Brecon and Radnorshire (UK Parliament constituency)

Last updated

Brecon and Radnorshire
County constituency
for the House of Commons
BreconRadnorshire2007Constituency.svg
Boundary of Brecon and Radnorshire in Wales
Preserved county Powys
Population69,197 (2011 census) [1]
Electorate 53,032 (April 2019) [2]
Major settlements Brecon, Crickhowell, Ystradgynlais, Knighton, Llandrindod Wells
Current constituency
Created 1918
Member of Parliament Fay Jones (Conservative)
SeatsOne
Created from Breconshire
Radnorshire
Overlaps
Senedd Brecon and Radnorshire, Mid and West Wales

Brecon and Radnorshire (Welsh : Brycheiniog a Sir Faesyfed) is a county constituency in Wales of the House of Commons of the Parliament of the United Kingdom. Created in 1918, it elects one Member of Parliament (MP) by the first-past-the-post system of election. The constituency is represented by Fay Jones of the Conservative Party, who defeated incumbent Jane Dodds of the Liberal Democrats at the 2019 general election.

Contents

The constituency is set to be abolished, as part of the 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies and under the June 2023 final recommendations of the Boundary Commission for Wales for the next United Kingdom general election. The entire constituency would be part of Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe. [3]

Boundaries

Brecon and Radnorshire (UK Parliament constituency)
Map of current boundaries

The boundaries of the constituency correspond broadly with the ancient counties of Brecknockshire and Radnorshire. Radnorshire is included in full, and the only significantly populated area from Brecknockshire not in this constituency is Brynmawr, which is in Blaenau Gwent. This is the largest constituency in England and Wales by area. [4] No town in the constituency exceeds a population of 10,000, the largest being Ystradgynlais at roughly 9,000. Other towns in the constituency are Brecon, Knighton, Crickhowell and Llandrindod Wells. The remainder of the constituency is largely made up of small villages and land used for farming sheep: sheep outnumber humans in Powys as a whole by around ten to one. [5]

Under planned constituency changes announced in September 2016 ahead of the next general election, it was proposed to merge this seat with the southern half of Montgomeryshire, including Newtown, to form a new constituency called Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery. [6]

History

The constituency was created in the boundary changes of 1918 by merging Breconshire and Radnorshire, both previously constituencies in their own right. As part of the Third Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies there were changes to the boundaries in 1983, when the constituency lost several small areas in the south. [7] While once a Labour stronghold, the constituency was captured from the Conservative government by the SDP–Liberal Alliance at a dramatic by-election in 1985. It was regained by the Conservatives in 1992, taken back by the Liberal Democrats in 1997, and then returned to the Conservatives in 2015. It was the Conservatives' fifteenth target seat at the 2005 election, but the party's share of the vote fell, leaving it as the Conservatives' 95th target seat in 2010, requiring a swing of 5.09%. In the event, the swing to the Conservatives was 0.3%, and the Liberal Democrats retained the seat, with Roger Williams remaining the MP. In 2015 the seat was reclaimed for the Conservatives by Chris Davies, whose majority of 5,102 was the largest in the constituency since Tom Hooson won the seat, also for the Conservatives, in 1983. Roger Williams stood for the Liberal Democrats in 2015 but shed over 6,500 votes from his 2010 result, a loss of 17.8%.

In 2019, Davies pleaded guilty to filing false expenses claims, triggering a recall petition, the third such petition in the UK. The petition was successful, forcing Davies to vacate the seat. [8] [9] A by-election was held on 1 August, which was won by Liberal Democrat candidate Jane Dodds. [10] Dodds was then defeated by Conservative Fay Jones at the general election in December 2019.

Members of Parliament

YearMember [11] [12] Whip
1918 Sidney Robinson Coalition Liberal
1922 William Jenkins National Liberal
1923 Liberal
1924 Walter Hall Conservative
1929 Peter Freeman Labour
1931 Walter Hall Conservative
1935 Ivor Guest National
1939 by-election William Jackson Labour
1945 Tudor Watkins Labour
1970 Caerwyn Roderick Labour
1979 Tom Hooson Conservative
1985 by-election Richard Livsey Liberal
1988 Liberal Democrats
1992 Jonathan Evans Conservative
1997 Richard Livsey Liberal Democrats
2001 Roger Williams Liberal Democrats
2015 Christopher Davies Conservative
2019 by-election Jane Dodds Liberal Democrats
2019 Fay Jones Conservative

Elections

Brecon & Radnor election results, prior to the 2019 United Kingdom general election Brecon & Radnor election results 2019.png
Brecon & Radnor election results, prior to the 2019 United Kingdom general election

Elections in the 1910s

General election 1918: Brecon and Radnor [13]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
C Liberal Sidney Robinson Unopposed
Registered electors 37,771
Liberal win (new seat)

Elections in the 1920s

General election 1922: Brecon and Radnor [13]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
National Liberal William Jenkins 20,405 67.4 N/A
Labour Edward John 9,85032.6N/A
Majority10,55534.8N/A
Turnout 30,25577.9N/A
Registered electors 38,815
National Liberal hold Swing N/A
W.A. Jenkins William Albert Jenkins.jpg
W.A. Jenkins
General election 1923: Brecon and Radnor [13]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Liberal William Jenkins Unopposed
Registered electors 39,750
Liberal hold
General election 1924: Brecon and Radnor [13]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Conservative Walter Hall 12,834 38.4 N/A
Liberal William Jenkins 10,37431.1N/A
Labour Edward John 10,16730.5N/A
Majority2,4607.3N/A
Turnout 33,37583.6N/A
Registered electors 39,943
Conservative gain from Liberal Swing N/A
General election 1929: Brecon and Radnor [13]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Labour Peter Freeman 14,511 33.7 +3.2
Conservative Walter Hall 14,32433.3―5.1
Liberal Wynne Cemlyn-Jones 14,18233.0+1.9
Majority1870.4N/A
Turnout 43,05787.7+4.1
Registered electors 49,031
Labour gain from Conservative Swing +4.2

Elections in the 1930s

General election 1931: Brecon and Radnor [13]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Conservative Walter Hall 25,620 59.8 +26.5
Labour Peter Freeman 17,22340.2+6.5
Majority8,39719.6N/A
Turnout 42,84387.1―0.6
Registered electors 49,199
Conservative gain from Labour Swing
General election 1935: Brecon and Radnor [13]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
National Ivor Guest 22,079 52.6 N/A
Labour Leslie Haden-Guest 19,91047.4+7.2
Majority2,1695.2N/A
Turnout 41,98984.3―2.8
Registered electors 49,827
National hold Swing
1939 Brecon and Radnorshire by-election [13]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Labour William Jackson 20,679 53.4 +6.0
Conservative Richard Hanning Philipps18,04346.6N/A
Majority2,6366.8N/A
Turnout 38,72279.9―4.4
Registered electors 48,486
Labour gain from National Swing

Elections in the 1940s

General Election 1939–40:

Another general election was required to take place before the end of 1940. The political parties had been making preparations for an election to take place from 1939 and by the end of this year, the following candidates had been selected;

General election 1945: Brecon and Radnor [13]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Labour Tudor Watkins 19,725 46.8 ―0.6
Conservative Oscar Guest 14,08933.4N/A
Liberal David Lewis8,33519.8N/A
Majority5,63613.4N/A
Turnout 42,14980.0―4.3
Registered electors 52,689
Labour hold Swing N/A

Elections in the 1950s

General election 1950: Brecon and Radnor [14]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Labour Tudor Watkins 22,519 48.8 +2.0
Conservative David Gibson-Watt 19,69042.7+10.3
Liberal Rolle Malcolm Ritson Paton3,9038.5―11.3
Majority2,8296.1―7.3
Turnout 46,11288.8+8.8
Registered electors 51,951
Labour hold Swing ―4.2
General election 1951: Brecon and Radnor [14]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Labour Tudor Watkins 24,572 52.2 +3.4
Conservative David Gibson-Watt 22,48947.8+5.1
Majority2,0834.4―1.7
Turnout 47,06189.2+0.4
Registered electors 52,728
Labour hold Swing ―0.9
General election 1955: Brecon and Radnor [14]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Labour Tudor Watkins 23,953 53.1 +0.9
Conservative Henry Graham Partridge16,41236.4―11.4
Liberal Russell Thomas 4,74510.5N/A
Majority7,54116.7+12.3
Turnout 45,11086.8―2.4
Registered electors 51,969
Labour hold Swing +6.2
General election 1959: Brecon and Radnor [14]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Labour Tudor Watkins 25,411 57.3 +4.2
Conservative John H. Davies18,93942.7+6.3
Majority6,47214.6―2.1
Turnout 44,35086.4―0.4
Registered electors 51,357
Labour hold Swing ―1.1

Elections in the 1960s

General election 1964: Brecon and Radnor [14]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Labour Tudor Watkins 23,967 57.7 +0.4
Conservative Frank T. Stevens15,41537.1―5.6
Plaid Cymru Trefor Richard Morgan 2,1655.2N/A
Majority8,55220.6+6.0
Turnout 41,54782.8―3.6
Registered electors 50,159
Labour hold Swing +3.0
General election 1966: Brecon and Radnor [14]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Labour Tudor Watkins 22,902 57.5 ―0.2
Conservative Frank T. Stevens14,52336.5―0.6
Plaid Cymru Trefor Richard Morgan 2,4106.0+0.8
Majority8,37921.0+0.4
Turnout 39,83580.5―2.3
Registered electors 49,464
Labour hold Swing +0.2

Elections in the 1970s

General election 1970: Brecon and Radnor [14]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Labour Caerwyn Roderick 18,736 43.4 ―14.1
Conservative Gareth John Jarvis Neale13,89232.2―4.3
Liberal Geraint Howells 8,16918.9N/A
Plaid Cymru William George Jenkins2,3495.4―0.6
Majority4,84411.2―9.8
Turnout 43,14681.9+1.4
Registered electors 52,694
Labour hold Swing ―4.9
General election February 1974: Brecon and Radnor [15]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Labour Caerwyn Roderick 18,180 40.5 ―2.9
Conservative Lloyd Havard Davies15,90335.4+3.2
Liberal Noel Kennedy Thomas8,74119.5+0.6
Plaid Cymru Dafydd Noel Gittins2,0994.7―0.7
Majority2,2775.1―6.1
Turnout 44,92383.4+1.5
Registered electors 53,857
Labour hold Swing ―3.1
General election October 1974: Brecon and Radnor [16]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Labour Caerwyn Roderick 18,622 42.1 +1.6
Conservative Lloyd Havard Davies15,61035.3―0.1
Liberal Noel Kennedy Thomas7,68217.4―2.1
Plaid Cymru Dafydd Noel Gittins2,3005.2+0.5
Majority3,0126.8+1.7
Turnout 44,21481.4―2.0
Registered electors 54,300
Labour hold Swing +0.9
General election 1979: Brecon and Radnor [17]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Conservative Tom Hooson 22,660 47.2 +11.9
Labour Caerwyn Roderick 19,63340.9―1.2
Liberal Norman Lewis4,6549.7―7.7
Plaid Cymru Janet Power1,0312.1―3.1
Majority3,0276.3N/A
Turnout 47,97884.2+2.8
Registered electors 56,975
Conservative gain from Labour Swing +6.6

Elections in the 1980s

General election 1983: Brecon and Radnor [18]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Conservative Tom Hooson 18,255 48.2 +1.0
Labour David Morris 9,47125.0―15.9
Liberal Richard Livsey 9,22624.4+14.7
Plaid Cymru Sian Meredudd6401.7―0.4
Independent Richard Booth 2780.7N/A
Majority8,78423.2+16.9
Turnout 37,87080.1―4.1
Registered electors 47,277
Conservative hold Swing +8.4
1985 Brecon and Radnor by-election [19]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Liberal Richard Livsey 13,753 35.8 +11.4
Labour Frederick Willey13,19434.4+9.4
Conservative Chris Butler 10,63127.7―20.5
Plaid Cymru Janet Davies 4351.1―0.6
Monster Raving Loony Screaming Lord Sutch 2020.5N/A
One Nation Conservative Roger Everest 1540.4N/A
Independent Andre C. L. Genillard430.1N/A
Majority5591.4N/A
Turnout 38,41279.4−0.7
Registered electors 48,371
Liberal gain from Conservative Swing +16.0
General election 1987: Brecon and Radnor [20]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Liberal Richard Livsey 14,509 34.8 +10.4
Conservative Jonathan Evans 14,45334.7―13.5
Labour Frederick Willey12,18029.2+4.2
Plaid Cymru John Davies5351.3―0.4
Majority560.1N/A
Turnout 41,67784.3+4.2
Registered electors 49,394
Liberal gain from Conservative Swing +12.0

Elections in the 1990s

General election 1992: Brecon and Radnor [21] [22]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Conservative Jonathan Evans 15,977 36.1 +1.4
Liberal Democrats Richard Livsey 15,84735.8+1.0
Labour Christopher Mann11,63426.3―2.9
Plaid Cymru Sian Meredudd4180.9―0.4
Green Hugh Richards3930.9N/A
Majority1300.3N/A
Turnout 44,26985.9+1.6
Registered electors 51,509
Conservative gain from Liberal Democrats Swing +0.2
General election 1997: Brecon and Radnorshire [23] [24]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Liberal Democrats Richard Livsey 17,516 40.8 +5.0
Conservative Jonathan Evans 12,41929.0―7.1
Labour Christopher Mann11,42426.6+0.3
Referendum Elizabeth Phillips9002.1N/A
Plaid Cymru Steven Cornelius6221.5+0.6
Majority5,09711.8N/A
Turnout 42,88182.2―3.7
Registered electors 52,142
Liberal Democrats gain from Conservative Swing +6.1

The Labour candidate, Chris Mann, won the selection over future AMs Carwyn Jones and Jeffrey Cuthbert, and future AM and MP Peter Law. [25]

Elections in the 2000s

General election 2001: Brecon and Radnorshire [26] [27]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Liberal Democrats Roger Williams 13,824 36.8 ―4.0
Conservative Felix Aubel13,07334.8+5.8
Labour Huw Irranca-Davies 8,02421.4―5.2
Plaid Cymru Brynach Parri1,3013.5+2.0
Independent Ian Mitchell7622.0N/A
UKIP Elizabeth Phillips4521.2N/A
Independent Robert Nicholson800.2N/A
Majority7512.0―9.8
Turnout 37,51670.5―11.7
Registered electors 53,247
Liberal Democrats hold Swing ―5.0
General election 2005: Brecon and Radnorshire [28] [29]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Liberal Democrats Roger Williams 17,182 44.8 +8.0
Conservative Andrew RT Davies 13,27734.6―0.2
Labour Leighton Veale5,75515.0―6.4
Plaid Cymru Mabon ap Gwynfor1,4043.7+0.2
UKIP Elizabeth Phillips7231.9+0.7
Majority3,90510.2+8.2
Turnout 38,34169.5―1.0
Registered electors 55,171
Liberal Democrats hold Swing +4.1

Elections in the 2010s

General election 2010: Brecon and Radnorshire [30] [31]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Liberal Democrats Roger Williams 17,929 46.2 +1.4
Conservative Suzy Davies 14,18236.5+1.9
Labour Chris Lloyd4,09610.4―4.5
Plaid Cymru Janet Davies 9892.5―1.1
UKIP Clive Easton8762.3+0.4
Green Dorienne Robinson3410.9N/A
Christian Jeffery Green2220.6N/A
Monster Raving Loony Chris "Lord Offa of the Dyke" Rogers2100.5N/A
Majority3,7479.7―0.5
Turnout 38,84572.5+3.0
Registered electors 53,589
Liberal Democrats hold Swing ―0.3
General election 2015: Brecon and Radnorshire [32] [33] [34]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Conservative Christopher Davies 16,453 41.1 +4.6
Liberal Democrats Roger Williams 11,35128.3―17.9
Labour Matthew Dorrance5,90414.7+4.3
UKIP Darran Thomas [35] 3,3388.3+6.0
Plaid Cymru Freddy Greaves1,7674.4+1.9
Green Chris Carmichael1,2613.1+2.2
Majority5,10212.8N/A
Turnout 40,07473.8+1.3
Registered electors 54,441
Conservative gain from Liberal Democrats Swing +11.1
General election 2017: Brecon and Radnorshire [36] [37]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Conservative Christopher Davies 20,081 48.6 +7.5
Liberal Democrats James Gibson-Watt12,04329.1+0.8
Labour Dan Lodge7,33517.7+3.0
Plaid Cymru Kate Heneghan1,2993.1―1.3
UKIP Peter Gilbert5761.4―6.9
Majority8,03819.5+6.7
Turnout 41,33476.9+3.1
Registered electors 56,010
Conservative hold Swing +3.4

Following the successful recall petition of Christopher Davies, a by-election was held on 1 August 2019.

2019 Brecon and Radnorshire by-election [38] [39] [40]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Liberal Democrats Jane Dodds 13,826 43.5 +14.4
Conservative Christopher Davies 12,40139.0―9.6
Brexit Party Des Parkinson3,33110.5N/A
Labour Tom Davies1,6805.3―12.4
Monster Raving Loony Lady Lily the Pink3341.0N/A
UKIP Liz Phillips2420.7―0.7
Rejected ballots73
Majority1,4254.5N/A
Turnout 31,81459.7―17.2
Registered electors
Liberal Democrats gain from Conservative Swing +12.0

Of the 73 rejected ballots:

Changes in vote share are compared to the 2017 general election, not the 2019 by-election.

General election 2019: Brecon and Radnorshire [41] [42] [43]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Conservative Fay Jones 21,958 53.1 +4.5
Liberal Democrats Jane Dodds 14,82735.9+6.8
Labour Tomos Davies3,9449.5―8.2
Monster Raving Loony Lady Lily the Pink3450.8N/A
Christian Jeff Green2450.6N/A
Rejected ballots110
Majority7,13117.2―2.3
Turnout 41,31974.5―2.4
Registered electors 55,490
Conservative hold Swing ―1.1

Of the 110 rejected ballots:

Elections in the 2020s

Next general election: Brecon and Radnorshire
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Conservative Fay Jones [44]
Liberal Democrats David Chadwick [45]

See also

Notes

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