2015 United Kingdom general election

Last updated

2015 United Kingdom general election
Flag of the United Kingdom.svg
  2010 7 May 2015 2017  

All 650 seats in the House of Commons
326 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered46,354,197
Turnout66.4% [1] (Increase2.svg1.3%)
 First partySecond party
  David Cameron official.jpg Ed Miliband election infobox.jpg
Leader David Cameron Ed Miliband
Party Conservative Labour
Leader since 6 December 2005 25 September 2010
Leader's seat Witney Doncaster North
Last election306 seats, 36.1%258 seats, 29.0%
Seats won330*232
Seat changeIncrease2.svg 24Decrease2.svg 26
Popular vote11,334,2269,347,273
Percentage36.9%30.4%
SwingIncrease2.svg 0.8 pp Increase2.svg 1.4 pp

 Third partyFourth party
  Nicola Sturgeon election infobox 2.jpg Nick Clegg by the 2009 budget cropped.jpg
Leader Nicola Sturgeon Nick Clegg
Party SNP Liberal Democrats
Leader since 14 November 2014 18 December 2007
Leader's seatDid not stand [n 1] Sheffield Hallam
Last election6 seats, 1.7%57 seats, 23.0%
Seats won568
Seat changeIncrease2.svg 50Decrease2.svg 49
Popular vote1,454,4362,415,916
Percentage4.7%7.9%
SwingIncrease2.svg 3.1 pp Decrease2.svg 15.1 pp

2015UKElectionMap.svg
Colours denote the winning party, as shown in the main table of results.
* Figure does not include the Speaker of the House of Commons John Bercow, who was included in the Conservative seat total by some media outlets.

House of Commons 2015 elections.svg
Composition of the House of Commons after the election

Prime Minister before election

David Cameron
Conservative

Prime Minister after election

David Cameron
Conservative

The 2015 United Kingdom general election was held on Thursday, 7 May 2015 to elect 650 members to the House of Commons. It was the first and, as of 2021, the only general election at the end of a fixed-term Parliament. Local elections took place in most areas on the same day.

Contents

Polls and commentators had predicted the outcome would be too close to call and would result in a second consecutive hung parliament that would be either similar or more complicated than the 2010 election. Opinion polls were eventually proven to have underestimated the Conservative vote as the party, having governed in coalition with the Liberal Democrats since 2010, won 330 seats and 36.9% of the vote share, giving them a small overall majority of 12 seats and their first outright win for 23 years.

The Labour Party, led by Ed Miliband who had succeeded Gordon Brown following his resignation after the 2010 general election, saw a small increase in its share of the vote to 30.4%, but incurred a net loss of seats to return 232 MPs. This was its lowest seat tally since the 1987 general election. Senior Labour Shadow Cabinet members, notably Ed Balls, Douglas Alexander, and Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy, were defeated.

The Scottish National Party, enjoying a surge in support after the 2014 Scottish independence referendum (which saw the majority of voters back Scotland to remain part of the United Kingdom), recorded a number of swings of over 30% from Labour, as it won all but three of the 59 Scottish seats to become the third-largest party in the Commons.

The Liberal Democrats, led by outgoing Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg, had their worst result since their formation in 1988, losing all but eight of their 57 seats, with Cabinet ministers Vince Cable, Ed Davey and Danny Alexander losing their seats, although Clegg managed to retain his seat. UKIP came third in terms of votes with 12.6%, but won only one seat, with party leader Nigel Farage failing to win the seat of South Thanet. The Green Party won its highest-ever share of the vote with 3.8%, and retained its only seat. [2] Labour's Miliband (as national leader) and Murphy (as Scottish leader) both resigned, as did Clegg. In Northern Ireland, the Ulster Unionist Party returned to the Commons with two MPs after a five-year absence, while the Alliance Party lost its only seat despite an increase in total vote share.

The election is in retrospect considered to have begun a political realignment in the UK's electoral politics, marking the end of the traditional three-party domination seen for most of the previous century, the beginning of the Conservative Party broadening its electoral base to include white working-class voters (a segment they had last led in during Margaret Thatcher's tenure as PM, when the opposition vote was split between Labour and the SDP–Liberal Alliance), and the Scottish National Party beginning its domination of Scotland's representation in Westminster (having already begun dominating Holyrood elections in the previous decade) and also saw one of the last public appearances of former Liberal Democrat leader Charles Kennedy who lost his seat in Ross, Skye and Lochaber to the Scottish Nationalist Ian Blackford before his death on 1 June.

Election process

The Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 (as amended by the Electoral Registration and Administration Act 2013) led to the dissolution of the 55th Parliament on 30 March 2015 and the scheduling of the election on 7 May, the House of Commons not having voted for an earlier date. [3] There were local elections on the same day in most of England, with the exception of Greater London. No other elections were scheduled to take place in Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland, apart from any local by-elections.

All British, Irish and Commonwealth citizens over the age of 18 on the date of the election were permitted to vote. In general elections, voting takes place in all parliamentary constituencies of the United Kingdom to elect members of parliament (MPs) to seats in the House of Commons, the dominant (historically termed the lower) house of Parliament. Each parliamentary constituency of the United Kingdom elects one MP to the House of Commons using the "first-past-the-post" system. If one party obtains a majority of seats, then that party is entitled to form the Government. If the election results in no single party having a majority, then there is a hung parliament. In this case, the options for forming the Government are either a minority government or a coalition government. [4]

Although the Conservative Party planned the number of parliamentary seats to be reduced from 650 to 600, through the Sixth Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies under the Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act 2011, the review of constituencies and reduction in seats was delayed by the Electoral Registration and Administration Act 2013 amending the 2011 Act. [5] [6] [7] [8] The next boundary review was set to take place in 2018; thus, the 2015 general election was contested using the same constituencies and boundaries as in 2010. Of the 650 constituencies, 533 were in England, 59 in Scotland, 40 in Wales and 18 in Northern Ireland.

In addition, the 2011 Act mandated a referendum in 2011 on changing from the current "first-past-the-post" system to an alternative vote (instant-runoff) system for elections to the Commons. The Conservative–Liberal Democrat coalition agreement committed the coalition government to such a referendum. [9] The referendum was held in May 2011 and resulted in the retention of the existing voting system. Before the previous general election the Liberal Democrats had pledged to change the voting system, and the Labour Party pledged to have a referendum about any such change. [10] The Conservatives, however, promised to keep the first-past-the-post system, but to reduce the number of constituencies by 10%. Liberal Democrat plans were to reduce the number of MPs to 500, and for them to be elected using a proportional system. [11] [12]

Ministers increased the amount of money that parties and candidates were allowed to spend on the election by 23%, a move decided against Electoral Commission advice. [13] The election saw the first cap on spending by parties in individual constituencies during the 100 days before Parliament's dissolution on 30 March: £30,700, plus a per-voter allowance of 9p in county constituencies and 6p in borough seats. An additional voter allowance of more than £8,700 is available after the dissolution of Parliament. UK political parties spent £31.1m in the 2010 general election, of which the Conservative Party spent 53%, the Labour Party spent 25% and the Liberal Democrats 15%. [14]

This was the first UK general election to use individual rather than household voter registration.

Date of the election

A church used as a polling station in Bath on 7 May 2015 Lower Weston, Bath, church as polling station, 2015.JPG
A church used as a polling station in Bath on 7 May 2015

An election is called following the dissolution of the Parliament of the United Kingdom. The 2015 general election was the first to be held under the provisions of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011. Prior to this, the power to dissolve Parliament was a royal prerogative, exercised by the sovereign on the advice of the prime minister. Under the provisions of the Septennial Act 1716, as amended by the Parliament Act 1911, an election had to be announced on or before the fifth anniversary of the beginning of the previous parliament, barring exceptional circumstances. No sovereign had refused a request for dissolution since the beginning of the 20th century, and the practice had evolved that a prime minister would typically call a general election to be held at a tactically convenient time within the final two years of a Parliament's lifespan, to maximise the chance of an electoral victory for his or her party. [15]

Prior to the 2010 general election, the Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats pledged to introduce fixed-term elections. [10] As part of the Conservative–Liberal Democrat coalition agreement, the Cameron ministry agreed to support legislation for fixed-term Parliaments, with the date of the next general election being 7 May 2015. [16] This resulted in the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011, which removed the prime minister's power to advise the monarch to call an early election. The Act only permits an early dissolution if Parliament votes for one by a two-thirds supermajority, or if a vote of no confidence is passed by a majority and no new government is subsequently formed within 14 days. [17] However, the prime minister had the power, by order made by Statutory Instrument under section 1(5) of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011, to fix the polling day to be up to two months later than 7 May 2015. Such a Statutory Instrument must be approved by each House of Parliament. Under section 14 of the Electoral Registration and Administration Act 2013, the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 was amended to extend the period between the dissolution of Parliament and the following general election polling day from 17 to 25 working days. This had the effect of moving forward the date of the dissolution of the Parliament to 30 March 2015. [3]

Timetable

The key dates were:

Monday 30 MarchDissolution of Parliament (the 55th) and campaigning officially began
Saturday 2 MayLast day to file nomination papers, to register to vote, and to request a postal vote [18]
Thursday 7 MayPolling day
Monday 18 May New Parliament (the 56th) assembled
Wednesday 27 May State Opening of Parliament

MPs not standing for re-election

While at the previous election there had been a record 148 MPs not standing for re-election, [19] the 2015 election saw 90 MPs standing down. [20] These comprised 38 Conservative, 37 Labour, 10 Liberal Democrat, 3 Independent, 1 Sinn Féin and 1 Plaid Cymru MP. The highest-profile members of parliament leaving were: Gordon Brown, a former Prime Minister, Leader of the Labour Party (both 2007–2010) and Chancellor of the Exchequer (1997–2007); and William Hague, the outgoing First Secretary of State and Leader of the House of Commons and former Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs (2010–2014), Leader of the Conservative Party and Leader of the Opposition (both 1997–2001). [21] Alongside Brown and Hague, 17 former cabinet ministers stood down at the election, including Stephen Dorrell, Jack Straw, Alistair Darling, David Blunkett, Sir Malcolm Rifkind and Dame Tessa Jowell. [21] The highest profile Liberal Democrat to stand down was former leader Sir Menzies Campbell, while the longest-serving MP (the "Father of the House") Sir Peter Tapsell also retired, having served from 1959 to 1964 and then continuously since the 1966 general election. [21]

Contesting political parties and candidates

A sign in Woking showing opening hours of polling stations, including the advice that people queuing outside polling stations at 10.00 pm "will be entitled to apply for a ballot paper" Polling station hours, Woking 2015.jpg
A sign in Woking showing opening hours of polling stations, including the advice that people queuing outside polling stations at 10.00 pm "will be entitled to apply for a ballot paper"

Overview

As of 9 April 2015, the deadline for standing for the general election, the Electoral Commission's Register of Political Parties included 428 political parties registered in Great Britain, [22] and 36 in Northern Ireland. [23] Candidates who did not belong to a registered party could use an "independent" label, or no label at all.

The Conservative Party and the Labour Party had been the two biggest parties since 1922, and had supplied all UK prime ministers since 1935. Polls predicted that these parties would together receive between 65% and 75% of votes, and would together win between 80% and 85% of seats; [24] [25] and that, as such, the leader of one of those parties would be the prime minister after the election. The Liberal Democrats had been the third party in the UK for many years; but as described by various commentators, other parties had risen relative to the Liberal Democrats since the 2010 election. [26] [27] The Economist described a "familiar two-and-a-half-party system" (Conservatives, Labour, and the Liberal Democrats) that "appears to be breaking down" with the rise of the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP), the Greens and the Scottish National Party (SNP). [28] Newsnight [29] and The Economist [30] described the country as moving into a six-party system, with the Liberal Democrats, SNP, UKIP and Greens all being significant. Ofcom, in their role regulating election coverage in the UK, ruled that, for the general election and local elections in May 2015, the major parties in Great Britain were the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats, with UKIP a major party in England and Wales, the SNP a major party in Scotland, and Plaid Cymru (PC) in Wales, and that the Greens were not a major party. [31] The BBC's guidelines were similar but excluded UKIP from the category of "larger parties" in Great Britain, and instead stated that UKIP should be given "appropriate levels of coverage in output to which the largest parties contribute and, on some occasions, similar levels of coverage". [32] [33] Seven parties (Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, UKIP, SNP, PC and Green) participated in the election leadership debates. [34] Political parties based in Northern Ireland were ignored, despite the DUP being the fourth largest party in the UK in the previous election, in terms of seats won, and gaining the same number of seats as the Liberal Democrats in this election.

National

The Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron stood for a second term in office. David Cameron (cropped).jpg
The Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron stood for a second term in office.
Ed Miliband was leader of the opposition and leader of the Labour Party after winning a leadership election against his brother David Miliband. Ed Miliband conference speech in Manchester, September 2010.jpeg
Ed Miliband was leader of the opposition and leader of the Labour Party after winning a leadership election against his brother David Miliband.
Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats showed a great fall in the polls after entering a coalition government with the Conservatives. The Rt Hon Nick Clegg, Deputy Prime Minister, UK (8144405296).jpg
Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats showed a great fall in the polls after entering a coalition government with the Conservatives.
UK Independence Party leader Nigel Farage stood in the South Thanet constituency. Nigel Farage of UKIP.jpg
UK Independence Party leader Nigel Farage stood in the South Thanet constituency.
Nicola Sturgeon is the fifth First Minister of Scotland and the leader of the Scottish National Party, in office since 2014. She is the first woman to hold either position. Nicola Sturgeon SNP leader.jpg
Nicola Sturgeon is the fifth First Minister of Scotland and the leader of the Scottish National Party, in office since 2014. She is the first woman to hold either position.
Natalie Bennett, leader of the Green Party of England and Wales. She contested Holborn and St Pancras. Natalie Bennett-IMG 4118.jpg
Natalie Bennett, leader of the Green Party of England and Wales. She contested Holborn and St Pancras.

Several parties operate in specific regions only. The main national parties, standing for seats across all (or most of) the country, are listed below in order of seats being contested:

Minor parties

Dozens of other minor parties stood in 2015. The Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition, founded as an electoral alliance of socialist parties in 2010, had 135 candidates and was the only other party to have more than forty candidates. [35] Respect came into the election with one MP (George Galloway), who was elected at the 2012 Bradford West by-election, but stood just four candidates. The British National Party, which finished fifth with 1.9% of the vote for its 338 candidates at the 2010 general election, stood only eight candidates following a collapse in support. [36] 753 other candidates stood at the general election, including all independents, Scottish-based, Northern Ireland-based and Wales-based party candidates, and candidates from other parties. [36]

Northern Ireland

The main parties in Northern Ireland (which had 18 constituencies) described by Ofcom, [31] the BBC [37] and others, in order of seats won, were:

Smaller parties in Northern Ireland included Traditional Unionist Voice (standing in seven seats) and the Green Party in Northern Ireland (standing in five seats). In 2015 TUV and the Greens each held one seat in the Legislative Assembly. The North Down seat was retained by independent Sylvia Hermon. The Northern Ireland Conservatives and UKIP fielded candidates, whereas Labour and the Liberal Democrats do not contest elections in Northern Ireland. [40]

Scotland

Smaller parties in Scotland include the Scottish Libertarian Party, but none of the smaller parties make much of an impact in general elections in Scotland.

Wales

Wales has a number of smaller parties which, again, do not tend to make much impact in the general elections. In 2015, the Labour Party continued to dominate Welsh politics at the general elections.

Pacts and possible coalitions

Coalitions have been rare in the United Kingdom, because the first-past-the-post system has usually led to one party winning an overall majority in the Commons. However, with the outgoing Government being a coalition and with opinion polls not showing a large or consistent lead for any one party, there was much discussion about possible post-election coalitions or other arrangements, such as confidence and supply agreements. [42]

Some UK political parties that only stand in part of the country have reciprocal relationships with parties standing in other parts of the country. These include:

On 17 March 2015 the Democratic Unionist Party and the Ulster Unionist Party agreed an election pact, whereby the DUP would not stand candidates in Fermanagh and South Tyrone (where Michelle Gildernew, the Sinn Féin candidate, won by only four votes in 2010) and in Newry and Armagh. In return the UUP would stand aside in Belfast East and Belfast North. The SDLP rejected a similar pact suggested by Sinn Féin to try to ensure that an agreed nationalist would win that constituency. [46] [47] [48] The DUP also called on voters in Scotland to support whichever pro-Union candidate was best placed to beat the SNP. [49]

Candidates

The deadline for parties and individuals to file candidate nomination papers to the acting returning officer (and the deadline for candidates to withdraw) was 4 p.m. on 9 April 2015. [50] [51] [52] [53] The total number of candidates was 3,971; the second-highest number in history, slightly down from the record 4,150 candidates at the last election in 2010. [36] [54]

There were a record number of female candidates standing in terms of both absolute numbers and percentage of candidates: 1,020 (26.1%) in 2015, up from 854 (21.1%) in 2010. [36] [54] The proportion of female candidates for major parties ranged from 41% of Alliance Party candidates to 12% of UKIP candidates. [55] According to UCL's Parliamentary Candidates UK project [56] the major parties had the following percentages of black and ethnic minority candidates: the Conservatives 11%, the Liberal Democrats 10%, Labour 9%, UKIP 6%, the Greens 4%. [57] The average age of the candidates for the seven major parties was 45. [56]

The youngest candidates were all aged 18: Solomon Curtis (Labour, Wealden); Niamh McCarthy (Independent, Liverpool Wavertree); Michael Burrows (UKIP, Inverclyde); Declan Lloyd (Labour, South East Cornwall); and Laura-Jane Rossington (Communist Party, Plymouth Sutton and Devonport). [58] [59] [60] The oldest candidate was Doris Osen, 84, of the Elderly Persons' Independent Party (EPIC), who was standing in Ilford North. [59] Other candidates aged over 80 included three long-serving Labour MPs standing for re-election: Sir Gerald Kaufman (aged 84; Manchester Gorton), Dennis Skinner (aged 83; Bolsover) and David Winnick (aged 81; Walsall North).

A number of candidates—including two for Labour [61] [62] and two for UKIP [63] [64] – were suspended from their respective parties after nominations were closed. Independent candidate Ronnie Carroll died after nominations were closed. [65]

Campaign

Constitutional affairs

The Conservative manifesto committed to "a straight in-out referendum on our membership of the European Union by the end of 2017". [66] Labour did not support this, but did commit to a EU membership referendum if any further powers were transferred to the European Union. [67] The Lib Dems also supported the Labour position, but explicitly supported the UK's continuing membership of the EU.

The election was the first following the 2014 Scottish independence referendum. None of the three major party manifestos supported a second referendum and the Conservative manifesto stated that "the question of Scotland's place in the United Kingdom is now settled". In the run-up to the election, David Cameron coined the phrase "Carlisle principle" for the idea that checks and balances are required to ensure that devolution to Scotland has no adverse effects on other parts of the United Kingdom. [68] [69] The phrase references a fear that Carlisle, being the English town closest to the Scottish border, could be affected economically by preferential tax rates in Scotland.

Government finance

The deficit, who was responsible for it and plans to deal with it were a major theme of the campaign. While some smaller parties opposed austerity, [70] the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats and UKIP all supported some further cuts, albeit to different extents.

Conservative campaigning sought to blame the deficit on the previous Labour government. Labour, in return, sought to establish their fiscal responsibility. With the Conservatives also making several spending commitments (e.g. on the NHS), commentators talked of the two main parties' "political crossdressing", each trying to campaign on the other's traditional territory. [71]

Possibility of a hung Parliament

Hung Parliaments have been unusual in post-War British political history, but with the outgoing Government a coalition and opinion polls not showing a large or consistent lead for any one party, it was widely expected and predicted throughout the election campaign that no party would gain an overall majority, which could have led to a new coalition or other arrangements such as confidence and supply agreements. [29] [72] This was also associated with a rise in multi-party politics, with increased support for UKIP, the SNP and the Greens.

The question of what the different parties would do in the event of a hung result dominated much of the campaign. Smaller parties focused on the power this would bring them in negotiations; Labour and the Conservatives both insisted that they were working towards winning a majority government, while they were also reported to be preparing for the possibility of a second election in the year. [73] In practice, Labour were prepared to make a "broad" offer to the Liberal Democrats in the event of a hung Parliament. [74] Most predictions saw Labour as having more potential support in Parliament than the Conservatives, with several parties, notably the SNP, having committed to keeping out a Conservative government. [75] [76]

Conservative campaigning sought to highlight what they described as the dangers of a minority Labour administration supported by the SNP. This proved effective at dominating the agenda of the campaign [74] and at motivating voters to support them. [77] [78] [79] [80] The Conservative victory was "widely put down to the success of the anti-Labour/SNP warnings", according to a BBC article [81] and others. [82] Labour, in reaction, produced ever stronger denials that they would co-operate with the SNP after the election. [74] The Conservatives and Lib Dems both also rejected the idea of a coalition with the SNP. [83] [84] [85] This was particularly notable for Labour, to whom the SNP had previously offered support: their manifesto stated that "the SNP will never put the Tories into power. Instead, if there is an anti-Tory majority after the election, we will offer to work with other parties to keep the Tories out". [86] [87] SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon later confirmed in the Scottish leaders' debate on STV that she was prepared to "help make Ed Miliband prime minister". [88] However, on 26 April, Miliband ruled out a confidence and supply arrangement with the SNP too. [89] Miliband's comments suggested to many that he was working towards forming a minority government. [90] [91]

The Liberal Democrats said that they would talk first to whichever party won the most seats. [92] They later campaigned on being a stabilising influence should either the Conservatives or Labour fall short of a majority, with the slogan "We will bring a heart to a Conservative Government and a brain to a Labour one". [93]

Both Labour and the Liberal Democrats ruled out coalitions with UKIP. [94] Ruth Davidson, leader of the Scottish Conservatives, asked about a deal with UKIP in the Scottish leaders' debate, replied: "No deals with UKIP." She continued that her preference and the Prime Minister's preference in a hung Parliament was for a minority Conservative government. [95] UKIP said they could have supported a minority Conservative government through a confidence and supply arrangement in return for a referendum on EU membership before Christmas 2015. [96] They also spoke of the DUP joining UKIP in this arrangement. [97] UKIP and DUP said they would work together in Parliament. [98] The DUP welcomed the possibility of a hung Parliament and the influence that this would bring them. [73] The party's deputy leader, Nigel Dodds, said the party could work with the Conservatives or Labour, but that the party is "not interested in a full-blown coalition government". [99] Their leader, Peter Robinson, said that the DUP would talk first to whichever party wins the most seats. [100] The DUP said they wanted, for their support, a commitment to 2% defence spending, a referendum on EU membership, and a reversal of the under-occupation penalty. They opposed the SNP being involved in government. [101] [102] The UUP also indicated that they would not work with the SNP if it wanted another independence referendum in Scotland. [103]

The Green Party of England & Wales, Plaid Cymru and the Scottish National Party all ruled out working with the Conservatives, and agreed to work together "wherever possible" to counter austerity. [104] [105] [70] Each would also make it a condition of any agreement with Labour that Trident nuclear weapons was not replaced; the Green Party of England and Wales stated that "austerity is a red line". [106] Both Plaid Cymru and the Green Party stated a preference for a confidence and supply arrangement with Labour, rather than a coalition. [106] [107] The leader of the SDLP, Alasdair McDonnell, said: "We will be the left-of-centre backbone of a Labour administration" and that "the SDLP will categorically refuse to support David Cameron and the Conservative Party". [108] Sinn Féin reiterated their abstentionist stance. [73] In the event the Conservatives did secure an overall majority, rendering much of the speculation and positioning moot.

Television debates

Cameron's speech at Bloomberg in 2013, his promise to hold a referendum on leaving the EU helped him to win a majority at the 2015 election but would eventually lead to his resignation little more than a year later.

The first series of televised leaders' debates in the United Kingdom was held in the previous election. Following much debate and various proposals, [109] [110] a seven-way debate with the leaders of Labour, the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, UKIP, Greens, SNP and Plaid Cymru was held. [111] with a series of other debates involving some of the parties.

The campaign was notable for a reduction in the number of party posters on roadside hoardings. It was suggested that 2015 saw "the death of the campaign poster". [112]

Endorsements

Various newspapers, organisations and individuals endorsed parties or individual candidates for the election. For example, the main national newspapers gave the following endorsements:

National daily newspapers

NewspaperMain endorsementSecondary endorsement(s)NotesLink
Daily Express UK Independence Party Conservative Party Endorsed the UK Independence Party.
Daily Mail Conservative Party UK Independence Party Supported a Conservative government. Encouraged anti-Labour tactical voting.
Liberal Democrats
Daily Mirror Labour Party Liberal Democrats Endorsed a Labour government. Supported tactically voting LibDem against the Conservatives in marginal seats.
Daily Telegraph Conservative Party None
Financial Times Conservative Party Liberal Democrats Endorsed a Conservative-led coalition.
The Guardian Labour Party Green parties in the United Kingdom Endorsed the Labour Party. Also supported Green and Liberal Democrat candidates where they were the main opposition to the Conservatives.
Liberal Democrats
The Independent Liberal Democrats Conservative Party Endorsed a second term of the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition.
Metro None
The Sun Conservative Party Liberal Democrats Supported voting for the Liberal Democrats in 14 Labour/LibDem marginals.
The Times Conservative Party Liberal Democrats Endorsed a second term of Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition.

National Sunday newspapers

NewspaperParty endorsedNotesLink
Independent on Sunday NoneNewspaper stated in an editorial that it was not advising readers how to vote in 2015.
Mail on Sunday Conservative Party
The Observer Labour Party
Sunday Express UK Independence Party
Sunday Mirror Labour Party
Sunday Telegraph Conservative Party
Sunday Times Conservative Party

Media coverage

Despite speculation that the 2015 general election would be the 'social media election', traditional media, particularly broadcast media, remained more influential than new digital platforms. [113] [114] [115] A majority of the public (62%) reported that TV coverage had been most influential for informing them during the election period, especially televised debates between politicians. [116] Newspapers were next most influential, with the Daily Mail influencing people's opinions most (30%), followed by The Guardian (21%) and The Times (20%). [116] Online, major media outlets—like BBC News, newspaper websites, and Sky News—were most influential. [116] Social media was regarded less influential than radio and conversations with friends and family. [116]

During the campaign, TV news coverage was dominated by horse race journalism, focusing on the how close Labour and the Conservatives (supposedly) were according to the polls, and speculation on possible coalition outcomes. [117] This 'meta-coverage' was seen to squeeze out other content, namely policy. [117] [118] [119] Policy received less than half of election news airtime across all five main TV broadcasters (BBC, ITV, Channel 4, Channel 5, and Sky) during the first five weeks of the campaign. [117] When policy was addressed, the news agenda in both broadcast and print media followed the lead of the Conservative campaign, [118] [120] [121] [122] focusing on the economy, tax, and constitutional matters (e.g., the possibility of a Labour-SNP coalition government), [122] [120] with the economy dominating the news every week of the campaign. [121] On TV, these topics made up 43% of all election news coverage; [122] within the papers, nearly a third (31%) of all election-related articles were on the economy alone. [123] Within reporting and comment about the economy, newspapers prioritised Conservative party angles (i.e., spending cuts (1,351 articles), economic growth (921 articles), reducing the deficit (675 articles)) over Labour's (i.e., Zero-hour contracts (445 articles), mansion tax (339 articles), non-domicile status (322 articles)). [123] Less attention was given to policy areas that might have been problematic for the Conservatives, like the NHS or housing (policy topics favoured by Labour) [122] or immigration (favoured by UKIP). [120]

Reflecting on analysis carried out during the election campaign period, David Deacon of Loughborough University's Communication Research Centre said there was "aggressive partisanship [in] many section of the national press" which could be seen especially in the "Tory press". [118] Similarly, Steve Barnett, Professor of Communications at the University of Westminster, said that, while partisanship has always been part of British newspaper campaigning, in this election it was "more relentless and more one-sided" in favour of the Conservatives and against Labour and the other parties. [115] According to Bart Cammaerts of the Media and Communications Department at the London School of Economics, during the campaign "almost all newspapers were extremely pro-Conservative and rabidly anti-Labour". [124] 57.5% of the daily newspapers backed the Conservatives, 11.7% Labour, 4.9% UKIP, and 1.4% backed a continuation of the incumbent Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition government; [125] 66% of Sunday national newspapers backed the Conservatives. [126] Of newspaper front-page lead stories, the Conservatives received 80 positive splashes and 26 negative; Labour received 30 positive against 69 negative. [121] Print media was hostile towards Labour at levels "not seen since the 1992 General Election", [120] [124] [127] [128] when Neil Kinnock was "attacked hard and hit below the belt repeatedly". [124] Roy Greenslade described the newspaper coverage of Labour as "relentless ridicule". [129] Of the leader columns in The Sun 95% were anti-Labour. [128] The SNP also received substantial negative press in English newspapers: of the 59 leader columns about the SNP during the election, one was positive. [121] The Daily Mail ran a headline suggesting SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon was "the most dangerous woman in Britain" [120] [130] and, at other times, called her a "glamorous power-dressing imperatrix" and said that she "would make Hillary Clinton look human". [123] While the Scottish edition of The Sun encouraged people north of the border to vote for the SNP, the English edition encouraged people to vote for the Conservatives in order to "stop the SNP running the country". [131] The negative coverage of the SNP increased towards the end of the election campaign. [114] While TV news airtime given to quotations from politicians was more balanced between the two larger parties (Con.: 30.14%; Lab.: 27.98%), more column space in newspapers was dedicated to quotes from Conservative politicians (44.45% versus 29.01% for Labour) [114] —according to analysts, the Conservatives "benefitted from a Tory supporting press in away the other leaders did not". [114] At times, the Conservatives worked closely with newspapers to co-ordinate their news coverage. [123] For example, The Daily Telegraph printed a letter purportedly sent directly to the paper from 5,000 small business owners; the letter had been organised by the Conservatives and prepared at Conservative Campaign Headquarters. [123]

According to researchers at Cardiff University and Loughborough University, TV news agendas focused on Conservative campaign issues partly because of editorial choices to report on news originally broken in the rightwing press but not that broken in the leftwing press. [122] [118] [117] Researchers also found that most airtime was given to politicians from the Conservative party—especially in Channel 4's and Channel 5's news coverage, where they received more than a third of speaking time. [117] [132] Only ITV gave more airtime to Labour spokespeople (26.9% compared with 25.1% for the Conservatives). [132] Airtime given to the two main political leaders, Cameron (22.4%) and Miliband (20.9%), was more balanced than that given to their parties. [132]

Smaller parties—especially the SNP [132] —received unprecedented levels of media coverage because of speculation about a minority or coalition government. [120] [122] The five most prominent politicians were David Cameron (Con) (15% of TV and press appearances), Ed Miliband (Lab) (14.7%), Nick Clegg (Lib Dem) (6.5%), Nicola Sturgeon (SNP) (5.7%), and Nigel Farage (UKIP) (5.5%). [120] [122] However, according to analysts from Loughborough University Communication Research Centre, "the big winners of the media coverage were the Conservatives. They gained the most quotation time, the most strident press support, and coverage focused on their favoured issues (the economy and taxation, rather than say the NHS)". [114]

Other than politicians, 'business sources' were the most frequently quoted in the media. On the other hand, trade unions representatives, for example, received very little coverage, with business representatives receiving seven times more coverage than unions. [118] Tony Blair was also in the top ten most prominent politicians (=9), warning people about the threat of the UK leaving the EU. [120]

Opinion polling

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Conservative
Labour
Liberal Democrats
UKIP
Greens UK opinion polling 2010-2015.png
  Conservative
  Labour
  Liberal Democrats
  UKIP
  Greens

Throughout the 55th parliament of the United Kingdom, first and second place in the polls without exception alternated between the Conservatives and Labour. Labour took a lead in the polls in the second half of 2010, driven in part by a collapse in Liberal Democrat support. [133] This lead rose to approximately 10 points over the Conservative Party during 2012, whose ratings dipped alongside an increase in UKIP support. [134] UKIP passed the Liberal Democrats as the third-most popular party at the start of 2013. Following this, Labour's lead over the Conservatives began to fall as UKIP gained support from it as well, [135] and by the end of the year Labour were polling at 39%, compared to 33% for the Conservative Party and 11% for UKIP. [135]

UKIP received 26.6% of the vote at the European elections in 2014, and though their support in the polls for Westminster never reached this level, it did rise up to over 15% through that year. [136] 2014 was also marked by the Scottish independence referendum. Despite the 'No' vote winning, support for the Scottish National Party rose quickly after the referendum, and had reached 43% in Scotland by the end of the year, up 23 points from the 2010 general election, largely at the expense of Labour (16 points in Scotland) and the Liberal Democrats (13 points). [137] In Wales, where polls were less frequent, the 2012–2014 period saw a smaller decline in Labour's lead over the second-placed Conservative Party, from 28 points to 17. [138] These votes went mainly to UKIP (+8 points) and Plaid Cymru (+2 points). The rise of UKIP and SNP, alongside the smaller increases for Plaid Cymru and the Green Party (from around 2% to 6%) [136] saw the combined support of the Conservative and Labour party fall to a record low of around 65%. [139] Within this the decline came predominantly from Labour, whose lead fell to under 2 points by the end of 2014. [136] Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrat vote, which had held at about 10% since late 2010, declined further to about 8%. [136]

Early 2015 saw the Labour lead continue to fall, disappearing by the start of March. [140] Polling during the election campaign itself remained relatively static, with the Labour and Conservative parties both polling between 33 and 34% and neither able to establish a consistent lead. [141] Support for the Green Party and UKIP showed slight drops of around 1–2 points each, while Liberal Democrat support rose up to around 9%. [142] In Scotland, support for the SNP continued to grow with polling figures in late March reaching 54%, with the Labour vote continuing to decline accordingly, [143] while Labour retained their (reduced) lead in Wales, polling at 39% by the end of the campaign, to 26% for the Conservatives, 13% for Plaid Cymru, 12% for UKIP and 6% for the Liberal Democrats. [138] The final polls showed a mixture of Conservative leads, Labour leads and ties with both between 31 and 36%, UKIP on 11–16%, the Lib Dems on 8–10%, the Greens on 4–6%, and the SNP on 4–5% of the national vote. [144]

In addition to the national polls, Lord Ashcroft funded from May 2014 a series of polls in marginal constituencies, and constituencies where minor parties were expected to be significant challengers. Among other results, Lord Ashcroft's polls suggested that the growth in SNP support would translate into more than 50 seats; [145] that there was little overall pattern in Labour and Conservative Party marginals; [146] that the Green Party MP Caroline Lucas would retain her seat; [147] that both Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg and UKIP leader Nigel Farage would face very close races to be elected in their own constituencies; [148] and that Liberal Democrat MPs would enjoy an incumbency effect that would lose fewer MPs than their national polling implied. [149] As with other smaller parties, their proportion of MPs remained likely to be considerably lower than that of total, national votes cast. Several polling companies included Ashcroft's polls in their election predictions, though several of the political parties disputed his findings. [150]

Predictions one month before the vote

The first-past-the-post system used in UK general elections means that the number of seats won is not closely related to vote share. [151] Thus, several approaches were used to convert polling data and other information into seat predictions. The table below lists some of the predictions. ElectionForecast was used by Newsnight and FiveThirtyEight. May2015.com is a project run by the New Statesman magazine. [152]

Seat predictions draw from nationwide polling, polling in the constituent nations of Britain and may additionally incorporate constituency level polling, particularly the Ashcroft polls. Approaches may or may not use uniform national swing (UNS). Approaches may just use current polling, i.e. a "nowcast" (e.g. Electoral Calculus, May2015.com and The Guardian), or add in a predictive element about how polling shifts based on historical data (e.g. ElectionForecast and Elections Etc.). [153] An alternative approach is to use the wisdom of the crowd and base a prediction on betting activity: the Spreadex and Sporting Index columns below cover bets on the number of seats each party will win with the midpoint between asking and selling price, while FirstPastThePost.net aggregates the betting predictions in each individual constituency. Some predictions cover Northern Ireland, with its distinct political culture, while others do not. Parties are sorted by current number of seats in the House of Commons:

PartyElectionForecast [153]
(Newsnight Index)
as of 9 April 2015
Electoral Calculus [154]

as of 12 April 2015

Elections Etc. [155]

as of 3 April 2015

The Guardian [156]
as of 12 April 2015
May2015.com [157]
as of 12 April 2015
Spreadex [158]

as of 15 April 2015

Sporting Index [159]
as of 12 April 2015
First Past the Post [160]

as of 12 April 2015

Conservatives284278289281284.5267283
Labour274284266271277273.5272279
Liberal Democrats281722292624.52528
DUP8Included under OtherGB forecast onlyIncluded under OtherIncluded under OtherNo marketNo market8.7
SNP414849505443.54238
UKIP125434.567
SDLP3Included under OtherGB forecast onlyIncluded under OtherIncluded under OtherNo marketNo market2.7
Plaid Cymru233333.83.33
Greens111111.251.251
Other818
(including 18 NI seats)
GB forecast only, but
above may not sum to 632
due to rounding
18

(including 18 NI seats)

19

(including 18 NI
seats & Respect 1)

No MarketNo market

Respect 0.5
UUP 0.9
Speaker 1
Sinn Féin 4.5
Independent Unionist 1

Overall result (probability)Hung parliament (93%)Hung parliament (60%)Hung parliament (80%)Hung parliamentHung parliamentHung ParliamentHung parliamentHung parliament

Other predictions were published. [161] An election forecasting conference on 27 March 2015 yielded 11 forecasts of the result in Great Britain (including some included in the table above). [162] Averaging the conference predictions gives Labour 283 seats, Conservatives 279, Liberal Democrats 23, UKIP 3, SNP 41, Plaid Cymru 3 and Greens 1. [163] In that situation, no two parties (excluding a Lab-Con coalition) would have been able to form a majority without the support of a third. On 27 April, Rory Scott of the bookmaker Paddy Power predicted Conservatives 284, Labour 272, SNP 50, UKIP 3, and Greens 1. [164] LucidTalk for the Belfast Telegraph predicted for Northern Ireland: DUP 9, Sinn Féin 5, SDLP 3, Sylvia Hermon 1, with the only seat change being the DUP gaining Belfast East from Alliance. [165] [166]

Final predictions before the vote

Percentage shares of votes, as predicted in the first week of May:

PartyBMG [167] TNS-BNRB [168] Opinium [169] ICM [144] YouGov [170] Ipsos MORI [171] Ashcroft [172] Comres [173] Panelbase [174] Populus [175] Survation [176] Average
Conservative33.733353434363335313331.433.6
Labour33.732343534353334333331.433.5
UKIP1214121112111112161415.712.7
Liberal Democrats108891081098109.610.0
Green46644564554.84.5
SNP44455 PC 555544.74.6
Other2.621210.532221.91.8
LeadTieCon +1Con +1Lab +1TieCon +1TieCon +1Lab +2TieTieTie
PC Includes Plaid Cymru

Seats predicted on 7 May:

PartyElectionForecast [153] [177]
(Newsnight Index)
Electoral Calculus [154]
Elections Etc. [178]
The Guardian [179]
May2015.com [157]
Spreadex [180] Sporting Index [159]
First Past the Post [160]
Mean
Conservatives278280285273288286279
Labour267274262273268266269270269.0
SNP535253525648464951.6
Liberal Democrats272125272825.526.52525.6
DUP8Included under OtherGB forecast onlyIncluded under OtherIncluded under OtherNo marketNo market8.7
UKIP113323.253.342.5
SDLP3Included under OtherGB forecast onlyIncluded under OtherIncluded under OtherNo marketNo market2.7
Plaid Cymru433333.83.353.13.2
Greens111111.751.150.71.0
OtherSinn Féin 5
UUP 1
Sylvia Hermon 1
Speaker 1
18 (including 18 NI seats)1, although its GB forecast only,
18 NI seats
18 (including 18 NI seats)19 (including 18 NI seats
& Respect 1)
No marketNo marketSinn Féin 4.7
Hermon 1
Speaker 1
UUP 1
Respect 0.6
Overall result (probability)Hung parliament (100%[ citation needed ])Hung parliament (92%)Hung parliament (91%)Hung parliamentHung parliamentHung parliamentHung parliamentHung parliamentHung parliament

Exit poll

An exit poll, collected by Ipsos MORI and GfK on behalf of the BBC, ITN and Sky News, was published at 10 pm at the end of voting: [181]

PartiesSeatsChange
Conservative Party 316Increase2.svg 10
Labour Party 239Decrease2.svg 19
Scottish National Party 58Increase2.svg 52
Liberal Democrats 10Decrease2.svg 47
UK Independence Party 2Increase2.svg 2
Green Party 2Increase2.svg 1
Others23N/A
Conservatives 10 short of majority

This predicted the Conservatives to be 10 seats short of an absolute majority, although with the 5 predicted Sinn Féin MPs not taking their seats, it was likely to be enough to govern. (In the event, Michelle Gildernew lost her seat, reducing the number of Sinn Féin MPs to 4.) [182]

The exit poll was markedly different from the pre-election opinion polls, [183] which had been fairly consistent; this led many pundits and MPs to speculate that the exit poll was inaccurate, and that the final result would have the two main parties closer to each other. Former Liberal Democrat leader Paddy Ashdown vowed to "eat his hat" and former Labour "spin doctor" Alastair Campbell promised to "eat his kilt" if the exit poll, which predicted huge losses for their respective parties, was right. [184]

As it turned out, the results were even more favourable to the Conservatives than the poll predicted, with the Conservatives obtaining 330 seats, an absolute majority. [185] Ashdown and Campbell were presented with hat- and kilt-shaped cakes (labelled "eat me") on BBC Question Time on 8 May. [184]

Opinion polling inaccuracies and scrutiny

Polling results for the 2015 UK general election, compared to the actual result UK Polling results vs actual.png
Polling results for the 2015 UK general election, compared to the actual result

With the eventual outcome in terms of both votes and seats varying substantially from the bulk of opinion polls released in the final months before the election, the polling industry received criticism for their inability to predict what was a surprisingly clear Conservative victory. Several theories have been put forward to explain the inaccuracy of the pollsters. One theory was that there had simply been a very late swing to the Conservatives, with the polling company Survation claiming that 13% of voters made up their minds in the final days and 17% on the day of the election. [186] The company also claimed that a poll they carried out a day before the election gave the Conservatives 37% and Labour 31%, though they said they did not release the poll (commissioned by the Daily Mirror) on the concern that it was too much of an outlier with other poll results. [187]

However, it was reported that pollsters had in fact picked up a late swing to Labour immediately prior to polling day, not the Conservatives. [188] It was reported after the election that private pollsters working for the two largest parties actually gathered more accurate results, with Labour's pollster James Morris claiming that the issue was largely to do with surveying technique. [189] Morris claimed that telephone polls that immediately asked for voting intentions tended to get a high "Don't know" or anti-government reaction, whereas longer telephone conversations conducted by private polls that collected other information such as views on the leaders' performances placed voters in a much better mode to give their true voting intentions.[ citation needed ] Another theory was the issue of 'shy Tories' not wanting to openly declare their intention to vote Conservative to pollsters. [190] A final theory, put forward after the election, was the 'Lazy Labour' factor, which claimed that Labour voters tend to not vote on polling day whereas Conservative voters have a much higher turnout. [191]

The British Polling Council announced an inquiry into the substantial variance between the opinion polls and the actual election result. [192] [193] The inquiry published preliminary findings in January 2016, concluding that "the ways in which polling samples are constructed was the primary cause of the polling miss". [194] Their final report was published in March 2016. [195]

The British Election Study team have suggested that weighting error appears to be the cause. [196]

Results

33023256824
ConservativeLabourSNPLD
2015 UK parliament.svg

After all 650 constituencies had been declared, the results were: [197]

PartyLeaderMPsVotes
Of totalOf total
Conservative Party David Cameron 33050.8%
330 / 650
11,299,60936.8%
Labour Party Ed Miliband 23235.7%
232 / 650
9,347,27330.4%
Scottish National Party Nicola Sturgeon 568.6%
56 / 650
1,454,4364.7%
Liberal Democrats Nick Clegg 81.2%
8 / 650
2,415,9167.9%
Democratic Unionist Party Peter Robinson 81.2%
8 / 650
184,2600.6%
Sinn Féin Gerry Adams 40.6%
4 / 650
176,2320.6%
Plaid Cymru Leanne Wood 30.5%
3 / 650
181,7040.6%
Social Democratic & Labour Party Alasdair McDonnell 30.5%
3 / 650
99,8090.3%
Ulster Unionist Party Mike Nesbitt 20.3%
2 / 650
114,9350.4%
UK Independence Party Nigel Farage 1 0.2%
1 / 650
3,881,09912.6%
Green Party of England and Wales Natalie Bennett 1 0.2%
1 / 650
1,111,6033.8%
Speaker John Bercow 1 0.2%
1 / 650
34,6170.1% [198]
Independent Unionist Sylvia Hermon 1 0.2%
1 / 650
17,6890.06% [199]

The following table shows final election results as reported by BBC News [200] and The Guardian . [201]

e    d  Summary [lower-alpha 1] of the May 2015 House of Commons of the United Kingdom results
House of Commons 2015 elections.svg
Political partyLeaderMPsVotes
Candidates [202] TotalGainedLostNetOf total (%)TotalOf total (%)Change [lower-alpha 2] (%)
Conservative [lower-alpha 3] David Cameron 6473303511+2450.811,299,60936.8+0.7
Labour Ed Miliband 6312322248−2635.79,347,27330.4+1.5
UKIP Nigel Farage 624 1 10+10.23,881,09912.6+9.5
Liberal Democrats Nick Clegg 6318049−491.22,415,9167.9−15.1
SNP Nicola Sturgeon 5956500+508.61,454,4364.7+3.1
Green Party of England and Wales Natalie Bennett 538 1 0000.21,111,6033.8+2.7
DUP Peter Robinson 1681101.2184,2600.60.0
Plaid Cymru Leanne Wood 4030000.5181,7040.60.0
Sinn Féin Gerry Adams 18401−10.6176,2320.60.0
UUP Mike Nesbitt 15220+20.3114,9350.4N/A [lower-alpha 4]
Independent N/A170 1 0000.2101,8970.3N/A
SDLP Alasdair McDonnell 1830000.599,8090.30.0
Alliance David Ford 18001−1061,5560.2+0.1
Scottish Green Patrick Harvie / Maggie Chapman 320000039,2050.10.0
TUSC Dave Nellist 1280000036,4900.1+0.1
Speaker John Bercow 1 1 0000.234,6170.10.0
National Health Action [lower-alpha 5] Richard Taylor & Clive Peedell 130000012,9990.10.0
TUV Jim Allister 70000016,5380.10.0
Respect George Galloway 4000009,9890.0−0.1
Green (NI) Steven Agnew 5000006,8220.00.0
CISTA Paul Birch34000006,5660.0New
People Before Profit Collective1000006,9780.00.0
Yorkshire First Richard Carter14000006,8110.0New
English Democrat Robin Tilbrook 35000006,5310.0−0.2
Mebyon Kernow Dick Cole 6000005,6750.00.0
Lincolnshire Independent Marianne Overton5000005,4070.00.0
Liberal Steve Radford 4000004,4800.00.0
Monster Raving Loony Alan "Howling Laud" Hope 27000003,8980.00.0
Independent Save Withybush Save LivesChris Overton 1 000003,7290.0New
Socialist Labour Arthur Scargill 8000003,4810.00.0
CPA Sidney Cordle17000003,2600.00.0
Christian [lower-alpha 6] Jeff Green9000003,2050.0−0.1
No description [lower-alpha 7] N/A000003,0120.0N/A
Workers' Party John Lowry 5000002,7240.00.0
North East Hilton Dawson 4000002,1380.00.0
Poole People Mike Howell 1 000001,7660.0New
BNP Adam Walker 8000001,6670.0−1.9
Residents for Uttlesford John Lodge 1 000001,6580.0New
Rochdale First PartyFarooq Ahmed 1 000001,5350.0New
Communist Robert David Griffiths 9000001,2290.0New
Pirate Laurence Kaye6000001,1300.00.0
National Front Kevin Bryan7000001,1140.00.0
Communities United Kamran Malik5000001,1020.0New
Reality Mark "Bez" Berry 3000001,0290.0New
The Southport PartyDavid Cobham 1 000009920.0New
All People's Party Prem Goyal4000009810.0New
Peace John Morris4000009570.0New
Bournemouth Independent AllianceDavid Ross 1 000009030.0New
Socialist (GB) Collective10000008990.0New
Scottish Socialist Executive Committee4000008750.00.0
Alliance for Green SocialismMike Davies4000008520.00.0
Your Vote Could Save Our HospitalSandra Allison 1 000008490.0New
Wigan IndependentsGareth Fairhurst 1 000007680.0New
Animal Welfare Vanessa Hudson4000007360.00.0
Something New James Smith2000006950.0New
ConsensusHelen Tyrer 1 000006370.0New
National Liberal National Council2000006270.0New
Independents Against Social InjusticeSteve Walmsley1000006030.0New
Independence from Europe Mike Nattrass 5000005780.0New
Whig Waleed Ghani 4000005610.0New
Guildford Greenbelt Group Susan Parker 1 000005380.0New
Class War Ian Bone 7000005260.0New
Above and Beyond Mark Flanagan5000005220.0New
Northern Mark Dawson5000005060.0New
Workers Revolutionary Sheila Torrance7000004880.00.0
Left Unity Kate Hudson 3000004550.0New
Liberty GB Paul Weston 3000004180.0New
People FirstCollective 1 000004070.0New
Other parties [lower-alpha 8] N/A0000065,5370.0N/A
Total3,92165030,697,525
  1. 66 parties are grouped together as 'other parties'. None of those parties contested more than 2 constituencies, or gained more than 300 votes
  2. This column shows the change in vote share percentage from the 2010 general election to the 2015 general election. It does not account for by-elections.
  3. BBC News includes the Speaker of the House of Commons, John Bercow, in the MP tally and the vote tally for the Conservatives. See About these results, BBC News (30 April 2015). In this table, however, the speaker (who usually does not vote in the Commons) is listed separately, and has been removed from the Conservative tally.
  4. The UUP did not run itself in 2010; instead, it ran candidates under the Ulster Conservatives and Unionists banner.
  5. BBC News lists the National Health Action Party together with Independent Community and Health Concern (formerly known as Independent Kidderminster Hospital and Health Concern), which is affiliated with the larger party, for a total of 20,210 votes. The Guardian lists each party separately. Health Concern received 7,211 of the votes attributed to the National Health Action Party.
  6. The BBC groups together the votes under the Scottish Christian Party (1,467 votes); Christian Party (1,040 votes); and Christian (698 votes) labels, for a total of 3,205 votes. The Guardian lists these designations separately.
  7. Candidates who do not specify a party or Independent are categorised as No description
  8. 66 parties, none of which contested more than 2 constituencies, each with under 300 votes
    Vote share
    Conservative
    36.8%
    Labour
    30.4%
    UK Independence
    12.6%
    Liberal Democrat
    7.9%
    Scottish National
    4.7%
    Green
    3.8%
    Democratic Unionist
    0.6%
    Sinn Fein
    0.6%
    Plaid Cymru
    0.4%
    UUP
    0.4%
    SDLP
    0.3%
    Others
    2.1%
    Parliamentary seats
    Conservative
    50.8%
    Labour
    35.7%
    Scottish National
    8.6%
    Liberal Democrat
    1.2%
    Democratic Unionist
    1.2%
    Sinn Fein
    0.6%
    Plaid Cymru
    0.5%
    SDLP
    0.5%
    UUP
    0.3%
    UK Independence
    0.2%
    Green
    0.2%
    Independent
    0.2%
    Speaker
    0.2%


    The disproportionality of parliament in the 2015 election was 15.04 according to the Gallagher Index, mainly between the UKIP and Conservative Parties. 2015 UK General Election Gallagher Index.png
    The disproportionality of parliament in the 2015 election was 15.04 according to the Gallagher Index, mainly between the UKIP and Conservative Parties.

    Geographic voting distribution

    One result of the 2015 general election was that a different political party won the popular vote in each of the countries of the United Kingdom. [203] This was reflected in terms of MPs elected: The Conservatives won in England with 319 MPs out of 533 constituencies, [204] the SNP won in Scotland with 56 out of 59, [205] Labour won in Wales with 25 out of 40, [206] and the Democratic Unionist Party won in Northern Ireland with 8 out of 18. [207]

    Outcome

    Conservative--70-80%
Conservative--60-70%
Conservative--50-60%
Conservative--40-50%
Conservative--<40%
Labour--80-85%
Labour--70-80%
Labour--60-70%
Labour--50-60%
Labour--40-50%
Labour--<40% 2015 party vote share by constituency.png

    Despite most opinion polls predicting that the Conservatives and Labour were neck and neck, the Conservatives secured a surprise victory after having won a clear lead over their rivals and incumbent Prime Minister David Cameron was able to form a majority single-party government with a working majority of 12 (in practice increased to 15 due to Sinn Féin's four MPs' abstention). Thus the result bore resemblance to 1992. [208] The Conservatives gained 38 seats while losing 10, all to Labour; Employment Minister Esther McVey, in Wirral West, was the most senior Conservative to lose her seat. Cameron became the first Prime Minister since Lord Salisbury in 1900 to increase his popular vote share after a full term, and is sometimes credited as being the only Prime Minister other than Margaret Thatcher (in 1983) to be re-elected with a greater number of seats for his party after a 'full term' [n 4] . [209]

    A map of the results, showing each constituency as a hexagon of equal size, with the black lines showing separations in regions 2015 UK general election constituency map.svg
    A map of the results, showing each constituency as a hexagon of equal size, with the black lines showing separations in regions

    The Labour Party polled below expectations, winning 30.4% of the vote and 232 seats, 24 fewer than its previous result in 2010—even though in 222 constituencies there was a Conservative-to-Labour swing, as against 151 constituencies where there was a Labour-to-Conservative swing. [210] Its net loss of seats were mainly a result of its resounding defeat in Scotland, where the Scottish National Party took 40 of Labour's 41 seats, unseating key politicians such as shadow Foreign Secretary Douglas Alexander and Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy. Labour gained some seats in London and other major cities, but lost a further nine seats to the Conservatives, recording its lowest share of the seats since the 1987 general election. [211] Ed Miliband subsequently tendered his resignation as Labour leader.

    The Scottish National Party had a stunning election, rising from just 6 seats to 56 – winning all but 3 of the constituencies in Scotland and securing 50% of the popular vote in Scotland. [205] They recorded a number of record breaking swings of over 30% including the new record of 39.3% in Glasgow North East. They also won the seat of former Prime Minister, Gordon Brown, overturning a majority of 23,009 to win by a majority of 9,974 votes and saw Mhairi Black, then a 20-year-old student, defeat Labour's Shadow Foreign Secretary Douglas Alexander with a swing of 26.9%.

    The Liberal Democrats, who had been in government as coalition partners, suffered the worst defeat they or the previous Liberal Party had suffered since the 1970 general election. [212] Winning just eight seats, the Liberal Democrats lost their position as the UK's third party and found themselves tied in fourth place with the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland in the House of Commons, with Nick Clegg being one of the few MPs from his party to retain his seat. The Liberal Democrats gained no seats, while losing 49 in the process—of them, 27 to the Conservatives, 12 to Labour, and 10 to the SNP. The party also lost their deposit in 341 seats, the same number as in every general election from 1979 to 2010 combined.

    The UK Independence Party (UKIP) was only able to hold one of its two seats, Clacton, gaining no new ones despite increasing its vote share to 12.9% (the third-highest share overall). Party leader Nigel Farage, having failed to win the constituency of South Thanet, tendered his resignation, although this was rejected by his party's executive council and he stayed on as leader.

    In Northern Ireland, the Ulster Unionist Party returned to the Commons with two MPs after a five-year absence, gaining one seat from the Democratic Unionist Party and one from Sinn Féin, while the Alliance Party lost its only Commons seat to the DUP, despite an increase in total vote share. [213]

    Voter demographics

    Ipsos MORI

    Ipsos MORI polling after the election suggested the following demographic breakdown:

    The 2015 UK General Election vote in Great Britain [214]
    Social group Con Lab UKIP Lib Dem Green OthersLead
    Total vote3831138467
    Gender
    Male3830148468
    Female3733128464
    Age
    18–242743858916
    25–343336107773
    35–4435351010460
    45–543633148453
    55–643731149276
    65+47231782324
    Men by Age
    18–24324174889
    25–343532119673
    35–543832128466
    55+40251982615
    Women by Age
    18–2424441059820
    25–34314995879
    35–543235129483
    55+45271392418
    Social class
    AB45268124519
    C141291184712
    C23232196470
    DE27411753714
    Men by social class
    AB462510113521
    C142271284715
    C23032215482
    DE26401843914
    Women by social class
    AB44286125516
    C141311085510
    C23433177451
    DE28421653614
    Housing tenure
    Owned46221592624
    Mortgage3931109388
    Social renter18501833832
    Private renter28391169711
    Ethnic group
    White39281484711
    BME2365243344

    YouGov

    YouGov polling after the election suggested the following demographic breakdown:

    The 2015 UK General Election vote in Great Britain [215] [216]
    Social group Con Lab UKIP Lib Dem SNP Green Plaid Others
    Total vote38311385412
    Gender
    Male37291585412
    Female38331284402
    Age
    18–293236995712
    30–3936341085502
    40–4933331475412
    50–5936321675312
    60+45251673202
    Age and Gender
    18–29 Male343110105612
    30–39 Male38311185511
    40–49 Male34311676412
    50–59 Male33311876312
    60+ Male44241874201
    18–29 Female2941784812
    30–39 Female3337985502
    40–49 Female33361275412
    50–59 Female38321474302
    60+ Female46251483202
    Social Class
    AB44289104412
    C138301195512
    C236311765312
    DE29371865302
    Highest Educational Level
    GCSE or Lower38302053202
    A-Level 37311186512
    University35346115612
    Other41271385302
    DK/Refused32331846304
    Housing Status
    Own Outright47231583201
    Mortgage42291284302
    Social Housing 20451857301
    Private Rented34321294701
    Don't Know31381084603
    Work Sector
    Private Sector43261474402
    Public Sector33361195412
    Household Income
    Under £20,00029361775412
    £20,000-£39,99937321484401
    £40,000-£69,99942291095411
    £70,000+51237104301
    Newspaper
    Daily Express 51132752101
    Daily Mail 59141951102
    Daily Mirror / Daily Record 1167956201
    Daily Star 25412633102
    The Sun 47241944101
    The Daily Telegraph 6981280101
    The Guardian 66211131412
    The Independent 174741631111
    The Times 55206131312

    Gender

    The election led to an increase in the number of female MPs, to 191 (29% of the total, including 99 Labour; 68 Conservative; 20 SNP; 4 other) from 147 (23% of the total, including 87 Labour; 47 Conservative; 7 Liberal Democrat; 1 SNP; 5 other). As before the election, the region with the largest proportion of women MPs was North East England. [217]

    Votes, of total, by party

       Conservative (36.8%)
       Labour (30.4%)
       UKIP (12.6%)
       Liberal Democrats (7.9%)
       SNP (4.7%)
       Green (3.8%)
       DUP (0.6%)
       Plaid Cymru (0.6%)
       Sinn Féin (0.6%)
       UUP (0.4%)
       SDLP (0.3%)
      Other (1.3%)

    MPs, of total, by party

       Conservative (50.8%)
       Labour (35.7%)
       SNP (8.6%)
       Liberal Democrats (1.2%)
       DUP (1.2%)
       Sinn Féin (0.6%)
       Plaid Cymru (0.5%)
       UUP (0.3%)
       Green (0.2%)
      Speaker (0.2%)
       UKIP (0.2%)

    Open seats changing hands

    PartyCandidateIncumbentConstituencyDefeated byParty
    Labour Richard Baker Frank Doran Aberdeen North Kirsty Blackman SNP
    Liberal Democrats Steve Bradley Don Foster Bath Ben Howlett Conservative
    Liberal Democrats Julie Pörksen Alan Beith Berwick-upon-Tweed Anne-Marie Trevelyan Conservative
    Liberal Democrats Lauren Keith Sarah Teather Brent Central Dawn Butler Labour
    Labour Michael Marra Jim McGovern Dundee West Chris Law SNP
    Labour Ricky Henderson Alistair Darling Edinburgh South West Joanna Cherry SNP
    Independent Karen Whitefield (Lab) Eric Joyce (elected as Labour) [n 5] Falkirk John McNally SNP
    Labour Melanie Ward Lindsay Roy Glenrothes Peter Grant SNP
    Liberal Democrats Christine Jardine Malcolm Bruce Gordon Alex Salmond SNP
    Labour Liz Evans Martin Caton Gower Byron Davies Conservative
    Liberal Democrats Lisa Smart Andrew Stunell Hazel Grove William Wragg Conservative
    Conservative Graham Cox Mike Weatherley Hove Peter Kyle Labour
    Labour Kenny Selbie Gordon Brown Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Roger Mullin SNP
    Liberal Democrats Vikki Slade Annette Brooke Mid Dorset and North Poole Michael Tomlinson Conservative
    Labour Kenny Young David Hamilton Midlothian Owen Thompson SNP
    Liberal Democrats Tim Brett Menzies Campbell North East Fife Stephen Gethins SNP
    Liberal Democrats Josh Mason Ian Swales Redcar Anna Turley Labour Co-operative
    Liberal Democrats David Rendel David Heath Somerton and Frome David Warburton Conservative
    Labour Rowenna Davis John Denham Southampton Itchen Royston Smith Conservative
    Labour Johanna Boyd Anne McGuire Stirling Steven Paterson SNP
    Liberal Democrats Rachel Gilmour Jeremy Browne Taunton Deane Rebecca Pow Conservative

    Seats which changed allegiance

    111 seats changed hands compared to the result in 2010 plus three by-election gains reverted to the party that won the seat at the last general election in 2010.

    General election records broken in 2015

    Youngest elected MP

    Largest swing

    Lowest winning vote share

    Aftermath

    Resignations

    On 8 May, three party leaders announced their resignations within an hour of each other: [222] Ed Miliband (Labour) and Nick Clegg (Liberal Democrat) resigned due to their parties' worse-than-expected results in the election, although both had been re-elected to their seats in Parliament. [223] [224] [225] [226] Nigel Farage (UKIP) offered his resignation because he had failed to be elected as MP for Thanet South, but said he might re-stand in the resulting leadership election. However, on 11 May, the UKIP executive rejected his resignation on the grounds that the election campaign had been "a great success", [227] and Farage agreed to continue as party leader. [228]

    Alan Sugar, a Labour peer in the House of Lords, also announced his resignation from the Labour Party for running what he perceived to be an anti-business campaign. [229]

    In response to Labour's poor performance in Scotland, Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy initially resisted calls for his resignation by other senior party members. Despite surviving a no-confidence vote by 17–14 from the party's national executive, Murphy announced he would step down as leader on or by 16 May. [230]

    Financial markets

    Financial markets reacted positively to the result, with the pound sterling rising against the Euro and US dollar when the exit poll was published, and the FTSE 100 stock market index rising 2.3% on 8 May. The BBC reported: "Bank shares saw some of the biggest gains, on hopes that the sector will not see any further rises in levies. Shares in Lloyds Banking Group rose 5.75% while Barclays was 3.7% higher", adding: "Energy firms also saw their share prices rise, as Labour had wanted a price freeze and more powers for the energy regulator. British Gas owner Centrica rose 8.1% and SSE shares were up 5.3%." BBC economics editor Robert Peston noted: "To state the obvious, investors love the Tories' general election victory. There are a few reasons. One (no surprise here) is that Labour's threat of breaking up banks and imposing energy price caps has been lifted. Second is that investors have been discounting days and weeks of wrangling after polling day over who would form the government – and so they are semi-euphoric that we already know who's in charge. Third, many investors tend to be economically Conservative and instinctively Conservative." [231]

    Electoral reform

    The disparity between the numbers of votes and the number of seats obtained by the smaller parties gave rise to increased calls for replacement of the 'first-past-the-post' voting system with a more proportional system. For example, UKIP had 3.9 million votes per seat, whereas SNP had just 26,000 votes per seat, about 150 times greater representation for each vote cast. It is worth noting, however, that UKIP stood in 10 times as many seats as the SNP. Noting that UKIP's 13% share of the overall votes cast had resulted in the election of just one MP, Nigel Farage argued that the UK's voting system needed reforming, saying: "Personally, I think the first-past-the-post system is bankrupt." [232]

    Re-elected Green Party MP Caroline Lucas agreed, saying: "The political system in this country is broken [...] It's ever clearer tonight that the time for electoral reform is long overdue, and it's only proportional representation that will deliver a Parliament that is truly legitimate and better reflects the people it is meant to represent." [233]

    Daily Telegraph investigation of abuse of Wikipedia

    Following the election, The Daily Telegraph detailed changes to Wikipedia pages made from computers with IP addresses inside Parliament raising suspicion that "MPs or their political parties deliberately hid information from the public online to make candidates appear more electable to voters" and a deliberate attempt to hide embarrassing information from the electorate. [234]

    Telegraph Media Group fined

    On 21 December 2015, the UK Information Commissioner's Office fined the Telegraph Media Group £30,000 for sending 'hundreds of thousands of emails on the day of the general election urging readers to vote Conservative ... in a letter from Daily Telegraph editor Chris Evans, attached to the paper's usual morning e-bulletin'. The ICO concluded that subscribers had not expressed their consent to receive this kind of direct marketing. [235]

    Election petition

    Four electors from Orkney and Shetland lodged an election petition on 29 May 2015 attempting to unseat Alistair Carmichael and force a by-election [236] [237] over what became known as 'Frenchgate'. [238] The issue centred around the leaking of a memo from the Scotland Office about comments allegedly made by the French ambassador Sylvie Bermann about Nicola Sturgeon, claiming that Sturgeon had privately stated she would "rather see David Cameron remain as PM", in contrast to her publicly stated opposition to a Conservative government. [239] The veracity of the memo was quickly denied by the French ambassador, French consul general and Sturgeon. [240] At the time of the leak, Carmichael denied all knowledge of the leaking of the memo in a television interview with Channel 4 News . [241] but after the election Carmichael accepted the contents of the memo were incorrect, admitted that he had lied, and that he had authorised the leaking of the inaccurate memo to the media after a Cabinet Office enquiry identified Carmichael's role in the leak. On 9 December, an Election Court decided that although he had told a "blatant lie" in a TV interview, it had not been proven beyond reasonable doubt that he had committed an "illegal practice" under the Representation of the People Act [242] and he was allowed to retain his seat. [243]

    Party election spending investigations

    At national party level, the Electoral Commission fined the three largest parties for breaches of spending regulations, levying the highest fines since its foundation: [244] £20,000 for Labour in October 2016, [245] £20,000 for the Liberal Democrats in December 2016, [246] and £70,000 for the Conservative Party in March 2017. [247] [244]

    The higher fine for the Conservatives reflected both the extent of the wrongdoing (which extended to the 2014 parliamentary by-elections in Clacton, Newark and Rochester and Strood) and 'the unreasonable uncooperative conduct by the Party'. [248] [244] The commission also found that the Party Treasurer, Simon Day, may not have fulfilled his obligations under the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000 and referred him for investigation to the Metropolitan Police Service. [249]

    At constituency level, related alleged breaches of spending regulations led to 'unprecedented' [247] police investigations for possible criminal conduct of between 20 and 30 Conservative Party MPs. On 9 May 2017, the Crown Prosecution service decided not to prosecute the vast majority of suspects, saying that "in order to bring a charge, it must be proved that a suspect knew the return was inaccurate and acted dishonestly in signing the declaration. Although there is evidence to suggest the returns may have been inaccurate, there is insufficient evidence to prove to the criminal standard that any candidate or agent was dishonest." [250] On 2 June 2017, charges were brought under the Representation of the People Act 1983 against Craig Mackinlay, who was elected Conservative MP for South Thanet in 2015, his agent Nathan Gray, and a party activist, Marion Little. [251] [252] Appearing at Westminster Magistrates' Court on 4 July 2017, the three pleased not guilty and were released on unconditional bail pending an appearance at Southwark Crown Court on 1 August 2017. [253] [254] The investigation of Party Treasurer Simon Day remained ongoing. [255]

    In 2016–18, the European Parliament found that UKIP had unlawfully spent over €173,000 of EU funding on the party's 2015 UK election campaign, via the Alliance for Direct Democracy in Europe and the affiliated Institute for Direct Democracy. The Parliament required the repayment of the mis-spent funds and denied the organisations some other funding. [256] [257] [258] It also found that UKIP MEPs had unlawfully spent EU money on other assistance for national campaigning purposes during 2014-16 and docked their salaries to recoup the mis-spent funds. [259] [260] [261]

    See also

    Footnotes

    1. SNP party leader Nicola Sturgeon, a Member of the Scottish Parliament and First Minister of Scotland, participated in some of the main UK-wide televised debates, but did not stand for a Commons seat at this election. Angus Robertson, MP for Moray at the time, was the leader of the SNP delegation to the House of Commons.
    2. After nominations had closed and ballot papers were printed, the Labour candidate in Banff and Buchan, Sumon Hoque, was suspended from the Labour Party when he was charged with multiple driving offences, and the Labour candidate in Wellingborough, Richard Garvie, was also suspended after a conviction for fraud
    3. After nominations had closed and ballot papers were printed, two UKIP candidates were suspended from the party for offensive comments.
    4. In the 20th century so few Parliaments lasted the full five-year term that some commentators regarded four years as being a 'full term', thus calling the 1979–83 Parliament a 'full term'
    5. Joyce was a member of the Labour Party until his resignation from the party in 2012 in the aftermath of an assault.

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