mid and South Pembrokeshire Con Lab Henry Tufnell 16,50535.4%1,87816,50514,6277,8282,9622,3721,65468146,62959.2%
Monmouthshire Con Lab Catherine Fookes 21,01041.3%3,33821,01017,6725,4381,2732,2792,35781550,84468.0%
Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr Con Lab Steve Witherden 12,70929.4%3,81512,7097,7758,8945,6676,4701,74443,25958.4%
Neath and Swansea East Lab Lab Carolyn Harris 16,79741.8%6,62716,7973,76510,1705,3502,3441,71140,13752.5%
Newport East Lab Lab Jessica Morden 16,37042.5%9,00916,3706,4877,3612,2392,0452,0921,93738,53150.0%
Newport West and Islwyn Lab Lab Ruth Jones 17,40941.5%8,86817,4096,7108,5413,5292,0872,0781,59741,95155.4%
Pontypridd Lab Lab Alex Davies-Jones 16,22541.2%8,40216,2253,7757,8235,2751,6061,8652,80939,37852.5%
Rhondda and Ogmore Lab Lab Chris Bryant 17,11847.8%7,79017,1182,0509,3285,1989351,17735,80648.1%
Swansea West Lab Lab Torsten Bell 14,76141.4%8,51514,7613,5366,2464,1054,3672,30533735,65748.0%
Torfaen Lab Lab Nick Thomas-Symonds 15,17642.5%7,32215,1765,7377,8542,5711,6441,7051,01835,70549.9%
Vale of Glamorgan Con Lab Kanishka Narayan 17,74038.7%4,21617,74013,5246,9733,2451,6121,88185145,82661.6%
Wrexham Con Lab Andrew Ranger 15,83639.2%5,94815,8369,8886,9154,1381,7771,33948040,37357.5%
Ynys Môn Con PC Llinos Medi 10,59032.5%6377,6199,9533,22310,59043960420032,62861.4%
All constituencies487,636240,003223,018194,81185,91161,66235,9191,319,07656.0%
37.0%18.2%16.9%14.8%6.5%4.7%2.7%100.0%
Seats
2700410032
84%0%0%13%3.2%0%0%100.0%

By affiliate share

Aggregate votes
Labour
37%
Conservative
18.2%
Reform UK
16.9%
Plaid Cymru
14.8%
Liberal Democrats
6.5%
Greens
4.7%
Seats
Labour
84.375%
Plaid Cymru
12.5%
Liberal Democrats
3.125%

Candidates by constituency

Candidates in bold won their respective constituency election.

Opinion polling

The dates for these opinion polls range from the 2019 general election on 12 December to the present day.

Poll results

Graph of opinion polls conducted in Wales Wales-only UK general election opinion polling 2019-2024 (LOESS).svg
Graph of opinion polls conducted in Wales
Dates
conducted
PollsterClientSample
size
Lab. Con. Plaid Cymru Lib. Dems Ref. Green OthersLead
4 Jul2024 2024 general election [19] 37.0%18.2%14.8%6.5%16.9%4.7%1.9%18.8
27 Jun1 Jul2024 YouGov Barn Cymru1,07240%16%14%7%16%5%2%24
24–28 Jun2024 More in Common N/A84842%22%9%4%14%5%4%20
19–20 Jun2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A93046%15%10%7%17%4%1%29
14–18 Jun2024 Savanta N/A1,02649%19%12%5%12%3%-30
5–7 Jun2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A96045%18%11%5%18%4%0%27
30 May3 Jun2024 YouGov Barn Cymru1,06645%18%12%5%13%4%1%27
22–27 May2024 More in Common N/A80545%21%13%4%12%3%1%24
22 May2024 Rishi Sunak announces that a general election will be held on 4 July 2024
18–19 May2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A90043%19%14%3%15%6%1%24
22–23 Apr2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A84040%18%14%6%18%4%0%22
23–24 Mar2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A87849%16%10%5%15%5%1%33
20 Mar2024 Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales [20]
18 Feb2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A87445%22%10%5%13%5%1%23
24–26 Jan2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,10048%20%10%4%12%4%1%28
10–11 Dec2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,08647%22%11%6%10%2%0%25
4–7 Dec2023 YouGov Barn Cymru1,00442%20%15%7%12%3%1%22
12–13 Nov2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,10044%24%13%4%9%5%1%20
14–15 Oct2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A95946%26%10%3%10%4%0%20
16–17 Sep2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,17244%22%10%9%7%6%1%22
1–6 Sep2023 YouGov Barn Cymru1,05150%19%12%5%8%5%2%31
13–14 Aug2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,06841%24%13%7%11%4%0%17
14–16 Jul2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,05046%24%10%7%10%3%1%22
17–18 Jun2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,00043%22%10%7%12%4%1%21
16 Jun2023 Rhun ap Iorwerth becomes leader of Plaid Cymru [21]
12–17 May2023 YouGov Barn Cymru1,06449%19%10%8%9%4%1%30
14–15 May2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,05843%23%11%8%9%4%1%20
15–17 Apr2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A1,25144%24%12%7%9%4%0%20
17–23 Feb2023 YouGov WalesOnline1,08353%19%12%4%8%3%1%34
3–7 Feb2023 YouGov Barn Cymru1,08149%20%14%5%9%3%1%29
25 Nov1 Dec2022 YouGov Barn Cymru1,04251%18%13%4%8%4%2%33
30 Sep4 Oct2022 Survation 38 Degrees6,01251%24%13%6%6%27
20–22 Sep2022 YouGov Barn Cymru1,01446%23%15%5%5%3%3%23
12–16 Jun2022 YouGov Barn Cymru1,02041%26%16%7%4%4%2%15
5 May 2022 Local elections held in Wales [22]
25 Feb1 Mar2022 YouGov Barn Cymru1,08641%26%13%7%6%4%3%15
13–16 Dec2021 YouGov Barn Cymru1,00941%26%13%3%7%6%3%15
27 Sep1 Oct2021 YouGov  ? ?39%29%17%3%5%7%10
13–16 Sep2021 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University1,07137%31%15%4%6%5%2%6
6 May2021Election to the Senedd [23]
2–4 May2021 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University1,07137%36%14%3%4%3%3%1
18–21 Apr2021 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University1,14237%33%18%2%3%4%3%4
9–19 Apr2021 Opinium Sky News2,00542%33%14%3%3%
5%
UKIP on 3%
Other on 2%
9
16–19 Mar2021 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University1,17435%35%17%4%2%3%3%Tie
24 Jan2021 Andrew RT Davies becomes leader of the Welsh Conservatives [24]
11–14 Jan2021 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University1,01836%33%17%3%5%4%2%3
26–30 Oct2020 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University1,01343%32%13%3%5%3%2%11
28 Aug4 Sep2020 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University1,11041%33%15%2%4%3%2%8
29 May1 Jun2020 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University1,02139%35%15%5%2%3%1%4
3–7 Apr2020 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University1,00834%46%11%4%3%2%0%12
20–26 Jan2020 YouGov ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University1,03736%41%13%5%3%2%1%5
12 Dec2019 2019 general election 40.9%36.1%9.9%6.0%5.4%1.0%0.7%4.8

Seat projections

Dates
conducted
PollsterSample
size
Lab. Con. PC LD Notes
20 Oct 2022 People Polling 1,23735041Based on 40 seats. Seats were reduced to 32.
12 Dec 2019 2019 general election 221440

Analysis

The Labour Party remained the largest party in Wales, winning 27 of the 32 seats. In addition to defending all of their seats in the south including around Cardiff and Swansea, Labour reversed many of the Conservative gains in 2019, gaining seats such as Bangor Aberconwy, Clwyd East, Clwyd North, Monmouthshire and Wrexham. Labour also won in Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr, which covers Montgomeryshire, the only area in Wales which had, until 2024, never elected a Labour MP. [25] Of the Labour MPs elected, 2 of them are also members of the Co-operative Party. They are designated as Labour-Co-op, but generally just counted in Labour's total.

Plaid Cymru won four seats, the same as in 2019, however given boundary changes and the reduction in seats this should be counted as two gains. Plaid Cymru defended Dwyfor Meirionnydd and Ceredigion Preseli with significant majorities, gaining the new seat of Caerfyrddin which had been nominally Conservative in 2019, and gained Ynys Môn from the Conservatives. This was the first time Plaid Cymru had won in Ynys Môn since 2001; it was the most marginal seat in Wales with a majority of 637 votes between Plaid and Conservatives, with Labour in close third place. By the share of the vote (14.8 per cent), Plaid Cymru achieved their best ever result in UK general election. [26]

The Liberal Democrats gained one seat in Wales, Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe. Outside of briefly holding the predecessor seat following the 2019 Brecon and Radnorshire by-election, the Liberal Democrats have not had a seat in Wales since losing Ceredigion in 2017. [27]

The Conservative Party lost every seat in Wales, having won fourteen seats in 2019, the first time since 2001 that Wales had no Conservative MPs. This was despite the Conservatives taking 18.2% of the overall vote and outpolling both Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats in terms of votes. [28]

Reform UK was the third largest party in terms of votes with 16.9%, nearly as many votes as the Conservatives and more than both Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats; it was also a higher vote share than in England. [29] Reform was the runner-up in thirteen constituencies, coming closest to winning in Llanelli. [30] The Green Party was runner-up in one constituency, Cardiff South and Penarth. [31]

See also

Notes

  1. Constituency was abolished and Winter lost the contest to be selected for another seat
  2. Originally elected as the MP for Croydon Central in the 1997 general election, but lost his seat in 2005; elected for Swansea West in 2010.
  3. Sat as an independent from June 2023.
  4. Sat as an independent from July 2020.
  5. Incumbent MP for Islwyn
  6. Was member of the Welsh Assembly for South Wales East from 2011 to 2016
  7. An MEP for Wales (2019–2020)
  8. Was MP for Ceredigion (2005–2017)
  9. Was not reselected as a candidate
  10. Baynes was the incumbent MP for Clwyd South in Wales, and stood in North Shropshire in England.
  11. Incumbent MP for Swansea East

References

  1. "Rishi Sunak announces 4 July general election". BBC News . 22 May 2024. Retrieved 25 May 2024.
  2. Hayward, Will (19 October 2022). "New plans to cut the number of Welsh MPs and create new constituencies". WalesOnline. Retrieved 20 October 2022.
  3. Masters, Adrian (19 October 2022). "Number of Welsh MPs to be cut from 40 to 32 under new proposals". ITV News. Retrieved 20 October 2022.
  4. "Wales' new parliamentary constituencies published". Boundary Commission for Wales. 28 June 2023. Retrieved 30 June 2023.
  5. "List of Business – 15th November 2023" (PDF). Privy Council Office. 23 November 2023.
  6. "The Parliamentary Constituencies Order 2023", legislation.gov.uk , The National Archives, 15 November 2023, SI 2023/1230
  7. "Caerphilly Labour MP Wayne David to retire at next election". BBC News. 11 February 2022.
  8. "Hywel Williams: Plaid Cymru Arfon MP to stand down at next election". BBC News. 11 November 2022. Retrieved 11 November 2022.
  9. "Welsh Labour: Frontbench MP beats left-winger in seat battle". BBC News. 7 June 2023. Retrieved 13 July 2024.
  10. "David Jones: Former Welsh secretary to retire at next election". BBC News . 20 September 2023.
  11. "Conservative MP seeking new seat for next election". BBC News. 22 October 2023. Retrieved 13 July 2024.
  12. Stacey, Kiran (1 February 2024). "Christina Rees readmitted to Labour after apology over bullying claims". The Guardian. Rees... announced she would not stand again at the next election...
  13. Brennan, Kevin [@KevinBrennanMP] (27 May 2024). "I'm announcing my decision to stand down as Cardiff West MP after 23 years – thank you to local Labour members and constituents for your friendship and support" (Tweet). Retrieved 28 May 2024 via Twitter.
  14. "Geraint Davies says he is 'unable' to stand for Labour because of suspension". Express & Star. 28 May 2024. Retrieved 28 May 2024.
  15. "MP cautioned for assaulting his wife confirms he won't be standing for re-election/". Nation.Cymru. 28 May 2024. Retrieved 28 May 2024.
  16. "Democracy Club Candidates". Democracy Club Candidates. Democracy Club.
  17. In electoral pact with the Labour Party, all candidates are also standing for the Labour Party
  18. "Results of the 2024 General Election in Wales". BBC News.
  19. "Wales election results 2024 | Constituency map". BBC News. Archived from the original on 5 July 2024. Retrieved 5 July 2024.
  20. "Vaughan Gething confirmed as Wales' new first minister". BBC News. 19 March 2024. Archived from the original on 20 March 2024. Retrieved 20 March 2024.
  21. "Plaid Cymru: What we know about new leader Rhun ap Iorwerth". 16 June 2023. Archived from the original on 20 November 2023. Retrieved 20 November 2023 via www.bbc.co.uk.
  22. "Wales Local Elections 2022". BBC News. 6 May 2022. Archived from the original on 8 May 2022. Retrieved 22 February 2023.
  23. "Welsh Parliament election 2021". BBC News. Archived from the original on 9 October 2021. Retrieved 15 May 2021.
  24. "Andrew RT Davies returns as Welsh Conservatives leader". BBC News. 24 January 2021. Archived from the original on 22 May 2021. Retrieved 15 May 2021.
  25. Jones, Matt (5 July 2024). "General Election 2024: Labour win Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr". The Leader . Retrieved 15 August 2024.
  26. Hayward, Will (5 July 2024). "Why this was an incredible election for Plaid Cymru". Wales Online.
  27. Compton, Karen (6 July 2024). "Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe election result: Lib Dems take seat off Conservatives". www.shropshirestar.com.
  28. Morris, Steven (5 July 2024). "Wipeout for Tories in Wales as Labour takes 27 of 32 seats" via The Guardian.
  29. D'Urso, Joey [@josephmdurso] (7 July 2024). "Still looking through election results to see if I've missed anything interesting... here's one – Reform got a higher vote share in Wales (16.9%) than England (15.3%)" (Tweet). Retrieved 15 August 2024 via Twitter.
  30. Masters, Adrian (5 July 2024). "Questions to be asked despite Welsh Labour wins as Reform votes hint at what's to come". ITV Wales . Retrieved 15 August 2024.
  31. Jamshidian, Harry (5 July 2024). "Labour's Stephen Doughty holds Cardiff South and Penarth". Penarth Times. Retrieved 15 August 2024.